An Active Atlantic Hurricane Season Still Predicted by NOAA, CSU, and TSR

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:07 PM GMT on August 09, 2013

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As we stand on the cusp of the peak part of hurricane season, all of the major groups that perform long-range seasonal hurricane forecasts are still calling for an active 2013 Atlantic hurricane season. NOAA forecasts an above-normal and possibly very active Atlantic hurricane season in 2013, in their August 8 outlook. They give a 70% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of an near-normal season, and 5% chance of a below-normal season. They predict a 70% chance that there will be 13 - 19 named storms, 6 - 9 hurricanes, and 3 - 5 major hurricanes, with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 120% - 190% of the median. If we take the midpoint of these numbers, NOAA is calling for 16 named storms, 7.5 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 155% of normal. This is well above the 1981 - 2010 average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Hurricane seasons during the active hurricane period 1995 - 2012 have averaged 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 151% of the median.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Dorian on July 25, 2013, when the storm reached peak intensity--sustained winds of 60 mph. Formation of early-season tropical storms like Chantal and Dorian in June and July in the deep tropics is usually a harbinger of an active Atlantic hurricane season. Image credit: NASA.

NOAA cites five main reasons to expect an active remainder of hurricane season:

1) Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are above average in the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes, from the coast of Africa to the Caribbean. As of August 9, SST were 0.4°C (0.8°F) above average.
2) Trade winds are weaker than average across the MDR, which has caused the African Monsoon to grow wetter and stronger, the amount of spin over the MDR to increase, and the amount of vertical wind shear to decrease.
3) No El Niño event is present or expected this fall.
4) There have been two early-season tropical storms in the deep tropics (Tropical Storms Chantal and Dorian), which is generally a harbinger of an above-normal season.
5) We are in an active hurricane period that began in 1995.

Colorado State predicts a much above-average hurricane season
A much above-average Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2013, according to the seasonal hurricane forecast issued August 2 by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). The CSU team is calling for 18 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 142. The forecast calls for an above-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (40% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (40% chance, 30% chance is average). The risk of a major hurricane in the Caribbean is also above average, at 53% (42% is average.)

Analogue years
The CSU team picked five previous years when atmospheric and oceanic conditions were similar to what we are seeing this year: cool neutral ENSO conditions and slightly above-average tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures. Those five years were 2008, a very active year with 16 named storms and 4 major hurricanes--Gustav, Ike, Paloma, and Omar; 2007, an active year with 15 named storms and two Category 5 storms--Dean and Felix; 1996, an above average year with 13 named storms and 6 major hurricanes--Edouard, Hortense, Fran, Bertha, Isidore, and Lili; 1966, an average year with 11 named storms and 3 major hurricanes--Inez, Alma, and Faith; and 1952, a below average year with 7 named storms and 3 major hurricanes. The average activity during these five analogue years was 12.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes, and 3.8 major hurricanes.

TSR predicts an above-average hurricane season: 14.8 named storms
The August 6 forecast for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season made by British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) calls for an active season with 14.8 named storms, 6.9 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 121. The long-term averages for the past 63 years are 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an ACE of 103. TSR rates their skill level as good for these August forecasts--47% - 59% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. TSR predicts a 58% chance that U.S. land falling activity will be above average, a 26% chance it will be near average, and a 16% chance it will be below average. They project that 4 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.8 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2012 climatology are 3.1 named storms and 1.4 hurricanes. They rate their skill at making these August forecasts for U.S. landfalls just 9% - 18% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 1.4 named storms, 0.6 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

TSR's two predictors for their statistical model are the forecast July - September trade wind speed over the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic, and the forecast August - September 2013 sea surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic. Their model is calling for warmer than average SSTs and near average trade winds during these periods, and both of these factors should act to increase hurricane and tropical storm activity.


Figure 2. Comparison of the percent improvement over climatology for May and August seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 1999-2009 (May) and 1998-2009 (August), using the Mean Squared Error. Image credit: Verification of 12 years of NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts, National Hurricane Center.


Figure 3. Comparison of the percent improvement in mean square error over climatology for seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 2003-2012, using the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS). The figure shows the results using two different climatologies: a fixed 50-year (1950 - 1999) climatology, and a 2003 - 2012 climatology. Skill is poor for forecasts issued in December and April, moderate for June forecasts, and good for August forecasts. Image credit: Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.

FSU predicts an above-average hurricane season: 15 named storms
The Florida State University (FSU) Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) issued their fifth annual Atlantic hurricane season forecast on May 30, calling for a 70% probability of 12 - 17 named storms and 5 - 10 hurricanes. The mid-point forecast is for 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of 135. The scientists use a numerical atmospheric model developed at COAPS to understand seasonal predictability of hurricane activity. The model is one of only a handful of numerical models in the world being used to study seasonal hurricane activity and is different from the statistical methods used by other seasonal hurricane forecasters such as Colorado State, TSR, and PSU (NOAA uses a hybrid statistical-dynamical model technique.) The FSU forecast has been one of the best ones over the past four years:

2009 prediction: 8 named storms, 4 hurricanes. Actual: 9 named storms, 3 hurricanes
2010 prediction: 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 12 hurricanes
2011 prediction: 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 7 hurricanes
2012 prediction: 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 10 hurricanes

Penn State predicts an above-average hurricane season: 16 named storms
A statistical model by Penn State's Michael Mann and alumnus Michael Kozar is calling for an active Atlantic hurricane season with 16 named storms, plus or minus 4 storms. Their prediction was made using statistics of how past hurricane seasons have behaved in response to sea surface temperatures (SSTs), the El Niño/La Niña oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and other factors. The statistic model assumes that in 2013 the May 0.87°C above average temperatures in the MDR will persist throughout hurricane season, the El Niño phase will be neutral to slightly warm, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will be near average.

The PSU team has been making Atlantic hurricane season forecasts since 2007, and these predictions have done pretty well, except for in 2012, when an expected El Niño did not materialize:

2007 prediction: 15 named storms, Actual: 15
2009 prediction: 12.5, named storms, Actual: 9
2010 prediction: 23 named storms, Actual: 19
2011 prediction: 16 named storms, Actual: 19
2012 prediction: 10.5 named storms, Actual: 19

UK Met Office predicts a slightly above-average hurricane season: 14 named storms
The UKMET office forecast for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, issued May 13, calls for slightly above normal activity, with 14 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and an ACE index of 130. In contrast to the statistical models relied upon by CSU, TSR, and NOAA, the UKMET model is done strictly using two dynamical global seasonal prediction systems: the Met Office GloSea5 system and ECMWF system 4. In 2012, the Met Office forecast was for 10 tropical storms and an ACE index of 90. The actual numbers were 19 named storms and an ACE index of 123.


Figure 4. Total 2013 Atlantic hurricane season activity as predicted by twelve different groups.

NOAA predicts a below-average Eastern Pacific hurricane season
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 23, calls for a below-average season, with 11 - 16 named storms, 5 - 8 hurricanes, 1 - 4 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 60% - 105% of the median. The mid-point of these ranges gives us a forecast for 13.5 named storms, 6.5 hurricanes, and 2.5 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 82% of average. The 1981 - 2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.

NOAA predicts a below-average Central Pacific hurricane season
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Central Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 22, calls for a below-average season, with 1 - 3 tropical cyclones. An average season has 4 - 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes. Hawaii is the primary land area affected by Central Pacific tropical cyclones.

West Pacific typhoon season forecast not available this year
Dr. Johnny Chan of the City University of Hong Kong usually issues a seasonal forecast of typhoon season in the Western Pacific, but did not do so in 2012 or 2013. An average typhoon season has 27 named storms and 17 typhoons. Typhoon seasons immediately following a La Niña year typically see higher levels of activity in the South China Sea, especially between months of May and July. Also, the jet stream tends to dip farther south than usual to the south of Japan, helping steer more tropical cyclones towards Japan and Korea.

Quiet in the Atlantic this weekend
There are no Atlantic threat areas to discuss today, and none of the reliable models for tropical cyclone formation is predicting development during the coming seven days. However, there are some indications that the atmosphere over the tropical Atlantic will become more conducive for tropical storm formation beginning around August 15. The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, may move into the Atlantic then, increasing tropical storm formation odds. At the same time, the computer models are indicating an increase in moisture over the tropical Atlantic, due to a series of tropical waves expected to push off of the coast of Africa. There will also be several eastward-moving Convectively-Coupled Kelvin Waves (CCKWs) traversing the Atlantic during that period. These atmospheric disturbances have a great deal of upward-moving air, which helps strengthen the updrafts of tropical disturbances. Formation of the Eastern Pacific's Hurricane Gil and Henriette were aided by CCKWs. These same CCKWs will cross into the Atlantic and increase the odds of tropical storm formation during the period August 15 - 20.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 880. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Isabel as an annular hurricane:

Link


Isabel has to be the best annular hurricane I've seen, imo.
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11W UTOR MODERATE CYCLONE WARNING

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TEN SIGNS OF A WARMING WORLD

NOAA

The 2009 State of the Climate report served as a basis for the poster and this website. This report draws on data for 10 key climate indicators that all point to the same finding: the scientific evidence that our world is warming is unmistakable. More than 300 scientists from 160 research groups in 48 countries contributed to the report, which confirms that the past decade was the warmest on record and that the Earth has been growing warmer over the last 50 years.
This set of indicators was selected, as we would unambiguously expect them to increase or decrease if the world were warming. In a warming world, based upon simple physical principles we would expect some indicators to increase land surface air temperature, sea-surface temperature, marine air temperature, sea level, tropospheric temperature, ocean heat content and specific humidity.

Conversely, we would expect the following indicators to decline: snow cover, sea-ice extent, glacier mass, and stratospheric temperatures. Stratospheric temperature decline is also influenced by ozone depletion.

Click here for a 10 page summary or full supplemental package.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
Quoting SLU:
I'm getting sick to my stomach with all these comments about this being a bust season. It's just sickening.

If you want to see 30 storms and 10 major hurricanes a year, then go live in the Western Pacific.




I think you are missing the point. They could care less of an above average season if they don't get a monster aiming at their home. Fish storms won't count or a hurricane hitting Mexico.
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Water leaks at Fukushima nuclear plant could contaminate entire Pacific Ocean
Posted on August 9, 2013 by The Extinction Protocol
August 9, 2013 – JAPAN - Two and a half years after the Fukushima tragedy Japan does not want to admit how serious it is, but it is obvious the drastic environmental implications are to follow, Harvey Wasserman, journalist and advocate for renewable energy, told RT.
RT: Japanese officials have admitted a leak at Fukushima has been happening for two years and is worse than earlier thought. Why did it take so long to evaluate the actual repercussions of the tragedy and take decisive measures to tackle them?
HW: The Japanese authorities have been covering up the true depth of the disaster because they don’t want to embarrass themselves and the global nuclear industry and they are trying to open up another nuclear plant in Japan. When the Japanese people now find out that the accident is worse than we thought and they have been leaking many tons of radioactive water into the Pacific Ocean for almost two and a half years, this is a catastrophe. Tokyo Electric has no idea how to control this accident. This is absolutely terrifying after two and a half years. To find out that these reactors have been out of control, now that they can’t control this they don’t know what’s going on. This is not a primitive backward country; this is Japan with advanced technology. It has very serious implications for nuclear power all over the world............

Link
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Quoting 881. Catherdr:


It's a breeder reactor, so we might expect it's design to be experimental and the method of construction a bit different. May be many odd irradiated parts and unintentional isotopes lurking in it. Plus, it's in France and their government is different from ours.


Catherdr - thanks for the info.
Member Since: June 26, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1817
Quoting 874. SunriseSteeda:


I would think the cyanide analogy wouldn't work very well, since there is no documentation that cyanide has changed in lethality over the period of human existence.

Climate however, IS changing (and has been over our entire documented existence). And are we not seeing weather-related events and trends now that we consider unique in our documented history? This surely means that things either are moving "linearly" in one direction or is part of a cycle (much) longer than we have experienced and measured.

That is the heart of the matter.

I also, as a scientist (and aware of what I do NOT know), ask "What actually happens when we hit the max limit of CO2 saturation of our atmosphere? Because there is certainly a maximum, thus something has to happen."


It's pretty unlikely that we'll hit any limit for CO2 in our atmosphere. We don't have enough fossil fuels to accomplish that task...fortunately.

Any long-term cycle that might seriously mitigate AGW should have put in an appearance somewhere in the geologic record. So far, there isn't any evidence that such a cycle exists that applies in this case. (Milankovitch cycles can under other circumstances, but are running in the opposite direction currently.) So any long-term cycles that do exist are probably trivial compared to the CO2 forcing and its attendant feedbacks.

Edit to add: Thanks for a civil discussion without talking points and rancor.
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Quoting 880. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Isabel as an annular hurricane:



An annular tropical cyclone, also known as a truck tire or doughnut hurricane, is a tropical cyclone that features a large, symmetric eye surrounded by a thick ring of intense convection.[1] This type of storm is not prone to the fluctuations in intensity associated with eyewall replacement cycles, unlike typical intense tropical cyclones. Annular tropical cyclones also tend to persist, even when encountering environmental conditions which easily dissipate most other tropical cyclones

Some of the conditions associated with annular tropical cyclones are:
An intensity 85% or greater from their theoretical maximum potential intensity,
Weak wind shear from the east or southeast,
A cold east wind at a high altitude (the 200 mbar pressure level),
Near-constant sea surface temperatures between 25.4 °C and 28.5 °C, and
Lack of relative eddy flux convergence at the 200 mbar pressure level, relative to the storm

Link


For such a destructive thing, it is so beautiful thing to look at.
Member Since: July 31, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 925
Quoting 876. Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Waterboy


And that right there is the best post of the day. Thanks for the laugh :)

On that note I'm signing off. Good night all.
Member Since: June 26, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1817
Quoting 851. LAbonbon:


I wonder why it would take so long to dismantle it? CT Yankee in Connecticut ceased production in 1996, was decommissioned in 2004, and was demo'd by 2006. Since I know next to nothing about nuke plants, it may be comparing apples to oranges, but it just seems like an awfully long time.


It's a breeder reactor, so we might expect it's design to be experimental and the method of construction a bit different. May be many odd irradiated parts and unintentional isotopes lurking in it. Plus, it's in France and their government is different from ours.
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Isabel as an annular hurricane:



An annular tropical cyclone, also known as a truck tire or doughnut hurricane, is a tropical cyclone that features a large, symmetric eye surrounded by a thick ring of intense convection.[1] This type of storm is not prone to the fluctuations in intensity associated with eyewall replacement cycles, unlike typical intense tropical cyclones. Annular tropical cyclones also tend to persist, even when encountering environmental conditions which easily dissipate most other tropical cyclones

Some of the conditions associated with annular tropical cyclones are:
An intensity 85% or greater from their theoretical maximum potential intensity,
Weak wind shear from the east or southeast,
A cold east wind at a high altitude (the 200 mbar pressure level),
Near-constant sea surface temperatures between 25.4 °C and 28.5 °C, and
Lack of relative eddy flux convergence at the 200 mbar pressure level, relative to the storm

Link
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8436
Once we passed 350, to 400 ppm currently,in 50 some odd years, my life, the trend up was 90 ppm,and is steep from here.

The premise of any Limit is false, and if we raise the Global Avg Temp, 4C n the next 100-150 years, it runs away from there.


We may the lose Arctic Summer Ice as early as 2017.

The Northern Jet Stream is as wacky as a Stretched out Slinky as well.


397.23ppm


Atmospheric CO2 for July 2013



co2now.org
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
Quoting 868. Neapolitan:
Because sea ice melts as the water atop which it floats warms. And the oceans are warming at a very rapid rate thanks to our pumping of 3.4 million surplus tons of heat-trapping CO2 into the atmosphere each and every hour of each and every day. Since that amount is only increasing with no end in sight, and since the laws of physics are what they are, there's zero chance that sea ice will ignore that warming and somehow refreeze. At least not anytime soon...



I especially like the last bit "at least not anytime soon...". That's kinda what I am aiming at. The abstract we-are-on-arc-of-a-long-cycle but haven't made a circuit yet. We just get to be stupid and irresponsible and speed or wobble our path along that arc.


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Quoting 864. unknowncomic:
Football player?


Waterboy
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Quoting 872. Lonewulf:


No thanks. I lived through Hugo and about 7 other hurricanes in the last 25 years. I've been in the direct path of 4 of those, and while watching them is intense, the damage they leave behind is worse. I won't say I've had it worse than anyone else, I'll leave that to the Katrina and Andrew survivors, but going without power for 15 days is bad enough for me. (Isabel, 2003, Va)
I agree. It seemed like fun until I actually experienced one first hand where the eye went directly over(Wilma) and realized this is not something to wish for.
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Quoting 848. Birthmark:

Despite complexity, solid conclusions can be drawn. In the case of humans, it is a fact that cyanide will kill unless it is counteracted by whatever it is they use as an antidote. There's no way around it.

In the case of climate, adding CO2 to the atmosphere will result in more energy staying on Earth. That means more warmth. There's no getting around that. No cycles prevented CO2 from warming the Earth previously. There is no reason to believe that some cycle or other will prevent warming this time, either. Nor is there any evidence that that will be the case.


I would think the cyanide analogy wouldn't work very well, since there is no documentation that cyanide has changed in lethality over the period of human existence.

Climate however, IS changing (and has been over our entire documented existence). And are we not seeing weather-related events and trends now that we consider unique in our documented history? This surely means that things either are moving "linearly" in one direction or is part of a cycle (much) longer than we have experienced and measured.

That is the heart of the matter.

I also, as a scientist (and aware of what I do NOT know), ask "What actually happens when we hit the max limit of CO2 saturation of our atmosphere? Because there is certainly a maximum, thus something has to happen."

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A Growing Sense of Urgency - Bill Richardson (Former U.S. Energy Secretary, Governor of New Mexico and UN Ambassador)


As I prepare to take part in an event on hurricanes and extreme weather in Miami, Florida later today, it's clear just how much climate change threatens the state's local communities. Florida is the most vulnerable U.S. state to sea-level rise, with seas projected to rise along the state's coast by as much as 2 feet by 2060 -- threatening valuable infrastructure, homes, and communities. Even Superstorm Sandy - which had the greatest impacts in New York and New Jersey -- caused significant damages along Florida's east coast while centered miles offshore. Rising seas contributed to Sandy's storm surge and tidal surges, causing flooding throughout Miami-Dade County and sweeping away portions of State Road A1A in Fort Lauderdale.

But as overly concerned as I am of the climate change impacts Florida faces, I'm also encouraged. Florida has something that few other states have: A bipartisan collaboration to address global warming's disastrous impacts.

The carbon pollution we continue pumping into the atmosphere is already causing our air and oceans to warm, glaciers and ice sheets to melt, and sea levels to rise at alarming rates. Increasingly warming oceans and melting ice are yielding rising sea levels that not only provide a springboard for storm surge to reach further inland, but also fuel hurricanes like Sandy with additional energy - threatening more of our coastal communities.

Regarded as by far the most vulnerable state to sea-level rise, Florida is also home to the most vulnerable city to sea-level rise in the United States -- Miami. By choosing to stay on our carbon-intensive path, seas will only continue rising, further increasing the vulnerability of cities like Miami to costly damages associated with extreme weather and sea-level rise.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
Quoting 871. unknowncomic:
Looks like an eye on UTOR. Aiming for the Phillipines. That is one of the best places to be for those who want to experience a cyclone...happens once or twice a year it seems.


No thanks. I lived through Hugo and about 7 other hurricanes in the last 25 years. I've been in the direct path of 4 of those, and while watching them is intense, the damage they leave behind is worse. I won't say I've had it worse than anyone else, I'll leave that to the Katrina and Andrew survivors, but going without power for 15 days is bad enough for me. (Isabel, 2003, Va)
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Looks like an eye on UTOR. Aiming for the Phillipines. That is one of the best places to be for those who want to experience a cyclone...happens once or twice a year it seems.



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Quoting 862. Tygor:


Please don't jinx it. I haven't seen a cloud in literally three weeks, and been over 100 degrees most of that time.

High pressure is moving away from us...it would Allow it to come.
Member Since: September 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1148
Quoting 867. EyEtoEyE:
Good Night All ! My uncle is home from the hospital , still not sure about him, I hope we have something to track next week !
Good to hear he's back.
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Quoting 854. SunriseSteeda:


Perhaps my point needs to be clearer, but I don't want to get into a GW debate. Let's just leave it at "yes, we haven't been around that long, so how can we be sure that sea ice, for example, won't return to it's historic levels regardless of our interference?". We can speculate and predict all we like. It is not fact until we can verify it over a *much* longer period of time.

Because sea ice melts as the water atop which it floats warms. And the oceans are warming at a very rapid rate thanks to our pumping of 3.4 million surplus tons of heat-trapping CO2 into the atmosphere each and every hour of each and every day. Since that amount is only increasing with no end in sight, and since the laws of physics are what they are, there's zero chance that sea ice will ignore that warming and somehow refreeze. At least not anytime soon...
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Good Night All ! My uncle is home from the hospital , still not sure about him, I hope we have something to track next week !
Member Since: July 6, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 460
866. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting 861. Tropicsweatherpr:


That is La Nina territory.

You would think with those Kelvin waves.. I was half expecting it up a touch.
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Quoting 854. SunriseSteeda:


Perhaps my point needs to be clearer, but I don't want to get into a GW debate. Let's just leave it at "yes, we haven't been around that long, so how can we be sure that sea ice, for example, won't return to it's historic levels regardless of our interference?". We can speculate and predict all we like. It is not fact until we can verify it over a *much* longer period of time.


That is simply put, wrong. It is a fact that CO2 is a GHG. It is a fact that CO2 has been increasing rapidly due to humans burning fossil fuel.

The very fact that Arctic sea ice has declined by 80% over a thirty year period is a strong indication that AGW theory is correct.

Appeals to what we don't know or what might be fly in the face of reason when one considers the evidence at hand.
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Quoting 853. Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I think that my handle should be self explanatory. ..... I was drafted into it! :)
Football player?
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863. Skyepony (Mod)
TRMM of UTOR earlier.

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862. Tygor
Quoting 824. Stormchaser121:

Looks TX bound!


Please don't jinx it. I haven't seen a cloud in literally three weeks, and been over 100 degrees most of that time.
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Quoting 860. Skyepony:
ESPI is down to -3.09 wow.


That is La Nina territory.
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860. Skyepony (Mod)
ESPI is down to -3.09 wow.
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Quoting 855. TheDawnAwakening:



Powerful tropical cyclone unfolding, low level banding, CDO, and radial outflow all support a major typhoon developing before landfall on the Philippines.


I really hope the people in the Philippenes are preparing as this could be a big disaster there.
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858. Skyepony (Mod)
~
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857. vis0

Quoting 116. Grothar:


And I have to go to the doctors in a little while to see if I am going to live or die. I guess I will have to postpone it.
sending prayers

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856. Skyepony (Mod)
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
524 PM EDT FRI AUG 09 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0330 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 S SEBRING 27.43N 81.45W
08/09/2013 HIGHLANDS FL EMERGENCY MNGR

HIGHLANDS EMERGENECY MANAGER REPORTED ROOF DAMAGE TO 6 OR
7 HOMES IN LAKE JOSEPHINE. ONE HOME ON LEONA DR. IS
MISSING THE MAJORITY OF ITS ROOF.
TREES...POWERLINES...AND A FEW CARPORTS HAVE BEEN BLOWN
DOWN AS WELL.
TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.


&&

$$

MCKAUGHAN
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Quoting 852. MiamiHurricanes09:
1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (UTOR) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 13.6N 130.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6N 130.5E



Powerful tropical cyclone unfolding, low level banding, CDO, and radial outflow all support a major typhoon developing before landfall on the Philippines.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 246 Comments: 3947
Quoting 837. Birthmark:

That's irrelevant since humans have existed for only ~0.06% of the Earth's existence. Agriculture has existed for only a small fraction of human existence. Industrial agriculture, upon which we all depend, has existed for an even smaller fraction of that time -it's practically a newborn.

That's where one of the major problems of AGW is. It's not going to get too hot for humans to exist (probably). But AGW might very well make it impossible to grow enough food to feed the 7 billion of us that are here now, much less the billions that we'll add in the future.

So, the age of the Earth is largely irrelevant.


Perhaps my point needs to be clearer, but I don't want to get into a GW debate. Let's just leave it at "yes, we haven't been around that long, so how can we be sure that sea ice, for example, won't return to its historic levels regardless of our interference?". We can speculate and predict all we like. It is not fact until we can verify it over a *much* longer period of time.

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Quoting 745. unknowncomic:
Since we have extra time on our hands, I chose this handle because:

1)Some of the people on this site need some comedy (if you know what I mean)--though am not a comedian by trade, mind you.
2) The comedian with a similar name from the Gong show in the 1980's was someone that made me laugh like crazy in a very dark time of my life.

Thank you for your support and carry on.


I think that my handle should be self explanatory. ..... I was drafted into it! :)
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1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (UTOR) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 13.6N 130.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6N 130.5E
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Quoting 845. Skyepony:
Nuclear Event in France on Friday, 09 August, 2013 at 03:25 (03:25 AM) UTC.
Description
An incident at a closed nuclear power plant in eastern France generated a lot of smoke on Thursday, but won't have an impact on the environment, officials said. The smoke developed at the Superphoenix fast breeder reactor at Creys-Malville near the border with Switzerland in a room where sodium was stored, according to officials. The incident was under control at 9:00 pm (1900 GMT), they said. "The accident happened in the non-nuclear part of the site and there were no flames," plant director Veronique Bouilly said. The Rhone-Alpes regional nuclear watchdog said the incident would "not have any consequences". The dismantlement of the Creys-Malville reactor is expected to be wound up by 2025, after the socialist government under then prime minister Lionel Jospin decided its closure in June 1997 for ecological reasons and excessive costs.


I wonder why it would take so long to dismantle it? CT Yankee in Connecticut ceased production in 1996, was decommissioned in 2004, and was demo'd by 2006. Since I know next to nothing about nuke plants, it may be comparing apples to oranges, but it just seems like an awfully long time.
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850. Skyepony (Mod)
Another 8hrs til it gets to it's warmest water & less than 48hrs to landfall..
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Quoting 847. Skyepony:
UTOR pulling it together. Click pic for loop.


Impressive loop. Shows a rapidly expanding and intensifying system.
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Quoting 842. SunriseSteeda:


As in all large complex systems, one cannot draw irrefutably correct conclusions unless you can claim expertise in the domain of that system.

We are getting smarter, but we are no where close to claiming expertise on the domain of our own bodies (a complex system in and of itself), let alone the climatological and cosmic systems that we are trying to observe and become experts in.

And as with all super-complex systems, it truly CAN be coincidental when we "predict" something will happen, and it does.


Despite complexity, solid conclusions can be drawn. In the case of humans, it is a fact that cyanide will kill unless it is counteracted by whatever it is they use as an antidote. There's no way around it.

In the case of climate, adding CO2 to the atmosphere will result in more energy staying on Earth. That means more warmth. There's no getting around that. No cycles prevented CO2 from warming the Earth previously. There is no reason to believe that some cycle or other will prevent warming this time, either. Nor is there any evidence that that will be the case.
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847. Skyepony (Mod)
UTOR pulling it together. Click pic for loop.
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Excellent structure.

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845. Skyepony (Mod)
Nuclear Event in France on Friday, 09 August, 2013 at 03:25 (03:25 AM) UTC.
Description
An incident at a closed nuclear power plant in eastern France generated a lot of smoke on Thursday, but won't have an impact on the environment, officials said. The smoke developed at the Superphoenix fast breeder reactor at Creys-Malville near the border with Switzerland in a room where sodium was stored, according to officials. The incident was under control at 9:00 pm (1900 GMT), they said. "The accident happened in the non-nuclear part of the site and there were no flames," plant director Veronique Bouilly said. The Rhone-Alpes regional nuclear watchdog said the incident would "not have any consequences". The dismantlement of the Creys-Malville reactor is expected to be wound up by 2025, after the socialist government under then prime minister Lionel Jospin decided its closure in June 1997 for ecological reasons and excessive costs.
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Quoting 841. TropicalAnalystwx13:
It will take a while for the JMA to declare it as such, but Utor is likely nearing typhoon status.

P.S. look at the banding!



Radial outflow is as perfect as it needs to be for major hurricane status, but the question remains can he have enough time to reach super typhoon status.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 246 Comments: 3947
It's very humorous , what other bloggers say is going to be a bust of a season , it is ridiculous , I think the #s are going , to pan out , despite what others think !
Member Since: July 6, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 460
Quoting 823. Birthmark:

Lots of things *could* be happening. However, I'm a big fan of valid evidence as opposed to rank speculation. What we have is less melting (so far) this year than last. The weather sufficiently explains the observed difference without having to invoke cycles.

But any such cycle concerning the Arctic sea ice would be astonishingly convenient since the melting was predicted long before it became an observed fact. That would be a mighty coincidental cycle. Again, possible, but a near zero chance.


As in all large complex systems, one cannot draw irrefutably correct conclusions unless you can claim expertise in the domain of that system.

We are getting smarter, but we are no where close to claiming expertise on the domain of our own bodies (a complex system in and of itself), let alone the climatological and cosmic systems that we are trying to observe and become experts in.

And as with all super-complex systems, it truly CAN be coincidental when we "predict" something will happen, and it does.

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It will take a while for the JMA to declare it as such, but Utor is likely nearing typhoon status.

P.S. look at the banding!

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If anyone's interested, here's a short web briefing from NWS-Springfield, MO, regarding rainfall events and totals this past week, for the Missouri/Kansas/Arkansas area. It's a bit dry (no pun intended), but the sheer total amounts are higher than I expected (15+ in in some places). Looks like they finally have the rain clearing out later tomorrow.

Link
Member Since: June 26, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1817

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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