An Active Atlantic Hurricane Season Still Predicted by NOAA, CSU, and TSR

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:07 PM GMT on August 09, 2013

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As we stand on the cusp of the peak part of hurricane season, all of the major groups that perform long-range seasonal hurricane forecasts are still calling for an active 2013 Atlantic hurricane season. NOAA forecasts an above-normal and possibly very active Atlantic hurricane season in 2013, in their August 8 outlook. They give a 70% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of an near-normal season, and 5% chance of a below-normal season. They predict a 70% chance that there will be 13 - 19 named storms, 6 - 9 hurricanes, and 3 - 5 major hurricanes, with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 120% - 190% of the median. If we take the midpoint of these numbers, NOAA is calling for 16 named storms, 7.5 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 155% of normal. This is well above the 1981 - 2010 average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Hurricane seasons during the active hurricane period 1995 - 2012 have averaged 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 151% of the median.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Dorian on July 25, 2013, when the storm reached peak intensity--sustained winds of 60 mph. Formation of early-season tropical storms like Chantal and Dorian in June and July in the deep tropics is usually a harbinger of an active Atlantic hurricane season. Image credit: NASA.

NOAA cites five main reasons to expect an active remainder of hurricane season:

1) Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are above average in the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes, from the coast of Africa to the Caribbean. As of August 9, SST were 0.4°C (0.8°F) above average.
2) Trade winds are weaker than average across the MDR, which has caused the African Monsoon to grow wetter and stronger, the amount of spin over the MDR to increase, and the amount of vertical wind shear to decrease.
3) No El Niño event is present or expected this fall.
4) There have been two early-season tropical storms in the deep tropics (Tropical Storms Chantal and Dorian), which is generally a harbinger of an above-normal season.
5) We are in an active hurricane period that began in 1995.

Colorado State predicts a much above-average hurricane season
A much above-average Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2013, according to the seasonal hurricane forecast issued August 2 by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). The CSU team is calling for 18 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 142. The forecast calls for an above-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (40% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (40% chance, 30% chance is average). The risk of a major hurricane in the Caribbean is also above average, at 53% (42% is average.)

Analogue years
The CSU team picked five previous years when atmospheric and oceanic conditions were similar to what we are seeing this year: cool neutral ENSO conditions and slightly above-average tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures. Those five years were 2008, a very active year with 16 named storms and 4 major hurricanes--Gustav, Ike, Paloma, and Omar; 2007, an active year with 15 named storms and two Category 5 storms--Dean and Felix; 1996, an above average year with 13 named storms and 6 major hurricanes--Edouard, Hortense, Fran, Bertha, Isidore, and Lili; 1966, an average year with 11 named storms and 3 major hurricanes--Inez, Alma, and Faith; and 1952, a below average year with 7 named storms and 3 major hurricanes. The average activity during these five analogue years was 12.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes, and 3.8 major hurricanes.

TSR predicts an above-average hurricane season: 14.8 named storms
The August 6 forecast for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season made by British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) calls for an active season with 14.8 named storms, 6.9 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 121. The long-term averages for the past 63 years are 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an ACE of 103. TSR rates their skill level as good for these August forecasts--47% - 59% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. TSR predicts a 58% chance that U.S. land falling activity will be above average, a 26% chance it will be near average, and a 16% chance it will be below average. They project that 4 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.8 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2012 climatology are 3.1 named storms and 1.4 hurricanes. They rate their skill at making these August forecasts for U.S. landfalls just 9% - 18% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 1.4 named storms, 0.6 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

TSR's two predictors for their statistical model are the forecast July - September trade wind speed over the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic, and the forecast August - September 2013 sea surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic. Their model is calling for warmer than average SSTs and near average trade winds during these periods, and both of these factors should act to increase hurricane and tropical storm activity.


Figure 2. Comparison of the percent improvement over climatology for May and August seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 1999-2009 (May) and 1998-2009 (August), using the Mean Squared Error. Image credit: Verification of 12 years of NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts, National Hurricane Center.


Figure 3. Comparison of the percent improvement in mean square error over climatology for seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 2003-2012, using the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS). The figure shows the results using two different climatologies: a fixed 50-year (1950 - 1999) climatology, and a 2003 - 2012 climatology. Skill is poor for forecasts issued in December and April, moderate for June forecasts, and good for August forecasts. Image credit: Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.

FSU predicts an above-average hurricane season: 15 named storms
The Florida State University (FSU) Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) issued their fifth annual Atlantic hurricane season forecast on May 30, calling for a 70% probability of 12 - 17 named storms and 5 - 10 hurricanes. The mid-point forecast is for 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of 135. The scientists use a numerical atmospheric model developed at COAPS to understand seasonal predictability of hurricane activity. The model is one of only a handful of numerical models in the world being used to study seasonal hurricane activity and is different from the statistical methods used by other seasonal hurricane forecasters such as Colorado State, TSR, and PSU (NOAA uses a hybrid statistical-dynamical model technique.) The FSU forecast has been one of the best ones over the past four years:

2009 prediction: 8 named storms, 4 hurricanes. Actual: 9 named storms, 3 hurricanes
2010 prediction: 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 12 hurricanes
2011 prediction: 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 7 hurricanes
2012 prediction: 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 10 hurricanes

Penn State predicts an above-average hurricane season: 16 named storms
A statistical model by Penn State's Michael Mann and alumnus Michael Kozar is calling for an active Atlantic hurricane season with 16 named storms, plus or minus 4 storms. Their prediction was made using statistics of how past hurricane seasons have behaved in response to sea surface temperatures (SSTs), the El Niño/La Niña oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and other factors. The statistic model assumes that in 2013 the May 0.87°C above average temperatures in the MDR will persist throughout hurricane season, the El Niño phase will be neutral to slightly warm, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will be near average.

The PSU team has been making Atlantic hurricane season forecasts since 2007, and these predictions have done pretty well, except for in 2012, when an expected El Niño did not materialize:

2007 prediction: 15 named storms, Actual: 15
2009 prediction: 12.5, named storms, Actual: 9
2010 prediction: 23 named storms, Actual: 19
2011 prediction: 16 named storms, Actual: 19
2012 prediction: 10.5 named storms, Actual: 19

UK Met Office predicts a slightly above-average hurricane season: 14 named storms
The UKMET office forecast for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, issued May 13, calls for slightly above normal activity, with 14 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and an ACE index of 130. In contrast to the statistical models relied upon by CSU, TSR, and NOAA, the UKMET model is done strictly using two dynamical global seasonal prediction systems: the Met Office GloSea5 system and ECMWF system 4. In 2012, the Met Office forecast was for 10 tropical storms and an ACE index of 90. The actual numbers were 19 named storms and an ACE index of 123.


Figure 4. Total 2013 Atlantic hurricane season activity as predicted by twelve different groups.

NOAA predicts a below-average Eastern Pacific hurricane season
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 23, calls for a below-average season, with 11 - 16 named storms, 5 - 8 hurricanes, 1 - 4 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 60% - 105% of the median. The mid-point of these ranges gives us a forecast for 13.5 named storms, 6.5 hurricanes, and 2.5 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 82% of average. The 1981 - 2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.

NOAA predicts a below-average Central Pacific hurricane season
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Central Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 22, calls for a below-average season, with 1 - 3 tropical cyclones. An average season has 4 - 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes. Hawaii is the primary land area affected by Central Pacific tropical cyclones.

West Pacific typhoon season forecast not available this year
Dr. Johnny Chan of the City University of Hong Kong usually issues a seasonal forecast of typhoon season in the Western Pacific, but did not do so in 2012 or 2013. An average typhoon season has 27 named storms and 17 typhoons. Typhoon seasons immediately following a La Niña year typically see higher levels of activity in the South China Sea, especially between months of May and July. Also, the jet stream tends to dip farther south than usual to the south of Japan, helping steer more tropical cyclones towards Japan and Korea.

Quiet in the Atlantic this weekend
There are no Atlantic threat areas to discuss today, and none of the reliable models for tropical cyclone formation is predicting development during the coming seven days. However, there are some indications that the atmosphere over the tropical Atlantic will become more conducive for tropical storm formation beginning around August 15. The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, may move into the Atlantic then, increasing tropical storm formation odds. At the same time, the computer models are indicating an increase in moisture over the tropical Atlantic, due to a series of tropical waves expected to push off of the coast of Africa. There will also be several eastward-moving Convectively-Coupled Kelvin Waves (CCKWs) traversing the Atlantic during that period. These atmospheric disturbances have a great deal of upward-moving air, which helps strengthen the updrafts of tropical disturbances. Formation of the Eastern Pacific's Hurricane Gil and Henriette were aided by CCKWs. These same CCKWs will cross into the Atlantic and increase the odds of tropical storm formation during the period August 15 - 20.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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1490. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56140
Quoting 1484. nrtiwlnvragn:



The One-Way Evacuation Routes in Florida

Florida has One-Way Evacuation plans prepared for the following highways.
I-10 westbound from Jacksonville
I-75 from Tampa to Wildwood
SR 528 (the Beachline Expressway) westbound from Brevard County
Florida's Turnpike northbound from Lantana (Palm Beach County)
I-4 eastbound from Tampa
I-75 (Alligator Alley) eastbound from Fort Myers
I-75 (Alligator Alley) westbound from Fort Lauderdale


Link
If I'm not mistaken during the evacuation of Hurricane Charley the I-275 in Tampa and the Howard Frankland bridge did a contraflow.
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1488. LargoFl
its funny, ive been here almost 30 years now..and not once til last year did I think about how strong my garage door was...if you think about it..its a gaping hole in your house should it blow in..and there goes your roof etc...1 yr ago I changed it over to one of those real strong hurricane garage doors..the one with the steel beams running across it..my wife was worried about coast..but one tree flying across the street at 125 mph or so and poof..goes the door..so I went and had it installed..............just one more thing to think about huh.
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Quoting 1449. Bluestorm5:
I'm on my phone so can't quote anyone. I would leave for Category 4 or higher if I live on coast. If I was in low lying area, I would leave for Category 2 or higher. I'm not afraid of winds, but surge is reason enough. I wish people on news would focus more on surge.
Yep along the Gulf Coast the storm surge is the biggest problem due in part to the shallow depth of the Continental Shelf and lower elevation of the coastal areas where marshes and swamp lands can be found. As you go up the east coast the Continental Shelf drops off while surge is still a problem especially in NYC it is the winds from these major hurricanes that are blamed for most of the damage up there as the wind fields expand due to transitioning from a tropical to extra-tropical cyclone.
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new TWO no change
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Evacuation in south Florida is pretty much useless...I have rode out every hurricane in the last 30 years....I will take my chances in my home over taking my chances on I-95 with the other idiots...
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Quoting 1480. tropicalnewbee:


The last few times I do not remember them allowing that to happen, but I do think if we are under a serious threat like a cat3 or higher with imminent landfall, they would allow it to get people out of the danger zone as fast as possible. I know they sometimes do it for construction on our major roadways so I don't see why they would not do it for a natural disaster threat.



The One-Way Evacuation Routes in Florida

Florida has One-Way Evacuation plans prepared for the following highways.
I-10 westbound from Jacksonville
I-75 from Tampa to Wildwood
SR 528 (the Beachline Expressway) westbound from Brevard County
Florida's Turnpike northbound from Lantana (Palm Beach County)
I-4 eastbound from Tampa
I-75 (Alligator Alley) eastbound from Fort Myers
I-75 (Alligator Alley) westbound from Fort Lauderdale


Link
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1483. 62901IL
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 10 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR THE EASTERN COAST OF MEXICO. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY... SHOULD
BE SLOW TO OCCUR BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND OVER EASTERN MEXICO
ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?COD E=ETWO

FORECASTER BEVEN
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This one will be another debby most models who have this west are wrong!! This going to be caught by the good trough!
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1481. LargoFl
One thing more on evacs...if you are in a flood zone or very near a coastline...think flooding and a 30 foot tidal surge.........if your not in danger from that..then wind and falling tree's and blowing items coming at your residence at over 100 mph or even higher.......hurricanes are dangerous alright..its sort of why..we here follow these storms days in advance if possible...so even WE..can get out early enough huh........yes its fun tracking them..but if in the line of danger..get out early enough to beat that mad crush of people so you are safe....I say im staying unless its a 4-5..but every storm is different..a strong cat3..is in itself..very dangerous.
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Quoting 1469. LAbonbon:


Do they do contraflow in FL?


The last few times I do not remember them allowing that to happen, but I do think if we are under a serious threat like a cat3 or higher with imminent landfall, they would allow it to get people out of the danger zone as fast as possible. I know they sometimes do it for construction on our major roadways so I don't see why they would not do it for a natural disaster threat.

Edit, I have not tried to evacuate yet for any storm. I think a cat4 or above would be my tipping point to GTFOD.
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1479. 62901IL
Quoting 1475. spathy:
What about you?

Will not evacuate unless:
A) Category 1 and above
B) Category 2 and above
C) Category 3 and above
D) Category 4 and above
E) Category 5


Hard to say.
A 4 and I am outa here.
A 3 I am nervous about flimsy neighbors roofs landing on me.
So strong 2 or 3.

Let's see. Since I live in southern IL, I would only be affected by hurricane remnants. But if I lived on the coast, it'd be like this:
Category 1: Maybe.
Category 2: I will, most likely.
Category 3: I'm outta here!
Category 4: I'm going and not looking back.
Category 5: Goodbye, coastal town!
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Quoting 1467. LargoFl:
I am with you on that gro..unless its a 4-5 im staying..roads will be murder with evacs...very few roads out of here and all it takes is one accident and your trapped on a roadway in a hurricane.
Same here. Above 3 and Im gone.
Member Since: August 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2109

This is what will happen!! Storm will form in nw carib in 90 hrs and move nw and then ne!!! Big weakness in florida!!
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There is increasing low level vorticity associated with the SW Gulf of Mexico system, which has convection associated with it, but it remains disorganized currently and wind shear is expected to continue throughout the day and night tonight before the upper level low moves overhead and lowers the wind shear SSTs are high, but so is wind shear.
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AEWs are becoming more and more vigorous pattern is about to flip next week when the CCKWs enter our basin in response to that the NAVGEM and the FIM are hinting at possible storm in the Western Caribbean and Gulf.



As it tranverse the EPAC and enters the Atlantic basin. This will shift to the East Atlantic next weekend to help kick start the peak of hurricane season. I still Believe we could see multiple system at once since these wave are just coming off Africa one by one. I'm glad the tropical prediction agencies like CSU stick to their guns and didn't overreact to the stable dry air causing by the suppressing High that is beginning moving over the Azores and bridging with heights over the Canadian maritime. Leading to a possible dangerous season.

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Quoting 1468. Camille33:

No!!! Watch sw gulf may be a storm will form there and move ne


Not really

AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE...HAS FORMED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR BEFORE THE SYSTEM
MOVES INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
Member Since: July 27, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 501
Quoting 1468. Camille33:

No!!! Watch sw gulf may be a storm will form there and move ne


That is what you want to happen!!! But according to guys with MORE knowledge, LEVI, it will not move it that direction!!!
Member Since: July 31, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 925
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Quoting 1461. tropicalnewbee:


Because of the problems caused by Charley, Francis, and Jeanne, they built a new causeway to help alleviate the congestion that was caused by evacuation routes being clogged up. It has not been tested yet.


Do they do contraflow in FL?
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Quoting 1465. SuperStorm093:
Exactly SW, not the central Gulf, meaning it will be VERY weak coming off land, get to maybe 1009-1012 MB and hit land again in Mexico!!! I can do exclamation points also!!

No!!! Watch sw gulf may be a storm will form there and move ne
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1467. LargoFl
Quoting 1430. Grothar:
As has been written many times before, it is nearly impossible to properly evacuate in most places in Florida. The low lying coastal areas should be evacuated, of course. But it would take days to properly evacuate where the currently have the lines drawn. We got stuck once trying to leave and I most likely would not do it again, unless it was a 4 or 5. I remember during Adrew, it took 10 hours to get from Miami to Orlando and once there, there were no rooms to stay. Luckily the storm did not move more northerly or there would have been thousands stranded in their cars. Anyone remember Rita?
I am with you on that gro..unless its a 4-5 im staying..roads will be murder with evacs...very few roads out of here and all it takes is one accident and your trapped on a roadway in a hurricane.
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Quoting 1452. PalmBeachWeather:
Oh hell.I fell asleep..Is it still Saturday?



All day!
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Quoting 1462. Camille33:
watch sw gulf!!
Exactly SW, not the central Gulf, meaning it will be VERY weak coming off land, get to maybe 1009-1012 MB and hit land again in Mexico!!! I can do exclamation points also!!
Member Since: July 31, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 925
According to Levi the chances of the W Caribbean storm going to FL are very low.
Member Since: September 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1149
Quoting 1462. Camille33:
watch sw gulf!!


And east Atlantic!
Member Since: July 27, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 501
watch sw gulf!!
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Quoting 1430. Grothar:
As has been written many times before, it is nearly impossible to properly evacuate in most places in Florida. The low lying coastal areas should be evacuated, of course. But it would take days to properly evacuate where the currently have the lines drawn. We got stuck once trying to leave and I most likely would not do it again, unless it was a 4 or 5. I remember during Adrew, it took 10 hours to get from Miami to Orlando and once there, there were no rooms to stay. Luckily the storm did not move more northerly or there would have been thousands stranded in their cars. Anyone remember Rita?


Because of the problems caused by Charley, Francis, and Jeanne, they built a new causeway to help alleviate the congestion that was caused by evacuation routes being clogged up. It has not been tested yet.
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Quoting 1457. LAbonbon:


Your previous post was a model graphic for the Atlantic in 7 days. This is a typhoon in the W. Pacific...hence the confusion
Exactly, that guy makes no sense.
Member Since: July 31, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 925
Quoting 1457. LAbonbon:


Your previous post was a model graphic for the Atlantic in 7 days. This is a typhoon in the W. Pacific...hence the confusion
Looked at the image first and thought it was Wilma until I looked up at the top and saw the description.
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Quoting 1452. PalmBeachWeather:
Oh hell.I fell asleep..Is it still Saturday?
Yes and a nice Saturday at that. Reminds me of the nice weather before Andrew arrived(sinking air》.
Member Since: August 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2109
Quoting 1454. Camille33:

do you see this tropical storm here!


Your previous post was a model graphic for the Atlantic in 7 days. This is a typhoon in the W. Pacific...hence the confusion
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Quoting 1448. Camille33:
wow!!
The NAVGEM is showing a 1005 mb. low in the BOC what in the world? :P...Here is some food for thought lets say the NHC and meteorological offices in charge of running these models took them away or shut them down for one week, then we would go back to the good old days of tracking based on current conditions. Maybe there would be less fighting over the models in here. Of course that will never happen, but just putting things into perspective.
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Quoting 1454. Camille33:

do you see this tropical storm here!


That is not the pic you posted, and steering patterns were different with that storm man. Not every storm that forms will be a hurricane man. I havent seen you comment once just saying it will be a TS. Everything is a WOW!! Cat 4 landfall, prepare for Wilma
Member Since: July 31, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 925
Quoting 1451. SuperStorm093:


what is wow about that, its going to head west and hit mexico as a low grade TS.

do you see this tropical storm here!
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Quoting 1452. PalmBeachWeather:
Oh hell.I fell asleep..Is it still Saturday?


Yep
Member Since: July 27, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 501
Oh hell.I fell asleep..Is it still Saturday?
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Quoting 1448. Camille33:
wow!!


what is wow about that, its going to head west and hit mexico as a low grade TS.
Member Since: July 31, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 925
Quoting 1446. 62901IL:

I was talking to unknowncomic.
Me too, I just quoted you lol.
Member Since: July 31, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 925
I'm on my phone so can't quote anyone. I would leave for Category 4 or higher if I live on coast. If I was in low lying area, I would leave for Category 2 or higher. I'm not afraid of winds, but surge is reason enough. I wish people on news would focus more on surge.
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wow!!
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Quoting 1426. Astrometeor:


For choice E, what does "above" a Cat 5 hurricane mean? A cat 6?

"sigh" O rats. I remember when I was typing that, I was like "Oh, and I can't say 'and above' on the Cat 5 one" and turns out i did absent-mindedly... lol
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1446. 62901IL
Quoting 1445. SuperStorm093:

I was talking to unknowncomic.
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Quoting 1444. 62901IL:

Whoa. No need to yell.
Member Since: July 31, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 925
1444. 62901IL
Quoting 1442. unknowncomic:
WHATS THE WHINING ABOUT? I SEE THREE SYSTEMS AT ONCE. ONE GOING ASHORE BOC, ONE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND ONE OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA. ITS STARTING!!!

Whoa. No need to yell.
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1443. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting 1438. washingtonian115:
Anything after a two I'm gone.Don't want to put my family in anger even though I am fascinated by these storms.

Still can't beleive how Charely ripped that gas station apart and ripped the door of the back of a flat bed truck like it was nothing.
sometimes a hurricane can take everything so that nothing remains but the dirt and the water even the bodies are gone
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56140
WHATS THE WHINING ABOUT? I SEE THREE SYSTEMS AT ONCE. ONE GOING ASHORE BOC, ONE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND ONE OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA. ITS STARTING!!!
Member Since: August 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2109
Quoting 1399. Grothar:


Yes, they did, and I always had one written by Franklin. Have you ever read Pliny the Younger's account of the eruption of Pompeii.


You were there on vacation shortly before that went up weren't you Gro? :) On a different note I have actually been to Pompeii (1 of 36 different countries that I have been to) and it is a very somber scene. Something very memorable and sad (no volcanologists then for example). I am prepared for this season seeing as how Florida seems to be under the gun this year more than usual. Just hoping for something to track soon and that trough and high break enough for a recurve!
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Quoting 1413. opal92nwf:
Me and my family will not evacuate unless it's higher than a Category 3.

What about you?

Will not evacuate unless:
A) Category 1 and above
B) Category 2 and above
C) Category 3 and above
D) Category 4 and above
E) Category 5 and above



I have been through a bunch of storms, including Andrew, Wilma, Charley, Jeanne, Francis, Katrina (south Florida edition), as well as numerous tropical storms. The highest I would ride out again is probably a 3/4, I will never go through another Andrew, and Wilma was pretty terrifying as I was living in a small apartment in Pompano Beach at the time as spent the overnight hours watching my front windows flex with the wind gusts waiting for them to blow out. Now, being in Orlando with a solid concrete block house, hurricane windows, and a new roof, I would be okay with another Wilma/Charley experience.

Fun side note, I remember having just moved back to Orlando when Fay the rainmaker hit. I was living in a low income apartment complex and the flooding was so bad that the parking lots were under 3 feet of water. I was on the second floor, but had no way to leave.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

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JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron