An Active Atlantic Hurricane Season Still Predicted by NOAA, CSU, and TSR

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:07 PM GMT on August 09, 2013

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As we stand on the cusp of the peak part of hurricane season, all of the major groups that perform long-range seasonal hurricane forecasts are still calling for an active 2013 Atlantic hurricane season. NOAA forecasts an above-normal and possibly very active Atlantic hurricane season in 2013, in their August 8 outlook. They give a 70% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of an near-normal season, and 5% chance of a below-normal season. They predict a 70% chance that there will be 13 - 19 named storms, 6 - 9 hurricanes, and 3 - 5 major hurricanes, with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 120% - 190% of the median. If we take the midpoint of these numbers, NOAA is calling for 16 named storms, 7.5 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 155% of normal. This is well above the 1981 - 2010 average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Hurricane seasons during the active hurricane period 1995 - 2012 have averaged 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 151% of the median.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Dorian on July 25, 2013, when the storm reached peak intensity--sustained winds of 60 mph. Formation of early-season tropical storms like Chantal and Dorian in June and July in the deep tropics is usually a harbinger of an active Atlantic hurricane season. Image credit: NASA.

NOAA cites five main reasons to expect an active remainder of hurricane season:

1) Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are above average in the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes, from the coast of Africa to the Caribbean. As of August 9, SST were 0.4°C (0.8°F) above average.
2) Trade winds are weaker than average across the MDR, which has caused the African Monsoon to grow wetter and stronger, the amount of spin over the MDR to increase, and the amount of vertical wind shear to decrease.
3) No El Niño event is present or expected this fall.
4) There have been two early-season tropical storms in the deep tropics (Tropical Storms Chantal and Dorian), which is generally a harbinger of an above-normal season.
5) We are in an active hurricane period that began in 1995.

Colorado State predicts a much above-average hurricane season
A much above-average Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2013, according to the seasonal hurricane forecast issued August 2 by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). The CSU team is calling for 18 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 142. The forecast calls for an above-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (40% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (40% chance, 30% chance is average). The risk of a major hurricane in the Caribbean is also above average, at 53% (42% is average.)

Analogue years
The CSU team picked five previous years when atmospheric and oceanic conditions were similar to what we are seeing this year: cool neutral ENSO conditions and slightly above-average tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures. Those five years were 2008, a very active year with 16 named storms and 4 major hurricanes--Gustav, Ike, Paloma, and Omar; 2007, an active year with 15 named storms and two Category 5 storms--Dean and Felix; 1996, an above average year with 13 named storms and 6 major hurricanes--Edouard, Hortense, Fran, Bertha, Isidore, and Lili; 1966, an average year with 11 named storms and 3 major hurricanes--Inez, Alma, and Faith; and 1952, a below average year with 7 named storms and 3 major hurricanes. The average activity during these five analogue years was 12.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes, and 3.8 major hurricanes.

TSR predicts an above-average hurricane season: 14.8 named storms
The August 6 forecast for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season made by British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) calls for an active season with 14.8 named storms, 6.9 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 121. The long-term averages for the past 63 years are 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an ACE of 103. TSR rates their skill level as good for these August forecasts--47% - 59% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. TSR predicts a 58% chance that U.S. land falling activity will be above average, a 26% chance it will be near average, and a 16% chance it will be below average. They project that 4 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.8 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2012 climatology are 3.1 named storms and 1.4 hurricanes. They rate their skill at making these August forecasts for U.S. landfalls just 9% - 18% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 1.4 named storms, 0.6 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

TSR's two predictors for their statistical model are the forecast July - September trade wind speed over the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic, and the forecast August - September 2013 sea surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic. Their model is calling for warmer than average SSTs and near average trade winds during these periods, and both of these factors should act to increase hurricane and tropical storm activity.


Figure 2. Comparison of the percent improvement over climatology for May and August seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 1999-2009 (May) and 1998-2009 (August), using the Mean Squared Error. Image credit: Verification of 12 years of NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts, National Hurricane Center.


Figure 3. Comparison of the percent improvement in mean square error over climatology for seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 2003-2012, using the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS). The figure shows the results using two different climatologies: a fixed 50-year (1950 - 1999) climatology, and a 2003 - 2012 climatology. Skill is poor for forecasts issued in December and April, moderate for June forecasts, and good for August forecasts. Image credit: Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.

FSU predicts an above-average hurricane season: 15 named storms
The Florida State University (FSU) Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) issued their fifth annual Atlantic hurricane season forecast on May 30, calling for a 70% probability of 12 - 17 named storms and 5 - 10 hurricanes. The mid-point forecast is for 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of 135. The scientists use a numerical atmospheric model developed at COAPS to understand seasonal predictability of hurricane activity. The model is one of only a handful of numerical models in the world being used to study seasonal hurricane activity and is different from the statistical methods used by other seasonal hurricane forecasters such as Colorado State, TSR, and PSU (NOAA uses a hybrid statistical-dynamical model technique.) The FSU forecast has been one of the best ones over the past four years:

2009 prediction: 8 named storms, 4 hurricanes. Actual: 9 named storms, 3 hurricanes
2010 prediction: 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 12 hurricanes
2011 prediction: 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 7 hurricanes
2012 prediction: 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 10 hurricanes

Penn State predicts an above-average hurricane season: 16 named storms
A statistical model by Penn State's Michael Mann and alumnus Michael Kozar is calling for an active Atlantic hurricane season with 16 named storms, plus or minus 4 storms. Their prediction was made using statistics of how past hurricane seasons have behaved in response to sea surface temperatures (SSTs), the El Niño/La Niña oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and other factors. The statistic model assumes that in 2013 the May 0.87°C above average temperatures in the MDR will persist throughout hurricane season, the El Niño phase will be neutral to slightly warm, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will be near average.

The PSU team has been making Atlantic hurricane season forecasts since 2007, and these predictions have done pretty well, except for in 2012, when an expected El Niño did not materialize:

2007 prediction: 15 named storms, Actual: 15
2009 prediction: 12.5, named storms, Actual: 9
2010 prediction: 23 named storms, Actual: 19
2011 prediction: 16 named storms, Actual: 19
2012 prediction: 10.5 named storms, Actual: 19

UK Met Office predicts a slightly above-average hurricane season: 14 named storms
The UKMET office forecast for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, issued May 13, calls for slightly above normal activity, with 14 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and an ACE index of 130. In contrast to the statistical models relied upon by CSU, TSR, and NOAA, the UKMET model is done strictly using two dynamical global seasonal prediction systems: the Met Office GloSea5 system and ECMWF system 4. In 2012, the Met Office forecast was for 10 tropical storms and an ACE index of 90. The actual numbers were 19 named storms and an ACE index of 123.


Figure 4. Total 2013 Atlantic hurricane season activity as predicted by twelve different groups.

NOAA predicts a below-average Eastern Pacific hurricane season
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 23, calls for a below-average season, with 11 - 16 named storms, 5 - 8 hurricanes, 1 - 4 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 60% - 105% of the median. The mid-point of these ranges gives us a forecast for 13.5 named storms, 6.5 hurricanes, and 2.5 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 82% of average. The 1981 - 2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.

NOAA predicts a below-average Central Pacific hurricane season
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Central Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 22, calls for a below-average season, with 1 - 3 tropical cyclones. An average season has 4 - 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes. Hawaii is the primary land area affected by Central Pacific tropical cyclones.

West Pacific typhoon season forecast not available this year
Dr. Johnny Chan of the City University of Hong Kong usually issues a seasonal forecast of typhoon season in the Western Pacific, but did not do so in 2012 or 2013. An average typhoon season has 27 named storms and 17 typhoons. Typhoon seasons immediately following a La Niña year typically see higher levels of activity in the South China Sea, especially between months of May and July. Also, the jet stream tends to dip farther south than usual to the south of Japan, helping steer more tropical cyclones towards Japan and Korea.

Quiet in the Atlantic this weekend
There are no Atlantic threat areas to discuss today, and none of the reliable models for tropical cyclone formation is predicting development during the coming seven days. However, there are some indications that the atmosphere over the tropical Atlantic will become more conducive for tropical storm formation beginning around August 15. The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, may move into the Atlantic then, increasing tropical storm formation odds. At the same time, the computer models are indicating an increase in moisture over the tropical Atlantic, due to a series of tropical waves expected to push off of the coast of Africa. There will also be several eastward-moving Convectively-Coupled Kelvin Waves (CCKWs) traversing the Atlantic during that period. These atmospheric disturbances have a great deal of upward-moving air, which helps strengthen the updrafts of tropical disturbances. Formation of the Eastern Pacific's Hurricane Gil and Henriette were aided by CCKWs. These same CCKWs will cross into the Atlantic and increase the odds of tropical storm formation during the period August 15 - 20.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 1536. mitchelace5:


Are you being for real or is that sarcasm?
For real
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Quoting 1533. spathy:






Daily traffic safety I guess. Wasnt evacuations and likely accident blockage.
Many times I have detoured to "Card Sound Rd" due to an accident ahead.......No more.No way to turn around
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Quoting 1505. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Drier air pushing into FL today, will have to rely on the day time heating for afternoon thunderstorms. ULL moving towards Texas could enhance their rainfall.



Well, upper level dry air is moving, however, low level moisture is still quite deep. In fact, the PW is expected to remain around 1.8 to 1.9 which is almost all surface based.

Drier air aloft and a cap moving in will still reduce coverage, but steep lapse rates should allow for still some powerful thunderstorms late in the day on the sea breeze collision. Also, level moisture is very efficient at pooling and increasing locally along sea breeze boundaries due to warm water temps, so that too will help.
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Quoting 1505. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Drier air pushing into FL today, will have to rely on the day time heating for afternoon thunderstorms. ULL moving towards Texas could enhance their rainfall.



Death Ridge vs. Upper Level Low
Based on most of the models I've seen, the Death Ridge wins the battle.
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Quoting 1528. PalmBeachWeather:
.........NO....


Are you being for real or is that sarcasm?
Member Since: July 27, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 501
1535. Grothar
Quoting 1527. spathy:






Hurricane glass does no good Gro. The entire frame is just subject to buckling and pushing in.
JMO.
The paranoid one that I am.


That is true if the frames are not properly installed. I have two windows in the back that will not support hurricane glass, so I can not install them there. We have very large windows in the front of the house that have impact glass. and a large tree hit them, but they held. That is why I also have accordian shutters on ALL windows. I wouldn't just trust impact glass. I tell all my friends that.
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2 PM discussion of wave off Africa.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N19W TO 21N18W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE HAS EMERGED OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA AND
COINCIDES WITH A MID-LEVEL 700 MB TROUGH AXIS ALONG 19W. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES MAXIMUM VALUES FROM 08N-17N
BETWEEN 13W-20W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-15N
BETWEEN 16W-23W.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13256
Oh my Camille33, you said you were going to back off and do some thinking on your intensity insanity. So in #1498 your seeing a 92mph cane headed towards Florida. And it's not there yet, so should we expect this to RI to a major? Camille33 you know the terminology, can talk about it intelligently, and then you predict storms to form rapidly to cat4's. I must say, your only predicting a 92mph cane in #1498, I know that was hard for you. So while it's still likely wildly high, it's a good start in the right direction. So you didn't predict it to be a 130mph storm, good job. That's a 38mph improvement.
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Quoting 1525. GTstormChaserCaleb:
The link took me to Dr. Masters blog.


Oops!

Try it now lol
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1530. Grothar
Quoting 1500. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Where do see this going Mr. Grothar?


Too many models have been calling for development at this time in the Gulf for the past two weeks. The current pattern would favor a westward movement in the Gulf. The new wave which was introduced this morning will most like move the the NW or WNW rather than move west. It could easily be a fish storm. However, after 108 hours it could start being moved back to the west and stay under the building ridge.
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Sure is an impressive ULL in the Gulf. Flying over it right now from New Orleans to Orlando. Lots of popcorn out there.

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Quoting 1526. mitchelace5:


Besides Andrea, does this mean Florida will be off the hook this year?
.........NO....
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Quoting 1521. GTstormChaserCaleb:
The mid-level ridge would protect FL. but there is a weakness between that ridge and the central plains ridge in the central-western Gulf for the storm to head towards that weakness.



Besides Andrea, does this mean Florida will be off the hook this year?
Member Since: July 27, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 501
Quoting 1520. tornadodude:
Hey guys, been working on some new Chase Recaps from this past season of my chases, feel free to check it out, I always welcome feedback!

May 18th, 2013 Tornado Chase Recap
The link took me to Dr. Masters blog.
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Quoting 1517. Jedkins01:



Yeah I got nailed here really bad as well. Picked up over 2.5 inches of rain yesterday, the rain and lightning was extremely intense here, really gusty winds as well.

Thankfully the strong rotation likely never translated into a significant tornado event because it formed in heavily rain cooled air from very heavy precip. If that meso spun up ahead of the thunderstorm in the hot unstable air, it could have actually been an unusually strong tornado for our area.

That shear couplet looked unusually impressive last night.

So far though, no reports of tornadoes, although strong winds did reach 60 to 70 mph which caused only some minor damage here and there. Thunderstorm winds don't typically do much damage here thanks to us use to whether prolonged and widespread durations of similar winds from passing tropical cyclones.
Despite the upper low in place, and thunderstorm tops reaching more than 50,000 ft and the radar "thinking" there was 2.5 inch hail out there, no reports of large hail.


We sure have had a lot of severe thunderstorms and tornado/waterspout events this rainy season in the Tampa Bay area. Lots of crazy lighting events as well. I remember a few years back we were getting a lot less severe thunderstorms and lightning than I grew up seeing. It appears we've gone back to how it used to be. A lot more exciting weather.


It's been quite the opposite in Downtown Orlando. Most of the storms are forming west of us and pushing into your area. We have had very few crazy lightning events the past two years, compared to the 2 before. The East Coast Sea Breeze is really kicking things west this summer, and when the West Coast Sea Breeze is strong, it seems to blow things right past us to the East. There has been very few of the normal summer days when the Sea breezes collide over Orlando and the storms just sit.
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1523. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting 1505. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Drier air pushing into FL today, will have to rely on the day time heating for afternoon thunderstorms. ULL moving towards Texas could enhance their rainfall.

they need it things are a little dry
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52096
Quoting 1516. Grothar:


We have French Doors leading out from out bedroom. However, they are all hurricane glass. We also have accordian shutters over all the windows.
Never cared much for French food......or their doors
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The mid-level ridge would protect FL. but there is a weakness between that ridge and the central plains ridge in the central-western Gulf for the storm to head towards that weakness.

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Hey guys, been working on some new Chase Recaps from this past season of my chases, feel free to check it out, I always welcome feedback!

May 18th Tornado and Chase Recap
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Quoting 1518. spathy:




I have often thought about that particular problem.
Nearest bulldozer ....?
spathy.What were they thinking when they built that concrete wall?
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Quoting 1161. LargoFl:
yes we had a very bad storm here by me last night..my dogs were scared also..3000 lightning strikes an hour whew...well hopefully the rains by you the next few days will help with the drought there..you folks really need the rains huh.



Yeah I got nailed here really bad as well. Picked up over 2.5 inches of rain yesterday, the rain and lightning was extremely intense here, really gusty winds as well.

Thankfully the strong rotation likely never translated into a significant tornado event because it formed in heavily rain cooled air from very heavy precip. If that meso spun up ahead of the thunderstorm in the hot unstable air, it could have actually been an unusually strong tornado for our area.

That shear couplet looked unusually impressive last night.

So far though, no reports of tornadoes, although strong winds did reach 60 to 70 mph which caused only some minor damage here and there. Thunderstorm winds don't typically do much damage here thanks to this area being used to rather prolonged and widespread durations of similar winds from passing tropical cyclones.
Despite the upper low in place, and thunderstorm tops reaching more than 50,000 ft and the radar "thinking" there was 2.5 inch hail out there, no reports of large hail.


We sure have had a lot of severe thunderstorms and tornado/waterspout events this rainy season in the Tampa Bay area. Lots of crazy lighting events as well. I remember a few years back we were getting a lot less severe thunderstorms and lightning than I grew up seeing. It appears we've gone back to how it used to be. A lot more exciting weather.

Here's a great view of what it looked like from my area yesterday as the severe cells approached. Chamber of commerce likes to tell you we just get "scattered showers" occasionally in the summer. However, this more than often what we REALLY see :)




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1516. Grothar
Quoting 1506. spathy:





Board em up and use angle-irons if multiple sheets of plywood are needed.


We have French Doors leading out from out bedroom. However, they are all hurricane glass. We also have accordian shutters over all the windows.
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Re: #1505 - Remarkable to see that ULL scooting so rapidly off to the west, after so many of our ULLs took much longer to move that sort of distance. Gives me hope that perhaps regional patterns are starting to change --- not so that we can get clobbered by a hurricane, but so that folks who need rain can perhaps get some, and likewise those of us wanting a bit more sun might see that as well.

(That said, as a gardener I loathe drought, so I'm very careful not to wish rainfall away! LOL)

Time for some barbeque :-) and then to cut the grass :-( Really it's all good...Enjoying the weekend, 'hope my fellow Wundergrounders are doing the same!
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Quoting 1511. Grothar:


Probably all those cheese grits and sausages. I told you it would catch up with you.
The penalty for eating good,
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Quoting 1510. Stormchaser121:
This is yesterdays
i saw it first!!
Member Since: July 2, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1256
I go to the keys quite often fishing and diving....The 20 mile strech from Florida City to Key Largo has been revamped...There are , or is, no cutoffs if there is an accident or hurricane because of the concrete median wall that has been built...Bad engineering on my thinking.
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1511. Grothar
Quoting 1508. PalmBeachWeather:
Having another glitch here


Probably all those cheese grits and sausages. I told you it would catch up with you.
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This is yesterdays
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Quoting 1443. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
sometimes a hurricane can take everything so that nothing remains but the dirt and the water even the bodies are gone


I don't think I would leave for any storm. We tried to leave for Floyd and took 11 hours to go 12 miles. If he had come closer there would have been tens of thousand of people (including us) in a cat 4 or 5 storm.

Our county population (st. Johns County) has doubled since then. The roads are in worse shape now not better. We do live about 14 miles from the beach and ontop of a small hill.
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Having another glitch here
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Quoting 1430. Grothar:
As has been written many times before, it is nearly impossible to properly evacuate in most places in Florida. The low lying coastal areas should be evacuated, of course. But it would take days to properly evacuate where the currently have the lines drawn. We got stuck once trying to leave and I most likely would not do it again, unless it was a 4 or 5. I remember during Adrew, it took 10 hours to get from Miami to Orlando and once there, there were no rooms to stay. Luckily the storm did not move more northerly or there would have been thousands stranded in their cars. Anyone remember Rita?


I recall Rita. That's one reason there needs to be more advanced information on possible storm development, IMO, even before things form. I once saw a storm heading for Freeport, TX and the weather radio alerts didn't change all day long. They had expected it would turn, but it wasn't turning for the longest. It finally did, but that was reckless. If it had not turned & had built up more, it could have caught a lot of people flat-footed, unawares, just because they apparently didn't want to do a possibly unnecessary evacuation. They got lucky that time.
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Drier air pushing into FL today, will have to rely on the day time heating for afternoon thunderstorms. ULL moving towards Texas could enhance their rainfall.

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1504. Gearsts
Bad timing for the waters to warm so fast lol
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1006
Quoting 1495. Bluestorm5:
Settle down, Camille33! Jeez...

lets see what happen I have great forecast track prediction skills it comes with pattern recognition!! I tell you my intensity not good at all!!!
Member Since: July 2, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1256
Quoting 1499. Grothar:


Most important. Many of the homes which were destroyed in Andrew, had their garages blow out first and lost their roofs. The inspector told me the wood beams were actually better than the metal beams.
With a storm like Andrew I really don't think any prep of any kind would have helped.... Andrew was like a gigantic tornado...
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Quoting 1413. opal92nwf:
Me and my family will not evacuate unless it's higher than a Category 3.

What about you?

Will not evacuate unless:
A) Category 1 and above
B) Category 2 and above
C) Category 3 and above
D) Category 4 and above
E) Category 5 and above

Surge would never be a problem (over a hundred feet above sea level) but I'm surrounded by trees, and not far inland, so maybe a Cat 3, or I would just sit in my cellar for the duration of the storm
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Quoting 1494. Grothar:
Where do see this going Mr. Grothar?
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1499. Grothar
Quoting 1488. LargoFl:
its funny, ive been here almost 30 years now..and not once til last year did I think about how strong my garage door was...if you think about it..its a gaping hole in your house should it blow in..and there goes your roof etc...1 yr ago I changed it over to one of those real strong hurricane garage doors..the one with the steel beams running across it..my wife was worried about coast..but one tree flying across the street at 125 mph or so and poof..goes the door..so I went and had it installed..............just one more thing to think about huh.


Most important. Many of the homes which were destroyed in Andrew, had their garages blow out first and lost their roofs. The inspector told me the wood beams were actually better than the metal beams.
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First guess map for late next week storm!! This is not a forecast but guess!!
Member Since: July 2, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1256
Quoting 1458. unknowncomic:
Yes and a nice Saturday at that. Reminds me of the nice weather before Andrew arrived(sinking air》.
I remember that day
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Quoting 1488. LargoFl:
its funny, ive been here almost 30 years now..and not once til last year did I think about how strong my garage door was...if you think about it..its a gaping hole in your house should it blow in..and there goes your roof etc...2 yearsd ago I changed it over to one of those real strong hurricane garage doors..the one with the steel beams running across it..my wife was worried about coast..but one tree flying across the street at 125 mph or so and poof..goes the door..so I went and had it installed..............just one more thing to think about huh.


Any ideas for French doors? I moved into my house a few days before Gustav hit. The front of the house is loaded w/ French doors. They were my main concern. I had nothing on hand except for some random pieces of lumber, some poly, and a whole lot of duct tape. I was lucky, but I'm still not sure if there's a solution to secure them better, other than boarding up.
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Settle down, Camille33! Jeez...
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1494. Grothar
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There's a small problem for me with the 'I would leave for'... It depends on too many factors such as the size of a storm, not in strength, but in width. It depends on how fast or slow it is moving, etc. There's surge to consider, even with a small sized storm. And sometimes storms turn and you can't evacuate. Even if you plan to leave if a cat 1, 2, 3, 4 or 5 storm is coming near you, you need to plan on if it might hit you because storms do unexpectedly turn. Rita wasn't supposed to hit me. There was school because we were 'safe' and by the time we were released, there was no evacuating. We were told not to evacuate or we'd be caught on the roads. Luckily I had done my preparations as a just in case, but many hadn't. By the time I got out of school there was nothing left on the shelves _to_ buy, hence my hurricane stock designed for three had to feed and water six as I helped another family with nothing. But I tend to plan for the worst and hope for the best.
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Quoting 1488. LargoFl:
its funny, ive been here almost 30 years now..and not once til last year did I think about how strong my garage door was...if you think about it..its a gaping hole in your house should it blow in..and there goes your roof etc...2 yearsd ago I changed it over to one of those real strong hurricane garage doors..the one with the steel beams running across it..my wife was worried about coast..but one tree flying across the street at 125 mph or so and poof..goes the door..so I went and had it installed..............just one more thing to think about huh.
The garage door is probably the most important thing .....Really, I know
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1490. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)


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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.