An Active Atlantic Hurricane Season Still Predicted by NOAA, CSU, and TSR

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:07 PM GMT on August 09, 2013

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As we stand on the cusp of the peak part of hurricane season, all of the major groups that perform long-range seasonal hurricane forecasts are still calling for an active 2013 Atlantic hurricane season. NOAA forecasts an above-normal and possibly very active Atlantic hurricane season in 2013, in their August 8 outlook. They give a 70% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of an near-normal season, and 5% chance of a below-normal season. They predict a 70% chance that there will be 13 - 19 named storms, 6 - 9 hurricanes, and 3 - 5 major hurricanes, with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 120% - 190% of the median. If we take the midpoint of these numbers, NOAA is calling for 16 named storms, 7.5 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 155% of normal. This is well above the 1981 - 2010 average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Hurricane seasons during the active hurricane period 1995 - 2012 have averaged 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 151% of the median.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Dorian on July 25, 2013, when the storm reached peak intensity--sustained winds of 60 mph. Formation of early-season tropical storms like Chantal and Dorian in June and July in the deep tropics is usually a harbinger of an active Atlantic hurricane season. Image credit: NASA.

NOAA cites five main reasons to expect an active remainder of hurricane season:

1) Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are above average in the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes, from the coast of Africa to the Caribbean. As of August 9, SST were 0.4°C (0.8°F) above average.
2) Trade winds are weaker than average across the MDR, which has caused the African Monsoon to grow wetter and stronger, the amount of spin over the MDR to increase, and the amount of vertical wind shear to decrease.
3) No El Niño event is present or expected this fall.
4) There have been two early-season tropical storms in the deep tropics (Tropical Storms Chantal and Dorian), which is generally a harbinger of an above-normal season.
5) We are in an active hurricane period that began in 1995.

Colorado State predicts a much above-average hurricane season
A much above-average Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2013, according to the seasonal hurricane forecast issued August 2 by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). The CSU team is calling for 18 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 142. The forecast calls for an above-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (40% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (40% chance, 30% chance is average). The risk of a major hurricane in the Caribbean is also above average, at 53% (42% is average.)

Analogue years
The CSU team picked five previous years when atmospheric and oceanic conditions were similar to what we are seeing this year: cool neutral ENSO conditions and slightly above-average tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures. Those five years were 2008, a very active year with 16 named storms and 4 major hurricanes--Gustav, Ike, Paloma, and Omar; 2007, an active year with 15 named storms and two Category 5 storms--Dean and Felix; 1996, an above average year with 13 named storms and 6 major hurricanes--Edouard, Hortense, Fran, Bertha, Isidore, and Lili; 1966, an average year with 11 named storms and 3 major hurricanes--Inez, Alma, and Faith; and 1952, a below average year with 7 named storms and 3 major hurricanes. The average activity during these five analogue years was 12.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes, and 3.8 major hurricanes.

TSR predicts an above-average hurricane season: 14.8 named storms
The August 6 forecast for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season made by British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) calls for an active season with 14.8 named storms, 6.9 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 121. The long-term averages for the past 63 years are 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an ACE of 103. TSR rates their skill level as good for these August forecasts--47% - 59% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. TSR predicts a 58% chance that U.S. land falling activity will be above average, a 26% chance it will be near average, and a 16% chance it will be below average. They project that 4 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.8 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2012 climatology are 3.1 named storms and 1.4 hurricanes. They rate their skill at making these August forecasts for U.S. landfalls just 9% - 18% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 1.4 named storms, 0.6 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

TSR's two predictors for their statistical model are the forecast July - September trade wind speed over the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic, and the forecast August - September 2013 sea surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic. Their model is calling for warmer than average SSTs and near average trade winds during these periods, and both of these factors should act to increase hurricane and tropical storm activity.


Figure 2. Comparison of the percent improvement over climatology for May and August seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 1999-2009 (May) and 1998-2009 (August), using the Mean Squared Error. Image credit: Verification of 12 years of NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts, National Hurricane Center.


Figure 3. Comparison of the percent improvement in mean square error over climatology for seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 2003-2012, using the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS). The figure shows the results using two different climatologies: a fixed 50-year (1950 - 1999) climatology, and a 2003 - 2012 climatology. Skill is poor for forecasts issued in December and April, moderate for June forecasts, and good for August forecasts. Image credit: Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.

FSU predicts an above-average hurricane season: 15 named storms
The Florida State University (FSU) Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) issued their fifth annual Atlantic hurricane season forecast on May 30, calling for a 70% probability of 12 - 17 named storms and 5 - 10 hurricanes. The mid-point forecast is for 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of 135. The scientists use a numerical atmospheric model developed at COAPS to understand seasonal predictability of hurricane activity. The model is one of only a handful of numerical models in the world being used to study seasonal hurricane activity and is different from the statistical methods used by other seasonal hurricane forecasters such as Colorado State, TSR, and PSU (NOAA uses a hybrid statistical-dynamical model technique.) The FSU forecast has been one of the best ones over the past four years:

2009 prediction: 8 named storms, 4 hurricanes. Actual: 9 named storms, 3 hurricanes
2010 prediction: 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 12 hurricanes
2011 prediction: 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 7 hurricanes
2012 prediction: 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 10 hurricanes

Penn State predicts an above-average hurricane season: 16 named storms
A statistical model by Penn State's Michael Mann and alumnus Michael Kozar is calling for an active Atlantic hurricane season with 16 named storms, plus or minus 4 storms. Their prediction was made using statistics of how past hurricane seasons have behaved in response to sea surface temperatures (SSTs), the El Niño/La Niña oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and other factors. The statistic model assumes that in 2013 the May 0.87°C above average temperatures in the MDR will persist throughout hurricane season, the El Niño phase will be neutral to slightly warm, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will be near average.

The PSU team has been making Atlantic hurricane season forecasts since 2007, and these predictions have done pretty well, except for in 2012, when an expected El Niño did not materialize:

2007 prediction: 15 named storms, Actual: 15
2009 prediction: 12.5, named storms, Actual: 9
2010 prediction: 23 named storms, Actual: 19
2011 prediction: 16 named storms, Actual: 19
2012 prediction: 10.5 named storms, Actual: 19

UK Met Office predicts a slightly above-average hurricane season: 14 named storms
The UKMET office forecast for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, issued May 13, calls for slightly above normal activity, with 14 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and an ACE index of 130. In contrast to the statistical models relied upon by CSU, TSR, and NOAA, the UKMET model is done strictly using two dynamical global seasonal prediction systems: the Met Office GloSea5 system and ECMWF system 4. In 2012, the Met Office forecast was for 10 tropical storms and an ACE index of 90. The actual numbers were 19 named storms and an ACE index of 123.


Figure 4. Total 2013 Atlantic hurricane season activity as predicted by twelve different groups.

NOAA predicts a below-average Eastern Pacific hurricane season
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 23, calls for a below-average season, with 11 - 16 named storms, 5 - 8 hurricanes, 1 - 4 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 60% - 105% of the median. The mid-point of these ranges gives us a forecast for 13.5 named storms, 6.5 hurricanes, and 2.5 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 82% of average. The 1981 - 2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.

NOAA predicts a below-average Central Pacific hurricane season
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Central Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 22, calls for a below-average season, with 1 - 3 tropical cyclones. An average season has 4 - 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes. Hawaii is the primary land area affected by Central Pacific tropical cyclones.

West Pacific typhoon season forecast not available this year
Dr. Johnny Chan of the City University of Hong Kong usually issues a seasonal forecast of typhoon season in the Western Pacific, but did not do so in 2012 or 2013. An average typhoon season has 27 named storms and 17 typhoons. Typhoon seasons immediately following a La Niña year typically see higher levels of activity in the South China Sea, especially between months of May and July. Also, the jet stream tends to dip farther south than usual to the south of Japan, helping steer more tropical cyclones towards Japan and Korea.

Quiet in the Atlantic this weekend
There are no Atlantic threat areas to discuss today, and none of the reliable models for tropical cyclone formation is predicting development during the coming seven days. However, there are some indications that the atmosphere over the tropical Atlantic will become more conducive for tropical storm formation beginning around August 15. The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, may move into the Atlantic then, increasing tropical storm formation odds. At the same time, the computer models are indicating an increase in moisture over the tropical Atlantic, due to a series of tropical waves expected to push off of the coast of Africa. There will also be several eastward-moving Convectively-Coupled Kelvin Waves (CCKWs) traversing the Atlantic during that period. These atmospheric disturbances have a great deal of upward-moving air, which helps strengthen the updrafts of tropical disturbances. Formation of the Eastern Pacific's Hurricane Gil and Henriette were aided by CCKWs. These same CCKWs will cross into the Atlantic and increase the odds of tropical storm formation during the period August 15 - 20.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 1988. nrtiwlnvragn:


Don't know, I was going to look at that but can't find that website in my links that you can do the custom analysis of the data. Too many links, forget what the name means on some of them. LOL

ESRL's monthly composites possibly?

Daily composites, if so.
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Quoting 1977. Tribucanes:


Only if you ignore all the science, all the climate scientists, all visible signs and extremes, pretend CO2 is lessening, are incapable or unwilling to study the overwhelming scientific evidence, pretend the oceans are lessening and that the Arctic Ocean won't be ice free by 2020 at the latest, and are so partial and arrogant to think you have more knowledge than virtually all the climate scientists; then sure, it could be the end of AGW.


Tribucanes, while I think your points are valid, I've got to speak up a bit for Yoboi. He's been asking lots of questions, both here, and in Rood's blog, regarding AGW. It's difficult for some people who haven't been trained as a scientist, or in the scientific method and peer review process, to fully grasp first those concepts, and then the sheer magnitude and intricacies that is the problem of AGW. Yoboi doesn't give up, though, and keeps asking his questions. I've got to give credit where it's due, and to me, he's shown tenacity in trying to understand the issues that so many others dismiss as either insurmountable, or worse, as fallacy.
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Quoting 1983. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Drier than average 700mb relative humidity values maybe?


Don't know, I was going to look at that but can't find that website in my links that you can do the custom analysis of the data. Too many links, forget what the name means on some of them. LOL
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Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14226
Quoting 1944. Doppler22:
Darn, the Orioles lost. Oh well. It looks like it'll be a nice few days ahead. I will be visiting the Natural Bridge in Virginia... Any body ever been there?


Yeah in the 90's. camped there
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Quoting 1978. nrtiwlnvragn:


GFS or it's ensemble has been forecasting the MJO to move into phases 1 and 8 for a month and it has not.

LOL well a month has past and now it starting to move toward that(not directly) but still making it move towards it
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Quoting 1963. nrtiwlnvragn:
Tell Me Why



A lack of moisture at 700mb (partly due to a shunted ITCZ relative to the tropical Atlantic) maybe?
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1982. bwi
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you mean can we just keep doing what we're doing and expect different results? aka 'burn baby burn'
anyway, nothing happening for a bit so going to read.
adios amigos!
glad texas is getting at least some blob action tonight.
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Quoting 1978. nrtiwlnvragn:


GFS or it's ensemble has been forecasting the MJO to move into phases 1 and 8 for a month and it has not.


And is only a weak signal.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14226
Quoting 1973. Tropicsweatherpr:
Nothing more in next five days.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT AUG 10 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND
OVER EASTERN MEXICO ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR
0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


I think NHC may change that by Mon night or Tue early morn
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Quoting 1972. wunderkidcayman:


GFS or it's ensemble has been forecasting the MJO to move into phases 1 and 8 for a month and it has not.
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Quoting 1952. yoboi:



If we keep gaining ice does that end AGW?????????


Only if you ignore all the science, all the climate scientists, all visible signs and extremes, pretend CO2 is lessening, are incapable or unwilling to study the overwhelming scientific evidence, pretend the oceans are lessening and that the Arctic Ocean won't be ice free by 2020 at the latest, and are so partial and arrogant to think you have more knowledge than virtually all the climate scientists; then sure, it could be the end of AGW.
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT AUG 10 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 1100 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE THIS SYSTEM REMAINS
POORLY ORGANIZED...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE
THE LOW MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

2. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1400 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII IS PRODUCING LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO
OCCUR DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND 10
MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?COD E=ETWO

FORECASTER BRENNAN
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prolly cuz of this...

the dry air has to clear out before something can get going...at least in the mdr
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Nothing more in next five days.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT AUG 10 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND
OVER EASTERN MEXICO ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR
0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Quoting 1961. VR46L:


Nigel is right about the ULL but the TW is now disappeared from the surface map ..but was under it most of the day If you look at the RGB loop it was visible upto the last couple of frames well to my eye ..


We'll get another NHC report in the Tropical Discussion at 8 p.m.
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Quoting 1968. mitchelace5:


So we may be looking at things firing up possibly early this coming week?

it can already be seen in the Caribbean and GOM but yeah more as the days go by
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Quoting 1968. mitchelace5:


So we may be looking at things firing up possibly early this coming week?
Where counting on it or this will be one lonely blog.
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Quoting 1967. wunderkidcayman:

Its making its way into the atlantic/caribbean basin


So we may be looking at things firing up possibly early this coming week?
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Quoting 1960. mitchelace5:
Anyone know where the MJO is currently?

Its making its way into the atlantic/caribbean basin
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Quoting 1960. mitchelace5:
Anyone know where the MJO is currently?



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1965. ackee
Quoting 1947. Neapolitan:
From the NHC's climatology page:

climo
Thanks
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Quoting 1944. Doppler22:
Darn, the Orioles lost. Oh well. It looks like it'll be a nice few days ahead. I will be visiting the Natural Bridge in Virginia... Any body ever been there?


Never been, always wanted to. Camden Yards is one of my favorite ballparks, though.
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Tell Me Why


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Quoting 1947. Neapolitan:
From the NHC's climatology page:

climo
So we're ahead in numbers but behind in hurricanes.
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1961. VR46L
Quoting 1940. Chicklit:

Nigel's right.
The ULL makes it look like more than it is.
(nada at the surface)
There's a t-wave carrying showers to its west that will head into mexico.


Nigel is right about the ULL but the TW is now disappeared from the surface map ..but was under it most of the day If you look at the RGB loop it was visible upto the last couple of frames well to my eye ..

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Anyone know where the MJO is currently?
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Quoting 1946. LAbonbon:


Does that mean the cold snap over the northern US could be ending?
Not just yet--though more mid-South than northern. meanwhile, the western deserts are expecting another round of widespread triple-digit temps, while Alaska continues its unprecedentedly warm summer:

chooltd
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Quoting 1931. VR46L:


I am confused too!

I see the trough in the west ... I see A spin in the centre ( but have seen the Surface Maps @12z say its a TW but not showing now) and to the east it appears to be some showers .

12z


18z




Basically the weather in the GOM has been controlled by an upper vortex that has made its way westward around the southern US upper ridge. West of our upper vortex...the upper winds are northerly. South of the upper ridge the upper winds are easterly. The upper northerly and easterly winds are in divergence with respect to each other...and the upper divergence supports suface pressure drops (resulting in that western Gulf surface low/trough).

In the meantime it looks like the tropical wave has merged with the surface low/trough in the western Gulf as of 1800Z.
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1957. beell
Quoting 1949. Chicklit:

so you are saying no blobs or no blobs of current significance?


Some lovely blobs here if you're lucky enough to be under one of them (i am).

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1956. ncstorm
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1955. Grothar
Quoting 1949. Chicklit:

so you are saying no blobs or no blobs of current significance?


Not a decent blob in sight.
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Quoting 1952. yoboi:



If we keep gaining ice does that end AGW?????????


Since we look at climate in terms of over 30 years, we would have to look at this over long periods of time, but sea ice is just one way to look at AGW as it's a natural thermometer. We would also need to see land and ocean temperature stop rising and a decrease in atmospheric in CO2. What we are seeing here in teh Arctic seems to be nothing more than natural regional variation.
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So I don't like what I see on the 18Z GFS- so we can discount that run now.
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1952. yoboi
Quoting 1938. Naga5000:


Panic artists. That's a new one. I've posted a lot about what is going on in the Arctic, without panic, rudeness, or insults.



Volume is currently 4th lowest, 2 standard deviations from the 1979-2012 mean Link, extent is currently 5th lowest, almost 2 standard deviations from the 1981-2010 mean Link. Considering 2012 was a record setting year that blew away the previous years, I wouldn't call it a rebound. If you look at the interactive chart here Link you can see that after the previous record lowest in 2007, we had 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 with higher extent values until 2012 destroyed 2007's record. 1 year doesn't mean much, if we start to see large increases year after year, then we may be on to something.



If we keep gaining ice does that end AGW?????????
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So no TC activity this coming week?
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Quoting 1943. Grothar:
Nothing impressive with these waves. I think the season is ..........just getting started.



Big mess moving into the islands.





so you are saying no blobs or no blobs of current significance?
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1948. ncstorm
NWS, Wilmington, NC..

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...THE SUMMER THAT "HASN`T" WILL STILL NOT
OCCUR DURING THE EXTENDED
...WITH COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ONCE
AGAIN DEVELOPING OVER THE CAROLINAS.

LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL LOWER THICKNESSES ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
BEGINNING TUESDAY...WITH THE STRONGEST VORT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT CROSSING SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WHILE MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST DURING
WEDNESDAY WITH THE STRONGEST DIVING VORT...PREDOMINANT MID-LEVEL
FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SW THANKS TO THE TROUGH AXIS
STAYING JUST WEST OF THE AREA. THIS KEEPS MOIST FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF
THE COLUMN...AND PWATS RISE TO OVER TWO INCHES MOST OF THE
PERIOD...APPROACHING 2.3 INCHES ON WEDNESDAY JUST AHEAD OF FROPA.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAY WITH RICH THETA-E RIDGING
INTERACTING WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND RRQ OF AN 80 KT 300MB JET
STREAK...PROVIDING AMPLE FORCING AND MOISTURE FOR WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION. THIS FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY BEFORE
FINALLY CROSSING SOUTH OF THE CWA THURSDAY. AS FLOW BECOMES MORE
BOUNDARY PARALLEL AGAIN...IT WILL STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
FRIDAY...KEEPING UNSETTLED WEATHER ONGOING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...ALTHOUGH WITH DECREASING COVERAGE EACH DAY. BY
SATURDAY...WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY PUSHING IT BACK
TO THE NORTH...AND RENEWED WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE.

TEMPS WILL BEGIN NEAR CLIMO TUESDAY...BUT FALL THROUGH THE WEEK
BECOMING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMO THU/FRI/SAT. MEX/ECE NUMBERS
ARE ALREADY 4-6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS...AND THESE ARE BEING
SOMEWHAT IMPACTED BY CLIMO...SO EXPECT A VERY COOL END OF THE WEEK
PERIOD. LOWS WILL INITIALLY BE WELL ABOVE THANKS TO CLOUDS AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW...BUT WILL DROP TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW CLIMO BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.
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Quoting 1923. ackee:
on average how many storm do we normally see in Aug anyone ?
From the NHC's climatology page:

climo
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Quoting 1926. iloveweather15:
jet stream going back to the north!!


Does that mean the cold snap over the northern US could be ending?
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Quoting 1943. Grothar:
Nothing impressive with these waves. I think the season is ..........just getting started.



Big mess moving into the islands.






Our friend CaribBoy should be happy with the rain he will get on Sunday with this wave.
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Darn, the Orioles lost. Oh well. It looks like it'll be a nice few days ahead. I will be visiting the Natural Bridge in Virginia... Any body ever been there?
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1943. Grothar
Nothing impressive with these waves. I think the season is ..........just getting started.



Big mess moving into the islands.




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Quoting 1934. nigel20:

Hi Tropics! Maybe 2013 will explode in late August onward just has it did 2010.


Hi nigel. Yes about that. Maybe we have a record September thru October big burst of activity. Time will tell.
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Quoting 1923. ackee:
on average how many storm do we normally see in Aug anyone ?

Four.
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Quoting 1931. VR46L:


I am confused too!

I see the trough in the west ... I see A spin in the centre ( but have seen the Surface Maps @12z say its a TW but not showing now) and to the east it appears to be some showers .

12z


18z




Nigel's right.
The ULL makes it look like more than it is.
(nada at the surface)
There's a t-wave carrying showers to its west that will head into mexico.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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