Hurricanes and Climate Change: Huge Dangers, Huge Unknowns

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:57 AM GMT on August 05, 2013

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Hurricane Sandy's enormous $65 billion price tag put that great storm in third place for the most expensive weather-related disaster in U.S. (and world) history, and six of the ten most expensive U.S. weather-related disasters since 1980 have been hurricanes. Thus, how the strongest hurricanes may be affected due a changing climate is a topic of critical concern. Since hurricanes are heat engines that extract heat energy from the oceans to power themselves, hurricane scientists are confident that the very strongest storms will get stronger by the end of the century, when Earth's land and ocean temperatures are expected to warm 2 - 3°C, to levels unmatched since the Eemian Era, 115,000 years ago. Computer modeling work consistently indicates that greenhouse warming will cause the globally averaged intensity of tropical cyclones to shift towards stronger storms, with intensity increases of 2–11% by 2100. But hurricanes are fussy creations, and are sensitive to wind shear and dry air. Although the strongest storms should get stronger when "perfect storm" conditions are present, these "perfect storm" conditions may become less frequent in the future, due to the presence of higher wind shear, altered atmospheric circulation patterns, or more dry air at mid levels of the atmosphere. Indeed, the climate models used to formulate the 2007 IPCC report suggested that we might see the strongest hurricanes getting stronger, but a decrease in the total number of hurricanes in the Atlantic (and worldwide) later this century. However, the latest set of models used to formulate the 2013 IPCC report left open the possibility that we might see in increase in the total number of hurricanes, and and increase in their intensity. Given the conflicting model results, we really don't know how global warming will affect the number of hurricanes and their intensity, but we run the risk of making one of humanity's greatest scourges worse.


Figure 1. The list of most expensive U.S. weather-related disasters since 1980 is dominated by hurricanes.

Climate models and hurricane frequency
The database we have on historical hurricanes does not extend far enough into the past and is not of high enough quality to make many judgements on how human-caused climate change may be affecting these great storms. A landmark 2010 review paper, "Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change", authored by ten top hurricane scientists concluded that the U.S. has not seen any long-term increase in landfalling tropical storms and hurricanes, and that "it remains uncertain whether past changes in tropical cyclone activity have exceeded the variability expected from natural causes" (tropical cyclone is the generic term which encompasses tropical depressions, tropical storms, hurricanes, and typhoons.) Based in part on modeling studies using climate models run for the 2007 IPCC report, the scientists concluded that "it is likely that global mean tropical cyclone frequency will either decrease or remain unchanged owing to greenhouse warming." For example, one of the modeling studies the review paper quoted, Knutson et al. (2008), "Simulated reduction in Atlantic hurricane frequency under twenty-first-century warming conditions", projected a decrease in Atlantic tropical storms by 27% and hurricanes by 18% by the end of the century. An important reason that their model predicted these decreases was due to a predicted increase in wind shear. As I explain in my wind shear tutorial, a large change of wind speed with height over a hurricane creates a shearing force that tends to tear the storm apart. The amount of wind shear is critical in determining whether a hurricane can form or survive.

But a July 2013 study by MIT's Dr. Kerry Emanuel, "Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century", challenged this result. Dr. Emanuel argued that tropical cyclones are likely to become both stronger and more frequent as the climate continues to warm. This increase is most likely to occur in Western North Pacific, with smaller increases in the Atlantic. Dr. Emanuel took output from six newer higher-resolution climate models used to formulate the 2013 IPCC report, and used the output to drive a high-resolution hurricane model. The simulations found that the global frequency of tropical cyclones would increase by 11% to 40% by 2100, with intensity increases as well. The combined effects produced a global increase in Category 3 and stronger hurricanes of 40%. The behavior of these strongest hurricanes is critical, since they do most of the damage we observe. Over the past century, Category 3 - 5 hurricanes accounted for 85% of US hurricane damage, despite representing only 24% of U.S. landfalling storms. Category 4 and 5 hurricanes made up only 6% of all U.S. landfalls, but accounted for 48% of all U.S. damage (if normalized to account for increases in U.S. population and wealth, see Pielke et al., 2008.)


Figure 2. Projected changes in tropical cyclone track density during the 2006-2100 period compared to the 1950-2005 period, using output from six climate models included in the 2013 IPCC report. The global frequency of tropical cyclones is predicted to increase by 11% to 40%, with the largest changes occurring in the Northwest Pacific off the coast of Japan. Smaller increases are predicted for the Atlantic and near Australia. Image credit: Kerry Emanuel, "Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century", Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, July 8, 2013, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1301293110.

However, a study by Knutson et al. (2013), using the same latest-generation climate models as used by Emanuel (2013), but using the output from the models to drive a different high-resolution hurricane model, found a 20% decrease in Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes by 2100. Two other 2013 studies by Villarini et al. and Camargo, also using output from the 2013 IPCC models, found essentially no change in Atlantic tropical cyclones. The reason for the differences, lies, in part, with how much global warming is assumed in the studies. Dr. Emanuel's study, which found an increase in tropical cyclone activity, assumed a worst-case warming situation (RCP 8.5), following the "business as usual" emissions path humanity is currently on. The Knutson et al. study, which found a decrease of 20% in Atlantic tropical cyclones, used a scenario (RCP 4.5) where it was assumed humans will wise up and cause about half of the worst-case greenhouse warming. The study found found "marginally significant" increases in Atlantic Category 4 and 5 hurricanes of 39% - 45% by 2100. These dramatically different results give credence to Dr. Emanuel statement at the end of his paper, "the response of tropical cyclones to projected climate change will remain uncertain for some time to come." The 2013 IPCC report also emphasized the high amount of uncertainty in how climate change might affect hurricanes, stating that there was "low confidence" that we have observed any increases in intense tropical cyclones due to human causes. However, since the 1970s, it is virtually certain (99 - 100% chance) that the frequency and intensity of hurricanes and tropical storms in the North Atlantic has increased, and there is medium confidence that a reduction in small air pollution particles (aerosols) over the North Atlantic caused part of this effect. The report's forecast for the future stated that it is "more likely than not" (50 - 100% chance) that human-caused climate change will cause a substantial increase in intense tropical cyclones in some ocean basins by 2100, with the Western North Pacific and Atlantic being at particular risk. Also, there will likely (66 - 100% chance) be an increase in both global mean tropical cyclone maximum wind speed and rain rates by 2100, and more likely than not (50 - 100% chance) that the increase in the most intense tropical cyclones will be larger than 10% in some basins.


Figure 3. Expected change in Atlantic Category 4 and 5 hurricanes per decade expected by the year 2100, according to Knutson et al. (2013), "Dynamical Downscaling Projections of 21st Century Atlantic Hurricane Activity: CMIP3 and CMIP5 Model-based Scenarios." This research used the latest generation of climate models from the 2013 IPCC report, and found "marginally significant" increases in Atlantic Category 4 and 5 hurricanes of 39% - 45% by 2100.

Commentary
Hurricane damages are currently doubling every ten years without the effect of climate change, according to Pielke et al., 2008. This is primarily due to the increasing population along the coast and increased wealth of the population. The authors theorize that the Great Miami Hurricane of 1926, a Category 4 monster that made a direct hit on Miami Beach, would have caused about $150 billion in damage had it hit in 2005. Thus, by 2015, the same hurricane would do $300 billion in damage, and $600 billion by 2025. This is without considering the impact that accelerating sea level rise will have on storm surge damages. Global sea level rise over the past decade has been about double what it was in the 20th century, and the rate of sea level rise is expected to increase further in the coming decades. Storm surge does the majority of damage in major hurricanes, and storm surges riding on top of higher sea levels are going to do a lot more damage in the coming decades. If we toss in the (controversial) increases in Category 3 and stronger storms like Dr. Emanuel suggests may occur, the hurricane damage math gets very impressive. We can also add onto that the relatively non-controversial increase in tropical cyclone rainfall of 20% expected by 2100, which will sharply increase damages due to fresh water river flooding. It is controversial whether or not we are already be seeing an increase in heavy precipitation events associated with tropical cyclones in the U.S., though. The total number of daily rainfall events exceeding 2" associated with tropical cyclones in the Southeast U.S. on a century time scale has not changed significantly, according to Groisman et al., 2004. But a 2010 study by Kunkel et al., "Recent increases in U.S. heavy precipitation associated with tropical cyclones", found that the number of Southeast U.S. tropical cyclone heavy precipitation events, defined as 1-in-5-year events, more than doubled between 1994 - 2008, compared to the long-term average from 1895 - 2008.


Figure 4. Time series of the 15-year running average (plotted at the end point of the 15-yr blocks) of a Tropical Cyclone Heavy Precipitation Index (red) and 15-year running average of U.S. landfalling hurricanes (blue). Note that there has been no long-term increase in U.S. landfalling hurricanes, but there has been a sharp increase in extreme rainfall events associated with landfalling tropical cyclones--the kind of rainfall events most likely to cause damaging flooding. Image credit: Kunkel et al. (2010), "Recent increases in U.S. heavy precipitation associated with tropical cyclones", Geophysical Research Letters.

It is essential that we limit coastal development in vulnerable coastal areas, particularly along barrier islands, to reduce some of the astronomical price tags hurricanes are going to be causing in the future. Adoption and enforcement of strict building standards is also a must, as well as more reforms to the government's National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), which subsidizes development in high-risk coastal regions that private insurers won't touch. NFIP is now $25 - 30 billion in the red, thanks to Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Sandy. Reform of NFIP is already underway. In 2012, before Sandy hit, Congress passed the Biggert-Waters Flood Insurance Reform Act, which requires people with NFIP policies to pay large premium increases of about 25% per year over the next five years. Naturally, this move has caused major controversy.

References
Camargo, S., (2013), "Global and regional aspects of tropical cyclone activity in the CMIP5 models," J. Climate.

Emanuel, K.A., 2013, "Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century", PNAS, July 8, 2013, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1301293110

Groisman, Pavel Ya, et al., "Contemporary changes of the hydrological cycle over the contiguous United States: Trends derived from in situ observations," Journal of Hydrometeorology 5.1 (2004): 64-85.

Knutson et al., 2010, "Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change", Nature Geoscience 3, 157 - 163, Published online: 21 February 2010 | doi:10.1038/ngeo779

Knutson et al., 2013, Dynamical Downscaling Projections of 21st Century Atlantic Hurricane Activity: CMIP3 and CMIP5 Model-based Scenarios, Journal of Climate 2013 ; e-View
doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00539.1

Pielke, R.A, et al., 2008, "Normalized Hurricane Damage in the United States: 1900 - 2005," Natural Hazards Review, DOI:10.1061/ASCE1527-6988(2008)9:1(29)

Villarini, G, and G.A. Vecchi, 2012, "Twenty-first-century projections of North Atlantic tropical storms from CMIP5 models," Nature Clim. Change 2:604–607.

Related posts
Global warming and the frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes: model results, my 2010 blog post.

Climate Central's analysis of the new 2013 Kerry Emanuel paper.

Goodbye, Miami: Jeff Goodell's sobering 2013 article in Rolling Stone on the challenges Miami faces due to sea level rise and hurricanes.


What the official climate assessments say about climate change and hurricanes
The 2013 IPCC report gives “low confidence”--a 20% chance--that we have observed a human-caused increase in intense hurricanes in some parts of the world. This is a reduction in odds from the 2007 report, which said that it was more likely than not (greater than 50% chance.) The IPCC likely took note of a landmark 2010 review paper, "Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change", authored by ten top hurricane scientists, which concluded that the U.S. had not seen any long-term increase in landfalling tropical storms and hurricanes, and that "it remains uncertain whether past changes in tropical cyclone activity have exceeded the variability expected from natural causes." The 2013 IPCC report predicts that there is a greater than 50% chance (more likely than not) that we will see a human-caused increase in intense hurricanes by 2100 in some regions; this is also a reduction from the 2007 report, which said this would be likely (66% chance or higher.)

The May 2014 United States National Climate Assessment found that “The intensity, frequency, and duration of North Atlantic hurricanes, as well as the frequency of the strongest (Category 4 and 5) hurricanes, have all increased since the early 1980s. The relative contributions of human and natural causes to these increases are still uncertain. Hurricane-associated storm intensity and rainfall rates are projected to increase as the climate continues to warm.”

Jeff Masters

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SAB at T3.5 with Henriette (55kts).


05/1800 UTC 12.5N 128.7W T3.5/3.5 HENRIETTE -- East Pacific

Waiting on TAFB.

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Quoting 366. HurricaneDevo:
test
Smart to delete that
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Quoting 249. auburn:
It also seems there is a misconception that one can post anything they like as long as its followed up with a radar or weather related post,a little tidbit here and there is OK from time to time,unless it gets out of hand..and will NOT be tolerated when the season picks up.Everyone has access to their own blog and other blogs that allow all kinds of topics..but here in the Drs blog we as mods have to enforce the rules set for this blog by admin.
Right auburn...Just checking to see if the "rules" apply to EVERYONE...Thank you
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test
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Quoting 364. prcane4you:
Who cares about it?


I do
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Quoting 359. Civicane49:
Henriette continues to become better organized, with the ragged eye feature seen on microwave imagery. Should become a hurricane by tonight or tomorrow. It is still too early to tell how it will affect Hawaii by early next week.

Who cares about it?
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Quoting 360. bappit:

Where is Lake O?
Lake Okeechobee....Florida...Second largest lake in the USA....
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Quoting 306. Tribucanes:
There have been 370,000 people killed by climate change fueled weather events in the last decade. A couple weeks ago Climate Progress published a very troubling infographic that expose how deeply the fossil fuel industry is intertwined with members of Congress. More that 51 million, this year, has come in campaign contributions from big oil and gas. As part of this quid pro quo deal, many members of congress are responsible for opposing any legislation that would in any way curb greenhouse gas emissions. While we are hopelessly divided and keep these crooks in office; they are not beholden to us. They are bought and paid for to do the biddings of corporations. When I read reports on climate change, I always like to read the comments too. Between 80-90% of the comments are always that GW isn't happening and it's all wrong. The science and what the populace believe is light years apart. Combine that with a House and Congress that is corporate corrupt to do everything in their power to stop needed legislation to curb greenhouse gas emissions, and you get what your going to get. We will reap this harvest and the sowers are we the people. Wait for the methane releases to combine with the CO2. While many here get it and know the truth, the vast majority don't at all. When the truth is suppressed, bad things happen, and evil, greed, and corruption are allowed to reign. The car's already screaming towards the drop-off, now our "Leaders" are doing everything they can to remove the guardrail too.


Websites with 'progress' in the url or name, are as far left (with the Huffington Post), as Drudge and NewsMax are to the right.

Not that I mind free speech, but have to consider the source, and which way the megaphone is pointed.
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Quoting 356. HurrMichaelOrl:


I'm assuming you are located in Eastern NC. It would be virtually impossible for a Category 5 hurricane to actually hit the State as a Cat. 5, which is a very good thing.
Not out of question if you got fast moving Category 5 going NW into NC like Isabel. Conditions got to be extremely perfect and there's never a Category 5 at that latitude. The farthest north Category 5 is Camille (shocking, right?).
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Quoting 213. redwagon:


I just posted info about our lake, and how difficult it is to re-fill, compared to everybody else's lake. I never said anything about Lake O.

Where is Lake O?
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Henriette continues to become better organized, with the ragged eye feature seen on microwave imagery. Should become a hurricane by tonight or tomorrow. It is still too early to tell how it will affect Hawaii by early next week.

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Quoting 357. wunderkidcayman:

Oooh cool and HWRF has it pretty far S

Hmm can you post me the link thanks



Link
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Quoting 351. nrtiwlnvragn:
Basin scale HWRF seems to like the system coming off of Africa:



Oooh cool and HWRF has it pretty far S

Hmm can you post me the link thanks
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Quoting 343. ncstorm:


yep a cat 5 as that is the only reason I am on this site...I should have named my handle SuperStorm or something like that to give me away..have a good day..



I'm assuming you are located in Eastern NC. It would be virtually impossible for a Category 5 hurricane to actually hit the State as a Cat. 5, which is a very good thing.
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Quoting 347. Envoirment:
TD 11 in the WPAC



ASCAT got some of it in an earler pass:



That was a while ago and I think it might of missed its strongest winds. Should become a TS later today.


Who declared 11W and what happened to 10W?
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Thanks Dr. Masters for the summary of this research and the commentary. What about the excessive rainfall caused by climate change?

I wonder what the population increase has been for the area where Sandy hit, since the last storm in that same area, the Great Hurricane of 1938?

Did they all think it would never happen again? More likely, it was just out of mind.

Hurricanes like Katrina are nothing new, they just always dodged the bullet. Otherwise they would not have even had levies to fail in New Orleans to being with. My elderly relatives south of New Orleans, they lost their house in Port Sulphur (Plaquemines Parish), said, "We stayed too long", because they've known all their lives it was inevitable. Most folks down there moved up to Point a La Hache, or Belle Chase when they got the chance.

I hate to see Insurance going up, but it is part of the Free Market exercise. It may be what starts the migration from the perilous and risky coast. It may be what overcomes the shortsightedness of Sandy-like residents. My relatives have not moved back.




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Quoting 306. Tribucanes:
There have been 370,000 people killed by climate change fueled weather events in the last decade. A couple weeks ago Climate Progress published a very troubling infographic that expose how deeply the fossil fuel industry is intertwined with members of Congress. More that 51 million, this year, has come in campaign contributions from big oil and gas. As part of this quid pro quo deal, many members of congress are responsible for opposing any legislation that would in any way curb greenhouse gas emissions. While we are hopelessly divided and keep these crooks in office; they are not beholden to us. They are bought and paid for to do the biddings of corporations. When I read reports on climate change, I always like to read the comments too. Between 80-90% of the comments are always that GW isn't happening and it's all wrong. The science and what the populace believe is light years apart. Combine that with a House and Congress that is corporate corrupt to do everything in their power to stop needed legislation to curb greenhouse gas emissions, and you get what your going to get. We will reap this harvest and the sowers are we the people. Wait for the methane releases to combine with the CO2. While many here get it and know the truth, the vast majority don't at all. When the truth is suppressed, bad things happen, and evil, greed, and corruption are allowed to reign. The car's already screaming towards the drop-off, now our "Leaders" are doing everything they can to remove the guardrail too.


Oh yea, we know what the real truth is......
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Quoting 351. nrtiwlnvragn:
Basin scale HWRF seems to like the system coming off of Africa:


its look like a hurricane
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Basin scale HWRF seems to like the system coming off of Africa:


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Quoting 348. ncstorm:
LOL..I'll be back later..
see ya later nc
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53811
Quoting 346. washingtonian115:
Desperation is setting in on the blog...

For sure, people are showing 1015+ pressure, that the models ALL show being nothing.
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LOL..I'll be back later..
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TD 11 in the WPAC



ASCAT got some of it in an earler pass:



That was a while ago and I think it might of missed its strongest winds. Should become a TS later today.
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Desperation is setting in on the blog...
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16971
There we go, right as we pass August 15th as the MJO returns to our basin. Here's the 12z GFS, 240 hours.
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Quoting 343. ncstorm:


yep a cat 5 as that is the only reason I am on this site...I should have named my handle SuperStorm or something like that to give me away..have a good day..

Um, that is my name cause that was the year of the Superstorm lady, and it was an amazing weather event which is why I chose that. Reported.
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Quoting 341. SuperStorm093:


We will see, but its obvious you are reaching. Your finding anything in the waters lol, a 1013 low pressure that basically has no precip. Reaching, seems like you just want a storm to hit you.


yep a cat 5 as that is the only reason I am on this site...I should have named my handle SuperStorm or something like that to give me away..have a good day..

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TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON AUG 05 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N55W TO 19N51W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE WAS REPOSITIONED FARTHER SOUTH BASED ON OVERALL
CONTINUITY OVER THE PAST 24 TO 48 HOURS AS WELL AS EXAMINATION
OF SATELLITE BASED WINDS...SCATTEROMETER DATA...AND THE 700 MB
GLOBAL MODEL STREAMLINES AND RELATIVE VORTICITY FIELDS. THIS
WAVE HAS APPEARED TO HAVE ABSORBED MID-LATITUDE MID-LEVEL ENERGY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC AND ENERGY PROPAGATING CROSS-EQUATORIAL
FROM THE SOUTH ATLC ALONG THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST. SAHARAN DUST
AND THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER CONTINUES TO PLAY A ROLE IN LIMITING
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. CURRENTLY NO SIGNIFICANT
DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

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Quoting 335. ncstorm:


we'll see..:)


We will see, but its obvious you are reaching. Your finding anything in the waters lol, a 1013 low pressure that basically has no precip. Reaching, seems like you just want a storm to hit you.
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Huh there's a storm out in the east pacific?.Huh where?.I don't see one.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16971
339. VR46L
Quoting 332. mitchelace5:


Probably 45 mph winds I'm guessing.


But it is the CFS ... 7 weeks out ... So not reliable like I said entertainment purposes ...
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Random weather .gif of the day!

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Hard to believe if this was 1992 we'd still be almost 2 weeks away from our first named storm...
Can't imagine what this place would look like if we had to wait that long for a storm!
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basin sea level pressure 36 hr forecast

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53811
Quoting 327. SuperStorm093:
ncstorm, reaching .


we'll see..:)
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Quoting 324. txjac:


I was out by a curb in front of my place this morning. I happened to look down and saw that the grass was pulled away from the curb by about 2-3 inches ...and it went down about 6-8 inches. Took a picture of it ...wish I knew how to post it


I don't doubt it. I've worked as an EMT for a few outdoor events here over the last couple of years and we have seen a lot of foot injuries due to folks getting twisted up in ground cracks. I've also had to re-hang the gate at my house twice in three years as one side of the fence has dropped almost eight inches. Unbelievable. Also Austin should be going to Stage 3 watering restrictions shortly.
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Henriette looks like it's on its way to becoming a hurricane as soon as tonight:



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Quoting 331. VR46L:


Thats what I said.... but a low end one at that ..


Probably 45 mph winds I'm guessing.
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331. VR46L
Quoting 318. mitchelace5:


Nah. 1006 mb is a TS.


Thats what I said.... but a low end one at that ..
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Quoting 327. SuperStorm093:
ncstorm, reaching man.
reaching woman you mean

and she is showing stuff just like everyone else is
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53811
Quoting 316. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Slowly but surely coming around, need to get rid of the SAL and then its off to the races:


Well that's more what I'm expecting for when it gets active again. However, that Bermuda high is way far out to the northeast in this model which I would expect to allow recurves, although I have a feeling the steering pattern/Bermuda high will be a lot different once we actually get there.
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ncstorm, reaching man.
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actually the CMC is showing it as the Navgem as well..

Hispanola kills it though..

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Looks like the 12z CMC has this wave coming off Africa just far enough south to have a shot at development, pretty much goes right over or just south of the CV islands rather than north of them like the GFS has been showing:



It doesn't really develop beyond what is shown there at 114 hours though, more of a slow weakening trend as it moves west. Dry air didn't look like a problem, maybe a little shear combined with it still being a little too far north caused it problems.
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324. txjac
Quoting 320. calkevin77:


Not too worry. The ensuing parched ground chasms that are opening up around here will surely swallow all that purple :)


I was out by a curb in front of my place this morning. I happened to look down and saw that the grass was pulled away from the curb by about 2-3 inches ...and it went down about 6-8 inches. Took a picture of it ...wish I knew how to post it
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Another not run of the GFS another run of not showing anything except for hints. It could show hints and improvements, but man, we could be waiting for a LONG time here I think.
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some potential perhaps? or am I just reaching?? :)
12z CMC-24 hours




12z GFS




also..the Navgem has been showing a wave moving up towards the Hispanola islands--mind you its the Navgem and right now the only model that is seeing this..

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321. txjac
Currently 93.2, real feel is 106.
Cant wait to "feel" what this afternoon brings.

However, tomorrow I will be on my way to cooler weather!
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Quoting 267. txjac:


I'm really beginning to dislike the color purple


Not too worry. The ensuing parched ground chasms that are opening up around here will surely swallow all that purple :)
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.