Hurricanes and Climate Change: Huge Dangers, Huge Unknowns

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:57 AM GMT on August 05, 2013

Share this Blog
74
+

Hurricane Sandy's enormous $65 billion price tag put that great storm in third place for the most expensive weather-related disaster in U.S. (and world) history, and six of the ten most expensive U.S. weather-related disasters since 1980 have been hurricanes. Thus, how the strongest hurricanes may be affected due a changing climate is a topic of critical concern. Since hurricanes are heat engines that extract heat energy from the oceans to power themselves, hurricane scientists are confident that the very strongest storms will get stronger by the end of the century, when Earth's land and ocean temperatures are expected to warm 2 - 3°C, to levels unmatched since the Eemian Era, 115,000 years ago. Computer modeling work consistently indicates that greenhouse warming will cause the globally averaged intensity of tropical cyclones to shift towards stronger storms, with intensity increases of 2–11% by 2100. But hurricanes are fussy creations, and are sensitive to wind shear and dry air. Although the strongest storms should get stronger when "perfect storm" conditions are present, these "perfect storm" conditions may become less frequent in the future, due to the presence of higher wind shear, altered atmospheric circulation patterns, or more dry air at mid levels of the atmosphere. Indeed, the climate models used to formulate the 2007 IPCC report suggested that we might see the strongest hurricanes getting stronger, but a decrease in the total number of hurricanes in the Atlantic (and worldwide) later this century. However, the latest set of models used to formulate the 2013 IPCC report left open the possibility that we might see in increase in the total number of hurricanes, and and increase in their intensity. Given the conflicting model results, we really don't know how global warming will affect the number of hurricanes and their intensity, but we run the risk of making one of humanity's greatest scourges worse.


Figure 1. The list of most expensive U.S. weather-related disasters since 1980 is dominated by hurricanes.

Climate models and hurricane frequency
The database we have on historical hurricanes does not extend far enough into the past and is not of high enough quality to make many judgements on how human-caused climate change may be affecting these great storms. A landmark 2010 review paper, "Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change", authored by ten top hurricane scientists concluded that the U.S. has not seen any long-term increase in landfalling tropical storms and hurricanes, and that "it remains uncertain whether past changes in tropical cyclone activity have exceeded the variability expected from natural causes" (tropical cyclone is the generic term which encompasses tropical depressions, tropical storms, hurricanes, and typhoons.) Based in part on modeling studies using climate models run for the 2007 IPCC report, the scientists concluded that "it is likely that global mean tropical cyclone frequency will either decrease or remain unchanged owing to greenhouse warming." For example, one of the modeling studies the review paper quoted, Knutson et al. (2008), "Simulated reduction in Atlantic hurricane frequency under twenty-first-century warming conditions", projected a decrease in Atlantic tropical storms by 27% and hurricanes by 18% by the end of the century. An important reason that their model predicted these decreases was due to a predicted increase in wind shear. As I explain in my wind shear tutorial, a large change of wind speed with height over a hurricane creates a shearing force that tends to tear the storm apart. The amount of wind shear is critical in determining whether a hurricane can form or survive.

But a July 2013 study by MIT's Dr. Kerry Emanuel, "Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century", challenged this result. Dr. Emanuel argued that tropical cyclones are likely to become both stronger and more frequent as the climate continues to warm. This increase is most likely to occur in Western North Pacific, with smaller increases in the Atlantic. Dr. Emanuel took output from six newer higher-resolution climate models used to formulate the 2013 IPCC report, and used the output to drive a high-resolution hurricane model. The simulations found that the global frequency of tropical cyclones would increase by 11% to 40% by 2100, with intensity increases as well. The combined effects produced a global increase in Category 3 and stronger hurricanes of 40%. The behavior of these strongest hurricanes is critical, since they do most of the damage we observe. Over the past century, Category 3 - 5 hurricanes accounted for 85% of US hurricane damage, despite representing only 24% of U.S. landfalling storms. Category 4 and 5 hurricanes made up only 6% of all U.S. landfalls, but accounted for 48% of all U.S. damage (if normalized to account for increases in U.S. population and wealth, see Pielke et al., 2008.)


Figure 2. Projected changes in tropical cyclone track density during the 2006-2100 period compared to the 1950-2005 period, using output from six climate models included in the 2013 IPCC report. The global frequency of tropical cyclones is predicted to increase by 11% to 40%, with the largest changes occurring in the Northwest Pacific off the coast of Japan. Smaller increases are predicted for the Atlantic and near Australia. Image credit: Kerry Emanuel, "Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century", Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, July 8, 2013, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1301293110.

However, a study by Knutson et al. (2013), using the same latest-generation climate models as used by Emanuel (2013), but using the output from the models to drive a different high-resolution hurricane model, found a 20% decrease in Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes by 2100. Two other 2013 studies by Villarini et al. and Camargo, also using output from the 2013 IPCC models, found essentially no change in Atlantic tropical cyclones. The reason for the differences, lies, in part, with how much global warming is assumed in the studies. Dr. Emanuel's study, which found an increase in tropical cyclone activity, assumed a worst-case warming situation (RCP 8.5), following the "business as usual" emissions path humanity is currently on. The Knutson et al. study, which found a decrease of 20% in Atlantic tropical cyclones, used a scenario (RCP 4.5) where it was assumed humans will wise up and cause about half of the worst-case greenhouse warming. The study found found "marginally significant" increases in Atlantic Category 4 and 5 hurricanes of 39% - 45% by 2100. These dramatically different results give credence to Dr. Emanuel statement at the end of his paper, "the response of tropical cyclones to projected climate change will remain uncertain for some time to come." The 2013 IPCC report also emphasized the high amount of uncertainty in how climate change might affect hurricanes, stating that there was "low confidence" that we have observed any increases in intense tropical cyclones due to human causes. However, since the 1970s, it is virtually certain (99 - 100% chance) that the frequency and intensity of hurricanes and tropical storms in the North Atlantic has increased, and there is medium confidence that a reduction in small air pollution particles (aerosols) over the North Atlantic caused part of this effect. The report's forecast for the future stated that it is "more likely than not" (50 - 100% chance) that human-caused climate change will cause a substantial increase in intense tropical cyclones in some ocean basins by 2100, with the Western North Pacific and Atlantic being at particular risk. Also, there will likely (66 - 100% chance) be an increase in both global mean tropical cyclone maximum wind speed and rain rates by 2100, and more likely than not (50 - 100% chance) that the increase in the most intense tropical cyclones will be larger than 10% in some basins.


Figure 3. Expected change in Atlantic Category 4 and 5 hurricanes per decade expected by the year 2100, according to Knutson et al. (2013), "Dynamical Downscaling Projections of 21st Century Atlantic Hurricane Activity: CMIP3 and CMIP5 Model-based Scenarios." This research used the latest generation of climate models from the 2013 IPCC report, and found "marginally significant" increases in Atlantic Category 4 and 5 hurricanes of 39% - 45% by 2100.

Commentary
Hurricane damages are currently doubling every ten years without the effect of climate change, according to Pielke et al., 2008. This is primarily due to the increasing population along the coast and increased wealth of the population. The authors theorize that the Great Miami Hurricane of 1926, a Category 4 monster that made a direct hit on Miami Beach, would have caused about $150 billion in damage had it hit in 2005. Thus, by 2015, the same hurricane would do $300 billion in damage, and $600 billion by 2025. This is without considering the impact that accelerating sea level rise will have on storm surge damages. Global sea level rise over the past decade has been about double what it was in the 20th century, and the rate of sea level rise is expected to increase further in the coming decades. Storm surge does the majority of damage in major hurricanes, and storm surges riding on top of higher sea levels are going to do a lot more damage in the coming decades. If we toss in the (controversial) increases in Category 3 and stronger storms like Dr. Emanuel suggests may occur, the hurricane damage math gets very impressive. We can also add onto that the relatively non-controversial increase in tropical cyclone rainfall of 20% expected by 2100, which will sharply increase damages due to fresh water river flooding. It is controversial whether or not we are already be seeing an increase in heavy precipitation events associated with tropical cyclones in the U.S., though. The total number of daily rainfall events exceeding 2" associated with tropical cyclones in the Southeast U.S. on a century time scale has not changed significantly, according to Groisman et al., 2004. But a 2010 study by Kunkel et al., "Recent increases in U.S. heavy precipitation associated with tropical cyclones", found that the number of Southeast U.S. tropical cyclone heavy precipitation events, defined as 1-in-5-year events, more than doubled between 1994 - 2008, compared to the long-term average from 1895 - 2008.


Figure 4. Time series of the 15-year running average (plotted at the end point of the 15-yr blocks) of a Tropical Cyclone Heavy Precipitation Index (red) and 15-year running average of U.S. landfalling hurricanes (blue). Note that there has been no long-term increase in U.S. landfalling hurricanes, but there has been a sharp increase in extreme rainfall events associated with landfalling tropical cyclones--the kind of rainfall events most likely to cause damaging flooding. Image credit: Kunkel et al. (2010), "Recent increases in U.S. heavy precipitation associated with tropical cyclones", Geophysical Research Letters.

It is essential that we limit coastal development in vulnerable coastal areas, particularly along barrier islands, to reduce some of the astronomical price tags hurricanes are going to be causing in the future. Adoption and enforcement of strict building standards is also a must, as well as more reforms to the government's National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), which subsidizes development in high-risk coastal regions that private insurers won't touch. NFIP is now $25 - 30 billion in the red, thanks to Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Sandy. Reform of NFIP is already underway. In 2012, before Sandy hit, Congress passed the Biggert-Waters Flood Insurance Reform Act, which requires people with NFIP policies to pay large premium increases of about 25% per year over the next five years. Naturally, this move has caused major controversy.

References
Camargo, S., (2013), "Global and regional aspects of tropical cyclone activity in the CMIP5 models," J. Climate.

Emanuel, K.A., 2013, "Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century", PNAS, July 8, 2013, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1301293110

Groisman, Pavel Ya, et al., "Contemporary changes of the hydrological cycle over the contiguous United States: Trends derived from in situ observations," Journal of Hydrometeorology 5.1 (2004): 64-85.

Knutson et al., 2010, "Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change", Nature Geoscience 3, 157 - 163, Published online: 21 February 2010 | doi:10.1038/ngeo779

Knutson et al., 2013, Dynamical Downscaling Projections of 21st Century Atlantic Hurricane Activity: CMIP3 and CMIP5 Model-based Scenarios, Journal of Climate 2013 ; e-View
doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00539.1

Pielke, R.A, et al., 2008, "Normalized Hurricane Damage in the United States: 1900 - 2005," Natural Hazards Review, DOI:10.1061/ASCE1527-6988(2008)9:1(29)

Villarini, G, and G.A. Vecchi, 2012, "Twenty-first-century projections of North Atlantic tropical storms from CMIP5 models," Nature Clim. Change 2:604–607.

Related posts
Global warming and the frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes: model results, my 2010 blog post.

Climate Central's analysis of the new 2013 Kerry Emanuel paper.

Goodbye, Miami: Jeff Goodell's sobering 2013 article in Rolling Stone on the challenges Miami faces due to sea level rise and hurricanes.


What the official climate assessments say about climate change and hurricanes
The 2013 IPCC report gives “low confidence”--a 20% chance--that we have observed a human-caused increase in intense hurricanes in some parts of the world. This is a reduction in odds from the 2007 report, which said that it was more likely than not (greater than 50% chance.) The IPCC likely took note of a landmark 2010 review paper, "Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change", authored by ten top hurricane scientists, which concluded that the U.S. had not seen any long-term increase in landfalling tropical storms and hurricanes, and that "it remains uncertain whether past changes in tropical cyclone activity have exceeded the variability expected from natural causes." The 2013 IPCC report predicts that there is a greater than 50% chance (more likely than not) that we will see a human-caused increase in intense hurricanes by 2100 in some regions; this is also a reduction from the 2007 report, which said this would be likely (66% chance or higher.)

The May 2014 United States National Climate Assessment found that “The intensity, frequency, and duration of North Atlantic hurricanes, as well as the frequency of the strongest (Category 4 and 5) hurricanes, have all increased since the early 1980s. The relative contributions of human and natural causes to these increases are still uncertain. Hurricane-associated storm intensity and rainfall rates are projected to increase as the climate continues to warm.”

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 2569 - 2519

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52Blog Index

2569. philhoey
1:23 PM GMT on August 08, 2013
This year there appears to be a significantly higher concentration of aerosols, specifically dust from the Sahara suppressing formation of major storms. Based on patterns from previous years this season should be well in to formation of storms in the middle Atlantic area. Potential storm formation is much closer to the Lesser Antilles. The Gulf is ripe and there is the potential for formation over those very warm waters. However, there would be less time over water for a major storm to get ‘cranked’ up to a Katrina sized event.
Believe me, I am not complaining over the lack of activity. However, we still have three weeks left in August with all of September and October to get through.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 56
2568. mitchelace5
1:07 AM GMT on August 08, 2013
Quoting CaneHunter031472:
MJO will reach an optimal position in the caribean in about two to three weeks. I predict thinhs to start getting pretty active then. SAL should have significantly subsided by then as well. Thre should be a few Cape Verdes forming during that period and I would not be surprised if we also see some SW Caribean formation.


Will shear also go down?
Member Since: July 27, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 501
2567. CaneHunter031472
1:41 PM GMT on August 07, 2013
MJO will reach an optimal position in the caribean in about two to three weeks. I predict thinhs to start getting pretty active then. SAL should have significantly subsided by then as well. Thre should be a few Cape Verdes forming during that period and I would not be surprised if we also see some SW Caribean formation.
Member Since: August 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 182
2566. 69Viking
1:19 PM GMT on August 07, 2013
Quoting 2540. taco2me61:

That will be the one that will be on top of us later today and evening :o(

Taco :o)


Taco where you located?
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 3055
2565. mitthbevnuruodo
1:09 PM GMT on August 07, 2013
Quoting 2542. Neapolitan:
Oh, my. You--and, apparently, a few others--may want to stop throwing around the insults long enough to brush up on your comprehension skills. Go back and re-read my comment #2501, and you'll see that in no place did I mention this forum, this blog, or this website. I specifically referred to "people"--and, as you may be aware, that label includes hundreds of millions who've never been here, or even heard of this place.

Glad I could clear that up. If you've any other questions, let me know; after all, I'm here for you. ;-)


I thought you were talking about them getting bombarded via the social networks etc, and not that you thought they looked at this blog. Just sayin'.

I reckon they do care somewhat what their followers in twit and FB think, any professional does...but yes, doubt it's anything too dear. I bet they joke about a lot of posts and messages they get though!
Member Since: October 12, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 845
2564. java162
1:08 PM GMT on August 07, 2013




pretty wet here in dominica...
Member Since: July 24, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 301
2563. MTWX
1:08 PM GMT on August 07, 2013
Quoting 2421. SunriseSteeda:


Ha ha, yes that would be a record-breaker wouldn't it? (Since most move around 30mph, up to 70+)

So far, I can only find a record of 73mph.

Significant Tornadoes 1680–1991: A Chronology and Analysis of Events. St. Johnsbury, VT: The Tornado Project of Environmental Films. ISBN 1-879362-03-1.



That is storm speed not tornado speed...

I've seen storm velocities higher than that, esspecially during Derecho events or the large well developed squall lines down south in the spring.
Member Since: July 20, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1393
2562. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
1:05 PM GMT on August 07, 2013
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
2560. mikatnight
1:03 PM GMT on August 07, 2013
Good Morning!

7:25 am (11:25 GMT)

Looking east on Ocean Avenue towards the new bridge (still under construction) in Lantana, Florida.

No rain here for the first time in 6 days, but I see it keeps on raining in Broward County. Talk about leaving the water running, somebody better call a plumber!



Dexter's Weather Report for Wednesday, August 7th...

Dex would also like to take this time to remind everyone to make sure they're prepared for the expected upcoming spike in tropical cyclone activity, and that Palm Beach County residents in particular should download the smartphone app, 'PBC DART' (iTunes or Android).
And in case you missed it the first 20 times...

HURRICANE PROTOCOL



HURRICANE AWARENESS


Hurricane Preparedness - Wunderground

Tropical Cyclone Preparedness Guide - NHC (pdf)

Hurricane Preparedness 2013 - Palm Beach County

Storm 2013 - PB Post
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
2559. GeorgiaStormz
1:03 PM GMT on August 07, 2013
I would laugh if we didnt get a TS till late august and 1 or 2 in september and october and ended with numbers like 7-1-0

I don't know what'll happen though.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9731
2557. 19N81W
1:00 PM GMT on August 07, 2013
Quoting 2551. SouthernIllinois:

Tropics are quiet. I'm a happy girl Tampa. Oh and did I mention I am going to get 2-4" of rain. Life is good Tim!!


Lucky you guys...we live in the tropics and its hot and dry and dusty....thats why everyone leaves here in the summer...
Member Since: August 24, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 424
2556. hurricanes2018
1:00 PM GMT on August 07, 2013
12z Best Track for Henriette at 75kts.

EP, 08, 2013080712, , BEST, 0, 160N, 1345W, 75, 983, HU

winds down to 80 mph
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 27 Comments: 52304
2554. hurricanes2018
12:59 PM GMT on August 07, 2013
here the new tropical wave in the picture with a spin!
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 27 Comments: 52304
2553. Tropicsweatherpr
12:58 PM GMT on August 07, 2013
12z Best Track for Henriette at 75kts.

EP, 08, 2013080712, , BEST, 0, 160N, 1345W, 75, 983, HU
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14315
2552. VR46L
12:58 PM GMT on August 07, 2013
Quoting 2545. Grothar:


OK. OK. You saw it first!!!!!! :)



(I saw you mention it earlier)


I can't claim ownership , someone else saw it yesterday...:)
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6927
2550. taco2me61
12:58 PM GMT on August 07, 2013
Quoting 2543. 69Viking:


It just keeps coming down. 50% chance of rain again today, wonder what time it will get here this time.

I would say anytime between 3 & 5 this evening is best guess anyway

Taco :o)
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 3261
2549. 69Viking
12:56 PM GMT on August 07, 2013
Quoting 2536. SouthernIllinois:

EXACTLY. Up here the more clay loam soil are more common with the hardpans (claypan, fragipan) in some places (lower water table as a result) so flooding can be more of an issue.


You need a good soaking rain over serveral days. An inch or so a day for about 3 or 4 days would do you good!
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 3055
2548. bwi
12:55 PM GMT on August 07, 2013
Most interesting storm of the day in my opinion (image from Environment Canada by way of Neven's Sea Ice blog:
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1385
2547. biff4ugo
12:55 PM GMT on August 07, 2013
Not so cloudy today with index near 100. Good chance to see the Delta 4 launch at 8:59 tonight.

An old snake wrangler I knew used to say use moth balls with naphtha to get a snake out from under places you can't get to. What he didn't say was how angry the snake was going to be when it came out.
Member Since: December 28, 2006 Posts: 114 Comments: 1578
2546. TampaSpin
12:54 PM GMT on August 07, 2013
WOW.....August 7th and really hard to say where even an INVEST might occur...best look might be the that little thingy entering the Caribbean. Maybe one off Africa. MODELS don't like much of anything.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
2545. Grothar
12:51 PM GMT on August 07, 2013
Quoting 2541. VR46L:


Yeah I noticed it this morning .. Nicely lifting away form the ITCZ but still be protected by its moisture but no surface low on the Maps yet



OK. OK. You saw it first!!!!!! :)



(I saw you mention it earlier)
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26472
2544. TampaSpin
12:50 PM GMT on August 07, 2013
Quoting 2538. Grothar:
Now that is a good blob. Domestic BlobCon 1.



WOW...that is a lot of rain....NOTHING Tornadic it appears....Funny as bad as that looks...but its those SUPER CELLS that are the ones that get really bad.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
2543. 69Viking
12:50 PM GMT on August 07, 2013
Quoting 2514. VR46L:


I have heard how much you guys in te west part of the Panhandle is getting .. Its like it never ending thunder and rain :( Its even worse than my neck of the woods


It just keeps coming down. 50% chance of rain again today, wonder what time it will get here this time.
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 3055
2542. Neapolitan
12:46 PM GMT on August 07, 2013
Quoting 2519. StormTrackerScott:


No, they issue a 0% to let people know they are watching it for further development beyond 48 hours. To think the NHC cares of what is said about them on this blog by a bunch amateurs is kind of immature on your part.
Oh, my. You--and, apparently, a few others--may want to stop throwing around the insults long enough to brush up on your comprehension skills. Go back and re-read my comment #2501, and you'll see that in no place did I mention this forum, this blog, or this website. I specifically referred to "people"--and, as you may be aware, that label includes hundreds of millions who've never been here, or even heard of this place.

Glad I could clear that up. If you've any other questions, let me know; after all, I'm here for you. ;-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13551
2541. VR46L
12:45 PM GMT on August 07, 2013
Quoting 2537. Grothar:



The other wave in the middle of the Atlantic is the one I have been watching closely. I think I will write the NHC and let them know about it.



Yeah I noticed it this morning .. Nicely lifting away form the ITCZ but still be protected by its moisture but no surface low on the Maps yet

Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6927
2540. taco2me61
12:44 PM GMT on August 07, 2013
Quoting 2538. Grothar:
Now that is a good blob. Domestic BlobCon 1.


That will be the one that will be on top of us later today and evening :o(

Taco :o)
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 3261
2539. Tazmanian
12:43 PM GMT on August 07, 2013
Quoting 2537. Grothar:



The other wave in the middle of the Atlantic is the one I have been watching closely. I think I will write the NHC and let them know about it.


lol WU mail me later and went me no what they say
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115235
2538. Grothar
12:42 PM GMT on August 07, 2013
Now that is a good blob. Domestic BlobCon 1.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26472
2537. Grothar
12:38 PM GMT on August 07, 2013



The other wave in the middle of the Atlantic is the one I have been watching closely. I think I will write the NHC and let them know about it.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26472
2535. 69Viking
12:33 PM GMT on August 07, 2013
Quoting 2509. SouthernIllinois:

No that is true Viking. I live on a ridge with the land I work on but I do know others in the Hosmer/Cypress soil types who would flood with that kind of rain. It is a very poorly drained soil. I must achieve a happy median!! :)


The only reason we're not under water completely here is because Florida is so sandy and the soil drains well. Rivers in the area have remained at or just over flood stage for the past month but no major flooding has occurred thankfully.
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 3055
2533. taco2me61
12:30 PM GMT on August 07, 2013
Quoting 2530. SouthernIllinois:
Took the 4 wheeler to the barn, checked the rain gauge...up to .83" OH MAN!!!!

Just keep it up there , like foreal :O)
We have had enough here on the North Gulf Coast :o)

Taco :o)
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 3261
2531. StormTrackerScott
12:29 PM GMT on August 07, 2013
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 3294
2529. StormTrackerScott
12:25 PM GMT on August 07, 2013
Get to meet Flo rida today as he stopping by later this morning. Getting that "Good Feeling"!

Link
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 3294
2528. VR46L
12:24 PM GMT on August 07, 2013
Quoting 2519. StormTrackerScott:


No, they issue a 0% to let people know they are watching it for further development beyond 48 hours. To think the NHC cares of what is said about them on this blog by a bunch amateurs is kind of immature on your part.


I would be worried if they did care ....


Yeah its kind of their way to say we are keeping an eye on it ..
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6927
2526. barbamz
12:22 PM GMT on August 07, 2013
Good morning!

Video coverage: Storms Drop Damaging Hail on Twin Cities
Updated: 08/07/2013 6:55 AM

Band after band of severe weather hit the metro Tuesday night, bringing hail, heavy downpours, and gusty winds.

The storms left scattered damage across the metro, including flooding, broken windows and downed trees.

Xcel Energy says over 44,000 customers from St. Cloud through the Twin Cities area were without power around 9 p.m. Most of the outages were centered in the Bloomington, Richfield, Edina and South Minneapolis areas. Xcel has restored power to about 25,000 of those customers so far. ...


Pigs burn in huge lightning storm
The Local, published: 7 Aug 2013 08:40 CET
Massive storms hit east and southern Germany on Tuesday night causing widespread damage. The lightning also hit a farm killing 250 piglets.

And here is the TPW, showing the wave entering the Caribbean:

Click to enlarge
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 55 Comments: 6018
2525. VR46L
12:21 PM GMT on August 07, 2013
Quoting 2510. nrtiwlnvragn:


They get questions in email and on their faceslapbook page.


LOL faceslapbook .

If I were the NHC staff I would stay away from weather sites ... Ya would get a complex ... why is this not named, all these amateurs mets criticizing the NHC ...
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6927
2523. weathermanwannabe
12:20 PM GMT on August 07, 2013
Back to my coffee..........See Yall later.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9220
2520. hurricanes2018
12:19 PM GMT on August 07, 2013
Quoting 2507. StormTrackerScott:
FYI The 0Z Euro takes this wave in the eastern Caribbean and moves it over FL in 8 days. Makes perfect sense as there is a strong trough digging toward the Gulf in 7 to 8 days.

very bad weather model Euro
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 27 Comments: 52304
2519. StormTrackerScott
12:17 PM GMT on August 07, 2013
Quoting 2501. Neapolitan:
Because if they don't, they get bombarded by people asking, "What's wrong with the NHC?! Why aren't they watching that swirl by the Windward Islands?! Are they asleep?!?! WAKE UP, GUYS!!!!!!!!!!!!!"

Or something like that. ;-)


No, they issue a 0% to let people know they are watching it for further development beyond 48 hours. To think the NHC cares of what is said about them on this blog by a bunch amateurs is kind of immature on your part.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 3294

Viewing: 2569 - 2519

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Mostly Cloudy
66 °F
Mostly Cloudy