An Active Atlantic Hurricane Season Still Predicted by NOAA, CSU, and TSR

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:07 PM GMT on August 09, 2013

Share this Blog
79
+

As we stand on the cusp of the peak part of hurricane season, all of the major groups that perform long-range seasonal hurricane forecasts are still calling for an active 2013 Atlantic hurricane season. NOAA forecasts an above-normal and possibly very active Atlantic hurricane season in 2013, in their August 8 outlook. They give a 70% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of an near-normal season, and 5% chance of a below-normal season. They predict a 70% chance that there will be 13 - 19 named storms, 6 - 9 hurricanes, and 3 - 5 major hurricanes, with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 120% - 190% of the median. If we take the midpoint of these numbers, NOAA is calling for 16 named storms, 7.5 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 155% of normal. This is well above the 1981 - 2010 average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Hurricane seasons during the active hurricane period 1995 - 2012 have averaged 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 151% of the median.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Dorian on July 25, 2013, when the storm reached peak intensity--sustained winds of 60 mph. Formation of early-season tropical storms like Chantal and Dorian in June and July in the deep tropics is usually a harbinger of an active Atlantic hurricane season. Image credit: NASA.

NOAA cites five main reasons to expect an active remainder of hurricane season:

1) Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are above average in the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes, from the coast of Africa to the Caribbean. As of August 9, SST were 0.4°C (0.8°F) above average.
2) Trade winds are weaker than average across the MDR, which has caused the African Monsoon to grow wetter and stronger, the amount of spin over the MDR to increase, and the amount of vertical wind shear to decrease.
3) No El Niño event is present or expected this fall.
4) There have been two early-season tropical storms in the deep tropics (Tropical Storms Chantal and Dorian), which is generally a harbinger of an above-normal season.
5) We are in an active hurricane period that began in 1995.

Colorado State predicts a much above-average hurricane season
A much above-average Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2013, according to the seasonal hurricane forecast issued August 2 by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). The CSU team is calling for 18 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 142. The forecast calls for an above-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (40% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (40% chance, 30% chance is average). The risk of a major hurricane in the Caribbean is also above average, at 53% (42% is average.)

Analogue years
The CSU team picked five previous years when atmospheric and oceanic conditions were similar to what we are seeing this year: cool neutral ENSO conditions and slightly above-average tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures. Those five years were 2008, a very active year with 16 named storms and 4 major hurricanes--Gustav, Ike, Paloma, and Omar; 2007, an active year with 15 named storms and two Category 5 storms--Dean and Felix; 1996, an above average year with 13 named storms and 6 major hurricanes--Edouard, Hortense, Fran, Bertha, Isidore, and Lili; 1966, an average year with 11 named storms and 3 major hurricanes--Inez, Alma, and Faith; and 1952, a below average year with 7 named storms and 3 major hurricanes. The average activity during these five analogue years was 12.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes, and 3.8 major hurricanes.

TSR predicts an above-average hurricane season: 14.8 named storms
The August 6 forecast for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season made by British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) calls for an active season with 14.8 named storms, 6.9 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 121. The long-term averages for the past 63 years are 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an ACE of 103. TSR rates their skill level as good for these August forecasts--47% - 59% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. TSR predicts a 58% chance that U.S. land falling activity will be above average, a 26% chance it will be near average, and a 16% chance it will be below average. They project that 4 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.8 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2012 climatology are 3.1 named storms and 1.4 hurricanes. They rate their skill at making these August forecasts for U.S. landfalls just 9% - 18% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 1.4 named storms, 0.6 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

TSR's two predictors for their statistical model are the forecast July - September trade wind speed over the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic, and the forecast August - September 2013 sea surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic. Their model is calling for warmer than average SSTs and near average trade winds during these periods, and both of these factors should act to increase hurricane and tropical storm activity.


Figure 2. Comparison of the percent improvement over climatology for May and August seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 1999-2009 (May) and 1998-2009 (August), using the Mean Squared Error. Image credit: Verification of 12 years of NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts, National Hurricane Center.


Figure 3. Comparison of the percent improvement in mean square error over climatology for seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 2003-2012, using the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS). The figure shows the results using two different climatologies: a fixed 50-year (1950 - 1999) climatology, and a 2003 - 2012 climatology. Skill is poor for forecasts issued in December and April, moderate for June forecasts, and good for August forecasts. Image credit: Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.

FSU predicts an above-average hurricane season: 15 named storms
The Florida State University (FSU) Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) issued their fifth annual Atlantic hurricane season forecast on May 30, calling for a 70% probability of 12 - 17 named storms and 5 - 10 hurricanes. The mid-point forecast is for 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of 135. The scientists use a numerical atmospheric model developed at COAPS to understand seasonal predictability of hurricane activity. The model is one of only a handful of numerical models in the world being used to study seasonal hurricane activity and is different from the statistical methods used by other seasonal hurricane forecasters such as Colorado State, TSR, and PSU (NOAA uses a hybrid statistical-dynamical model technique.) The FSU forecast has been one of the best ones over the past four years:

2009 prediction: 8 named storms, 4 hurricanes. Actual: 9 named storms, 3 hurricanes
2010 prediction: 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 12 hurricanes
2011 prediction: 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 7 hurricanes
2012 prediction: 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 10 hurricanes

Penn State predicts an above-average hurricane season: 16 named storms
A statistical model by Penn State's Michael Mann and alumnus Michael Kozar is calling for an active Atlantic hurricane season with 16 named storms, plus or minus 4 storms. Their prediction was made using statistics of how past hurricane seasons have behaved in response to sea surface temperatures (SSTs), the El Niño/La Niña oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and other factors. The statistic model assumes that in 2013 the May 0.87°C above average temperatures in the MDR will persist throughout hurricane season, the El Niño phase will be neutral to slightly warm, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will be near average.

The PSU team has been making Atlantic hurricane season forecasts since 2007, and these predictions have done pretty well, except for in 2012, when an expected El Niño did not materialize:

2007 prediction: 15 named storms, Actual: 15
2009 prediction: 12.5, named storms, Actual: 9
2010 prediction: 23 named storms, Actual: 19
2011 prediction: 16 named storms, Actual: 19
2012 prediction: 10.5 named storms, Actual: 19

UK Met Office predicts a slightly above-average hurricane season: 14 named storms
The UKMET office forecast for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, issued May 13, calls for slightly above normal activity, with 14 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and an ACE index of 130. In contrast to the statistical models relied upon by CSU, TSR, and NOAA, the UKMET model is done strictly using two dynamical global seasonal prediction systems: the Met Office GloSea5 system and ECMWF system 4. In 2012, the Met Office forecast was for 10 tropical storms and an ACE index of 90. The actual numbers were 19 named storms and an ACE index of 123.


Figure 4. Total 2013 Atlantic hurricane season activity as predicted by twelve different groups.

NOAA predicts a below-average Eastern Pacific hurricane season
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 23, calls for a below-average season, with 11 - 16 named storms, 5 - 8 hurricanes, 1 - 4 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 60% - 105% of the median. The mid-point of these ranges gives us a forecast for 13.5 named storms, 6.5 hurricanes, and 2.5 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 82% of average. The 1981 - 2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.

NOAA predicts a below-average Central Pacific hurricane season
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Central Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 22, calls for a below-average season, with 1 - 3 tropical cyclones. An average season has 4 - 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes. Hawaii is the primary land area affected by Central Pacific tropical cyclones.

West Pacific typhoon season forecast not available this year
Dr. Johnny Chan of the City University of Hong Kong usually issues a seasonal forecast of typhoon season in the Western Pacific, but did not do so in 2012 or 2013. An average typhoon season has 27 named storms and 17 typhoons. Typhoon seasons immediately following a La Niña year typically see higher levels of activity in the South China Sea, especially between months of May and July. Also, the jet stream tends to dip farther south than usual to the south of Japan, helping steer more tropical cyclones towards Japan and Korea.

Quiet in the Atlantic this weekend
There are no Atlantic threat areas to discuss today, and none of the reliable models for tropical cyclone formation is predicting development during the coming seven days. However, there are some indications that the atmosphere over the tropical Atlantic will become more conducive for tropical storm formation beginning around August 15. The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, may move into the Atlantic then, increasing tropical storm formation odds. At the same time, the computer models are indicating an increase in moisture over the tropical Atlantic, due to a series of tropical waves expected to push off of the coast of Africa. There will also be several eastward-moving Convectively-Coupled Kelvin Waves (CCKWs) traversing the Atlantic during that period. These atmospheric disturbances have a great deal of upward-moving air, which helps strengthen the updrafts of tropical disturbances. Formation of the Eastern Pacific's Hurricane Gil and Henriette were aided by CCKWs. These same CCKWs will cross into the Atlantic and increase the odds of tropical storm formation during the period August 15 - 20.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 790 - 740

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50Blog Index

Henriette remains a very small but well-defined tropical storm. Tropical storm-force winds extend out 45 miles from the center according to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center. Convection atop the center has been developing lately, whereas the circulation was completely exposed earlier this morning.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31868
Quoting 778. nrtiwlnvragn:


GEOS-5 also hinting



Good news for TX
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Regarding the question of seasonal bustivity:

If we have only one more storm this season, but it's the size of Sandy with the destructiveness of Camille, does that qualify as a bust?

Conversely, if we have 20 Cat 1 fish storms, where would that rate in terms of busticity?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
well..I'll be back for the 00z run..

nothing to see here..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 780. SunriseSteeda:


Now that is interesting. Could it be that sea ice-no-ice extent is cyclical and pseudo-random after all this, regardless of our travesties?
You tell me:

Sea ice

That's a little premature, and kinda like asking whether the lack of a named Atlantic storm so far this month is indication that the season is over. ;-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Anyway, now that I'm working 8-5 have become a weekend warrior. Tennis and golf tomorrow!
night all. Guess I'm not the only one who feels like we're sitting on a tinderbox this season (after reading Doc Masters' blog).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 776. washingtonian115:
If anyone is interested here is a article on sea ice extent during July..Don't shoot the messenger..CWG
Link


The article is correct about extent, but that's why it's important to look at volume as well. Extent is defined as area of ocean with at least 15% sea ice concentration. What we saw in July, and is at least one of the factors leading the slow down and even small gain in extent, was a big low pressure system blowing the ice around causing the extent to look way better. There is little doubt that extent will not break 2012's record, but we are still looking at 4th (currently) or 5th lowest extent over all.

Not shooting the messenger, just giving some context. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Link Caribbean WV Loop




850mb
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Here is another article about our cool stretch..
Link
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16750
Quoting 776. washingtonian115:
If anyone is interested here is a article on sea ice extent during July..Don't shoot the messenger..CWG
Link


Now that is interesting. Could it be that sea ice-no-ice extent is cyclical and pseudo-random after all this, regardless of our travesties?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 776. washingtonian115:
If anyone is interested here is a article on sea ice extent during July..Don't shoot the messenger..CWG
Link
Is this slight turnaround cyclical or caused by less gases put in the air?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 767. Levi32:
12z GFS EnKF ensembles are up to 6 out of 20 members showing development of the Caribbean wave, up from 4 out of 20 on the 0z run. Still less than ideal model support.



GEOS-5 also hinting


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 765. LAbonbon:


There were some guys blogging earlier saying a TS or even a Cat 1 would be welcome. You know what they say about desperate times...


And if the season were to end quietly, more like "Okay okay okay, would a 3-hour hailstorm be too much to ask?"

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If anyone is interested here is a article on sea ice extent during July..Don't shoot the messenger..CWG
Link
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16750
Levi. Do you think the North Atlantic may be affected by the global ACE being down and not be a high ACE producer in 2013?
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14210
Quoting 770. Naga5000:



I'm just letting my grass grow. I refuse to change my every other week schedule. My backyard Elephant Ears and ferns look like something out of Jurrasic Park this year.


I gave up. My side and back yards are all banana trees and giant growths of daisies. A veritable jungle. Very low maintenance.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 749. ncstorm:


I think its pretty obviousious why I choose my handle..
North Carolina is another place that is overdue. Got relatives up ther and they were there when Hugo arrived. Damage from Charleston north for quite a distance.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
772. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
Typhoon Warning
TROPICAL STORM UTOR (T1311)
9:00 AM JST August 9 2013
===================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Named Cyclone In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Utor (992 hPa) located at 13.6N 130.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 10 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==================
120 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS: 15.1N 127.2E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 17.4N 124.2E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
72 HRS: 19.9N 120.2E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Bashi Channel
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 733. BahaHurican:
Nah... I live in Nassau [the capital]. Given Grand Bahama's recent experience w/ hurricanes, I think I'll stay on New Providence...

However, today I drove through Sunrise twice... lol...



I was in Freeport for 5 days in June, 2005 for the Caribbean/U.S. Cornelius "Money" Williams softball tournament.

What was striking was that the damage from the previous year's Hurricane Frances was readily apparent.

The Port Lucayan resort we were staying at had been freshly repaired and repainted by the time we arrived, but on the bus trips to the various ball fields through the surrounding neighborhoods showed us a different picture altogether.

For example, I saw a hotel (Holiday Inn?) that had been severely damaged. Some concrete balconies were broken and hanging, prepared to drop at any time, exposing the skeletal structures of the building. And this was a year LATER.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 730. floridaT:
i don't know about the rest of the Floridians here but over an inch of rain every day for weeks on end . I am getting tired of mowing grass every 4 days.



I'm just letting my grass grow. I refuse to change my every other week schedule. My backyard Elephant Ears and ferns look like something out of Jurrasic Park this year.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 765. LAbonbon:


There were some guys blogging earlier saying a TS or even a Cat 1 would be welcome. You know what they say about desperate times...
"Desperate times call for desperate measures"
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16750
Quoting 765. LAbonbon:


There were some guys blogging earlier saying a TS or even a Cat 1 would be welcome. You know what they say about desperate times...

...require desperate measures.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
12z GFS EnKF ensembles are up to 6 out of 20 members showing development of the Caribbean wave, up from 4 out of 20 on the 0z run. Still less than ideal model support.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 755. BahaHurican:
I think I agree with Steeda... there's an edge to the anticipation at the moment, but also a kind of dread that the worst will be your personal lot.

:o/

yeah, we all have our war stories
I'm named after "chicken little."
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 760. Chicklit:

yes, i suppose at this point they'd welcome a hurricane even with all the destruction one would bring.


There were some guys blogging earlier saying a TS or even a Cat 1 would be welcome. You know what they say about desperate times...
Member Since: June 26, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1817
Quoting 756. washingtonian115:
I chose mine because 1).I was to lazy to think of anything else..2) well I'm from and live in D.C..3).the 115 part comes from the fact that I miss typed a letter in my e-mail address so I had to change it from 105 to 115.


Perhaps I should have chosen a handle that states more of where I am than WHO I am
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 751. Chicklit:
I am a little dismayed and somewhat concerned about the consensus for an active hurricane season. Nobody wants a hurricane in their neighborhood.
I agree. But, in Florida it is an eventuality. So we watch and wait.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
And the waves continue to dud out once they reach the water.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Looking at the model data, and looking at what's rolling off of the African coast I'd say it's a safe bet (greater than 50/50) that we'll have something of note late next week to gather people's attention and maybe cut back on some of the trolling. It's still not August 20, so it's still too early to make bust predictions. I don't have a Phd in Meteorology, and I'm not an expert, but the last couple of years have been too quiet. It just feels like we're due for an active season, and it feels like we're overdue for a Major to hit the mainland. I wouldn't be surprised to see both happen this year.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 757. LAbonbon:


Amen to that...except, perhaps, for some of the very thirsty folks in Texas...

yes, i suppose at this point they'd welcome a hurricane even with all the destruction one would bring.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This hurricane season may make up for what seems like a lengthy lull and not significant systems so far to have a sobering major hurricane strike.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This is new...


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 751. Chicklit:
I am a little dismayed and somewhat concerned about the consensus for an active hurricane season. Nobody wants a hurricane in their neighborhood.


Amen to that...except, perhaps, for some of the very thirsty folks in Texas...
Member Since: June 26, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1817
Quoting 749. ncstorm:


I think its pretty obviousious why I choose my handle..
I chose mine because 1).I was to lazy to think of anything else..2) well I'm from and live in D.C..3).the 115 part comes from the fact that I miss typed a letter in my e-mail address so I had to change it from 105 to 115.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16750
Quoting 751. Chicklit:
I am a little dismayed and somewhat concerned about the consensus for an active hurricane season. Nobody wants a hurricane in their neighborhood.
I think I agree with Steeda... there's an edge to the anticipation at the moment, but also a kind of dread that the worst will be your personal lot.

:o/
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21878
Quoting 740. floridaT:
i agree remember the years the storms were all lined up like a train.

Yes, I remember in a lot of the past several years, that once August hit, it was like BANG! with storms just forming one after another. However, there have been so many years that had less than average storm numbers and with a late starting season, but there turned out to be a bad major that hit the US. One such year is 1965 with only 6 named storms.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 749. ncstorm:


I think its pretty obviousious why I choose my handle..
NO... I have NO IDEA why u chose your handle... lol

BAHA
Hurican

;o)
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21878
I am a little dismayed and somewhat concerned about the consensus for an active hurricane season. Nobody wants a hurricane in their neighborhood.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 740. floridaT:
i agree remember the years the storms were all lined up like a train.
It will happen this year too. Soon.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 745. unknowncomic:
Since we have extra time on our hands, I chose this handle because:

1)Some of the people on this site need some comedy (if you know what I mean)--though am not a comedian by trade, mind you.
2) The comedian with a similar name from the Gong show in the 1980's was someone that made me laugh like crazy in a very dark time of my life.

Thank you for your support and carry on.


I think its pretty obviousious why I choose my handle..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 747. hurricanes2018:
I'm new to the east coast and would like to know how bad might it get here this month?


It really depends on whether or not your area is in the vicinity of a storm or not. Your particular area has had a lot of tropical storms historically, and a few 'major' hurricanes. Best advice, keep an eye on WU's tropical page for updates, and make sure to do all your hurricane prep now, and have a hurricane kit ready
no hurricanes coming anytime soon.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'm new to the east coast and would like to know how bad might it get here this month?


It really depends on whether or not your area is in the vicinity of a storm or not. Your particular area has had a lot of tropical storms historically, and a few 'major' hurricanes. Best advice, keep an eye on WU's tropical page for updates, and make sure to do all your hurricane prep now, and have a hurricane kit ready
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 735. nrtiwlnvragn:
UTOR up to 55kts


11W UTOR 130810 0000 13.6N 130.5E WPAC 55 982

WV Loop 11W



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Since we have extra time on our hands, I chose this handle because:

1)Some of the people on this site need some comedy (if you know what I mean)--though am not a comedian by trade, mind you.
2) The comedian with a similar name from the Gong show in the 1980's was someone that made me laugh like crazy in a very dark time of my life.

Thank you for your support and carry on.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
744. DDR
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
Nice! Reason I asked is there is a chutney song out about Caura River, which makes it sounds like a refreshing spot to go lyming with some friends. Have you ever been fishing in that river and what kinds of fishes do you normally catch there?

People usually just 'lime' hangout,bathe and cook food there,there aren't many spieces of fish in the river(s) of the southern slopes of northern range,the few that there are very small(you can put most of them in a small house aquarium)except for the cat fish,the north slope river(the larger ones) have a mix of fresh water and salt water fish close to the mouths and some large ones even swim upstream,just my obvservation :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


This rain data here all fell within 4 hours.

Edit: Highest two totals are 7.3 and 6.9.

Edit Two: This is a CoCoRaHS map for Nashville, TN
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 734. BahaHurican:
Not quite yet... lol...


Welllllllll it's august 10th zulu time :p
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 739. Tropicsweatherpr:


Do you have the link to the WPAC ATCF data?


Only the sector file
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 731. Tropicsweatherpr:
I think part of why some people are downcasting this season is because of the April and May forecasts by the experts like CSU,NOAA,TSR that had a very active to hyperactive season. This may have caused those people to think that August would start like a bang very active. I expect the lull to end after the 20th.
i agree remember the years the storms were all lined up like a train.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 790 - 740

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.