Hurricanes and Climate Change: Huge Dangers, Huge Unknowns

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:57 AM GMT on August 05, 2013

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Hurricane Sandy's enormous $65 billion price tag put that great storm in third place for the most expensive weather-related disaster in U.S. (and world) history, and six of the ten most expensive U.S. weather-related disasters since 1980 have been hurricanes. Thus, how the strongest hurricanes may be affected due a changing climate is a topic of critical concern. Since hurricanes are heat engines that extract heat energy from the oceans to power themselves, hurricane scientists are confident that the very strongest storms will get stronger by the end of the century, when Earth's land and ocean temperatures are expected to warm 2 - 3°C, to levels unmatched since the Eemian Era, 115,000 years ago. Computer modeling work consistently indicates that greenhouse warming will cause the globally averaged intensity of tropical cyclones to shift towards stronger storms, with intensity increases of 2–11% by 2100. But hurricanes are fussy creations, and are sensitive to wind shear and dry air. Although the strongest storms should get stronger when "perfect storm" conditions are present, these "perfect storm" conditions may become less frequent in the future, due to the presence of higher wind shear, altered atmospheric circulation patterns, or more dry air at mid levels of the atmosphere. Indeed, the climate models used to formulate the 2007 IPCC report suggested that we might see the strongest hurricanes getting stronger, but a decrease in the total number of hurricanes in the Atlantic (and worldwide) later this century. However, the latest set of models used to formulate the 2013 IPCC report left open the possibility that we might see in increase in the total number of hurricanes, and and increase in their intensity. Given the conflicting model results, we really don't know how global warming will affect the number of hurricanes and their intensity, but we run the risk of making one of humanity's greatest scourges worse.


Figure 1. The list of most expensive U.S. weather-related disasters since 1980 is dominated by hurricanes.

Climate models and hurricane frequency
The database we have on historical hurricanes does not extend far enough into the past and is not of high enough quality to make many judgements on how human-caused climate change may be affecting these great storms. A landmark 2010 review paper, "Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change", authored by ten top hurricane scientists concluded that the U.S. has not seen any long-term increase in landfalling tropical storms and hurricanes, and that "it remains uncertain whether past changes in tropical cyclone activity have exceeded the variability expected from natural causes" (tropical cyclone is the generic term which encompasses tropical depressions, tropical storms, hurricanes, and typhoons.) Based in part on modeling studies using climate models run for the 2007 IPCC report, the scientists concluded that "it is likely that global mean tropical cyclone frequency will either decrease or remain unchanged owing to greenhouse warming." For example, one of the modeling studies the review paper quoted, Knutson et al. (2008), "Simulated reduction in Atlantic hurricane frequency under twenty-first-century warming conditions", projected a decrease in Atlantic tropical storms by 27% and hurricanes by 18% by the end of the century. An important reason that their model predicted these decreases was due to a predicted increase in wind shear. As I explain in my wind shear tutorial, a large change of wind speed with height over a hurricane creates a shearing force that tends to tear the storm apart. The amount of wind shear is critical in determining whether a hurricane can form or survive.

But a July 2013 study by MIT's Dr. Kerry Emanuel, "Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century", challenged this result. Dr. Emanuel argued that tropical cyclones are likely to become both stronger and more frequent as the climate continues to warm. This increase is most likely to occur in Western North Pacific, with smaller increases in the Atlantic. Dr. Emanuel took output from six newer higher-resolution climate models used to formulate the 2013 IPCC report, and used the output to drive a high-resolution hurricane model. The simulations found that the global frequency of tropical cyclones would increase by 11% to 40% by 2100, with intensity increases as well. The combined effects produced a global increase in Category 3 and stronger hurricanes of 40%. The behavior of these strongest hurricanes is critical, since they do most of the damage we observe. Over the past century, Category 3 - 5 hurricanes accounted for 85% of US hurricane damage, despite representing only 24% of U.S. landfalling storms. Category 4 and 5 hurricanes made up only 6% of all U.S. landfalls, but accounted for 48% of all U.S. damage (if normalized to account for increases in U.S. population and wealth, see Pielke et al., 2008.)


Figure 2. Projected changes in tropical cyclone track density during the 2006-2100 period compared to the 1950-2005 period, using output from six climate models included in the 2013 IPCC report. The global frequency of tropical cyclones is predicted to increase by 11% to 40%, with the largest changes occurring in the Northwest Pacific off the coast of Japan. Smaller increases are predicted for the Atlantic and near Australia. Image credit: Kerry Emanuel, "Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century", Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, July 8, 2013, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1301293110.

However, a study by Knutson et al. (2013), using the same latest-generation climate models as used by Emanuel (2013), but using the output from the models to drive a different high-resolution hurricane model, found a 20% decrease in Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes by 2100. Two other 2013 studies by Villarini et al. and Camargo, also using output from the 2013 IPCC models, found essentially no change in Atlantic tropical cyclones. The reason for the differences, lies, in part, with how much global warming is assumed in the studies. Dr. Emanuel's study, which found an increase in tropical cyclone activity, assumed a worst-case warming situation (RCP 8.5), following the "business as usual" emissions path humanity is currently on. The Knutson et al. study, which found a decrease of 20% in Atlantic tropical cyclones, used a scenario (RCP 4.5) where it was assumed humans will wise up and cause about half of the worst-case greenhouse warming. The study found found "marginally significant" increases in Atlantic Category 4 and 5 hurricanes of 39% - 45% by 2100. These dramatically different results give credence to Dr. Emanuel statement at the end of his paper, "the response of tropical cyclones to projected climate change will remain uncertain for some time to come." The 2013 IPCC report also emphasized the high amount of uncertainty in how climate change might affect hurricanes, stating that there was "low confidence" that we have observed any increases in intense tropical cyclones due to human causes. However, since the 1970s, it is virtually certain (99 - 100% chance) that the frequency and intensity of hurricanes and tropical storms in the North Atlantic has increased, and there is medium confidence that a reduction in small air pollution particles (aerosols) over the North Atlantic caused part of this effect. The report's forecast for the future stated that it is "more likely than not" (50 - 100% chance) that human-caused climate change will cause a substantial increase in intense tropical cyclones in some ocean basins by 2100, with the Western North Pacific and Atlantic being at particular risk. Also, there will likely (66 - 100% chance) be an increase in both global mean tropical cyclone maximum wind speed and rain rates by 2100, and more likely than not (50 - 100% chance) that the increase in the most intense tropical cyclones will be larger than 10% in some basins.


Figure 3. Expected change in Atlantic Category 4 and 5 hurricanes per decade expected by the year 2100, according to Knutson et al. (2013), "Dynamical Downscaling Projections of 21st Century Atlantic Hurricane Activity: CMIP3 and CMIP5 Model-based Scenarios." This research used the latest generation of climate models from the 2013 IPCC report, and found "marginally significant" increases in Atlantic Category 4 and 5 hurricanes of 39% - 45% by 2100.

Commentary
Hurricane damages are currently doubling every ten years without the effect of climate change, according to Pielke et al., 2008. This is primarily due to the increasing population along the coast and increased wealth of the population. The authors theorize that the Great Miami Hurricane of 1926, a Category 4 monster that made a direct hit on Miami Beach, would have caused about $150 billion in damage had it hit in 2005. Thus, by 2015, the same hurricane would do $300 billion in damage, and $600 billion by 2025. This is without considering the impact that accelerating sea level rise will have on storm surge damages. Global sea level rise over the past decade has been about double what it was in the 20th century, and the rate of sea level rise is expected to increase further in the coming decades. Storm surge does the majority of damage in major hurricanes, and storm surges riding on top of higher sea levels are going to do a lot more damage in the coming decades. If we toss in the (controversial) increases in Category 3 and stronger storms like Dr. Emanuel suggests may occur, the hurricane damage math gets very impressive. We can also add onto that the relatively non-controversial increase in tropical cyclone rainfall of 20% expected by 2100, which will sharply increase damages due to fresh water river flooding. It is controversial whether or not we are already be seeing an increase in heavy precipitation events associated with tropical cyclones in the U.S., though. The total number of daily rainfall events exceeding 2" associated with tropical cyclones in the Southeast U.S. on a century time scale has not changed significantly, according to Groisman et al., 2004. But a 2010 study by Kunkel et al., "Recent increases in U.S. heavy precipitation associated with tropical cyclones", found that the number of Southeast U.S. tropical cyclone heavy precipitation events, defined as 1-in-5-year events, more than doubled between 1994 - 2008, compared to the long-term average from 1895 - 2008.


Figure 4. Time series of the 15-year running average (plotted at the end point of the 15-yr blocks) of a Tropical Cyclone Heavy Precipitation Index (red) and 15-year running average of U.S. landfalling hurricanes (blue). Note that there has been no long-term increase in U.S. landfalling hurricanes, but there has been a sharp increase in extreme rainfall events associated with landfalling tropical cyclones--the kind of rainfall events most likely to cause damaging flooding. Image credit: Kunkel et al. (2010), "Recent increases in U.S. heavy precipitation associated with tropical cyclones", Geophysical Research Letters.

It is essential that we limit coastal development in vulnerable coastal areas, particularly along barrier islands, to reduce some of the astronomical price tags hurricanes are going to be causing in the future. Adoption and enforcement of strict building standards is also a must, as well as more reforms to the government's National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), which subsidizes development in high-risk coastal regions that private insurers won't touch. NFIP is now $25 - 30 billion in the red, thanks to Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Sandy. Reform of NFIP is already underway. In 2012, before Sandy hit, Congress passed the Biggert-Waters Flood Insurance Reform Act, which requires people with NFIP policies to pay large premium increases of about 25% per year over the next five years. Naturally, this move has caused major controversy.

References
Camargo, S., (2013), "Global and regional aspects of tropical cyclone activity in the CMIP5 models," J. Climate.

Emanuel, K.A., 2013, "Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century", PNAS, July 8, 2013, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1301293110

Groisman, Pavel Ya, et al., "Contemporary changes of the hydrological cycle over the contiguous United States: Trends derived from in situ observations," Journal of Hydrometeorology 5.1 (2004): 64-85.

Knutson et al., 2010, "Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change", Nature Geoscience 3, 157 - 163, Published online: 21 February 2010 | doi:10.1038/ngeo779

Knutson et al., 2013, Dynamical Downscaling Projections of 21st Century Atlantic Hurricane Activity: CMIP3 and CMIP5 Model-based Scenarios, Journal of Climate 2013 ; e-View
doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00539.1

Pielke, R.A, et al., 2008, "Normalized Hurricane Damage in the United States: 1900 - 2005," Natural Hazards Review, DOI:10.1061/ASCE1527-6988(2008)9:1(29)

Villarini, G, and G.A. Vecchi, 2012, "Twenty-first-century projections of North Atlantic tropical storms from CMIP5 models," Nature Clim. Change 2:604–607.

Related posts
Global warming and the frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes: model results, my 2010 blog post.

Climate Central's analysis of the new 2013 Kerry Emanuel paper.

Goodbye, Miami: Jeff Goodell's sobering 2013 article in Rolling Stone on the challenges Miami faces due to sea level rise and hurricanes.


What the official climate assessments say about climate change and hurricanes
The 2013 IPCC report gives “low confidence”--a 20% chance--that we have observed a human-caused increase in intense hurricanes in some parts of the world. This is a reduction in odds from the 2007 report, which said that it was more likely than not (greater than 50% chance.) The IPCC likely took note of a landmark 2010 review paper, "Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change", authored by ten top hurricane scientists, which concluded that the U.S. had not seen any long-term increase in landfalling tropical storms and hurricanes, and that "it remains uncertain whether past changes in tropical cyclone activity have exceeded the variability expected from natural causes." The 2013 IPCC report predicts that there is a greater than 50% chance (more likely than not) that we will see a human-caused increase in intense hurricanes by 2100 in some regions; this is also a reduction from the 2007 report, which said this would be likely (66% chance or higher.)

The May 2014 United States National Climate Assessment found that “The intensity, frequency, and duration of North Atlantic hurricanes, as well as the frequency of the strongest (Category 4 and 5) hurricanes, have all increased since the early 1980s. The relative contributions of human and natural causes to these increases are still uncertain. Hurricane-associated storm intensity and rainfall rates are projected to increase as the climate continues to warm.”

Jeff Masters

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2219. sar2401
Quoting SouthernIllinois:
BIG BIG rains ahead. I haven't been this excited AND optimistic in a long time with the prospects of a REALLY GOOD soaking. All all the models are on board with that...ECMFC, GFS, and NAM. And to top it off, the HPC sums it up so beautifully.

But gonna post Twister Data map cuz the colors are more detailed and pretty :)

This is GREAT NEWS for us down in the Heartland and near Cypress! YAY!!!!


This is from now through Saturday? I hope it works out for you, Natalie, but there's no way we are getting the kind of rain shown for Alabama unless there's a tropical storm I haven't heard about yet. Any time you see statewide generalized rainfall for Alabama in the summer without a tropical system, you can be 100% sure the prediction is wrong.
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Click here for larger image.

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Quoting 2193. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Actually I heard these 3 storms were nasty to the area.

1935 Labor Day Hurricane A big storm too!:



1950 Hurricane Easy:



1960 Hurricane Donna:



I guess Tampa in '50 had a pretty laid-back sense of humor to name a cane 'Easy'.

Is it true what Chicklit said, my wave between PR and Hispaniola is doomed?
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Quoting 2142. Chicklit:
oh boy...


glad I'm not in charge of the world


The wave currently centred 10N 25W getting a slight rotation visible in the flash loop below. The 'Dust' ahead seems to be inhibiting all the waves in this current train. Wont be long now before it clears out though. The season is yet to fire on all cylinders, despite our count sitting at 4..

Link
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Quoting 2187. KoritheMan:
And yes wxgeek, I do want a hurricane. I never make an attempt to hide that.

And it'll happen eventually, just you wait. ;)


Quoting 2173. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Pretending a hurricane isn't ever going to hit the Northeast isn't going to make it go away, lol.

Sorry bud.


Quoting 2200. NJcat3cane:


this is not all that different in the big scheme of things


belle of 76.. past one was vagabond cane of 1903


Lol let me just clear this up.

I apologize for getting so heated. I was already in a bad mood when I came on the blog. The thing is...I don't think you guys are understanding the "on the ground" factor.

You see, I was down in Cape May today visiting relatives. Now this area was spared by both Irene and Sandy, but has become extremely weary to hurricanes. The beach has shapeshifted (though that happens every year) All of NJ has...we never have hurricanes and then suddenly we have back to back years with mandatory evacs ordered.

And I drove home the Garden State Parkway, which is a toll freeway built in a surge zone along the back bays of the barrier islands providing spectacular views of the shore resorts. I have a lot of appreciation for the natural beauty of the state, and for the Jersey Shore, as it's very home to me.

Can a hurricane hit us this year? Of course it could. Anything can happen any year...but when I saw NJC3C's comment I became frustrated because I felt like he was almost wishing one up to us (I know you live in Brigantine bud).

Here's the thing...I feel for the people of this state that cannot handle another storm, and I feel like you guys exhibit total indifference to that. That's what I'm fighting here. Anxiety levels ran high even when we were in the cone for Andrea.

And I don't even know what Christie would do if he had to evacuate Atlantic City again and deal with another hurricane, I think he'd blow LOL. So obviously every coastal resident should prepare for hurricane season, but I would really like to hope that won't be necessary.

So when I said I was confident it couldn't happen, I was just flustered. There is a return period for the region and a hurricane will come again. Just not so soon please. When I say I know it's not going to happen there's obviously some facetiousness injected in there.

You don't know what it's like to watch hurricanes safely dodge you for years and then have two take unprecedented tracks and totally undermine your sense of security (which I know shouldn't be there)

By the way NJC3C I know all the Jersey hurricanes, you don't have to list them to me haha.

My grandmom actually told me her story of the 1944 hurricane in Avalon today.

By the way Cody, don't try to belittle me. It won't work.
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2214. Patrap

from solarham.net



Lighthouse Aurora: Aurora at Marshall Point Lighthouse, Maine sent to us by Mike Taylor captured during the minor geomagnetic storming.

"The awe-inspiring green and purple colors of the Northern Lights spiked up early this morning while I was shooting the Milky Way down at Marshall Point Lighthouse in Port Clyde. This photo was taken about 5 feet from the base of the tower. I really like the shadow rays of light coming from the top of the lighthouse itself. The "leaning tower" is caused by the barrel distortion via my wide angle lens - I straightened it out a little bit but I kind of dig the angle anyway."
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Quoting 2212. yoboi:



How wet are you projected to get????????

I'm banking anywhere from 2-4" for my location. It really depends heavily though on whether or not you get under a heavy thunderstorm or a training wave of storms. In that case 6-7 inches is not out of the question.

Right now though Yoboi, I would put all of Southern Illinois at widespread 1-2" with many spots towards the tip of the state getting upwards of 3".

Boo-Yah!!
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2212. yoboi
Quoting 2207. SouthernIllinois:
BIG BIG rains ahead. I haven't been this excited AND optimistic in a long time with the prospects of a REALLY GOOD soaking. All all the models are on board with that...ECMFC, GFS, and NAM. And to top it off, the HPC sums it up so beautifully.

But gonna post Twister Data map cuz the colors are more detailed and pretty :)

This is GREAT NEWS for us down in the Heartland and near Cypress! YAY!!!!




How wet are you projected to get????????
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Quoting 2017. Grothar:


There is very high wind shear in the eastern Caribbean. Very rare any storms form there. There is also a big ULL to the Northeast of it. So I think unlikely at this time.




Probably right, Gro.
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Great Atlantic hurricane of 44 would cause tons of damage today if a track like that happened.
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img src="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons /a/ae/1944_Atlantic_hurricane_7_track.png"

Great Atlantic hurricane of 44 would cause tons of damage today if a track like that happened.
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2208. sar2401
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
You haven't seen nothing yet, areas that haven't gotten hit in awhile or rarely gets hit are about to get hit a lot, especially if you start factoring Global Warming and Climate Change.

Really, GT, you'll have to post a link to back that one up. I've seen no evidence that Global Warming/Climate Change has any proven effect on where any one location gets hit or how often.
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BIG BIG rains ahead. I haven't been this excited AND optimistic in a long time with the prospects of a REALLY GOOD soaking. All all the models are on board with that...ECMFC, GFS, and NAM. And to top it off, the HPC sums it up so beautifully.

But gonna post Twister Data map cuz the colors are more detailed and pretty :)

This is GREAT NEWS for us down in the Heartland! YAY!!!!

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Quoting 2202. sar2401:

You can post that suggestion on the sensitivethug blog, where it will promptly be ignored, but you'll at least feel like you made an attempt.


Or you can have a handle like mine.
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Quoting 2193. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Actually I heard these 3 storms were nasty to the area.

1935 Labor Day Hurricane A big storm too!:



1950 Hurricane Easy:



1960 Hurricane Donna:



Hurricane King (1950) wind damage swath




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Quoting 2198. sar2401:

I'm on the roof with binoculars now, scanning the horizon for trouble. Even with all that work, I'm still getting drowsy. :-)

Now Now Now. Mama always said when you start to feel drowsy and eyelids get heavy time to get off that roof. LOL.
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2203. whitewabit (Mod)
Quoting 2197. 69Viking:
It would sure be cool if we could post our location under our Avatar, sure would save a lot of repeat questions!


some might not want others to know where they are from ..
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2202. sar2401
Quoting 69Viking:
It would sure be cool if we could post our location under our Avatar, sure would save a lot of repeat questions!

You can post that suggestion on the sensitivethug blog, where it will promptly be ignored, but you'll at least feel like you made an attempt.
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2201. Patrap
If you have made a blog, or posted weather photos, clicking on ones Handle will reveal the Location,and bring you to that bloggers blog.
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Quoting 2194. wxgeek723:


Yeah...and how the hell often does that happen?


this is not all that different in the big scheme of things


belle of 76.. past one was vagabond cane of 1903
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2199. Patrap
Published on Aug 6, 2013

Attached video by Lasco C2 and STEREO Behind COR2 shows a pair of Coronal Mass Ejections leaving the Sun on August 6, 2013. The first becomes visible at 02:12 UTC and appears to be directed mostly to the north, but could have somewhat of a weaker Earth directed component. The source appears to be an eruption in the northeast quadrant when viewing the latest GOES-15 Solar X-Ray Imager (SXI) video. The second CME becomes visible at 03:36 UTC and is directed towards the south. This was the result a prominence eruption off the southern limb.



Get da Ham'...

solarham.ne
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2198. sar2401
Quoting lurkersince2008:
Every time I start thinking that the season is starting out slow, out of no where a train of waves start showing up...so try to stay alert .

I'm on the roof with binoculars now, scanning the horizon for trouble. Even with all that work, I'm still getting drowsy. :-)
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It would sure be cool if we could post our location under our Avatar, sure would save a lot of repeat questions!
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Quoting 2194. wxgeek723:


Yeah...and how the hell often does that happen?
You haven't seen nothing yet, areas that haven't gotten hit in awhile or rarely gets hit are about to get hit a lot, especially if you start factoring Global Warming and Climate Change.
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Chicklit that African wave train looks big.
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Quoting 2192. NJcat3cane:


With a track like this its not really all that protected.


Yeah...and how the hell often does that happen?
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Actually I heard these 3 storms were nasty to the area.

1935 Labor Day Hurricane A big storm too!:



1950 Hurricane Easy:



1960 Hurricane Donna:

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With a track like this its not really all that protected.
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2191. barbamz
With that far outlook a good night from Germany!



Something big is happening on the sun. The sun's global magnetic field is about to flip, a sign that Solar Max has arrived.

News found on spaceweather.com.
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Quoting 2137. PcolaSurf182:
Where do you live Viking? I live near the airport in Cordova Park and it has hardly rained enough to make the ground wet. I've been keeping an eye on the radar for the past few hours and the rain just keeps missing me. I haven't had to run my sprinklers in over 3 weeks an want to keep that streak going! I hope some of that rain to our north makes it my way!!



I'm in Fort Walton Beach!
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Quoting 2186. KoritheMan:


If you're referring to the inherently cooler waters found at your latitude, then yes, there's that.

But don't forget that virtually all New England hurricanes are not fully tropical; at the very least, they're taking on the typical sheared comma appearance when they get north of 35N, because the environment becomes more baroclinic at that point.

Pinning your hopes on cold waters isn't going to do much for a system that's almost guaranteed not to be the classic, run of the mill symmetrical hurricane, especially when you factor in the forward speed, which is normally on the order of 25 to 30 kt in that vicinity.


New England juts out like a sore thumb. By geography I'm referring to the Mid Atlantic, and how it is protected by OBX and New England.
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Quoting 2183. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


I can't see nothing myself no

we are checking it



Thanks, Keep. I logged out/in, thought that had fixed it, but it's still managing to popup, not on every refresh now though unlike a bit ago.
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And yes wxgeek, I do want a hurricane. I never make an attempt to hide that.

And it'll happen eventually, just you wait. ;)
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Quoting 2179. wxgeek723:


I have geography on my side :)

That's where I was going with this...


If you're referring to the inherently cooler waters found at your latitude, then yes, there's that.

But don't forget that virtually all New England hurricanes are not fully tropical; at the very least, they're taking on the typical sheared comma appearance when they get north of 35N, because the environment becomes more baroclinic at that point.

Pinning your hopes on cold waters isn't going to do much for a system that's almost guaranteed not to be the classic, run of the mill symmetrical hurricane, especially when you factor in the forward speed, which is normally on the order of 25 to 30 kt in that vicinity.
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Quoting 2168. wxgeek723:


Can you not? Aggravating.

Sorry, let me say I'm pretty damn confident.
Here is the thing I live in the Tampa Bay area and I believe this area will be hit again by a major hurricane I just don't know when, but it has been 92 years last one was in 1921, before that it was 1848 which was 73 years.
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Quoting 2173. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Pretending a hurricane isn't ever going to hit the Northeast isn't going to make it go away, lol.

Sorry bud.


There's an obvious return period...I don't know why you guys think I'm an idiot? Sorry bud I do my research too and statistically there's a 0.5% chance of a hurricane striking NJ in any given year.

You guys take it way too seriously. This is why you guys get trolled...just saying.
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2183. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting 2178. moonlightcowboy:
Anyone else keep getting a popup login in box for an ftp site?


I can't see nothing myself no

we are checking it
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2182. ncstorm
Quoting 2175. moonlightcowboy:


Man! That's bad stuff. Poor guy from South Africa lunch meat for two sharks. And, he survived. Amazing.


Part II though coming up...4 years later and he meets up with another shark..why are these people so crazy to get BACK in the water..
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Quoting 2177. wxgeek723:


Well...duh lol we get tropical storms all the time.
after post season review Irene was ONLY a tropical storm.....even tho that was super weak here at the coast it did tons of damage inland.
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2180. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting 2171. Chicklit:

there's still some dry air out there redwagon.
if i had to bet I'd take door #3
that's the best bet
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Quoting 2174. KoritheMan:


You need to make sure that confidence is based on meteorological facts, rather than because you don't want a hurricane.

Do you have any?


I have geography on my side :)
That's where I was going with this...


I know you want a hurricane though ;)
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Anyone else keep getting a popup login in box for an ftp site?
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Quoting 2172. NJcat3cane:
Andrea albeit extra tropical and weak grazed the South New Jersey coast already this year.. already had a storm up here if you wanna count that. circulation was still there when it was over NJ waters/skirting the coast.


Well...yeah lol we get tropical storms all the time.
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Quoting 2045. Camille33:
I am expecting a below avg atlantic hurricane season very below avg to be exact!!
Elaborate please.
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Quoting 2154. ncstorm:
Shark Week on DHC..what in the world!!..the actual footage of people getting attacked is making everyone in my house holler..


Man! That's bad stuff. Poor guy from South Africa lunch meat for two sharks. And, he survived. Amazing.
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Quoting 2168. wxgeek723:


Can you not? Aggravating.

Sorry, let me say I'm pretty damn confident.


You need to make sure that confidence is based on meteorological facts, rather than because you don't want a hurricane.

Do you have any?
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Quoting 2168. wxgeek723:


Can you not? Aggravating.

Sorry, let me say I'm pretty damn confident.

Pretending a hurricane isn't ever going to hit the Northeast isn't going to make it go away, lol.

Sorry bud.
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Quoting 2168. wxgeek723:


I'm pretty damn confident.
Andrea albeit extra tropical and weak grazed the South New Jersey coast already this year.. already had a storm up here if you wanna count that. circulation was still there when it was over NJ waters/skirting the coast.
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Quoting 2170. redwagon:


On your sat shot (nice!) I offer three predictions:

Blob A runs low and pulls a Felix or maybe an Ernesto.

Blob B gets named Erin since it's so close to islands, requiring TS warnings if within 500 miles, then dissipates, a total waste of a name.

Blob C goes Hebert and landfalls where the Dolphins play as Cat2.

there's still some dry air out there redwagon.
if i had to bet I'd take door #3
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Quoting 2142. Chicklit:
oh boy...


On your sat shot (nice!) I offer three predictions:

Blob A runs low and pulls a Felix or maybe an Ernesto.

Blob B gets named Erin since it's so close to islands, requiring TS warnings if within 500 miles, then dissipates, a total waste of a name.

Blob C goes Hebert and landfalls where the Dolphins play as Cat2.
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Quoting 2164. Stormchaser121:
I'm gonna be positive and say Tx will get something soon

Storm, this season may have something very special for Texas. You've gotten some relief this summer and there's a decent chance of more to come. Now would be a good time to invest in cisterns so you have irrigation water once the season's over. But that's not the American way. We use it and lose it. lol :-(
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.