An Active Atlantic Hurricane Season Still Predicted by NOAA, CSU, and TSR

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:07 PM GMT on August 09, 2013

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As we stand on the cusp of the peak part of hurricane season, all of the major groups that perform long-range seasonal hurricane forecasts are still calling for an active 2013 Atlantic hurricane season. NOAA forecasts an above-normal and possibly very active Atlantic hurricane season in 2013, in their August 8 outlook. They give a 70% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of an near-normal season, and 5% chance of a below-normal season. They predict a 70% chance that there will be 13 - 19 named storms, 6 - 9 hurricanes, and 3 - 5 major hurricanes, with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 120% - 190% of the median. If we take the midpoint of these numbers, NOAA is calling for 16 named storms, 7.5 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 155% of normal. This is well above the 1981 - 2010 average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Hurricane seasons during the active hurricane period 1995 - 2012 have averaged 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 151% of the median.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Dorian on July 25, 2013, when the storm reached peak intensity--sustained winds of 60 mph. Formation of early-season tropical storms like Chantal and Dorian in June and July in the deep tropics is usually a harbinger of an active Atlantic hurricane season. Image credit: NASA.

NOAA cites five main reasons to expect an active remainder of hurricane season:

1) Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are above average in the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes, from the coast of Africa to the Caribbean. As of August 9, SST were 0.4°C (0.8°F) above average.
2) Trade winds are weaker than average across the MDR, which has caused the African Monsoon to grow wetter and stronger, the amount of spin over the MDR to increase, and the amount of vertical wind shear to decrease.
3) No El Niño event is present or expected this fall.
4) There have been two early-season tropical storms in the deep tropics (Tropical Storms Chantal and Dorian), which is generally a harbinger of an above-normal season.
5) We are in an active hurricane period that began in 1995.

Colorado State predicts a much above-average hurricane season
A much above-average Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2013, according to the seasonal hurricane forecast issued August 2 by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). The CSU team is calling for 18 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 142. The forecast calls for an above-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (40% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (40% chance, 30% chance is average). The risk of a major hurricane in the Caribbean is also above average, at 53% (42% is average.)

Analogue years
The CSU team picked five previous years when atmospheric and oceanic conditions were similar to what we are seeing this year: cool neutral ENSO conditions and slightly above-average tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures. Those five years were 2008, a very active year with 16 named storms and 4 major hurricanes--Gustav, Ike, Paloma, and Omar; 2007, an active year with 15 named storms and two Category 5 storms--Dean and Felix; 1996, an above average year with 13 named storms and 6 major hurricanes--Edouard, Hortense, Fran, Bertha, Isidore, and Lili; 1966, an average year with 11 named storms and 3 major hurricanes--Inez, Alma, and Faith; and 1952, a below average year with 7 named storms and 3 major hurricanes. The average activity during these five analogue years was 12.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes, and 3.8 major hurricanes.

TSR predicts an above-average hurricane season: 14.8 named storms
The August 6 forecast for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season made by British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) calls for an active season with 14.8 named storms, 6.9 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 121. The long-term averages for the past 63 years are 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an ACE of 103. TSR rates their skill level as good for these August forecasts--47% - 59% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. TSR predicts a 58% chance that U.S. land falling activity will be above average, a 26% chance it will be near average, and a 16% chance it will be below average. They project that 4 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.8 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2012 climatology are 3.1 named storms and 1.4 hurricanes. They rate their skill at making these August forecasts for U.S. landfalls just 9% - 18% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 1.4 named storms, 0.6 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

TSR's two predictors for their statistical model are the forecast July - September trade wind speed over the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic, and the forecast August - September 2013 sea surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic. Their model is calling for warmer than average SSTs and near average trade winds during these periods, and both of these factors should act to increase hurricane and tropical storm activity.


Figure 2. Comparison of the percent improvement over climatology for May and August seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 1999-2009 (May) and 1998-2009 (August), using the Mean Squared Error. Image credit: Verification of 12 years of NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts, National Hurricane Center.


Figure 3. Comparison of the percent improvement in mean square error over climatology for seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 2003-2012, using the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS). The figure shows the results using two different climatologies: a fixed 50-year (1950 - 1999) climatology, and a 2003 - 2012 climatology. Skill is poor for forecasts issued in December and April, moderate for June forecasts, and good for August forecasts. Image credit: Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.

FSU predicts an above-average hurricane season: 15 named storms
The Florida State University (FSU) Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) issued their fifth annual Atlantic hurricane season forecast on May 30, calling for a 70% probability of 12 - 17 named storms and 5 - 10 hurricanes. The mid-point forecast is for 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of 135. The scientists use a numerical atmospheric model developed at COAPS to understand seasonal predictability of hurricane activity. The model is one of only a handful of numerical models in the world being used to study seasonal hurricane activity and is different from the statistical methods used by other seasonal hurricane forecasters such as Colorado State, TSR, and PSU (NOAA uses a hybrid statistical-dynamical model technique.) The FSU forecast has been one of the best ones over the past four years:

2009 prediction: 8 named storms, 4 hurricanes. Actual: 9 named storms, 3 hurricanes
2010 prediction: 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 12 hurricanes
2011 prediction: 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 7 hurricanes
2012 prediction: 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 10 hurricanes

Penn State predicts an above-average hurricane season: 16 named storms
A statistical model by Penn State's Michael Mann and alumnus Michael Kozar is calling for an active Atlantic hurricane season with 16 named storms, plus or minus 4 storms. Their prediction was made using statistics of how past hurricane seasons have behaved in response to sea surface temperatures (SSTs), the El Niño/La Niña oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and other factors. The statistic model assumes that in 2013 the May 0.87°C above average temperatures in the MDR will persist throughout hurricane season, the El Niño phase will be neutral to slightly warm, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will be near average.

The PSU team has been making Atlantic hurricane season forecasts since 2007, and these predictions have done pretty well, except for in 2012, when an expected El Niño did not materialize:

2007 prediction: 15 named storms, Actual: 15
2009 prediction: 12.5, named storms, Actual: 9
2010 prediction: 23 named storms, Actual: 19
2011 prediction: 16 named storms, Actual: 19
2012 prediction: 10.5 named storms, Actual: 19

UK Met Office predicts a slightly above-average hurricane season: 14 named storms
The UKMET office forecast for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, issued May 13, calls for slightly above normal activity, with 14 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and an ACE index of 130. In contrast to the statistical models relied upon by CSU, TSR, and NOAA, the UKMET model is done strictly using two dynamical global seasonal prediction systems: the Met Office GloSea5 system and ECMWF system 4. In 2012, the Met Office forecast was for 10 tropical storms and an ACE index of 90. The actual numbers were 19 named storms and an ACE index of 123.


Figure 4. Total 2013 Atlantic hurricane season activity as predicted by twelve different groups.

NOAA predicts a below-average Eastern Pacific hurricane season
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 23, calls for a below-average season, with 11 - 16 named storms, 5 - 8 hurricanes, 1 - 4 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 60% - 105% of the median. The mid-point of these ranges gives us a forecast for 13.5 named storms, 6.5 hurricanes, and 2.5 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 82% of average. The 1981 - 2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.

NOAA predicts a below-average Central Pacific hurricane season
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Central Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 22, calls for a below-average season, with 1 - 3 tropical cyclones. An average season has 4 - 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes. Hawaii is the primary land area affected by Central Pacific tropical cyclones.

West Pacific typhoon season forecast not available this year
Dr. Johnny Chan of the City University of Hong Kong usually issues a seasonal forecast of typhoon season in the Western Pacific, but did not do so in 2012 or 2013. An average typhoon season has 27 named storms and 17 typhoons. Typhoon seasons immediately following a La Niña year typically see higher levels of activity in the South China Sea, especially between months of May and July. Also, the jet stream tends to dip farther south than usual to the south of Japan, helping steer more tropical cyclones towards Japan and Korea.

Quiet in the Atlantic this weekend
There are no Atlantic threat areas to discuss today, and none of the reliable models for tropical cyclone formation is predicting development during the coming seven days. However, there are some indications that the atmosphere over the tropical Atlantic will become more conducive for tropical storm formation beginning around August 15. The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, may move into the Atlantic then, increasing tropical storm formation odds. At the same time, the computer models are indicating an increase in moisture over the tropical Atlantic, due to a series of tropical waves expected to push off of the coast of Africa. There will also be several eastward-moving Convectively-Coupled Kelvin Waves (CCKWs) traversing the Atlantic during that period. These atmospheric disturbances have a great deal of upward-moving air, which helps strengthen the updrafts of tropical disturbances. Formation of the Eastern Pacific's Hurricane Gil and Henriette were aided by CCKWs. These same CCKWs will cross into the Atlantic and increase the odds of tropical storm formation during the period August 15 - 20.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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Thank you! :D
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Invest 90S in the southern half of the Indian Ocean



Been watching this for a few days now, so glad to see it getting invest status! :)
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Quoting 1633. washingtonian115:
But as you can see it was in a moisture envelope.
Andrew in its early stages also had issues with dry air and shear from an ULL to his northwest.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 11 Comments: 7473
1637. pottery
Quoting LargoFl:
one thing on that list..oil lamps...I would never have thought of those..i bought 2 battery operated lanterns...maybe the oil lamps would last longer huh.........
It's important to buy good quality oil (lamp fuel) for those.
Kerosene is a bummer....
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I live here in Broward county, Florida. And with the POSSIBILITY of tropical threats this year, I have a gas stove, food, LOTS of water, and plywood and shutters.
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Hello GT , When does the MJO kick in ?
Member Since: July 6, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 460
1634. LargoFl
one thing on that list..oil lamps...I would never have thought of those..i bought 2 battery operated lanterns...maybe the oil lamps would last longer huh.........
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Quoting 1631. GTstormChaserCaleb:
TD 3 which later became Hurricane Bill was also surrounded by dry air.

But as you can see it was in a moisture envelope.
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1632. LargoFl
Quoting 1629. spathy:
Largo
Dont forget about pans with metal handles. Plastic handles and grills dont play well together.
YES your right there..
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TD 3 which later became Hurricane Bill was also surrounded by dry air.

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 11 Comments: 7473
1630. LargoFl
ANOTHER NIGHT OF DANGEROUS STORMS FOR TAMPA BAY REGION...................THROUGH TONIGHT...
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE
EAST/WEST COAST SEA BREEZES MERGE. GIVEN THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND DRY MID-LEVEL AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION...STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN HAZARD
WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS THAT DEVELOP. SHOULD SEE ACTIVITY END
BY 03Z SUNDAY...WITH RAIN FREE CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
INLAND AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

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Quoting 1621. Stormchaser121:

Yeah it needs to come to TX. Isnt that high in the way?? It shouldnt be able to go that far east.
Comes down to the strength of the system while the ridge is strong in the Atlantic and extends into the Gulf there is persistent mid-level troughing along the East Coast. Basically, weaker goes into Central America and if we are lucky emerges into the BOC, stronger more poleward into the GOM, cannot rule out any one landfall spot, on top of that we don't have a system yet and I think it comes down to where exactly it forms.
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1627. LargoFl
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What if you walk out one day and saw this?.Except for the saying when pigs fly how about when cows fly?.
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Texas needs an Ike sized TS :P
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1623. LargoFl
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
309 PM EDT SAT AUG 10 2013

FLZ033-037-038-101945-
FLAGLER-PUTNAM-ST. JOHNS-
309 PM EDT SAT AUG 10 2013

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHEASTERN
PUTNAM...SOUTHERN ST. JOHNS AND NORTHWESTERN FLAGLER COUNTIES FOR
EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

AT 307 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF EAST PALATKA...
MOVING NORTHWEST AT 20 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT
AREAS AROUND EAST PALATKA...SPUDS...ORANGE MILLS...HASTINGS...FEDERAL
POINT AND BOSTWICK THROUGH 345 PM EDT. EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED. POSTPONE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES PROMPTLY. GO
QUICKLY INSIDE A COMPLETELY ENCLOSED BUILDING. UNPLUG ELECTRONIC
DEVICES AND APPLIANCES AS THEY ARE SUSCEPTIBLE TO POWER SURGES AND
MAY BE DAMAGED BY NEARBY LIGHTNING STRIKES. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING
AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 2983 8175 2983 8152 2960 8139 2956 8153
TIME...MOT...LOC 1907Z 156DEG 18KT 2961 8148

$$

NELSON
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1622. pottery
Quoting TheDawnAwakening:


Well your book is wrong, there will be more storms.


Really, I have no doubt about that.
But not in August, and not as many as predicted.
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Quoting 1617. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I feel bad for Texas if this pans out all the moisture would be robbed from them, but this is the lower resolution FIM.


Yeah it needs to come to TX. Isnt that high in the way?? It shouldnt be able to go that far east.
Member Since: September 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1143
1620. LargoFl
GOT THIS FROM A HURRICANE SITE...REAL SORRY ITS SO LONG BUT ITS IMPORTANT......................................... ...
Having lived in Florida for many, many years....I've been through countless storms and hurricanes. My list will no doubt contain the same items as many, but hopefully, those in areas likely to be hit by these, can look and find maybe one thing they didn't think of before. I also break this down by categories, so you can ignore some if they don't apply.

As a rule, I recommend planning for at least TWO WEEKS without power. I actually prep for far longer, for other reasons, but based on what I've seen and known others to experience, two weeks should be a great goal.
__________________________________________________ _______

WATER - Essential, after 3 days without it, well....

Well Water - Nice if you have it, but chances are, you have an electric pump. If you do, there is a well bucket (bullet-shaped) you can get for about $45 that you can use to manually access the water.

Bottled Water - 1 gallon, per day, per person is great, but often a lot to store. We personally have rain barrels and potable water drums, but even if you are filling milk jugs and soda bottles, it's better than nothing. I recommend getting the big square containers of water from the supermarket, as they are cheaper per oz. and easy to store.

Water for Washing - Fill bathtubs, sinks, and make sure your water heater is full, just before the storm hits. Any other buckets or tubs you can fill are great to have.
__________________________________________________ _______

FOOD

Canned Food - Is great, as long as it is stuff you actually eat. Most is already cooked, you just heat and serve. Anything that doesn't even need heating is even better (like tuna, add some mayo and relish and you have tunafish).

Instant Food - Anything you just add boiling water to is great to have on hand. (dried pasta, beans, rice, etc.)

PB&J - a great standby (Peanut butter and Jelly) that doesn't require a fridge.

Freezer Food - If you have a grill, and expect the power to be out for a while, thaw and grill up some meat you have in the freezer. Better than it going bad. Eat this before you go to your canned food.

Snacks - You'll be bored. You'll want to eat. Any non-refrigerated snacks are great, cookies, crackers, chips, etc.

Babies - You know what you need in this regard. Don't forget their special needs if they are in the home.

Paper Plates, Cups, Plastic Utensils - The last thing you want to do is manual dishes.

Fridge - Limit how often you open it, and the food will keep longer. The insulation will still keep the food fresh for a while, but fridge and freezer food is the FIRST you should eat after the power is out.
__________________________________________________ _______

POWER - A generator is great, but not practical for many. Even then, knowing how to use it safely is important.

Batteries - Have lots on hand, but mostly, make sure you have the RIGHT ones for the things you'll need to power in an emergency.

Propane/Charcoal Grill - Great backup for cooking when the power is out, especially if you have one with a burner. If you don't have a gas grill, getting a small propane powered one burner is a pretty cheap investment.

Fuel - Before a storm, gas up your vehicles, (and get a spare gas can filled, if you have them). Never know when your local service stations will be back up after the storm. Remember any fuel for chainsaws and other power tools also.

Sterno - Slow, but an effective way to heat things up for cooking. (especially if you get a cheap little folding panel stove to hold it)
__________________________________________________ _______

LIGHT

Oil Lamps - I've found these to be economical, bright, and simply easy to maintain, and you can adjust the light level. Also, wall-mounted, they can be decorative (and in place already, when a storm comes)

Flashlights - A must for finding your way around the house after power goes, or if you need to go outside (and all the streetlights are out). Get brightly colored ones, as they'll be easier to find than a black maglite when you drop it.

Cap lights - I love these, a light that can go on your head (or baseball cap) is nice for keeping your hands free. Can't say how many times this has helped.

Candles - Not much light, but cheap, and kind of romantic, especially for dinner. Again, you can have these for decor too already, so already in place.

Matches/Lighters - Don't forget these!
__________________________________________________ _______

THINGS TO DO - You will be bored, so need info and distraction.

Radio - A battery powered radio is a must for storm info. They sell emergency ones that can be cranked, and even have a port for charging your cell phone! This is what we have. (also, you can use your car charger in your vehicles to keep cell phones charged up).

Cell Phone - As mentioned above, a cell phone is handy if you can keep it charged. Much better weather info, and of course games and contacting others.

Board Games - These always help, but make sure you have enough light to play.

Books, Magazines, etc. - Another good distraction.

Land Line Phone - If you have one, great, as these are generally working throughout the storms, and can be used to contact relatives, friends

Booze - I don't know of any time we've had a storm where we didn't grill some meat, drink some booze, and just party a bit just to have something to do. Not to excess mind you, but c'mon, you have to unwind.
__________________________________________________ _______

PERSONAL INFO - Be sure to have all of your info (Insurance, medical, identification, account numbers, etc., in a waterproof container and some place you can access them if needed).

Insurance Pics - Take pics and/or video of your belongings, as it will make replacing them (if you need to) so much easier, and easier to prove to insurance companies.

Cash - With electronic methods down, cash is king. Get some out before the storm.

Camera - To take photos of damage as you discover it (so you don't forget)
__________________________________________________ _______

MEDICINE - If anyone in your home takes medicine or other support (such as oxygen), try and have at least a two-week supply on hand.

First Aid Kit - You should always have this, but especially during storm season. if you buy a premade one, OPEN it, and familiarize yourself with it. Personally, I may buy them, but then add my own items I feel are missing, such as more large bandages, ointments, etc.
__________________________________________________ _______

PETS - If you have pets, consider them in your water planning. Also, have two-weeks worth of food.
__________________________________________________ _______

QUICK REPAIR & CLEANUP - I like to keep plastic sheeting, painter's tape (as it won't destroy the paint) and duct tape (for when you just need something to hold) on hand for quick fixes for any damage caused by the storm.

Chainsaw - Not essential, but damn handy
Tools - To turn off utilities before the storm hits
__________________________________________________ _______

KEEPING COOL-Battery powered fans are great, and in hurricane areas, you're going to have heat, humidity, and without AC, this is not fun. This is probably the suckiest part of dealing with the storm. Open your windows (once weather permits). Stay hydrated. Coolers with ice can really help too, if you were able to stock up before the storm. Crank the AC down before the storm hits.

This list is by no means exhaustive, but just thought I'd share my own insights and preps.



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Quoting 1610. 2ifbyC:


Sure seems like it during snow bird season!

Cause the peoples fly south on the interstate for the winter.. Our mobile home parks fill up during winter...lol

On a tropical note, nothing except for the 10% area and the FIMs still calling for a TS.
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I bought plywood and steel shutters last year. Looks like I may need to use them quite a lot this year here in south Florida.
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I feel bad for Texas if this pans out all the moisture would be robbed from them, but this is the lower resolution FIM.

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 11 Comments: 7473

Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
844 AM CDT SAT AUG 10 2013

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>10 0-111345-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPH ERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMA N-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGO MERY-LABETTE-
844 AM CDT SAT AUG 10 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERAL FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. CHECK THE LATEST WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO PRIMARILY CENTRAL KANSAS LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND
SPREAD OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY OVER THE REGION FOR THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE AND PRODUCE HEAVY

AGAIN:: I DON'T TRUST THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT AND THEIR LIES TO FURTHER AN AGENDA!!!!!!!
FROM PHONEY SCANDALS TO NOAA!!!!!!
TO MY HEALTHCARE WON'T WON'T CHANGE!

I'VE FOLLOWED THE US DROUGHT MONITOR FROM DIFFERENT PARTS OF THE COUNTRY FOR SEVERAL YEARS NOW FROM FLORIDA TO MAINE, TO CALIFORNIA, BY THE WAY IS THE MOST ACCURATE AREA OF TRUTHFUL INFORMATION.

RAIN.http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DM_state.htm?N E,HP


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Quoting 1602. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Experimental FIM-7 has a Tropical Storm hitting the Gulf Coast. Like for the past 5 days or more, yet people will blindly say this season is a bust and no more storms. Sorry but you are going to fail miserably with that prediction. Just saying.


Windshield wiper models again
Member Since: September 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1143
Quoting 1601. Camille33:
img src="">

very good video!!
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Quoting 1608. VAbeachhurricanes:
Don't like that shape...



meso vorticiity !!!!
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Quoting 1606. pottery:


Same book as me, and we seem to be on the same page too....

:):))


Well your book is wrong, there will be more storms.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 243 Comments: 3673
1610. 2ifbyC
Quoting 1592. TheDawnAwakening:


Not everyone lives in Florida.


Sure seems like it during snow bird season!
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"Sigh"
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Don't like that shape...


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1607. LargoFl
todays afternoon storms are beginning to fire up......
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1606. pottery
Quoting Socalmargie:
wow, i hear a few people on this blog in big denial about this being a very active year. From everything i have been reading and watching, conditions arent gonna change much over the next few months . So im gratfully happy that we dont have any more storms


Quoting TheDawnAwakening:



What are you reading? Are you kidding me? Conditions are gonna change, and change fast, as soon as the MJO reaches upward phase activity will jump upwards and fast. SSTs are increasing rapidly, shear is decreasing slowly as the tutt breaks down and heads northeastward out into the central North Atlantic.


Same book as me, and we seem to be on the same page too....

:):))
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1605. 62901IL
Quoting 1603. SuperStorm093:
wow!! heads up GULF COAST!
thing looks like a CAT 3 on this model

What model?
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Quoting 1560. GTstormChaserCaleb:
From Dennis Phillips Facebook page..."There's a researcher from the University of Miami who says when we get prolonged rainy periods in May or June, we have NEVER been hit by a hurricane in those years. There IS science behind that as the ridge that would pump in the moisture in the first place would also Shield Florida from storms. I don't buy it, but why not. It's as good as any other long range hurricane prediction." So really it's just a theory or hypothesis, however you want to look at it.


Yeah I remember him saying that as well. It could certainly just be a coincidence, but interesting nonetheless.
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wow!! heads up GULF COAST!
thing looks like a CAT 3 on this model
Member Since: July 31, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 925
Quoting 1575. Socalmargie:
wow, i hear a few people on this blog in big denial about this being a very active year. From everything i have been reading and watching, conditions arent gonna change much over the next few months . So im gratfully happy that we dont have any more storms
Experimental FIM-7 has a Tropical Storm hitting the Gulf Coast. Like for the past 5 days or more, yet people will blindly say this season is a bust and no more storms. Sorry but you are going to fail miserably with that prediction. Just saying.

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 11 Comments: 7473
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Member Since: July 2, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1362
Quoting 1334. opal92nwf:
Fairly similar storms, and around the same time of year.



Now I'm going to look up what type of steering was present at the time


Was stationed at Keesler AFB in Sept 1975......They were saying Eloise was coming there and it made that jog to the right and went into the Florida panhandle. Tech school was cancelled and all I remember was the rain and pretty windy.
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Quoting 1573. ricderr:
Any ideas for French doors?

it depends on how much money you want to throw at the problem.....

you can always buy french doors that are hurricane rated...both the door set up and the glass insert....ODL glass inserts would be my first choice...doors would have to be outswing...and for interior design that's usually best also as you need not worry of door swing....

next best alternative and much less expensive would be hurricane shutters....and easy and quick way to board up


You guys have all given me a lot to think about. My doors do not appear to be much more than aesthetic assets. So cover them or upgrade. If covered, plywood or accordion shutters. Plan for storage, and power loss (choice of fasteners). Okay, guess I'm not as prepared as I thought...this project moves to the top of my to-do list!
Member Since: June 26, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1817
1598. LargoFl
1921 unnamed hurricane track..whew..if this happened now omg..
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Right now no one really knows anything. Any where from Texas to Maine could get hit.

But based on the information I posted yesterday, Texas and Florida (Florida being #1) have the best chance of getting a cat 3 or higher on any given year.
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Quoting 1568. Sfloridacat5:
Dangerous heat index out there today.


Even the beach looks pretty empty (Ft. Myers Beach). Too hot to go to the beach.


Its been in the 100's every day for weeks, although the next couple days it may get higher than normal as rain chances drop in the short term.

The heat index may get into the 105 to 110 range tomorrow and Monday. In reality though, the hottest part about Florida is being in the sun. Its not uncommon to see the heat index reach 110 in parts of the deep south, although its less common in Florida.
It really only does more often over the everglades, although still not that often thanks to frequent rain.
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Quoting 1592. TheDawnAwakening:


Not everyone lives in Florida.


I know that but I was just wondering.....
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Quoting 1589. TheDawnAwakening:


It depends upon the strength of the storm, whether it's upper level steering or low level steering.

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Quoting 1585. mitchelace5:


Yeah, but it seems that a High will be protecting FL this year


Not everyone lives in Florida.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 243 Comments: 3673
Quoting 1574. clwstmchasr:


What parts of Florida are we talking about? Pensacola, Tampa, Miami? Do you have the data to show we prolonged rainy periods in May and June?
Tried doing a google search on it and no luck with that. But Dennis Phillips doesn't buy it, it's probably just a coincidence that is all. Doesn't mean this season we are safe as in any other season we stick out like a sore thumb and are equally at risk every year.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 11 Comments: 7473
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
250 PM EDT SAT AUG 10 2013

VAC036-073-095-097-101-127-199-101915-
/O.CON.KAKQ.SV.W.0088.000000T0000Z-130810T1915Z/
NEW KENT VA-KING WILLIAM VA-KING AND QUEEN VA-CHARLES CITY VA-
GLOUCESTER VA-JAMES CITY VA-YORK VA-
250 PM EDT SAT AUG 10 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
YORK...JAMES CITY...NORTHWESTERN GLOUCESTER...EAST CENTRAL CHARLES
CITY...SOUTHEASTERN KING AND QUEEN...EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KING
WILLIAM AND EASTERN NEW KENT COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

AT 249 PM EDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE
STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM WEST POINT TO
BARHAMSVILLE TO HOLDCROFT...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL
MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE DAMAGING WINDS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
SHACKLEFORDS AROUND 255 PM EDT.
TOANO AROUND 300 PM EDT.
NORGE AROUND 305 PM EDT.
GLENNS AROUND 310 PM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDE MOUNT
AIRY...DIASCUND...CLANCIE...GRESSIT...WARREN MILL...YORK RIVER STATE
PARK...CROAKER...ADNER...CENTERVILLE AND LIGHTFOOT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE ACROSS
HANOVER AND NEW KENT COUNTIES. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
SITUATION. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY
FROM WINDOWS.

PLEASE SEND YOUR REPORTS OF HAIL AND OR WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING TREES
OR LARGE LIMBS DOWNED...BY CALLING NOAA`S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN WAKEFIELD AT...1...800...7 3 7...8 6 2 4.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. DUE TO THE ROTATING NATURE OF
SUPERCELLS...THEY ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ALL TYPES OF SEVERE
WEATHER...INCLUDING LARGE HAIL...DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND
POSSIBLY TORNADOES. BE PREPARED TO ACT QUICKLY SHOULD A TORNADO
OCCUR OR A TORNADO WARNING BE ISSUED.


TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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