An Active Atlantic Hurricane Season Still Predicted by NOAA, CSU, and TSR

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:07 PM GMT on August 09, 2013

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As we stand on the cusp of the peak part of hurricane season, all of the major groups that perform long-range seasonal hurricane forecasts are still calling for an active 2013 Atlantic hurricane season. NOAA forecasts an above-normal and possibly very active Atlantic hurricane season in 2013, in their August 8 outlook. They give a 70% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of an near-normal season, and 5% chance of a below-normal season. They predict a 70% chance that there will be 13 - 19 named storms, 6 - 9 hurricanes, and 3 - 5 major hurricanes, with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 120% - 190% of the median. If we take the midpoint of these numbers, NOAA is calling for 16 named storms, 7.5 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 155% of normal. This is well above the 1981 - 2010 average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Hurricane seasons during the active hurricane period 1995 - 2012 have averaged 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 151% of the median.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Dorian on July 25, 2013, when the storm reached peak intensity--sustained winds of 60 mph. Formation of early-season tropical storms like Chantal and Dorian in June and July in the deep tropics is usually a harbinger of an active Atlantic hurricane season. Image credit: NASA.

NOAA cites five main reasons to expect an active remainder of hurricane season:

1) Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are above average in the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes, from the coast of Africa to the Caribbean. As of August 9, SST were 0.4°C (0.8°F) above average.
2) Trade winds are weaker than average across the MDR, which has caused the African Monsoon to grow wetter and stronger, the amount of spin over the MDR to increase, and the amount of vertical wind shear to decrease.
3) No El Niño event is present or expected this fall.
4) There have been two early-season tropical storms in the deep tropics (Tropical Storms Chantal and Dorian), which is generally a harbinger of an above-normal season.
5) We are in an active hurricane period that began in 1995.

Colorado State predicts a much above-average hurricane season
A much above-average Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2013, according to the seasonal hurricane forecast issued August 2 by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). The CSU team is calling for 18 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 142. The forecast calls for an above-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (40% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (40% chance, 30% chance is average). The risk of a major hurricane in the Caribbean is also above average, at 53% (42% is average.)

Analogue years
The CSU team picked five previous years when atmospheric and oceanic conditions were similar to what we are seeing this year: cool neutral ENSO conditions and slightly above-average tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures. Those five years were 2008, a very active year with 16 named storms and 4 major hurricanes--Gustav, Ike, Paloma, and Omar; 2007, an active year with 15 named storms and two Category 5 storms--Dean and Felix; 1996, an above average year with 13 named storms and 6 major hurricanes--Edouard, Hortense, Fran, Bertha, Isidore, and Lili; 1966, an average year with 11 named storms and 3 major hurricanes--Inez, Alma, and Faith; and 1952, a below average year with 7 named storms and 3 major hurricanes. The average activity during these five analogue years was 12.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes, and 3.8 major hurricanes.

TSR predicts an above-average hurricane season: 14.8 named storms
The August 6 forecast for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season made by British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) calls for an active season with 14.8 named storms, 6.9 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 121. The long-term averages for the past 63 years are 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an ACE of 103. TSR rates their skill level as good for these August forecasts--47% - 59% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. TSR predicts a 58% chance that U.S. land falling activity will be above average, a 26% chance it will be near average, and a 16% chance it will be below average. They project that 4 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.8 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2012 climatology are 3.1 named storms and 1.4 hurricanes. They rate their skill at making these August forecasts for U.S. landfalls just 9% - 18% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 1.4 named storms, 0.6 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

TSR's two predictors for their statistical model are the forecast July - September trade wind speed over the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic, and the forecast August - September 2013 sea surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic. Their model is calling for warmer than average SSTs and near average trade winds during these periods, and both of these factors should act to increase hurricane and tropical storm activity.


Figure 2. Comparison of the percent improvement over climatology for May and August seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 1999-2009 (May) and 1998-2009 (August), using the Mean Squared Error. Image credit: Verification of 12 years of NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts, National Hurricane Center.


Figure 3. Comparison of the percent improvement in mean square error over climatology for seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 2003-2012, using the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS). The figure shows the results using two different climatologies: a fixed 50-year (1950 - 1999) climatology, and a 2003 - 2012 climatology. Skill is poor for forecasts issued in December and April, moderate for June forecasts, and good for August forecasts. Image credit: Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.

FSU predicts an above-average hurricane season: 15 named storms
The Florida State University (FSU) Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) issued their fifth annual Atlantic hurricane season forecast on May 30, calling for a 70% probability of 12 - 17 named storms and 5 - 10 hurricanes. The mid-point forecast is for 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of 135. The scientists use a numerical atmospheric model developed at COAPS to understand seasonal predictability of hurricane activity. The model is one of only a handful of numerical models in the world being used to study seasonal hurricane activity and is different from the statistical methods used by other seasonal hurricane forecasters such as Colorado State, TSR, and PSU (NOAA uses a hybrid statistical-dynamical model technique.) The FSU forecast has been one of the best ones over the past four years:

2009 prediction: 8 named storms, 4 hurricanes. Actual: 9 named storms, 3 hurricanes
2010 prediction: 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 12 hurricanes
2011 prediction: 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 7 hurricanes
2012 prediction: 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 10 hurricanes

Penn State predicts an above-average hurricane season: 16 named storms
A statistical model by Penn State's Michael Mann and alumnus Michael Kozar is calling for an active Atlantic hurricane season with 16 named storms, plus or minus 4 storms. Their prediction was made using statistics of how past hurricane seasons have behaved in response to sea surface temperatures (SSTs), the El Niño/La Niña oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and other factors. The statistic model assumes that in 2013 the May 0.87°C above average temperatures in the MDR will persist throughout hurricane season, the El Niño phase will be neutral to slightly warm, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will be near average.

The PSU team has been making Atlantic hurricane season forecasts since 2007, and these predictions have done pretty well, except for in 2012, when an expected El Niño did not materialize:

2007 prediction: 15 named storms, Actual: 15
2009 prediction: 12.5, named storms, Actual: 9
2010 prediction: 23 named storms, Actual: 19
2011 prediction: 16 named storms, Actual: 19
2012 prediction: 10.5 named storms, Actual: 19

UK Met Office predicts a slightly above-average hurricane season: 14 named storms
The UKMET office forecast for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, issued May 13, calls for slightly above normal activity, with 14 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and an ACE index of 130. In contrast to the statistical models relied upon by CSU, TSR, and NOAA, the UKMET model is done strictly using two dynamical global seasonal prediction systems: the Met Office GloSea5 system and ECMWF system 4. In 2012, the Met Office forecast was for 10 tropical storms and an ACE index of 90. The actual numbers were 19 named storms and an ACE index of 123.


Figure 4. Total 2013 Atlantic hurricane season activity as predicted by twelve different groups.

NOAA predicts a below-average Eastern Pacific hurricane season
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 23, calls for a below-average season, with 11 - 16 named storms, 5 - 8 hurricanes, 1 - 4 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 60% - 105% of the median. The mid-point of these ranges gives us a forecast for 13.5 named storms, 6.5 hurricanes, and 2.5 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 82% of average. The 1981 - 2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.

NOAA predicts a below-average Central Pacific hurricane season
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Central Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 22, calls for a below-average season, with 1 - 3 tropical cyclones. An average season has 4 - 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes. Hawaii is the primary land area affected by Central Pacific tropical cyclones.

West Pacific typhoon season forecast not available this year
Dr. Johnny Chan of the City University of Hong Kong usually issues a seasonal forecast of typhoon season in the Western Pacific, but did not do so in 2012 or 2013. An average typhoon season has 27 named storms and 17 typhoons. Typhoon seasons immediately following a La Niña year typically see higher levels of activity in the South China Sea, especially between months of May and July. Also, the jet stream tends to dip farther south than usual to the south of Japan, helping steer more tropical cyclones towards Japan and Korea.

Quiet in the Atlantic this weekend
There are no Atlantic threat areas to discuss today, and none of the reliable models for tropical cyclone formation is predicting development during the coming seven days. However, there are some indications that the atmosphere over the tropical Atlantic will become more conducive for tropical storm formation beginning around August 15. The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, may move into the Atlantic then, increasing tropical storm formation odds. At the same time, the computer models are indicating an increase in moisture over the tropical Atlantic, due to a series of tropical waves expected to push off of the coast of Africa. There will also be several eastward-moving Convectively-Coupled Kelvin Waves (CCKWs) traversing the Atlantic during that period. These atmospheric disturbances have a great deal of upward-moving air, which helps strengthen the updrafts of tropical disturbances. Formation of the Eastern Pacific's Hurricane Gil and Henriette were aided by CCKWs. These same CCKWs will cross into the Atlantic and increase the odds of tropical storm formation during the period August 15 - 20.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 1338. SLU:


God forbid, that's the kind of season we need to get rid of some impatient bloggers for good.

Maybe you do have a point. lol

But hopefully they would just leave and not kill themselves.
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Quoting 1322. SuperStorm093:
Guys need to stop saying it only takes one storm, yes that is VERY VERY True, but the odds this year we have a storm like Andrew is very low.
. Are you willing to take that to Las Vegas , and bet on it!
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1338. SLU
Quoting 1325. opal92nwf:

What the bloggers must have been doing that year:


God forbid, that's the kind of season we need to get rid of some impatient bloggers for good.

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I wish we had something like Utor (which by the way sounds scary) in the Atlantic to track because we would have better observations of it.I doubt we'll see storms rapidly intensify like that in the Atlantic this year.
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Quoting 1264. Grothar:
Utor is getting some white in him. Looks bad for the Philippines.


Member Since: July 30, 2012 Posts: 4 Comments: 614
Quoting 1326. Sfloridacat5:
I don't just have issues with Al Roker (who I actually like).

Just the other day a female Weather Channel met couldn't identify mammatus clouds.
She had to ask what they were and how they were formed.
How can you claim to be a "meteorologist" and not know what mammatus clouds are?

Now back to the weather at hand.


I just checked, there is no "legal" definition of a meteorologist. As a matter of fact, there seems to be a fairly active argument of that exact problem in their own weather world.

Can we finally define who a “Meteorologist” is?!
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Fairly similar storms, and around the same time of year.



Now I'm going to look up what type of steering was present at the time
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1333. JRRP
Link
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5838
SAL seems to be clearing the ITCZ now. Hmmmmm...

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/salmain.php ?prod=splitEW
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Good morning! Checking in from Anchorage, AK...it is cold and wet. I will try not to complain too much because it is going to be in the high 90's at home in MS. It is in the low 50's here and we are stuck in a circling area of precipitation that is just dumping large amounts of water on us. The positive side of that is the fire danger is going down. I am headed to the Blueberry Festival at Mt Alyeska this weekend...rain or no rain. Take care guys and thanks for all the updates on how the hurricane season is forming up. I may not be home this year for the season but it is scary knowing all of my stuff is there for it. Grothar...how about a protective bubble around MS? Think you could arrange that one? :-)
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Quoting 1310. interpreter:

It's all about the wind shear. Not favorable for storms this year. Sorry.
.
. Sorry very doubtful about your statement , I agree with the forecasters !
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FIM came in not strong at all last night I see.
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PAGASA finally upgrades Utor and that is way late from other agencies.



SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN NUMBER SIX
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING: TYPHOON “LABUYO”
ISSUED AT 11:00 PM, 10 AUGUST 2013


TROPICAL STORM “LABUYO” HAS INTENSIFIED INTO A TYPHOON AS IT CONTINUES TO THREATEN LUZON.
Location of eye/center: At 10:00 PM today, the center of Typhoon “LABUYO”
was estimated based on all available data at 470 km
East of Daet, Camarines Norte (14.4°N, 127.8°E).

Strength: Maximum winds of 120 kph near the center and
gustiness of 150 kph.

Movement: Forecast to move West Northwest at 19 kph.

Forecast Positions: Typhoon “LABUYO” is expected to be at 220 km
East of Baler, Aurora by tomorrow evening. By
Monday evening, it will be at 90 km West of Sinait,
Ilocos Sur and at 460 km Northwest of Laoag City
by Tuesday evening or outside the PAR

Public storm signal no 2 (Winds of 61-100 kph is expected in at least 24 hrs) :
Isabela,Aurora,Quirino, Polillo Is., CamarinesNorte, Camarines Sur and Catanduanes

Public storm signal no. 1(Winds of 45-60 kph is expected within the next 36 hours) :
Cagayan including Calayan and Babuyan Group of Islands, Ilocos ,Norte ,Apayao ,Abra , Kalinga, Ilocos Sur , Mountain Province, Ifugao, La Union, Benguet, Nueva Viscaya , Pangasinan, Tarlac , Nueva Ecija ,Zambales, Pampanga ,Bulacan, Bataan, Rizal, Quezon,Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Marinduque, Albay, Sorsogon, Burias and Ticao Islands and Metro Manila
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Quoting 1326. Sfloridacat5:
Iidon't just have issues with Al Roker (who I actually like).

Just the other day a female Weather Channel met couldn't identify mammatus clouds.
She had to ask what they were and how they were formed.
How can you claim to be a "meteorologist" and not know what mammatus clouds are?



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I don't just have issues with Al Roker (who I actually like).

Just the other day a female Weather Channel met couldn't identify mammatus clouds.
She had to ask what they were and how they were formed.
How can you claim to be a "meteorologist" and not know what mammatus clouds are?

Now back to the weather at hand.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6916

What the bloggers must have been doing that year:
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Quoting 1321. moonlightcowboy:


CT, just let it go. Some folks will argue with a sign post pointing both ways. ;)


There are times when we should be able to click "+" more then once :)

This is one of them.
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Quoting 1283. CybrTeddy:

Adblock is perfectly free for me..? It's a free app.


Color me confused. I don't have adblock, I'm not a paying member (yet), but I don't see all distracting ads others have referenced. There's one at the top, and 2 on the right. None move, and none are visible when I'm on the blog. Some sites are crazy with ads moving about, popping up, changing size, blocking content, etc. But I haven't seen that on this site. Am I just lucky somehow?
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Guys need to stop saying it only takes one storm, yes that is VERY VERY True, but the odds this year we have a storm like Andrew is very low.
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Quoting 1314. CybrTeddy:


Whatever you say I guess, despite that it's not.


CT, just let it go. Some folks will argue with a sign post pointing both ways. ;)
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
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Quoting 1301. MrNatural:


It's a shame you would talk about someone without knowing the facts. Al Roker has taken at least one meteorology course. How do I know...I shared the class with him. The class was Meteorology 101 with Dr. Eugene Chermack during the Fall of 1974 at the State University of New York at Oswego.


I correct myself. He's taken at least 1 meteorology course.
He and some of the other T.V. mets have trouble knowing the difference between a tornado and a funnel cloud.
And I remember during Hurricane Sandy, he seemed to know very little about hurricanes.
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very squally weather here in Saint Lucia today. by the looks of things the CPL cricket match slated for this evening is a wash out.
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Ya ever fall asleep while watching the food network channel? I think I just did...Maybe yes, Maybe no
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Quoting 1296. LAsurvivor:


I know it's boring for this blog, but I love the "despicable lull." My area has been hit by Katrina, Rita, Gustav, Ike, Lee and Isaac. We haven't gone more than 2 years without a serious hurricane and/or flooding since 2005. We are hurricaned out! Wouldn't be surprised to see Isaac retired because of the extensive damage from flooding in Southeast Louisiana, especially in Lower Livingston, St. John, Jefferson, and Plaquemines Parish. Almost a billion dollars damage there alone.

Yeah, that's probably why Mississippi westward will not get hurricanes this year because while place like Florida sat high and dry for the most part post 2005, areas west of there dealt with Humberto, Edouard, Dolly, Erin, Gustav, Ike, Lee, Isaac, Hermine, and Ida...
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new wave introduce in the 12hrs surface charts. The wave looks rather impressive and could the start of the real cape verde season. by the looks of that it could well be an invest the next 48 hrs.
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Quoting 1310. interpreter:

It's all about the wind shear. Not favorable for storms this year. Sorry.


Whatever you say I guess, despite that it's not.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24042
Quoting 1310. interpreter:

It's all about the wind shear. Not favorable for storms this year. Sorry.

Cyber is right on this..sorry but I respectfully disagree.
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Quoting 1310. interpreter:

It's all about the wind shear. Not favorable for storms this year. Sorry.


Ummmmm.....no :

http://abclocal.go.com/ktrk/feature?section=weath e r/hurricane&id=8760068
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Quoting 1301. MrNatural:


It's a shame you would talk about someone without knowing the facts. Al Roker has taken at least one meteorology course. How do I know...I shared the class with him. The class was Meteorology 101 with Dr. Eugene Chermack during the Fall of 1974 at the State University of New York at Oswego.
I talk about many without knowing the facts...I am older , and I really don't give a **** .OK
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Quoting 1288. CybrTeddy:

"A lot" as in one person. I'd hate to self glorify myself but refer to my post 1253 as to why this season will very likely be well above average (and already is).

It's all about the wind shear. Not favorable for storms this year. Sorry.
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Quoting 1306. PalmBeachWeather:
I kinda remember a cartoon guy Mr. Natural... A long beard that took long steps....Am I right?


Just like my avatar.
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Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
up to yellow and orange!!
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Quoting 1301. MrNatural:


It's a shame you would talk about someone without knowing the facts. Al Roker has taken at least one meteorology course. How do I know...I shared the class with him. The class was Meteorology 101 with Dr. Eugene Chermack during the Fall of 1974 at the State University of New York at Oswego.
I kinda remember a cartoon guy Mr. Natural... A long beard that took long steps....Am I right?
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5864
Quoting 1203. CybrTeddy:

1) Great Hurricane of 1780.
2) Galveston Hurricane of 1900.
3) Hurricane Mitch.
4) Hurricane Katrina.
5) 1935 Labor Day hurricane.


Man, those were all pretty bad. If I were a person caught in the moment of one of those storms, I would probably say the Labor Day cane would be the most terrifying. Simply because some of those keys are hardly a mile wide. The wind and surf knocked a locomotive off its tracks...that's some serious stuff right there. I've been to the memorial down in Islamorada (mile marker 82). 892 mbar!!!

"Great Hurricane" on Labor Day, September 2, 1935. Islamorada sustained winds of 200 miles per hour (322 kph) and a barometer reading of 26.36 inches (66.95 cm) for many hours on that fateful holiday





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yellow time!!
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Quoting 1287. Skyepony:


I've lived in SC..somehow this didn't all surprise me..

Doesn't look bad yet except for maybe Lake Lure.


The Corps of Engineers has done a good job recently of coordinating releases on the Savannah River chain. A couple of weeks ago they were able to minimize what could have been a bad situation on the river below Augusta, with the flood stage approaching the major level. The river has gone down some, but both it and the Ogeechee River are still running high. I'm a little concerned with these precip forecasts for the next week of 5+ inches for the drainage areas of both these rivers.
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hook ☒
line ☒
sinker ☒
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Quoting 1251. Sfloridacat5:


Al Roker has his own show (Wake Up With Al) on TWC, along with being the Today's show main weather man.

He isn't a meteorologist. I dought he's taken 1 college level meteorology course.

Not hating on him, but he doesn't know much about weather and climate. If you closely listen to his discussion of the weather it's obvious.


It's a shame you would talk about someone without knowing the facts. Al Roker has taken at least one meteorology course. How do I know...I shared the class with him. The class was Meteorology 101 with Dr. Eugene Chermack during the Fall of 1974 at the State University of New York at Oswego.
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Quoting 1296. LAsurvivor:


I know it's boring for this blog, but I love the "despicable lull." My area has been hit by Katrina, Rita, Gustav, Ike, Lee and Isaac. We haven't gone more than 2 years without a serious hurricane and/or flooding since 2005. We are hurricaned out! Wouldn't be surprised to see Isaac retired because of the extensive damage from flooding in Southeast Louisiana, especially in Lower Livingston, St. John, Jefferson, and Plaquemines Parish. Almost a billion dollars damage there alone.
Southern LA is really vunerable too, almost 1/2 of its population lives below sea level, and the marshes around it are eroding rapidly, allowing higher surge and waves directly on the levees.
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Dust not as dense




Mid-level moisture increasing along the Monsoonal Trough and ITCZ with convection firing

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Heat index already 104 in Stuart,FL. Gonna be a hot one.
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Quoting 1291. opal92nwf:

Thanks for the help Naga, though could you explain about what your sending and how it works?


You have WU mail!
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Quoting 1260. opal92nwf:
Here's something very interesting to pass the time in this despicable lull:

TWC: A Blizzard Inside Every Hurricane


I know it's boring for this blog, but I love the "despicable lull." My area has been hit by Katrina, Rita, Gustav, Ike, Lee and Isaac. We haven't gone more than 2 years without a serious hurricane and/or flooding since 2005. We are hurricaned out! Wouldn't be surprised to see Isaac retired because of the extensive damage from flooding in Southeast Louisiana, especially in Lower Livingston, St. John, Jefferson, and Plaquemines Parish. Almost a billion dollars damage there alone.
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1295. Skyepony (Mod)
Historic school recovers from tornado in Hattisburg, MS.


My friends that had their house totaled in that tornado moved to a town along to the gulf coast to be with their kids & such..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 164 Comments: 37864
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 18 Comments: 35532
Socalmargie no they are saying the opposite.
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A few GFS EnKF Ensemble members develop in GOM on day 7.

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Quoting 1273. Naga5000:


I just used my "send a free gift account" option to opal92nwf. Never used this feature before so let's see if it works. :)

Thanks for the help Naga, though could you explain about what your sending and how it works?
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Quoting 1276. nrtiwlnvragn:


Images missed the 06Z update

11W UTOR 130810 1200 14.0N 128.2E WPAC 90 956
11W UTOR 130810 1200 14.0N 128.2E WPAC 90 956
11W UTOR 130810 0600 13.8N 129.2E WPAC 70 970
11W UTOR 130810 0600 13.8N 129.2E WPAC 70 970
11W UTOR 130810 0600 13.8N 129.2E WPAC 70 970
11W UTOR 130810 0000 13.6N 130.5E WPAC 55 982
11W UTOR 130810 0000 13.6N 130.5E WPAC 55 982
11W UTOR 130809 1800 13.5N 131.7E WPAC 45 989
11W UTOR 130809 1200 13.5N 132.7E WPAC 35 996
11W UTOR 130809 0600 13.5N 133.7E WPAC 25 1004
11W UTOR 130809 0000 13.3N 134.8E WPAC 25 1004
11W UTOR 130808 1800 12.7N 135.8E WPAC 25 1004
11W UTOR 130808 1200 12.3N 136.5E WPAC 20 1005
11W UTOR 130808 0600 12.1N 137.2E WPAC 15 1010


Still impressive for a 12 hour timeframe.


Ah, that makes a bit more sense then! I was literally blown away when I saw that it dropped 26mb in such a short time LOL But as you said, even with the extra time added in, still impressive! It'll be interesting to see how much more it can decrease, as it still has about a day or so over water!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.