An Active Atlantic Hurricane Season Still Predicted by NOAA, CSU, and TSR

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:07 PM GMT on August 09, 2013

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As we stand on the cusp of the peak part of hurricane season, all of the major groups that perform long-range seasonal hurricane forecasts are still calling for an active 2013 Atlantic hurricane season. NOAA forecasts an above-normal and possibly very active Atlantic hurricane season in 2013, in their August 8 outlook. They give a 70% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of an near-normal season, and 5% chance of a below-normal season. They predict a 70% chance that there will be 13 - 19 named storms, 6 - 9 hurricanes, and 3 - 5 major hurricanes, with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 120% - 190% of the median. If we take the midpoint of these numbers, NOAA is calling for 16 named storms, 7.5 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 155% of normal. This is well above the 1981 - 2010 average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Hurricane seasons during the active hurricane period 1995 - 2012 have averaged 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 151% of the median.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Dorian on July 25, 2013, when the storm reached peak intensity--sustained winds of 60 mph. Formation of early-season tropical storms like Chantal and Dorian in June and July in the deep tropics is usually a harbinger of an active Atlantic hurricane season. Image credit: NASA.

NOAA cites five main reasons to expect an active remainder of hurricane season:

1) Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are above average in the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes, from the coast of Africa to the Caribbean. As of August 9, SST were 0.4°C (0.8°F) above average.
2) Trade winds are weaker than average across the MDR, which has caused the African Monsoon to grow wetter and stronger, the amount of spin over the MDR to increase, and the amount of vertical wind shear to decrease.
3) No El Niño event is present or expected this fall.
4) There have been two early-season tropical storms in the deep tropics (Tropical Storms Chantal and Dorian), which is generally a harbinger of an above-normal season.
5) We are in an active hurricane period that began in 1995.

Colorado State predicts a much above-average hurricane season
A much above-average Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2013, according to the seasonal hurricane forecast issued August 2 by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). The CSU team is calling for 18 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 142. The forecast calls for an above-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (40% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (40% chance, 30% chance is average). The risk of a major hurricane in the Caribbean is also above average, at 53% (42% is average.)

Analogue years
The CSU team picked five previous years when atmospheric and oceanic conditions were similar to what we are seeing this year: cool neutral ENSO conditions and slightly above-average tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures. Those five years were 2008, a very active year with 16 named storms and 4 major hurricanes--Gustav, Ike, Paloma, and Omar; 2007, an active year with 15 named storms and two Category 5 storms--Dean and Felix; 1996, an above average year with 13 named storms and 6 major hurricanes--Edouard, Hortense, Fran, Bertha, Isidore, and Lili; 1966, an average year with 11 named storms and 3 major hurricanes--Inez, Alma, and Faith; and 1952, a below average year with 7 named storms and 3 major hurricanes. The average activity during these five analogue years was 12.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes, and 3.8 major hurricanes.

TSR predicts an above-average hurricane season: 14.8 named storms
The August 6 forecast for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season made by British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) calls for an active season with 14.8 named storms, 6.9 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 121. The long-term averages for the past 63 years are 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an ACE of 103. TSR rates their skill level as good for these August forecasts--47% - 59% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. TSR predicts a 58% chance that U.S. land falling activity will be above average, a 26% chance it will be near average, and a 16% chance it will be below average. They project that 4 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.8 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2012 climatology are 3.1 named storms and 1.4 hurricanes. They rate their skill at making these August forecasts for U.S. landfalls just 9% - 18% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 1.4 named storms, 0.6 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

TSR's two predictors for their statistical model are the forecast July - September trade wind speed over the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic, and the forecast August - September 2013 sea surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic. Their model is calling for warmer than average SSTs and near average trade winds during these periods, and both of these factors should act to increase hurricane and tropical storm activity.


Figure 2. Comparison of the percent improvement over climatology for May and August seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 1999-2009 (May) and 1998-2009 (August), using the Mean Squared Error. Image credit: Verification of 12 years of NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts, National Hurricane Center.


Figure 3. Comparison of the percent improvement in mean square error over climatology for seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 2003-2012, using the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS). The figure shows the results using two different climatologies: a fixed 50-year (1950 - 1999) climatology, and a 2003 - 2012 climatology. Skill is poor for forecasts issued in December and April, moderate for June forecasts, and good for August forecasts. Image credit: Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.

FSU predicts an above-average hurricane season: 15 named storms
The Florida State University (FSU) Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) issued their fifth annual Atlantic hurricane season forecast on May 30, calling for a 70% probability of 12 - 17 named storms and 5 - 10 hurricanes. The mid-point forecast is for 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of 135. The scientists use a numerical atmospheric model developed at COAPS to understand seasonal predictability of hurricane activity. The model is one of only a handful of numerical models in the world being used to study seasonal hurricane activity and is different from the statistical methods used by other seasonal hurricane forecasters such as Colorado State, TSR, and PSU (NOAA uses a hybrid statistical-dynamical model technique.) The FSU forecast has been one of the best ones over the past four years:

2009 prediction: 8 named storms, 4 hurricanes. Actual: 9 named storms, 3 hurricanes
2010 prediction: 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 12 hurricanes
2011 prediction: 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 7 hurricanes
2012 prediction: 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 10 hurricanes

Penn State predicts an above-average hurricane season: 16 named storms
A statistical model by Penn State's Michael Mann and alumnus Michael Kozar is calling for an active Atlantic hurricane season with 16 named storms, plus or minus 4 storms. Their prediction was made using statistics of how past hurricane seasons have behaved in response to sea surface temperatures (SSTs), the El Niño/La Niña oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and other factors. The statistic model assumes that in 2013 the May 0.87°C above average temperatures in the MDR will persist throughout hurricane season, the El Niño phase will be neutral to slightly warm, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will be near average.

The PSU team has been making Atlantic hurricane season forecasts since 2007, and these predictions have done pretty well, except for in 2012, when an expected El Niño did not materialize:

2007 prediction: 15 named storms, Actual: 15
2009 prediction: 12.5, named storms, Actual: 9
2010 prediction: 23 named storms, Actual: 19
2011 prediction: 16 named storms, Actual: 19
2012 prediction: 10.5 named storms, Actual: 19

UK Met Office predicts a slightly above-average hurricane season: 14 named storms
The UKMET office forecast for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, issued May 13, calls for slightly above normal activity, with 14 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and an ACE index of 130. In contrast to the statistical models relied upon by CSU, TSR, and NOAA, the UKMET model is done strictly using two dynamical global seasonal prediction systems: the Met Office GloSea5 system and ECMWF system 4. In 2012, the Met Office forecast was for 10 tropical storms and an ACE index of 90. The actual numbers were 19 named storms and an ACE index of 123.


Figure 4. Total 2013 Atlantic hurricane season activity as predicted by twelve different groups.

NOAA predicts a below-average Eastern Pacific hurricane season
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 23, calls for a below-average season, with 11 - 16 named storms, 5 - 8 hurricanes, 1 - 4 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 60% - 105% of the median. The mid-point of these ranges gives us a forecast for 13.5 named storms, 6.5 hurricanes, and 2.5 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 82% of average. The 1981 - 2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.

NOAA predicts a below-average Central Pacific hurricane season
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Central Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 22, calls for a below-average season, with 1 - 3 tropical cyclones. An average season has 4 - 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes. Hawaii is the primary land area affected by Central Pacific tropical cyclones.

West Pacific typhoon season forecast not available this year
Dr. Johnny Chan of the City University of Hong Kong usually issues a seasonal forecast of typhoon season in the Western Pacific, but did not do so in 2012 or 2013. An average typhoon season has 27 named storms and 17 typhoons. Typhoon seasons immediately following a La Niña year typically see higher levels of activity in the South China Sea, especially between months of May and July. Also, the jet stream tends to dip farther south than usual to the south of Japan, helping steer more tropical cyclones towards Japan and Korea.

Quiet in the Atlantic this weekend
There are no Atlantic threat areas to discuss today, and none of the reliable models for tropical cyclone formation is predicting development during the coming seven days. However, there are some indications that the atmosphere over the tropical Atlantic will become more conducive for tropical storm formation beginning around August 15. The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, may move into the Atlantic then, increasing tropical storm formation odds. At the same time, the computer models are indicating an increase in moisture over the tropical Atlantic, due to a series of tropical waves expected to push off of the coast of Africa. There will also be several eastward-moving Convectively-Coupled Kelvin Waves (CCKWs) traversing the Atlantic during that period. These atmospheric disturbances have a great deal of upward-moving air, which helps strengthen the updrafts of tropical disturbances. Formation of the Eastern Pacific's Hurricane Gil and Henriette were aided by CCKWs. These same CCKWs will cross into the Atlantic and increase the odds of tropical storm formation during the period August 15 - 20.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 2439. MiamiHurricanes09:
I download the b-deck file from here. No idea where it originates from.

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/realtime/plots /northwestpacific/2013/wp112013/


I have no idea why I never thought to look there, lol.
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Quoting 2436. KoritheMan:


Where are you getting this particular directory?
Quoting 2437. Civicane49:


Will you please post a link to that? TIA
I download the b-deck file from here. No idea where it originates from.

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/realtime/plots /northwestpacific/2013/wp112013/
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2438. TXCWC
Appears to be model fight between FIM and GEM models vs. GFS and Euro models right now...tough to go against the reigning model champs but FIM has shown it's worth and should not automatically be discounted

FIM 9


GEM (former cmc)


NAVGEM


GFS
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Quoting 2434. MiamiHurricanes09:
115kts/937mb.

WP, 11, 2013081106, , BEST, 0, 150N, 1248E, 115, 937, XX, 34, NEQ, 145, 125, 125, 135, 1006, 200, 12, 0, 0, W, 0, X, 285, 11, UTOR, D, , , , , , , TCGP EXTRA DATA, WP112013, JTWC, NCEP_TCVITALS,


Will you please post a link to that? TIA
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Quoting 2434. MiamiHurricanes09:
115kts/937mb.

WP, 11, 2013081106, , BEST, 0, 150N, 1248E, 115, 937, XX, 34, NEQ, 145, 125, 125, 135, 1006, 200, 12, 0, 0, W, 0, X, 285, 11, UTOR, D, , , , , , , TCGP EXTRA DATA, WP112013, JTWC, NCEP_TCVITALS,


Where are you getting this particular directory?
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Best 115kt cyclone I've ever seen.

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115kts/937mb.

WP, 11, 2013081106, , BEST, 0, 150N, 1248E, 115, 937, XX, 34, NEQ, 145, 125, 125, 135, 1006, 200, 12, 0, 0, W, 0, X, 285, 11, UTOR, D, , , , , , , TCGP EXTRA DATA, WP112013, JTWC, NCEP_TCVITALS,
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2433. Gearsts
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2432. sar2401
Quoting Tribucanes:
Utor is beautiful. I get why Sar is so sensitive though, there are probably dozens at the minimum in the Philippines who have absolutely no idea, this time tomorrow they will no longer be here. They know Utor is bearing down on them, but they don't know that He will bring death to their door. Over 150,000 people die each day in the world, it's just the nature of our fragile existence. It's sad though, praying for the Philippines tonight. What a beast of a storm.

It's probably more like hundreds of thousands. Once you leave Luzon, you pretty much enter the Twilight Zone when it comes to information or any government assistance. Even those who know what's coming have very little choice about what to do, since most transport is by water, and that either has or will shortly be shut down. It's not uncommon in situations like this to have ferries so overloaded they capsize and kill hundreds.

The Philippines is hard to describe to people who haven't been there. Parts of Metro Manila look like Chicago on a really humid day. Go south to places like Panay and Mindanao and the central Philippine government exists in name only. It's a country of 100 million on thousands of islands, and the Philippine Air Force only has about 45 operable helicopters at any one time. It has a grand total of three C-130 heavy lift transports, the only aircraft capable of carrying relief supplies in large quantities. The Philippine Navy is in even worse shape, with it's newest major vessel being a 50 year old ex- US Coast Guard cutter. Most of the other ships that could be used for rescue and relief are ex-US Navy vessels dating back to to WWII, and they almost never leave anchorage and, when they do, they break down or sink. The typhoon will be bad, but the aftermath will be much worse.
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Henriette remains a tropical storm, with a new burst of convection increasing over the center.

EP, 08, 2013081106, , BEST, 0, 137N, 1530W, 35, 1008, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 10, 10, 40, 1010, 90, 40, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, HENRIETTE, M,
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2430. BDAwx
Quoting 2428. Civicane49:
Latest radar image from PAGASA.



HAHAHA! beat me by seconds!
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2429. BDAwx
I dunno if anyone's posted this link yet, but here's a link to a decent radar near Typhoon Utor.
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Latest radar image from PAGASA.

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2427. Walshy
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Quoting 2408. wxchaser97:

Thanks guys! I'll have a good birthday, hopefully it'll include me getting a new computer as my current one is pretty old. I still love this place no matter what happens.


And we all love you. Don't let anybody tell or make you feel differently.
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Quoting 2421. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Kori dance for us now :P



Dude... the core of precipitation and strong winds is literally right over me. I just...

OH MY GAWD
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Member Since: July 9, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 768
Quoting 2418. KoritheMan:


I lost my sanity long through that mechanism long ago. That's probably why I want to be bombarded by hurricanes. ;)
Kori dance for us now :P

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8418
Flash Flood US %u201CAugust 2013%u2033 %u2013 3rd in Colorado This Year Leaves 1 Dead, 3 Missing http://climatestate.com/2013/08/11/flash-flood-us -3rd-august-2013-in-colorado-leaves-1-dead-3-missi ng/
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Earlier pic tweeted by James Reynolds

@Typhoonfury
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Quoting 2415. BaltimoreBrian:


What are we going to do with you? First calling a typhoon a hurricane. Then not able to work a simple map program. Now identifying mountainous areas as not particularly mountainous!

Has working at Wal-Mart been causing your neurons to explode again?


I lost my sanity through that mechanism long ago. That's probably why I want to be bombarded by hurricanes. ;)
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2417. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #21
TYPHOON UTOR (T1311)
15:00 PM JST August 11 2013
===================================

SUBJECT: Category Four Typhoon Named Cyclone In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Utor (940 hPa) located at 15.1N 124.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 130 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 12 knots.

Storm Force Winds
===================
70 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==================
150 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS: 17.5N 120.8E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Overland Luzon
48 HRS: 19.7N 116.0E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
72 HRS: 21.0N 112.7E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
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Quoting 2391. yqt1001:


Technically it's August so we should be getting a lot of these storms...but the way 2013 has been going, we might not.


I wouldn't say that. As yet.
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Quoting 2413. KoritheMan:


I took a closer look, and it appears you're right.

Whatever. :P


What are we going to do with you? First calling a typhoon a hurricane. Then not able to work a simple map program. Now identifying mountainous areas as not particularly mountainous!

Has working at Wal-Mart been causing your neurons to explode again?
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Somebody tell the EPAC to simmer down it's just popping out storms like there is no tomorrow.



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Quoting 2409. BaltimoreBrian:


Kori, southwest China is very mountainous.


I took a closer look, and it appears you're right.

Whatever. :P
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I'm praying and hoping that everyone on the island makes it out alive.
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I'm praying and hoping that everyone in the Phillipines
Quoting 2388. wxchaser97:

This is the best I can find and hopefully it is what you're looking for. WPac tracking map


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Nite all!!!
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Quoting 2405. KoritheMan:
The inland decay rate with Utor will probably be rather slow if it follows the projected track. From what I can tell, southwestern China is not particularly mountainous.


Kori, southwest China is very mountainous.
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Quoting 2399. KoritheMan:


Take it easy, man. Do what you need to do, and have a good birthday.

This place, and all of its drama will still be here when you get back. :)
Quoting 2400. MiamiHurricanes09:
It's pretty obvious you meant that from a meteorological perspective. As tropical weather enthusiasts, we all hope for category 5 cyclones because they're absolutely visually stunning. Nobody wants death and destruction, and telling from the fact that you're a great poster, it's evident that that's not what you meant.

No need for anyone to be sensitive about it.

Thanks guys! I'll have a good birthday, hopefully it'll include me getting a new computer as my current one is pretty old. I still love this place no matter what happens.
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Quoting 2385. KoritheMan:


Seems okay, except... how do I erase the tropical cyclone points? Is that even possible?


You can erase the cyclone points and use a draw free-form line function.
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Quoting 2397. wxchaser97:

Yeah I probably should've kept that last part to myself. I am not someone who wants death and destruction, I was just looking at the situation from a historical perspective. Though after being called cocky, ignorant, and insensitive, along with my birthday being tomorrow, I'm taking a couple day break.
Take it easy and I will try and remember to drop a Happy Birthday comment to your blog...And I don't think you are any of those things that certain bloggers on here have said about you tonight. I think all of us that post here need to take a step back, calm down, relax, and not take things personal and attack other bloggers. The mods have been really good about letting things slide lately, but I have a feeling once we have storms in the Atlantic they will strictly be enforcing the rules. Let's learn to respect each other and if you don't have something nice to say don't say it at all or keep it to yourself. And be on alert for trolls never let them get you upset and force you to display that anger on this blog when that happens they win. Do the right thing ignore or just don't pay them no mind and they will go away. I need to tell myself all this and apply it as well.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8418
The inland decay rate with Utor will probably be rather slow if it follows the projected track. From what I can tell, southwestern China is not particularly mountainous.
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Beautiful, but dangerous.

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2403. yqt1001
Utor is an incredibly small storm, the maximum winds, but very intense winds, are in an incredibly tiny radius. Storm surge shouldn't be too big of a threat either. Luzon is also relatively sparsely populated, and it gets many strong typhoons a year, they are very well prepared. All of the bad Filipino typhoons have been much further south. Not to say it wouldn't be very bad to be in, but the distance it will cover won't be that big.

Winds could get bad if it keeps on intensifying until Megi strength though.
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I'm sorry SAR but a few acres of parking are not going to create a heat island. You need tall buildings for a strong heat island effect anyway with radiation bouncing between buildings. On a clear night in your small town the heat would radiate out of the parking lots--and on a windy day be blown away.

What your town is doubtlessly experiencing is climate warming.
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This storm is the beauty everyone wants to see but sadly this one is going to land and affect land pretty soon,hope the Phillippines are prepare and I hope it doesn`t happen the same of what happen with Bopha.Nights wunderground comunity.
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Quoting 2397. wxchaser97:

Yeah I probably should've kept that last part to myself. I am not someone who wants death and destruction, I was just looking at the situation from a historical perspective. Though after being called cocky, ignorant, and insensitive, along with my birthday being tomorrow, I'm taking a couple day break.
It's pretty obvious you meant that from a meteorological perspective. As tropical weather enthusiasts, we all hope for category 5 cyclones because they're absolutely visually stunning. Nobody wants death and destruction, and telling from the fact that you're a great poster, it's evident that that's not what you meant.

No need for anyone to be sensitive about it.
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Quoting 2397. wxchaser97:

Yeah I probably should've kept that last part to myself. I am not someone who wants death and destruction, I was just looking at the situation from a historical perspective. Though after being called cocky, ignorant, and insensitive, along with my birthday being tomorrow, I'm taking a couple day break.


Take it easy, man. Do what you need to do, and have a good birthday.

This place, and all of its drama will still be here when you get back. :)
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Typhoons in the Philippines
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Quoting 2345. mitchelace5:


You won't be saying that if we had a storm like that in the Atlantic.
Quoting 2347. KoritheMan:


As someone who wants to experience major hurricane landfalls, I agree that comments like this should be kept to oneself.

However, I've known Isaac for awhile now, and I don't think he meant anything by it.

Let it go.

Yeah I probably should've kept that last part to myself. I am not someone who wants death and destruction, I was just looking at the situation from a historical perspective. Though after being called cocky, ignorant, and insensitive, along with my birthday being tomorrow (spending time with family and friends), I'm taking a couple day break.
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Quoting 2385. KoritheMan:


Seems okay, except... how do I erase the tropical cyclone points? Is that even possible?

Under layers, you can just deselect everything (except for Google Hybrid/Terrain), or you can just take a screen shot of the WPac on Google Maps.
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Starting in the WPAC with Utor first and rightfully so as this one will be threatening lives very soon. I will say a prayer for everyone in the path of this storm before I go to bed and in church in the morning that all may make it out alive and well after this storm passes by them.

Low resolution FIM-7 current initialization:




And the track forecast:

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8418
2393. TXCWC
forecasted gusts for Utor to be around 160mph at landfall...news sadly I do not think will be good in a day or 2 with this Link



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Quoting 2387. mitchelace5:


At least I'm not an insensitive prick who loves to see an island get torn to shreds and people getting killed by a monstrous cyclone


Dude, cool it. GeorgiaStormz and Isaac are both good people. I've known them both for awhile.

We don't need this dumb debate again.

They aren't the only ones who should bite their tongue. Your comments don't do anything but make you feel vindicated and superior, which isn't going to do anything to help the victims that are going to be affected by Utor.

Pray, send humanitarian aid, do whatever. But drowning yourself in a pool of self-righteousness isn't going to generate productive discussion.

Let. It. Go.

Jesus...
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2391. yqt1001
Quoting 2386. MiamiHurricanes09:
Probably won't see a cyclone this beautiful in a while.



Technically it's August so we should be getting a lot of these storms...but the way 2013 has been going, we might not.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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