An Active Atlantic Hurricane Season Still Predicted by NOAA, CSU, and TSR

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:07 PM GMT on August 09, 2013

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As we stand on the cusp of the peak part of hurricane season, all of the major groups that perform long-range seasonal hurricane forecasts are still calling for an active 2013 Atlantic hurricane season. NOAA forecasts an above-normal and possibly very active Atlantic hurricane season in 2013, in their August 8 outlook. They give a 70% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of an near-normal season, and 5% chance of a below-normal season. They predict a 70% chance that there will be 13 - 19 named storms, 6 - 9 hurricanes, and 3 - 5 major hurricanes, with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 120% - 190% of the median. If we take the midpoint of these numbers, NOAA is calling for 16 named storms, 7.5 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 155% of normal. This is well above the 1981 - 2010 average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Hurricane seasons during the active hurricane period 1995 - 2012 have averaged 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 151% of the median.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Dorian on July 25, 2013, when the storm reached peak intensity--sustained winds of 60 mph. Formation of early-season tropical storms like Chantal and Dorian in June and July in the deep tropics is usually a harbinger of an active Atlantic hurricane season. Image credit: NASA.

NOAA cites five main reasons to expect an active remainder of hurricane season:

1) Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are above average in the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes, from the coast of Africa to the Caribbean. As of August 9, SST were 0.4°C (0.8°F) above average.
2) Trade winds are weaker than average across the MDR, which has caused the African Monsoon to grow wetter and stronger, the amount of spin over the MDR to increase, and the amount of vertical wind shear to decrease.
3) No El Niño event is present or expected this fall.
4) There have been two early-season tropical storms in the deep tropics (Tropical Storms Chantal and Dorian), which is generally a harbinger of an above-normal season.
5) We are in an active hurricane period that began in 1995.

Colorado State predicts a much above-average hurricane season
A much above-average Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2013, according to the seasonal hurricane forecast issued August 2 by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). The CSU team is calling for 18 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 142. The forecast calls for an above-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (40% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (40% chance, 30% chance is average). The risk of a major hurricane in the Caribbean is also above average, at 53% (42% is average.)

Analogue years
The CSU team picked five previous years when atmospheric and oceanic conditions were similar to what we are seeing this year: cool neutral ENSO conditions and slightly above-average tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures. Those five years were 2008, a very active year with 16 named storms and 4 major hurricanes--Gustav, Ike, Paloma, and Omar; 2007, an active year with 15 named storms and two Category 5 storms--Dean and Felix; 1996, an above average year with 13 named storms and 6 major hurricanes--Edouard, Hortense, Fran, Bertha, Isidore, and Lili; 1966, an average year with 11 named storms and 3 major hurricanes--Inez, Alma, and Faith; and 1952, a below average year with 7 named storms and 3 major hurricanes. The average activity during these five analogue years was 12.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes, and 3.8 major hurricanes.

TSR predicts an above-average hurricane season: 14.8 named storms
The August 6 forecast for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season made by British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) calls for an active season with 14.8 named storms, 6.9 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 121. The long-term averages for the past 63 years are 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an ACE of 103. TSR rates their skill level as good for these August forecasts--47% - 59% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. TSR predicts a 58% chance that U.S. land falling activity will be above average, a 26% chance it will be near average, and a 16% chance it will be below average. They project that 4 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.8 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2012 climatology are 3.1 named storms and 1.4 hurricanes. They rate their skill at making these August forecasts for U.S. landfalls just 9% - 18% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 1.4 named storms, 0.6 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

TSR's two predictors for their statistical model are the forecast July - September trade wind speed over the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic, and the forecast August - September 2013 sea surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic. Their model is calling for warmer than average SSTs and near average trade winds during these periods, and both of these factors should act to increase hurricane and tropical storm activity.


Figure 2. Comparison of the percent improvement over climatology for May and August seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 1999-2009 (May) and 1998-2009 (August), using the Mean Squared Error. Image credit: Verification of 12 years of NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts, National Hurricane Center.


Figure 3. Comparison of the percent improvement in mean square error over climatology for seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 2003-2012, using the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS). The figure shows the results using two different climatologies: a fixed 50-year (1950 - 1999) climatology, and a 2003 - 2012 climatology. Skill is poor for forecasts issued in December and April, moderate for June forecasts, and good for August forecasts. Image credit: Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.

FSU predicts an above-average hurricane season: 15 named storms
The Florida State University (FSU) Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) issued their fifth annual Atlantic hurricane season forecast on May 30, calling for a 70% probability of 12 - 17 named storms and 5 - 10 hurricanes. The mid-point forecast is for 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of 135. The scientists use a numerical atmospheric model developed at COAPS to understand seasonal predictability of hurricane activity. The model is one of only a handful of numerical models in the world being used to study seasonal hurricane activity and is different from the statistical methods used by other seasonal hurricane forecasters such as Colorado State, TSR, and PSU (NOAA uses a hybrid statistical-dynamical model technique.) The FSU forecast has been one of the best ones over the past four years:

2009 prediction: 8 named storms, 4 hurricanes. Actual: 9 named storms, 3 hurricanes
2010 prediction: 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 12 hurricanes
2011 prediction: 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 7 hurricanes
2012 prediction: 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 10 hurricanes

Penn State predicts an above-average hurricane season: 16 named storms
A statistical model by Penn State's Michael Mann and alumnus Michael Kozar is calling for an active Atlantic hurricane season with 16 named storms, plus or minus 4 storms. Their prediction was made using statistics of how past hurricane seasons have behaved in response to sea surface temperatures (SSTs), the El Niño/La Niña oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and other factors. The statistic model assumes that in 2013 the May 0.87°C above average temperatures in the MDR will persist throughout hurricane season, the El Niño phase will be neutral to slightly warm, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will be near average.

The PSU team has been making Atlantic hurricane season forecasts since 2007, and these predictions have done pretty well, except for in 2012, when an expected El Niño did not materialize:

2007 prediction: 15 named storms, Actual: 15
2009 prediction: 12.5, named storms, Actual: 9
2010 prediction: 23 named storms, Actual: 19
2011 prediction: 16 named storms, Actual: 19
2012 prediction: 10.5 named storms, Actual: 19

UK Met Office predicts a slightly above-average hurricane season: 14 named storms
The UKMET office forecast for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, issued May 13, calls for slightly above normal activity, with 14 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and an ACE index of 130. In contrast to the statistical models relied upon by CSU, TSR, and NOAA, the UKMET model is done strictly using two dynamical global seasonal prediction systems: the Met Office GloSea5 system and ECMWF system 4. In 2012, the Met Office forecast was for 10 tropical storms and an ACE index of 90. The actual numbers were 19 named storms and an ACE index of 123.


Figure 4. Total 2013 Atlantic hurricane season activity as predicted by twelve different groups.

NOAA predicts a below-average Eastern Pacific hurricane season
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 23, calls for a below-average season, with 11 - 16 named storms, 5 - 8 hurricanes, 1 - 4 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 60% - 105% of the median. The mid-point of these ranges gives us a forecast for 13.5 named storms, 6.5 hurricanes, and 2.5 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 82% of average. The 1981 - 2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.

NOAA predicts a below-average Central Pacific hurricane season
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Central Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 22, calls for a below-average season, with 1 - 3 tropical cyclones. An average season has 4 - 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes. Hawaii is the primary land area affected by Central Pacific tropical cyclones.

West Pacific typhoon season forecast not available this year
Dr. Johnny Chan of the City University of Hong Kong usually issues a seasonal forecast of typhoon season in the Western Pacific, but did not do so in 2012 or 2013. An average typhoon season has 27 named storms and 17 typhoons. Typhoon seasons immediately following a La Niña year typically see higher levels of activity in the South China Sea, especially between months of May and July. Also, the jet stream tends to dip farther south than usual to the south of Japan, helping steer more tropical cyclones towards Japan and Korea.

Quiet in the Atlantic this weekend
There are no Atlantic threat areas to discuss today, and none of the reliable models for tropical cyclone formation is predicting development during the coming seven days. However, there are some indications that the atmosphere over the tropical Atlantic will become more conducive for tropical storm formation beginning around August 15. The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, may move into the Atlantic then, increasing tropical storm formation odds. At the same time, the computer models are indicating an increase in moisture over the tropical Atlantic, due to a series of tropical waves expected to push off of the coast of Africa. There will also be several eastward-moving Convectively-Coupled Kelvin Waves (CCKWs) traversing the Atlantic during that period. These atmospheric disturbances have a great deal of upward-moving air, which helps strengthen the updrafts of tropical disturbances. Formation of the Eastern Pacific's Hurricane Gil and Henriette were aided by CCKWs. These same CCKWs will cross into the Atlantic and increase the odds of tropical storm formation during the period August 15 - 20.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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If anyone's interested, here's a short web briefing from NWS-Springfield, MO, regarding rainfall events and totals this past week, for the Missouri/Kansas/Arkansas area. It's a bit dry (no pun intended), but the sheer total amounts are higher than I expected (15+ in in some places). Looks like they finally have the rain clearing out later tomorrow.

Link
Member Since: June 26, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1817
839. SLU
Quoting 814. bigwes6844:
don't worry SLU I completely understand we have impatient people trust me i work at Lowe's and i know how this blog can get during this time. So Heres the reminder to the impatient ones:


My sentiments are the same
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Quoting 832. SunriseSteeda:


Yep yep, thanks for the link.

I don't claim to know one way or the other. I guess my point is that while I am, however, certain that not only do I not have enough information/data to "know", neither do all the cumulative efforts of those who DO know more than me about this topic.

I merely intuitively suspect there are more variables and larger patterns at work that could make our own actions/effective relatively impotent.



In all honestly, look into the peer reviewed science. SkepticalScience.com is a great place to begin as they link to the actual papers they reference.

You're right about there being more variables, there are natural variations at the global and regional scale, as well as natural forcings, however, the research shows that the anthropogenic signal tends to dominate these other forcings and there are a heck of a lot of positive feedback mechanism that start to come into play.

Either way, I honestly implore you to give it a shot, if you want to know, that is. The depth of our scientific knowledge about this is pretty amazing.
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Quoting 826. SunriseSteeda:



Nope! Especially since the most recent 8000 years only covers ~~ .0001739% of the existence of this rock we call home.



That's irrelevant since humans have existed for only ~0.06% of the Earth's existence. Agriculture has existed for only a small fraction of human existence. Industrial agriculture, upon which we all depend, has existed for an even smaller fraction of that time -it's practically a newborn.

That's where one of the major problems of AGW is. It's not going to get too hot for humans to exist (probably). But AGW might very well make it impossible to grow enough food to feed the 7+ billion of us that are here now, much less the billions that we'll add in the future.

So, the age of the Earth is largely irrelevant.
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With the eye developing on Utor, could see it jump to major hurricane strength as the eye clears out. I was saying before it makes landfall on the Philippines I say he makes it to super typhoon status.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 246 Comments: 3945
Quoting 834. TXCWC:


Not as scary when look at actual forecast winds but ya - still at or near hurricane strength shown on that one
IF that pic shows a near cat 1, I would love to see what a cat 5 is.
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834. TXCWC
Quoting 828. SuperStorm093:


Most likely wont happen, the number 12 one of course, but dang, thats like a cat 4 or cat 5.


Not as scary when look at actual forecast winds but ya - still at or near hurricane strength shown on that one
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Quoting 831. MiamiHurricanes09:
This is what a 55kt tropical storm looks like in the WPAC.

WP, 11, 2013081000, , BEST, 0, 136N, 1305E, 55, 982, XX, 34, NEQ, 50, 50, 50, 50, 1006, 175, 25, 0, 0, W, 0, X, 270, 10, UTOR, M, , , , , , , TCGP EXTRA DATA, WP112013, JTWC, NCEP_TCVITALS,

Because JTWC got some excellent sense of storm's strength...

*sarcasm*
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8030
Quoting 825. Naga5000:


I would dig a bit deeper. What you are suggesting has been researched, here is a good start. Link



Yep yep, thanks for the link.

I don't claim to know one way or the other. I guess my point is that while I am, however, certain that not only do I not have enough information/data to "know", neither do all the cumulative efforts of those who DO know more than me about this topic.

I merely intuitively suspect there are more variables and larger patterns at work that could make our own actions/effective relatively impotent.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This is what a 55kt tropical storm looks like in the WPAC.

WP, 11, 2013081000, , BEST, 0, 136N, 1305E, 55, 982, XX, 34, NEQ, 50, 50, 50, 50, 1006, 175, 25, 0, 0, W, 0, X, 270, 10, UTOR, M, , , , , , , TCGP EXTRA DATA, WP112013, JTWC, NCEP_TCVITALS,

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting 820. congaline:
At the risk of being ignored by lots (more) of people on here, I have to say it is so amusing to me when people get all moralistic and upset when someone says they love storms and "wish" for them. I have been on this blog almost 6 yrs and when there's no storm to track and to fantasize about growing to enormous, historical proportions, people get grumpy, depressed, and downright miserable. The minute any blob with the slightest promise appears in the Atlantic suddenly the blog gets so so happy, actually celebratory, blissful... ecstatic...I'd say 80% (just a guesstimate) immediately begin plotting the course of said blob, right to their own doorstep, and if blob turns and heads another way, they are seriously disappointed. Yes hurricanes are dangerous, yes sometimes people get hurt, but we don't create these storms, they exist, and pop up every single year, and they do serve an environmental necessity for this planet. People who love weather and all the mystery and awesomeness of it, study it, measure it, apply every bit of knowledge they so lovingly accumulate over the years so we can all live more aware of dangers and survive them better. If you happen to develop a passionate love for them while watching them and studying them, I can't say I blame you. Hurricanes are unbelievably beautiful to me too. And I've spent many hurricanes boarded up inside various houses and shelters watching lawn furniture and tree branches blow by...In Florida hurricanes are a reality, and you need to view them with awe, reverence, and yes, a little admiration too.


Well stated...but, I am one that can do without any land plowing system......been thru to many and don't need any power outages for more than a week and no drinking water for 2 weeks.....that crap someone else can have.....but I do enjoy my own stupidity and my stupid errors at my on forecasting a track...:)
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Tropical Storm 11W is developing an eye on visible and infrared satellite imagery, rapid intensification I think so, and the upper level low in the GOM is trucking westward.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 246 Comments: 3945
Quoting 822. TXCWC:
12Z increase in Hi-Res GFS Ensembles showing potential Gulf Storm in 7 days...now up to 9 or 10 of 20 members showing some type of development...member #12 is down right scary looking (I am NOT saying that will happen)




and as to be expected tropical storm % increasing on Hi-Res GFS Ensemble mean


Most likely wont happen, the number 12 one of course, but dang, thats like a cat 4 or cat 5.
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Quoting 820. congaline:
At the risk of being ignored by lots (more) of people on here, I have to say it is so amusing to me when people get all moralistic and upset when someone says they love storms and "wish" for them. I have been on this blog almost 6 yrs and when there's no storm to track and to fantasize about growing to enormous, historical proportions, people get grumpy, depressed, and downright miserable. The minute any blob with the slightest promise appears in the Atlantic suddenly the blog gets so so happy, actually celebratory, blissful... ecstatic...I'd say 80% (just a guesstimate) immediately begin plotting the course of said blob, right to their own doorstep, and if blob turns and heads another way, they are seriously disappointed. Yes hurricanes are dangerous, yes sometimes people get hurt, but we don't create these storms, they exist, and pop up every single year, and they do serve an environmental necessity for this planet. People who love weather and all the mystery and awesomeness of it, study it, measure it, apply every bit of knowledge they so lovingly accumulate over the years so we can all live more aware of dangers and survive them better. If you happen to develop a passionate love for them while watching them and studying them, I can't say I blame you. Hurricanes are unbelievably beautiful to me too. And I've spent many hurricanes boarded up inside various houses and shelters watching lawn furniture and tree branches blow by...In Florida hurricanes are a reality, and you need to view them with awe, reverence, and yes, a little admiration too.

Thanks for posting this....agree 100%
Member Since: September 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1148
Quoting 812. Neapolitan:
I would somewhat agree about the 50 year bit. But then again, scientists who study such things are pretty confident the Arctic hasn't seen such a small amount of ice for at least 8,000 years, and possibly far longer. is that long enough for you? ;-)



Nope! Especially since the most recent 8000 years only covers ~~ .0001739% of the existence of this rock we call home.


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Quoting 817. SunriseSteeda:


Well for one, the current trend of reduction of arctic sea ice extents. But of course there are many more variables, trends, oscillations and stuff going on. Many likely a have a period much longer than we have the data to completely measure. It's why we don't know everything there is to know yet.

Specifically, perhaps the cycle period of arctic sea ice changes is 125,000 years (the last time it was ice-free?), or 65,000,000 years (another time it was ice free).




I would dig a bit deeper. What you are suggesting has been researched, here is a good start. Link

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Quoting 822. TXCWC:
12Z increase in Hi-Res GFS Ensembles showing potential Gulf Storm in 7 days...now up to 9 or 10 of 20 members showing some type of development...member #12 is down right scary looking (I am NOT saying that will happen)




and as to be expected tropical storm % increasing on Hi-Res GFS Ensemble mean

Looks TX bound!
Member Since: September 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1148
Quoting 817. SunriseSteeda:


Well for one, the trend of sea ice extent changes. But of course there are many more variables, trends, oscillations and stuff going on. Many likely a have a period much longer than we have the data to completely measure. It's why we don't know everything there is to know yet, perhaps!

Specifically, perhaps the cycle period of arctic sea ice changes is 125,000 years (perhaps the last time it was ice-free), or 65,000,000 years (another time it was ice free).



Lots of things *could* be happening. However, I'm a big fan of valid evidence as opposed to rank speculation. What we have is less melting (so far) this year than last. The weather sufficiently explains the observed difference without having to invoke cycles.

But any such cycle concerning the Arctic sea ice would be astonishingly convenient since the melting was predicted long before it became an observed fact. That would be a mighty coincidental cycle. Again, possible, but a near zero chance.
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822. TXCWC
12Z increase in Hi-Res GFS Ensembles showing potential Gulf Storm in 7 days...now up to 9 or 10 of 20 members showing some type of development...member #12 is down right scary looking (I am NOT saying that will happen)




and as to be expected tropical storm % increasing on Hi-Res GFS Ensemble mean
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Gotta say the ULL in the Gulf is building some storms near its center.....something to watch. But, that's about it.
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At the risk of being ignored by lots (more) of people on here, I have to say it is so amusing to me when people get all moralistic and upset when someone says they love storms and "wish" for them. I have been on this blog almost 6 yrs and when there's no storm to track and to fantasize about growing to enormous, historical proportions, people get grumpy, depressed, and downright miserable. The minute any blob with the slightest promise appears in the Atlantic suddenly the blog gets so so happy, actually celebratory, blissful... ecstatic...I'd say 80% (just a guesstimate) immediately begin plotting the course of said blob, right to their own doorstep, and if blob turns and heads another way, they are seriously disappointed. Yes hurricanes are dangerous, yes sometimes people get hurt, but we don't create these storms, they exist, and pop up every single year, and they do serve an environmental necessity for this planet. People who love weather and all the mystery and awesomeness of it, study it, measure it, apply every bit of knowledge they so lovingly accumulate over the years so we can all live more aware of dangers and survive them better. If you happen to develop a passionate love for them while watching them and studying them, I can't say I blame you. Hurricanes are unbelievably beautiful to me too. And I've spent many hurricanes boarded up inside various houses and shelters watching lawn furniture and tree branches blow by...In Florida hurricanes are a reality, and you need to view them with awe, reverence, and yes, a little admiration too.
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Quoting 807. Tazmanian:
See you Guys in 2 weeks nothing going on my check in but won't. Be posting any thing there this nothing going on out there


Be back in two weeks and will see if will have some in then


Oh I saw it 1st


Taz, you wait two weeks and you will miss the start up of the sason. I have a prediction: there is no way you can stay away for two weeks. Now way! You heard it here first!
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Nothing happening in Tropics.....I really don't think this year will be much above average. IT ONLY TAKES ONE STORM THO.
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Quoting 801. Birthmark:

What, exactly, is it that you think would be "cycling?"


Well for one, the current trend of reduction of arctic sea ice extents. But of course there are many more variables, trends, oscillations and stuff going on. Many likely a have a period much longer than we have the data to completely measure. It's why we don't know everything there is to know yet.

Specifically, perhaps the cycle period of arctic sea ice changes is 125,000 years (the last time it was ice-free?), or 65,000,000 years (another time it was ice free).


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Member Since: September 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1148
Quoting 697. SLU:
I'm getting sick to my stomach with all these comments about this being a bust season. It's just sickening.

If you want to see 30 storms and 10 major hurricanes a year, then go live in the Western Pacific.


don't worry SLU I completely understand we have impatient people trust me i work at Lowe's and i know how this blog can get during this time. So Heres the reminder to the impatient ones:
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Quoting 810. clwstmchasr:


C'mon Taz. I think we'll have something within 7 days. How are things in California?
Quoting 810. clwstmchasr:


C'mon Taz. I think we'll have something within 7 days. How are things in California?



Things are hoping well in Ca
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Quoting 798. SunriseSteeda:


I wouldn't want to speculate too hard on that graph :)

I suspect that any cycle is longer than the 50 or so years of "reliable" measurements and attention...
I would somewhat agree about the 50 year bit. But then again, scientists who study such things are pretty confident the Arctic hasn't seen such a small amount of ice for at least 8,000 years, and possibly far longer. is that long enough for you? ;-)
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Quoting 806. luvtogolf:


You know you are not allowed to post articles like that here. Anything that contradicts Global Warming will be discounted and shot down.

Please explain how that contradicts global warming. Thanks.
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Quoting 806. luvtogolf:


You know you are not allowed to post articles like that here. Anything that contradicts Global Warming will be discounted and shot down.


It doesn't contradict anything. Lol. It just needed some context, which I added, in post #783.
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Quoting 806. luvtogolf:


You know you are not allowed to post articles like that here. Anything that contradicts Global Warming will be discounted and shot down.
I don't discount it. But sometimes there are easy solutions to big problems.
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See you Guys in 2 weeks nothing going on my check in but won't. Be posting any thing there this nothing going on out there


Be back in two weeks and will see if will have some in then


Oh I saw it 1st
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Quoting 776. washingtonian115:
If anyone is interested here is a article on sea ice extent during July..Don't shoot the messenger..CWG
Link


You know you are not allowed to post articles like that here. Anything that contradicts Global Warming will be discounted and shot down.
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Pouch doing well.


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Quoting 800. unknowncomic:
Maybe scientist will think of a gas to add to the atmosphere that stops the ice melting.

They didn't think up the properties of CO2. They did the hard work necessary to establish that CO2 is a greenhouse gas. But nothing else is really necessary. The presence of increased CO2 doesn't do away with weather.
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Quoting 771. SunriseSteeda:



I was in Freeport for 5 days in June, 2005 for the Caribbean/U.S. Cornelius "Money" Williams softball tournament.

What was striking was that the damage from the previous year's Hurricane Frances was readily apparent.

The Port Lucayan resort we were staying at had been freshly repaired and repainted by the time we arrived, but on the bus trips to the various ball fields through the surrounding neighborhoods showed us a different picture altogether.

For example, I saw a hotel (Holiday Inn?) that had been severely damaged. Some concrete balconies were broken and hanging, prepared to drop at any time, exposing the skeletal structures of the building. And this was a year LATER.

And THEN they got hit by Wilma... Freeport and Grand Bahama as a whole have been impacted to a greater or lesser extent by almost every hurricane or tropical storm we've had here since Floyd in 1999, with the exception of Ike. Last year one of the two Sandy deaths we had in the Bahamas was in the Queens Cove area of Grand Bahama [IIRC] due to storm surge...

Meanwhile, despite the various systems we've seen, New Providence has had a relatively easy time with most storms in the same period...
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Quoting 752. BahaHurican:
NO... I have NO IDEA why u chose your handle... lol

BAHA
Hurican

;o)



Well I choose mine because I live down da bayou.
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Quoting 798. SunriseSteeda:


I wouldn't want to speculate too hard on that graph :)

I suspect that any cycle is longer than the 50 or so years of "reliable" measurements and attention...

What, exactly, is it that you think would be "cycling?"
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Quoting 797. Birthmark:

Neither. It is weather. Every year will not be a new record.

While a record low extent seems unlikely, volume may still set a record low...or not.
Maybe scientist will think of a gas to add to the atmosphere that stops the ice melting.
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Quoting 780. SunriseSteeda:


Now that is interesting. Could it be that sea ice-no-ice extent is cyclical and pseudo-random after all this, regardless of our travesties?

It's possible...but the probability is near zero.
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Quoting 786. Neapolitan:
You tell me:

Sea ice

That's a little premature, and kinda like asking whether the lack of a named Atlantic storm so far this month is indication that the season is over. ;-)


I wouldn't want to speculate too hard on that graph :)

I suspect that any cycle is longer than the 50 or so years of "reliable" measurements and attention...
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Quoting 779. unknowncomic:
Is this slight turnaround cyclical or caused by less gases put in the air?

Neither. It is weather. Every year will not be a new record.

While a record low extent seems unlikely, volume may still set a record low...or not.
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Quoting 792. floridaT:
but my lime tree is finally producing and they are big beautiful limes.
We have Barbados Cherry, Bananas, and a new Grapefruit tree planted after the state cut down many of the area citrus trees including our beautiful Ruby Red grapefruit tree to try to stop the spread of the citrus cancer disease.
Florida is great for growing things.
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Short nightly drop in with some stormy news from the past. Good night everyone!

Storm God Depicted on Mayan Frieze
Published: Aug 9, 2013, 3:58 PM EDT weather.com

When Francisco Estrada-Belli and his team found the ancient Mayan tableau, they knew they'd discovered something special. "For reconstructing Maya history at this time, this is really as good as it gets," Estrada-Belli told Weather.com.

That's because the newly exposed frieze - which is 26 feet by 6 feet - is covered with names and statements about the religion and politics of the time. One of the main characters depicted is called Storm God Enter the Sky (fitting given that the tropical rainforest surroundings, says Estrada-Belli, experience violent storms).

It was the icing on the cake for the Tulane University archeologist, who has been working at this particular site in Guatemala for more than 10 years. ...



Source of the photo is an Austrian report about the excavation. Click to enlarge
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 55 Comments: 6018
Quoting 777. SunriseSteeda:


And if the season were to end quietly, more like "Okay okay okay, would a 3-hour hailstorm be too much to ask?"



I don't know. You'd have to put that to the folks from Texas. I'm on the other side of the Sabine, and I would prefer no action come here at all. No TS, nada :)
Member Since: June 26, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1817
Quoting 788. islander44:
Regarding the question of seasonal bustivity:

If we have only one more storm this season, but it's the size of Sandy with the destructiveness of Camille, does that qualify as a bust?

Conversely, if we have 20 Cat 1 fish storms, where would that rate in terms of busticity?
Probably it depends on their perception. We have 5 predictors all saying the same thins... above average season.. I would call that consensus.
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Quoting 770. Naga5000:



I'm just letting my grass grow. I refuse to change my every other week schedule. My backyard Elephant Ears and ferns look like something out of Jurrasic Park this year.
but my lime tree is finally producing and they are big beautiful limes.
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Quoting 740. floridaT:
i agree remember the years the storms were all lined up like a train.


1996, when Edouard, Fran, Gustav, Hortense were strung out across the Atlantic at once.

Trying to find the year where there were like 7 storms strung out like a string of pearls across the Atlantic.

Over 12 weeks of a softball season (24 games) in Plantation, 20 games were rained out during the stretch I have in mind, many as a result of tropical activity in the area ;)


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Henriette remains a very small but well-defined tropical storm. Tropical storm-force winds extend out 45 miles from the center according to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center. Convection atop the center has been developing lately, whereas the circulation was completely exposed earlier this morning.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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