An Active Atlantic Hurricane Season Still Predicted by NOAA, CSU, and TSR

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:07 PM GMT on August 09, 2013

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As we stand on the cusp of the peak part of hurricane season, all of the major groups that perform long-range seasonal hurricane forecasts are still calling for an active 2013 Atlantic hurricane season. NOAA forecasts an above-normal and possibly very active Atlantic hurricane season in 2013, in their August 8 outlook. They give a 70% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of an near-normal season, and 5% chance of a below-normal season. They predict a 70% chance that there will be 13 - 19 named storms, 6 - 9 hurricanes, and 3 - 5 major hurricanes, with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 120% - 190% of the median. If we take the midpoint of these numbers, NOAA is calling for 16 named storms, 7.5 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 155% of normal. This is well above the 1981 - 2010 average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Hurricane seasons during the active hurricane period 1995 - 2012 have averaged 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 151% of the median.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Dorian on July 25, 2013, when the storm reached peak intensity--sustained winds of 60 mph. Formation of early-season tropical storms like Chantal and Dorian in June and July in the deep tropics is usually a harbinger of an active Atlantic hurricane season. Image credit: NASA.

NOAA cites five main reasons to expect an active remainder of hurricane season:

1) Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are above average in the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes, from the coast of Africa to the Caribbean. As of August 9, SST were 0.4°C (0.8°F) above average.
2) Trade winds are weaker than average across the MDR, which has caused the African Monsoon to grow wetter and stronger, the amount of spin over the MDR to increase, and the amount of vertical wind shear to decrease.
3) No El Niño event is present or expected this fall.
4) There have been two early-season tropical storms in the deep tropics (Tropical Storms Chantal and Dorian), which is generally a harbinger of an above-normal season.
5) We are in an active hurricane period that began in 1995.

Colorado State predicts a much above-average hurricane season
A much above-average Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2013, according to the seasonal hurricane forecast issued August 2 by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). The CSU team is calling for 18 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 142. The forecast calls for an above-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (40% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (40% chance, 30% chance is average). The risk of a major hurricane in the Caribbean is also above average, at 53% (42% is average.)

Analogue years
The CSU team picked five previous years when atmospheric and oceanic conditions were similar to what we are seeing this year: cool neutral ENSO conditions and slightly above-average tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures. Those five years were 2008, a very active year with 16 named storms and 4 major hurricanes--Gustav, Ike, Paloma, and Omar; 2007, an active year with 15 named storms and two Category 5 storms--Dean and Felix; 1996, an above average year with 13 named storms and 6 major hurricanes--Edouard, Hortense, Fran, Bertha, Isidore, and Lili; 1966, an average year with 11 named storms and 3 major hurricanes--Inez, Alma, and Faith; and 1952, a below average year with 7 named storms and 3 major hurricanes. The average activity during these five analogue years was 12.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes, and 3.8 major hurricanes.

TSR predicts an above-average hurricane season: 14.8 named storms
The August 6 forecast for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season made by British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) calls for an active season with 14.8 named storms, 6.9 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 121. The long-term averages for the past 63 years are 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an ACE of 103. TSR rates their skill level as good for these August forecasts--47% - 59% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. TSR predicts a 58% chance that U.S. land falling activity will be above average, a 26% chance it will be near average, and a 16% chance it will be below average. They project that 4 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.8 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2012 climatology are 3.1 named storms and 1.4 hurricanes. They rate their skill at making these August forecasts for U.S. landfalls just 9% - 18% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 1.4 named storms, 0.6 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

TSR's two predictors for their statistical model are the forecast July - September trade wind speed over the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic, and the forecast August - September 2013 sea surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic. Their model is calling for warmer than average SSTs and near average trade winds during these periods, and both of these factors should act to increase hurricane and tropical storm activity.


Figure 2. Comparison of the percent improvement over climatology for May and August seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 1999-2009 (May) and 1998-2009 (August), using the Mean Squared Error. Image credit: Verification of 12 years of NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts, National Hurricane Center.


Figure 3. Comparison of the percent improvement in mean square error over climatology for seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 2003-2012, using the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS). The figure shows the results using two different climatologies: a fixed 50-year (1950 - 1999) climatology, and a 2003 - 2012 climatology. Skill is poor for forecasts issued in December and April, moderate for June forecasts, and good for August forecasts. Image credit: Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.

FSU predicts an above-average hurricane season: 15 named storms
The Florida State University (FSU) Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) issued their fifth annual Atlantic hurricane season forecast on May 30, calling for a 70% probability of 12 - 17 named storms and 5 - 10 hurricanes. The mid-point forecast is for 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of 135. The scientists use a numerical atmospheric model developed at COAPS to understand seasonal predictability of hurricane activity. The model is one of only a handful of numerical models in the world being used to study seasonal hurricane activity and is different from the statistical methods used by other seasonal hurricane forecasters such as Colorado State, TSR, and PSU (NOAA uses a hybrid statistical-dynamical model technique.) The FSU forecast has been one of the best ones over the past four years:

2009 prediction: 8 named storms, 4 hurricanes. Actual: 9 named storms, 3 hurricanes
2010 prediction: 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 12 hurricanes
2011 prediction: 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 7 hurricanes
2012 prediction: 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 10 hurricanes

Penn State predicts an above-average hurricane season: 16 named storms
A statistical model by Penn State's Michael Mann and alumnus Michael Kozar is calling for an active Atlantic hurricane season with 16 named storms, plus or minus 4 storms. Their prediction was made using statistics of how past hurricane seasons have behaved in response to sea surface temperatures (SSTs), the El Niño/La Niña oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and other factors. The statistic model assumes that in 2013 the May 0.87°C above average temperatures in the MDR will persist throughout hurricane season, the El Niño phase will be neutral to slightly warm, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will be near average.

The PSU team has been making Atlantic hurricane season forecasts since 2007, and these predictions have done pretty well, except for in 2012, when an expected El Niño did not materialize:

2007 prediction: 15 named storms, Actual: 15
2009 prediction: 12.5, named storms, Actual: 9
2010 prediction: 23 named storms, Actual: 19
2011 prediction: 16 named storms, Actual: 19
2012 prediction: 10.5 named storms, Actual: 19

UK Met Office predicts a slightly above-average hurricane season: 14 named storms
The UKMET office forecast for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, issued May 13, calls for slightly above normal activity, with 14 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and an ACE index of 130. In contrast to the statistical models relied upon by CSU, TSR, and NOAA, the UKMET model is done strictly using two dynamical global seasonal prediction systems: the Met Office GloSea5 system and ECMWF system 4. In 2012, the Met Office forecast was for 10 tropical storms and an ACE index of 90. The actual numbers were 19 named storms and an ACE index of 123.


Figure 4. Total 2013 Atlantic hurricane season activity as predicted by twelve different groups.

NOAA predicts a below-average Eastern Pacific hurricane season
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 23, calls for a below-average season, with 11 - 16 named storms, 5 - 8 hurricanes, 1 - 4 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 60% - 105% of the median. The mid-point of these ranges gives us a forecast for 13.5 named storms, 6.5 hurricanes, and 2.5 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 82% of average. The 1981 - 2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.

NOAA predicts a below-average Central Pacific hurricane season
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Central Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 22, calls for a below-average season, with 1 - 3 tropical cyclones. An average season has 4 - 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes. Hawaii is the primary land area affected by Central Pacific tropical cyclones.

West Pacific typhoon season forecast not available this year
Dr. Johnny Chan of the City University of Hong Kong usually issues a seasonal forecast of typhoon season in the Western Pacific, but did not do so in 2012 or 2013. An average typhoon season has 27 named storms and 17 typhoons. Typhoon seasons immediately following a La Niña year typically see higher levels of activity in the South China Sea, especially between months of May and July. Also, the jet stream tends to dip farther south than usual to the south of Japan, helping steer more tropical cyclones towards Japan and Korea.

Quiet in the Atlantic this weekend
There are no Atlantic threat areas to discuss today, and none of the reliable models for tropical cyclone formation is predicting development during the coming seven days. However, there are some indications that the atmosphere over the tropical Atlantic will become more conducive for tropical storm formation beginning around August 15. The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, may move into the Atlantic then, increasing tropical storm formation odds. At the same time, the computer models are indicating an increase in moisture over the tropical Atlantic, due to a series of tropical waves expected to push off of the coast of Africa. There will also be several eastward-moving Convectively-Coupled Kelvin Waves (CCKWs) traversing the Atlantic during that period. These atmospheric disturbances have a great deal of upward-moving air, which helps strengthen the updrafts of tropical disturbances. Formation of the Eastern Pacific's Hurricane Gil and Henriette were aided by CCKWs. These same CCKWs will cross into the Atlantic and increase the odds of tropical storm formation during the period August 15 - 20.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 731. Tropicsweatherpr:
I think part of why some people are downcasting this season is because of the April and May forecasts by the experts like CSU,NOAA,TSR that had a very active to hyperactive season. This may have caused those people to think that August would start like a bang very active. I expect the lull to end after the 20th.
i agree remember the years the storms were all lined up like a train.
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Quoting 735. nrtiwlnvragn:
UTOR up to 55kts


11W UTOR 130810 0000 13.6N 130.5E WPAC 55 982


Do you have the link to the WPAC ATCF data?
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Quoting 646. SunriseSteeda:


Heh heh, why do some act like their eyeballs will catch fire and burn out if someone quotes someone considered a troll?

All these years and I do not have a single filter. I haven't hidden or reported a single post nor ignored a single user. And be sure, I have read almost every blog entry over the last many years.

Just like the path of life is entertaining *because* of all the bumps and misdirections and challenges, so it is true for reading in general, and blogs to be specific.

This is not a weather information feed. It is a blog. It would be a good time to read up on what the actual definition purpose of a web log aka "blog" actually is.

"Indeed, bloggers do not only produce content to post on their blogs, but also build social relations with their readers and other bloggers". It is an informal social networking technique. Key words "informal" and "social".



At the start of every season I clear my ignore list. People grow, change, alter outlooks etc. I can always add someone back with just a click or two. Only one person on Ignore.
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Quoting 721. SunriseSteeda:


NO way! No you don't!
It is still far too easy for literally anyone to edit wikipedia content, and at least for a short while, contaminate fact with fiction or uneducated opinion!
When I was a young student and coder, I often heard something along the lines of "If you want to know the correct answer, consult 3 wise dudes and ferret out the consensus". Wiki could theoretically be one of those wise dudes, but with the caveat that you have to do a background check (next level of citations) on Wiki because it's so vulnerable.



You could use google to search "saharan air layer tropical" and get the Wikipedia entry.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saharan_Air_Layer


This may or may not be a completely accurate article, considering that it is completely populated interpreted from a SINGLE source:

Jason P. Dunion; Christopher S. Velden (2004). "The impact of the Saharan Air Layer on Atlantic tropical cyclone activity". American Meteorological Society. p. 13. Retrieved 18 April 2011.


You could go directly to scholar.google.com and enter keywords "saharan air layer tropical".

Turns out you get the wiki article's original source in that list, among other papers that probably should have been researched and integrated into the article.

http://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=sahara air la yer tropical&btnG=&hl=en&as_sdt=0%2C10


The first result happens to be what the Wikipedia entry uses as its only source:

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS- 85-3-353


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the GFS always drops storms and then pick them back up in the shorter term..anyone know why it does this?

Ryan Maue %u200F@RyanMaue 19h

GFS 00z has 4 Atlantic tropical storms in the 16-day forecast -- but all after Day 8. Cape Verde season still cranking up.
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UTOR up to 55kts


11W UTOR 130810 0000 13.6N 130.5E WPAC 55 982
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Quoting 728. VAbeachhurricanes:
Yeah guys but we are also 1 hurricane below normal ;)
Not quite yet... lol...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22725
Quoting 727. SunriseSteeda:


Ha! But are high school juniors actually learning more, or merely being exposed to smarter language? Ha ha.

Yes. I drive a Steeda and live in Sunrise (not very creative when it comes to naming my usernames, I am afraid). I spend much of my time in Boca Raton though (FAU).

I once visited the Bahamas for a softball tournament (Port Lucaya). Do you live on Grand Bahama?
Nah... I live in Nassau [the capital]. Given Grand Bahama's recent experience w/ hurricanes, I think I'll stay on New Providence...

However, today I drove through Sunrise twice... lol...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22725
Quoting 696. SunriseSteeda:


This is not the first time that I wished there was a keyword search function where the blog content itself (including comments) was the domain.

I'd be hunting for "is a bust" right now for August of last year and the year before ;)




There is a "Search The Blogs" function on the All Blogs page, right hand side.
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I think part of why some people are downcasting this season is because of the April and May forecasts by the experts like CSU,NOAA,TSR that had a very active to hyperactive season. This may have caused those people to think that August would start like a bang very active. I expect the lull to end after the 20th.
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i don't know about the rest of the Floridians here but over an inch of rain every day for weeks on end . I am getting tired of mowing grass every 4 days.
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TS Utor (Click to enlarge)



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Yeah guys but we are also 1 hurricane below normal ;)
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Quoting 716. BahaHurican:
LOL... every now and then I like to review that collegial vocabulary [I hear they r teaching that stuff to high school juniors these days] ...

LOL

R u in Sunrise, Steeda?

[SFL, I mean.]


Ha! But are high school juniors actually learning more, or merely being exposed to smarter language? Ha ha.

Yes. I drive a Steeda and live in Sunrise (not very creative when it comes to naming my usernames, I am afraid). I spend much of my time in Boca Raton though (FAU).

I once visited the Bahamas for a softball tournament (Port Lucaya). Do you live on Grand Bahama?
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Quoting 696. SunriseSteeda:


This is not the first time that I wished there was a keyword search function where the blog content itself (including comments) was the domain.

I'd be hunting for "is a bust" right now for August of last year and the year before ;)


Hmmm.... next blog related project for the WunderYakuza... I'd love to have that function available...

Quoting 698. TimSoCal:
Looks like this Utor is trying to make a wrap of it before it hits the Philippines...

Quoting 715. Naga5000:


For certain topics, it's great, but still not great enough to be used as an academic source. That was the point. :)
LOL... agreed... I tend to use Google for "general background informational reading" and then, as recommended elsewhere, go to other sources to confirm.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22725
725. SLU
Quoting 712. JLPR2:
Post by Dr. M on August 15, 2010

Elsewhere in the tropics
All of the major models have been predicting a major pattern shift in the global atmosphere late this week, which leads to breakdown of the Russian heat wave and the start of the Cape Verdes hurricane season. The models have been consistently predicting a tropical storm will form off the coast of Africa late this week, and track west-northwestward across the Atlantic. As usual, it is highly uncertain what track a storm that has yet to form might take.
------------------------------------------------- ------

The models picked up on Danielle around the 13th - 15th and Danielle formed around August 22nd. In other words it's still too early to say nothing will form around the 3rd-4th week of August.


Great post because there is also a major heatwave in eastern Europe right now so this may be contributing to our lull like it did in 2010.
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Quoting 697. SLU:
I'm getting sick to my stomach with all these comments about this being a bust season. It's just sickening.

If you want to see 30 storms and 10 major hurricanes a year, then go live in the Western Pacific.


theres a saying in sports when a a team is supposed to win and doesn't its "that's why they play the game" well lets play the game the next few months and see
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Based on all scientific forecasts,I am confident this season will rank as one of the most potent. However, I hope both the predictions and I are both very wrong.
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Quoting 719. ncstorm:
I hope this is revelant..if not Mods, please let me know and I will remove it..

All funnyjunk is relevant always...
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Quoting 644. Astrometeor:


I wish more of my teachers would utter that phrase. Wiki needs a PR campaign.


NO way! No you don't!

It is still far too easy for literally anyone to edit wikipedia content, and at least for a short while, contaminate fact with fiction or uneducated opinion!

When I was a young student and coder, I often heard something along the lines of "If you want to know the correct answer, consult 3 wise dudes and ferret out the consensus". Wiki could theoretically be one of those wise dudes, but with the caveat that you have to do a background check (next level of citations) on Wiki because it's so vulnerable.


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Quoting 717. Abacosurf:


At this point we are 1.77 storms ahaead of normal.

Looks like a cracker of a season ahead!!

1.77543187 ahead of normal............i kid.....i kid...:):)
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI AUG 9 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

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Quoting 711. SLU:


Today is August 9th. 90% of the hurricane season still lies ahead.


At this point we are 1.77 storms ahead of normal.

Looks like a cracker of a season ahead!!

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Quoting 693. SunriseSteeda:


I liked your use of the word "imputed"!

Never used the word myself until this summer, in the context of the system performance modeling (statistics, computer science) course I was in.

LOL... every now and then I like to review that collegial vocabulary [I hear they r teaching that stuff to high school juniors these days] ...

LOL

R u in Sunrise, Steeda?

[SFL, I mean.]
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22725
Quoting 705. BahaHurican:
I agree on this in a general sense; however, I've been impressed by how well "certain people" in this blog have ensured that the hurricane pages there are as accurate and up to date as possible.


For certain topics, it's great, but still not great enough to be used as an academic source. That was the point. :)
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 3960
Quoting 710. SunriseSteeda:


Among many other things. I often ponder whether the "Likes" for posts like yours are "Thank you for posting this news, albeit of unfortunate circumstances", or "Yay! 6 less Chinese! We aren't conquered yet! And weather did it. Bonus!"

You see similar things in other social networks, such as Facebook.

Of course, I am also motivated by the science of things, too ;) In Social Networks & Big Data Analytics, we example some intelligent algorithms created or used by Amazon, Facebook, Google, Yahoo, etc that can gauge the "feeling" of a conversation thread. For example, an algorithm could "sense" whether a comment about a product was positive or negative.

If Wunderground had this, blogs could self-moderate to some extent (automated), or flag entries for moderators to examine.

Wouldn't it be wunderful?

I wunder if wunderground is hiring. I need a job.



Personally, I plus stories like these that are posted, as I appreciate hearing international news regarding weather and disasters that I otherwise might miss. Certain bloggers and mods regularly post news articles of potential interest (and I am very happy they do so).
Member Since: June 26, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1844
Quoting 707. DDR:

Hey GT
According to google maps i am 6.4km to the south-south west from caura river :)
Nice! Reason I asked is there is a chutney song out about Caura River, which makes it sounds like a refreshing spot to go lyming with some friends. Have you ever been fishing in that river and what kinds of fishes do you normally catch there?
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712. JLPR2
Post by Dr. M on August 15, 2010

Elsewhere in the tropics
All of the major models have been predicting a major pattern shift in the global atmosphere late this week, which leads to breakdown of the Russian heat wave and the start of the Cape Verdes hurricane season. The models have been consistently predicting a tropical storm will form off the coast of Africa late this week, and track west-northwestward across the Atlantic. As usual, it is highly uncertain what track a storm that has yet to form might take.
------------------------------------------------- ------

The models picked up on Danielle around the 13th - 15th and Danielle formed around August 22nd. In other words it's still too early to say nothing will form around the 3rd-4th week of August.
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711. SLU
Quoting 697. SLU:
I'm getting sick to my stomach with all these comments about this being a bust season. It's just sickening.

If you want to see 30 storms and 10 major hurricanes a year, then go live in the Western Pacific.




Today is August 9th. 90% of the hurricane season still lies ahead.
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Quoting 664. Skyepony:
At least six people died as sudden gales and hail hit eastern China today morning, while three others were injured. "From 2 am to 4 am Friday, strong winds and hail battered Dangshan and Xiaoxian counties in Anhui, destroying houses, forcing road closures and disrupting the power supply," Anhui Provincial Civil Affairs Department told state-run Xinhua news agency. Six people died after strong winds uprooted trees that fell onto their houses. Those injured were taken to a local hospital.


Among many other things. I often ponder whether the "Likes" for posts like yours are "Thank you for posting this news, albeit of unfortunate circumstances", or "Yay! 6 less Chinese! We aren't conquered yet! And weather did it. Bonus!". Know what I mean? /- is such a binary thing (ha ha)!

You see similar things in other social networks, such as Facebook.

Of course, I am also motivated by the science of things, too ;) In Social Networks & Big Data Analytics, we example some intelligent algorithms created or used by Amazon, Facebook, Google, Yahoo, etc that can gauge the "feeling" of a conversation thread. For example, an algorithm could "sense" whether a comment about a product was positive or negative.

If Wunderground had this, blogs could self-moderate to some extent (automated), or flag entries for moderators to examine.

Wouldn't it be wunderful?

I wunder if wunderground is hiring. I need a job.

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Quoting 655. ncstorm:
Even though the CMC operational isnt showing anything in the GOM..some of the ensembles are..its not always the operational model that you should be looking at..



Thank you! That one model putting in at Corpus Christi then zigging over to Houston is a droughter's dream come true.
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Quoting 659. TomTaylor:
Cody, this season is a bust.

Evidence:
Nov. 30th when the totals are something like this:

Bust: 30/16/8 or
Bust: 4/0/0

There gave both cases of busts :P
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707. DDR
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
Hey how far you guys live from Caura River?

Hey GT
According to google maps i am 6.4km to the south-south west from caura river :)
Popular yes,but only one of many rivers/waterfall one can visit.
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For the eastern Pacific.

1. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 950
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE IT
MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

2. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1600 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE
FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
IT MOVES WESTWARD AROUND 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
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Quoting 654. Naga5000:


The reason wikipedia is not a valid source is that it can be highly inaccurate, however, I'll give you a good tip. The citations within wikipedia to the actual sources/published papers are great tools when needing to do background research on your topic. :)
I agree on this in a general sense; however, I've been impressed by how well "certain people" in this blog have ensured that the hurricane pages there are as accurate and up to date as possible.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22725
Quoting 626. Skyepony:
11W UTOR
Quoting 626. Skyepony:
11W UTOR


Don't see any reason why UTOR won't be flirting with a CAT 4 before landfall in the Philippines. Hopefully something can disrupt it, because it's ventilation right now in the upper levels is excellent in all quadrants. Even took that dip to the southwest when it deepened yesterday into today.

The always conservative JTWC



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Quoting 692. VAbeachhurricanes:
If you say a storm is going to form next week for 4 weeks, then one forms on the 5th week. You can't say "I told you so".
Well I said from earlier this week to look for the Western Caribbean for development next week which starts on the 11th and runs until the 17th. If I'm wrong then I will come on here and admit that I blew the forecast, but heck even the pros blow forecasts sometimes, even in a days time.
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Quoting 697. SLU:
I'm getting sick to my stomach with all these comments about this being a bust season. It's just sickening.





Why is it sickening?
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Quoting 682. scott39:
MDR stands for main developement region. This is primarily the Cape Verde area, after the waves have come off africa.


The MDR stretches from Africa through the Caribbean to Central America. Someone correct me if my perception is incorrect.
Member Since: June 26, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1844
Quoting 636. hurricane23:


reason i lurk and rarely post anymore..
Good to see u de-lurk from time to time... we always need a few more voices of reason in here in early August.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22725
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697. SLU
I'm getting sick to my stomach with all these comments about this being a bust season. It's just sickening.

If you want to see 30 storms and 10 major hurricanes a year, then go live in the Western Pacific.


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Quoting 694. BahaHurican:
See the hurricane record. Not only is this entirely possible, but we've actually seen it happen several times since 2005 when this blog got underway. The record is readily available.

Research is an appropriate behaviour in this blog...


This is not the first time that I wished there was a keyword search function where the blog content itself (including comments) was the domain.

I'd be hunting for "is a bust" right now for August of last year and the year before ;)


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Quoting 691. SuperStorm093:


Even if the storm does form, its 1 storm, that doesnt make the season not a bust.


Maybe we need a scale of "bustness" (not bustiness, though).


"This season, in my opinion, is a 5th degree bust, Gus!"


"No way, 2nd degree at worst, but a bust nonetheless, Buster".



Anyone want to get on this?


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Quoting 618. SuperStorm093:


You can call it nonsence, if the season starts to pick up. But just as that one guy on here before, we are going to need a hurricane once every like 6 days and MAJOR every 3 weeks. thats not happening.
See the hurricane record. Not only is this entirely possible, but we've actually seen it happen several times since 2005 when this blog got underway. The record is readily available.

Research is an appropriate behaviour in this blog...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22725
Quoting 678. BahaHurican:
Evening everybody...

I love the adjective... "childish"... no actual age imputed thereby.... lol

I admit I am hoping the interesting things hold off for another 5-7 days, because I want to be at home again in my comfort zone so I can monitor things properly. I'm enjoying my travels, but it sure takes a toll on any serious wx watching...



I liked your use of the word "imputed"!

Never used the word myself until this summer, in the context of the system performance modeling (statistics, computer science) course I was in.

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If you say a storm is going to form next week for 4 weeks, then one forms on the 5th week. You can't say "I told you so".
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Quoting 690. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Can't wait for that system to form so I can serve a whole garage full of crow to those downcasters who are calling this season a bust. And I seriously hope Texas gets a Tropical Storm with rain that can fill up their reservoirs that's my biggest wishcast and I don't see it as a bad thing either.


Even if the storm does form, its 1 storm, that doesnt make the season not a bust.
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Quoting 648. ncstorm:
last frame on the 18z Navgem

Can't wait for that system to form so I can serve a whole garage full of crow to those downcasters who are calling this season a bust. And I seriously hope Texas gets a Tropical Storm with rain that can fill up their reservoirs that's my biggest wishcast and I don't see it as a bad thing either.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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