An Active Atlantic Hurricane Season Still Predicted by NOAA, CSU, and TSR

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:07 PM GMT on August 09, 2013

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As we stand on the cusp of the peak part of hurricane season, all of the major groups that perform long-range seasonal hurricane forecasts are still calling for an active 2013 Atlantic hurricane season. NOAA forecasts an above-normal and possibly very active Atlantic hurricane season in 2013, in their August 8 outlook. They give a 70% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of an near-normal season, and 5% chance of a below-normal season. They predict a 70% chance that there will be 13 - 19 named storms, 6 - 9 hurricanes, and 3 - 5 major hurricanes, with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 120% - 190% of the median. If we take the midpoint of these numbers, NOAA is calling for 16 named storms, 7.5 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 155% of normal. This is well above the 1981 - 2010 average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Hurricane seasons during the active hurricane period 1995 - 2012 have averaged 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 151% of the median.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Dorian on July 25, 2013, when the storm reached peak intensity--sustained winds of 60 mph. Formation of early-season tropical storms like Chantal and Dorian in June and July in the deep tropics is usually a harbinger of an active Atlantic hurricane season. Image credit: NASA.

NOAA cites five main reasons to expect an active remainder of hurricane season:

1) Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are above average in the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes, from the coast of Africa to the Caribbean. As of August 9, SST were 0.4°C (0.8°F) above average.
2) Trade winds are weaker than average across the MDR, which has caused the African Monsoon to grow wetter and stronger, the amount of spin over the MDR to increase, and the amount of vertical wind shear to decrease.
3) No El Niño event is present or expected this fall.
4) There have been two early-season tropical storms in the deep tropics (Tropical Storms Chantal and Dorian), which is generally a harbinger of an above-normal season.
5) We are in an active hurricane period that began in 1995.

Colorado State predicts a much above-average hurricane season
A much above-average Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2013, according to the seasonal hurricane forecast issued August 2 by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). The CSU team is calling for 18 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 142. The forecast calls for an above-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (40% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (40% chance, 30% chance is average). The risk of a major hurricane in the Caribbean is also above average, at 53% (42% is average.)

Analogue years
The CSU team picked five previous years when atmospheric and oceanic conditions were similar to what we are seeing this year: cool neutral ENSO conditions and slightly above-average tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures. Those five years were 2008, a very active year with 16 named storms and 4 major hurricanes--Gustav, Ike, Paloma, and Omar; 2007, an active year with 15 named storms and two Category 5 storms--Dean and Felix; 1996, an above average year with 13 named storms and 6 major hurricanes--Edouard, Hortense, Fran, Bertha, Isidore, and Lili; 1966, an average year with 11 named storms and 3 major hurricanes--Inez, Alma, and Faith; and 1952, a below average year with 7 named storms and 3 major hurricanes. The average activity during these five analogue years was 12.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes, and 3.8 major hurricanes.

TSR predicts an above-average hurricane season: 14.8 named storms
The August 6 forecast for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season made by British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) calls for an active season with 14.8 named storms, 6.9 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 121. The long-term averages for the past 63 years are 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an ACE of 103. TSR rates their skill level as good for these August forecasts--47% - 59% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. TSR predicts a 58% chance that U.S. land falling activity will be above average, a 26% chance it will be near average, and a 16% chance it will be below average. They project that 4 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.8 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2012 climatology are 3.1 named storms and 1.4 hurricanes. They rate their skill at making these August forecasts for U.S. landfalls just 9% - 18% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 1.4 named storms, 0.6 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

TSR's two predictors for their statistical model are the forecast July - September trade wind speed over the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic, and the forecast August - September 2013 sea surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic. Their model is calling for warmer than average SSTs and near average trade winds during these periods, and both of these factors should act to increase hurricane and tropical storm activity.


Figure 2. Comparison of the percent improvement over climatology for May and August seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 1999-2009 (May) and 1998-2009 (August), using the Mean Squared Error. Image credit: Verification of 12 years of NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts, National Hurricane Center.


Figure 3. Comparison of the percent improvement in mean square error over climatology for seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 2003-2012, using the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS). The figure shows the results using two different climatologies: a fixed 50-year (1950 - 1999) climatology, and a 2003 - 2012 climatology. Skill is poor for forecasts issued in December and April, moderate for June forecasts, and good for August forecasts. Image credit: Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.

FSU predicts an above-average hurricane season: 15 named storms
The Florida State University (FSU) Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) issued their fifth annual Atlantic hurricane season forecast on May 30, calling for a 70% probability of 12 - 17 named storms and 5 - 10 hurricanes. The mid-point forecast is for 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of 135. The scientists use a numerical atmospheric model developed at COAPS to understand seasonal predictability of hurricane activity. The model is one of only a handful of numerical models in the world being used to study seasonal hurricane activity and is different from the statistical methods used by other seasonal hurricane forecasters such as Colorado State, TSR, and PSU (NOAA uses a hybrid statistical-dynamical model technique.) The FSU forecast has been one of the best ones over the past four years:

2009 prediction: 8 named storms, 4 hurricanes. Actual: 9 named storms, 3 hurricanes
2010 prediction: 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 12 hurricanes
2011 prediction: 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 7 hurricanes
2012 prediction: 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 10 hurricanes

Penn State predicts an above-average hurricane season: 16 named storms
A statistical model by Penn State's Michael Mann and alumnus Michael Kozar is calling for an active Atlantic hurricane season with 16 named storms, plus or minus 4 storms. Their prediction was made using statistics of how past hurricane seasons have behaved in response to sea surface temperatures (SSTs), the El Niño/La Niña oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and other factors. The statistic model assumes that in 2013 the May 0.87°C above average temperatures in the MDR will persist throughout hurricane season, the El Niño phase will be neutral to slightly warm, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will be near average.

The PSU team has been making Atlantic hurricane season forecasts since 2007, and these predictions have done pretty well, except for in 2012, when an expected El Niño did not materialize:

2007 prediction: 15 named storms, Actual: 15
2009 prediction: 12.5, named storms, Actual: 9
2010 prediction: 23 named storms, Actual: 19
2011 prediction: 16 named storms, Actual: 19
2012 prediction: 10.5 named storms, Actual: 19

UK Met Office predicts a slightly above-average hurricane season: 14 named storms
The UKMET office forecast for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, issued May 13, calls for slightly above normal activity, with 14 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and an ACE index of 130. In contrast to the statistical models relied upon by CSU, TSR, and NOAA, the UKMET model is done strictly using two dynamical global seasonal prediction systems: the Met Office GloSea5 system and ECMWF system 4. In 2012, the Met Office forecast was for 10 tropical storms and an ACE index of 90. The actual numbers were 19 named storms and an ACE index of 123.


Figure 4. Total 2013 Atlantic hurricane season activity as predicted by twelve different groups.

NOAA predicts a below-average Eastern Pacific hurricane season
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 23, calls for a below-average season, with 11 - 16 named storms, 5 - 8 hurricanes, 1 - 4 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 60% - 105% of the median. The mid-point of these ranges gives us a forecast for 13.5 named storms, 6.5 hurricanes, and 2.5 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 82% of average. The 1981 - 2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.

NOAA predicts a below-average Central Pacific hurricane season
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Central Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 22, calls for a below-average season, with 1 - 3 tropical cyclones. An average season has 4 - 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes. Hawaii is the primary land area affected by Central Pacific tropical cyclones.

West Pacific typhoon season forecast not available this year
Dr. Johnny Chan of the City University of Hong Kong usually issues a seasonal forecast of typhoon season in the Western Pacific, but did not do so in 2012 or 2013. An average typhoon season has 27 named storms and 17 typhoons. Typhoon seasons immediately following a La Niña year typically see higher levels of activity in the South China Sea, especially between months of May and July. Also, the jet stream tends to dip farther south than usual to the south of Japan, helping steer more tropical cyclones towards Japan and Korea.

Quiet in the Atlantic this weekend
There are no Atlantic threat areas to discuss today, and none of the reliable models for tropical cyclone formation is predicting development during the coming seven days. However, there are some indications that the atmosphere over the tropical Atlantic will become more conducive for tropical storm formation beginning around August 15. The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, may move into the Atlantic then, increasing tropical storm formation odds. At the same time, the computer models are indicating an increase in moisture over the tropical Atlantic, due to a series of tropical waves expected to push off of the coast of Africa. There will also be several eastward-moving Convectively-Coupled Kelvin Waves (CCKWs) traversing the Atlantic during that period. These atmospheric disturbances have a great deal of upward-moving air, which helps strengthen the updrafts of tropical disturbances. Formation of the Eastern Pacific's Hurricane Gil and Henriette were aided by CCKWs. These same CCKWs will cross into the Atlantic and increase the odds of tropical storm formation during the period August 15 - 20.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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1139. LargoFl
the blob by the keys is looking good this morning....
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Quoting 1126. barbamz:
Good morning over there from sunny Germany. Long and interesting article on NYT, in case your weekend is boring ;) Have a nice Saturday!

The Weather God of Oklahoma City
New York Times, by SAM ANDERSON, published: August 9, 2013
I had heard stories about the special powers of Gary England, Tornado Alley's most famous weatherman: how he had tracked storms, back in the day, from a tiny attic office with a primitive radar repurposed from the nose of an airplane; how he had comforted, through the television screen, children who had been left alone in storms. As a nonresident of Oklahoma, however, I had never actually seen England's powers in action. This changed during my first few minutes at the Channel 9 Weather Center. ...

Quotation out of it (*grin*, does this sound somehow familiar to our blog?):
Castor shouted, "Woo-hoo!" (One tension of covering severe weather - one I experienced many times during three days in the studio - is that you often find yourself rooting for the storm. You don't want it to do serious damage, of course, but you would like it to be interesting, and these desires are often at cross-purposes.)

Good afternoon Barb - hope you have a lovely day!
Member Since: June 26, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1817
1137. LargoFl
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
530 AM EDT SAT AUG 10 2013

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830 -850-853-856-870-
873-876-102200-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTT E-LEE-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
530 AM EDT SAT AUG 10 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW COMBINED WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS THEN MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST COAST DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE GREATEST HAZARDS WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES.
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Good Morning!

8:07 am (12:07 GMT)

Workers at the new Lantana bridge go over the final details before the paving process, which is set to begin Monday.


Blasted paparazzi! It's getting to where I can't even pee without a flashbulb going off! (sigh) Being a celebrity has its downside...

While Grothar's blob certainly delivered rain across the state yesterday, all we got was a whopping 0.01". Today and tomorrow are supposed to be sunny, clear and hot.

Busy morning, late start...check back in later. Have a great day everyone!
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1135. LargoFl
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1134. LargoFl
Quoting 1113. toddbizz:


Nice dry crisp weather for you this week....
yes we need a dry out period around here.
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my dad back in the 60s always said the heart of the season is aug 15 - sept 15 its very rare to get a cv system to affect the conus after sept 15
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1132. barbamz
New BBC weather videos:

Tropical Storm Utor heads to Philippines
10 August 2013 Last updated at 13:20
Utor, once a tropical depression, has been upgraded to a tropical storm and is heading for the Philippines through the weekend. BBC Weather's Louise Lear tracks its progress.

About the 10th anniversary of the European heatwave from 2003:
Ten years ago today, Britain's hottest ever day
9 August 2013 Last updated at 20:38
It's ten years exactly since the UK saw its hottest ever temperature. BBC Weather's Matt Taylor looks back at a record-breaking August 2003 and asks, when is it likely to happen again?
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WOW, I killed the blog with just one question?
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Quoting 1012. JLPR2:


We need the MJO to turn positive in our area, that way the suppressing of convection is replaced with uplift and the SAL becomes an unimportant factor since the waves and the ITCZ are more active and they clean it up faster.

SAL is always around.


Two cups of joe, all my meds, my MJO is lifting just fine thank you!

No really. is a positive MJO a larger positive factor for storm formation than the SAL is against it? I ASSUMED SAL was a death sentence to tropical development.
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1129. barbamz


Five dead in Indonesian eruption
BBC, 10 August 2013 Last updated at 12:18 GMT
Five people have been killed in a volcanic eruption on a tiny island in Indonesia, officials have said.
Mount Rokatenda, on the island of Palue some 2,000km (1,250 miles) east of Jakarta, spewed ash and rocks hundreds of metres into the air.
Disaster officials said hot ash covered a nearby beach, leaving three adults and two children dead. ...
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Quoting 1103. WeatherInterest:
Joe Bastardi ‏
normally, 75% of season after Aug 15th..getting back to normals as amo shifts. still big threat US coast ht of season


JB needs to research first. The AMO is no where close to shifting; we haven't even reached the peak yet. It may change around 2045.
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1127. barbamz
Japan Floods: Five Killed In Severe Weather
Aerial footage shows the scale of flooding and storm damage in parts of north Japan, where several are dead or missing.
12:08pm UK, Saturday 10 August 2013
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1126. barbamz
Good morning over there from sunny Germany. Long and interesting article on NYT, in case your weekend is boring ;) Have a nice Saturday!

The Weather God of Oklahoma City
New York Times, by SAM ANDERSON, published: August 9, 2013
I had heard stories about the special powers of Gary England, Tornado Alley's most famous weatherman: how he had tracked storms, back in the day, from a tiny attic office with a primitive radar repurposed from the nose of an airplane; how he had comforted, through the television screen, children who had been left alone in storms. As a nonresident of Oklahoma, however, I had never actually seen England's powers in action. This changed during my first few minutes at the Channel 9 Weather Center. ...

Quotation out of it (*grin*, does this sound somehow familiar to our blog?):
Castor shouted, "Woo-hoo!" (One tension of covering severe weather - one I experienced many times during three days in the studio - is that you often find yourself rooting for the storm. You don't want it to do serious damage, of course, but you would like it to be interesting, and these desires are often at cross-purposes.)
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Quoting 1123. seer2012:


Heavy rain in spots over water but no sign of circulation yet.


Pouch 20L has just reached the water so let's see what it does from here.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14545
Quoting 1122. islander101010:
models? waste of bandwidth looking over a wk out now. it almost the heart of the season


Heart of the season is September 10th, which is a month away. All of the computer models, with the usual exception of the ECMWF, are showing something developing in the BoC. The GFS is ranging from a 996mb tropical storm on the 00z to a 1001mb tropical storm on the 06z due to it being further south on that run and is showing what would probably end up being a Cape Verde hurricane well out in future land by August 24th. While 300+ hours out is complete fantasy land, it's beginning to show a wave train beginning to set up as it did in 2010.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24455


Heavy rain in spots over water but no sign of circulation yet.
Member Since: July 30, 2012 Posts: 4 Comments: 614
models? waste of bandwidth looking over a wk out now. it almost the heart of the season
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Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 45 Comments: 75896
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT AUG 10 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE...HAS FORMED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR BEFORE THE SYSTEM
MOVES INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 45 Comments: 75896
Western GOM gets a 10%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT AUG 10 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE...HAS FORMED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR BEFORE THE SYSTEM
MOVES INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14545
tropical storm here!
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 45 Comments: 75896
Quoting 1102. Envoirment:
Utor intensity forecast once again increased.





Not looking good for them...although they have been hit by far worse storms in the past...
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Quoting 1115. moonlightcowboy:
Good morning, weathergeeks! ;)



ULL dominates the GoM, moist but thinning Caribbean environment, MDR mostly dry, little vorticity anywhere. All is well for now. Have a GR8 Saturday! :)



With that upper low located over the Lesser Antilles,there is no chance for anything to develop in that general area unless it goes to the surface and that process takes many days.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14545
Good morning, weathergeeks! ;)



ULL dominates the GoM, moist but thinning Caribbean environment, MDR mostly dry, little vorticity anywhere. All is well for now. Have a GR8 Saturday! :)

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Quoting 1097. LargoFl:
7-day for Tampa Bay.....................


Nice dry crisp weather for you this week....
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some spin and building convection near the northern leewards
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1111. rod2635
Quoting 1110. LAsurvivor:


I have to say I agree with this. It seems even forecasting the weather is all about the almighty dollar now. I am not a weather "geek" as you put it, but I do follow weather closely and wonder how many people are needlessly alarmed by all the publicity given to so many different weather forecasters. For a very long time we had no CSU forecasts, nothing like that. The local TV weather guy got his info from the NHC and, for the most part, once the storm got closer, it was fairly accurate. Some will disagree with me and that's O.K.

I mostly read both Dr. Masters'blog and check the NHC to see trends and get good info that is easy to understand and digest. I have gradually learned what the MJO is, El Nino, ENSO, SAL,ULL, vorticity and all the other terms that are thrown around on here with regularity. However, sometimes it seems some on here are more concerned with showing their weather prowess and their mastery of all of these neat little weather terms than trying to actually give an opinion. I know this is a passion for some, just not for me. I am just curious and like to follow weather. I am sure I'll get a sarcastic, tongue in cheek post from someone like I did from my first post to this blog, so fire at will.



Actually right on target. When I was young, 50+years ago, local weather was one guy, minimal graphics. Now it is a 'weather team'. Weather is big news since it has a common denominator aspect, it affects us all, vs other stories that impact limited population segments. Weather has dramatic potential, whether real or predicted. The more predictive entities, the more drama. Human nature. The positive side of this attention is that the dollars spent and public attention gained may actually lead to more scientific progress over the long term.
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Quoting 1059. sar2401:

Trib, I'm 100% for the continuing study of how to predict hurricanes. What I'm not for is public dissemination of so much of this data. For example, Dr. Maters cites six agencies and companies that are making seasonal forecasts. Their records range for pretty good to barely more than flipping a coin. Who is the public to know which forecast, if any, to put any faith into? If we had a color code for something like green for agencies with better track records and red fr companies with poor track records, at least we'd be providing a sort of "Consumer's Report" version of hurricane forecasts. CSU's forecasts are particularly troubling, since they are now getting into areas like probability of where storms are likely to hit, which we have almost no skill in predicting, to analogue years, which we have zero, and maybe less than zero skill on predicting.

This is kind of like six different forecasts for my house today, with the most conservative saying there's a some chance you may get a thunderstorm, to the most aggressive saying the chances are 70 or 80%, and the chances are 10% higher than normal it will hit my house. Without having any idea which forecast has the better track record, I would be a total loss as to what to believe. I think that's true with hurricane forecasts, which means people will tend to ignore all of them.

I'm no fool, and I realize tat hurricane forecasts are some of the best free publicity that universities like CSU, FSU, PSU, and NCSU are going to get. NOAA and the UK Met Office, being government agencies, are always looking for opportunities to show taxpayer's money is being well spent. The most galling is the free publicity that Tropical Storm Risk, a for-profit British company with one of the worst records of seasonal outlooks gets. Lumping them in with better performing out looks gives them a patina of accuracy they don't deserve.

In my perfect work, the outlook would be issue by NOAA, the official government agency in charge of hurricane prediction. The others can still issue outlooks, but you should have to dig for them, which all us weather geeks will do, but not the general public. I realize this will never happen, but we sure devote a ot of time, electrons, and newsprint o things what the average number of hurricanes is 16, exactly NOAA's prediction, while the biggest outliers are 14 and 18. With numbers that tightly clustered together, does it really matter much anyway?


I have to say I agree with this. It seems even forecasting the weather is all about the almighty dollar now. I am not a weather "geek" as you put it, but I do follow weather closely and wonder how many people are needlessly alarmed by all the publicity given to so many different weather forecasters. For a very long time we had no CSU forecasts, nothing like that. The local TV weather guy got his info from the NHC and, for the most part, once the storm got closer, it was fairly accurate. Some will disagree with me and that's O.K.

I mostly read both Dr. Masters'blog and check the NHC to see trends and get good info that is easy to understand and digest. I have gradually learned what the MJO is, El Nino, ENSO, SAL,ULL, vorticity and all the other terms that are thrown around on here with regularity. However, sometimes it seems some on here are more concerned with showing their weather prowess and their mastery of all of these neat little weather terms than trying to actually give an opinion. I know this is a passion for some, just not for me. I am just curious and like to follow weather. I am sure I'll get a sarcastic, tongue in cheek post from someone like I did from my first post to this blog, so fire at will.
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G'morning all. Nothing coming to P'cola? It's a beautiful thing!
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Quoting 1083. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Good morning.

FIM-7 this one is for you Kori ;)



FIM-9




Yeah, and happy Saturday to you, too! ;(
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Good morning to all.

06z GFS shows the BOC system.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14545
here is a tropical storm in 384 hours from now!
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 45 Comments: 75896
Quoting 1103. WeatherInterest:
Joe Bastardi ‏
normally, 75% of season after Aug 15th..getting back to normals as amo shifts. still big threat US coast ht of season

send me the link!
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 45 Comments: 75896

low 1009mb and low 1008mb
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 45 Comments: 75896
Joe Bastardi ‏
normally, 75% of season after Aug 15th..getting back to normals as amo shifts. still big threat US coast ht of season

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Utor intensity forecast once again increased.



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Quoting 1052. Tribucanes:
And on the point of the cost of seasonal outlooks; under Bush's tax cuts, the top 1% have been given 708,144,147,723$, the next 4% 326,280,190,858$. While the middle class has been decimated and the bottom growing like a wildfire. Federal spending on NHC's seasonal outlooks a'int the problem. Not to mention under Bush we lost five million jobs while giving our national wealth to the super rich. We lost two million more jobs during Obama's first two years as He turned the sinking ship around and plugged the holes.


LOL, I'd hate to see what it would look likr if we were still sinking.......
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Pinhole eye.

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Quoting 1072. Xyrus2000:


The term "fantasy" in this context is used to describe a very unlikely (if not impossible) outcome. It could also be referred to a nonsense, wishcasting, downcasting, etc. . Programming code is quite capable of fantasy, especially when dealing with chaotic/self-modifying systems. Such systems are inherently unstable and suffer from growing errors over time. Beyond a certain point, any output from said model would indeed be fantasy (a hypercane, sharknado, peace in the middle east, etc.).

If by fantasy you mean creative thinking, then you're statement is also not correct, or at the very least up for debate. There have been a number of relatively recent demonstrations of computers demonstrating creativity in some form or another (including generating original artwork). The problem here is that there really is no objective standard of "creative" or "imaginative". At what point does something become "creative" vs. "formulaic"? It's not an easy question to answer (just look at a movie reviews).







Check out the images generated by software created by one of our professors, Dr. Tom Fernandez (ex IBM/Boca).

http://www.cse.fau.edu/~thomas/Images/E2Art%20Bes t%20100904a/


Genetic programming rocks.

Here is just one of them:


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1097. LargoFl
7-day for Tampa Bay.....................
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TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082013
1100 PM HST FRI AUG 09 2013

HENRIETTE HAS BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN A PERSISTENT BALL OF PULSING
DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OVER THE LAST 18-24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH
LATEST INFRARED IMAGES SHOW A SOMEWHAT DEGRADED APPEARANCE IN THE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOP PATTERN. TIMELY SSMI/S PASSES AT 0327Z AND
0530Z HELPED IN CENTER LOCATION WITH THIS ADVISORY...WITH THE CENTER
ESTIMATED TO BE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION.
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITIES CONTINUE TO LOWER...AND A CONSENSUS
3.0/45 KT HAS EMERGED...WITH THIS CHOSEN AS THE CURRENT INTENSITY.

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 240/14...WITH HENRIETTE MOVING ON A
TRAJECTORY SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH...BUT CLOSELY PARALLELS THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS CLOSE TO THE BULK OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
RELIABLE MODELS. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SHIPS GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE SHEAR VECTOR SHIFTING FROM THE SOUTH TO THE WEST IN
THE NEXT 36 HOURS...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER INTERRUPT THE SMALL
CIRCULATION OF HENRIETTE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO CALL
FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING UNTIL DISSIPATION OCCURS BY 96 HOURS...AND IS
SIMILAR TO THE IVCN INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND LGEM GUIDANCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 14.2N 146.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 13.7N 148.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 13.1N 152.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 12.9N 155.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 12.6N 159.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 13/0600Z 11.8N 167.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD
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1094. LargoFl
Good Morning Folks..Blogs Coffee is Perked..enjoy....
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082013
1100 PM HST FRI AUG 09 2013

...HENRIETTE SLOWLY WEAKENING...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 146.7W
ABOUT 675 MI...1080 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 885 MI...1425 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 240 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
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1092. Boco12
How is it that Utor's 10-min sustained winds are 80 mph yet the 1-min sustained winds are 65 mph? It'd be peculiar for a typhoon to have tropical storm 1-min winds yet boasting sub-970 pressures...
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Quoting 1089. allancalderini:
don`t jinx it.


It's impossible to jinx it; the Gulf Coast doesn't get hurricanes anymore, didn't you know? ;)
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Quoting 1086. Gearsts:
Just perfect.

God help Manilla!!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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