An Active Atlantic Hurricane Season Still Predicted by NOAA, CSU, and TSR

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:07 PM GMT on August 09, 2013

Share this Blog
79
+

As we stand on the cusp of the peak part of hurricane season, all of the major groups that perform long-range seasonal hurricane forecasts are still calling for an active 2013 Atlantic hurricane season. NOAA forecasts an above-normal and possibly very active Atlantic hurricane season in 2013, in their August 8 outlook. They give a 70% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of an near-normal season, and 5% chance of a below-normal season. They predict a 70% chance that there will be 13 - 19 named storms, 6 - 9 hurricanes, and 3 - 5 major hurricanes, with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 120% - 190% of the median. If we take the midpoint of these numbers, NOAA is calling for 16 named storms, 7.5 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 155% of normal. This is well above the 1981 - 2010 average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Hurricane seasons during the active hurricane period 1995 - 2012 have averaged 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 151% of the median.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Dorian on July 25, 2013, when the storm reached peak intensity--sustained winds of 60 mph. Formation of early-season tropical storms like Chantal and Dorian in June and July in the deep tropics is usually a harbinger of an active Atlantic hurricane season. Image credit: NASA.

NOAA cites five main reasons to expect an active remainder of hurricane season:

1) Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are above average in the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes, from the coast of Africa to the Caribbean. As of August 9, SST were 0.4°C (0.8°F) above average.
2) Trade winds are weaker than average across the MDR, which has caused the African Monsoon to grow wetter and stronger, the amount of spin over the MDR to increase, and the amount of vertical wind shear to decrease.
3) No El Niño event is present or expected this fall.
4) There have been two early-season tropical storms in the deep tropics (Tropical Storms Chantal and Dorian), which is generally a harbinger of an above-normal season.
5) We are in an active hurricane period that began in 1995.

Colorado State predicts a much above-average hurricane season
A much above-average Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2013, according to the seasonal hurricane forecast issued August 2 by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). The CSU team is calling for 18 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 142. The forecast calls for an above-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (40% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (40% chance, 30% chance is average). The risk of a major hurricane in the Caribbean is also above average, at 53% (42% is average.)

Analogue years
The CSU team picked five previous years when atmospheric and oceanic conditions were similar to what we are seeing this year: cool neutral ENSO conditions and slightly above-average tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures. Those five years were 2008, a very active year with 16 named storms and 4 major hurricanes--Gustav, Ike, Paloma, and Omar; 2007, an active year with 15 named storms and two Category 5 storms--Dean and Felix; 1996, an above average year with 13 named storms and 6 major hurricanes--Edouard, Hortense, Fran, Bertha, Isidore, and Lili; 1966, an average year with 11 named storms and 3 major hurricanes--Inez, Alma, and Faith; and 1952, a below average year with 7 named storms and 3 major hurricanes. The average activity during these five analogue years was 12.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes, and 3.8 major hurricanes.

TSR predicts an above-average hurricane season: 14.8 named storms
The August 6 forecast for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season made by British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) calls for an active season with 14.8 named storms, 6.9 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 121. The long-term averages for the past 63 years are 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an ACE of 103. TSR rates their skill level as good for these August forecasts--47% - 59% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. TSR predicts a 58% chance that U.S. land falling activity will be above average, a 26% chance it will be near average, and a 16% chance it will be below average. They project that 4 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.8 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2012 climatology are 3.1 named storms and 1.4 hurricanes. They rate their skill at making these August forecasts for U.S. landfalls just 9% - 18% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 1.4 named storms, 0.6 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

TSR's two predictors for their statistical model are the forecast July - September trade wind speed over the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic, and the forecast August - September 2013 sea surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic. Their model is calling for warmer than average SSTs and near average trade winds during these periods, and both of these factors should act to increase hurricane and tropical storm activity.


Figure 2. Comparison of the percent improvement over climatology for May and August seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 1999-2009 (May) and 1998-2009 (August), using the Mean Squared Error. Image credit: Verification of 12 years of NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts, National Hurricane Center.


Figure 3. Comparison of the percent improvement in mean square error over climatology for seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 2003-2012, using the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS). The figure shows the results using two different climatologies: a fixed 50-year (1950 - 1999) climatology, and a 2003 - 2012 climatology. Skill is poor for forecasts issued in December and April, moderate for June forecasts, and good for August forecasts. Image credit: Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.

FSU predicts an above-average hurricane season: 15 named storms
The Florida State University (FSU) Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) issued their fifth annual Atlantic hurricane season forecast on May 30, calling for a 70% probability of 12 - 17 named storms and 5 - 10 hurricanes. The mid-point forecast is for 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of 135. The scientists use a numerical atmospheric model developed at COAPS to understand seasonal predictability of hurricane activity. The model is one of only a handful of numerical models in the world being used to study seasonal hurricane activity and is different from the statistical methods used by other seasonal hurricane forecasters such as Colorado State, TSR, and PSU (NOAA uses a hybrid statistical-dynamical model technique.) The FSU forecast has been one of the best ones over the past four years:

2009 prediction: 8 named storms, 4 hurricanes. Actual: 9 named storms, 3 hurricanes
2010 prediction: 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 12 hurricanes
2011 prediction: 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 7 hurricanes
2012 prediction: 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 10 hurricanes

Penn State predicts an above-average hurricane season: 16 named storms
A statistical model by Penn State's Michael Mann and alumnus Michael Kozar is calling for an active Atlantic hurricane season with 16 named storms, plus or minus 4 storms. Their prediction was made using statistics of how past hurricane seasons have behaved in response to sea surface temperatures (SSTs), the El Niño/La Niña oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and other factors. The statistic model assumes that in 2013 the May 0.87°C above average temperatures in the MDR will persist throughout hurricane season, the El Niño phase will be neutral to slightly warm, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will be near average.

The PSU team has been making Atlantic hurricane season forecasts since 2007, and these predictions have done pretty well, except for in 2012, when an expected El Niño did not materialize:

2007 prediction: 15 named storms, Actual: 15
2009 prediction: 12.5, named storms, Actual: 9
2010 prediction: 23 named storms, Actual: 19
2011 prediction: 16 named storms, Actual: 19
2012 prediction: 10.5 named storms, Actual: 19

UK Met Office predicts a slightly above-average hurricane season: 14 named storms
The UKMET office forecast for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, issued May 13, calls for slightly above normal activity, with 14 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and an ACE index of 130. In contrast to the statistical models relied upon by CSU, TSR, and NOAA, the UKMET model is done strictly using two dynamical global seasonal prediction systems: the Met Office GloSea5 system and ECMWF system 4. In 2012, the Met Office forecast was for 10 tropical storms and an ACE index of 90. The actual numbers were 19 named storms and an ACE index of 123.


Figure 4. Total 2013 Atlantic hurricane season activity as predicted by twelve different groups.

NOAA predicts a below-average Eastern Pacific hurricane season
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 23, calls for a below-average season, with 11 - 16 named storms, 5 - 8 hurricanes, 1 - 4 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 60% - 105% of the median. The mid-point of these ranges gives us a forecast for 13.5 named storms, 6.5 hurricanes, and 2.5 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 82% of average. The 1981 - 2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.

NOAA predicts a below-average Central Pacific hurricane season
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Central Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 22, calls for a below-average season, with 1 - 3 tropical cyclones. An average season has 4 - 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes. Hawaii is the primary land area affected by Central Pacific tropical cyclones.

West Pacific typhoon season forecast not available this year
Dr. Johnny Chan of the City University of Hong Kong usually issues a seasonal forecast of typhoon season in the Western Pacific, but did not do so in 2012 or 2013. An average typhoon season has 27 named storms and 17 typhoons. Typhoon seasons immediately following a La Niña year typically see higher levels of activity in the South China Sea, especially between months of May and July. Also, the jet stream tends to dip farther south than usual to the south of Japan, helping steer more tropical cyclones towards Japan and Korea.

Quiet in the Atlantic this weekend
There are no Atlantic threat areas to discuss today, and none of the reliable models for tropical cyclone formation is predicting development during the coming seven days. However, there are some indications that the atmosphere over the tropical Atlantic will become more conducive for tropical storm formation beginning around August 15. The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, may move into the Atlantic then, increasing tropical storm formation odds. At the same time, the computer models are indicating an increase in moisture over the tropical Atlantic, due to a series of tropical waves expected to push off of the coast of Africa. There will also be several eastward-moving Convectively-Coupled Kelvin Waves (CCKWs) traversing the Atlantic during that period. These atmospheric disturbances have a great deal of upward-moving air, which helps strengthen the updrafts of tropical disturbances. Formation of the Eastern Pacific's Hurricane Gil and Henriette were aided by CCKWs. These same CCKWs will cross into the Atlantic and increase the odds of tropical storm formation during the period August 15 - 20.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1840 - 1790

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50Blog Index

Quoting 1817. muddertracker:


Playa's gawn play!
oh lawdie didn't we lose that game to penn state... who's more hated now the Canes or PSU?..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1807. ncstorm:
Quoting 1826. ncstorm:
12z CMC run







Please JUST NOOOOOO.......

We really don't need that.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1838. ricderr
Why don't they like people from Florida?

haters gonna hate



what's up my brother?.....any humidity today? LMAO
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1815. washingtonian115:
Lol.With your Alligators snakes running around (mind you population still growing) hurricanes child murders and what not?.Yep sure am hating.I'm off...


sorry your state is so boring. with your bears and moose running around (mind your population still growing also) volcanoes, anarchists and what not? And its butt-cold up there. Yeah, I'd be hating Florida too if I lived next to Grizzly Adams. LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1815. washingtonian115:
Lol.With your Alligators snakes running around (mind you population still growing) hurricanes child murders and what not?.Yep sure am hating.I'm off...

When one comes around (hurricanes).I'll be up in my air conditioned house chilling and watching the news while you all panic.

I'm here for 2 reasons. My whole family lives here and about the 6-7 months of the year that are awesome weather wise.
I don't plan on panicking. I do it all ahead of hurricane season getting ready. If a cat 4 or 5 comes this a way I will shutter up and run up north to escape.
By the way I'm not sure if the DC area isn't as dangerous as south fla. There's plenty to panic about up there both weather and terror wise and we will always support it either way.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I, for one, LOVE living in Florida after growing up in New Jersey. Yes, we do show a lot of concern about tropical storms this time of year, but we also put up with listening about snow issues during the winter. Don't worry, Wash - your turn will come soon to be concerned about the weather. Just give us Floridians our time too.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
tropical wave lost all it rain and t.storms
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1826. ncstorm:
12z CMC run






You know Sar's gonna love this run - takes it right over his house
Member Since: June 26, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1917
Holy Geesus, after catching up on the blog....I feel the need for a nap! Peace and Goodwill to all!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1800. VR46L:


Maybe this might help a little

Tropical IR Hovmoller Series

Thanks for the post. The NHC also has Hovmoller diagrams on their site at this link.

I was also trying to discern tropical waves with this neat precipitable water animation at this link. I like this one because it puts things into motion over a decent time period. Some of the more "meaty" tropical waves rolling from Africa are well-defined with this tool as you can see the cyclonic twists coming in from stage right. The start of this animation shows the eastern Caribbean surface low around August 8...and another cyclonic twist passing by the Lesser Antilles on August 9 (both the E Caribbean low and 2nd cyclonic twist were on NHC TAFB maps earlier and seemed to be left behind by the t-wave that is now in the GOM). But even this tool isn't really helping me see some of the weaker tropical waves....for instance I can't really see the steady progression of our westernmost tropical wave as it lands into the GOM...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1826. ncstorm:
12z CMC run






If that comes out, it looks like a west FL threat
Member Since: July 27, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 501

...lest we forget...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1828. ricderr
Yeah your right.You CHOSE to move the Florida without my permission and blessing because I don't know you and your grown.The weather world doesn't revolve around Florida and because some people feel it does have a snobby attitude when outsiders like my self don't really care to discuss it because it has no relevance to me.You can live in Florida but I don't care to and never will.

dude...you're going to have to watch your blood pressure....your typing suggests your prone to problems...ta da da boom :-)

but more seriously.....this is a tropical weather blog and as such...florida receives the brunt of about 40 percent of all CONUS landing tropical systems...and even more at some point threaten their shoreline...regardless...most that live there...would not trade it regardless of threat of storms...

as for many of the florida residents....i'm from the old crowd...we've had the pleasure of meeting quite a few...and many others we have all commiserated over the same storms...that builds strong friendships...give yourself time and a less caustic demeanor and i hope you will enjoy the same here...

as for weather...shoot man...heat affects more and kills more each year than a decade of hurricanes...but once again...this is a tropical community and a CONUS focused one at that....i've lived in your state on whidbey island and had banana belt winds of 90 plus drop a tree and destroy my home...i now reside in el paso and just had insurance replace my roof from a hurricane force wind storm...and since most of florida is transplanted...i'm sure the bulk have also experienced serious weather non tropical related....so even though it might come across to you as there is no other state than florida....you might be over thinking that...i wish you peace

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1827. nigel20
Quoting 1821. ncstorm:


Hey Nigel, yes, it looks to be the pattern like we had for early summer..rain..rain..rain..

We would gladly take some of that rain off your hands, especially in Kingston and eastern Jamaica. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1826. ncstorm
12z CMC run




Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16225
1825. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
latest early morning update from JMA..

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #18
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON UTOR (T1311)
6:00 AM JST August 11 2013
===================================

Sea East Of The Philippines

At 21:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Utor (955 hPa) located at 14.4N 126.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 12 knots.

Storm Force Winds
===================
70 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==================
150 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS: 16.6N 122.9E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
45 HRS: 18.7N 118.7E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
69 HRS: 20.4N 114.9E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1823. Grothar
Quoting 1791. ricderr:
psst groth...i like people from florida...but i hate the ginats (spelled intentionally)


Be careful, you almost spelled something else.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1811. Skyepony:
What is an Utor?

Hades had found it..a strong squall.

OK sorry bout that. The meaning I found and placed under post 1899 was what came up when I googled "name of utor... what does it mean". It was the 2nd posting down to the google search mentioned above.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1821. ncstorm
Quoting 1814. nigel20:

Hi nc! It seems as if you'll be getting quite a bit of wet weather.


Hey Nigel, yes, it looks to be the pattern like we had for early summer..rain..rain..rain..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16225
1820. java162
Am I the only one watching the current gFS 18z run?.................... IT develops the wave just off the African coast in 24hrs
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1819. beell
Quoting 1776. NCHurricane2009:

Hmmm....it does some reasonable that a tropical wave could be there. I mean look at the long gap between the tropical wave in the Gulf of Mexico and tropical wave in the mid-ocean....its seems kinda off that their isn't a tropical wave near the Antilles marked on the map.

Sometimes the NHC TAFB maps seem "lazy" when it comes to marking tropical waves....in some cases taking a day or two to add them after they roll off of Africa. I wish I had another tool besides the TAFB maps to ID tropical waves....


No real SE/NE indication of a wind shift in the low level clouds-pretty much straight easterly, and the convection seems stationary. Might not be a wave.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1817. muddertracker:


Playa's gone play!
LOL... on that note, I think I'm going shopping.... :o)
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22736


Playa's gawn play!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1788. Stormchaser121:
This is what we need


The "perfect" storm that Texas needs!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1805. MisterPerfect:
Why don't they like people from Florida?

haters gonna hate

Lol.With your Alligators snakes running around (mind you population still growing) hurricanes child murders and what not?.Yep sure am hating.I'm off...

When one comes around (hurricanes).I'll be up in my air conditioned house chilling and watching the news while you all panic.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17860
1814. nigel20
Quoting 1807. ncstorm:

Hi nc! It seems as if you'll be getting quite a bit of wet weather.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1806. MiamiHurricanes09:
10/2032 UTC 14.5N 126.6E T5.0/5.0 UTOR -- West Pacific

UTOR looks better with every frame... I expect this to make or come very close to SuperTyphoon status by the time it gets to Luzon...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22736
1812. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #7
TYPHOON LABUYO
5:00 AM PhST August 11 2013
================================================= ==

Typhoon "LABUYO" has intensified further as it continues to threaten Luzon

At 4:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Labuyo [UTOR] (967 hPa) located at 14.3N 126.7E or 375 km east of Daet, Camarines Norte has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots gusting up to 90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots.

Signal Warnings
================

Signal Warnings #3

Luzon Region
--------------
1. Catanduanes

Signal Warnings #2

Luzon Region
-----------
1. Isabela
2. Ifugao
3. Nueva Vizcaya
4. Nueva Ecija
5. Aurora
6. Quirino
7. Polillo Is.
8. Camarines Norte
9. Camarines Sur

Signal Warning #1

Luzon Region
-----------
1. Cagayan
2. Calayan Group of Islands
3. Babuyan Group of Islands
4. Ilocos Norte
5. Ilocos Sur
6. Apayao
7. Kalinga
8. Abra
9. Mountain Province
10. Benguet
11. La Union
12. Pangasinan
13. Tarlac
14. Zambales
15. Pampanga
16. Bulacan
17. Bataan
18. Rizal
19. Quezon
20. Cavite
21. Laguna
22. Batangas
23. Marinduque
24. Albay
25. Sorsogon
26. Burias
27. Ticao Islands
28. Metro Manila

Visayas Region
-----------------
1. northern Samar

Additional Information
==========================
Estimated rainfall amount is from 7.5-25 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 600 km diameter of typhoon.

Residents in low lying and mountainous areas under signal #3,#2 & #1 are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides. Likewise, those living in coastal areas under signal #3 and #2 are alerted against storm surges.

Typhoon "Labuyo" will enhance the Southwest Monsoon which will bring moderate to occasionally heavy rains over the rest of southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao.

Sea travel is risky over the seaboards of southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM today.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1811. Skyepony (Mod)
What is an Utor?

Hades had found it..a strong squall.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 39467
Oh well steering pattern is a bad position for Florida this year anyway.I'll let nature do the talking..
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17860
1801 I doubt it :P
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1805. MisterPerfect:
Why don't they like people from Florida?

haters gonna hate



damn right
Member Since: July 27, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 501
1807. ncstorm
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16225
10/2032 UTC 14.5N 126.6E T5.0/5.0 UTOR -- West Pacific

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Why don't they like people from Florida?

haters gonna hate

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1788. Stormchaser121:
This is what we need


nop (ha!)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Vis of the GOM shows a 1013 mb low with the 10% area
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
For all the people hatin' out there... I have been laughing through the blog for the last 600 or so comments...

Great blog today... wx related, highly informative, AND funny....

lol
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22736
TropicalAnalystwx13 Patriots will win this year because of Tebow :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1800. VR46L
Quoting 1776. NCHurricane2009:

Hmmm....it does some reasonable that a tropical wave could be there. I mean look at the long gap between the tropical wave in the Gulf of Mexico and tropical wave in the mid-ocean....its seems kinda off that their isn't a tropical wave near the Antilles marked on the map.

Sometimes the NHC TAFB maps seem "lazy" when it comes to marking tropical waves....in some cases taking a day or two to add them after they roll off of Africa. I wish I had another tool besides the TAFB maps to ID tropical waves....


Maybe this might help a little

Tropical IR Hovmoller Series
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I wonder if the names we gave our storms have them (W Pac) thinking how silly they are compared to the names the give their storms ... but really Utor?.... oh my.

What is an Utor? I found this
Use, make use of
Utensil, Utility, Use/using/used, Useful/usefulness, Usual/Usually, Unusual/unusually, Usage, Useless, User, Usable, Utile, Utilize/utilization, Utilitarian/utilitarianism

Well, I guess why worry about the names when the abundance of storms and strength they have makes them more worried about the storms themselves and really no time to worry about the names. Whatever I just said..lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1796. ricderr:
I like you too, man


and i love you too man....man shoulder hug and all


I'm 18, and I've been living here in south Florida for 16 years lol
Member Since: July 27, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 501
1797. Grothar
Quoting 1790. Naga5000:


I think the blog is in the middle of an existential crisis.



Where is St. Exupery when you need him. I think I will find my own planet and plant a tree.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1796. ricderr
I like you too, man


and i love you too man....man shoulder hug and all
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1789. Grothar:
Why is everybody mad at each other? Why are people leaving. Why don't they like people from Florida? And why don't they like the NY Giants?
Why can't I answer any of these questions????

Especially the one about the Giants... not going to sleep on that one.... gotta have an answer!!!

[ahem]
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22736
Quoting 1785. ricderr:
Mmm not my fault you chose to move there.



nor did i ask your permission or blessing....if you have a hard time with responses to your posts...please put me on ignore
Yeah your right.You CHOSE to move the Florida without my permission and blessing because I don't know you and your grown.The weather world doesn't revolve around Florida and because some people feel it does have a snobby attitude when outsiders like my self don't really care to discuss it because it has no relevance to me.You can live in Florida but I don't care to and never will.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17860
Quoting 1791. ricderr:
psst groth...i like people from florida...but i hate the ginats (spelled intentionally)


I like you too, man
Member Since: July 27, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 501
Quoting 1770. panthan63:
all major forecasters call for a above average hurricane season... but not in Pacific where we have seen one storm after another. i love the way thunderstorms with strong winds are now giving a name, helping to up the 'named storms' number.
based on the preseason, i predict the NY Giants will have a losing season and the Saints will win the superbowl.
the last several years have been fairly quiet,especially in Texas. we would welcome a cat 5 if it brought rain. we need a storm like Allison.

Lol.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32877
1791. ricderr
psst groth...i like people from florida...but i hate the ginats (spelled intentionally)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1789. Grothar:
Why is everybody mad at each other? Why are people leaving. Why don't they like people from Florida? And why don't they like the NY Giants?


I think the blog is in the middle of an existential crisis.
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 3969

Viewing: 1840 - 1790

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron