An Active Atlantic Hurricane Season Still Predicted by NOAA, CSU, and TSR

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:07 PM GMT on August 09, 2013

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As we stand on the cusp of the peak part of hurricane season, all of the major groups that perform long-range seasonal hurricane forecasts are still calling for an active 2013 Atlantic hurricane season. NOAA forecasts an above-normal and possibly very active Atlantic hurricane season in 2013, in their August 8 outlook. They give a 70% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of an near-normal season, and 5% chance of a below-normal season. They predict a 70% chance that there will be 13 - 19 named storms, 6 - 9 hurricanes, and 3 - 5 major hurricanes, with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 120% - 190% of the median. If we take the midpoint of these numbers, NOAA is calling for 16 named storms, 7.5 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 155% of normal. This is well above the 1981 - 2010 average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Hurricane seasons during the active hurricane period 1995 - 2012 have averaged 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 151% of the median.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Dorian on July 25, 2013, when the storm reached peak intensity--sustained winds of 60 mph. Formation of early-season tropical storms like Chantal and Dorian in June and July in the deep tropics is usually a harbinger of an active Atlantic hurricane season. Image credit: NASA.

NOAA cites five main reasons to expect an active remainder of hurricane season:

1) Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are above average in the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes, from the coast of Africa to the Caribbean. As of August 9, SST were 0.4°C (0.8°F) above average.
2) Trade winds are weaker than average across the MDR, which has caused the African Monsoon to grow wetter and stronger, the amount of spin over the MDR to increase, and the amount of vertical wind shear to decrease.
3) No El Niño event is present or expected this fall.
4) There have been two early-season tropical storms in the deep tropics (Tropical Storms Chantal and Dorian), which is generally a harbinger of an above-normal season.
5) We are in an active hurricane period that began in 1995.

Colorado State predicts a much above-average hurricane season
A much above-average Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2013, according to the seasonal hurricane forecast issued August 2 by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). The CSU team is calling for 18 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 142. The forecast calls for an above-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (40% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (40% chance, 30% chance is average). The risk of a major hurricane in the Caribbean is also above average, at 53% (42% is average.)

Analogue years
The CSU team picked five previous years when atmospheric and oceanic conditions were similar to what we are seeing this year: cool neutral ENSO conditions and slightly above-average tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures. Those five years were 2008, a very active year with 16 named storms and 4 major hurricanes--Gustav, Ike, Paloma, and Omar; 2007, an active year with 15 named storms and two Category 5 storms--Dean and Felix; 1996, an above average year with 13 named storms and 6 major hurricanes--Edouard, Hortense, Fran, Bertha, Isidore, and Lili; 1966, an average year with 11 named storms and 3 major hurricanes--Inez, Alma, and Faith; and 1952, a below average year with 7 named storms and 3 major hurricanes. The average activity during these five analogue years was 12.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes, and 3.8 major hurricanes.

TSR predicts an above-average hurricane season: 14.8 named storms
The August 6 forecast for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season made by British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) calls for an active season with 14.8 named storms, 6.9 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 121. The long-term averages for the past 63 years are 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an ACE of 103. TSR rates their skill level as good for these August forecasts--47% - 59% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. TSR predicts a 58% chance that U.S. land falling activity will be above average, a 26% chance it will be near average, and a 16% chance it will be below average. They project that 4 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.8 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2012 climatology are 3.1 named storms and 1.4 hurricanes. They rate their skill at making these August forecasts for U.S. landfalls just 9% - 18% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 1.4 named storms, 0.6 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

TSR's two predictors for their statistical model are the forecast July - September trade wind speed over the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic, and the forecast August - September 2013 sea surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic. Their model is calling for warmer than average SSTs and near average trade winds during these periods, and both of these factors should act to increase hurricane and tropical storm activity.


Figure 2. Comparison of the percent improvement over climatology for May and August seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 1999-2009 (May) and 1998-2009 (August), using the Mean Squared Error. Image credit: Verification of 12 years of NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts, National Hurricane Center.


Figure 3. Comparison of the percent improvement in mean square error over climatology for seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 2003-2012, using the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS). The figure shows the results using two different climatologies: a fixed 50-year (1950 - 1999) climatology, and a 2003 - 2012 climatology. Skill is poor for forecasts issued in December and April, moderate for June forecasts, and good for August forecasts. Image credit: Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.

FSU predicts an above-average hurricane season: 15 named storms
The Florida State University (FSU) Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) issued their fifth annual Atlantic hurricane season forecast on May 30, calling for a 70% probability of 12 - 17 named storms and 5 - 10 hurricanes. The mid-point forecast is for 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of 135. The scientists use a numerical atmospheric model developed at COAPS to understand seasonal predictability of hurricane activity. The model is one of only a handful of numerical models in the world being used to study seasonal hurricane activity and is different from the statistical methods used by other seasonal hurricane forecasters such as Colorado State, TSR, and PSU (NOAA uses a hybrid statistical-dynamical model technique.) The FSU forecast has been one of the best ones over the past four years:

2009 prediction: 8 named storms, 4 hurricanes. Actual: 9 named storms, 3 hurricanes
2010 prediction: 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 12 hurricanes
2011 prediction: 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 7 hurricanes
2012 prediction: 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 10 hurricanes

Penn State predicts an above-average hurricane season: 16 named storms
A statistical model by Penn State's Michael Mann and alumnus Michael Kozar is calling for an active Atlantic hurricane season with 16 named storms, plus or minus 4 storms. Their prediction was made using statistics of how past hurricane seasons have behaved in response to sea surface temperatures (SSTs), the El Niño/La Niña oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and other factors. The statistic model assumes that in 2013 the May 0.87°C above average temperatures in the MDR will persist throughout hurricane season, the El Niño phase will be neutral to slightly warm, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will be near average.

The PSU team has been making Atlantic hurricane season forecasts since 2007, and these predictions have done pretty well, except for in 2012, when an expected El Niño did not materialize:

2007 prediction: 15 named storms, Actual: 15
2009 prediction: 12.5, named storms, Actual: 9
2010 prediction: 23 named storms, Actual: 19
2011 prediction: 16 named storms, Actual: 19
2012 prediction: 10.5 named storms, Actual: 19

UK Met Office predicts a slightly above-average hurricane season: 14 named storms
The UKMET office forecast for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, issued May 13, calls for slightly above normal activity, with 14 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and an ACE index of 130. In contrast to the statistical models relied upon by CSU, TSR, and NOAA, the UKMET model is done strictly using two dynamical global seasonal prediction systems: the Met Office GloSea5 system and ECMWF system 4. In 2012, the Met Office forecast was for 10 tropical storms and an ACE index of 90. The actual numbers were 19 named storms and an ACE index of 123.


Figure 4. Total 2013 Atlantic hurricane season activity as predicted by twelve different groups.

NOAA predicts a below-average Eastern Pacific hurricane season
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 23, calls for a below-average season, with 11 - 16 named storms, 5 - 8 hurricanes, 1 - 4 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 60% - 105% of the median. The mid-point of these ranges gives us a forecast for 13.5 named storms, 6.5 hurricanes, and 2.5 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 82% of average. The 1981 - 2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.

NOAA predicts a below-average Central Pacific hurricane season
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Central Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 22, calls for a below-average season, with 1 - 3 tropical cyclones. An average season has 4 - 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes. Hawaii is the primary land area affected by Central Pacific tropical cyclones.

West Pacific typhoon season forecast not available this year
Dr. Johnny Chan of the City University of Hong Kong usually issues a seasonal forecast of typhoon season in the Western Pacific, but did not do so in 2012 or 2013. An average typhoon season has 27 named storms and 17 typhoons. Typhoon seasons immediately following a La Niña year typically see higher levels of activity in the South China Sea, especially between months of May and July. Also, the jet stream tends to dip farther south than usual to the south of Japan, helping steer more tropical cyclones towards Japan and Korea.

Quiet in the Atlantic this weekend
There are no Atlantic threat areas to discuss today, and none of the reliable models for tropical cyclone formation is predicting development during the coming seven days. However, there are some indications that the atmosphere over the tropical Atlantic will become more conducive for tropical storm formation beginning around August 15. The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, may move into the Atlantic then, increasing tropical storm formation odds. At the same time, the computer models are indicating an increase in moisture over the tropical Atlantic, due to a series of tropical waves expected to push off of the coast of Africa. There will also be several eastward-moving Convectively-Coupled Kelvin Waves (CCKWs) traversing the Atlantic during that period. These atmospheric disturbances have a great deal of upward-moving air, which helps strengthen the updrafts of tropical disturbances. Formation of the Eastern Pacific's Hurricane Gil and Henriette were aided by CCKWs. These same CCKWs will cross into the Atlantic and increase the odds of tropical storm formation during the period August 15 - 20.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
250 PM EDT SAT AUG 10 2013

VAC036-073-095-097-101-127-199-101915-
/O.CON.KAKQ.SV.W.0088.000000T0000Z-130810T1915Z/
NEW KENT VA-KING WILLIAM VA-KING AND QUEEN VA-CHARLES CITY VA-
GLOUCESTER VA-JAMES CITY VA-YORK VA-
250 PM EDT SAT AUG 10 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
YORK...JAMES CITY...NORTHWESTERN GLOUCESTER...EAST CENTRAL CHARLES
CITY...SOUTHEASTERN KING AND QUEEN...EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KING
WILLIAM AND EASTERN NEW KENT COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

AT 249 PM EDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE
STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM WEST POINT TO
BARHAMSVILLE TO HOLDCROFT...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL
MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE DAMAGING WINDS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
SHACKLEFORDS AROUND 255 PM EDT.
TOANO AROUND 300 PM EDT.
NORGE AROUND 305 PM EDT.
GLENNS AROUND 310 PM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDE MOUNT
AIRY...DIASCUND...CLANCIE...GRESSIT...WARREN MILL...YORK RIVER STATE
PARK...CROAKER...ADNER...CENTERVILLE AND LIGHTFOOT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE ACROSS
HANOVER AND NEW KENT COUNTIES. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
SITUATION. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY
FROM WINDOWS.

PLEASE SEND YOUR REPORTS OF HAIL AND OR WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING TREES
OR LARGE LIMBS DOWNED...BY CALLING NOAA`S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN WAKEFIELD AT...1...800...7 3 7...8 6 2 4.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. DUE TO THE ROTATING NATURE OF
SUPERCELLS...THEY ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ALL TYPES OF SEVERE
WEATHER...INCLUDING LARGE HAIL...DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND
POSSIBLY TORNADOES. BE PREPARED TO ACT QUICKLY SHOULD A TORNADO
OCCUR OR A TORNADO WARNING BE ISSUED.


TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.
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Quoting 1582. mitchelace5:
What is the steering line for tropical systems?


It depends upon the strength of the storm, whether it's upper level steering or low level steering.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 246 Comments: 3970
Quoting 1521. GTstormChaserCaleb:
The mid-level ridge would protect FL. but there is a weakness between that ridge and the central plains ridge in the central-western Gulf for the storm to head towards that weakness.


Interesting...still looking like either TX or LA
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1587. LargoFl
Protect your home against a hurricane, without wasting time



By Jack Williams, USATODAY.com

Any time a hurricane approaches the coast you're likely to see scenes of people wasting their time and energy "preparing" for the storm.

In fact, you might have seen these images so often that you think the folks shown are doing the correct thing.

If a hurricane is approaching, forget about:
•Rushing to a building supply store to buy plywood for your windows.
•Taping up your windows.

If your house is in danger of being hit by a hurricane, protecting windows and sliding glass doors is almost always the number one thing you can do to ensure you'll have a livable house if the worst happens.

But, if you wait until a hurricane watch is posted, you are almost surely too late.

Taping up windows is a waste of time because tape isn't going to keep your neighbor's garbage can - which he should have stashed in a place where the wind can't grab it - from breaking your window when a 100 mph wind flings it at your house.

True, the tape just might keep the glass from flying around the room when the garbage can hits it.

But an important rule for any wind storm is to not be in a room with windows that can be broken. If your house doesn't have a windowless room, you should at least do something like cowering behind an overturned table or a heavy sofa in case glass starts flying.

If you waste time taping your windows, about the best you can hope for is that the storm will miss your house, and the tape won't be too hard to remove.

While tape doesn't do much, heavy plywood or metal shutters are vital. But you can't wait until a storm is bearing down to go buy the plywood because by then it's almost surely too late.

This is because the plywood has to fit the windows and it has to be firmly attached to them.

Experts recommend using 3/4 inch plywood and drilling screw holes 18 inches apart all around it. Are you going to have time to do this after a watch is posted?

This is the kind of thing that should be done well ahead of time so the window covers will be stored with the screws started, and everything you'll need to install them,such as a ladder and the correct size screwdriver handy.

The big question you have to answer ahead of time is: Who's going to install the plywood covers, maybe with a 20 mph wind gusting to 30 mph as a storm approaches? It's probably a sure bet it's not going to be your 70-year-old mother, by herself.

Why is protecting windows so important?

Once a window is broken, the wind blows inside to not only wreck the interior, but also to apply upward pressure on the roof, which might be enough to sent if flying. If this happens, the walls collapse and your house is done for.

Protection can include impact-resistant glass or other permanent materials that have passed the state of Florida or Miami-Dade County (Fla.) impact standards tests, sturdy shutters, or pieces of marine plywood, marked and cut to fit each window and glass door.

Here are some other things you should do before a tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning is posted:
• Remove weak and dead trees or tree limbs on your property.
•Know whether your home is in a zone that could be flooded by storm surge, meaning you'd have to evacuate.
•Have plans for where you will go if you evacuate, when you will leave (maybe early to avoid traffic jams), and how family members will contact each other.
•If you might have to evacuate, have a "grab and run" bag ready with important papers, such as your home owners insurance policy, and prescription drugs.
•If you live outside possible storm surge zones, and your house is sturdy, you should plan on riding out the storm in a "safe room" inside the house. (Related story: Home shelters can save lives).
•Have an evacuation or survival kit ready with nonperishable food, water, a first aid kit and other things you'll need.
•Have a battery-powered radio, maybe a battery-powered television set for keeping up with the latest advisories.

After a watch is posted, you should have done all of the things listed above. How you should stay tuned to forecasts and possible warnings. If you are in an area that could be flooded, you should be ready to evacuate.

Of course, if you are living in a mobile home, or a house that isn't sturdy enough to stand up to the wind, you should evacuate early and avoid the rush


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1583. TheDawnAwakening:


What are you reading? Are you kidding me? Conditions are gonna change, and change fast, as soon as the MJO reaches upward phase activity will jump upwards and fast. SSTs are increasing rapidly, shear is decreasing slowly as the tutt breaks down and heads northeastward out into the central North Atlantic.


Yeah, but it seems that a High will be protecting FL this year
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Quoting 1524. Naga5000:


It's been quite the opposite in Downtown Orlando. Most of the storms are forming west of us and pushing into your area. We have had very few crazy lightning events the past two years, compared to the 2 before. The East Coast Sea Breeze is really kicking things west this summer, and when the West Coast Sea Breeze is strong, it seems to blow things right past us to the East. There has been very few of the normal summer days when the Sea breezes collide over Orlando and the storms just sit.


See I guess its all a matter of perspective, it seems like we have had a west to east flow too often rather than east to west. The east to west flow this week was the first we've seen in a couple weeks.
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Quoting 1575. Socalmargie:
wow, i hear a few people on this blog in big denial about this being a very active year. From everything i have been reading and watching, conditions arent gonna change much over the next few months . So im gratfully happy that we dont have any more storms


What are you reading? Are you kidding me? Conditions are gonna change, and change fast, as soon as the MJO reaches upward phase activity will jump upwards and fast. SSTs are increasing rapidly, shear is decreasing slowly as the tutt breaks down and heads northeastward out into the central North Atlantic.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 246 Comments: 3970
What is the steering line for tropical systems?
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1581. flcanes
Quoting 1575. Socalmargie:
wow, i hear a few people on this blog in big denial about this being a very active year. From everything i have been reading and watching, conditions arent gonna change much over the next few months . So im gratfully happy that we dont have any more storms

That wont last long...
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Quoting 1558. allancalderini:
I am almost sure that is Claudette.

It is
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1578. LargoFl
last hurricane to actually HIT tampa bay was over 90 years ago..1921 and even that one hit just north of tampa near tarpon springs..old timers may be right..hurricanes don't come here..but me?..i dunno..never say never when in regards to weather huh.
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1576. LargoFl
one more thing to remember about hurricanes..its in what direction it comes in...a hurricane in the early part of this century hnit the tampa bay area in such a way as to literally PUSH the whole tampa bay waters INTO tampa bay and northwards..Pinellas county anf tampa got flooded hard..cities like oldsmar and safety harbor..under water..where I live in largo which is mid county..i'd have had oceanfront property lol...
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1573. ricderr
Any ideas for French doors?

it depends on how much money you want to throw at the problem.....

you can always buy french doors that are hurricane rated...both the door set up and the glass insert....ODL glass inserts would be my first choice...doors would have to be outswing...and for interior design that's usually best also as you need not worry of door swing....

next best alternative and much less expensive would be hurricane shutters....and easy and quick way to board up
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Quoting 1570. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Alright I'll give him a call to come pick you up then. ;)
Still waiting
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Quoting 1562. Hurricanes101:


Again how does he explain 2004? We had a very rainy May and June that year and I would think fundamentally that makes no sense. If steering is the same and moisture is being brought into the area from that steering, then why would the same steering deflect a hurricane? If the steering is the same, you would think that the hurricanes would follow the same path.
You are correct.The same pattern that brings us lots of rsin usually later down the raod sends us a hurricane.Before Irene and Sandy recently we had very wet patterns before hand either 3-2 months before the storms came.
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Quoting 1564. PalmBeachWeather:
Thanks GT....I will be waiting outside for the Limo.........
Alright I'll give him a call to come pick you up then. ;)
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8774
Quoting 1566. spathy:





Dont forget to come up with a plan for plywood storage. I used a wall mounted clamping system in the garage.
Wood was used every year after Andrew,and is still in good shape.
Also use hexhead screws and washers. That way if power goes out or a screw gets stripped,you can use a ratchet wrench.
I set up my parents system one window at a time before another storm hit.
But a word of advice
As the years turned into decades the 3/4 " plywood became almost too much for this old fart to handle.

Plywood is very heavy....Not my protection of choice...
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Dangerous heat index out there today.


Even the beach looks pretty empty (Ft. Myers Beach). Too hot to go to the beach.
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Quoting 1562. Hurricanes101:


Again how does he explain 2004? We had a very rainy May and June that year
It was also an El-Nino Modoki, a rare event, so I guess a loophole to his findings?
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8774
1565. beell
Quoting 1550. Stormchaser121:
Good analog for the Carib storm


Except I doubt any devlopmemt would occur that far east.
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Quoting 1563. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I'd say if you're celebrity rich and hot, you have a chance. :D
Thanks GT....I will be waiting outside for the Limo.........
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Quoting 1555. PalmBeachWeather:
GT...........I posted on Brad Pitt's facebook page...I asked him if he would like to meet me at the Burger King in Boynton Beach Florida....I have no answer yet...What are my chances???
I'd say if you're celebrity rich and hot, you have a chance. :D
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8774
Quoting 1560. GTstormChaserCaleb:
From Dennis Phillips Facebook page..."There's a researcher from the University of Miami who says when we get prolonged rainy periods in May or June, we have NEVER been hit by a hurricane in those years. There IS science behind that as the ridge that would pump in the moisture in the first place would also Shield Florida from storms. I don't buy it, but why not. It's as good as any other long range hurricane prediction." So really it's just a theory or hypothesis, however you want to look at it.


Again how does he explain 2004? We had a very rainy May and June that year and I would think fundamentally that makes no sense. If steering is the same and moisture is being brought into the area from that steering, then why would the same steering deflect a hurricane? If the steering is the same, you would think that the hurricanes would follow the same path.
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Quoting 1558. allancalderini:
I am almost sure that is Claudette.


It is Claudette from 2003. Just look at the URL for the image if you're not sure. ;)
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From Dennis Phillips Facebook page..."There's a researcher from the University of Miami who says when we get prolonged rainy periods in May or June, we have NEVER been hit by a hurricane in those years. There IS science behind that as the ridge that would pump in the moisture in the first place would also Shield Florida from storms. I don't buy it, but why not. It's as good as any other long range hurricane prediction." So really it's just a theory or hypothesis, however you want to look at it.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8774
Quoting 1554. yonzabam:
Swedish men told to beware of testicle munching fish

Very odd story this. The fish is a pacu, related to piranhas, and usually found in freshwater in Amazonia. Some have been introduced into New Guinea as a food fish, and there are stories of some unfortunates there having their dangly bits bitten off, and bleeding to death.

I know global warming will result in species redistributions, but this is ridiculous. Moreover, it was caught in salt water, between Denmark and Sweden. I've a feeling it might turn out to be a hoax, but who knows?

Link

Edit: sorry, meant to post it on the climate change blog.


No problem: we all know Swedish-meatball-eating fish supposedly caught in the ocean has a place here in tropical weather info.,...after Sharknado! (haha)
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Quoting 1550. Stormchaser121:
Good analog for the Carib storm
I am almost sure that is Claudette.
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Quoting 1556. Camille33:

I hope that doesnt happen to me that will hurt a lot!!
That would put your eye out kid
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Quoting 1554. yonzabam:
Swedish men told to beware of testicle munching fish

Very odd story this. The fish is a pacu, related to piranhas, and usually found in freshwater in Amazonia. Some have been introduced into New Guinea as a food fish, and there are stories of some unfortunates there having their dangly bits bitten off, and bleeding to death.

I know global warming will result in species redistributions, but this is ridiculous. Moreover, it was caught in salt water, between Denmark and Sweden. I've a feeling it might turn out to be a hoax, but who knows?

Link

I hope that doesnt happen to me that will hurt a lot!!
Member Since: July 2, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1523
Quoting 1549. GTstormChaserCaleb:
It was posted on Dennis Phillips Facebook Page. I'll see if it is still there.
GT...........I posted on Brad Pitt's facebook page...I asked him if he would like to meet me at the Burger King in Boynton Beach Florida....I have no answer yet...What are my chances???
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Swedish men told to beware of testicle munching fish

Very odd story this. The fish is a pacu, related to piranhas, and usually found in freshwater in Amazonia. Some have been introduced into New Guinea as a food fish, and there are stories of some unfortunates there having their dangly bits bitten off, and bleeding to death.

I know global warming will result in species redistributions, but this is ridiculous. Moreover, it was caught in salt water, between Denmark and Sweden. I've a feeling it might turn out to be a hoax, but who knows?

Link

Edit: sorry, meant to post it on the climate change blog.
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mitchelace5 you must really think we are that lucky JUST PREPARE.
Member Since: July 24, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 363
Quoting 1535. Grothar:


That is true if the frames are not properly installed. I have two windows in the back that will not support hurricane glass, so I can not install them there. We have very large windows in the front of the house that have impact glass. and a large tree hit them, but they held. That is why I also have accordian shutters on ALL windows. I wouldn't just trust impact glass. I tell all my friends that.


Thanks for the info, guys. I just priced some accordion shutters, and got a bit of sticker shock. So...plywood it is! Maybe accordion shutters down the road :)
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Spathy, the hurricane french doors I purchaed for my house, the frames are made of reinforced aluminum ith 1/2" heat on heat low E glass. All my other casement windows and dooes are the same. I doubt they will buckle during a major hurricane. My dooden doors and non hurricane windows survived Andrew and every other storm we have been through. We did put 3/4" plywood over the windows for protection against flying objects.
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Good analog for the Carib storm
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Quoting 1543. Hurricanes101:


I have heard the exact opposite, after all - how do you explain 2004? It was dry here until May that year and then for 2 straight months we had nasty thunderstorms almost daily - then 3 hurricanes
It was posted on Dennis Phillips Facebook Page. I'll see if it is still there.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8774
1548. ncstorm
12z Euro looks like it may be moving a Low into the BOC which it hasnt shown in the 00z run..

stay tuned..

edit..now its showing vorticity..
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Quoting 1520. tornadodude:
Hey guys, been working on some new Chase Recaps from this past season of my chases, feel free to check it out, I always welcome feedback!

May 18th Tornado and Chase Recap
I love your eagerness :) were you the one filming?
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8774
Is the high expected to stay over and cover Florida this whole season, or no?
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Quoting 1505. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Drier air pushing into FL today, will have to rely on the day time heating for afternoon thunderstorms. ULL moving towards Texas could enhance their rainfall.



This seems to be the same low I was a little concerned about, yesterday. I was informed it had no chance of development due to the ridge of pressure over Florida. Maybe not, but that ridge of pressure indeed falls off in the middle of the GOM, and this storm has moved that far fast. It is going so fast it likely won't do much before landfall, but that doesn't mean everything is impossible. What if it were to slow down? I prefer to keep my guard up & be cautious.
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Quoting 1541. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Too soon to say that, however, there is a researcher who claimed that when FL. is seeing a rainy season like they are seeing now the storms tend to steer away from us. I had it bookmarked and now I can't seem to find it.


I have heard the exact opposite, after all - how do you explain 2004? It was dry here until May that year and then for 2 straight months we had nasty thunderstorms almost daily - then 3 hurricanes
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Quoting 1538. Jedkins01:


Well, upper level dry air is moving, however, low level moisture is still quite deep. In fact, the PW is expected to remain around 1.8 to 1.9 which is almost all surface based.

Drier air aloft and a cap moving in will still reduce coverage, but steep lapse rates should allow for still some powerful thunderstorms late in the day on the sea breeze collision. Also, level moisture is very efficient at pooling and increasing locally along sea breeze boundaries due to warm water temps, so that too will help.


Yep, less storms, but the ones that do form could be quite strong.
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Quoting 1526. mitchelace5:


Besides Andrea, does this mean Florida will be off the hook this year?
Too soon to say that, however, there is a researcher who claimed that when FL. is seeing a rainy season like they are seeing now the storms tend to steer away from us. I had it bookmarked and now I can't seem to find it.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8774
Quoting 1536. mitchelace5:


Are you being for real or is that sarcasm?
For real
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.