An Active Atlantic Hurricane Season Still Predicted by NOAA, CSU, and TSR

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:07 PM GMT on August 09, 2013

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As we stand on the cusp of the peak part of hurricane season, all of the major groups that perform long-range seasonal hurricane forecasts are still calling for an active 2013 Atlantic hurricane season. NOAA forecasts an above-normal and possibly very active Atlantic hurricane season in 2013, in their August 8 outlook. They give a 70% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of an near-normal season, and 5% chance of a below-normal season. They predict a 70% chance that there will be 13 - 19 named storms, 6 - 9 hurricanes, and 3 - 5 major hurricanes, with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 120% - 190% of the median. If we take the midpoint of these numbers, NOAA is calling for 16 named storms, 7.5 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 155% of normal. This is well above the 1981 - 2010 average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Hurricane seasons during the active hurricane period 1995 - 2012 have averaged 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 151% of the median.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Dorian on July 25, 2013, when the storm reached peak intensity--sustained winds of 60 mph. Formation of early-season tropical storms like Chantal and Dorian in June and July in the deep tropics is usually a harbinger of an active Atlantic hurricane season. Image credit: NASA.

NOAA cites five main reasons to expect an active remainder of hurricane season:

1) Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are above average in the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes, from the coast of Africa to the Caribbean. As of August 9, SST were 0.4°C (0.8°F) above average.
2) Trade winds are weaker than average across the MDR, which has caused the African Monsoon to grow wetter and stronger, the amount of spin over the MDR to increase, and the amount of vertical wind shear to decrease.
3) No El Niño event is present or expected this fall.
4) There have been two early-season tropical storms in the deep tropics (Tropical Storms Chantal and Dorian), which is generally a harbinger of an above-normal season.
5) We are in an active hurricane period that began in 1995.

Colorado State predicts a much above-average hurricane season
A much above-average Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2013, according to the seasonal hurricane forecast issued August 2 by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). The CSU team is calling for 18 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 142. The forecast calls for an above-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (40% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (40% chance, 30% chance is average). The risk of a major hurricane in the Caribbean is also above average, at 53% (42% is average.)

Analogue years
The CSU team picked five previous years when atmospheric and oceanic conditions were similar to what we are seeing this year: cool neutral ENSO conditions and slightly above-average tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures. Those five years were 2008, a very active year with 16 named storms and 4 major hurricanes--Gustav, Ike, Paloma, and Omar; 2007, an active year with 15 named storms and two Category 5 storms--Dean and Felix; 1996, an above average year with 13 named storms and 6 major hurricanes--Edouard, Hortense, Fran, Bertha, Isidore, and Lili; 1966, an average year with 11 named storms and 3 major hurricanes--Inez, Alma, and Faith; and 1952, a below average year with 7 named storms and 3 major hurricanes. The average activity during these five analogue years was 12.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes, and 3.8 major hurricanes.

TSR predicts an above-average hurricane season: 14.8 named storms
The August 6 forecast for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season made by British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) calls for an active season with 14.8 named storms, 6.9 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 121. The long-term averages for the past 63 years are 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an ACE of 103. TSR rates their skill level as good for these August forecasts--47% - 59% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. TSR predicts a 58% chance that U.S. land falling activity will be above average, a 26% chance it will be near average, and a 16% chance it will be below average. They project that 4 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.8 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2012 climatology are 3.1 named storms and 1.4 hurricanes. They rate their skill at making these August forecasts for U.S. landfalls just 9% - 18% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 1.4 named storms, 0.6 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

TSR's two predictors for their statistical model are the forecast July - September trade wind speed over the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic, and the forecast August - September 2013 sea surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic. Their model is calling for warmer than average SSTs and near average trade winds during these periods, and both of these factors should act to increase hurricane and tropical storm activity.


Figure 2. Comparison of the percent improvement over climatology for May and August seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 1999-2009 (May) and 1998-2009 (August), using the Mean Squared Error. Image credit: Verification of 12 years of NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts, National Hurricane Center.


Figure 3. Comparison of the percent improvement in mean square error over climatology for seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 2003-2012, using the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS). The figure shows the results using two different climatologies: a fixed 50-year (1950 - 1999) climatology, and a 2003 - 2012 climatology. Skill is poor for forecasts issued in December and April, moderate for June forecasts, and good for August forecasts. Image credit: Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.

FSU predicts an above-average hurricane season: 15 named storms
The Florida State University (FSU) Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) issued their fifth annual Atlantic hurricane season forecast on May 30, calling for a 70% probability of 12 - 17 named storms and 5 - 10 hurricanes. The mid-point forecast is for 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of 135. The scientists use a numerical atmospheric model developed at COAPS to understand seasonal predictability of hurricane activity. The model is one of only a handful of numerical models in the world being used to study seasonal hurricane activity and is different from the statistical methods used by other seasonal hurricane forecasters such as Colorado State, TSR, and PSU (NOAA uses a hybrid statistical-dynamical model technique.) The FSU forecast has been one of the best ones over the past four years:

2009 prediction: 8 named storms, 4 hurricanes. Actual: 9 named storms, 3 hurricanes
2010 prediction: 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 12 hurricanes
2011 prediction: 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 7 hurricanes
2012 prediction: 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 10 hurricanes

Penn State predicts an above-average hurricane season: 16 named storms
A statistical model by Penn State's Michael Mann and alumnus Michael Kozar is calling for an active Atlantic hurricane season with 16 named storms, plus or minus 4 storms. Their prediction was made using statistics of how past hurricane seasons have behaved in response to sea surface temperatures (SSTs), the El Niño/La Niña oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and other factors. The statistic model assumes that in 2013 the May 0.87°C above average temperatures in the MDR will persist throughout hurricane season, the El Niño phase will be neutral to slightly warm, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will be near average.

The PSU team has been making Atlantic hurricane season forecasts since 2007, and these predictions have done pretty well, except for in 2012, when an expected El Niño did not materialize:

2007 prediction: 15 named storms, Actual: 15
2009 prediction: 12.5, named storms, Actual: 9
2010 prediction: 23 named storms, Actual: 19
2011 prediction: 16 named storms, Actual: 19
2012 prediction: 10.5 named storms, Actual: 19

UK Met Office predicts a slightly above-average hurricane season: 14 named storms
The UKMET office forecast for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, issued May 13, calls for slightly above normal activity, with 14 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and an ACE index of 130. In contrast to the statistical models relied upon by CSU, TSR, and NOAA, the UKMET model is done strictly using two dynamical global seasonal prediction systems: the Met Office GloSea5 system and ECMWF system 4. In 2012, the Met Office forecast was for 10 tropical storms and an ACE index of 90. The actual numbers were 19 named storms and an ACE index of 123.


Figure 4. Total 2013 Atlantic hurricane season activity as predicted by twelve different groups.

NOAA predicts a below-average Eastern Pacific hurricane season
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 23, calls for a below-average season, with 11 - 16 named storms, 5 - 8 hurricanes, 1 - 4 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 60% - 105% of the median. The mid-point of these ranges gives us a forecast for 13.5 named storms, 6.5 hurricanes, and 2.5 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 82% of average. The 1981 - 2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.

NOAA predicts a below-average Central Pacific hurricane season
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Central Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 22, calls for a below-average season, with 1 - 3 tropical cyclones. An average season has 4 - 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes. Hawaii is the primary land area affected by Central Pacific tropical cyclones.

West Pacific typhoon season forecast not available this year
Dr. Johnny Chan of the City University of Hong Kong usually issues a seasonal forecast of typhoon season in the Western Pacific, but did not do so in 2012 or 2013. An average typhoon season has 27 named storms and 17 typhoons. Typhoon seasons immediately following a La Niña year typically see higher levels of activity in the South China Sea, especially between months of May and July. Also, the jet stream tends to dip farther south than usual to the south of Japan, helping steer more tropical cyclones towards Japan and Korea.

Quiet in the Atlantic this weekend
There are no Atlantic threat areas to discuss today, and none of the reliable models for tropical cyclone formation is predicting development during the coming seven days. However, there are some indications that the atmosphere over the tropical Atlantic will become more conducive for tropical storm formation beginning around August 15. The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, may move into the Atlantic then, increasing tropical storm formation odds. At the same time, the computer models are indicating an increase in moisture over the tropical Atlantic, due to a series of tropical waves expected to push off of the coast of Africa. There will also be several eastward-moving Convectively-Coupled Kelvin Waves (CCKWs) traversing the Atlantic during that period. These atmospheric disturbances have a great deal of upward-moving air, which helps strengthen the updrafts of tropical disturbances. Formation of the Eastern Pacific's Hurricane Gil and Henriette were aided by CCKWs. These same CCKWs will cross into the Atlantic and increase the odds of tropical storm formation during the period August 15 - 20.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 1276. nrtiwlnvragn:


Images missed the 06Z update

11W UTOR 130810 1200 14.0N 128.2E WPAC 90 956
11W UTOR 130810 1200 14.0N 128.2E WPAC 90 956
11W UTOR 130810 0600 13.8N 129.2E WPAC 70 970
11W UTOR 130810 0600 13.8N 129.2E WPAC 70 970
11W UTOR 130810 0600 13.8N 129.2E WPAC 70 970
11W UTOR 130810 0000 13.6N 130.5E WPAC 55 982
11W UTOR 130810 0000 13.6N 130.5E WPAC 55 982
11W UTOR 130809 1800 13.5N 131.7E WPAC 45 989
11W UTOR 130809 1200 13.5N 132.7E WPAC 35 996
11W UTOR 130809 0600 13.5N 133.7E WPAC 25 1004
11W UTOR 130809 0000 13.3N 134.8E WPAC 25 1004
11W UTOR 130808 1800 12.7N 135.8E WPAC 25 1004
11W UTOR 130808 1200 12.3N 136.5E WPAC 20 1005
11W UTOR 130808 0600 12.1N 137.2E WPAC 15 1010


Still impressive for a 12 hour timeframe.


Ah, that makes a bit more sense then! I was literally blown away when I saw that it dropped 26mb in such a short time LOL But as you said, even with the extra time added in, still impressive! It'll be interesting to see how much more it can decrease, as it still has about a day or so over water!
Member Since: June 16, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1019
Quoting 1280. Socalmargie:
honey your not bursting my bubble at all. I amafraid of hurricanes and my family said not to worry this year.. and alot of people on here have been saying storms cant get strated because of the elements

I apologize for coming across a little sarcastic. I really do hope you don't get a bad one this year. Though now in early to mid-August we seem to not be as much at risk, but late August on, we should keep an eye out.
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Quoting 1280. Socalmargie:
honey your not bursting my bubble at all. I amafraid of hurricanes and my family said not to worry this year.. and alot of people on here have been saying storms cant get strated because of the elements
"A lot" as in one person. I'd hate to self glorify myself but refer to my post 1253 as to why this season will very likely be well above average (and already is).
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24548
1287. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting 1278. sar2401:

Oh my gosh! I hope South Carolina has some better dam safety agency than this one. You can't just "let the guy downstream with a dam" know you're lowering your water level. Any drainage with multiple dams needs to have carefully controlled releases from upstream to downstream to prevent inadvertent dam over topping and downstream flooding. That's some really horrible advice coming from a state agency.


I've lived in SC..somehow this didn't all surprise me..

Doesn't look bad yet except for maybe Lake Lure.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 208 Comments: 39044
Quoting 1280. Socalmargie:
honey your not bursting my bubble at all. I amafraid of hurricanes and my family said not to worry this year.. and alot of people on here have been saying storms cant get strated because of the elements


As mentioned before, it only takes 1 storm. So it really don't matter how active the season is, if a storm strikes your area.

Hurricane Andrew, the first named storm of the season wasn't until Aug. 24 in 1992.

Just 1 storm like hurricane Andrew would make a season a bad one.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8844
1285. barbamz
Long article assessing the last European heat wave, which should be gone now. I'm sure Dr. Masters is already sharpening his knives for the retrospect of world's July temperatures ;)

Austria sets new all-time high temperature as European heat wave hits peak
Washington Post, by Justin Grieser, Published: August 9
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 62 Comments: 6484
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610

Quoting 1271. sar2401:

Or just pay for a membership. You won't see any ads then. Adblock is also not free after 30 days, so why not just pay up here?
Adblock is perfectly free for me..? It's a free app.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24548
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
Quoting 1266. sar2401:

Fine and dandy. I have no clue how this season will turn out, and won't until about US Thanksgiving. There are probably 35 or 40 people on here who live in some part of the Caribbean, and lots more of us who have spent a significant amount of time in the Caribbean. Do some research on Caribbean SST's and trade winds. You'll find out a lot more about how storms behave in the Caribbean if you at least understand those two things.

I understand that Carribean SSTs warm enough for development late into the season as is normal and it may produce some storms if the upper level winds are not unfavorable however these storms will likely not effect the US since the SSTs north of 25 degrees latittude will significantly be cooling by then.
Member Since: July 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 158
Quoting 1245. LAsurvivor:


For me, since I live in Louisiana,

1. Katrina
2. Audrey
3. 1938 Florida Hurricane
4. 1900 Galveston Hurricane
5. Camille
I assume you mean the 1928 South Florida Hurricane
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1278. sar2401
Quoting Skyepony:
SC Dam Operators Urged to Prepare for Storms

COLUMBIA, S.C. – Owners and operators of reservoirs throughout South Carolina should check their dams immediately and during the next several days for possible problems caused by heavy rainfall, the state Department of Health and Environmental Control announced today.

“Owners who have the ability to lower their reservoir’s water level should safely do so to provide additional storage for the anticipated rainfall,” said John Poole with DHEC’s dam safety program. “If there is a dam downstream of your dam and you are lowering your water level, please contact the owners of the downstream dam and advise of your actions. Before and after the storm has passed, any accumulated trash and debris should be cleared from spillways.

“Dam owners should monitor the conditions at their dams during events that can produce flooding,” Poole said. “If problems prompt potential failure of the dam, or if failure is imminent, the owner or operator of the dam should contact the downstream property owners and local public safety officials.”

For more information about dam and reservoir safety, see DHEC’s webpage at:http://www.scdhec.gov/damsafety.


Get a Wundermemebership or upload your PWS data here (that gives you a free membership. Not only do you get no annoying ads, Nexrad loops out up to 40 frames long..

Oh my gosh! I hope South Carolina has some better dam safety agency than this one. You can't just "let the guy downstream with a dam" know you're lowering your water level. Any drainage with multiple dams needs to have carefully controlled releases from upstream to downstream to prevent inadvertent dam over topping and downstream flooding. That's some really horrible advice coming from a state agency.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16955
Quoting 1275. Socalmargie:
i like what im hearing that there wont be many storms this year... hope everyone is right about that

I'm sorry to burst your bubble, but that is not the overall consensus.
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Quoting 1214. Envoirment:
WOW! Utor's pressure decreased by 26mb in less than 4 hours based on Navy estimates!

At 9:01 UTC it was at 982mb



Then at 12:32 UTC it was at 956mb



Some very rapid deepening! And it'll continue for a little while longer it seems.

P.S: Right click "view image" and it'll show pressure estimates in the url.


Images missed the 06Z update

11W UTOR 130810 1200 14.0N 128.2E WPAC 90 956
11W UTOR 130810 1200 14.0N 128.2E WPAC 90 956
11W UTOR 130810 0600 13.8N 129.2E WPAC 70 970
11W UTOR 130810 0600 13.8N 129.2E WPAC 70 970
11W UTOR 130810 0600 13.8N 129.2E WPAC 70 970
11W UTOR 130810 0000 13.6N 130.5E WPAC 55 982
11W UTOR 130810 0000 13.6N 130.5E WPAC 55 982
11W UTOR 130809 1800 13.5N 131.7E WPAC 45 989
11W UTOR 130809 1200 13.5N 132.7E WPAC 35 996
11W UTOR 130809 0600 13.5N 133.7E WPAC 25 1004
11W UTOR 130809 0000 13.3N 134.8E WPAC 25 1004
11W UTOR 130808 1800 12.7N 135.8E WPAC 25 1004
11W UTOR 130808 1200 12.3N 136.5E WPAC 20 1005
11W UTOR 130808 0600 12.1N 137.2E WPAC 15 1010


Still impressive for a 12 hour timeframe.
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Quoting 1068. JLPR2:
Finally! One that is actually firing convection after moving into water, not much yet but it is a welcomed change.





We need the suppressing influence of the negative MJO to go away.
I keep looking at how far north into the SAHEL these AEWs are moving. That next one is already over Mauritania and looks like it may exit over the W Sahara coast... if that gets out there, wouldn't it act to reduce the SAL north of the next few waves?

Quoting 1110. LAsurvivor:


I have to say I agree with this. It seems even forecasting the weather is all about the almighty dollar now. I am not a weather "geek" as you put it, but I do follow weather closely and wonder how many people are needlessly alarmed by all the publicity given to so many different weather forecasters. For a very long time we had no CSU forecasts, nothing like that. The local TV weather guy got his info from the NHC and, for the most part, once the storm got closer, it was fairly accurate. Some will disagree with me and that's O.K.

I mostly read both Dr. Masters'blog and check the NHC to see trends and get good info that is easy to understand and digest. I have gradually learned what the MJO is, El Nino, ENSO, SAL,ULL, vorticity and all the other terms that are thrown around on here with regularity. However, sometimes it seems some on here are more concerned with showing their weather prowess and their mastery of all of these neat little weather terms than trying to actually give an opinion. I know this is a passion for some, just not for me. I am just curious and like to follow weather. I am sure I'll get a sarcastic, tongue in cheek post from someone like I did from my first post to this blog, so fire at will.
Comments like the bolded bit make it almost impossible to resist, but I will keep my tongue out of my cheek... :o)

The rest of what you say actually makes a lot of sense.

Don't let the early sarcasm get u down.... Welcome to the blog!

Quoting 1112. islander101010:
some spin and building convection near the northern leewards
Any chance this could be the germ of what pulls together in the WCar next week?

Quoting 1136. mikatnight:
Good Morning!

8:07 am (12:07 GMT)

Workers at the new Lantana bridge go over the final details before the paving process, which is set to begin Monday.


Blasted paparazzi! It's getting to where I can't even pee without a flashbulb going off! (sigh) Being a celebrity has its downside...

While Grothar's blob certainly delivered rain across the state yesterday, all we got was a whopping 0.01". Today and tomorrow are supposed to be sunny, clear and hot.

Busy morning, late start...check back in later. Have a great day everyone!
No rain = good road paving wx... and @ Dex, it's all your fault 4 being such a cutie... lol

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22682
Quoting 1271. sar2401:

Or just pay for a membership. You won't see any ads then. Adblock is also not free after 30 days, so why not just pay up here?


I just used my "send a free gift account" option to opal92nwf. Never used this feature before so let's see if it works. :)
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Notice both the GFS and NAM both agree on a Caribbean Low forming in few days.
GFS 81 hours


NAM 81 hours
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1271. sar2401
Quoting opal92nwf:

I'll have to look into that thanks

Or just pay for a membership. You won't see any ads then. Adblock is also not free after 30 days, so why not just pay up here?
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16955
1270. Grothar
Then we have Henriette


Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27074
1269. Skyepony (Mod)
SC Dam Operators Urged to Prepare for Storms

COLUMBIA, S.C. – Owners and operators of reservoirs throughout South Carolina should check their dams immediately and during the next several days for possible problems caused by heavy rainfall, the state Department of Health and Environmental Control announced today.

“Owners who have the ability to lower their reservoir’s water level should safely do so to provide additional storage for the anticipated rainfall,” said John Poole with DHEC’s dam safety program. “If there is a dam downstream of your dam and you are lowering your water level, please contact the owners of the downstream dam and advise of your actions. Before and after the storm has passed, any accumulated trash and debris should be cleared from spillways.

“Dam owners should monitor the conditions at their dams during events that can produce flooding,” Poole said. “If problems prompt potential failure of the dam, or if failure is imminent, the owner or operator of the dam should contact the downstream property owners and local public safety officials.”

For more information about dam and reservoir safety, see DHEC’s webpage at:http://www.scdhec.gov/damsafety.

Quoting 1256. opal92nwf:
I hate ads x 10^1000000 they are so STUPID!! Especially the cheap ones that are disguised to look like an article or ones that move around so much that you have to glance at them at least once, and then there are the ones that I have been seeing like the past half year! GETTING REALLY OLD. Disgusting. Makes my experience here less enjoyable!

Get a Wundermemebership or upload your PWS data here (that gives you a free membership. Not only do you get no annoying ads, Nexrad loops out up to 40 frames long..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 208 Comments: 39044
Quoting 1262. interpreter:
2005 was an anomolous season so I throw that out. The set up this year is nothing like 2005 overall and maybe more like 2008 which was an above average season, however the TUTT has been persistent this year and we believe it will continue which will cause windshear thus a below average season.
I didn't use 2005 as an analog season, I just mentioned it had a dead CV hurricane season. Irene was the only Cape Verde hurricane. This will not be the case this year. The TUTT  hasn't been persistent this year, because shear would be destructive in the GOMEX  and in the Caribbean when this isn't the case as I've pointed out to you.

It also isn't the case in the tropical Atlantic and the sub-tropical Atlantic, as shear has been running below-average there as well.



Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24548
Quoting 1259. barbamz:
Heat wave continues to scorch S China
China Daily, updated: 2013-08-10 13:46

BEIJING - A heat wave will continue to scorch South China over the next three days with temperatures rising over 35 degrees Celsius, the National Meteorological Center (NMC) forecast on Friday.

The country's weather observatory said hot weather will hit areas along the Yellow and Huaihe rivers, regions along the Yangtze and Huaihe rivers, areas south of the Yangtze River, South China, as well as parts of Sichuan province, Guizhou province, Chongqing municipality and Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region in the coming three days.

Parts of Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Anhui, Hubei, Hunan and Jiangxi provinces will see temperatures climb to 40 to 41 degrees Celsius, according to the observatory.

The NMC also forecast that rainstorms will sweep parts of Yunnan, Sichuan and Heilongjiang provinces as well as Inner Mongolia autonomous region over the next three days.

It added that rainfall will hit northwest China, Inner Mongolia and North and Northeast China on Sunday and Monday.


Aaawwwe:

A giant panda lies on blocks of ice to cool off from the summer heat at its zoo enclosure in Wuhan, Hubei province. A record-breaking summer heatwave will continue to bake most parts of southern China over the next three days, Xinhua News Agency reported. REUTERS/China Daily
Source of the pic: EuroNews
Ya think a person, whether a Panda or a human could get a few hours of rest without a group of people taking your picture...I'm so glad no-one watches me when I am sleeping.... I have no makeup on and there are a few unknown vocal sounds that may occur...Poor Panda....
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 6000
1266. sar2401
Quoting interpreter:

This has not been and will likely not be a favorable season for storm development considering the upper level wind flow. All of the other conditions seem to be coming together to give the appearance of favorable conditions but if shear is persistent nothing will really get going and that is the forecast for the next several weeks.

Fine and dandy. I have no clue how this season will turn out, and won't until about US Thanksgiving. There are probably 35 or 40 people on here who live in some part of the Caribbean, and lots more of us who have spent a significant amount of time in the Caribbean. Do some research on Caribbean SST's and trade winds. You'll find out a lot more about how storms behave in the Caribbean if you at least understand those two things.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16955
There is a new Tropical Wave introduced in the 12z surface analysis charts just off African coast.

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1264. Grothar
Utor is getting some white in him. Looks bad for the Philippines.


Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27074
Quoting 1253. CybrTeddy:
In summary I believe that this hurricane season will be very much so above average, simply because all the conditions are coming together for this to happen. The CSU, TSR, and NOAA wouldn't make up an August forecast to be above average if they didn't have ample evidence to suggest otherwise.



Gotta love common sense and an acute ability to observe and understand! Thank you, CT! ;)
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
Quoting 1253. CybrTeddy:

I can tell you just want a nice good winter. :-)

However, in regards to your forecast I'm going to have to disagree.



  •  While there's been several SAL outbreaks, I'd hardly consider it enough to kill the season. As you'll recall, 2005 also had several SAL outbreaks that killed the CV season. This isn't the case this year, as we've already had one CV storm, Dorian in July and another that formed in the MDR and that would be Chantal. Here's the latest SST anomalies in the MDR, if SAL was nearly as bad as you seem to make it out to be the anomalies would be in the negatives, when they're trending to be average-above average.




  • We are indeed in an ENSO neutral status, however we are not trending towards an El Nino. It appears to be quite the contrary actually, we appear to be trending towards a La Nina state and indeed may briefly enter a La Nina state during hurricane season. If an El Nino ever develops, it will be after the season is over. All of the climate models, now including the CFS and ECMWF are all showing that cool-neutral conditions will persist over the eastern Pacific and the MSLP will be below average.

  • Looking at the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and western Atlantic shear does not appear to be drastically above average or at all above average. The Gulf of Mexico, for example, has been trending below average with 850mb-200mb level shear.


  • While the Caribbean has only been trending at an average/perhaps slightly above average amount of shear. This shear however is predicted to lessen per the GFS as these tropical cyclones begin to get going.

2005 was an anomolous season so I throw that out. The set up this year is nothing like 2005 overall and maybe more like 2008 which was an above average season, however the TUTT has been persistent this year and we believe it will continue which will cause windshear thus a below average season.
Member Since: July 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 158
Quoting 1258. CybrTeddy:

You could install AdBlock+...

I'll have to look into that thanks
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Here's something very interesting to pass the time in this despicable lull:

TWC: A Blizzard Inside Every Hurricane
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1259. barbamz
Heat wave continues to scorch S China
China Daily, updated: 2013-08-10 13:46

BEIJING - A heat wave will continue to scorch South China over the next three days with temperatures rising over 35 degrees Celsius, the National Meteorological Center (NMC) forecast on Friday.

The country's weather observatory said hot weather will hit areas along the Yellow and Huaihe rivers, regions along the Yangtze and Huaihe rivers, areas south of the Yangtze River, South China, as well as parts of Sichuan province, Guizhou province, Chongqing municipality and Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region in the coming three days.

Parts of Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Anhui, Hubei, Hunan and Jiangxi provinces will see temperatures climb to 40 to 41 degrees Celsius, according to the observatory.

The NMC also forecast that rainstorms will sweep parts of Yunnan, Sichuan and Heilongjiang provinces as well as Inner Mongolia autonomous region over the next three days.

It added that rainfall will hit northwest China, Inner Mongolia and North and Northeast China on Sunday and Monday.


Aaawwwe:

A giant panda lies on blocks of ice to cool off from the summer heat at its zoo enclosure in Wuhan, Hubei province. A record-breaking summer heatwave will continue to bake most parts of southern China over the next three days, Xinhua News Agency reported. REUTERS/China Daily
Source of the pic: EuroNews
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 62 Comments: 6484

Quoting 1256. opal92nwf:
I hate ads x 10^1000000 they are so STUPID!! Especially the cheap ones that are disguised to look like an article or ones that move around so much that you have to glance at them at least once, and then there are the ones that I have been seeing like the past half year! GETTING REALLY OLD. Disgusting. Makes my experience here less enjoyable!

"Oh Where, where have the hurricanes gone, Oh where, where could they be?"
You could install AdBlock+...
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24548
1257. sar2401
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


Al Roker has his own show (Wake Up With Al) on TWC, along with being the Today's show main weather man.

He isn't a meteorologist. I dought he's taken 1 college level meteorology course.

Indeed. You can mark the day they hired Al away from the Today show as the the day The Weather Channel became The Entertainment with Occasional Weather Channel.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16955
I hate ads x 10^1000000 they are so STUPID!! Especially the cheap ones that are disguised to look like an article or ones that move around so much that you have to glance at them at least once, and then there are the ones that I have been seeing like the past half year! GETTING REALLY OLD. Disgusting. Makes my experience here less enjoyable!

"Oh Where, where have the hurricanes gone, Oh where, where could they be?"
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1248. Grothar:


No, haven't heard from Pedley in days. I am getting worried.
I sure hope Pedley is ok
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 6000
Quoting 1237. sar2401:

Well, at least it's kind of funny. I can tell you've ever spent any time diving in the Caribbean, or probably any time in the Caribbean at all. We could have a full blown blizzard in Iowa and the Caribbean SST's would still be the highs of the year. North American weather conditions don't even begin to affect Caribbean SST's until at least December. The rest of it appears t be some kind of weather word salad you threw together. I might be inclined to read it all if it appeared you had any clue about how Caribbean Sea water temperatures work.

This has not been and will likely not be a favorable season for storm development considering the upper level wind flow. All of the other conditions seem to be coming together to give the appearance of favorable conditions but if shear is persistent nothing will really get going and that is the forecast for the next several weeks.
Member Since: July 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 158
Quoting 1211. interpreter:
Seasonal Forecast:
The TUTT and and an abundance of dry SAL across the MDR are firmly entrenched as it has been all season. With the ENSO in a neutral status at this time and trending toward an El Nino we see a much below normal season for the development of tropical systems in the tropical Atlantic this year. The TUTT is creating wind shear through most of the GOM, Carribean and western Atlantic. If any storms get going in the eastern Atlantic they will likely be sheared apart as they move westward. We do not see this changing much until mid September, but by then waters will begin cooling significantly with an early onset of fall-like conditions in North America and the northern Atlantic Ocean.
I can tell you just want a nice good winter. :-)

However, in regards to your forecast I'm going to have to disagree.

  •  While there's been several SAL outbreaks, I'd hardly consider it enough to kill the season. As you'll recall, 2005 also had several SAL outbreaks that killed the CV season. This isn't the case this year, as we've already had one CV storm, Dorian in July and another that formed in the MDR and that would be Chantal. Here's the latest SST anomalies in the MDR, if SAL was nearly as bad as you seem to make it out to be the anomalies would be in the negatives, when they're trending to be well above average.


  • We are indeed in an ENSO neutral status, however we are not trending towards an El Nino. It appears to be quite the contrary actually, we appear to be trending towards a La Nina state and indeed may briefly enter a La Nina state during hurricane season. If an El Nino ever develops, it will be after the season is over. All of the climate models, now including the CFS and ECMWF are all showing that cool-neutral conditions will persist over the eastern Pacific and the MSLP will be below average.
  • Looking at the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and western Atlantic shear does not appear to be drastically above average or at all above average. The Gulf of Mexico, for example, has been trending below average with 850mb-200mb level shear.

  • While the Caribbean has only been trending at an average/perhaps slightly above average amount of shear. This shear however is predicted to lessen per the GFS as these tropical cyclones begin to get going.
In summary I believe that this hurricane season will be very much so above average, simply because all the conditions are coming together for this to happen. The CSU, TSR, and NOAA wouldn't make up an August forecast to be above average if they didn't have ample evidence to suggest otherwise.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24548
1252. sar2401
Quoting Skyepony:
The Southern California wildfire that prompted an emergency declaration continued to burn in the San Jacinto Mountains on Saturday, consuming more than 25 square miles of terrain.

California Gov. Jerry Brown declared a state of emergency Friday for Riverside County in the wake of the Silver Fire, a blaze that has claimed nearly 30 structures -- most of them homes -- over an 18,000-acre spread.

Evacuation orders for the areas of Snow Creek, Cabazon, Mt. Edna and Poppet Flats were lifted Friday evening as firefighters gained 40 percent containment of the blaze, according to the Riverside County Fire Department.

More than 1,630 firefighters were battling the blaze amid the strong wind gusts, but cool temperatures aided them in getting some control over the flames as it headed east toward Palm Springs on Friday, clouding the resort town with smoke.

Residents in Twin Pines and Silent Valley remained evacuated, and Highway 243 was still closed north of Poppet Flats to Wesley Street in Banning.

Since it broke out about 2 p.m. Wednesday in the foothills of the San Jacinto Mountains about 90 miles east of Los Angeles, the Silver Fire has injured five firefighters and severely burned one resident -- who was found by fire officials inside a travel trailer near the fire's origin at Wolfskill Truck Trail (map).



Anybody heard from PedleyCA..was he was running from fire when last seen?



Not motivating me to get on with my day:)


I haven't seen anything from Pedley but, knowing his location and looking at the fire map, his area appears to be on the right side of the fire, with the flank moving away from him. I hope he and his family are OK.

In terms of stepping outside, I have to go to Walmart to get my many old geezer pills. It's currently 90 with a heat index of 102, and it's sure not getting any cooler today. :-)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16955
1251. Sfloridacat5
2:43 PM GMT on August 10, 2013
Quoting 1246. sar2401:

Anyone else get the feeling Al has had one too many three martini lunches during his career?


Al Roker has his own show (Wake Up With Al) on TWC, along with being the Today's show main weather man.

He isn't a meteorologist. I dought he's taken 1 college level meteorology course.

Not hating on him, but he doesn't know much about weather and climate. If you closely listen to his discussion of the weather it's obvious.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8844
1250. PalmBeachWeather
2:42 PM GMT on August 10, 2013
Quoting 1246. sar2401:

Anyone else get the feeling Al has had one too many three martini lunches during his career?
Or maybe too much of Steph Abrahms
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 6000
1249. PalmBeachWeather
2:41 PM GMT on August 10, 2013
Quoting 1243. sar2401:

Good morning, Gro. Hey, it's not our fault you have weak arteries. :-) I can live without the hash and country fried steak but those cheese grits....yummm. I had no idea what grits was before I moved down here. I thought it was some kind of disgusting animal part. Now I can't live without them especially those cheesy ones. I guess my left artery will be joining yours. 8>)
sar...The quickie restaurants serve the 5 minute grits... Real grits are fantastic...Made with half&half and cheese...Yummy
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 6000
1248. Grothar
2:39 PM GMT on August 10, 2013
Quoting 1241. Skyepony:
The Southern California wildfire that prompted an emergency declaration continued to burn in the San Jacinto Mountains on Saturday, consuming more than 25 square miles of terrain.

California Gov. Jerry Brown declared a state of emergency Friday for Riverside County in the wake of the Silver Fire, a blaze that has claimed nearly 30 structures -- most of them homes -- over an 18,000-acre spread.

Evacuation orders for the areas of Snow Creek, Cabazon, Mt. Edna and Poppet Flats were lifted Friday evening as firefighters gained 40 percent containment of the blaze, according to the Riverside County Fire Department.

More than 1,630 firefighters were battling the blaze amid the strong wind gusts, but cool temperatures aided them in getting some control over the flames as it headed east toward Palm Springs on Friday, clouding the resort town with smoke.

Residents in Twin Pines and Silent Valley remained evacuated, and Highway 243 was still closed north of Poppet Flats to Wesley Street in Banning.

Since it broke out about 2 p.m. Wednesday in the foothills of the San Jacinto Mountains about 90 miles east of Los Angeles, the Silver Fire has injured five firefighters and severely burned one resident -- who was found by fire officials inside a travel trailer near the fire's origin at Wolfskill Truck Trail (map).



Anybody heard from PedleyCA..was he was running from fire when last seen?



Not motivating me to get on with my day:)


No, haven't heard from Pedley in days. I am getting worried.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27074
1247. TheDawnAwakening
2:39 PM GMT on August 10, 2013
Quoting 1237. sar2401:

Well, at least it's kind of funny. I can tell you've ever spent any time diving in the Caribbean, or probably any time in the Caribbean at all. We could have a full blown blizzard in Iowa and the Caribbean SST's would still be the highs of the year. North American weather conditions don't even begin to affect Caribbean SST's until at least December. The rest of it appears t be some kind of weather word salad you threw together. I might be inclined to read it all if it appeared you had any clue about how Caribbean Sea water temperatures work.


El Nino's enhance the sub tropical jet throughout the year, which in turn brings lows from the tropical Pacific into CA which enhances rainfall for the PAC sw us coastline. La Nina's enhance the polar jet which becomes especially enhanced in the winter time while it remains weaker during the summer. So I anticipate ridging will be forecasted for the last half of August as NAO transitions to positive. Favorable east coast landfalls are setting up.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 246 Comments: 3970
1246. sar2401
2:39 PM GMT on August 10, 2013
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Al was late for work

Anyone else get the feeling Al has had one too many three martini lunches during his career?
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16955
1245. LAsurvivor
2:39 PM GMT on August 10, 2013
Quoting 1203. CybrTeddy:

1) Great Hurricane of 1780.
2) Galveston Hurricane of 1900.
3) Hurricane Mitch.
4) Hurricane Katrina.
5) 1935 Labor Day hurricane.


For me, since I live in Louisiana,

1. Katrina
2. Audrey
3. 1938 Florida Hurricane
4. 1900 Galveston Hurricane
5. Camille
Member Since: August 8, 2013 Posts: 2 Comments: 46
1244. Sfloridacat5
2:39 PM GMT on August 10, 2013
Quoting 1242. PalmBeachWeather:
Al was late for work


I just checked and Boise's humidity is forecasted to be 9% at 6 pm today.

Temps in the 90s with less than 10% humidity is pretty easy to handle.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8844
1243. sar2401
2:38 PM GMT on August 10, 2013
Quoting Grothar:


Thank you. Now my left artery just clogged up from reading that.

Good morning, Gro. Hey, it's not our fault you have weak arteries. :-) I can live without the hash and country fried steak but those cheese grits....yummm. I had no idea what grits was before I moved down here. I thought it was some kind of disgusting animal part. Now I can't live without them especially those cheesy ones. I guess my left artery will be joining yours. 8>)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16955
1242. PalmBeachWeather
2:36 PM GMT on August 10, 2013
Quoting 1240. Sfloridacat5:


Yesterday Al Roker was bragging about how Boise Idaho was going to be hotter than Miami Fl.
Boise high 96 and Miami was 92.

But Boise's humidity was around 20% yesterday afternoon vs. 60% for Miami.
Heat Index was significantly higher in Miami.
Al was late for work
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 6000
1241. Skyepony (Mod)
2:35 PM GMT on August 10, 2013
The Southern California wildfire that prompted an emergency declaration continued to burn in the San Jacinto Mountains on Saturday, consuming more than 25 square miles of terrain.

California Gov. Jerry Brown declared a state of emergency Friday for Riverside County in the wake of the Silver Fire, a blaze that has claimed nearly 30 structures -- most of them homes -- over an 18,000-acre spread.

Evacuation orders for the areas of Snow Creek, Cabazon, Mt. Edna and Poppet Flats were lifted Friday evening as firefighters gained 40 percent containment of the blaze, according to the Riverside County Fire Department.

More than 1,630 firefighters were battling the blaze amid the strong wind gusts, but cool temperatures aided them in getting some control over the flames as it headed east toward Palm Springs on Friday, clouding the resort town with smoke.

Residents in Twin Pines and Silent Valley remained evacuated, and Highway 243 was still closed north of Poppet Flats to Wesley Street in Banning.

Since it broke out about 2 p.m. Wednesday in the foothills of the San Jacinto Mountains about 90 miles east of Los Angeles, the Silver Fire has injured five firefighters and severely burned one resident -- who was found by fire officials inside a travel trailer near the fire's origin at Wolfskill Truck Trail (map).



Anybody heard from PedleyCA..was he was running from fire when last seen?


Quoting 1232. PalmBeachWeather:
I stuck my head outside here in Boynton Beach....I ran quickly back inside....No way Jose!

Not motivating me to get on with my day:)
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 208 Comments: 39044
1240. Sfloridacat5
2:35 PM GMT on August 10, 2013
Quoting 1232. PalmBeachWeather:
I stuck my head outside here in Boynton Beach....I ran quickly back inside....No way Jose!


Yesterday Al Roker was bragging about how Boise Idaho was going to be hotter than Miami Fl.
Boise high 96 and Miami was 92.

But Boise's humidity was around 20% yesterday afternoon vs. 60% for Miami.
Heat Index was significantly higher in Miami.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8844

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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