An Active Atlantic Hurricane Season Still Predicted by NOAA, CSU, and TSR

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:07 PM GMT on August 09, 2013

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As we stand on the cusp of the peak part of hurricane season, all of the major groups that perform long-range seasonal hurricane forecasts are still calling for an active 2013 Atlantic hurricane season. NOAA forecasts an above-normal and possibly very active Atlantic hurricane season in 2013, in their August 8 outlook. They give a 70% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of an near-normal season, and 5% chance of a below-normal season. They predict a 70% chance that there will be 13 - 19 named storms, 6 - 9 hurricanes, and 3 - 5 major hurricanes, with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 120% - 190% of the median. If we take the midpoint of these numbers, NOAA is calling for 16 named storms, 7.5 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 155% of normal. This is well above the 1981 - 2010 average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Hurricane seasons during the active hurricane period 1995 - 2012 have averaged 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 151% of the median.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Dorian on July 25, 2013, when the storm reached peak intensity--sustained winds of 60 mph. Formation of early-season tropical storms like Chantal and Dorian in June and July in the deep tropics is usually a harbinger of an active Atlantic hurricane season. Image credit: NASA.

NOAA cites five main reasons to expect an active remainder of hurricane season:

1) Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are above average in the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes, from the coast of Africa to the Caribbean. As of August 9, SST were 0.4°C (0.8°F) above average.
2) Trade winds are weaker than average across the MDR, which has caused the African Monsoon to grow wetter and stronger, the amount of spin over the MDR to increase, and the amount of vertical wind shear to decrease.
3) No El Niño event is present or expected this fall.
4) There have been two early-season tropical storms in the deep tropics (Tropical Storms Chantal and Dorian), which is generally a harbinger of an above-normal season.
5) We are in an active hurricane period that began in 1995.

Colorado State predicts a much above-average hurricane season
A much above-average Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2013, according to the seasonal hurricane forecast issued August 2 by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). The CSU team is calling for 18 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 142. The forecast calls for an above-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (40% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (40% chance, 30% chance is average). The risk of a major hurricane in the Caribbean is also above average, at 53% (42% is average.)

Analogue years
The CSU team picked five previous years when atmospheric and oceanic conditions were similar to what we are seeing this year: cool neutral ENSO conditions and slightly above-average tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures. Those five years were 2008, a very active year with 16 named storms and 4 major hurricanes--Gustav, Ike, Paloma, and Omar; 2007, an active year with 15 named storms and two Category 5 storms--Dean and Felix; 1996, an above average year with 13 named storms and 6 major hurricanes--Edouard, Hortense, Fran, Bertha, Isidore, and Lili; 1966, an average year with 11 named storms and 3 major hurricanes--Inez, Alma, and Faith; and 1952, a below average year with 7 named storms and 3 major hurricanes. The average activity during these five analogue years was 12.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes, and 3.8 major hurricanes.

TSR predicts an above-average hurricane season: 14.8 named storms
The August 6 forecast for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season made by British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) calls for an active season with 14.8 named storms, 6.9 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 121. The long-term averages for the past 63 years are 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an ACE of 103. TSR rates their skill level as good for these August forecasts--47% - 59% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. TSR predicts a 58% chance that U.S. land falling activity will be above average, a 26% chance it will be near average, and a 16% chance it will be below average. They project that 4 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.8 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2012 climatology are 3.1 named storms and 1.4 hurricanes. They rate their skill at making these August forecasts for U.S. landfalls just 9% - 18% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 1.4 named storms, 0.6 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

TSR's two predictors for their statistical model are the forecast July - September trade wind speed over the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic, and the forecast August - September 2013 sea surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic. Their model is calling for warmer than average SSTs and near average trade winds during these periods, and both of these factors should act to increase hurricane and tropical storm activity.


Figure 2. Comparison of the percent improvement over climatology for May and August seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 1999-2009 (May) and 1998-2009 (August), using the Mean Squared Error. Image credit: Verification of 12 years of NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts, National Hurricane Center.


Figure 3. Comparison of the percent improvement in mean square error over climatology for seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 2003-2012, using the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS). The figure shows the results using two different climatologies: a fixed 50-year (1950 - 1999) climatology, and a 2003 - 2012 climatology. Skill is poor for forecasts issued in December and April, moderate for June forecasts, and good for August forecasts. Image credit: Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.

FSU predicts an above-average hurricane season: 15 named storms
The Florida State University (FSU) Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) issued their fifth annual Atlantic hurricane season forecast on May 30, calling for a 70% probability of 12 - 17 named storms and 5 - 10 hurricanes. The mid-point forecast is for 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of 135. The scientists use a numerical atmospheric model developed at COAPS to understand seasonal predictability of hurricane activity. The model is one of only a handful of numerical models in the world being used to study seasonal hurricane activity and is different from the statistical methods used by other seasonal hurricane forecasters such as Colorado State, TSR, and PSU (NOAA uses a hybrid statistical-dynamical model technique.) The FSU forecast has been one of the best ones over the past four years:

2009 prediction: 8 named storms, 4 hurricanes. Actual: 9 named storms, 3 hurricanes
2010 prediction: 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 12 hurricanes
2011 prediction: 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 7 hurricanes
2012 prediction: 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 10 hurricanes

Penn State predicts an above-average hurricane season: 16 named storms
A statistical model by Penn State's Michael Mann and alumnus Michael Kozar is calling for an active Atlantic hurricane season with 16 named storms, plus or minus 4 storms. Their prediction was made using statistics of how past hurricane seasons have behaved in response to sea surface temperatures (SSTs), the El Niño/La Niña oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and other factors. The statistic model assumes that in 2013 the May 0.87°C above average temperatures in the MDR will persist throughout hurricane season, the El Niño phase will be neutral to slightly warm, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will be near average.

The PSU team has been making Atlantic hurricane season forecasts since 2007, and these predictions have done pretty well, except for in 2012, when an expected El Niño did not materialize:

2007 prediction: 15 named storms, Actual: 15
2009 prediction: 12.5, named storms, Actual: 9
2010 prediction: 23 named storms, Actual: 19
2011 prediction: 16 named storms, Actual: 19
2012 prediction: 10.5 named storms, Actual: 19

UK Met Office predicts a slightly above-average hurricane season: 14 named storms
The UKMET office forecast for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, issued May 13, calls for slightly above normal activity, with 14 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and an ACE index of 130. In contrast to the statistical models relied upon by CSU, TSR, and NOAA, the UKMET model is done strictly using two dynamical global seasonal prediction systems: the Met Office GloSea5 system and ECMWF system 4. In 2012, the Met Office forecast was for 10 tropical storms and an ACE index of 90. The actual numbers were 19 named storms and an ACE index of 123.


Figure 4. Total 2013 Atlantic hurricane season activity as predicted by twelve different groups.

NOAA predicts a below-average Eastern Pacific hurricane season
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 23, calls for a below-average season, with 11 - 16 named storms, 5 - 8 hurricanes, 1 - 4 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 60% - 105% of the median. The mid-point of these ranges gives us a forecast for 13.5 named storms, 6.5 hurricanes, and 2.5 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 82% of average. The 1981 - 2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.

NOAA predicts a below-average Central Pacific hurricane season
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Central Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 22, calls for a below-average season, with 1 - 3 tropical cyclones. An average season has 4 - 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes. Hawaii is the primary land area affected by Central Pacific tropical cyclones.

West Pacific typhoon season forecast not available this year
Dr. Johnny Chan of the City University of Hong Kong usually issues a seasonal forecast of typhoon season in the Western Pacific, but did not do so in 2012 or 2013. An average typhoon season has 27 named storms and 17 typhoons. Typhoon seasons immediately following a La Niña year typically see higher levels of activity in the South China Sea, especially between months of May and July. Also, the jet stream tends to dip farther south than usual to the south of Japan, helping steer more tropical cyclones towards Japan and Korea.

Quiet in the Atlantic this weekend
There are no Atlantic threat areas to discuss today, and none of the reliable models for tropical cyclone formation is predicting development during the coming seven days. However, there are some indications that the atmosphere over the tropical Atlantic will become more conducive for tropical storm formation beginning around August 15. The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, may move into the Atlantic then, increasing tropical storm formation odds. At the same time, the computer models are indicating an increase in moisture over the tropical Atlantic, due to a series of tropical waves expected to push off of the coast of Africa. There will also be several eastward-moving Convectively-Coupled Kelvin Waves (CCKWs) traversing the Atlantic during that period. These atmospheric disturbances have a great deal of upward-moving air, which helps strengthen the updrafts of tropical disturbances. Formation of the Eastern Pacific's Hurricane Gil and Henriette were aided by CCKWs. These same CCKWs will cross into the Atlantic and increase the odds of tropical storm formation during the period August 15 - 20.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 1931. VR46L:


I am confused too!

I see the trough in the west ... I see A spin in the centre ( but have seen the Surface Maps @12z say its a TW but not showing now) and to the east it appears to be some showers .

12z


18z




Nigel's right.
The ULL makes it look like more than it is.
(nada at the surface)
There's a t-wave carrying showers to its west that will head into mexico.
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Quoting 1912. RTSplayer:
Well, I'm shocked that we are 1/3rd of the way through August without a TC in the Atlantic.

Some other interesting tidbits:

1, A significant Arctic sea ice rebound year is in progress, as all quantities, area, extent, and volume, are experiencing significant gains compared to the same date in each of the past several years.

2, Arctic Sea Ice Volume is nearly 2000cukm above last year, which if it holds that difference until minimum, would represent one of the largest, if not the largest, positive rebounds in the record.

3, U.S. Massive, widespread flash floods, not tropical related, during months that are normally very dry.
1) On July 31, PIOMAS Arctic sea ice volume was at 7,104 km3. On July 31 of last year, it was at 5,965 km3, a difference of just 1,139 km3. That's "nearly 2000cukm" like 55 mph is "nearly" 95 mph, or like 200 pounds is "nearly" 350 pounds.

2) It's true that area and extent are higher than they were on the same day last year. But then again, last year saw an anomalously, freakishly low amount of ice, so comparing this year's metrics with only last year's is a little unwise. The fact is, the ice is in terrible shape, and will--despite this year's maxima likely remaining higher than last year's--be gone entirely in a matter of a few short years (my guess: still no later than 2016).

3) Yes, the flooding both here in the US and around the globe is shocking. It's not all that unusual to have flooding events, of course, but it is unusual to have so many of them of such severity, and in such a diverse number of locations.
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Quoting 1916. MisterPerfect:


oh lord...wait until the Roodies (term coined for the panic artists on Dr. Rood's blog) read your comment. You've opened the global warming lid from a seemingly quiet soup kettle today...


Panic artists. That's a new one. I've posted a lot about what is going on in the Arctic, without panic, rudeness, or insults.

Quoting 1912. RTSplayer:
Well, I'm shocked that we are 1/3rd of the way through August without a TC in the Atlantic.

Some other interesting tidbits:

1, A significant Arctic sea ice rebound year is in progress, as all quantities, area, extent, and volume, are experiencing significant gains compared to the same date in each of the past several years.

2, Arctic Sea Ice Volume is nearly 2000cukm above last year, which if it holds that difference until minimum, would represent one of the largest, if not the largest, positive rebounds in the record.

3, U.S. Massive, widespread flash floods, not tropical related, during months that are normally very dry.


Volume is currently 4th lowest, 2 standard deviations from the 1979-2012 mean Link, extent is currently 5th lowest, almost 2 standard deviations from the 1981-2010 mean Link. Considering 2012 was a record setting year that blew away the previous years, I wouldn't call it a rebound. If you look at the interactive chart here Link you can see that after the previous record lowest in 2007, we had 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 with higher extent values until 2012 destroyed 2007's record. 1 year doesn't mean much, if we start to see large increases year after year, then we may be on to something.
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Quoting 1914. yoboi:



The Ice is that good???????????


well, 30% extent:



Area:



Monthly Volume:



Note that this year is the black line in the extent and area graphs. This year is the red line with the square point indicators on the volume graph.

15% extent:




Considering the most rapid part of the melt season is already past, I highly doubt any new record minimum would be set at all, and this may actually reset the whole melt scenario by a few years...
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Quoting 1923. ackee:
on average how many storm do we normally see in Aug anyone ?

you should wu mail neapolitan; he's the resident statistician.
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1934. nigel20
Quoting 1925. Tropicsweatherpr:
18z GFS has nothing that develops thru the 26th. In my many years tracking cyclones in the Atlantic I have never seen models being flip-floppers being so quiet just before the peak of the season arrives on September 10th.

Hi Tropics! Maybe 2013 will explode in late August onward just as it did 2010.
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1933. ncstorm
Quoting 1930. GeorgiaStormz:



nooooo


Sorry GS..

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Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32810
1931. VR46L
Quoting 1913. Chicklit:

Would somebody in a nutshell please explain to me what is happening in the GOM?
I read the NHC 2 p.m. Discussion and need all that low, flow and troughing boiled down.


I am confused too!

I see the trough in the west ... I see A spin in the centre ( but have seen the Surface Maps @12z say its a TW but not showing now) and to the east it appears to be some showers .

12z


18z



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Quoting 1927. ncstorm:
18z GFS precip totals up to 384 hours



nooooo
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It's been an outflow boundary war all afternoon

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1927. ncstorm
18z GFS precip totals up to 384 hours
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18z GFS has nothing that develops thru the 26th. In my many years tracking cyclones in the Atlantic I have never seen reliable models being flip-floppers being so quiet just before the peak of the season on September 10th.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14890
1924. bappit
Quoting 1913. Chicklit:


From Houston Galveston NWS discussion:

ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALL AGREE THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE AXIS WILL BE INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING...ESSENTIALLY NILLING ALL RAIN CHANCES FOR A FEW DAYS.

Yeah, the TUTT low is moving west, too. Maybe we'll get some more rain if it gets here.
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1923. ackee
on average how many storm do we normally see in Aug anyone ?
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Quoting 1917. nigel20:

I think that's an ULL in the GOM.

yay, thanks Nigel :-)
500 mb vorticity
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1921. Grothar
Quoting 1905. Stormchaser2007:
Pretty safe to say that there won't be any meaningful CATL/EATL activity for another 5-10 days.



Wow, that is some impressive animation.
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1920. nigel20
Quoting 1907. beell:


It seems as if the Caribbean will be wet for the next couple of days.
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When I saw comment 1900 quoted, I thought for a brief moment that I was being quoted, which really threw me off for a second. :P
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1918. Grothar
Quoting 1908. CanesfanatUT:


I know I read the Doc's blog in '05 because I remember watching Dennis as he moved into the Gulf and then the Doc's infamous warnings to Ray Nagin to evacuate New Awlins as Katrina was heading in. I joined 2 yrs later.


I do remember that. We should repost it someday. He even scared me. I remember the images of Katrina being posted and couldn't believe the size. Our power was still out for 5 days when Katrina hit us here and we had a generator and I would come on every few hours.
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1917. nigel20
Quoting 1913. Chicklit:

Would somebody in a nutshell please explain to me what is happening in the GOM?

I think that's an ULL in the GOM.
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Quoting 1912. RTSplayer:
Well, I'm shocked that we are 1/3rd of the way through August without a TC in the Atlantic.

Some other interesting tidbits:

1, A significant Arctic sea ice rebound year is in progress, as all quantities, area, extent, and volume, are experiencing significant gains compared to the same date in each of the past several years.

2, Arctic Sea Ice Volume is nearly 2000cukm above last year, which if it holds that difference until minimum, would represent one of the largest, if not the largest, positive rebounds in the record.

3, U.S. Massive, widespread flash floods, not tropical related, during months that are normally very dry.


oh lord...wait until the Roodies (term coined for the panic artists on Dr. Rood's blog) read your comment. You've opened the global warming lid from a seemingly quiet soup kettle today...
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Will our next storm come up from the Caribbean?


Or be a Cape Verde storm?
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9262
1914. yoboi
Quoting 1912. RTSplayer:
Well, I'm shocked that we are 1/3rd of the way through August without a TC in the Atlantic.

Some other interesting tidbits:

1, A significant Arctic sea ice rebound year is in progress, as all quantities, area, extent, and volume, are experiencing significant gains compared to the same date in each of the past several years.

2, Arctic Sea Ice Volume is nearly 2000cukm above last year, which if it holds that difference until minimum, would represent one of the largest, if not the largest, positive rebounds in the record.

3, U.S. Massive, widespread flash floods, not tropical related, during months that are normally very dry.



The Ice is that good???????????
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Quoting 1907. beell:


Would somebody in a nutshell please explain to me what is happening in the GOM?
I read the NHC 2 p.m. Discussion and need all that low, flow and troughing boiled down. (btw, this was all in one paragraph; broke it up for you)
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF NEAR 23N90W THAT CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF.

MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ALONG WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED ALONG 90W IS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 81W-92W.

WHILE THE TROPICAL WAVE IS CERTAINLY IMPACTING CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE LOWER-LEVELS...IT APPEARS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES AS THE MORE DOMINATE FEATURE.

TO THE WEST ALONG COASTAL SOUTHERN TEXAS AND COASTAL EASTERN MEXICO...A TROUGH OF LOW SURFACE PRESSURE IS ANCHORED BY A 1011 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 23N96W.

THE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 28N97W TO THE LOW CENTER THEN SE TO THE SOUTHERN MEXICO COAST NEAR 19N93W. (This is not a sentence)

WITH A SURFACE LOW IN PLACE AND THE MAXIMUM MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE SW GULF...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WEST OF A LINE FROM THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 30N94W TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 19N92W.

MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS...HOWEVER A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING INLAND OVER EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO FROM 19N-25N E OF 100W.

THE SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF IS EXPECTED TO VERY SLOWLY DRIFT WESTWARD AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH PRIMARILY E-SE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT PREVAILING OVER THE GULF THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
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Well, I'm shocked that we are 1/3rd of the way through August without a TC in the Atlantic.

Some other interesting tidbits:

1, A significant Arctic sea ice rebound year is in progress, as all quantities, area, extent, and volume, are experiencing significant gains compared to the same date in each of the past several years.

2, Arctic Sea Ice Volume is nearly 2000cukm above last year, which if it holds that difference until minimum, would represent one of the largest, if not the largest, positive rebounds in the record.

3, U.S. Massive, widespread flash floods, not tropical related, during months that are normally very dry.
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1911. Grothar
Quoting 1887. tornadodude:


Charley back in 04 was my first, but with me being 13 at the time, I wasn't allowed (parents) to make an account, but I could read all I wanted. I joined in 2006.



We never forget our first. I remember when you first came on. I think the only people you ever spoke to was Skye, ProgressivePulse and guygee. You were such a nice shy little kid..... What happened????

(You have to admit, we did have a lot of laughs back then)
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1910. beell
Quoting 1906. nrtiwlnvragn:


Currently at 62W. WPC Caribbean Desk also shows one in that area:




Good enough. Weak for sure. ADDED: t-storms unrelated. I will defer to the pro's.
Thanks.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16920
1909. Grothar
Quoting 1901. CybrTeddy:


Grothar we'd never yell at you! Not unless your first post was proclaiming without evidence that the season/storm is a bust! ;)


I have never mentioned a bust since I have been on this blog.
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Quoting 1885. Grothar:


I didn't join until 2009, but I had been on here since 2005. I was afraid to actually write on the blog because someone might yell at me and start an argument. Fortunately that has never happened. Everyone has been so nice. I think Katrina was my first one.


I know I read the Doc's blog in '05 because I remember watching Dennis as he moved into the Gulf and then the Doc's infamous warnings to Ray Nagin to evacuate New Awlins as Katrina was heading in. I joined 2 yrs later.
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1907. beell

Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16920
Quoting 1902. beell:
Or is it currently at 62W, nrt?


Currently at 62W. WPC Caribbean Desk also shows one in that area:


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Pretty safe to say that there won't be any meaningful CATL/EATL activity for another 5-10 days.

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1904. nigel20
Quoting 1900. Grothar:


I remember the night when you first posted. You introduced yourself and we all thought you were so polite. And you know what, you still are.

Thanks much, Grothar!
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First visible image of Utor.

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1902. beell
Or is it currently at 62W, nrt?
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16920
Quoting 1885. Grothar:


I didn't join until 2009, but I had been on here since 2005. I was afraid to actually write on the blog because someone might yell at me and start an argument. Fortunately that has never happened. Everyone has been so nice. I think Katrina was my first one.


Grothar we'd never yell at you! Not unless your first post was proclaiming without evidence that the season/storm is a bust! ;)
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
1900. Grothar
Quoting 1893. nigel20:

I've been using the blog since 2007, but I didn't join until late 2010.

This was one of the first blog post that I read: Can Jamaica pray away Hurricane Dean?


I remember the night when you first posted. You introduced yourself and we all thought you were so polite. And you know what, you still are.
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1899. beell
Quoting 1883. nrtiwlnvragn:
Wally called it a weak tropical wave in the Marine Weather Discussion


VERY WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 62W MOVE W THROUGH WED WITH NO SIGNIFICANT SUSTAINED WIND OR SEA HEIGHT IMPACT...BUT SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MODERATE CONVECTION WHICH MAY BRIEFLY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS.


That would at least explain the "gap" in the typical spacing of TW's-one that moved through on Wednesday.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16920
ADT algorithm was finally able to locate a center and not depend on the forecasted track for analysis.


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1897. VR46L
Quoting 1881. Chicklit:


Upper level moisture is looking good BUTin Mid and lower level, looks rather dry and that as far as I am aware is where Dry air and SAL does damage

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Utor is clearing its eye out.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32810
Quoting 1890. CatfishJones:
Aren't you setting the bar a bit low?


Hey now, have you gone back and read today's comments? ;)
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1893. nigel20
Quoting 1885. Grothar:


I didn't join until 2009, but I had been on here since 2005. I was afraid to actually write on the blog because someone might yell at me and start an argument. Fortunately that has never happened. Everyone has been so nice. I think Katrina was my first one.

I've been using the blog since 2007, but I didn't join until late 2010.

This was one of the first blog post that I read: Can Jamaica pray away Hurricane Dean?
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Later for Utor!!! Let's go, Atlantic Basin!!!
We're number one... We're number one!!!!!
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I have a story from work. I am fairly well known at the different offices I have worked at as being an amateur weather nut. A guy I worked with up in VA recently sent me a presentation from the "tropics manager" from a private forecast firm that my company uses as its offishul weather forecast firm. (The company uses their fcsts to base operational decisions rather than NOAA and I vehemently disagree with that based on the crap I have seen them spew but that's not my point.)

This presentation was an update to management on the 2013 tropical conditions. It was quite a few slides. What struck me very quickly was that ALL of the data/graphs/charts are available for free online. I saw nothing proprietary that this firm had created. I mean for Christ sakes they had charts from Levi's site! Plus "the chart".

I seriously had a good laugh. I could have put the same thing together as this guy had in my spare time and it would have been free to my employer. I can't imagine how much money they are paying this firm but it has to be a ton.

Anyway your graphs were cited, Levi, so they weren't stolen or whatever. If you want more info then PM me.

(No they didn't refer to the season as a bust like some of you have...)
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Quoting 1879. Grothar:


Naga should win this one. Anyone who can spell existential deserves a little recognition.
Aren't you setting the bar a bit low?
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron