Hurricanes and Climate Change: Huge Dangers, Huge Unknowns

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:57 AM GMT on August 05, 2013

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Hurricane Sandy's enormous $65 billion price tag put that great storm in third place for the most expensive weather-related disaster in U.S. (and world) history, and six of the ten most expensive U.S. weather-related disasters since 1980 have been hurricanes. Thus, how the strongest hurricanes may be affected due a changing climate is a topic of critical concern. Since hurricanes are heat engines that extract heat energy from the oceans to power themselves, hurricane scientists are confident that the very strongest storms will get stronger by the end of the century, when Earth's land and ocean temperatures are expected to warm 2 - 3°C, to levels unmatched since the Eemian Era, 115,000 years ago. Computer modeling work consistently indicates that greenhouse warming will cause the globally averaged intensity of tropical cyclones to shift towards stronger storms, with intensity increases of 2–11% by 2100. But hurricanes are fussy creations, and are sensitive to wind shear and dry air. Although the strongest storms should get stronger when "perfect storm" conditions are present, these "perfect storm" conditions may become less frequent in the future, due to the presence of higher wind shear, altered atmospheric circulation patterns, or more dry air at mid levels of the atmosphere. Indeed, the climate models used to formulate the 2007 IPCC report suggested that we might see the strongest hurricanes getting stronger, but a decrease in the total number of hurricanes in the Atlantic (and worldwide) later this century. However, the latest set of models used to formulate the 2013 IPCC report left open the possibility that we might see in increase in the total number of hurricanes, and and increase in their intensity. Given the conflicting model results, we really don't know how global warming will affect the number of hurricanes and their intensity, but we run the risk of making one of humanity's greatest scourges worse.


Figure 1. The list of most expensive U.S. weather-related disasters since 1980 is dominated by hurricanes.

Climate models and hurricane frequency
The database we have on historical hurricanes does not extend far enough into the past and is not of high enough quality to make many judgements on how human-caused climate change may be affecting these great storms. A landmark 2010 review paper, "Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change", authored by ten top hurricane scientists concluded that the U.S. has not seen any long-term increase in landfalling tropical storms and hurricanes, and that "it remains uncertain whether past changes in tropical cyclone activity have exceeded the variability expected from natural causes" (tropical cyclone is the generic term which encompasses tropical depressions, tropical storms, hurricanes, and typhoons.) Based in part on modeling studies using climate models run for the 2007 IPCC report, the scientists concluded that "it is likely that global mean tropical cyclone frequency will either decrease or remain unchanged owing to greenhouse warming." For example, one of the modeling studies the review paper quoted, Knutson et al. (2008), "Simulated reduction in Atlantic hurricane frequency under twenty-first-century warming conditions", projected a decrease in Atlantic tropical storms by 27% and hurricanes by 18% by the end of the century. An important reason that their model predicted these decreases was due to a predicted increase in wind shear. As I explain in my wind shear tutorial, a large change of wind speed with height over a hurricane creates a shearing force that tends to tear the storm apart. The amount of wind shear is critical in determining whether a hurricane can form or survive.

But a July 2013 study by MIT's Dr. Kerry Emanuel, "Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century", challenged this result. Dr. Emanuel argued that tropical cyclones are likely to become both stronger and more frequent as the climate continues to warm. This increase is most likely to occur in Western North Pacific, with smaller increases in the Atlantic. Dr. Emanuel took output from six newer higher-resolution climate models used to formulate the 2013 IPCC report, and used the output to drive a high-resolution hurricane model. The simulations found that the global frequency of tropical cyclones would increase by 11% to 40% by 2100, with intensity increases as well. The combined effects produced a global increase in Category 3 and stronger hurricanes of 40%. The behavior of these strongest hurricanes is critical, since they do most of the damage we observe. Over the past century, Category 3 - 5 hurricanes accounted for 85% of US hurricane damage, despite representing only 24% of U.S. landfalling storms. Category 4 and 5 hurricanes made up only 6% of all U.S. landfalls, but accounted for 48% of all U.S. damage (if normalized to account for increases in U.S. population and wealth, see Pielke et al., 2008.)


Figure 2. Projected changes in tropical cyclone track density during the 2006-2100 period compared to the 1950-2005 period, using output from six climate models included in the 2013 IPCC report. The global frequency of tropical cyclones is predicted to increase by 11% to 40%, with the largest changes occurring in the Northwest Pacific off the coast of Japan. Smaller increases are predicted for the Atlantic and near Australia. Image credit: Kerry Emanuel, "Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century", Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, July 8, 2013, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1301293110.

However, a study by Knutson et al. (2013), using the same latest-generation climate models as used by Emanuel (2013), but using the output from the models to drive a different high-resolution hurricane model, found a 20% decrease in Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes by 2100. Two other 2013 studies by Villarini et al. and Camargo, also using output from the 2013 IPCC models, found essentially no change in Atlantic tropical cyclones. The reason for the differences, lies, in part, with how much global warming is assumed in the studies. Dr. Emanuel's study, which found an increase in tropical cyclone activity, assumed a worst-case warming situation (RCP 8.5), following the "business as usual" emissions path humanity is currently on. The Knutson et al. study, which found a decrease of 20% in Atlantic tropical cyclones, used a scenario (RCP 4.5) where it was assumed humans will wise up and cause about half of the worst-case greenhouse warming. The study found found "marginally significant" increases in Atlantic Category 4 and 5 hurricanes of 39% - 45% by 2100. These dramatically different results give credence to Dr. Emanuel statement at the end of his paper, "the response of tropical cyclones to projected climate change will remain uncertain for some time to come." The 2013 IPCC report also emphasized the high amount of uncertainty in how climate change might affect hurricanes, stating that there was "low confidence" that we have observed any increases in intense tropical cyclones due to human causes. However, since the 1970s, it is virtually certain (99 - 100% chance) that the frequency and intensity of hurricanes and tropical storms in the North Atlantic has increased, and there is medium confidence that a reduction in small air pollution particles (aerosols) over the North Atlantic caused part of this effect. The report's forecast for the future stated that it is "more likely than not" (50 - 100% chance) that human-caused climate change will cause a substantial increase in intense tropical cyclones in some ocean basins by 2100, with the Western North Pacific and Atlantic being at particular risk. Also, there will likely (66 - 100% chance) be an increase in both global mean tropical cyclone maximum wind speed and rain rates by 2100, and more likely than not (50 - 100% chance) that the increase in the most intense tropical cyclones will be larger than 10% in some basins.


Figure 3. Expected change in Atlantic Category 4 and 5 hurricanes per decade expected by the year 2100, according to Knutson et al. (2013), "Dynamical Downscaling Projections of 21st Century Atlantic Hurricane Activity: CMIP3 and CMIP5 Model-based Scenarios." This research used the latest generation of climate models from the 2013 IPCC report, and found "marginally significant" increases in Atlantic Category 4 and 5 hurricanes of 39% - 45% by 2100.

Commentary
Hurricane damages are currently doubling every ten years without the effect of climate change, according to Pielke et al., 2008. This is primarily due to the increasing population along the coast and increased wealth of the population. The authors theorize that the Great Miami Hurricane of 1926, a Category 4 monster that made a direct hit on Miami Beach, would have caused about $150 billion in damage had it hit in 2005. Thus, by 2015, the same hurricane would do $300 billion in damage, and $600 billion by 2025. This is without considering the impact that accelerating sea level rise will have on storm surge damages. Global sea level rise over the past decade has been about double what it was in the 20th century, and the rate of sea level rise is expected to increase further in the coming decades. Storm surge does the majority of damage in major hurricanes, and storm surges riding on top of higher sea levels are going to do a lot more damage in the coming decades. If we toss in the (controversial) increases in Category 3 and stronger storms like Dr. Emanuel suggests may occur, the hurricane damage math gets very impressive. We can also add onto that the relatively non-controversial increase in tropical cyclone rainfall of 20% expected by 2100, which will sharply increase damages due to fresh water river flooding. It is controversial whether or not we are already be seeing an increase in heavy precipitation events associated with tropical cyclones in the U.S., though. The total number of daily rainfall events exceeding 2" associated with tropical cyclones in the Southeast U.S. on a century time scale has not changed significantly, according to Groisman et al., 2004. But a 2010 study by Kunkel et al., "Recent increases in U.S. heavy precipitation associated with tropical cyclones", found that the number of Southeast U.S. tropical cyclone heavy precipitation events, defined as 1-in-5-year events, more than doubled between 1994 - 2008, compared to the long-term average from 1895 - 2008.


Figure 4. Time series of the 15-year running average (plotted at the end point of the 15-yr blocks) of a Tropical Cyclone Heavy Precipitation Index (red) and 15-year running average of U.S. landfalling hurricanes (blue). Note that there has been no long-term increase in U.S. landfalling hurricanes, but there has been a sharp increase in extreme rainfall events associated with landfalling tropical cyclones--the kind of rainfall events most likely to cause damaging flooding. Image credit: Kunkel et al. (2010), "Recent increases in U.S. heavy precipitation associated with tropical cyclones", Geophysical Research Letters.

It is essential that we limit coastal development in vulnerable coastal areas, particularly along barrier islands, to reduce some of the astronomical price tags hurricanes are going to be causing in the future. Adoption and enforcement of strict building standards is also a must, as well as more reforms to the government's National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), which subsidizes development in high-risk coastal regions that private insurers won't touch. NFIP is now $25 - 30 billion in the red, thanks to Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Sandy. Reform of NFIP is already underway. In 2012, before Sandy hit, Congress passed the Biggert-Waters Flood Insurance Reform Act, which requires people with NFIP policies to pay large premium increases of about 25% per year over the next five years. Naturally, this move has caused major controversy.

References
Camargo, S., (2013), "Global and regional aspects of tropical cyclone activity in the CMIP5 models," J. Climate.

Emanuel, K.A., 2013, "Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century", PNAS, July 8, 2013, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1301293110

Groisman, Pavel Ya, et al., "Contemporary changes of the hydrological cycle over the contiguous United States: Trends derived from in situ observations," Journal of Hydrometeorology 5.1 (2004): 64-85.

Knutson et al., 2010, "Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change", Nature Geoscience 3, 157 - 163, Published online: 21 February 2010 | doi:10.1038/ngeo779

Knutson et al., 2013, Dynamical Downscaling Projections of 21st Century Atlantic Hurricane Activity: CMIP3 and CMIP5 Model-based Scenarios, Journal of Climate 2013 ; e-View
doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00539.1

Pielke, R.A, et al., 2008, "Normalized Hurricane Damage in the United States: 1900 - 2005," Natural Hazards Review, DOI:10.1061/ASCE1527-6988(2008)9:1(29)

Villarini, G, and G.A. Vecchi, 2012, "Twenty-first-century projections of North Atlantic tropical storms from CMIP5 models," Nature Clim. Change 2:604–607.

Related posts
Global warming and the frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes: model results, my 2010 blog post.

Climate Central's analysis of the new 2013 Kerry Emanuel paper.

Goodbye, Miami: Jeff Goodell's sobering 2013 article in Rolling Stone on the challenges Miami faces due to sea level rise and hurricanes.


What the official climate assessments say about climate change and hurricanes
The 2013 IPCC report gives “low confidence”--a 20% chance--that we have observed a human-caused increase in intense hurricanes in some parts of the world. This is a reduction in odds from the 2007 report, which said that it was more likely than not (greater than 50% chance.) The IPCC likely took note of a landmark 2010 review paper, "Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change", authored by ten top hurricane scientists, which concluded that the U.S. had not seen any long-term increase in landfalling tropical storms and hurricanes, and that "it remains uncertain whether past changes in tropical cyclone activity have exceeded the variability expected from natural causes." The 2013 IPCC report predicts that there is a greater than 50% chance (more likely than not) that we will see a human-caused increase in intense hurricanes by 2100 in some regions; this is also a reduction from the 2007 report, which said this would be likely (66% chance or higher.)

The May 2014 United States National Climate Assessment found that “The intensity, frequency, and duration of North Atlantic hurricanes, as well as the frequency of the strongest (Category 4 and 5) hurricanes, have all increased since the early 1980s. The relative contributions of human and natural causes to these increases are still uncertain. Hurricane-associated storm intensity and rainfall rates are projected to increase as the climate continues to warm.”

Jeff Masters

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Mika,

Look for bark, if the lighting hit a tree there will likely be bark blown off the tree.
If it hit a good lightning rod that is copper, you won't see much. If the lightning rods are aluminum, the may melt down an inch or two. Or so I hear.
Member Since: December 28, 2006 Posts: 115 Comments: 1580
Quoting 65. SFLWeatherman:
they say it's going up 6 inches a week


The discharges from Lake O is killing marine life in IRL as well as in the St. Lucie estuary. If a tropical system were to hit any time soon the bordering counites of Palm Beach, Hendry, Glades, Martin, and Okeechobee could become impacted with floods. I could not imagine how much in property costs would be at risk.
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Quoting 66. Patrap:
I gotta roll, can't stand still, got a flaming heart, can't get my fill
Eyes that shine burning red, dreams of you all through my head.




That is one impressive wave over C Africa! Could that kick off the Cape Verde season? Well time will tell.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 3359
I gotta roll, can't stand still, got a flaming heart, can't get my fill
Eyes that shine burning red, dreams of you all through my head.


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they say it's going up 6 inches a week
Quoting 44. rmbjoe1954:


Lake O is nearing 15.9 feet and if a soaking tropical system were to hit us I beleive it may raise the threat of levees getting breeched.
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Quoting 23. pcola57:
Thanks for the updated blog Dr. Masters..
With the numbers on Majors you posted it's clear that changes are coming..

Good Morning All..
74 degrees here with 97%rh and dew at 73..
Scattered clouds with winds 5mph from NNW..

Looks to be a decent beach day for those so inclined..



Yesterday was a great beach day. Today might be even better. Nice to get the rain out of the way for a few days...although we did get a rockin' thunderstorm through here around dinner time last night.
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Good Morning!

7:30 am (11:30 GMT)

A sunny morning from Bicentennial Park in Lantana, Florida. Unfortunately, we discovered a dead bottlenose dolphin laying in the man-made estuary yesterday. I've been noticing dolphins playing in the Intracoastal lately, it was disconcerting to find a dead one. Authorities were notified, and a 'team' came out to investigate. I took a picture, but I'll spare you by not posting it.

In happier news...Dexter remains happy!

"Hey, anyone see any crabs? They sorta look like a tropical cyclone, only they have little legs that get caught in your teeth..."

We a a butt-kicker of a storm pass through late yesterday afternoon. I even recorded a "1-minute rainstorm video" that I thought I might post, when less than a minute after I stopped recording, a huge lightning strike occurred across the street sending fire and sparks flying, while absolutely petrifying me with fear. It was so close, I wasn't sure if I was the one getting hit. To add to the bizarre, I still haven't been able to determine exactly where it did hit. I'll have to look around some more today.

A total of 1.28" in the gauge for yesterday.





Also, a gorgeous sunset last evening, couldn't get the height to do it justice, but this gives you the idea...
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Wow, what a nice morning outside, got down to 55F at my house last night and the W/NW breeze makes it feel just like fall. A good morning to keep the windows open!
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Quoting 57. MahFL:


It's actually worse:

Monday, August 05, 2013
6:00:00 AM
Level is 56.90 feet
below full pool of 681.00


Geesh! I heard 40 feet on the news but that was a couple a weeks ago. 56.90 is a staggering number. I wonder how Houston is planning on handling the water shortage that is about to come there way.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 3359
Quoting 56. hurricanes2018:
fall weather at my house this morning its only 54F THIS MORNING in new haven conn..

omg I need to get up that way!
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Quoting 43. StormTrackerScott:
Dought is beginning to get bad fast in TX. I heard reports that lake Travis (north of Houston) is 40 feet below average pool.



It's actually worse:

Monday, August 05, 2013
6:00:00 AM
Level is 56.90 feet
below full pool of 681.00
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fall weather at my house this morning its only 54F THIS MORNING in new haven conn..
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 27 Comments: 55002
Quoting 50. WPBHurricane05:
We can't even predict a hurricane 7 days out, and now we're looking ahead to 2100? Nonsense.

Logic fail. Try again.
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Quoting 27. StormTrackerScott:
Looks like Summer is over across the Upper Midwest. My family in Chicago said the nights have been cold lately with lows in some cases in the upper 40's and low 50's.



Here's the 8 to 14 day
last night at my house in new haven conn the temp was 54F LAST NIGHT..very cool weather for august..this cool weather will save the usa from any hurricanes hitting us.
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 27 Comments: 55002
Quoting 51. biff4ugo:
Not speaking for Lake Okeechobee, but central Florida rivers have been waiting a couple YEARS for the lakes to "overflow". We usually call it just flow. the Ocklawaha river has been struggling by on the greatly diminished flows from Silver Springs for way to long.

We have spent billions on the flow system in the everglades, can't the systems handle and distribute the water, now that we have it! Why does it have to go to the IRL and St. Lucie that don't want or need it. Do we own US Sugar land that we can flood?


Unfortunately, there is no where to put the water in the Everglades. I doubt urban sprawl helped.
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Not speaking for Lake Okeechobee, but central Florida rivers have been waiting a couple YEARS for the lakes to "overflow". We usually call it just flow. the Ocklawaha river has been struggling by on the greatly diminished flows from Silver Springs for way to long.

We have spent billions on the flow system in the everglades, can't the systems handle and distribute the water, now that we have it! Why does it have to go to the IRL and St. Lucie that don't want or need it. Do we own US Sugar land that we can flood?
Member Since: December 28, 2006 Posts: 115 Comments: 1580
We can't even predict a hurricane 7 days out, and now we're looking ahead to 2100? Nonsense.
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Quoting 26. pcola57:


Yesterday was hot and looks like were in for more hot weather. With all the rain and cool temps we've been having I forgot how hot it can get! Good morning everyone, some very quiet tropics!
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 3059
Quoting 30. SouthernIllinois:

Tell me about it Scott! I have relatives and friends up there who tell me almost the same thing. I mean highs BARELY getting above 70 with full sunshine at Grant Park for Lolapolloza this weekend. That's crazy! And lows have been very chilly!

July was cooler than average, especially late July. And August looks to follow suit. Here's a nice picture of July weather up there...




I like how they used the color coding to reinforce their point. It is amazing how different 8-10 degrees F makes in the human experience.
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Quoting 44. rmbjoe1954:


Lake O is nearing 15.9 feet and if a soaking tropical system were to hit us I beleive it may raise the threat of levees getting breeched.


The amount of water being drained from Lake O right now would fill Lake Travis (TWICE)! Quite the ECO Disaster going on right now across S FL.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 3359
Looks like the CPC folks are expecting above precip due to tropical system impacts across the SE US over the next couple of months.

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 3359
Quoting 32. StormTrackerScott:
1.52" of rain in Longwood, FL this past weekend. Lakes are beginning to over flow now across C FL and we haven't even had a hurricane yet.


Lake O is nearing 15.9 feet and if a soaking tropical system were to hit us I beleive it may raise the threat of levees getting breeched.
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Dought is beginning to get bad fast in TX. I heard reports that lake Travis (north of Houston) is 40 feet below average pool.

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 3359
Quoting 34. VR46L:


So you mean that people in 1992 had the same goods and cost of living as today.. I don't think so , most people now have 1,000's of Dollars worth of electrical goods when back then people didn't have as many ..They would all go into the cost of a hurricane damage today...

It maybe our fault but MAMA Nature could be a cow even before AGW ... Camille , Betsy ,the 1928 Hurricane ...etc

They are gonna continue to get worse ... Hmm even the Doc has said in his blog the science community don't know , are split, on what impact AGW will have on hurricanes .



Sorry VR46L, the numbers are accurate and strict methodology is used to correct for bias. This paper on the methodology used might be interesting to you. Link

Before attacking the data, maybe 5 minutes of research to understand what the data is saying and to see how it is calculated is in order.
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Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. Thanks, Doc! I wasn't expecting a new blog so early in the morning. My town was hit by two of the ten. I can only hope for no more.

It's 79 already with a dew point of 76. Garden's watered and ready for the hot day ahead.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Shrimp-and-Grits Eggs Benedict with asparagus and a creamy low fat shrimp sauce, traditional omelet with crawfish Étouffée to pour over it, whole wheat English muffins with poached egg whites, low fat cheese, ham, tomato and sauce, whole wheat pancakes with fruit sauce, Scrambled Egg Pockets, cranberry coffee cake, cheese danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Enjoy!
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Thanks a lot, Dr. Masters, for this detailed and diligent roundup of an important and confusing subject!

Good morning or good afternoon with the latest news from German weather in southern and eastern regions (that means: not from my place where it's still hot and sunny):

Violent storms injure dozens over weekend
The Local, published: 5 Aug 2013 10:56 CET
Extreme weather battered Germany over the weekend, leaving dozens injured and 22 children in hospital after lightning hit their tent. The emergency services received hundreds of calls, it was reported on Monday. ...

Water rushes down into a subway station in Berlin during the night August 4/5, due to heavy rain (youtube video).
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 55 Comments: 6040
Checking in from steamy NOLA. It's 81 now at 0700, HI of 89. The weekend was horribly hot, heat indexes over 100 by 9 a.m. both days. Actual highs at 96, heat index up to 112 yesterday. Felt like I was back in Iragistan
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Not much change in MDR SST anomalies from last week, larger fluctuations in the Northern Atlantic.


Last Week:






This Week:

Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11215
Quoting 5. Neapolitan:
No, inflation didn't contribute; note that the values in Figure 1 are given in 2013 dollars. Believe it or not, things really are as bad as they seem--and they're going to continue to get worse.

And, yes, it's our fault...


So you mean that people in 1992 had the same goods and cost of living as today.. I don't think so , most people now have 1,000's of Dollars worth of electrical goods when back then people didn't have as many ..They would all go into the cost of a hurricane damage today...

It maybe our fault but MAMA Nature could be a cow even before AGW ... Camille , Betsy ,the 1928 Hurricane ...etc

They are gonna continue to get worse ... Hmm even the Doc has said in his blog the science community don't know , are split, on what impact AGW will have on hurricanes .

Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6927
Quoting 24. SouthernIllinois:

It's a pain. I know. Mine is telling me South Beach, Florida even though I am NOWHERE NEAR South Beach. Hey, I wouldn't mind going there though. Will Wunderground pay for a vacation down there?? But I changed mine to Kaduna, Nigeria with no luck either. It is STILL THERE!!!

Going to be a stormy week down in Southern Illinois. Multiple rounds of storms this week will have the potential to produce some very heavy rains with some hefty totals. YAY!!


Morning, SI,
Glad to see someone shares my p.i.t.a. Thankfully, it is only annoying when there is some type of weather alert for the area selected.

In my case, it was for a heat advisory for parts of SE TX.

It's August 5th on the Texas Gulf Coast...
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1.52" of rain in Longwood, FL this past weekend. Lakes are beginning to over flow now across C FL and we haven't even had a hurricane yet.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 3359
Doc, pleasantly surprise to wake up and find such a detailed and informative article so early in the morning. Even though it confirms what many scientists have written about over the years, it was interesting to see them in one article. I have been reading more and more the articles in which theories were postulated about the present climate change causing parts of North America and Northern Europe to become much colder or at least have larger variations in their weather. Perhaps a future article could discuss the change in ocean currents. I know you have done many, but it would be interesting to see what is new.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26529
00z CMC..

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Looks like Summer is over across the Upper Midwest. My family in Chicago said the nights have been cold lately with lows in some cases in the upper 40's and low 50's.



Here's the 8 to 14 day
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 3359
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Quoting 21. bwi:
A couple fun images from the Arctic for this morning.

North Pole ice levels from above:

Web cam from o-buoy 7:


I zoomed out the image...Interesting :)

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Thanks for the updated blog Dr. Masters..
With the numbers on Majors you posted it's clear that changes are coming..

Good Morning All..
74 degrees here with 97%rh and dew at 73..
Scattered clouds with winds 5mph from NNW..

Looks to be a decent beach day for those so inclined..

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THIS IS GREAT NEWS!

I Suspect that won't be the case in a week or so.
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21. bwi
A couple fun images from the Arctic for this morning.

North Pole ice levels from above:

Web cam from o-buoy 7:


Here's the link to the movie.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1387
Quoting 7. PensacolaDoug:


Great post Doc! It is however, a big change from the narrative of "more numerous" storms that has been promulgated ad nauseum by the AGW proponents. That doesn't mean this one is accurate either. Is it any wonder that some of us have doubts?



Only by the AGW proponents who don't know the publications. I haven't seen any of us from Dr. Rood's blog putting forth the more numerous storm hypothesis, but then again we read the publications. You should come visit us some day. :)
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I know everyone is waiting anxiously for a solution to my early morning tantrum. I have some news...

Changed my "Alert" location (even though I had never selected an "Alert" location) to somewhere in Nigeria where this WU product is not supported. The banner is still there but it is inactive and "greyed out", and I can live with that.

Have a great day, all.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.