Hurricanes and Climate Change: Huge Dangers, Huge Unknowns

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:57 AM GMT on August 05, 2013

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Hurricane Sandy's enormous $65 billion price tag put that great storm in third place for the most expensive weather-related disaster in U.S. (and world) history, and six of the ten most expensive U.S. weather-related disasters since 1980 have been hurricanes. Thus, how the strongest hurricanes may be affected due a changing climate is a topic of critical concern. Since hurricanes are heat engines that extract heat energy from the oceans to power themselves, hurricane scientists are confident that the very strongest storms will get stronger by the end of the century, when Earth's land and ocean temperatures are expected to warm 2 - 3°C, to levels unmatched since the Eemian Era, 115,000 years ago. Computer modeling work consistently indicates that greenhouse warming will cause the globally averaged intensity of tropical cyclones to shift towards stronger storms, with intensity increases of 2–11% by 2100. But hurricanes are fussy creations, and are sensitive to wind shear and dry air. Although the strongest storms should get stronger when "perfect storm" conditions are present, these "perfect storm" conditions may become less frequent in the future, due to the presence of higher wind shear, altered atmospheric circulation patterns, or more dry air at mid levels of the atmosphere. Indeed, the climate models used to formulate the 2007 IPCC report suggested that we might see the strongest hurricanes getting stronger, but a decrease in the total number of hurricanes in the Atlantic (and worldwide) later this century. However, the latest set of models used to formulate the 2013 IPCC report left open the possibility that we might see in increase in the total number of hurricanes, and and increase in their intensity. Given the conflicting model results, we really don't know how global warming will affect the number of hurricanes and their intensity, but we run the risk of making one of humanity's greatest scourges worse.


Figure 1. The list of most expensive U.S. weather-related disasters since 1980 is dominated by hurricanes.

Climate models and hurricane frequency
The database we have on historical hurricanes does not extend far enough into the past and is not of high enough quality to make many judgements on how human-caused climate change may be affecting these great storms. A landmark 2010 review paper, "Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change", authored by ten top hurricane scientists concluded that the U.S. has not seen any long-term increase in landfalling tropical storms and hurricanes, and that "it remains uncertain whether past changes in tropical cyclone activity have exceeded the variability expected from natural causes" (tropical cyclone is the generic term which encompasses tropical depressions, tropical storms, hurricanes, and typhoons.) Based in part on modeling studies using climate models run for the 2007 IPCC report, the scientists concluded that "it is likely that global mean tropical cyclone frequency will either decrease or remain unchanged owing to greenhouse warming." For example, one of the modeling studies the review paper quoted, Knutson et al. (2008), "Simulated reduction in Atlantic hurricane frequency under twenty-first-century warming conditions", projected a decrease in Atlantic tropical storms by 27% and hurricanes by 18% by the end of the century. An important reason that their model predicted these decreases was due to a predicted increase in wind shear. As I explain in my wind shear tutorial, a large change of wind speed with height over a hurricane creates a shearing force that tends to tear the storm apart. The amount of wind shear is critical in determining whether a hurricane can form or survive.

But a July 2013 study by MIT's Dr. Kerry Emanuel, "Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century", challenged this result. Dr. Emanuel argued that tropical cyclones are likely to become both stronger and more frequent as the climate continues to warm. This increase is most likely to occur in Western North Pacific, with smaller increases in the Atlantic. Dr. Emanuel took output from six newer higher-resolution climate models used to formulate the 2013 IPCC report, and used the output to drive a high-resolution hurricane model. The simulations found that the global frequency of tropical cyclones would increase by 11% to 40% by 2100, with intensity increases as well. The combined effects produced a global increase in Category 3 and stronger hurricanes of 40%. The behavior of these strongest hurricanes is critical, since they do most of the damage we observe. Over the past century, Category 3 - 5 hurricanes accounted for 85% of US hurricane damage, despite representing only 24% of U.S. landfalling storms. Category 4 and 5 hurricanes made up only 6% of all U.S. landfalls, but accounted for 48% of all U.S. damage (if normalized to account for increases in U.S. population and wealth, see Pielke et al., 2008.)


Figure 2. Projected changes in tropical cyclone track density during the 2006-2100 period compared to the 1950-2005 period, using output from six climate models included in the 2013 IPCC report. The global frequency of tropical cyclones is predicted to increase by 11% to 40%, with the largest changes occurring in the Northwest Pacific off the coast of Japan. Smaller increases are predicted for the Atlantic and near Australia. Image credit: Kerry Emanuel, "Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century", Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, July 8, 2013, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1301293110.

However, a study by Knutson et al. (2013), using the same latest-generation climate models as used by Emanuel (2013), but using the output from the models to drive a different high-resolution hurricane model, found a 20% decrease in Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes by 2100. Two other 2013 studies by Villarini et al. and Camargo, also using output from the 2013 IPCC models, found essentially no change in Atlantic tropical cyclones. The reason for the differences, lies, in part, with how much global warming is assumed in the studies. Dr. Emanuel's study, which found an increase in tropical cyclone activity, assumed a worst-case warming situation (RCP 8.5), following the "business as usual" emissions path humanity is currently on. The Knutson et al. study, which found a decrease of 20% in Atlantic tropical cyclones, used a scenario (RCP 4.5) where it was assumed humans will wise up and cause about half of the worst-case greenhouse warming. The study found found "marginally significant" increases in Atlantic Category 4 and 5 hurricanes of 39% - 45% by 2100. These dramatically different results give credence to Dr. Emanuel statement at the end of his paper, "the response of tropical cyclones to projected climate change will remain uncertain for some time to come." The 2013 IPCC report also emphasized the high amount of uncertainty in how climate change might affect hurricanes, stating that there was "low confidence" that we have observed any increases in intense tropical cyclones due to human causes. However, since the 1970s, it is virtually certain (99 - 100% chance) that the frequency and intensity of hurricanes and tropical storms in the North Atlantic has increased, and there is medium confidence that a reduction in small air pollution particles (aerosols) over the North Atlantic caused part of this effect. The report's forecast for the future stated that it is "more likely than not" (50 - 100% chance) that human-caused climate change will cause a substantial increase in intense tropical cyclones in some ocean basins by 2100, with the Western North Pacific and Atlantic being at particular risk. Also, there will likely (66 - 100% chance) be an increase in both global mean tropical cyclone maximum wind speed and rain rates by 2100, and more likely than not (50 - 100% chance) that the increase in the most intense tropical cyclones will be larger than 10% in some basins.


Figure 3. Expected change in Atlantic Category 4 and 5 hurricanes per decade expected by the year 2100, according to Knutson et al. (2013), "Dynamical Downscaling Projections of 21st Century Atlantic Hurricane Activity: CMIP3 and CMIP5 Model-based Scenarios." This research used the latest generation of climate models from the 2013 IPCC report, and found "marginally significant" increases in Atlantic Category 4 and 5 hurricanes of 39% - 45% by 2100.

Commentary
Hurricane damages are currently doubling every ten years without the effect of climate change, according to Pielke et al., 2008. This is primarily due to the increasing population along the coast and increased wealth of the population. The authors theorize that the Great Miami Hurricane of 1926, a Category 4 monster that made a direct hit on Miami Beach, would have caused about $150 billion in damage had it hit in 2005. Thus, by 2015, the same hurricane would do $300 billion in damage, and $600 billion by 2025. This is without considering the impact that accelerating sea level rise will have on storm surge damages. Global sea level rise over the past decade has been about double what it was in the 20th century, and the rate of sea level rise is expected to increase further in the coming decades. Storm surge does the majority of damage in major hurricanes, and storm surges riding on top of higher sea levels are going to do a lot more damage in the coming decades. If we toss in the (controversial) increases in Category 3 and stronger storms like Dr. Emanuel suggests may occur, the hurricane damage math gets very impressive. We can also add onto that the relatively non-controversial increase in tropical cyclone rainfall of 20% expected by 2100, which will sharply increase damages due to fresh water river flooding. It is controversial whether or not we are already be seeing an increase in heavy precipitation events associated with tropical cyclones in the U.S., though. The total number of daily rainfall events exceeding 2" associated with tropical cyclones in the Southeast U.S. on a century time scale has not changed significantly, according to Groisman et al., 2004. But a 2010 study by Kunkel et al., "Recent increases in U.S. heavy precipitation associated with tropical cyclones", found that the number of Southeast U.S. tropical cyclone heavy precipitation events, defined as 1-in-5-year events, more than doubled between 1994 - 2008, compared to the long-term average from 1895 - 2008.


Figure 4. Time series of the 15-year running average (plotted at the end point of the 15-yr blocks) of a Tropical Cyclone Heavy Precipitation Index (red) and 15-year running average of U.S. landfalling hurricanes (blue). Note that there has been no long-term increase in U.S. landfalling hurricanes, but there has been a sharp increase in extreme rainfall events associated with landfalling tropical cyclones--the kind of rainfall events most likely to cause damaging flooding. Image credit: Kunkel et al. (2010), "Recent increases in U.S. heavy precipitation associated with tropical cyclones", Geophysical Research Letters.

It is essential that we limit coastal development in vulnerable coastal areas, particularly along barrier islands, to reduce some of the astronomical price tags hurricanes are going to be causing in the future. Adoption and enforcement of strict building standards is also a must, as well as more reforms to the government's National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), which subsidizes development in high-risk coastal regions that private insurers won't touch. NFIP is now $25 - 30 billion in the red, thanks to Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Sandy. Reform of NFIP is already underway. In 2012, before Sandy hit, Congress passed the Biggert-Waters Flood Insurance Reform Act, which requires people with NFIP policies to pay large premium increases of about 25% per year over the next five years. Naturally, this move has caused major controversy.

References
Camargo, S., (2013), "Global and regional aspects of tropical cyclone activity in the CMIP5 models," J. Climate.

Emanuel, K.A., 2013, "Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century", PNAS, July 8, 2013, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1301293110

Groisman, Pavel Ya, et al., "Contemporary changes of the hydrological cycle over the contiguous United States: Trends derived from in situ observations," Journal of Hydrometeorology 5.1 (2004): 64-85.

Knutson et al., 2010, "Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change", Nature Geoscience 3, 157 - 163, Published online: 21 February 2010 | doi:10.1038/ngeo779

Knutson et al., 2013, Dynamical Downscaling Projections of 21st Century Atlantic Hurricane Activity: CMIP3 and CMIP5 Model-based Scenarios, Journal of Climate 2013 ; e-View
doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00539.1

Pielke, R.A, et al., 2008, "Normalized Hurricane Damage in the United States: 1900 - 2005," Natural Hazards Review, DOI:10.1061/ASCE1527-6988(2008)9:1(29)

Villarini, G, and G.A. Vecchi, 2012, "Twenty-first-century projections of North Atlantic tropical storms from CMIP5 models," Nature Clim. Change 2:604–607.

Related posts
Global warming and the frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes: model results, my 2010 blog post.

Climate Central's analysis of the new 2013 Kerry Emanuel paper.

Goodbye, Miami: Jeff Goodell's sobering 2013 article in Rolling Stone on the challenges Miami faces due to sea level rise and hurricanes.


What the official climate assessments say about climate change and hurricanes
The 2013 IPCC report gives “low confidence”--a 20% chance--that we have observed a human-caused increase in intense hurricanes in some parts of the world. This is a reduction in odds from the 2007 report, which said that it was more likely than not (greater than 50% chance.) The IPCC likely took note of a landmark 2010 review paper, "Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change", authored by ten top hurricane scientists, which concluded that the U.S. had not seen any long-term increase in landfalling tropical storms and hurricanes, and that "it remains uncertain whether past changes in tropical cyclone activity have exceeded the variability expected from natural causes." The 2013 IPCC report predicts that there is a greater than 50% chance (more likely than not) that we will see a human-caused increase in intense hurricanes by 2100 in some regions; this is also a reduction from the 2007 report, which said this would be likely (66% chance or higher.)

The May 2014 United States National Climate Assessment found that “The intensity, frequency, and duration of North Atlantic hurricanes, as well as the frequency of the strongest (Category 4 and 5) hurricanes, have all increased since the early 1980s. The relative contributions of human and natural causes to these increases are still uncertain. Hurricane-associated storm intensity and rainfall rates are projected to increase as the climate continues to warm.”

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 517. MisterPerfect:
we all know Doc M puts a climate change topic up when things are boring in the trops...its like a rain delay in baseball.

just somem to keep us on our toes is all
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53790
Pat and Natalie wikipedia 1880 Atlantic Hurricane Season then follow each season up until 1930 and count how many tropical storms and hurricanes hit the West Coast of FL. Pay particular attention to where some originate from, in fact one started in the western gulf and made a hard right turn and hit somewhere up in the big bend area. One year had 3 storms make landfall on the west coast of FL. Now count how many tropical storms and hurricanes hit the West Coast of FL. from 1960 to 2010. I'm willing to bet the former had more hits than the latter. Since the definition of climate is the composite or generally prevailing weather conditions of a region, as temperature, air pressure, humidity, precipitation, sunshine, cloudiness, and winds, throughout the year, averaged over a series of years. Climate change is changes in those prevailing weather conditions which also includes steering of tropical systems.

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8194
we all know Doc M puts a climate change topic up when things are boring in the trops...its like a rain delay in baseball.

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Uploaded on Jan 19, 2012

Global temperatures have warmed significantly since 1880, the beginning of what scientists call the "modern record." At this time, the coverage provided by weather stations allowed for essentially global temperature data. As greenhouse gas emissions from energy production, industry and vehicles have increased, temperatures have climbed, most notably since the late 1970s.

In this animation of temperature data from 1880-2011, reds indicate temperatures higher than the average during a baseline period of 1951-1980, while blues indicate lower temperatures than the baseline average. (Data source: NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies.

Visualization credit: NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio)



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128256
Quoting 511. PalmBeachWeather:
KEEPER..Are you saying I need to lose weight?
no never you are fine just the way u are
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53790
Today's Climate Change Proves Much Faster Than Changes in Past 65 Million Years

Climate change is occurring 10 to 100 times faster than in the past and ecosystems will find it hard to adjust

By Anne C. Mulkern and ClimateWire


The climate is changing at a pace that's far faster than anything seen in 65 million years, a report out of Stanford University says.

The amount of global temperature increase and the short time over which it's occurred create a change in velocity that outstrips previous periods of warming or cooling, the scientists said in research published in today's Science.

...
Ecosystems shifting a yard a day
The changes that are expected ahead will happen much faster than the rate at which species and ecosystems typically are able to adjust, Field said.

Plants and animals essentially would need to move about 1 yard each day farther north or higher in elevation to maintain the conditions they prefer, Field said. While farmers and others can shift where they grow crops, Field said, it's different for a butterfly or a maple tree.


If global temperatures rise 1.5 degrees Celsius over the next century, the rate will be about 10 times faster than what's been seen before, said Christopher Field, one of the scientists on the study. Keeping the temperature increase that small will require aggressive mitigation, he said.

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id= todays-climate-change-proves-much-faster-than-chan ges-in-past-65-million-years
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Quoting 509. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
that's all we can do just have to be the bigger man or woman what ever the case
KEEPER..Are you saying I need to lose weight?
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5858
Looks like latest Euro recurves rather soon after exiting Africa the upcoming TW to be watched.
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Quoting 504. PalmBeachWeather:
Ok KEEPER..Thanks...Just trying to keep it all smooth on my end
that's all we can do just have to be the bigger man or woman what ever the case
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53790
Quoting 492. galvestonhurricane:
Nea is the ugliest, meanest, most bitter troll to grace this site. This blog became a lot more enjoyable after I ignored him. Also, if you don't want to discuss AGW, just start ignoring people.
LOL.That she is
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5858
update!!
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 15 Comments: 29241
Quoting 447. Kumo:
This is not to say that the right is the only guilty party, I've also noticed that the left has been ignoring the unusually cold temps we've had in the northern states this year, but when we have a record high somewhere, it is front page news.
Can you define what you mean by "the left has been ignoring the unusually cold temps"? Because I've read of that cool snap in many places, including locations that one would normally consider to have a leftist bent. Dr. Masters has covered them, as has Christopher Burt. Ditto Climate Progress. Ditto Skeptical Science. And so on. Now, there have been some cool temps around the nation over the past week. But as the image below shows, pretty much the only spot in the northern hemisphere (outside the Arctic) that experienced unseasonal cold last week was the northern part of the central and eastern US; most of the rest of the NH has been at or above--sometimes well-above--normal. (And just look at those anomalies in Antarctica!)

hot/cold

At any rate, it's certainly not true that "...when we have a record high somewhere, it is front page news". When we have many tens of thousands of them more than we have record lows, yes, that generates headlines. And when dozens of all-time highs are set at numerous stations, that too is generally of greater newsworthiness than a bunch of standard daily lows, such as happened last week. The bottom line is that as the planet warms, there have will continue to be an increasingly larger ratio of of high temperature records to low temperature ones, so they'll likely comprise an increasingly larger ratio of headlines...
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Quoting 492. galvestonhurricane:
[Quoted comment was removed due to it being a personal attack.]


Dr. Masters' blog today is titled "Hurricanes and Climate Change: Huge Dangers, Huge Unknowns". As the subject of the blog is tropical weather and climate change, discussion of AGW is relevant.

And personally, I don't think personal attacks are ever relevant or warranted.
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Quoting 500. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
actually WPB it got flagged by the whole comm nothing on our end
Ok KEEPER..Thanks...Just trying to keep it all smooth on my end
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PalmBeachWeather, Nea can be condescending, grating, and very forceful in his comments, I get it. He's either very popular with bloggers or very unpopular. But when you turn to character assassination, you've become the very thing you accuse him of being. This blog is usually very respectful of others. I hope we can continue to model this respect for our younger bloggers here. Many sites are full of hate, rudeness, and discourse; where no debate can be had. WU is one of my favorites, because here, everyone seems to respect others views and opinions even if they strongly disagree with them. Never seen you react like that before PalmBeachWeather, emotions can be hard to check sometimes; hope you feel better.
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A-Rod likely to appeal 211-game ban; 12 agree to 50 games

MLB suspended Alex Rodriguez through the 2014 season for his Biogenesis involvement, effective Thursday. Twelve others, including Nelson Cruz, Jhonny Peralta and Everth Cabrera, agreed to 50-game bans.
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 15 Comments: 29241
Quoting 482. PalmBeachWeather:
I remark about a comment that has been commented on previously....My comment has been removed...The other posters comment is still there....I spend my $10,,,Why in the world do I get deleted??? Is it some secret "favorite room" that I am not aware of???
actually WPB it got flagged by the whole comm nothing on our end
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53790
TD 10W in WPAC.

WTPN31 PGTW 052100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 13.0N 113.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.0N 113.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 14.5N 111.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 16.3N 109.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 18.0N 107.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 19.7N 106.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 22.3N 104.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 25.5N 103.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 13.4N 113.1E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 656 NM
SOUTHEASTWARD OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 060300Z, 060900Z, 061500Z AND 062100Z. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR
HI 050851Z AUG 13 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW
050900).

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14246
Quoting 486. rmbjoe1954:


We will soon be up to our ears in tropical systems. Until then I will lurk most of the time.


You're joking right? I mean, hurricanes can't run, they don't have legs for crying out loud. You must be thinking of crabs.
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128256
495. yoboi
Quoting 485. mikatnight:


At least the GOP keeps putting in their bills a provision to defund ACORN. The fact that ACORN hasn't existed for the last 3 years appears not to bother them, but that would be reality and they're having no truck with that.


please finish the story.....the DEMS keep voting to fund it.............
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Quoting Gearsts:
Hello

Thanks again! It seems as if we'll a Cold-neutral conditions throughout most of the season. This could allow for very favorable conditions for the peak of the season.
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NASA: Climate Change; A Warming World (HD)

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128256
Metro Palm Beach County
Special Statement
Statement as of 4:07 PM EDT on August 05, 2013

... A significant weather advisory is in effect for northeastern Palm
Beach County... for frequent to excessive lightning and funnel
clouds...

* until 445 PM EDT

* at 404 PM EDT... National Weather Service meteorologists detected a
line of strong thunderstorms along a line extending from 4 miles
west of Jupiter to 8 miles northwest of North County Airport... and
moving south at 10 mph.

* The line of storms will affect...
Jupiter farms...
Jupiter...
caloosa...
North County Airport...
Juno Beach...
fau north Campus...
and surrounding communities.

This activity was also developing in an environment favorable for the
formation of funnel clouds. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and
local media for additional updates and possible warnings.

Funnel clouds occasionally touch down and produce tornadoes with
little or no warning. Move indoors and stay away from windows.

Lat... Lon 2678 8036 2696 8041 2696 8015 2698 8014
2697 8008 2691 8005 2681 8003
time... Mot... loc 2006z 338deg 9kt 2693 8016 2691 8032
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...looks like we need something to track - and quick ;)

I'm thinking that the tail end of the front off the East Coast may bear watching...

Pat, pass the Fresca :)
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Quoting 487. luvtogolf:


I commented on your post. I edited and removed your comment although I still plus it many times over.
Thank you.....I feel I am right
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5858
488. yoboi
Quoting 463. SouthernIllinois:

Hang on Pat. We had one below average year of tornadoes in the US this year and now that is climate change. Don't you need a baseline of averages (typically a compilation of data 30 years or greater)to work with. I mean we're talking about climatology, right?



You are correct....30 yrs is the benchmark......anything less is just cherry picking data..............
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Quoting 482. PalmBeachWeather:
I remark about a comment that has been commented on previously....My comment has been removed...The other posters comment is still there....I spend my $10,,,Why in the world do I get deleted??? Is it some secret "favorite room" that I am not aware of???


I commented on your post. I edited and removed your comment although I still plus it many times over.
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Quoting 458. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Right now I would take a hurricane running up my backside than reading through some of these rude posts in here.


We will soon be up to our ears in tropical systems. Until then I will lurk most of the time.
Member Since: June 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1325
Quoting 456. yoboi:



Do you really think there is a false divide????


At least the GOP keeps putting in their bills a provision to defund ACORN. The fact that ACORN hasn't existed for the last 3 years appears not to bother them, but that would be reality and they're having no truck with that.
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Quoting 463. SouthernIllinois:

Hang on Pat. We had one below average year of tornadoes in the US this year and now that is climate change. Don't you need a baseline of averages (typically a compilation of data 30 years or greater)to work with. I mean we're talking about climatology, right?


We're having more waterspouts in Florida than I can ever remember. I'm assuming that the increase is a result of global warming.

I guess the entire Mid-West is thanking Global Warming for their cool summer.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I remark about a comment that has been commented on previously....My comment has been removed...The other posters comment is still there....I spend my $10,,,Why in the world do I get deleted??? Is it some secret "favorite room" that I am not aware of???
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5858
Quoting 471. nigel20:

Hi Gearsts! Can you post the overall SST Anomaly? TIA!
Hello
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480. yoboi
Quoting 470. Naga5000:


Yes, the false divide is quite evident in polling. From October 2012, Pew Research. Link

I don't think there is an inherent behavior associated with political party or ideology that equates to the type of division we see along those lines with the accepted science.

I think we tend to go along with what are associated political parties are telling us, and that, at least in this example, is creating a divide that simply doesn't exist on other big scientific issues. (not to say that there aren't science issues we see a divide down party lines on, just that usually those issues tend to have a larger role at play like religious belief see: New Earth Creationists versus Geological Age of the Earth)



Oh ok I see what ya are saying I agree with you......
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Quoting 463. SouthernIllinois:

Hang on Pat. We had one below average year of tornadoes in the US this year and now that is climate change. Don't you need a baseline of averages (typically a compilation of data 30 years or greater)to work with. I mean we're talking about climatology, right?
I am about to show you and Pat and example of climate change using storm tracks over a span of decades. Tell me what you guys think. It involves the west coast of FL.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8194
Published on Feb 13, 2013

I spent Tuesday in Ann Arbor, at the regional Town Hall meeting to review the latest US Global Change Research program report on climate change impacts. More on that in later posts.

http://ncadac.globalchange.gov

As I keep dropping in on meetings like this, I learn more and more that Woody Allen was right. 90 percent of life is showing up.

I bumped into Dr. Jeff Masters -- which seemed right on script, because I needed a meteorological ninja to beat down the predictable flurry of climate deniers pumping the "it's snowing outside, there can't be climate change" meme. Short, sweet, and to the point.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128256
anyone know what the models are showing regarding when the dry air/high pressure suppression/SAL is going to retreat so atl. activity can begin again?
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Quoting 415. DFWdad:


I will take your point that Romm is educated and well spoken, an thus very influential. I was not attempting to insult anyone's intelligence, and in fact did not bring it up.

But you missed my point... the site a megaphone for the left. Just a quick search of the internet highlights that web site's place in the argument.

Here is an example, Check this out...
"The Center for American Progress funds several blogs that disseminate Left-wing propaganda. Think Progress is probably the best know, but I’ve come across “Climate Progress” recently for the first time. In their own words:

Climate Progress is dedicated to providing the progressive perspective on climate science, climate solutions, and climate politics. It is a project of the Center for American Progress Action Fund, a nonprofit, nonpartisan organization."

Now that's taken from a right-leaning site, but still, "consider which way the megaphone is pointing".



Right leaning or left leaning climate information is not the real determining factor to be used here. What is important is which sources actually use science to support their positions. Science is not determined by left leaning or right leaning thinking. The science is determined by testing what has been presented for peer review and the results will speak for themselves. Unlike every news agency that can write what it wishes, without any peer review from the other news agencies, science must be tested and pass the peer reviews of all of the science that would apply. .... Your point of it being from a conservative or progressive website does not alter what has been tested and the results of the tests. I have seen good climate reporting come from conservative sources and bad climate reporting come from progressive sources. The reporting and opinions may differ, but the science does not. The people that will always suffer the most from a lack of truth are the ones that cannot/will not see past their own ideologies.

The AGWT still stands as the best theory to explain our warming climate simply because it has withstood the tests and scrutiny of relentless peer reviews. No other competing theory presented even comes close to explaining the observations being being made. The AGWT does not violate any of The Laws of Physics, Chemistry or Thermodynamics. You may wish to argue the meaningless talking points you chose to do so with, but it does not alter the fact that the AGWT best explains our observations and no other competing theory has even come close to out performing the AGWT. None.
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473. yoboi
Quoting 467. Tazmanian:
Yawn. GW. Yuck I be on my new nextus 7 2nd gen Playing real raceing 3 and staying out of. GW. Wake me up when the next storm comes



A natural caused storm or an agw caused storm??????:)
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Global warming fan day! WHEN IS everything ending to end this time? Like a bunch of jehovah witnesses keep changing date for end of the world! Lol
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Quoting Gearsts:

Hi Gearsts! Can you post the overall SST Anomaly? TIA!
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Quoting 456. yoboi:



Do you really think there is a false divide????


Yes, the false divide is quite evident in polling. From October 2012, Pew Research. Link

I don't think there is an inherent behavior associated with political party or ideology that equates to the type of division we see along those lines with the accepted science.

I think we tend to go along with what are associated political parties are telling us, and that, at least in this example, is creating a divide that simply doesn't exist on other big scientific issues. (not to say that there aren't science issues we see a divide down party lines on, just that usually those issues tend to have a larger role at play like religious belief see: New Earth Creationists versus Geological Age of the Earth)
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In 2012 in Tornado Alley it was hard to even get a thunderstorm let alone any Tornadoes, but in Saskatchewan they had Record number of Nadoes as the Northern Jet Moved way up into Canada.

The video and Dr. M explain it well.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128256

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.