Hurricanes and Climate Change: Huge Dangers, Huge Unknowns

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:57 AM GMT on August 05, 2013

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Hurricane Sandy's enormous $65 billion price tag put that great storm in third place for the most expensive weather-related disaster in U.S. (and world) history, and six of the ten most expensive U.S. weather-related disasters since 1980 have been hurricanes. Thus, how the strongest hurricanes may be affected due a changing climate is a topic of critical concern. Since hurricanes are heat engines that extract heat energy from the oceans to power themselves, hurricane scientists are confident that the very strongest storms will get stronger by the end of the century, when Earth's land and ocean temperatures are expected to warm 2 - 3°C, to levels unmatched since the Eemian Era, 115,000 years ago. Computer modeling work consistently indicates that greenhouse warming will cause the globally averaged intensity of tropical cyclones to shift towards stronger storms, with intensity increases of 2–11% by 2100. But hurricanes are fussy creations, and are sensitive to wind shear and dry air. Although the strongest storms should get stronger when "perfect storm" conditions are present, these "perfect storm" conditions may become less frequent in the future, due to the presence of higher wind shear, altered atmospheric circulation patterns, or more dry air at mid levels of the atmosphere. Indeed, the climate models used to formulate the 2007 IPCC report suggested that we might see the strongest hurricanes getting stronger, but a decrease in the total number of hurricanes in the Atlantic (and worldwide) later this century. However, the latest set of models used to formulate the 2013 IPCC report left open the possibility that we might see in increase in the total number of hurricanes, and and increase in their intensity. Given the conflicting model results, we really don't know how global warming will affect the number of hurricanes and their intensity, but we run the risk of making one of humanity's greatest scourges worse.


Figure 1. The list of most expensive U.S. weather-related disasters since 1980 is dominated by hurricanes.

Climate models and hurricane frequency
The database we have on historical hurricanes does not extend far enough into the past and is not of high enough quality to make many judgements on how human-caused climate change may be affecting these great storms. A landmark 2010 review paper, "Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change", authored by ten top hurricane scientists concluded that the U.S. has not seen any long-term increase in landfalling tropical storms and hurricanes, and that "it remains uncertain whether past changes in tropical cyclone activity have exceeded the variability expected from natural causes" (tropical cyclone is the generic term which encompasses tropical depressions, tropical storms, hurricanes, and typhoons.) Based in part on modeling studies using climate models run for the 2007 IPCC report, the scientists concluded that "it is likely that global mean tropical cyclone frequency will either decrease or remain unchanged owing to greenhouse warming." For example, one of the modeling studies the review paper quoted, Knutson et al. (2008), "Simulated reduction in Atlantic hurricane frequency under twenty-first-century warming conditions", projected a decrease in Atlantic tropical storms by 27% and hurricanes by 18% by the end of the century. An important reason that their model predicted these decreases was due to a predicted increase in wind shear. As I explain in my wind shear tutorial, a large change of wind speed with height over a hurricane creates a shearing force that tends to tear the storm apart. The amount of wind shear is critical in determining whether a hurricane can form or survive.

But a July 2013 study by MIT's Dr. Kerry Emanuel, "Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century", challenged this result. Dr. Emanuel argued that tropical cyclones are likely to become both stronger and more frequent as the climate continues to warm. This increase is most likely to occur in Western North Pacific, with smaller increases in the Atlantic. Dr. Emanuel took output from six newer higher-resolution climate models used to formulate the 2013 IPCC report, and used the output to drive a high-resolution hurricane model. The simulations found that the global frequency of tropical cyclones would increase by 11% to 40% by 2100, with intensity increases as well. The combined effects produced a global increase in Category 3 and stronger hurricanes of 40%. The behavior of these strongest hurricanes is critical, since they do most of the damage we observe. Over the past century, Category 3 - 5 hurricanes accounted for 85% of US hurricane damage, despite representing only 24% of U.S. landfalling storms. Category 4 and 5 hurricanes made up only 6% of all U.S. landfalls, but accounted for 48% of all U.S. damage (if normalized to account for increases in U.S. population and wealth, see Pielke et al., 2008.)


Figure 2. Projected changes in tropical cyclone track density during the 2006-2100 period compared to the 1950-2005 period, using output from six climate models included in the 2013 IPCC report. The global frequency of tropical cyclones is predicted to increase by 11% to 40%, with the largest changes occurring in the Northwest Pacific off the coast of Japan. Smaller increases are predicted for the Atlantic and near Australia. Image credit: Kerry Emanuel, "Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century", Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, July 8, 2013, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1301293110.

However, a study by Knutson et al. (2013), using the same latest-generation climate models as used by Emanuel (2013), but using the output from the models to drive a different high-resolution hurricane model, found a 20% decrease in Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes by 2100. Two other 2013 studies by Villarini et al. and Camargo, also using output from the 2013 IPCC models, found essentially no change in Atlantic tropical cyclones. The reason for the differences, lies, in part, with how much global warming is assumed in the studies. Dr. Emanuel's study, which found an increase in tropical cyclone activity, assumed a worst-case warming situation (RCP 8.5), following the "business as usual" emissions path humanity is currently on. The Knutson et al. study, which found a decrease of 20% in Atlantic tropical cyclones, used a scenario (RCP 4.5) where it was assumed humans will wise up and cause about half of the worst-case greenhouse warming. The study found found "marginally significant" increases in Atlantic Category 4 and 5 hurricanes of 39% - 45% by 2100. These dramatically different results give credence to Dr. Emanuel statement at the end of his paper, "the response of tropical cyclones to projected climate change will remain uncertain for some time to come." The 2013 IPCC report also emphasized the high amount of uncertainty in how climate change might affect hurricanes, stating that there was "low confidence" that we have observed any increases in intense tropical cyclones due to human causes. However, since the 1970s, it is virtually certain (99 - 100% chance) that the frequency and intensity of hurricanes and tropical storms in the North Atlantic has increased, and there is medium confidence that a reduction in small air pollution particles (aerosols) over the North Atlantic caused part of this effect. The report's forecast for the future stated that it is "more likely than not" (50 - 100% chance) that human-caused climate change will cause a substantial increase in intense tropical cyclones in some ocean basins by 2100, with the Western North Pacific and Atlantic being at particular risk. Also, there will likely (66 - 100% chance) be an increase in both global mean tropical cyclone maximum wind speed and rain rates by 2100, and more likely than not (50 - 100% chance) that the increase in the most intense tropical cyclones will be larger than 10% in some basins.


Figure 3. Expected change in Atlantic Category 4 and 5 hurricanes per decade expected by the year 2100, according to Knutson et al. (2013), "Dynamical Downscaling Projections of 21st Century Atlantic Hurricane Activity: CMIP3 and CMIP5 Model-based Scenarios." This research used the latest generation of climate models from the 2013 IPCC report, and found "marginally significant" increases in Atlantic Category 4 and 5 hurricanes of 39% - 45% by 2100.

Commentary
Hurricane damages are currently doubling every ten years without the effect of climate change, according to Pielke et al., 2008. This is primarily due to the increasing population along the coast and increased wealth of the population. The authors theorize that the Great Miami Hurricane of 1926, a Category 4 monster that made a direct hit on Miami Beach, would have caused about $150 billion in damage had it hit in 2005. Thus, by 2015, the same hurricane would do $300 billion in damage, and $600 billion by 2025. This is without considering the impact that accelerating sea level rise will have on storm surge damages. Global sea level rise over the past decade has been about double what it was in the 20th century, and the rate of sea level rise is expected to increase further in the coming decades. Storm surge does the majority of damage in major hurricanes, and storm surges riding on top of higher sea levels are going to do a lot more damage in the coming decades. If we toss in the (controversial) increases in Category 3 and stronger storms like Dr. Emanuel suggests may occur, the hurricane damage math gets very impressive. We can also add onto that the relatively non-controversial increase in tropical cyclone rainfall of 20% expected by 2100, which will sharply increase damages due to fresh water river flooding. It is controversial whether or not we are already be seeing an increase in heavy precipitation events associated with tropical cyclones in the U.S., though. The total number of daily rainfall events exceeding 2" associated with tropical cyclones in the Southeast U.S. on a century time scale has not changed significantly, according to Groisman et al., 2004. But a 2010 study by Kunkel et al., "Recent increases in U.S. heavy precipitation associated with tropical cyclones", found that the number of Southeast U.S. tropical cyclone heavy precipitation events, defined as 1-in-5-year events, more than doubled between 1994 - 2008, compared to the long-term average from 1895 - 2008.


Figure 4. Time series of the 15-year running average (plotted at the end point of the 15-yr blocks) of a Tropical Cyclone Heavy Precipitation Index (red) and 15-year running average of U.S. landfalling hurricanes (blue). Note that there has been no long-term increase in U.S. landfalling hurricanes, but there has been a sharp increase in extreme rainfall events associated with landfalling tropical cyclones--the kind of rainfall events most likely to cause damaging flooding. Image credit: Kunkel et al. (2010), "Recent increases in U.S. heavy precipitation associated with tropical cyclones", Geophysical Research Letters.

It is essential that we limit coastal development in vulnerable coastal areas, particularly along barrier islands, to reduce some of the astronomical price tags hurricanes are going to be causing in the future. Adoption and enforcement of strict building standards is also a must, as well as more reforms to the government's National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), which subsidizes development in high-risk coastal regions that private insurers won't touch. NFIP is now $25 - 30 billion in the red, thanks to Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Sandy. Reform of NFIP is already underway. In 2012, before Sandy hit, Congress passed the Biggert-Waters Flood Insurance Reform Act, which requires people with NFIP policies to pay large premium increases of about 25% per year over the next five years. Naturally, this move has caused major controversy.

References
Camargo, S., (2013), "Global and regional aspects of tropical cyclone activity in the CMIP5 models," J. Climate.

Emanuel, K.A., 2013, "Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century", PNAS, July 8, 2013, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1301293110

Groisman, Pavel Ya, et al., "Contemporary changes of the hydrological cycle over the contiguous United States: Trends derived from in situ observations," Journal of Hydrometeorology 5.1 (2004): 64-85.

Knutson et al., 2010, "Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change", Nature Geoscience 3, 157 - 163, Published online: 21 February 2010 | doi:10.1038/ngeo779

Knutson et al., 2013, Dynamical Downscaling Projections of 21st Century Atlantic Hurricane Activity: CMIP3 and CMIP5 Model-based Scenarios, Journal of Climate 2013 ; e-View
doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00539.1

Pielke, R.A, et al., 2008, "Normalized Hurricane Damage in the United States: 1900 - 2005," Natural Hazards Review, DOI:10.1061/ASCE1527-6988(2008)9:1(29)

Villarini, G, and G.A. Vecchi, 2012, "Twenty-first-century projections of North Atlantic tropical storms from CMIP5 models," Nature Clim. Change 2:604–607.

Related posts
Global warming and the frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes: model results, my 2010 blog post.

Climate Central's analysis of the new 2013 Kerry Emanuel paper.

Goodbye, Miami: Jeff Goodell's sobering 2013 article in Rolling Stone on the challenges Miami faces due to sea level rise and hurricanes.


What the official climate assessments say about climate change and hurricanes
The 2013 IPCC report gives “low confidence”--a 20% chance--that we have observed a human-caused increase in intense hurricanes in some parts of the world. This is a reduction in odds from the 2007 report, which said that it was more likely than not (greater than 50% chance.) The IPCC likely took note of a landmark 2010 review paper, "Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change", authored by ten top hurricane scientists, which concluded that the U.S. had not seen any long-term increase in landfalling tropical storms and hurricanes, and that "it remains uncertain whether past changes in tropical cyclone activity have exceeded the variability expected from natural causes." The 2013 IPCC report predicts that there is a greater than 50% chance (more likely than not) that we will see a human-caused increase in intense hurricanes by 2100 in some regions; this is also a reduction from the 2007 report, which said this would be likely (66% chance or higher.)

The May 2014 United States National Climate Assessment found that “The intensity, frequency, and duration of North Atlantic hurricanes, as well as the frequency of the strongest (Category 4 and 5) hurricanes, have all increased since the early 1980s. The relative contributions of human and natural causes to these increases are still uncertain. Hurricane-associated storm intensity and rainfall rates are projected to increase as the climate continues to warm.”

Jeff Masters

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looks like a bulldozer in the atlantic is clearing the SAL away..
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267. txjac
Quoting 259. Patrap:


I'm really beginning to dislike the color purple
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Quoting 238. nrtiwlnvragn:


That is what the data shows.
From COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE
ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 2 – AUGUST 15, 2013



In general, for the Atlantic basin, MJO Phases 1 and 2 are most conducive for TC formation, while MJO Phases 6 and 7 are the least conducive (Table 2).

Table 2: Normalized values of named storms (NS), named storm days (NSD), hurricanes
(H), hurricane days (HD), major hurricanes (MH), major hurricane days (MHD) and
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) generated by all tropical cyclones forming in each
phase of the MJO over the period from 1974-2007. Normalized values are calculated by
dividing storm activity by the number of days spent in each phase and then multiplying
by 100. This basically provides the level of TC activity that would be expected for 100
days given a particular MJO phase.



I think it is because they are looking at actual hurricanes chance in the Western Hemisphere at the time the MJO is in Octant 1 and 2, not uplift or seeds for hurricanes in Africa.
Member Since: August 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1882
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Quoting 257. Tropicsweatherpr:
This wave is the one to watch down the road if it gets favorable conditions after it emerges Africa.

Do the models develop it?.We have to see how it does once it emerges of Afirca over the water it could fizzle.
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Quoting 257. Tropicsweatherpr:
This wave is the one to watch down the road if it gets favorable conditions after it emerges Africa.


Yes that one too



Interesting to see that the ITCZ and the monsoon trof has risen with most almost all of it above or on 10N and it is expected to rise more this should prompt better looking waves as they traverse across the Atlantic
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Quoting 259. Patrap:


Better watch the tail end of that front for a spinner to start.
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Quoting 255. ncstorm:


depends on who you are murdering..LOL



Aye,,,,,You got that right....those of you that know the handle JFV....I have to kick him out of my FB Page....UNREAL....LOL! BTW now tho...I like having a Mod. person on here as much as possible...makes a big difference.
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Quoting 248. Patrap:
Da, da, da,....dah'

..It was Monday,a August Day in San Fran, we were working day watch outta WU Main,...the tropics were slow.


Bloggers were doing what the do on a slow Monday, some low Genesis chatter, long range peeks and such.

Then the call came,...




Patrap..........I love what you do for charity.I really do...I do the same (silently) Some here seem to think that they(no names) are above the rest....I do what I can and try to respect everyone until they piss me off....I guess that is the so-called woman's prerogative... One of my favorites is"Do As I Say, Not As I Do" I grew up respecting everyone until............
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This wave is the one to watch down the road if it gets favorable conditions after it emerges Africa.

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Quoting 241. hurricanes2018:
someone talking about this tropical wave before!


The irony of that wave is it would have to be named almost immediately if it threatened landmass within 500 miles with TS winds.. if it even survived jumping off Africa... so in theory the name Erin could be totally wasted.
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3231
Quoting 250. TampaSpin:


Ya, I get away with BLOODY MURDER ON HERE.....LMAO


depends on who you are murdering..LOL
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been watching the wave around 45 for a couple days the dry air has the upper hand the tw is no match
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Quoting 246. 62901IL:

Well, its not looking very good.

As expected you have to wait for it to get out of Africa and into the Atlantic

Quoting 251. hurricanes2018:
very warm water in the GOM.

And the NW Caribbean
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252. auburn (Mod)
Quoting 245. PalmBeachWeather:
auburn...That wasn't my question......The question is "was" Do you think certain posters are more of a "Teachers Pet" Than others...? You being a mod would know more than us regular posters.BTW....Love the booze photo


Like I said "I sure hope that isn't the case"
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very warm water in the GOM.
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Quoting 245. PalmBeachWeather:
auburn...That wasn't my question......The question is "was" Do you think certain posters are more of a "Teachers Pet" Than others...? You being a mod would know more than us regular posters.BTW....Love the booze photo


Ya, I get away with BLOODY MURDER ON HERE.....LMAO
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249. auburn (Mod)
It also seems there is a misconception that one can post anything they like as long as its followed up with a radar or weather related post,a little tidbit here and there is OK from time to time,unless it gets out of hand..and will NOT be tolerated when the season picks up.Everyone has access to their own blog and other blogs that allow all kinds of topics..but here in the Drs blog we as mods have to enforce the rules set for this blog by admin.
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Rain getting to my area!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Link
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Quoting 241. hurricanes2018:
someone talking about this tropical wave before!

Well, its not looking very good.
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Quoting 239. auburn:


When the weather is slow as it is now..everyone e gets away with more than they would when its busy,but even then there are limits on this blog(The Drs).We aren't here to take all the fun out of blogging,we all enjoy some fun now and then and it makes for a better time on the blogs..A simple answer to your question is ...I sure hope that isn't the case at all..I try to treat everyone as equals. Also remember,we as mods dont make the rules,its our job to enforce them the best we can. :)
auburn...That wasn't my question......The question is "was" Do you think certain posters are more of a "Teachers Pet" Than others...? You being a mod would know more than us regular posters.BTW....Love the booze photo
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Quoting 241. hurricanes2018:
someone talking about this tropical wave before!

Yeah keep an eye on it

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Quoting 232. Progster:


Now that would be a trip. If Francis et.al. (Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather
in mid-latitudes - GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 39, L06801, doi:10.1029/2012GL051000, 2012) is correct than one can't rule it out. Extreme speculation, but if that were the case, extremely well formed TDs would emerge of the African coast...would recurvature then take place much earlier in the storm life cycle?
Read my mind I was just getting to that point. Another extremity would be the arctic polar ice melting allowing fresh water to mix with the salt water of the atlantic ocean, thus disrupting the ocean currents and having and evaporation effect on rain whic would result in different steering patterns for storms, quite possibly stronger troughs that would lead to early recurves, again pure speculation. I need to actually sit down and dive into the science of it. First place to start in scholarly journals.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8164
Here's some more on MJO phases:

http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/Includes/Docum ents/Publications/klotzbach2012.pdf
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someone talking about this tropical wave before!
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Quoting 238. nrtiwlnvragn:


That is what the data shows.
From COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE
ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 2 – AUGUST 15, 2013



In general, for the Atlantic basin, MJO Phases 1 and 2 are most conducive for TC formation, while MJO Phases 6 and 7 are the least conducive (Table 2).

Table 2: Normalized values of named storms (NS), named storm days (NSD), hurricanes
(H), hurricane days (HD), major hurricanes (MH), major hurricane days (MHD) and
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) generated by all tropical cyclones forming in each
phase of the MJO over the period from 1974-2007. Normalized values are calculated by
dividing storm activity by the number of days spent in each phase and then multiplying
by 100. This basically provides the level of TC activity that would be expected for 100
days given a particular MJO phase.





Hmm interesting
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239. auburn (Mod)
Quoting 228. PalmBeachWeather:
auburn.Just an off the wall comment...Just curious. Do you believe that there are favorite(old time) posters that kinda get away more than others..? No offense..Just wondering


When the weather is slow as it is now..everyone e gets away with more than they would when its busy,but even then there are limits on this blog(The Drs).We aren't here to take all the fun out of blogging,we all enjoy some fun now and then and it makes for a better time on the blogs..A simple answer to your question is ...I sure hope that isn't the case at all..I try to treat everyone as equals. Also remember,we as mods dont make the rules,its our job to enforce them the best we can. :)
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Quoting 225. wunderkidcayman:
Hey guys please explain why 1 and 2 would be favoured for Atlantic and Africa and not 1 and 8


That is what the data shows.
From COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE
ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 2 – AUGUST 15, 2013



In general, for the Atlantic basin, MJO Phases 1 and 2 are most conducive for TC formation, while MJO Phases 6 and 7 are the least conducive (Table 2).

Table 2: Normalized values of named storms (NS), named storm days (NSD), hurricanes
(H), hurricane days (HD), major hurricanes (MH), major hurricane days (MHD) and
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) generated by all tropical cyclones forming in each
phase of the MJO over the period from 1974-2007. Normalized values are calculated by
dividing storm activity by the number of days spent in each phase and then multiplying
by 100. This basically provides the level of TC activity that would be expected for 100
days given a particular MJO phase.



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Quoting 233. washingtonian115:
I see no one posting off topic..

I think it was the Tree thing
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Quoting 233. washingtonian115:
I see no one posting off topic..
Or my question answered wash
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well I am still learning to use this new puter and windows 8,somethings are really better, some things take a lot to get used to but this is the future I guess huh..
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Also FYI Grand Cayman Radar is back online
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Quoting 223. auburn:
please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself.
I see no one posting off topic..
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Quoting 222. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Here is one for you speculation and reverse logic. The Sahara is a desert which at one time was a valley with water. Now suppose it becomes a valley of water again that would be able to fuel a storm before it even left the coast of Africa.


Now that would be a trip. If Francis et.al. (Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather
in mid-latitudes - GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 39, L06801, doi:10.1029/2012GL051000, 2012) is correct than one can't rule it out. Extreme speculation, but if that were the case, extremely well formed TDs would emerge off the African coast...would recurvature then take place much earlier in the storm life cycle?
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Quoting 219. GTstormChaserCaleb:
1. A single mature tree can absorb carbon dioxide at a rate of 22.7 kg/year (48 lbs) and release enough oxygen back into the atmosphere to support 2 human beings.

2. One acre of trees annually consumes the amount of carbon dioxide equivalent to that produced by driving an average car for 41,483km (26,000 miles). That same acre of trees also produces enough oxygen for 18 people to breathe for a year.

3. A 100-ft tree, 18" diameter at its base, produces 2721.5kg (6000lbs) of oxygen.

So, be conscious of the burden you put on ecosystems; reduce, reuse, and recycle- and remember to save every tree as if it’s the last.

its one reason why I was so glad Largo became a "TREE CITY"..we need to save tree's
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Quoting 223. auburn:
please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself.
auburn.Just an off the wall comment...Just curious. Do you believe that there are favorite(old timers) posters that kinda get away more than others..? No offense..Just wondering
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Quoting 212. miguel617:

Not sure if this was posted yet. Cool rain storm.

Source... starts at 0:38s

That is so cool .
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Atlantic ITCZ starting to fill in but no dominant waves as of yet...........With the A-B ridge retreating a little bit over the past several days, the ITCZ is up around the 9N today; it could suppress again over the next few weeks or keep rising towards 10N.

Here is today's Hovmoller with the Atlantic and Pacific ITCZ positions:

Link

See Yall later this evening or tomorrow..........WW.
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Hey guys please explain why 1 and 2 would be favoured for Atlantic and Africa and not 1 and 8
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224. SLU
Quoting 206. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I know I saw the score our guys must have drink too much El Dorado from the night before, missed the game, but Nigel was telling me I can catch them on ESPN3 I also can stream it. Looks like Barbados is leading the pack.


You can watch it right here nonstop without advertisements:

cricpower.com

Barbados is the only team with a 3 - 0 record so far.

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223. auburn (Mod)
please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself.
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Quoting 218. Progster:
I haven't read Dr M's references yet but given the propensity for drought prone areas to suffer from intensified droughts in the future, I expect there would be an increase in the SAL generating area - which would be a negative for hurricane frequency, at least.
Here is one for you speculation and reverse logic. The Sahara is a desert which at one time was a valley with water. Now suppose it becomes a valley of water again that would be able to fuel a storm before it even left the coast of Africa.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8164
So let's see what's happening..More doom on the blog about the 3rd and 4th week of august.Yeah I'm out.In the PRESENT the Atlantic is dead.Until I see a storm out there I'm not going to be on the blog like that.
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Quoting 170. Patrap:
Need a woman gonna hold my hand, won't tell me no lies, make me a happy man.

Patrap........... I see you are quoting songs......Is that ok to do?....Just curious..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1. A single mature tree can absorb carbon dioxide at a rate of 22.7 kg/year (48 lbs) and release enough oxygen back into the atmosphere to support 2 human beings.

2. One acre of trees annually consumes the amount of carbon dioxide equivalent to that produced by driving an average car for 41,483km (26,000 miles). That same acre of trees also produces enough oxygen for 18 people to breathe for a year.

3. A 100-ft tree, 18" diameter at its base, produces 2721.5kg (6000lbs) of oxygen.

So, be conscious of the burden you put on ecosystems; reduce, reuse, and recycle- and remember to save every tree as if it’s the last.

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8164

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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