An Active Atlantic Hurricane Season Still Predicted by NOAA, CSU, and TSR

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:07 PM GMT on August 09, 2013

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As we stand on the cusp of the peak part of hurricane season, all of the major groups that perform long-range seasonal hurricane forecasts are still calling for an active 2013 Atlantic hurricane season. NOAA forecasts an above-normal and possibly very active Atlantic hurricane season in 2013, in their August 8 outlook. They give a 70% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of an near-normal season, and 5% chance of a below-normal season. They predict a 70% chance that there will be 13 - 19 named storms, 6 - 9 hurricanes, and 3 - 5 major hurricanes, with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 120% - 190% of the median. If we take the midpoint of these numbers, NOAA is calling for 16 named storms, 7.5 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 155% of normal. This is well above the 1981 - 2010 average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Hurricane seasons during the active hurricane period 1995 - 2012 have averaged 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 151% of the median.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Dorian on July 25, 2013, when the storm reached peak intensity--sustained winds of 60 mph. Formation of early-season tropical storms like Chantal and Dorian in June and July in the deep tropics is usually a harbinger of an active Atlantic hurricane season. Image credit: NASA.

NOAA cites five main reasons to expect an active remainder of hurricane season:

1) Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are above average in the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes, from the coast of Africa to the Caribbean. As of August 9, SST were 0.4°C (0.8°F) above average.
2) Trade winds are weaker than average across the MDR, which has caused the African Monsoon to grow wetter and stronger, the amount of spin over the MDR to increase, and the amount of vertical wind shear to decrease.
3) No El Niño event is present or expected this fall.
4) There have been two early-season tropical storms in the deep tropics (Tropical Storms Chantal and Dorian), which is generally a harbinger of an above-normal season.
5) We are in an active hurricane period that began in 1995.

Colorado State predicts a much above-average hurricane season
A much above-average Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2013, according to the seasonal hurricane forecast issued August 2 by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). The CSU team is calling for 18 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 142. The forecast calls for an above-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (40% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (40% chance, 30% chance is average). The risk of a major hurricane in the Caribbean is also above average, at 53% (42% is average.)

Analogue years
The CSU team picked five previous years when atmospheric and oceanic conditions were similar to what we are seeing this year: cool neutral ENSO conditions and slightly above-average tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures. Those five years were 2008, a very active year with 16 named storms and 4 major hurricanes--Gustav, Ike, Paloma, and Omar; 2007, an active year with 15 named storms and two Category 5 storms--Dean and Felix; 1996, an above average year with 13 named storms and 6 major hurricanes--Edouard, Hortense, Fran, Bertha, Isidore, and Lili; 1966, an average year with 11 named storms and 3 major hurricanes--Inez, Alma, and Faith; and 1952, a below average year with 7 named storms and 3 major hurricanes. The average activity during these five analogue years was 12.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes, and 3.8 major hurricanes.

TSR predicts an above-average hurricane season: 14.8 named storms
The August 6 forecast for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season made by British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) calls for an active season with 14.8 named storms, 6.9 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 121. The long-term averages for the past 63 years are 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an ACE of 103. TSR rates their skill level as good for these August forecasts--47% - 59% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. TSR predicts a 58% chance that U.S. land falling activity will be above average, a 26% chance it will be near average, and a 16% chance it will be below average. They project that 4 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.8 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2012 climatology are 3.1 named storms and 1.4 hurricanes. They rate their skill at making these August forecasts for U.S. landfalls just 9% - 18% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 1.4 named storms, 0.6 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

TSR's two predictors for their statistical model are the forecast July - September trade wind speed over the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic, and the forecast August - September 2013 sea surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic. Their model is calling for warmer than average SSTs and near average trade winds during these periods, and both of these factors should act to increase hurricane and tropical storm activity.


Figure 2. Comparison of the percent improvement over climatology for May and August seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 1999-2009 (May) and 1998-2009 (August), using the Mean Squared Error. Image credit: Verification of 12 years of NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts, National Hurricane Center.


Figure 3. Comparison of the percent improvement in mean square error over climatology for seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 2003-2012, using the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS). The figure shows the results using two different climatologies: a fixed 50-year (1950 - 1999) climatology, and a 2003 - 2012 climatology. Skill is poor for forecasts issued in December and April, moderate for June forecasts, and good for August forecasts. Image credit: Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.

FSU predicts an above-average hurricane season: 15 named storms
The Florida State University (FSU) Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) issued their fifth annual Atlantic hurricane season forecast on May 30, calling for a 70% probability of 12 - 17 named storms and 5 - 10 hurricanes. The mid-point forecast is for 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of 135. The scientists use a numerical atmospheric model developed at COAPS to understand seasonal predictability of hurricane activity. The model is one of only a handful of numerical models in the world being used to study seasonal hurricane activity and is different from the statistical methods used by other seasonal hurricane forecasters such as Colorado State, TSR, and PSU (NOAA uses a hybrid statistical-dynamical model technique.) The FSU forecast has been one of the best ones over the past four years:

2009 prediction: 8 named storms, 4 hurricanes. Actual: 9 named storms, 3 hurricanes
2010 prediction: 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 12 hurricanes
2011 prediction: 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 7 hurricanes
2012 prediction: 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 10 hurricanes

Penn State predicts an above-average hurricane season: 16 named storms
A statistical model by Penn State's Michael Mann and alumnus Michael Kozar is calling for an active Atlantic hurricane season with 16 named storms, plus or minus 4 storms. Their prediction was made using statistics of how past hurricane seasons have behaved in response to sea surface temperatures (SSTs), the El Niño/La Niña oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and other factors. The statistic model assumes that in 2013 the May 0.87°C above average temperatures in the MDR will persist throughout hurricane season, the El Niño phase will be neutral to slightly warm, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will be near average.

The PSU team has been making Atlantic hurricane season forecasts since 2007, and these predictions have done pretty well, except for in 2012, when an expected El Niño did not materialize:

2007 prediction: 15 named storms, Actual: 15
2009 prediction: 12.5, named storms, Actual: 9
2010 prediction: 23 named storms, Actual: 19
2011 prediction: 16 named storms, Actual: 19
2012 prediction: 10.5 named storms, Actual: 19

UK Met Office predicts a slightly above-average hurricane season: 14 named storms
The UKMET office forecast for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, issued May 13, calls for slightly above normal activity, with 14 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and an ACE index of 130. In contrast to the statistical models relied upon by CSU, TSR, and NOAA, the UKMET model is done strictly using two dynamical global seasonal prediction systems: the Met Office GloSea5 system and ECMWF system 4. In 2012, the Met Office forecast was for 10 tropical storms and an ACE index of 90. The actual numbers were 19 named storms and an ACE index of 123.


Figure 4. Total 2013 Atlantic hurricane season activity as predicted by twelve different groups.

NOAA predicts a below-average Eastern Pacific hurricane season
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 23, calls for a below-average season, with 11 - 16 named storms, 5 - 8 hurricanes, 1 - 4 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 60% - 105% of the median. The mid-point of these ranges gives us a forecast for 13.5 named storms, 6.5 hurricanes, and 2.5 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 82% of average. The 1981 - 2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.

NOAA predicts a below-average Central Pacific hurricane season
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Central Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 22, calls for a below-average season, with 1 - 3 tropical cyclones. An average season has 4 - 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes. Hawaii is the primary land area affected by Central Pacific tropical cyclones.

West Pacific typhoon season forecast not available this year
Dr. Johnny Chan of the City University of Hong Kong usually issues a seasonal forecast of typhoon season in the Western Pacific, but did not do so in 2012 or 2013. An average typhoon season has 27 named storms and 17 typhoons. Typhoon seasons immediately following a La Niña year typically see higher levels of activity in the South China Sea, especially between months of May and July. Also, the jet stream tends to dip farther south than usual to the south of Japan, helping steer more tropical cyclones towards Japan and Korea.

Quiet in the Atlantic this weekend
There are no Atlantic threat areas to discuss today, and none of the reliable models for tropical cyclone formation is predicting development during the coming seven days. However, there are some indications that the atmosphere over the tropical Atlantic will become more conducive for tropical storm formation beginning around August 15. The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, may move into the Atlantic then, increasing tropical storm formation odds. At the same time, the computer models are indicating an increase in moisture over the tropical Atlantic, due to a series of tropical waves expected to push off of the coast of Africa. There will also be several eastward-moving Convectively-Coupled Kelvin Waves (CCKWs) traversing the Atlantic during that period. These atmospheric disturbances have a great deal of upward-moving air, which helps strengthen the updrafts of tropical disturbances. Formation of the Eastern Pacific's Hurricane Gil and Henriette were aided by CCKWs. These same CCKWs will cross into the Atlantic and increase the odds of tropical storm formation during the period August 15 - 20.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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18z NAM
Caribbean ripe for development.
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Quoting 1653. barbamz:

Mainz/Germany goes Florida, lol. Some more impressions of summer at the banks of Rhine River, which was inundated just two months ago, at my new blog.
I have to leave for the evening and hope, everybody has a nice weekend, too.
Great stuff, barb... looks pretty much like it does here in So FL right now... lol...

Quoting 1675. ricderr:
In 7 days there might be a Tropical Storm


in 7 days i might be the powerball winner....ta da da boom!
I have more faith in the TS right now....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21487
1738. Gearsts
Nothing will develop...
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Quoting 1725. VR46L:


I really like the swirl in the central Gulf but like you say its moving too fast to be a trouble maker


Upper level feature that enhanced the rainfall over the west coast of Fl. yesterday.
It could need to stay over water (warm water) for a while to work it self down to the surface. Most models don't develop it.
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Quoting 1725. VR46L:


I really like the swirl in the central Gulf but like you say its moving too fast to be a trouble maker

The central Gulf swirl is an upper-level vortex not a surface feature...definitely looks cool but not something that would be developing into a tropical entity.

Western Gulf feature is a surface low pressure area supported by divergence caused by the split nature of the upper flow west of the upper vortex. As the upper vortex continues orbiting westward around the southern US upper ridge...so will the split upper flow and so will the surface low pressure area (thus this area will just be crashing into Mexico with no time to develop).

Eastern Gulf stuff is some loose thunderstorm clusters supported by upper divergence east of the upper vortex and maybe surface convergence of a tropical wave passing by to the south....
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Quoting 1723. TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm a bit surprised [what little upward motion associated with] the MJO hasn't been focused across the Atlantic given the MDR is 0.4C warmer relative to the global tropics.



This is a good question for Levi to answer as in his past tidbits he has mentioned that the Atlantic would have the most upward motion than the rest of the basins.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14014
With the exception of dry don't rental air from off Africa, the large low pressure system near or just east of the Cape Verde Islands is a rather large system. Wnd shear is becoming favorable across the MDR, and SSTs are getting warmer across the same region, system lacks deep centralized convection. Therefore I give this system a ten percent chance in first 48 hours and 20% chance in the next five days of development.
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Quoting 1731. KoritheMan:


LOL

:D
My favorite is "I Like To Move It, Move It" from the movie Madagascar....Such a great line-up of actors.
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18z NAM 63 hours
Not much change but some of the moisture moving northward.
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Quoting 1711. LAbonbon:


And now Kori does the Snoopy dance, extended version


LOL

:D
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Quoting 1699. GTstormChaserCaleb:
30 km. FIM-8:



OMG OMG OMG
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Quoting 1726. stpetefla:
A fantastic idea that I read somewhere (maybe here?) is to have those solar lights that you use to light walkways outside. It's not enough light to read by, but bright enough to navigate through your house (kind of like a nightlight). Just stick them outside during the day to use at night.
Been using them for years
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Quoting 1634. LargoFl:
one thing on that list..oil lamps...I would never have thought of those..i bought 2 battery operated lanterns...maybe the oil lamps would last longer huh.........
I got a little solar-powered lantern last year. While it didn't provide the kind of light one could read by, it did give general "ambience" type lighting for the duration of Sandy. And it didn't cost an additional penny for batteries or oil. Post-storm it has the advantage of being renewable at a time when other resources may not be available. In this context combination lighting is prolly most effective, though.

Quoting 1645. LAbonbon:


Lots of gas meters get damaged during hurricanes. I saw many that were damaged during Katrina. Lots of folks who had gas couldn't rely on it.
Advice on gas stoves: Secure the gas tank indoors during the duration of the storm i.e. NOT standing freely outdoors, NOT connected to the stove. Depending on the wind velocities, the tank could get gone or cause other problems.

Quoting 1648. Socalmargie:
why do people keep trying to scare people.. nothing is gonna happen
Where'd u say you were from again? How many hurricanes is it that you say you've tracked and / or experienced???

Please excuse a bunch of us if we defer to those currently more knowledgeable and experienced.

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21487
" Late in week-2, atmospheric Kelvin waves crossing the western Hemisphere along with reduced wind shear are expected to provide a more favorable environment for tropical cyclone development across the main development region (MDR) of the tropical Atlantic. This region typically begins to become more active during the latter half of August."
and
"A gradual increase in rainfall is expected across western Mexico and Central America. Anomalous low-level westerly flow from the Atlantic with its convergence across the Sahel is expected to prolong above-average rainfall across parts of western Africa. The Gulf of Guinea region is expected to experience below-average rainfall due to anomalous low-level divergence."
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A fantastic idea that I read somewhere (maybe here?) is to have those solar lights that you use to light walkways outside. It's not enough light to read by, but bright enough to navigate through your house (kind of like a nightlight). Just stick them outside during the day to use at night.
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1725. VR46L
Quoting 1715. WalkingInTheSun:


Eastern GOM & central GOM systems sort fo tie, IMO, but for different reasons. Central GOM low is moving too fast, but in more favorable situ., so even if it did soemthing, it would likely be over land too soon to get too bad.

The E GOM system looks harmless enough, but is drifting with less eagerness to reach land. That gives more time, so I'd say while not much is happening there, the time factor & moisture makes it interesting -- likely nothing happening before landfall much there, too, however.


I really like the swirl in the central Gulf but like you say its moving too fast to be a trouble maker
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NAM 18Z Low forming lower Caribbean
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I'm a bit surprised [what little upward motion associated with] the MJO hasn't been focused across the Atlantic given the MDR is 0.4C warmer relative to the global tropics.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31465
1722. LargoFl
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NAM 48 Hours - abundant moisture in the Caribeen.
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MJO making its way over here and here to stay



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Quoting 1716. Bluestorm5:
Yeah, my parents been preparing for a month now too. Mom is having hard time accepting I'm going to be 5 hours away.
I've done it for 30 years Blue.Spam and Bud Light...Ya can't go wrong
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Quoting 1708. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Well there you have it folks, all 3 FIM still showing a Tropical Storm in the Gulf. NAVGEM and CMC are onboard. The GFS has been in and out, but I think it will come around to showing development, as conditions will turn favorable later this week as the ULL moves West and allows a ridge to build over head. A weak MJO signal is also in the works as we speak.



The ridge is only going to be around in Florida through Monday. The models show the ridge rapidly retreating east by mid to late week with a deep trough sinking into the gulf coast and north Florida by Friday into Saturday. Possibly a rather wet pattern next weekend for us.
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1717. LargoFl
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Quoting 1693. washingtonian115:
Her first year :).We've been running around making sure she has everything to be prepared.She's excited and I'am for her too.
Yeah, my parents been preparing for a month now too. Mom is having hard time accepting I'm going to be 5 hours away.
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Quoting 1682. VR46L:
Which feature on the Sat image of the Gulf is the most interesting In your opinion folks

A. Western Gulf

B Central Gulf

C eastern Gulf





Eastern GOM & central GOM systems sort fo tie, IMO, but for different reasons. Central GOM low is moving too fast, but in more favorable situ., so even if it did soemthing, it would likely be over land too soon to get too bad.

The E GOM system looks harmless enough, but is drifting with less eagerness to reach land. That gives more time, so I'd say while not much is happening there, the time factor & moisture makes it interesting -- likely nothing happening before landfall much there, too, however.
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Quoting 1713. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Have a good afternoon everyone, will check in back later.
Take care GT
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Have a good afternoon everyone, will check in back later.
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Quoting 1708. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Well there you have it folks, all 3 FIM still showing a Tropical Storm in the Gulf. NAVGEM and CMC are onboard. The GFS has been in and out, but I think it will come around to showing development, as conditions will turn favorable later this week as the ULL moves West and allows a ridge to build over head. A weak MJO signal is also in the works as we speak.


Will that ridge be protecting FL?
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Quoting 1699. GTstormChaserCaleb:
30 km. FIM-8:



And now Kori does the Snoopy dance, extended version
Member Since: June 26, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1817
Quoting 1658. aislinnpaps:
Yes, it's definitely going to storm. The electric just went out for a couple of seconds. Glad I have dinner cooking now before it does hit.


Here in Lake Charles La last hour rain also, thunder as well. Cooler too. :)
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1709. LargoFl
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Well there you have it folks, all 3 FIM still showing a Tropical Storm in the Gulf. NAVGEM and CMC are onboard. The GFS has been in and out, but I think it will come around to showing development, as conditions will turn favorable later this week as the ULL moves West and allows a ridge to build over head. A weak MJO signal is also in the works as we speak.
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Quoting 1621. Stormchaser121:

Yeah it needs to come to TX. Isnt that high in the way?? It shouldnt be able to go that far east.

I would expect model runs to shift further east based on the long term trend. Most models including the ECMWF and the GFS bring a strong and deep trough into the southeast with very wet weather.

It's hard to say for sure, but naturally I would expect anything in the long term that moves into the gulf will be pulled northeast into Florida. Again, we'll see how things unfold, but if the models are correct about another deep trough moving in, I don't see why any potential tropical cyclone would move into the western gulf coast. If the models back off on the strength and progression of the trough, then maybe a western solution would actually be reasonable. However until then, the probability seems quite low.


I remember back when some models had tropical storm Andrea making landfall near Louisiana when it was still a week away from happening. I knew that wouldn't make sense with a deep trough moving into the southeast during the same time it moved up from the Caribbean.
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Quoting 1701. WalkingInTheSun:


Old rhyme from when I was a kid:
"Birdie, birdie, in the sky,
Why'd you do that in my eye?
Me be brave: me not cry -
Me just glad that cows don't fly
."

Ah, but then there's the weather. What would that do in a Cat 3 hurricane or a sharknado?
Cownado?.Cowcane?.Lot's of milk will be splattered everywhere or did that not sound right?.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16412
Quoting 1664. GTstormChaserCaleb:
In 7 days there might be a Tropical Storm and not out of the question this seasons first hurricane somewhere in the GOM:

Lower Resolution FIM-X:


I also see the CMC model is on board with something in the Gulf of Mexico towards the 150 to 180 hr forecast mark. Are teh FIM and CMC developing the currently inactive tropical wave in the mid-ocean?
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Quoting 1377. Grothar:


That was covered a couple of hours ago quite swimmingly, but that's OK, wunder. Maybe some people aren't aware of it.

I was off, so I missed this.

Quoting 1384. stoormfury:
The tropical wave just off the African cot is in an area conducive for development. At the moment the wave has a modest amount of spin ,with areal cloud convection on the increase. the disturbance is in a 15-20 knots shear environment with a small anticyclone to it's southeast. The wave will move west with a little wsw track and then a more westerly motion. It is being steered along the southern periphery of the high to it's north. The disturbance will get into a weaker shear environment when it gets to 25 west which will allow it to organize further. With the atmosphere getting more moist ahead of the system it is anticipated that this wave has a good chance to develop as it tracks further west into the central atlantic.
Sounds like a good analysis... will be interesting to see if conditions bear out the forecast.

Quoting 1395. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Unless the FIM completely drops development which I have yet to see on any of its run, I will take that over the inconsistency the GFS has shown from run to run. It just makes sense as a forecaster to look for trends and tendencies. We all know the GFS does this show development of multiple systems one run, drops it the next, and picks it back up again especially as we draw nearer to the event.
Stuff usually disappears in the 11 - 7 day range, then reappears, right? Realistically a storm tracking NW out of the C Car or W Car is rather unusual for this time of year, but not impossible. It seems very much more of a "wait and see".
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21487
Ok.......I went outside to do a perimeter check...It is so freekin' hot.... Back inside now. Watching my recording of "Pioneer Woman"
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Quoting 1682. VR46L:
Which feature on the Sat image of the Gulf is the most interesting In your opinion folks

A. Western Gulf

B Central Gulf

C eastern Gulf




The eastern one is just a convective burst. The central one is a ULL and the western one wont last past tomorrow according to the NHC.
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Quoting 1626. washingtonian115:
What if you walk out one day and saw this?.Except for the saying when pigs fly how about when cows fly?.


Old rhyme from when I was a kid:
"Birdie, birdie, in the sky,
Why'd you do that in my eye?
Me be brave: me not cry -
Me just glad that cows don't fly
."

Ah, but then there's the weather. What would that do in a Cat 3 hurricane or a sharknado?
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1700. LargoFl
west coast sea breeze is beginning here..gonna get interesting later on..........
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30 km. FIM-8:

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Quoting 1696. VR46L:


LOL !

I hope they get some decent rains ...

Me too! Im hoping like heck that western Carib storm comes to TX.
Member Since: September 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1143
Utor remains at 90kts.

WP, 11, 2013081018, , BEST, 0, 142N, 1271E, 90, 956, XX, 34, NEQ, 90, 85, 85, 90, 1005, 185, 15, 0, 0, W, 0, X, 280, 11, UTOR, D, , , , , , , TCGP EXTRA DATA, WP112013, JTWC, NCEP_TCVITALS,
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1696. VR46L
Quoting 1694. Stormchaser121:

D. Which ever one will hit TX.


LOL !

I hope they get some decent rains ...
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1695. LargoFl
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Quoting 1682. VR46L:
Which feature on the Sat image of the Gulf is the most interesting In your opinion folks

A. Western Gulf

B Central Gulf

C eastern Gulf




D. Which ever one will hit TX.
Member Since: September 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1143
Quoting 1689. Bluestorm5:
First year or returning student?
Her first year :).We've been running around making sure she has everything to be prepared.She's excited and I'am for her too.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16412
Quoting 1649. pottery:

Nasty Truths ! :):))

Pour a bucket of water into the tank, or directly down into the bowl.
Works just fine.

A couple of containers (bathtub, drums anything) of water is a must, obviously. Swimming pools are the ultimate water storage systems. But not for drinking.


...the ultimate water storage system

is a cistern
(or in my case, two cisterns)

: )

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1691. LargoFl
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Quoting 1684. LargoFl:
blob in the gulf near florida is falling apart now.....
Sure is
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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