An Active Atlantic Hurricane Season Still Predicted by NOAA, CSU, and TSR

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:07 PM GMT on August 09, 2013

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As we stand on the cusp of the peak part of hurricane season, all of the major groups that perform long-range seasonal hurricane forecasts are still calling for an active 2013 Atlantic hurricane season. NOAA forecasts an above-normal and possibly very active Atlantic hurricane season in 2013, in their August 8 outlook. They give a 70% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of an near-normal season, and 5% chance of a below-normal season. They predict a 70% chance that there will be 13 - 19 named storms, 6 - 9 hurricanes, and 3 - 5 major hurricanes, with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 120% - 190% of the median. If we take the midpoint of these numbers, NOAA is calling for 16 named storms, 7.5 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 155% of normal. This is well above the 1981 - 2010 average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Hurricane seasons during the active hurricane period 1995 - 2012 have averaged 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 151% of the median.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Dorian on July 25, 2013, when the storm reached peak intensity--sustained winds of 60 mph. Formation of early-season tropical storms like Chantal and Dorian in June and July in the deep tropics is usually a harbinger of an active Atlantic hurricane season. Image credit: NASA.

NOAA cites five main reasons to expect an active remainder of hurricane season:

1) Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are above average in the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes, from the coast of Africa to the Caribbean. As of August 9, SST were 0.4°C (0.8°F) above average.
2) Trade winds are weaker than average across the MDR, which has caused the African Monsoon to grow wetter and stronger, the amount of spin over the MDR to increase, and the amount of vertical wind shear to decrease.
3) No El Niño event is present or expected this fall.
4) There have been two early-season tropical storms in the deep tropics (Tropical Storms Chantal and Dorian), which is generally a harbinger of an above-normal season.
5) We are in an active hurricane period that began in 1995.

Colorado State predicts a much above-average hurricane season
A much above-average Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2013, according to the seasonal hurricane forecast issued August 2 by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). The CSU team is calling for 18 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 142. The forecast calls for an above-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (40% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (40% chance, 30% chance is average). The risk of a major hurricane in the Caribbean is also above average, at 53% (42% is average.)

Analogue years
The CSU team picked five previous years when atmospheric and oceanic conditions were similar to what we are seeing this year: cool neutral ENSO conditions and slightly above-average tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures. Those five years were 2008, a very active year with 16 named storms and 4 major hurricanes--Gustav, Ike, Paloma, and Omar; 2007, an active year with 15 named storms and two Category 5 storms--Dean and Felix; 1996, an above average year with 13 named storms and 6 major hurricanes--Edouard, Hortense, Fran, Bertha, Isidore, and Lili; 1966, an average year with 11 named storms and 3 major hurricanes--Inez, Alma, and Faith; and 1952, a below average year with 7 named storms and 3 major hurricanes. The average activity during these five analogue years was 12.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes, and 3.8 major hurricanes.

TSR predicts an above-average hurricane season: 14.8 named storms
The August 6 forecast for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season made by British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) calls for an active season with 14.8 named storms, 6.9 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 121. The long-term averages for the past 63 years are 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an ACE of 103. TSR rates their skill level as good for these August forecasts--47% - 59% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. TSR predicts a 58% chance that U.S. land falling activity will be above average, a 26% chance it will be near average, and a 16% chance it will be below average. They project that 4 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.8 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2012 climatology are 3.1 named storms and 1.4 hurricanes. They rate their skill at making these August forecasts for U.S. landfalls just 9% - 18% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 1.4 named storms, 0.6 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

TSR's two predictors for their statistical model are the forecast July - September trade wind speed over the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic, and the forecast August - September 2013 sea surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic. Their model is calling for warmer than average SSTs and near average trade winds during these periods, and both of these factors should act to increase hurricane and tropical storm activity.


Figure 2. Comparison of the percent improvement over climatology for May and August seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 1999-2009 (May) and 1998-2009 (August), using the Mean Squared Error. Image credit: Verification of 12 years of NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts, National Hurricane Center.


Figure 3. Comparison of the percent improvement in mean square error over climatology for seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 2003-2012, using the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS). The figure shows the results using two different climatologies: a fixed 50-year (1950 - 1999) climatology, and a 2003 - 2012 climatology. Skill is poor for forecasts issued in December and April, moderate for June forecasts, and good for August forecasts. Image credit: Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.

FSU predicts an above-average hurricane season: 15 named storms
The Florida State University (FSU) Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) issued their fifth annual Atlantic hurricane season forecast on May 30, calling for a 70% probability of 12 - 17 named storms and 5 - 10 hurricanes. The mid-point forecast is for 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of 135. The scientists use a numerical atmospheric model developed at COAPS to understand seasonal predictability of hurricane activity. The model is one of only a handful of numerical models in the world being used to study seasonal hurricane activity and is different from the statistical methods used by other seasonal hurricane forecasters such as Colorado State, TSR, and PSU (NOAA uses a hybrid statistical-dynamical model technique.) The FSU forecast has been one of the best ones over the past four years:

2009 prediction: 8 named storms, 4 hurricanes. Actual: 9 named storms, 3 hurricanes
2010 prediction: 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 12 hurricanes
2011 prediction: 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 7 hurricanes
2012 prediction: 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 10 hurricanes

Penn State predicts an above-average hurricane season: 16 named storms
A statistical model by Penn State's Michael Mann and alumnus Michael Kozar is calling for an active Atlantic hurricane season with 16 named storms, plus or minus 4 storms. Their prediction was made using statistics of how past hurricane seasons have behaved in response to sea surface temperatures (SSTs), the El Niño/La Niña oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and other factors. The statistic model assumes that in 2013 the May 0.87°C above average temperatures in the MDR will persist throughout hurricane season, the El Niño phase will be neutral to slightly warm, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will be near average.

The PSU team has been making Atlantic hurricane season forecasts since 2007, and these predictions have done pretty well, except for in 2012, when an expected El Niño did not materialize:

2007 prediction: 15 named storms, Actual: 15
2009 prediction: 12.5, named storms, Actual: 9
2010 prediction: 23 named storms, Actual: 19
2011 prediction: 16 named storms, Actual: 19
2012 prediction: 10.5 named storms, Actual: 19

UK Met Office predicts a slightly above-average hurricane season: 14 named storms
The UKMET office forecast for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, issued May 13, calls for slightly above normal activity, with 14 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and an ACE index of 130. In contrast to the statistical models relied upon by CSU, TSR, and NOAA, the UKMET model is done strictly using two dynamical global seasonal prediction systems: the Met Office GloSea5 system and ECMWF system 4. In 2012, the Met Office forecast was for 10 tropical storms and an ACE index of 90. The actual numbers were 19 named storms and an ACE index of 123.


Figure 4. Total 2013 Atlantic hurricane season activity as predicted by twelve different groups.

NOAA predicts a below-average Eastern Pacific hurricane season
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 23, calls for a below-average season, with 11 - 16 named storms, 5 - 8 hurricanes, 1 - 4 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 60% - 105% of the median. The mid-point of these ranges gives us a forecast for 13.5 named storms, 6.5 hurricanes, and 2.5 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 82% of average. The 1981 - 2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.

NOAA predicts a below-average Central Pacific hurricane season
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Central Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 22, calls for a below-average season, with 1 - 3 tropical cyclones. An average season has 4 - 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes. Hawaii is the primary land area affected by Central Pacific tropical cyclones.

West Pacific typhoon season forecast not available this year
Dr. Johnny Chan of the City University of Hong Kong usually issues a seasonal forecast of typhoon season in the Western Pacific, but did not do so in 2012 or 2013. An average typhoon season has 27 named storms and 17 typhoons. Typhoon seasons immediately following a La Niña year typically see higher levels of activity in the South China Sea, especially between months of May and July. Also, the jet stream tends to dip farther south than usual to the south of Japan, helping steer more tropical cyclones towards Japan and Korea.

Quiet in the Atlantic this weekend
There are no Atlantic threat areas to discuss today, and none of the reliable models for tropical cyclone formation is predicting development during the coming seven days. However, there are some indications that the atmosphere over the tropical Atlantic will become more conducive for tropical storm formation beginning around August 15. The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, may move into the Atlantic then, increasing tropical storm formation odds. At the same time, the computer models are indicating an increase in moisture over the tropical Atlantic, due to a series of tropical waves expected to push off of the coast of Africa. There will also be several eastward-moving Convectively-Coupled Kelvin Waves (CCKWs) traversing the Atlantic during that period. These atmospheric disturbances have a great deal of upward-moving air, which helps strengthen the updrafts of tropical disturbances. Formation of the Eastern Pacific's Hurricane Gil and Henriette were aided by CCKWs. These same CCKWs will cross into the Atlantic and increase the odds of tropical storm formation during the period August 15 - 20.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 1232. PalmBeachWeather:
I stuck my head outside here in Boynton Beach....I ran quickly back inside....No way Jose!


Yesterday Al Roker was bragging about how Boise Idaho was going to be hotter than Miami Fl.
Boise high 96 and Miami was 92.

But Boise's humidity was around 20% yesterday afternoon vs. 60% for Miami.
Heat Index was significantly higher in Miami.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7312
Quoting 1236. Grothar:


Thank you. Now my left artery just clogged up from reading that.
But oh so good
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5888
Quoting 1232. PalmBeachWeather:
I stuck my head outside here in Boynton Beach....I ran quickly back inside....No way Jose!
Thank goodness my daughter cancel our trip to IKEA......Whew!
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5888
1237. sar2401
Quoting interpreter:
Seasonal Forecast:
The TUTT and and an abundance of dry SAL across the MDR are firmly entrenched as it has been all season. With the ENSO in a neutral status at this time and trending toward an El Nino we see a much below normal season for the development of tropical systems in the tropical Atlantic this year. The TUTT is creating wind shear through most of the GOM, Carribean and western Atlantic. If any storms get going in the eastern Atlantic they will likely be sheared apart as they move westward. We do not see this changing much until mid September, but by then waters will begin cooling significantly with an early onset of fall-like conditions in North America and the northern Atlantic Ocean.

Well, at least it's kind of funny. I can tell you've ever spent any time diving in the Caribbean, or probably any time in the Caribbean at all. We could have a full blown blizzard in Iowa and the Caribbean SST's would still be the highs of the year. North American weather conditions don't even begin to affect Caribbean SST's until at least December. The rest of it appears t be some kind of weather word salad you threw together. I might be inclined to read it all if it appeared you had any clue about how Caribbean Sea water temperatures work.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16025
1236. Grothar
Quoting 1219. PalmBeachWeather:
Never have been a big fan of fried dough (pancakes and waffles) I do like corned beef hash, cheesy grits, country fried steak...


Thank you. Now my left artery just clogged up from reading that.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26460

Quoting 1206. PalmBeachWeather:
Are you speaking of damage or deaths.... Water seems to be the major factor, But Andrew ranks up there with me...
Balanced the two.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24166
1234. Skyepony (Mod)
MLC~ The only thing I've noticed the MJO doing to the troughs is they are more intense & likely to get a low going at the tail. Not sure if it elongates them or does much for location & shape. This side the globe has been cooler this year which would I think might make things a bit troughy..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 173 Comments: 38146
Quoting 1230. Envoirment:
Typhoon Soulik currently has the lowest pressure of any system this year in the West Pacific at 925mb. Typhoon Utor may beat Soulik at this rate.

For comparison, Hurricane Wilma went from 982mb to 882mb in a 30 hour period. That's an average of dropping ~3.3mb an hour. Utor's drop of 26mb in ~3.5 hours would be an average drop of ~7.5mb an hour!

Sorry that I'm making a big deal about it, but it's not often you see a system deepen so rapidly!


That is very true.
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Quoting 1229. Sfloridacat5:
Ridiculously hot outside. Heat index near 100 degrees at 10:00 am.
Only hope for relief is afternoon T storms.
I stuck my head outside here in Boynton Beach....I ran quickly back inside....No way Jose!
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5888
watching!
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 26 Comments: 52012
Typhoon Soulik currently has the lowest pressure of any system this year in the West Pacific at 925mb. Typhoon Utor may beat Soulik at this rate.

For comparison, Hurricane Wilma went from 982mb to 882mb in a 30 hour period. That's an average drop of ~3.3mb an hour. Utor's drop of 26mb in ~12 hours would be an average drop of ~2.1mb an hour!

Sorry that I'm making a big deal about it, but it's not often you see a system deepen so rapidly!
Member Since: June 16, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 859
Ridiculously hot outside. Heat index near 100 degrees at 10:00 am.
Only hope for relief is afternoon T storms.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7312
1228. Skyepony (Mod)
Another Music Festival falls victim to the weather.. This one is a little north of Boone in WNC..

The 8th Annual Ola Belle Reed Festival has been cancelled due to flash flooding in Lansing Creeper Trail Park early this morning.

The Greater Lansing Area Development Committee (GLAD) deeply regrets any inconvenience to festival-goers, performers and vendors arising from the difficult but inevitable decision to cancel the festival’s second day of events. Friday night’s show was well-attended, despite some rain.

Heavy rains to the north of Lansing during the night caused Big Horse Creek to flood the festival venue with two feet of water before sunrise.

The Lansing Volunteer Fire Department’s chicken BBQ will proceed as planned.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 173 Comments: 38146
tropical wave looking good so far. its still got it rin and t.storms with it.
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 26 Comments: 52012






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Quoting 1215. catastropheadjuster:


Unknowncomic- Don't mean to bother you, but was wondering what is Kelvin? I understand the MJO but don't know what Kelvin is.

sheri

wiki has some info on this!
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Quoting 1205. aislinnpaps:
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. 83 degrees and heat index of 91. Forecast if a 50% chance of rain, but there is no rain anywhere near us.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Crepes with Salted Butter Caramel Recipe, Belgian waffles with strawberries or powdered sugar, croissants, French breakfast puffs, French Toast with Bourbon Peach Sauce
toasted baguette with goat cheese and roasted peppers
creamy oatmeal with blueberries, five grain cereal, oats and raisins with low fat milk, cheesy grits with shrimp, cheese danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Enjoy!
Thanks a hearty breakfast energizes that engine we like to call our body and keeps the day going. I may just go fry up a sausage and egg omelette with cheese, tomatoes, red peppers, and onion. I usually stretch the batter with milk as well. Just sharing my little old recipe I acquired through the years and from watching my parents cook. :)
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1223. Grothar
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26460
XD



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Rain in the windwards and southern leewards... while we stay dry in the northern leewards. The sky is milky, I hate that!
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Quoting 1211. interpreter:
Seasonal Forecast:
The TUTT and and an abundance of dry SAL across the MDR are firmly entrenched as it has been all season. With the ENSO in a neutral status at this time and trending toward an El Nino we see a much below normal season for the development of tropical systems in the tropical Atlantic this year. The TUTT is creating wind shear through most of the GOM, Carribean and western Atlantic. If any storms get going in the eastern Atlantic they will likely be sheared apart as they move westward. We do not see this changing much until mid September, but by then waters will begin cooling significantly with an early onset of fall-like conditions in North America and the northern Atlantic Ocean.



You do realize that a La Niña is trying to develop, not an El Niño with substantial cooling of the eastern equatorial Pacific SSTs this does not support your forecast.
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Quoting 1205. aislinnpaps:
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. 83 degrees and heat index of 91. Forecast if a 50% chance of rain, but there is no rain anywhere near us.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Crepes with Salted Butter Caramel Recipe, Belgian waffles with strawberries or powdered sugar, croissants, French breakfast puffs, French Toast with Bourbon Peach Sauce
toasted baguette with goat cheese and roasted peppers
creamy oatmeal with blueberries, five grain cereal, oats and raisins with low fat milk, cheesy grits with shrimp, cheese danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Enjoy!
Never have been a big fan of fried dough (pancakes and waffles) I do like corned beef hash, cheesy grits, country fried steak...
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5888
!!!!!!! rain
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 26 Comments: 52012
CybrTeddy your list is almost similar to mine. I was thinking about putting in the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane or the 1899 San Ciriaco Hurricane, but which of those 5 would I replace it with? Regardless they were all deadly and intense hurricanes that caused devastation.
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large wave almost off the African coast and southeast of the cape verde islands have a modest amount of spin to it. The wave is moving west and is carrying a 1011mb low with it. This could be our next invest 92L.
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Quoting 1165. unknowncomic:
Kelvin and mjo on will be coming.


Unknowncomic- Don't mean to bother you, but was wondering what is Kelvin? I understand the MJO but don't know what Kelvin is.

sheri
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WOW! Utor's pressure decreased by 26mb in less than 4 hours based on Navy estimates!

At 9:01 UTC it was at 982mb



Then at 12:32 UTC it was at 956mb



Some very rapid deepening! And it'll continue for a little while longer it seems.

P.S: Right click "view image" and it'll show pressure estimates in the url.

Edit: The images of the navy missed out an update, so it deepened over 12 hours, not 3.5 hours like I originally thought!
Member Since: June 16, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 859
Quoting 1065. canehater1:
It was nice to see Dr.Postel talking about voticity
coming off African Coast and using graphics to
illustrate it on TW updates today on TWC. He also
showed positive MJO moving into Carib and Atlantic
in 168 hrs. with graphics.
This weeks is the best in tropical wx discussion I've seen from TWC in a while. I guess they stepped it up because it's their "hurricane week". I actually saw a pretty decent discussion of SAL and how it's been affecting the Twaves earlier this week. They need to do this more consistently through the rest of the season peak.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22318
1212. Skyepony (Mod)
Atleast one is dead from a mudslide at the CO Waldo Canyon Burn scar..

(that looks alot like a WUnderground umbrella)


Quoting 1201. PalmBeachWeather:
All seems to be back working

Not sure if we should assume singing that song fixes it:)

Haven't been able to reproduce it but those affected discussing it a bit usually helps everyone figure it out.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 173 Comments: 38146
Seasonal Forecast:
The TUTT and and an abundance of dry SAL across the MDR are firmly entrenched as it has been all season. With the ENSO in a neutral status at this time and trending toward an El Nino we see a much below normal season for the development of tropical systems in the tropical Atlantic this year. The TUTT is creating wind shear through most of the GOM, Carribean and western Atlantic. If any storms get going in the eastern Atlantic they will likely be sheared apart as they move westward. We do not see this changing much until mid September, but by then waters will begin cooling significantly with an early onset of fall-like conditions in North America and the northern Atlantic Ocean.
Member Since: July 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 158
Quoting 1200. Skyepony:
MLC~ That looks about right. I can't see anything missing other than maybe a reliable MJO forecast:) The strength & such of that is really tough for the models to get.

Here's MJO today, it's coming..Blue is lifting storm inducing red is storm suppressing..


Thanks, Skye. Of course, that makes sense espcially that far out. If that verifies, however, and there is favorable upper level conditions as it moves eastwards, all I can see is dread ahead. Curious, too, any idea of the relationship of CONUS troughing to the MJO when it's in the basin?
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1209. barbamz
Checking in while cleaning my flat :( I think it's time to look at the TPW for monitoring the exit of the African wave:

Click to enlarge
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 55 Comments: 6013
Quoting 1197. Methurricanes:
Saw this on the Weather Channel, What do you think the 5 worst Hurricanes were? (pre Sandy)
TWC says
5)Andrew
4) Great Hurricane of 1938
3) Miami Hurricane of 1926
2) Katrina
1) Galveston Hurricane of 1900

My List
5) Hurricane Betsy
4) Hurricane Andrew
3) Great Hurricane of 1938
2) Katrina
1) Galveston Hurricane of 1900

My List:
5) Andrew
4) Katrina
3) Mitch
2) 1900 Galveston Hurricane
1) Great Hurricane of 1780
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just.e.winds...http://www.wunderground.com/global/B R.html
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Quoting 1203. CybrTeddy:

1) Great Hurricane of 1780.
2) Galveston Hurricane of 1900.
3) Hurricane Mitch.
4) Hurricane Katrina.
5) 1935 Labor Day hurricane.
Are you speaking of damage or deaths.... Water seems to be the major factor, But Andrew ranks up there with me...
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5888
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. 83 degrees and heat index of 91. Forecast if a 50% chance of rain, but there is no rain anywhere near us.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Crepes with Salted Butter Caramel Recipe, Belgian waffles with strawberries or powdered sugar, croissants, French breakfast puffs, French Toast with Bourbon Peach Sauce
toasted baguette with goat cheese and roasted peppers
creamy oatmeal with blueberries, five grain cereal, oats and raisins with low fat milk, cheesy grits with shrimp, cheese danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Enjoy!
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GT: deeeeelish! 10 days and counting down!

Hope all our Houston people get wet soon, cool y'all down.
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Quoting 1197. Methurricanes:
Saw this on the Weather Channel, What do you think the 5 worst Hurricanes were? (pre Sandy)
TWC says
5)Andrew
4) Great Hurricane of 1938
3) Miami Hurricane of 1926
2) Katrina
1) Galveston Hurricane of 1900

My List
5) Hurricane Betsy
4) Hurricane Andrew
3) Great Hurricane of 1938
2) Katrina
1) Galveston Hurricane of 1900
1) Great Hurricane of 1780.
2) Galveston Hurricane of 1900.
3) Hurricane Mitch.
4) Hurricane Katrina.
5) 1935 Labor Day hurricane.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24166
Interesting how the GFS puts a low in the southern GOM (BOC) and it just sits there for days. This time of year with SST they way they are something bound to spin up. But it would most likely move into Mexico from that location this time of year.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7312
Quoting 1199. PalmBeachWeather:
Help me Rhonda ,help help me Rhonda, help me Rhonda, help me Rhonda, Help me Rhonda yeah, Get her out of my heart....
All seems to be back working
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5888
1200. Skyepony (Mod)
MLC~ That looks about right. I can't see anything missing other than maybe a reliable MJO forecast:) The strength & such of that is really tough for the models to get.

Here's MJO today, it's coming..Blue is lifting storm inducing red is storm suppressing..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 173 Comments: 38146
Quoting 1190. Grothar:


Chrome crashed on me and then Firefox.
Help me Rhonda ,help help me Rhonda, help me Rhonda, help me Rhonda, Help me Rhonda yeah, Get her out of my heart....
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5888
Here's what we should watch the next few days:

  • The odds are increasing that we will see a tropical storm develop in the BoC sometime in the next 5-7 days, this is supported by the GFS, FIM, NAVGEM, and GEM models. If we believe the GFS, the upper level environment will be very favorable for development in the BoC. Could see some very decent strengthening from a small tropical cyclone that forms here, think of Karl and Alex, especially if this system gains latitude enough to be a threat to Texas. I don't see this trucking into central Mexico, perhaps the Rio Grande area, however it's way too far out to know for certain.
  • After this, we should watch the African coast for a tropical cyclone(s) to emerge by the middle of the third week of August. The models, mostly the GFS and its respective ensemble numbers, are showing that the meat of the season will start there. While the GFS has been inconsistent with showing Cape Verde development in the near-term, I think it's very likely that we will get a storm around that time. 
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24166
Saw this on the Weather Channel, What do you think the 5 worst Hurricanes were? (pre Sandy)
TWC says
5)Andrew
4) Great Hurricane of 1938
3) Miami Hurricane of 1926
2) Katrina
1) Galveston Hurricane of 1900

My List
5) Hurricane Betsy
4) Hurricane Andrew
3) Great Hurricane of 1938
2) Katrina
1) Galveston Hurricane of 1900
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 701
1196. ncstorm
Quoting 1193. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I'm starting to like this new NAVGEM now or should I say the upgraded NOGAPS? :P


Nogaps as far as I am concerned..
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Quoting 1190. Grothar:


Chrome crashed on me and then Firefox.
What version of windows are you running and do you have windows update turn to automatic updates?
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Quoting 1192. PalmBeachWeather:
yes
safari hasn't had problems so far.
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Quoting 1191. ncstorm:
6z Navgem
I'm starting to like this new NAVGEM now or should I say the upgraded NOGAPS? :P
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Quoting 1190. Grothar:


Chrome crashed on me and then Firefox.
yes
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5888
1191. ncstorm
6z Navgem


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1190. Grothar
Quoting 1188. redwagon:


Chrome crashed and burned on me, re-downloaded and installed, still trashed, having to use explorer, ick.

Sure wish that GOM ULL could find a way to the surface but I deeply admire how it's sucking up moisture to sling onto TX tomorrow and the next day.

104o yesterday, no clouds, 100s are way more bearable with cloud cover.


Chrome crashed on me and then Firefox.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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