An Active Atlantic Hurricane Season Still Predicted by NOAA, CSU, and TSR

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:07 PM GMT on August 09, 2013

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As we stand on the cusp of the peak part of hurricane season, all of the major groups that perform long-range seasonal hurricane forecasts are still calling for an active 2013 Atlantic hurricane season. NOAA forecasts an above-normal and possibly very active Atlantic hurricane season in 2013, in their August 8 outlook. They give a 70% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of an near-normal season, and 5% chance of a below-normal season. They predict a 70% chance that there will be 13 - 19 named storms, 6 - 9 hurricanes, and 3 - 5 major hurricanes, with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 120% - 190% of the median. If we take the midpoint of these numbers, NOAA is calling for 16 named storms, 7.5 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 155% of normal. This is well above the 1981 - 2010 average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Hurricane seasons during the active hurricane period 1995 - 2012 have averaged 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 151% of the median.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Dorian on July 25, 2013, when the storm reached peak intensity--sustained winds of 60 mph. Formation of early-season tropical storms like Chantal and Dorian in June and July in the deep tropics is usually a harbinger of an active Atlantic hurricane season. Image credit: NASA.

NOAA cites five main reasons to expect an active remainder of hurricane season:

1) Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are above average in the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes, from the coast of Africa to the Caribbean. As of August 9, SST were 0.4°C (0.8°F) above average.
2) Trade winds are weaker than average across the MDR, which has caused the African Monsoon to grow wetter and stronger, the amount of spin over the MDR to increase, and the amount of vertical wind shear to decrease.
3) No El Niño event is present or expected this fall.
4) There have been two early-season tropical storms in the deep tropics (Tropical Storms Chantal and Dorian), which is generally a harbinger of an above-normal season.
5) We are in an active hurricane period that began in 1995.

Colorado State predicts a much above-average hurricane season
A much above-average Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2013, according to the seasonal hurricane forecast issued August 2 by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). The CSU team is calling for 18 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 142. The forecast calls for an above-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (40% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (40% chance, 30% chance is average). The risk of a major hurricane in the Caribbean is also above average, at 53% (42% is average.)

Analogue years
The CSU team picked five previous years when atmospheric and oceanic conditions were similar to what we are seeing this year: cool neutral ENSO conditions and slightly above-average tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures. Those five years were 2008, a very active year with 16 named storms and 4 major hurricanes--Gustav, Ike, Paloma, and Omar; 2007, an active year with 15 named storms and two Category 5 storms--Dean and Felix; 1996, an above average year with 13 named storms and 6 major hurricanes--Edouard, Hortense, Fran, Bertha, Isidore, and Lili; 1966, an average year with 11 named storms and 3 major hurricanes--Inez, Alma, and Faith; and 1952, a below average year with 7 named storms and 3 major hurricanes. The average activity during these five analogue years was 12.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes, and 3.8 major hurricanes.

TSR predicts an above-average hurricane season: 14.8 named storms
The August 6 forecast for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season made by British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) calls for an active season with 14.8 named storms, 6.9 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 121. The long-term averages for the past 63 years are 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an ACE of 103. TSR rates their skill level as good for these August forecasts--47% - 59% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. TSR predicts a 58% chance that U.S. land falling activity will be above average, a 26% chance it will be near average, and a 16% chance it will be below average. They project that 4 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.8 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2012 climatology are 3.1 named storms and 1.4 hurricanes. They rate their skill at making these August forecasts for U.S. landfalls just 9% - 18% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 1.4 named storms, 0.6 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

TSR's two predictors for their statistical model are the forecast July - September trade wind speed over the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic, and the forecast August - September 2013 sea surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic. Their model is calling for warmer than average SSTs and near average trade winds during these periods, and both of these factors should act to increase hurricane and tropical storm activity.


Figure 2. Comparison of the percent improvement over climatology for May and August seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 1999-2009 (May) and 1998-2009 (August), using the Mean Squared Error. Image credit: Verification of 12 years of NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts, National Hurricane Center.


Figure 3. Comparison of the percent improvement in mean square error over climatology for seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 2003-2012, using the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS). The figure shows the results using two different climatologies: a fixed 50-year (1950 - 1999) climatology, and a 2003 - 2012 climatology. Skill is poor for forecasts issued in December and April, moderate for June forecasts, and good for August forecasts. Image credit: Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.

FSU predicts an above-average hurricane season: 15 named storms
The Florida State University (FSU) Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) issued their fifth annual Atlantic hurricane season forecast on May 30, calling for a 70% probability of 12 - 17 named storms and 5 - 10 hurricanes. The mid-point forecast is for 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of 135. The scientists use a numerical atmospheric model developed at COAPS to understand seasonal predictability of hurricane activity. The model is one of only a handful of numerical models in the world being used to study seasonal hurricane activity and is different from the statistical methods used by other seasonal hurricane forecasters such as Colorado State, TSR, and PSU (NOAA uses a hybrid statistical-dynamical model technique.) The FSU forecast has been one of the best ones over the past four years:

2009 prediction: 8 named storms, 4 hurricanes. Actual: 9 named storms, 3 hurricanes
2010 prediction: 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 12 hurricanes
2011 prediction: 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 7 hurricanes
2012 prediction: 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 10 hurricanes

Penn State predicts an above-average hurricane season: 16 named storms
A statistical model by Penn State's Michael Mann and alumnus Michael Kozar is calling for an active Atlantic hurricane season with 16 named storms, plus or minus 4 storms. Their prediction was made using statistics of how past hurricane seasons have behaved in response to sea surface temperatures (SSTs), the El Niño/La Niña oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and other factors. The statistic model assumes that in 2013 the May 0.87°C above average temperatures in the MDR will persist throughout hurricane season, the El Niño phase will be neutral to slightly warm, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will be near average.

The PSU team has been making Atlantic hurricane season forecasts since 2007, and these predictions have done pretty well, except for in 2012, when an expected El Niño did not materialize:

2007 prediction: 15 named storms, Actual: 15
2009 prediction: 12.5, named storms, Actual: 9
2010 prediction: 23 named storms, Actual: 19
2011 prediction: 16 named storms, Actual: 19
2012 prediction: 10.5 named storms, Actual: 19

UK Met Office predicts a slightly above-average hurricane season: 14 named storms
The UKMET office forecast for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, issued May 13, calls for slightly above normal activity, with 14 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and an ACE index of 130. In contrast to the statistical models relied upon by CSU, TSR, and NOAA, the UKMET model is done strictly using two dynamical global seasonal prediction systems: the Met Office GloSea5 system and ECMWF system 4. In 2012, the Met Office forecast was for 10 tropical storms and an ACE index of 90. The actual numbers were 19 named storms and an ACE index of 123.


Figure 4. Total 2013 Atlantic hurricane season activity as predicted by twelve different groups.

NOAA predicts a below-average Eastern Pacific hurricane season
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 23, calls for a below-average season, with 11 - 16 named storms, 5 - 8 hurricanes, 1 - 4 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 60% - 105% of the median. The mid-point of these ranges gives us a forecast for 13.5 named storms, 6.5 hurricanes, and 2.5 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 82% of average. The 1981 - 2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.

NOAA predicts a below-average Central Pacific hurricane season
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Central Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 22, calls for a below-average season, with 1 - 3 tropical cyclones. An average season has 4 - 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes. Hawaii is the primary land area affected by Central Pacific tropical cyclones.

West Pacific typhoon season forecast not available this year
Dr. Johnny Chan of the City University of Hong Kong usually issues a seasonal forecast of typhoon season in the Western Pacific, but did not do so in 2012 or 2013. An average typhoon season has 27 named storms and 17 typhoons. Typhoon seasons immediately following a La Niña year typically see higher levels of activity in the South China Sea, especially between months of May and July. Also, the jet stream tends to dip farther south than usual to the south of Japan, helping steer more tropical cyclones towards Japan and Korea.

Quiet in the Atlantic this weekend
There are no Atlantic threat areas to discuss today, and none of the reliable models for tropical cyclone formation is predicting development during the coming seven days. However, there are some indications that the atmosphere over the tropical Atlantic will become more conducive for tropical storm formation beginning around August 15. The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, may move into the Atlantic then, increasing tropical storm formation odds. At the same time, the computer models are indicating an increase in moisture over the tropical Atlantic, due to a series of tropical waves expected to push off of the coast of Africa. There will also be several eastward-moving Convectively-Coupled Kelvin Waves (CCKWs) traversing the Atlantic during that period. These atmospheric disturbances have a great deal of upward-moving air, which helps strengthen the updrafts of tropical disturbances. Formation of the Eastern Pacific's Hurricane Gil and Henriette were aided by CCKWs. These same CCKWs will cross into the Atlantic and increase the odds of tropical storm formation during the period August 15 - 20.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 933. SuperStorm093:
Yeah to whoever said that was a dangerous setup, the US wouldnt see a lot of damage from that, storms would go south of the US into the Caribbean and mexico.



The US doesn't need to see damage for that to be a dangerous setup, the Caribbean Sea islands have people too who could be greatly affected by hurricanes forming in the MDR.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 248 Comments: 3970
Quoting 934. TheDawnAwakening:



I think the fact that this person thinks someone wishes someone else gets pain from a storm is ridiculous.


I've explained it so much to the point where I'm sick of it. If people are too ignorant to understand something so simplistic, I suppose that's on them.
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Quoting 926. SLU:



The 588 line pretty much shows the direction the storms will go. They may have a hard time reaching the US with a setup like this.



Just depends on the strength. The 588 line is not necessarily a steering line for all TCs.
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Quoting 931. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Where are y'all going? Can I come?


Well, I don't know where he's going, but me and my brother are going to the French Quarter from the 23rd through 25th of this month, assuming no hurricane threats.

Come along!
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Quoting 926. SLU:



The 588 line pretty much shows the direction the storms will go. They may have a hard time reaching the US with a setup like this.

Looks like a zonal flow. They show go generally west until a weakness, say from a trough.
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Quoting 932. weatherman994:
hurricanes2018 Tim is a great qb.

who is tim!!!
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Quoting 929. KoritheMan:


lol, here we go.



I think the fact that this person thinks someone wishes someone else gets pain from a storm is ridiculous.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 248 Comments: 3970
Yeah to whoever said that was a dangerous setup, the US wouldnt see a lot of damage from that, storms would go south of the US into the Caribbean and mexico.
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hurricanes2018 Tim is a great qb.
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Quoting 929. KoritheMan:


lol, here we go.

Where are y'all going? Can I come?
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Quoting 919. llpj04:
someone on here said of Dorian "I hope we get a good storm out of this"  I cringed.  Now again I see the topic being discussed.
 It is hard for me to understand why anyone would want such a thing to happen. Sure they happen regardless of what we want BUT they kill & cost so much for people that don't qualify for handouts & can't afford to pay for a week vacation.
They also drive up our insurance & the electric company tacks a 15 to 30 dollar charge to your electricity bill to pay for the cost of repairing the lines. We are still paying for Katrina & Gustav on our bill.  It is just like wishing for a big tornado, or forest fire or earthquake to me but no one gets on here wishing for those. I would move if I could but I can't ........so plot, chart & discuss away but PLEASE don't act like you take pleasure in someone else's pain.  


lol, here we go.
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Quoting 927. Civicane49:


Silly ADT.


Lol, that's hilarious
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 248 Comments: 3970
Quoting 924. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Lol no. That's not where the center goes, ADT.



Silly ADT.
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926. SLU
Quoting 895. MississippiWx:
Yikes. Looks like the GFS ensembles are picking up on a pretty dangerous pattern as we head into the last half of August. This is not the 500mb setup that you want to see in the peak of the season with anomalous ridging over SE Canada and lower heights over the Central part of the country.




The 588 line pretty much shows the direction the storms will go. They may have a hard time reaching the US with a setup like this.

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Quoting 905. SunriseSteeda:



I don't think you cannot ever claim as fact that which has not been verified over a reasonable amount of time, when that which is measured varies over time.

We won't be burning fossil fuels forever. Even children learn to stop crapping their diapers eventually. The ice won't be gone forever, either.

The properties of CO2 have been observed long enough to be verified --in the lab, on Earth, and on other planets. That CO2 is a GHG is beyond all but a perverse doubt, using Sagan's phrase.

The ice need not be gone forever (and I doubt anyone thinks it will be gone forever). It needs only be gone a part of every year to have drastic effects throughout the Northern Hemisphere.
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Lol no. That's not where the center goes, ADT.

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Quoting 919. llpj04:
someone on here said of Dorian "I hope we get a good storm out of this"  I cringed.  Now again I see the topic being discussed.
 It is hard for me to understand why anyone would want such a thing to happen. Sure they happen regardless of what we want BUT they kill & cost so much for people that don't qualify for handouts & can't afford to pay for a week vacation.
They also drive up our insurance & the electric company tacks a 15 to 30 dollar charge to your electricity bill to pay for the cost of repairing the lines. We are still paying for Katrina & Gustav on our bill.  It is just like wishing for a big tornado, or forest fire or earthquake to me but no one gets on here wishing for those. I would move if I could but I can't ........so plot, chart & discuss away but PLEASE don't act like you take pleasure in someone else's pain.  



I don't get posts like this. You know this is a science blog. We are science enthusiasts who love tropical cyclones, of course some are going to say they wish that we had hurricanes to track, because of the science behind these monster storms. We understand the dangers behind them all, we are well aware of the epic disasters they cause, but we love the predictability or unpredictability of these monsters of the sea. It is the destruction behind these storms that fuel us to better understand the science and physics of these storms of nature, so just because someone wish casts a storm or says they want a storm remember we are on a science blog and people will share their frustrations that there is no activity to track in the tropics, but no one wishes harm on another person.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 248 Comments: 3970
Quoting 892. hurricanes2018:
no tropical storm or hurricanes for the next 10 days!
204 hours will notting going on!
Trust me that wont last long. especially with a uptick MJO
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Extremely warm waters east of the Philippines should help Utor to become a powerful typhoon before reaching Luzon in the next 36-48 hours.

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Quoting 913. TheDawnAwakening:
TS Utor will possibly be a category four or five super typhoon by the time he reaches Luzon, Philippines. Could be a devastating impact on that island. Utor has strait ions in its cirrus outflow pattern on the south side of the cyclone's cloud canopy indicative of rapidly intensifying hurricanes.

The initial forecast for Utor had it hitting Luzon as a strong Category 3 and had it peaking as a category 4 in the South China Sea before making landfall in China. I don't understand why they changed it so much.
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someone on here said of Dorian "I hope we get a good storm out of this"  I cringed.  Now again I see the topic being discussed.
 It is hard for me to understand why anyone would want such a thing to happen. Sure they happen regardless of what we want BUT they kill & cost so much for people that don't qualify for handouts & can't afford to pay for a week vacation.
They also drive up our insurance & the electric company tacks a 15 to 30 dollar charge to your electricity bill to pay for the cost of repairing the lines. We are still paying for Katrina & Gustav on our bill.  It is just like wishing for a big tornado, or forest fire or earthquake to me but no one gets on here wishing for those. I would move if I could but I can't ........so plot, chart & discuss away but PLEASE don't act like you take pleasure in someone else's pain.  
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HE IS BACK!!NFL!! UPDATE!! Tebow sees action as Patriots roll

Tim Tebow filled in for an injured Ryan Mallett and led the Patriots on a second-half scoring drive in a win highlighted by LeGarrette Blount's 100 yards rushing.
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Utor is beautiful to look at especially with the eye clearing out, and hot towers going up in the southwestern eyewall of the future typhoon.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 248 Comments: 3970
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082013
500 PM HST FRI AUG 09 2013

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FLARE UP NEAR THE APPARENT LOW LEVEL
CENTER OF HENRIETTE. THE OVERALL APPEARANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAINS PRETTY MUCH
UNCHANGED WITH A CI OF 3.5 THUS WE WILL KEEP THE SYSTEM AT 55 KT
FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 260/14 KT. GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED...INDICATING A MOTION SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST THROUGH
72 HOURS...AS HENRIETTE MOVES ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE LATEST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF
THE PREVIOUS TRACK...BUT FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST TRACK EVENTUALLY TAKES HENRIETTE OVER
INCREASINGLY WARMER WATERS...THE EFFECTS OF PERSISTENT AND
INCREASING SHEAR ON THIS TINY TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD CAUSE
GRADUAL WEAKENING AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION. THE NEW INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND FOLLOWS CLOSELY ALONG
WITH THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE...WITH HENRIETTE WEAKENING TO A
REMNANT LOW IN 72 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 15.2N 145.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 14.7N 147.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 14.2N 150.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 14.0N 154.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 12/0000Z 13.7N 157.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 13/0000Z 13.0N 164.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BURKE
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Quoting 878. SunriseSteeda:



I especially like the last bit "at least not anytime soon...". That's kinda what I am aiming at. The abstract we-are-on-arc-of-a-long-cycle but haven't made a circuit yet. We just get to be stupid and irresponsible and speed or wobble our path along that arc.


The only "cycle" we're on is the one where we're adding insane amounts of fossil fuel CO2 into the atmosphere. Once coal and oil and natural gas are mostly gone, and once the CO2 they generated has stopped warming the planet many decades later, and once all the methane that was released from the oceans and the permafrost as a result of warming has converted itself to CO2 and also ceased warming the atmosphere, things will begin to cool down again. Of course, the oceans will be many meters higher than they are now, many national borders will be unrecognizable due to massive political and societal upheaval, and civilization will be vastly different than it is today. But, yes, some Arctic ice will likely eventually return.

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TS Utor will possibly be a category four or five super typhoon by the time he reaches Luzon, Philippines. Could be a devastating impact on that island. Utor has strait ions in its cirrus outflow pattern on the south side of the cyclone's cloud canopy indicative of rapidly intensifying hurricanes.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 248 Comments: 3970
Quoting 905. SunriseSteeda:



You cannot ever claim fact that which has not been verified over a reasonable amount of time, when the relevant topic varies over time.

"Reasonable" in this case, is NOT thirty years. Not even 100.


Sure it is.
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Quoting 895. MississippiWx:
Yikes. Looks like the GFS ensembles are picking up on a pretty dangerous pattern as we head into the last half of August. This is not the 500mb setup that you want to see in the peak of the season with anomalous ridging over SE Canada and lower heights over the Central part of the country.


this is a 2007 pattern nothing escape from the caribbean graveyard in this pattern!!
Member Since: July 2, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1523
Quoting 907. SuperStorm093:
I think the 00z GFS is going to show something nice, just have my gut going towards that, not a lot of action, but a nice storm.

Lets wait till the model run and quit speculating !!
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Quoting 901. SuperStorm093:


Could be a perfect setup, but if we dont have any storms....


You people who constantly say no storms are going to develop and this season is a bust are beyond ridiculous. This season is almost a guarantee to be above average in terms of storm names. I really really dread the days when the cold AMO takes over again. That will probably be when I bid adieu for real to WU.
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I think the 00z GFS is going to show something nice, just have my gut going towards that, not a lot of action, but a nice storm.
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Quoting 901. SuperStorm093:


Could be a perfect setup, but if we dont have any storms....

There's nothing to suggest we won't.
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Quoting 865. Birthmark:

That is simply put, wrong. It is a fact that CO2 is a GHG. It is a fact that CO2 has been increasing rapidly due to humans burning fossil fuel.

The very fact that Arctic sea ice has declined by 80% over a thirty year period is a strong indication that AGW theory is correct.

Appeals to what we don't know or what might be fly in the face of reason when one considers the evidence at hand.



I don't think you cannot ever claim as fact that which has not been verified over a reasonable amount of time, when that which is measured varies over time.

We won't be burning fossil fuels forever. Even children learn to stop crapping their diapers eventually. The ice won't be gone forever, either.
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Quoting 883. SuperStorm093:


For such a destructive thing, it is so beautiful thing to look at.
You literally have to get perfect conditions to get a storm like that and I think we can all agree that is not what its like in the Atlantic right now.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8774
TPPN12 PGTW 100013

A. TROPICAL STORM 11W (UTOR)

B. 09/2332Z

C. 13.6N

D. 130.4E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T3.5/3.5/D2.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 15A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BNDG/ANMTN. .95 WRAP YIELDS A
DT OF 3.5. PT AGREES; MET WAS 2.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
09/2010Z 13.4N 131.5E SSMS


LONG
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Quoting 896. hurricanes2018:
good news we have no name storms to watch


That is a forecast 10+ days from now. By then, it's highly possible we will have something to track.
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Quoting 895. MississippiWx:
Yikes. Looks like the GFS ensembles are picking up on a pretty dangerous pattern as we head into the last half of August. This is not the 500mb setup that you want to see in the peak of the season with anomalous ridging over SE Canada and lower heights over the Central part of the country.



Could be a perfect setup, but if we dont have any storms....
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Quoting 896. hurricanes2018:
good news we have no name storms to watch

did you watch the jets tonight!!
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Quoting 885. LAbonbon:


Catherdr - thanks for the info.


Just happened to remember - the US had a sodium cooled nuclear reactor back many years ago. Seems to me that sort of design was abandoned because metallic sodium is pretty unpleasant stuff if it gets outside of a sealed system. And all pipes will leak eventually. Lots of odd little reactors around the USA. Someone noticed in Kodak's bankruptcy filing that they had a nuclear reactor in Rochester NY the local officials did not know was there.
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Utor is rapidly intensifying. Luzon could end up getting hit by a category 3-4 typhoon if current trends continue.
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082013
500 PM HST FRI AUG 09 2013

...HENRIETTE CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 145.3W
ABOUT 715 MI...1155 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 925 MI...1495 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES
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Quoting 895. MississippiWx:
Yikes. Looks like the GFS ensembles are picking up on a pretty dangerous pattern as we head into the last half of August. This is not the 500mb setup that you want to see in the peak of the season with anomalous ridging over SE Canada and lower heights over the Central part of the country.

good news we have no name storms to watch
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Yikes. Looks like the GFS ensembles are picking up on a pretty dangerous pattern as we head into the last half of August. This is not the 500mb setup that you want to see in the peak of the season with anomalous ridging over SE Canada and lower heights over the Central part of the country.

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Quoting 890. Civicane49:


Isabel has to be the best annular hurricane I've seen, IMO.

She was a beauty
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no tropical storm or hurricanes for the next 10 days!
204 hours will notting going on!
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Quoting 880. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Isabel as an annular hurricane:...

Link



In that photo, Puerto Rico could fit into the eye from N to S....
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Quoting 880. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Isabel as an annular hurricane:

Link


Isabel has to be the best annular hurricane I've seen, imo.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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