Hurricanes and Climate Change: Huge Dangers, Huge Unknowns

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:57 AM GMT on August 05, 2013

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Hurricane Sandy's enormous $65 billion price tag put that great storm in third place for the most expensive weather-related disaster in U.S. (and world) history, and six of the ten most expensive U.S. weather-related disasters since 1980 have been hurricanes. Thus, how the strongest hurricanes may be affected due a changing climate is a topic of critical concern. Since hurricanes are heat engines that extract heat energy from the oceans to power themselves, hurricane scientists are confident that the very strongest storms will get stronger by the end of the century, when Earth's land and ocean temperatures are expected to warm 2 - 3°C, to levels unmatched since the Eemian Era, 115,000 years ago. Computer modeling work consistently indicates that greenhouse warming will cause the globally averaged intensity of tropical cyclones to shift towards stronger storms, with intensity increases of 2–11% by 2100. But hurricanes are fussy creations, and are sensitive to wind shear and dry air. Although the strongest storms should get stronger when "perfect storm" conditions are present, these "perfect storm" conditions may become less frequent in the future, due to the presence of higher wind shear, altered atmospheric circulation patterns, or more dry air at mid levels of the atmosphere. Indeed, the climate models used to formulate the 2007 IPCC report suggested that we might see the strongest hurricanes getting stronger, but a decrease in the total number of hurricanes in the Atlantic (and worldwide) later this century. However, the latest set of models used to formulate the 2013 IPCC report left open the possibility that we might see in increase in the total number of hurricanes, and and increase in their intensity. Given the conflicting model results, we really don't know how global warming will affect the number of hurricanes and their intensity, but we run the risk of making one of humanity's greatest scourges worse.


Figure 1. The list of most expensive U.S. weather-related disasters since 1980 is dominated by hurricanes.

Climate models and hurricane frequency
The database we have on historical hurricanes does not extend far enough into the past and is not of high enough quality to make many judgements on how human-caused climate change may be affecting these great storms. A landmark 2010 review paper, "Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change", authored by ten top hurricane scientists concluded that the U.S. has not seen any long-term increase in landfalling tropical storms and hurricanes, and that "it remains uncertain whether past changes in tropical cyclone activity have exceeded the variability expected from natural causes" (tropical cyclone is the generic term which encompasses tropical depressions, tropical storms, hurricanes, and typhoons.) Based in part on modeling studies using climate models run for the 2007 IPCC report, the scientists concluded that "it is likely that global mean tropical cyclone frequency will either decrease or remain unchanged owing to greenhouse warming." For example, one of the modeling studies the review paper quoted, Knutson et al. (2008), "Simulated reduction in Atlantic hurricane frequency under twenty-first-century warming conditions", projected a decrease in Atlantic tropical storms by 27% and hurricanes by 18% by the end of the century. An important reason that their model predicted these decreases was due to a predicted increase in wind shear. As I explain in my wind shear tutorial, a large change of wind speed with height over a hurricane creates a shearing force that tends to tear the storm apart. The amount of wind shear is critical in determining whether a hurricane can form or survive.

But a July 2013 study by MIT's Dr. Kerry Emanuel, "Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century", challenged this result. Dr. Emanuel argued that tropical cyclones are likely to become both stronger and more frequent as the climate continues to warm. This increase is most likely to occur in Western North Pacific, with smaller increases in the Atlantic. Dr. Emanuel took output from six newer higher-resolution climate models used to formulate the 2013 IPCC report, and used the output to drive a high-resolution hurricane model. The simulations found that the global frequency of tropical cyclones would increase by 11% to 40% by 2100, with intensity increases as well. The combined effects produced a global increase in Category 3 and stronger hurricanes of 40%. The behavior of these strongest hurricanes is critical, since they do most of the damage we observe. Over the past century, Category 3 - 5 hurricanes accounted for 85% of US hurricane damage, despite representing only 24% of U.S. landfalling storms. Category 4 and 5 hurricanes made up only 6% of all U.S. landfalls, but accounted for 48% of all U.S. damage (if normalized to account for increases in U.S. population and wealth, see Pielke et al., 2008.)


Figure 2. Projected changes in tropical cyclone track density during the 2006-2100 period compared to the 1950-2005 period, using output from six climate models included in the 2013 IPCC report. The global frequency of tropical cyclones is predicted to increase by 11% to 40%, with the largest changes occurring in the Northwest Pacific off the coast of Japan. Smaller increases are predicted for the Atlantic and near Australia. Image credit: Kerry Emanuel, "Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century", Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, July 8, 2013, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1301293110.

However, a study by Knutson et al. (2013), using the same latest-generation climate models as used by Emanuel (2013), but using the output from the models to drive a different high-resolution hurricane model, found a 20% decrease in Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes by 2100. Two other 2013 studies by Villarini et al. and Camargo, also using output from the 2013 IPCC models, found essentially no change in Atlantic tropical cyclones. The reason for the differences, lies, in part, with how much global warming is assumed in the studies. Dr. Emanuel's study, which found an increase in tropical cyclone activity, assumed a worst-case warming situation (RCP 8.5), following the "business as usual" emissions path humanity is currently on. The Knutson et al. study, which found a decrease of 20% in Atlantic tropical cyclones, used a scenario (RCP 4.5) where it was assumed humans will wise up and cause about half of the worst-case greenhouse warming. The study found found "marginally significant" increases in Atlantic Category 4 and 5 hurricanes of 39% - 45% by 2100. These dramatically different results give credence to Dr. Emanuel statement at the end of his paper, "the response of tropical cyclones to projected climate change will remain uncertain for some time to come." The 2013 IPCC report also emphasized the high amount of uncertainty in how climate change might affect hurricanes, stating that there was "low confidence" that we have observed any increases in intense tropical cyclones due to human causes. However, since the 1970s, it is virtually certain (99 - 100% chance) that the frequency and intensity of hurricanes and tropical storms in the North Atlantic has increased, and there is medium confidence that a reduction in small air pollution particles (aerosols) over the North Atlantic caused part of this effect. The report's forecast for the future stated that it is "more likely than not" (50 - 100% chance) that human-caused climate change will cause a substantial increase in intense tropical cyclones in some ocean basins by 2100, with the Western North Pacific and Atlantic being at particular risk. Also, there will likely (66 - 100% chance) be an increase in both global mean tropical cyclone maximum wind speed and rain rates by 2100, and more likely than not (50 - 100% chance) that the increase in the most intense tropical cyclones will be larger than 10% in some basins.


Figure 3. Expected change in Atlantic Category 4 and 5 hurricanes per decade expected by the year 2100, according to Knutson et al. (2013), "Dynamical Downscaling Projections of 21st Century Atlantic Hurricane Activity: CMIP3 and CMIP5 Model-based Scenarios." This research used the latest generation of climate models from the 2013 IPCC report, and found "marginally significant" increases in Atlantic Category 4 and 5 hurricanes of 39% - 45% by 2100.

Commentary
Hurricane damages are currently doubling every ten years without the effect of climate change, according to Pielke et al., 2008. This is primarily due to the increasing population along the coast and increased wealth of the population. The authors theorize that the Great Miami Hurricane of 1926, a Category 4 monster that made a direct hit on Miami Beach, would have caused about $150 billion in damage had it hit in 2005. Thus, by 2015, the same hurricane would do $300 billion in damage, and $600 billion by 2025. This is without considering the impact that accelerating sea level rise will have on storm surge damages. Global sea level rise over the past decade has been about double what it was in the 20th century, and the rate of sea level rise is expected to increase further in the coming decades. Storm surge does the majority of damage in major hurricanes, and storm surges riding on top of higher sea levels are going to do a lot more damage in the coming decades. If we toss in the (controversial) increases in Category 3 and stronger storms like Dr. Emanuel suggests may occur, the hurricane damage math gets very impressive. We can also add onto that the relatively non-controversial increase in tropical cyclone rainfall of 20% expected by 2100, which will sharply increase damages due to fresh water river flooding. It is controversial whether or not we are already be seeing an increase in heavy precipitation events associated with tropical cyclones in the U.S., though. The total number of daily rainfall events exceeding 2" associated with tropical cyclones in the Southeast U.S. on a century time scale has not changed significantly, according to Groisman et al., 2004. But a 2010 study by Kunkel et al., "Recent increases in U.S. heavy precipitation associated with tropical cyclones", found that the number of Southeast U.S. tropical cyclone heavy precipitation events, defined as 1-in-5-year events, more than doubled between 1994 - 2008, compared to the long-term average from 1895 - 2008.


Figure 4. Time series of the 15-year running average (plotted at the end point of the 15-yr blocks) of a Tropical Cyclone Heavy Precipitation Index (red) and 15-year running average of U.S. landfalling hurricanes (blue). Note that there has been no long-term increase in U.S. landfalling hurricanes, but there has been a sharp increase in extreme rainfall events associated with landfalling tropical cyclones--the kind of rainfall events most likely to cause damaging flooding. Image credit: Kunkel et al. (2010), "Recent increases in U.S. heavy precipitation associated with tropical cyclones", Geophysical Research Letters.

It is essential that we limit coastal development in vulnerable coastal areas, particularly along barrier islands, to reduce some of the astronomical price tags hurricanes are going to be causing in the future. Adoption and enforcement of strict building standards is also a must, as well as more reforms to the government's National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), which subsidizes development in high-risk coastal regions that private insurers won't touch. NFIP is now $25 - 30 billion in the red, thanks to Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Sandy. Reform of NFIP is already underway. In 2012, before Sandy hit, Congress passed the Biggert-Waters Flood Insurance Reform Act, which requires people with NFIP policies to pay large premium increases of about 25% per year over the next five years. Naturally, this move has caused major controversy.

References
Camargo, S., (2013), "Global and regional aspects of tropical cyclone activity in the CMIP5 models," J. Climate.

Emanuel, K.A., 2013, "Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century", PNAS, July 8, 2013, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1301293110

Groisman, Pavel Ya, et al., "Contemporary changes of the hydrological cycle over the contiguous United States: Trends derived from in situ observations," Journal of Hydrometeorology 5.1 (2004): 64-85.

Knutson et al., 2010, "Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change", Nature Geoscience 3, 157 - 163, Published online: 21 February 2010 | doi:10.1038/ngeo779

Knutson et al., 2013, Dynamical Downscaling Projections of 21st Century Atlantic Hurricane Activity: CMIP3 and CMIP5 Model-based Scenarios, Journal of Climate 2013 ; e-View
doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00539.1

Pielke, R.A, et al., 2008, "Normalized Hurricane Damage in the United States: 1900 - 2005," Natural Hazards Review, DOI:10.1061/ASCE1527-6988(2008)9:1(29)

Villarini, G, and G.A. Vecchi, 2012, "Twenty-first-century projections of North Atlantic tropical storms from CMIP5 models," Nature Clim. Change 2:604–607.

Related posts
Global warming and the frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes: model results, my 2010 blog post.

Climate Central's analysis of the new 2013 Kerry Emanuel paper.

Goodbye, Miami: Jeff Goodell's sobering 2013 article in Rolling Stone on the challenges Miami faces due to sea level rise and hurricanes.


What the official climate assessments say about climate change and hurricanes
The 2013 IPCC report gives “low confidence”--a 20% chance--that we have observed a human-caused increase in intense hurricanes in some parts of the world. This is a reduction in odds from the 2007 report, which said that it was more likely than not (greater than 50% chance.) The IPCC likely took note of a landmark 2010 review paper, "Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change", authored by ten top hurricane scientists, which concluded that the U.S. had not seen any long-term increase in landfalling tropical storms and hurricanes, and that "it remains uncertain whether past changes in tropical cyclone activity have exceeded the variability expected from natural causes." The 2013 IPCC report predicts that there is a greater than 50% chance (more likely than not) that we will see a human-caused increase in intense hurricanes by 2100 in some regions; this is also a reduction from the 2007 report, which said this would be likely (66% chance or higher.)

The May 2014 United States National Climate Assessment found that “The intensity, frequency, and duration of North Atlantic hurricanes, as well as the frequency of the strongest (Category 4 and 5) hurricanes, have all increased since the early 1980s. The relative contributions of human and natural causes to these increases are still uncertain. Hurricane-associated storm intensity and rainfall rates are projected to increase as the climate continues to warm.”

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 460. Patrap:
Climate Change is affecting the northern Jet Stream, we get a Highly amplified Jet with Big Looping Ridges and Troughs, and that is explained here by Dr. Masters and others.


The cool we see in Summer, as well as the lack of Tornadoes in the US in 2012, all points to Climate change.

Never be afraid to learn.

It keeps one in the curve.









This argument, taken to it's logical conclusion, implies every weather event can be attributed to AGW. Unseasonable cold, agw. Unseasonable warmth, agw. Lots of snow, agw. No snow, agw. Lots of canes and tornadoes, agw. Reduced canes and tornadoes, agw. Drought agw. Floods agw. I prefer the term Global Warming over the term climate change because when this whole debate started, that is what the debate was about.
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Save the Earth, its the only planet with chocolate :)
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Quoting 520. CosmicEvents:
Thanks.
If I'm reading it right the 370,000 figure is way more misleading or shrillish than I suspected. They don't even make any pretext to count the incremental deaths due to climate change. They just say that all 370,000 deaths(everyone in the world who died) due to floods, cyclones, droughts, etc. were deaths caused by climate change. hmmmmm
The thing is, neither the UN article nor the OP here earlier today stated that the 370,000 deaths were either "caused by" or "due to" climate change. The UN article merely states that "...more than 370,000 people died as a result" of "...extreme Floods, droughts and tropical cyclones" that were "...experienced across the world throughout the decade". It then goes on to state, quite correctly, that those extreme events took place in an atmosphere growing increasingly warm due to rapidly rising concentrations of greenhouse gases.They said nothing misleading nor shrill; just basic facts. Some may not like those facts or what they imply. But they are what they are...
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Quoting 520. CosmicEvents:
Thanks.
If I'm reading it right the 370,000 figure is way more misleading or shrillish than I suspected. They don't even make any pretext to count the incremental deaths due to climate change. They just say that all 370,000 deaths(everyone in the world who died) due to floods, cyclones, droughts, etc. were deaths caused by climate change. hmmmmm


Yeah, that's how its done. When some bozo walks out of his house after a cyclone and steps on a downed powerline, chalk it up to climate change, not human stupidity.
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Quoting 556. sebastianflorida:
They have done this in hurricanes too. Next thing you know snow starts falling in a hurricane.
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Quoting 542. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
that's what I was thinking a t storm bomb

is it tornado warned if not will be


On satellite it looks like the same effect that led to the F5 Jarrell Tornado in 1997. That explosive type signature. Hopefully the shear is low today.

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Study finds what you already feel: Chicago's getting hotter
City heat waves are longer, warmer and more frequent, according to 6-decade analysis



July 25, 2012|By Ryan Haggerty, Chicago Tribune reporter

As Chicago residents sweat through yet another steamy week, a study to be released Wednesday reports that potentially lethal heat waves have become hotter and more common in the city over the past six decades.

Chicago now averages one more heat wave per summerthan it did in the late 1940s, and the trend shows no sign of stopping, according to the study from the Union of Concerned Scientists, a nonprofit research group.


Day-to-day relief from scorching temperatures has become more scarce, too: The city has lost an average of more than seven cool, dry days per summer over the same span, and overnight temperatures during some of the hottest days have inched higher, the study shows.

"What we found is that what people are feeling every day throughout hot summers like this is not a figment of their imagination," said Steve Frenkel, director of the nonprofit's Midwest office. "Summers are getting hotter in Chicago."

The study does not address the trend's causes, but the use of fossil fuelsas a primary energy source is likely a primary factor, Frenkel said.

"We know that atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas, have been rising as we burn more and more fossil fuels, and that climate change is occurring," he said. "And while we don't draw a causal link in this report between man-made climate change and hotter summers in Chicago, we know that both of these things are occurring."

The study used weather datagathered in Chicago in June, July and August from 1948 through 2011 to analyze air masses that settled over the city.

Hot, humid air masses from the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea and hot, dry air masses from the American Southwest are most likely to cause heat-related health problems and now blanket the city an average of 10 days per summer, researchers found. About 60 years ago, the city sweltered under those air masses an average of seven days per summer, according to the study.

Those air masses also are lingering over the city for longer periods, the study shows. Chicago now averages about three heat waves per summer, up from two in the late 1940s.

Summers with an unusually high number of heat waves also are becoming more common, according to the study. From 1948 to 1980, the city had only two summers with six or more heat waves. But from 1980 through 2011, Chicago had six summers with six or more heat waves, the study found.

Although there is no standard definition for heat waves, researchers who worked on the study classified them as stretches of three or more days under air masses that are either hot and humid or hot and dry.

The increasing heat and humidity is compounded by the fact that overnight temperatures increased on nights when the city was covered by the two most dangerous air masses, making it harder for people to cool off and recharge for the next day, according to the study.


The effects of heat and humidity are cumulative, so long stretches of hot days and nights take a toll, said Larry Kalkstein, a research professor of climatology at the University of Miamiand one of the study's lead authors.

"Normally people can deal with one very hot day, and even a hot overnight, and maybe even two," Kalkstein said. "But as you get into three or more hot consecutive days with these bad air masses ... that's when the problems start occurring."

The study also analyzed weather data from Minneapolis, Detroit, St. Louis and Cincinnati and found similar patterns in each city, although trends were stronger in St. Louis and Detroit than Chicago.

Smaller nearby cities, such as Peoria, also experienced similar trends, showing that the urban heat island effect — in which large cities are usually hotter than surrounding rural areas — did not have a significant effect on the study's findings, Kalkstein said.

rhaggerty@tribune.com

Twitter @RyanTHaggerty

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129903
Okay lol maybe I'm stupid for asking as it has probably been answered, but 10,000 people were killed from a drought in 1980? Really??
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

Hot like fire

It was very hot earlier today, but some storm clouds are building ATM. I'm not sure if we'll be getting any rain though.
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Quoting 553. wunderkidcayman:


You mean this one


Link


no, but that was a cool event. I meant the one around Tennessee the other day.
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Seems ridiculous!
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This place is getting pretty quiet since no storms :(.
Member Since: July 31, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 925
Quoting 520. CosmicEvents:
Thanks.
If I'm reading it right the 370,000 figure is way more misleading or shrillish than I suspected. They don't even make any pretext to count the incremental deaths due to climate change. They just say that all 370,000 deaths(everyone in the world who died) due to floods, cyclones, droughts, etc. were deaths caused by climate change. hmmmmm


That was my impression as well when I skimmed the article. I did not read the original report. Keep in mind, don't shoot the messenger-I was just providing a source for the figure :)

But unfortunately now I'm having problems with the link, so I can't read further. (Don't know if it's on my end or not, as I've been having problems since going to IE10 w/ being periodically unable to connect to sites, or having the links shut down.)

Overall, I think your point about the incremental increase in deaths is likely a good one.
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Are They still working on this idea?
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Quoting 546. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
we are an adaptable breed we will adapt we have no choice


Yes, we have no choice. We're no different than a tree root running into a rock...go under, over or around..or just push through. Extinction is always around the corner however.
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Quoting 534. RitaEvac:
As was stated earlier, AGW is not only caused by pollution, but by steroid induced athletic multi millionaire ball players. Wow, we're finding out all kinds of great stuff in the world.
Quoting 528. yoboi:


A-rod did blame it on agw.......
LOL I guess the Heat got to his head. Poor chap.
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Quoting 549. MisterPerfect:
One question though...what happened to the landocane?


You mean this one


Link
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ScienceCasts: The Sun's Magnetic Field is About to Flip

Published on Aug 5, 2013
Visit http://science.nasa.gov/ for breaking science news.

Something big is happening on the sun. The sun's global magnetic field is about to flip, a sign that Solar Max has arrived.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129903
And humid and clear
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One question though...what happened to the landocane?
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Okay lol maybe I'm stupid for asking as it has probably been answered, but 10,000 people were killed from a drought in 1980? Really??

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Quoting 543. nigel20:

Hi sp! How was the weather in Grand Cayman today?

Hot like fire
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Quoting 540. MisterPerfect:


I enjoyed the post. Puts things in perspective. One thing is for sure, the warming planet sure doesn't seem to hinder the human population increase.
we are an adaptable breed we will adapt we have no choice
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
Quoting 535. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




Severe T Storm warning issued for 2 counties for that blow up.
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Quoting 536. Sfloridacat5:


You mean you don't want to discuss global warming and climate change? How could that be possible?




;) you know me so well
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Quoting stormpetrol:






11.5N/52W might surprise us!

Hi sp! How was the weather in Grand Cayman today?
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Quoting 537. DavidHOUTX:
looks like a bomb went off
that's what I was thinking a t storm bomb

is it tornado warned if not will be
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
Quoting 537. DavidHOUTX:
looks like a bomb went off

I second that.
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Quoting 519. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
just somem to keep us on our toes is all


I enjoyed the post. Puts things in perspective. One thing is for sure, the warming planet sure doesn't seem to hinder the human population increase.
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Quoting 535. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



The storm blew up really quickly.
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my concern over the next several days will be an area of disturbed weather that will be near 12n and 50w. I see whatever develops will slide quite a bit west before making a gradual wnw turn; just the way I see things shaping up by late in the week or weekend.
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looks like a bomb went off
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Quoting 517. MisterPerfect:
we all know Doc M puts a climate change topic up when things are boring in the trops...its like a rain delay in baseball.



You mean you don't want to discuss global warming and climate change? How could that be possible?


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Quoting 527. 62901IL:

Whoa! Impressive outflow from that thunderstorm over Kansas.


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
As was stated earlier, AGW is not only caused by pollution, but by steroid induced athletic multi millionaire ball players. Wow, we're finding out all kinds of great stuff in the world.
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Cantore of TWC is in NOLA with da yats for hurricane week. Storms coming thru Chad and Niger of Africa fame may be worth watching.
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532. yoboi
Quoting 520. CosmicEvents:
Thanks.
If I'm reading it right the 370,000 figure is way more misleading or shrillish than I suspected. They don't even make any pretext to count the incremental deaths due to climate change. They just say that all 370,000 deaths(everyone in the world who died) due to floods, cyclones, droughts, etc. were deaths caused by climate change. hmmmmm



I am confused myself.....
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HENRIETTE almost a hurricane.


TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082013
200 PM PDT MON AUG 05 2013

THE SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE...
WITH RECENT HINTS OF AN EYE. AN EARLIER 1414 UTC SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALED A MID-LEVEL EYE WITH A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
RING. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KT. LOW SHEAR AND WARM WATERS AHEAD OF
HENRIETTE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONTINUED
INTENSIFICATION...AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
HURRICANE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. IN 24 TO 36 HOURS...HENRIETTE
WILL BE CROSSING A TONGUE OF COOLER SSTS THAT WILL LIKELY SLOW OR
HALT THE STRENGTHENING. LATER IN THE PERIOD... COOLER WATERS AND A
MORE STABLE AIR MASS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING. IF
HENRIETTE MOVES NORTH OF THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IT WOULD
ENCOUNTER MUCH COOLER SSTS AND LIKELY WEAKEN FASTER THAN INDICATED
BELOW.

HENRIETTE HAS MADE ITS MUCH ANTICIPATED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TURN. IT
HAS ALSO GAINED SOME FORWARD SPEED WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 290/8
KT. HENRIETTE SHOULD MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON
THIS CYCLE...AND THE NHC TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED NORTHWARD ONCE
AGAIN TO BE NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. AFTER 48
HOURS...THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT IS PRODUCING THE WEAKNESS IN
THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD
ONCE AGAIN. THIS SHOULD CAUSE HENRIETTE TO TURN BACK TOWARD THE
WEST DURING THE 3- TO 5-DAY TIME PERIOD. AS HENRIETTE WEAKENS AND
BECOMES A SHALLOW CYCLONE...IT IS LIKELY TO MOVE MORE QUICKLY
WESTWARD IN THE BRISK LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 12.8N 129.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 13.6N 130.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 14.8N 131.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 15.8N 133.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 16.7N 134.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 17.5N 138.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 09/1800Z 17.3N 142.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 10/1800Z 17.0N 147.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14913
GIL is still alive.


TROPICAL DEPRESSION GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072013
200 PM PDT MON AUG 05 2013

A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTING FOR THE PAST 10
HOURS OR SO NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER OF GIL. THE INITIAL
WIND SPEED IS NUDGED UPWARD TO 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY ASSUMING
THAT THE WINDS ARE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN EARLIER DUE TO THE
PERSISTENT CONVECTION. THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS GIL CHANGING
LITTLE IN STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE IT REMAINS OVER
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 27C...AND WITHIN MODERATE
SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR. GIL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN
ABOUT 36 HOURS...THE SAME AS SHOWN IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE COMPACT TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINS ON TRACK...AND IS MOVING
SOUTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 8 KT. A TURN TO THE WEST IS FORECAST TO
OCCUR BY LATE TUESDAY WHEN THE CYCLONE BECOMES EMBEDDED IN LOW TO
MID-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...GIL WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE 06/09Z ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 13.2N 139.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 12.9N 140.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 12.6N 141.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 12.6N 143.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 07/1800Z 12.8N 144.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 08/1800Z 13.5N 147.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 09/1800Z 14.0N 151.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 10/1800Z 14.0N 155.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14913






11.5N/52W might surprise us!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
528. yoboi
Quoting 521. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I guess Dr. M's blog is the new ESPN? :-)


A-rod did blame it on agw.......
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 524. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Boom


Whoa! Impressive outflow from that thunderstorm over Kansas.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
As far as I'm concerned almost all of us have posted an off-topic comment today. Might as well ban everyone for a day and comeback tomorrow when we have all cooled down. A nice dip in the pool would be delightful. :D
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 518. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Pat and Natalie wikipedia 1880 Atlantic Hurricane Season then follow each season up until 1930 and count how many tropical storms and hurricanes hit the West Coast of FL. Pay particular attention to where some originate from, in fact one started in the western gulf and made a hard right turn and hit somewhere up in the big bend area. One year had 3 storms make landfall on the west coast of FL. Now count how many tropical storms and hurricanes hit the West Coast of FL. from 1960 to 2010. I'm willing to bet the former had more hits than the latter. Since the definition of climate is the composite or generally prevailing weather conditions of a region, as temperature, air pressure, humidity, precipitation, sunshine, cloudiness, and winds, throughout the year, averaged over a series of years. Climate change is changes in those prevailing weather conditions which also includes steering of tropical systems.



That's what Science is, discovering the new, the embedded unknown within the mean...


I commend anyone who actively searches the data,esp the indicators as well.

Plentey of data and studies,pdf's, archived and published to read and learn from.

Cable TV nor crank science sites do no one any good as to the search for knowledge as it stands today on Climate Change.

Our situ is a common denominator in the escalating problem of accelerated Man induced Climate Change.

From the Maldives to Miami all share the same dilemma.





Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129903
Boom

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 441. CybrTeddy:
.. and this is why I stay out of AGW discussions.


I wanted to see what all the buzz was about re: GW so I moved to Texas. Here we call GW, Monday. :)

Heat Advisory


Statement as of 1:01 PM CDT on August 05, 2013



... Heat advisory in effect until 7 PM CDT Thursday...

The National Weather Service in Austin/San Antonio has issued a
heat advisory... which is in effect until 7 PM CDT Thursday.

* Temperature... between 100 and 105 degrees.

* Heat indicies... between 105 and 110 degrees.

* Impacts... heat exhaustion... heat stroke... elderly... pets.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When
possible... reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or
evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat
stroke. Wear light weight and loose fitting clothing when
possible and drink plenty of water. To reduce risk during outdoor
work the occupational safety and health administration recommends
scheduling frequent rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned
environments. Anyone overcome by heat should be moved to a cool
and shaded location. Heat stroke is an emergency... call 911.



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 501. hurricanes2018:
A-Rod likely to appeal 211-game ban; 12 agree to 50 games

MLB suspended Alex Rodriguez through the 2014 season for his Biogenesis involvement, effective Thursday. Twelve others, including Nelson Cruz, Jhonny Peralta and Everth Cabrera, agreed to 50-game bans.
I guess Dr. M's blog is the new ESPN? :-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 462. LAbonbon:


I think the 370,000 figure can be found here:

Link

The link is to a news article on the UN's News Centre site. The article references and links to the originating report.
Thanks.
If I'm reading it right the 370,000 figure is way more misleading or shrillish than I suspected. They don't even make any pretext to count the incremental deaths due to climate change. They just say that all 370,000 deaths(everyone in the world who died) due to floods, cyclones, droughts, etc. were deaths caused by climate change. hmmmmm
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Quoting 517. MisterPerfect:
we all know Doc M puts a climate change topic up when things are boring in the trops...its like a rain delay in baseball.

just somem to keep us on our toes is all
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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