Hurricanes and Climate Change: Huge Dangers, Huge Unknowns

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:57 AM GMT on August 05, 2013

Share this Blog
74
+

Hurricane Sandy's enormous $65 billion price tag put that great storm in third place for the most expensive weather-related disaster in U.S. (and world) history, and six of the ten most expensive U.S. weather-related disasters since 1980 have been hurricanes. Thus, how the strongest hurricanes may be affected due a changing climate is a topic of critical concern. Since hurricanes are heat engines that extract heat energy from the oceans to power themselves, hurricane scientists are confident that the very strongest storms will get stronger by the end of the century, when Earth's land and ocean temperatures are expected to warm 2 - 3°C, to levels unmatched since the Eemian Era, 115,000 years ago. Computer modeling work consistently indicates that greenhouse warming will cause the globally averaged intensity of tropical cyclones to shift towards stronger storms, with intensity increases of 2–11% by 2100. But hurricanes are fussy creations, and are sensitive to wind shear and dry air. Although the strongest storms should get stronger when "perfect storm" conditions are present, these "perfect storm" conditions may become less frequent in the future, due to the presence of higher wind shear, altered atmospheric circulation patterns, or more dry air at mid levels of the atmosphere. Indeed, the climate models used to formulate the 2007 IPCC report suggested that we might see the strongest hurricanes getting stronger, but a decrease in the total number of hurricanes in the Atlantic (and worldwide) later this century. However, the latest set of models used to formulate the 2013 IPCC report left open the possibility that we might see in increase in the total number of hurricanes, and and increase in their intensity. Given the conflicting model results, we really don't know how global warming will affect the number of hurricanes and their intensity, but we run the risk of making one of humanity's greatest scourges worse.


Figure 1. The list of most expensive U.S. weather-related disasters since 1980 is dominated by hurricanes.

Climate models and hurricane frequency
The database we have on historical hurricanes does not extend far enough into the past and is not of high enough quality to make many judgements on how human-caused climate change may be affecting these great storms. A landmark 2010 review paper, "Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change", authored by ten top hurricane scientists concluded that the U.S. has not seen any long-term increase in landfalling tropical storms and hurricanes, and that "it remains uncertain whether past changes in tropical cyclone activity have exceeded the variability expected from natural causes" (tropical cyclone is the generic term which encompasses tropical depressions, tropical storms, hurricanes, and typhoons.) Based in part on modeling studies using climate models run for the 2007 IPCC report, the scientists concluded that "it is likely that global mean tropical cyclone frequency will either decrease or remain unchanged owing to greenhouse warming." For example, one of the modeling studies the review paper quoted, Knutson et al. (2008), "Simulated reduction in Atlantic hurricane frequency under twenty-first-century warming conditions", projected a decrease in Atlantic tropical storms by 27% and hurricanes by 18% by the end of the century. An important reason that their model predicted these decreases was due to a predicted increase in wind shear. As I explain in my wind shear tutorial, a large change of wind speed with height over a hurricane creates a shearing force that tends to tear the storm apart. The amount of wind shear is critical in determining whether a hurricane can form or survive.

But a July 2013 study by MIT's Dr. Kerry Emanuel, "Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century", challenged this result. Dr. Emanuel argued that tropical cyclones are likely to become both stronger and more frequent as the climate continues to warm. This increase is most likely to occur in Western North Pacific, with smaller increases in the Atlantic. Dr. Emanuel took output from six newer higher-resolution climate models used to formulate the 2013 IPCC report, and used the output to drive a high-resolution hurricane model. The simulations found that the global frequency of tropical cyclones would increase by 11% to 40% by 2100, with intensity increases as well. The combined effects produced a global increase in Category 3 and stronger hurricanes of 40%. The behavior of these strongest hurricanes is critical, since they do most of the damage we observe. Over the past century, Category 3 - 5 hurricanes accounted for 85% of US hurricane damage, despite representing only 24% of U.S. landfalling storms. Category 4 and 5 hurricanes made up only 6% of all U.S. landfalls, but accounted for 48% of all U.S. damage (if normalized to account for increases in U.S. population and wealth, see Pielke et al., 2008.)


Figure 2. Projected changes in tropical cyclone track density during the 2006-2100 period compared to the 1950-2005 period, using output from six climate models included in the 2013 IPCC report. The global frequency of tropical cyclones is predicted to increase by 11% to 40%, with the largest changes occurring in the Northwest Pacific off the coast of Japan. Smaller increases are predicted for the Atlantic and near Australia. Image credit: Kerry Emanuel, "Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century", Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, July 8, 2013, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1301293110.

However, a study by Knutson et al. (2013), using the same latest-generation climate models as used by Emanuel (2013), but using the output from the models to drive a different high-resolution hurricane model, found a 20% decrease in Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes by 2100. Two other 2013 studies by Villarini et al. and Camargo, also using output from the 2013 IPCC models, found essentially no change in Atlantic tropical cyclones. The reason for the differences, lies, in part, with how much global warming is assumed in the studies. Dr. Emanuel's study, which found an increase in tropical cyclone activity, assumed a worst-case warming situation (RCP 8.5), following the "business as usual" emissions path humanity is currently on. The Knutson et al. study, which found a decrease of 20% in Atlantic tropical cyclones, used a scenario (RCP 4.5) where it was assumed humans will wise up and cause about half of the worst-case greenhouse warming. The study found found "marginally significant" increases in Atlantic Category 4 and 5 hurricanes of 39% - 45% by 2100. These dramatically different results give credence to Dr. Emanuel statement at the end of his paper, "the response of tropical cyclones to projected climate change will remain uncertain for some time to come." The 2013 IPCC report also emphasized the high amount of uncertainty in how climate change might affect hurricanes, stating that there was "low confidence" that we have observed any increases in intense tropical cyclones due to human causes. However, since the 1970s, it is virtually certain (99 - 100% chance) that the frequency and intensity of hurricanes and tropical storms in the North Atlantic has increased, and there is medium confidence that a reduction in small air pollution particles (aerosols) over the North Atlantic caused part of this effect. The report's forecast for the future stated that it is "more likely than not" (50 - 100% chance) that human-caused climate change will cause a substantial increase in intense tropical cyclones in some ocean basins by 2100, with the Western North Pacific and Atlantic being at particular risk. Also, there will likely (66 - 100% chance) be an increase in both global mean tropical cyclone maximum wind speed and rain rates by 2100, and more likely than not (50 - 100% chance) that the increase in the most intense tropical cyclones will be larger than 10% in some basins.


Figure 3. Expected change in Atlantic Category 4 and 5 hurricanes per decade expected by the year 2100, according to Knutson et al. (2013), "Dynamical Downscaling Projections of 21st Century Atlantic Hurricane Activity: CMIP3 and CMIP5 Model-based Scenarios." This research used the latest generation of climate models from the 2013 IPCC report, and found "marginally significant" increases in Atlantic Category 4 and 5 hurricanes of 39% - 45% by 2100.

Commentary
Hurricane damages are currently doubling every ten years without the effect of climate change, according to Pielke et al., 2008. This is primarily due to the increasing population along the coast and increased wealth of the population. The authors theorize that the Great Miami Hurricane of 1926, a Category 4 monster that made a direct hit on Miami Beach, would have caused about $150 billion in damage had it hit in 2005. Thus, by 2015, the same hurricane would do $300 billion in damage, and $600 billion by 2025. This is without considering the impact that accelerating sea level rise will have on storm surge damages. Global sea level rise over the past decade has been about double what it was in the 20th century, and the rate of sea level rise is expected to increase further in the coming decades. Storm surge does the majority of damage in major hurricanes, and storm surges riding on top of higher sea levels are going to do a lot more damage in the coming decades. If we toss in the (controversial) increases in Category 3 and stronger storms like Dr. Emanuel suggests may occur, the hurricane damage math gets very impressive. We can also add onto that the relatively non-controversial increase in tropical cyclone rainfall of 20% expected by 2100, which will sharply increase damages due to fresh water river flooding. It is controversial whether or not we are already be seeing an increase in heavy precipitation events associated with tropical cyclones in the U.S., though. The total number of daily rainfall events exceeding 2" associated with tropical cyclones in the Southeast U.S. on a century time scale has not changed significantly, according to Groisman et al., 2004. But a 2010 study by Kunkel et al., "Recent increases in U.S. heavy precipitation associated with tropical cyclones", found that the number of Southeast U.S. tropical cyclone heavy precipitation events, defined as 1-in-5-year events, more than doubled between 1994 - 2008, compared to the long-term average from 1895 - 2008.


Figure 4. Time series of the 15-year running average (plotted at the end point of the 15-yr blocks) of a Tropical Cyclone Heavy Precipitation Index (red) and 15-year running average of U.S. landfalling hurricanes (blue). Note that there has been no long-term increase in U.S. landfalling hurricanes, but there has been a sharp increase in extreme rainfall events associated with landfalling tropical cyclones--the kind of rainfall events most likely to cause damaging flooding. Image credit: Kunkel et al. (2010), "Recent increases in U.S. heavy precipitation associated with tropical cyclones", Geophysical Research Letters.

It is essential that we limit coastal development in vulnerable coastal areas, particularly along barrier islands, to reduce some of the astronomical price tags hurricanes are going to be causing in the future. Adoption and enforcement of strict building standards is also a must, as well as more reforms to the government's National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), which subsidizes development in high-risk coastal regions that private insurers won't touch. NFIP is now $25 - 30 billion in the red, thanks to Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Sandy. Reform of NFIP is already underway. In 2012, before Sandy hit, Congress passed the Biggert-Waters Flood Insurance Reform Act, which requires people with NFIP policies to pay large premium increases of about 25% per year over the next five years. Naturally, this move has caused major controversy.

References
Camargo, S., (2013), "Global and regional aspects of tropical cyclone activity in the CMIP5 models," J. Climate.

Emanuel, K.A., 2013, "Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century", PNAS, July 8, 2013, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1301293110

Groisman, Pavel Ya, et al., "Contemporary changes of the hydrological cycle over the contiguous United States: Trends derived from in situ observations," Journal of Hydrometeorology 5.1 (2004): 64-85.

Knutson et al., 2010, "Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change", Nature Geoscience 3, 157 - 163, Published online: 21 February 2010 | doi:10.1038/ngeo779

Knutson et al., 2013, Dynamical Downscaling Projections of 21st Century Atlantic Hurricane Activity: CMIP3 and CMIP5 Model-based Scenarios, Journal of Climate 2013 ; e-View
doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00539.1

Pielke, R.A, et al., 2008, "Normalized Hurricane Damage in the United States: 1900 - 2005," Natural Hazards Review, DOI:10.1061/ASCE1527-6988(2008)9:1(29)

Villarini, G, and G.A. Vecchi, 2012, "Twenty-first-century projections of North Atlantic tropical storms from CMIP5 models," Nature Clim. Change 2:604–607.

Related posts
Global warming and the frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes: model results, my 2010 blog post.

Climate Central's analysis of the new 2013 Kerry Emanuel paper.

Goodbye, Miami: Jeff Goodell's sobering 2013 article in Rolling Stone on the challenges Miami faces due to sea level rise and hurricanes.


What the official climate assessments say about climate change and hurricanes
The 2013 IPCC report gives “low confidence”--a 20% chance--that we have observed a human-caused increase in intense hurricanes in some parts of the world. This is a reduction in odds from the 2007 report, which said that it was more likely than not (greater than 50% chance.) The IPCC likely took note of a landmark 2010 review paper, "Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change", authored by ten top hurricane scientists, which concluded that the U.S. had not seen any long-term increase in landfalling tropical storms and hurricanes, and that "it remains uncertain whether past changes in tropical cyclone activity have exceeded the variability expected from natural causes." The 2013 IPCC report predicts that there is a greater than 50% chance (more likely than not) that we will see a human-caused increase in intense hurricanes by 2100 in some regions; this is also a reduction from the 2007 report, which said this would be likely (66% chance or higher.)

The May 2014 United States National Climate Assessment found that “The intensity, frequency, and duration of North Atlantic hurricanes, as well as the frequency of the strongest (Category 4 and 5) hurricanes, have all increased since the early 1980s. The relative contributions of human and natural causes to these increases are still uncertain. Hurricane-associated storm intensity and rainfall rates are projected to increase as the climate continues to warm.”

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 619 - 569

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52Blog Index

Quoting 582. stormpetrol:


Hot as henges of hell as the old folks would say, sorry for anyone without A/C or a good fan. Really stifling hot!

Well I did say that

Quoting 590. nigel20:

Yeah, 35C was recorded in Kingston on Saturday...It felt like 42C. Sunday was extremely hot as well. I'm really hoping for some rain soon.

Well they don't call it SUNday for no good reason

Quoting 593. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Between 50-55w and 10-15N cyclonic turning can be seen with that disturbance. I am trying to figure out if that is our catalyst for development in the Western Caribbean and GOM?



FIM-8 really likes it:




We really need to watch out for it this could be one of those sneeky ones that no one expects

Quoting 597. nigel20:

Hi tornadodude! I think that about 70 000 people were killed in the 2003 European heatwave if I'm not mistaken.


Euro heatwave are not that hot maybe between 85 F and 100 F euros can't Handle the heat

I should not complain I'm part Scottish and I hate h heat
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 612. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I find this models consistency rather disturbing. Either it will come to fruition or be a bust. Waiting to see if the GFS, ECMWF, or CMC latch onto it.



How low are the pressures are the models showing by that time?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 578. WPBHurricane05:
I wonder how many SUVs caused this to melt?



Classic, in the sense it has nothing to do with what is occurring now. Do you think the scientists somehow just ignored natural cycles and trends from the past? Or that they haven't taken natural forcings into account? This is little more than a poor argument and distraction that even a cursory look into climate change and global warming can refute. I suggest starting here. Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 612. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I find this models consistency rather disturbing. Either it will come to fruition or be a bust. Waiting to see if the GFS, ECMWF, or CMC latch onto it.



Wasnt it said on here last year or the year before that the FIM was supposed to replace the GFS? Why was it canned?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
615. yoboi
Quoting 591. CosmicEvents:
phooey. I'm not debating AGW with you....my point in talking about this 370,000 figure is that these types of figures, and what they imply, is doing more harm than good for the cause. I don't like playing fast and loose with the numbers. In this case, as a bare bare bare minimum, when they note that the 370,000 is 20% higher than 10 years ago they should note that world population has increased roughly 15%. So, you're really talking about 18,500 total deaths. How many of the 18,500 to attribute incrementally to climate change? Who knows? But the headline implies 370,000 died due to climate change induced extreme weather.


You are correct....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 586. tornadodude:


If 10,000 people really died from a heatwave, that is unreal..


Wiki about European heat wave 2003 (and yes! it was very very bad:)

The 2003 European heat wave was the hottest summer on record in Europe since at least 1540.[1] France was hit especially hard. The heat wave led to health crises in several countries and combined with drought to create a crop shortfall in parts of Southern Europe. Peer reviewed analysis places the European death toll at 70,000.[
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 594. Patrap:
1972 - The heat waves of 1972 in New York and Northeastern United States were significant. Almost 900 people perished; the heat conditions lasted almost 16 days, aggravated by very high humidity levels.


They adjusted the mortality for the 1995 Chicago heat wave up as well. Something like 700-800 deaths in one week. From what I'm reading, it's hard to ascertain mortality from heat waves; it's done sometimes by comparing deaths before the heat wave to deaths during. I'm wondering if that's a factor is the difference between the 'more than 1250' and the 10,000 deaths cited in the 2004 report referenced in Dr. M's blog.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I find this models consistency rather disturbing. Either it will come to fruition or be a bust. Waiting to see if the GFS, ECMWF, or CMC latch onto it.

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8774
Quoting 598. barbamz:

Look here (the first part of the video is interesting. But mind, it's only a video, with no deeper proof):

Meteorologists create fake rain to help with heat wave
9:06 AM, Aug 2, 2013 with a raw video

CHINA (CNN) -- Meteorological staff in Hangzhou, the capital of east China's Zhejiang Province, created artificial precipitation on Tuesday, helping ease the continued heat wave that has seared the city since July.

Seven rocket projectiles were launched in Hangzhou's Yuhang District at 15:30 and 16:00 Tuesday afternoon, and around 10 minutes later, rain started to fall.

"The rockets were fired into the sky where they produce a condensation nucleus that generates rainfall when meeting water vapor," said Yang Zhijiang, deputy director of Hngzhou's Yuhang District Meteorological Office.

Currently artificial rainfall has been undertaken in six regions in Zhejing Province, with average temperature from July 1 to July 29 reaching 30.3 degrees Celsius, the highest in 60 years.
for every action comes an opposite and opposing action
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
Hot and sunny in St Augustine this afternoon but after reading the blog I made a quick run to Gander Mountain to pick up some of these.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 597. nigel20:

Hi tornadodude! I think that about 70 000 people were killed in the 2003 European heatwave if I'm not mistaken.


Hey Nigel, I googled "how many people died during the 2003 European heatwave" and I got many conflicting answers..which one is correct?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 605. yoboi:



A heat wave and drought is 2 different events....heat related death I would assume would be more than a drought....a drought is a lack of moisture in the ground.....that can happen with hot or cold weather.......



Yeah that's part of my confusion.. a heatwave can kill a lot of people, definitely, but I don't get how you track how many people died from a drought..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 604. mitchelace5:
My grandmother had a job in south Florida at Holy Cross hospital when Andrew struck. Thankfully she survived


That's the hospital I was born in. ;)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tornadodude:


Heat is brutal!

But, also, I believe much of the parts of Europe affected didn't have much AC? right?

Yeah, that's correct.
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 12 Comments: 8486
605. yoboi
Quoting 586. tornadodude:


If 10,000 people really died from a heatwave, that is unreal..



A heat wave and drought is 2 different events....heat related death I would assume would be more than a drought....a drought is a lack of moisture in the ground.....that can happen with hot or cold weather.......
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
My grandmother had a job in south Florida at Holy Cross hospital when Andrew struck. Thankfully she survived
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Summary[edit]



Expansion of the last 1000 years


Temperature variations during the preceding 12000 years.

This image is a comparison of 10 different published reconstructions of mean temperature changes during the last 2000 years. More recent reconstructions are plotted towards the front and in redder colors, older reconstructions appear towards the back and in bluer colors. An instrumental history of temperature is also shown in black. The medieval warm period and little ice age are labeled at roughly the times when they are historically believed to occur, though it is still disputed whether these were truly global or only regional events. The single, unsmoothed annual value for 2004 is also shown for comparison. (Image:Instrumental Temperature Record.png shows how 2004 relates to other recent years).

For the purposes of this comparison, the author is agnostic as to which, if any, of the reconstructions of global mean temperature is an accurate reflection of temperature fluctuations during the last 2000 years. However, since this plot is a fair representation of the range of reconstructions appearing in the published scientific literature, it is likely that such reconstructions, accurate or not, will play a significant role in the ongoing discussions of global climate change and global warming.

For each reconstruction, the raw data has been decadally smoothed with a σ = 5 yr Gaussian weighted moving average. Also, each reconstruction was adjusted so that its mean matched the mean of the instrumental record during the period of overlap. The variance (i.e. the scale of fluctuations) was not adjusted (except in one case noted below).

Except as noted below, all original data for this comparison comes from [1] and links therein. It should also be noted that scientific challenges to methodology and data used in several of the references have been substantiated and reconstructions of past climate report substantial error bars, which are not represented on this figure.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
Hi er'body....been off due to connection problems. Hot with a slight breeze S of N.O. as usual. Humid but not as humid as the prior 2 days based strictly on my internal monitor. BTL :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 597. nigel20:

Hi tornadodude! I think that about 70 000 people were killed in the 2003 European heatwave if I'm not mistaken.


Heat is brutal!

But, also, I believe much of the parts of Europe affected didn't have much AC? right?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
While the Arctic is melting (though their is significantly more ice this year, than last), Southern Hemisphere Sea Ice is above normal....highest in 34 years.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
not good!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 556. sebastianflorida:

Are They still working on this idea?

Look here (the first part of the video is interesting. But mind, it's only a video, with no deeper proof):

Meteorologists create fake rain to help with heat wave
9:06 AM, Aug 2, 2013 with a raw video

CHINA (CNN) -- Meteorological staff in Hangzhou, the capital of east China's Zhejiang Province, created artificial precipitation on Tuesday, helping ease the continued heat wave that has seared the city since July.

Seven rocket projectiles were launched in Hangzhou's Yuhang District at 15:30 and 16:00 Tuesday afternoon, and around 10 minutes later, rain started to fall.

"The rockets were fired into the sky where they produce a condensation nucleus that generates rainfall when meeting water vapor," said Yang Zhijiang, deputy director of Hngzhou's Yuhang District Meteorological Office.

Currently artificial rainfall has been undertaken in six regions in Zhejing Province, with average temperature from July 1 to July 29 reaching 30.3 degrees Celsius, the highest in 60 years.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tornadodude:


If 10,000 people really died from a heatwave, that is unreal..

Hi tornadodude! I think that about 70 000 people were killed in the 2003 European heatwave if I'm not mistaken.
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 12 Comments: 8486
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082013
200 PM PDT MON AUG 05 2013

THE SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE...
WITH RECENT HINTS OF AN EYE. AN EARLIER 1414 UTC SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALED A MID-LEVEL EYE WITH A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
RING. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KT. LOW SHEAR AND WARM WATERS AHEAD OF
HENRIETTE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONTINUED
INTENSIFICATION...AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
HURRICANE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. IN 24 TO 36 HOURS...HENRIETTE
WILL BE CROSSING A TONGUE OF COOLER SSTS THAT WILL LIKELY SLOW OR
HALT THE STRENGTHENING. LATER IN THE PERIOD... COOLER WATERS AND A
MORE STABLE AIR MASS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING. IF
HENRIETTE MOVES NORTH OF THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IT WOULD
ENCOUNTER MUCH COOLER SSTS AND LIKELY WEAKEN FASTER THAN INDICATED
BELOW.

HENRIETTE HAS MADE ITS MUCH ANTICIPATED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TURN. IT
HAS ALSO GAINED SOME FORWARD SPEED WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 290/8
KT. HENRIETTE SHOULD MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON
THIS CYCLE...AND THE NHC TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED NORTHWARD ONCE
AGAIN TO BE NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. AFTER 48
HOURS...THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT IS PRODUCING THE WEAKNESS IN
THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD
ONCE AGAIN. THIS SHOULD CAUSE HENRIETTE TO TURN BACK TOWARD THE
WEST DURING THE 3- TO 5-DAY TIME PERIOD. AS HENRIETTE WEAKENS AND
BECOMES A SHALLOW CYCLONE...IT IS LIKELY TO MOVE MORE QUICKLY
WESTWARD IN THE BRISK LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 12.8N 129.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 13.6N 130.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 14.8N 131.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 15.8N 133.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 16.7N 134.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 17.5N 138.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 09/1800Z 17.3N 142.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 10/1800Z 17.0N 147.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 578. WPBHurricane05:
I wonder how many SUVs caused this to melt?



Cute! You should send this cartoon to the Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, NOAA, NCAR, the USGS, and every university on the planet. I bet nobody studying climate in any of those places ever noticed that whole previous ice age thing. You'll completely revolutionize the climate research field. You'll be famous.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1972 - The heat waves of 1972 in New York and Northeastern United States were significant. Almost 900 people perished; the heat conditions lasted almost 16 days, aggravated by very high humidity levels.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
Quoting 575. TheDawnAwakening:
Disturbance near 12.5n: 45w is in an area of increasing 850mb vorticity and is getting more circular in nature, could begin developing as it moves wnw over the next few days. Dry stable air remains only detrimental factor towards this area of increasing vorticity.
Between 50-55w and 10-15N cyclonic turning can be seen with that disturbance. I am trying to figure out if that is our catalyst for development in the Western Caribbean and GOM?



FIM-8 really likes it:



Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8774
Quoting 567. Neapolitan:
The thing is, neither the UN article nor the OP here earlier today stated that the 370,000 deaths were either "caused by" or "due to" climate change. The UN article merely states that "...more than 370,000 people died as a result" of "...extreme Floods, droughts and tropical cyclones" that were "...experienced across the world throughout the decade". It then goes on to state, quite correctly, that those extreme events took place in an atmosphere growing increasingly warm due to rapidly rising concentrations of greenhouse gases.They said nothing misleading nor shrill; just basic facts. Some may not like those facts or what they imply. But they are what they are...
phooey. I'm not debating AGW with you....my point in talking about this 370,000 figure is that these types of figures, and what they imply, is doing more harm than good for the cause. I don't like playing fast and loose with the numbers. In this case, as a bare bare bare minimum, when they note that the 370,000 is 20% higher than 10 years ago they should note that world population has increased roughly 15%. So, you're really talking about 18,500 total deaths. How many of the 18,500 to attribute incrementally to climate change? Who knows? But the headline implies 370,000 died due to climate change induced extreme weather.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormpetrol:


Hot as henges of hell as the old folks would say, sorry for anyone without A/C or a good fan. Really stifling hot!

Yeah, 35C was recorded in Kingston on Saturday...It felt like 42C. Sunday was extremely hot as well. I'm really hoping for some rain soon.
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 12 Comments: 8486
Quoting 585. Patrap:
O,,as I was 20 in MCRD Boot Camp that Summer and we lost 5 in 12 weeks there.


Heat wave
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia



1980 - An estimated 10,000 people perished in the 1980 United States heat wave and drought, which impacted the central and eastern United States. Temperatures were highest in the southern plains. From June through September, temperatures remained above 90 F (32 C) all but two days in Kansas City, Missouri. The Dallas/Fort Worth area experienced 42 consecutive days with high temperatures above 100 F (38 C), with temperatures reaching 117 F (47 C) at Wichita Falls, Texas on June 28. Economic losses were $20 billion (1980 dollars).


Wikipedia??

how about the NWS
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/brochures/heat_wave.sh tml

In the disastrous heat wave of 1980, more than 1,250 people died.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 569. PensacolaDoug:




This argument, taken to it's logical conclusion, implies every weather event can be attributed to AGW. Unseasonable cold, agw. Unseasonable warmth, agw. Lots of snow, agw. No snow, agw. Lots of canes and tornadoes, agw. Reduced canes and tornadoes, agw. Drought agw. Floods agw. I prefer the term Global Warming over the term climate change because when this whole debate started, that is what the debate was about.
we have always gotten the weather events its just that the frequency of these events are increasing and instead of being events occurring at normal observable time period its occurring at a much more frequent time scale then before

just like the ice was to take 100's of years to melt we are seeing it in 10 of years instead

it shows we really do not know the true outcome but is a guess outcome with unknown variables
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
Quoting 540. MisterPerfect:


I enjoyed the post. Puts things in perspective. One thing is for sure, the warming planet sure doesn't seem to hinder the human population increase.


but it will.. the human herd is about to be culled...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 585. Patrap:
O,,as I was 20 in MCRD Boot Camp that Summer and we lost 5 in 12 weeks there.


Heat wave
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia



1980 - An estimated 10,000 people perished in the 1980 United States heat wave and drought, which impacted the central and eastern United States. Temperatures were highest in the southern plains. From June through September, temperatures remained above 90 °F (32 °C) all but two days in Kansas City, Missouri. The Dallas/Fort Worth area experienced 42 consecutive days with high temperatures above 100 °F (38 °C), with temperatures reaching 117 °F (47 °C) at Wichita Falls, Texas on June 28. Economic losses were $20 billion (1980 dollars).


If 10,000 people really died from a heatwave, that is unreal..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I was 20 in MCRD Boot Camp,San Diego that Summer and we lost 5 in 12 weeks there.


Heat wave
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia



1980 - An estimated 10,000 people perished in the 1980 United States heat wave and drought, which impacted the central and eastern United States. Temperatures were highest in the southern plains. From June through September, temperatures remained above 90 F (32 C) all but two days in Kansas City, Missouri. The Dallas/Fort Worth area experienced 42 consecutive days with high temperatures above 100 F (38 C), with temperatures reaching 117 F (47 C) at Wichita Falls, Texas on June 28. Economic losses were $20 billion (1980 dollars).
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
Quoting 579. LAbonbon:


I checked the quoted source - it does say 10,000. However, other sources from NWS/NOAA say 'more than 1250' deaths. Good catch. Feel like emailing the authors of the report for more info?


Yeah I'm really curious about that number. I think it's impossible for a drought in the US in 1980 to kill 10,000 people.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
583. yoboi
Quoting 576. tornadodude:
Anyone else find this hard to believe?



My brother is a Dr I will ask him if he ever signed a cause of death as drought.....I will let you know what he has to say about it....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 543. nigel20:

Hi sp! How was the weather in Grand Cayman today?


Hot as henges of hell as the old folks would say, sorry for anyone without A/C or a good fan. Really stifling hot!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Man, the recent rise in sea level is so frightening!



Until you realize history didn't start in 1880.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 460. Patrap:
Climate Change is affecting the northern Jet Stream, we get a Highly amplified Jet with Big Looping Ridges and Troughs, and that is explained here by Dr. Masters and others.


The cool we see in Summer, as well as the lack of Tornadoes in the US in 2012, all points to Climate change.

Never be afraid to learn.

It keeps one in the curve.





Sometimes, if feel people put the cart before the horse.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 576. tornadodude:
Anyone else find this hard to believe?



I checked the quoted source - it does say 10,000. However, other sources from NWS/NOAA say 'more than 1250' deaths. Good catch. Feel like emailing the authors of the report for more info?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I wonder how many SUVs caused this to melt?

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 569. PensacolaDoug:
This argument, taken to it's logical conclusion, implies every weather event can be attributed to AGW. Unseasonable cold, agw. Unseasonable warmth, agw. Lots of snow, agw. No snow, agw. Lots of canes and tornadoes, agw. Reduced canes and tornadoes, agw. Drought agw. Floods agw.
Not "attributed to"--no one credible says that--but certainly "affected by". It's like the old analogy about the steroid-taking baseball player: he would likely have hit a number of home runs even without juicing, so how do you know which ones were due to the drug use, and which are due to skill alone? The answer is, you don't. But you can safely say every swing of his bat has been affected by juice...
Quoting 569. PensacolaDoug:
I prefer the term Global Warming over the term climate change because when this whole debate started, that is what the debate was about.
Well, no; it's long been known as climate change, of which global warming is a primary component.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Anyone else find this hard to believe?



1980 United States Heatwave
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Disturbance near 12.5n: 45w is in an area of increasing 850mb vorticity and is getting more circular in nature, could begin developing as it moves wnw over the next few days. Dry stable air remains only detrimental factor towards this area of increasing vorticity.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Back to tropical weather:



Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8774
Quoting 569. PensacolaDoug:




This argument, taken to it's logical conclusion, implies every weather event can be attributed to AGW. Unseasonable cold, agw. Unseasonable warmth, agw. Lots of snow, agw. No snow, agw. Lots of canes and tornadoes, agw. Reduced canes and tornadoes, agw. Drought agw. Floods agw. I prefer the term Global Warming over the term climate change because when this whole debate started, that is what the debate was about.


remember all those millions upon millions of consecutive perfect weather days before the human being evolved?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Uploaded on Jan 4, 2012

NASA Finds Russian Runoff Freshening Canadian Arctic

The transpolar drift (purple arrows) is a dominant circulation feature in the Arctic Ocean that carries freshwater runoff (red arrows) from rivers in Russia across the North Pole and south towards Greenland. Under changing atmospheric conditions, emergent circulation patterns (blue arrows) drive freshwater runoff east towards Canada, resulting in freshening of Arctic water in the Canada Basin.
Retrieved from: http://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/videog...


PASADENA, Calif. - A new NASA and University of Washington study allays concerns that melting Arctic sea ice could be increasing the amount of freshwater in the Arctic enough to have an impact on the global "ocean conveyor belt" that redistributes heat around our planet.

Lead author and oceanographer Jamie Morison of the University of Washington's Applied Physics Laboratory in Seattle, and his team, detected a previously unknown redistribution of freshwater during the past decade from the Eurasian half of the Arctic Ocean to the Canadian half. Yet despite the redistribution, they found no change in the net amount of freshwater in the Arctic that might signal a change in the conveyor belt.

The team attributes the redistribution to an eastward shift in the path of Russian runoff through the Arctic Ocean, which is tied to an increase in the strength of the Northern Hemisphere's west-to-east atmospheric circulation, known as the Arctic Oscillation. The resulting counterclockwise winds changed the direction of ocean circulation, diverting upper-ocean freshwater from Russian rivers away from the Arctic's Eurasian Basin, between Russia and Greenland, to the Beaufort Sea in the Canada Basin bordered by the United States and Canada. The stronger Arctic Oscillation is associated with two decades of reduced atmospheric pressure over the Russian side of the Arctic. Results of the NASA- and National Science Foundation-funded study are published Jan. 5 in the journal Nature.

Between 2003 and 2008, the resulting redistribution of freshwater was equivalent to adding 10 feet (3 meters) of freshwater over the central Beaufort Sea.

The freshwater changes were seen between 2005 and 2008 by combining ocean bottom pressure, or mass, data from NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment satellites with ocean height data from NASA's ICESat satellite. By calculating the difference between the two sets of measurements, the team was able to map changes in freshwater content over the entire Arctic Ocean, including regions where direct water sample measurements are not available.

"Knowing the pathways of freshwater is important to understanding global climate because freshwater protects sea ice by helping create a strongly stratified cold layer between the ice and warmer, saltier water below that comes into the Arctic from the Atlantic Ocean," said Morison. "The reduction in freshwater entering the Eurasian Basin resulting from the Arctic Oscillation change could contribute to sea ice declines in that part of the Arctic."

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
Quoting 560. MisterPerfect:


no, but that was a cool event. I meant the one around Tennessee the other day.

Lol oh ok

Quoting 561. nigel20:

It was very hot earlier today, but some storm clouds are building ATM. I'm not sure if we'll be getting any rain though.

Yeah cloud are starting to build in over here that's why I haven't lost my sanity yet

Quoting 565. GTstormChaserCaleb:
They have done this in hurricanes too. Next thing you know snow starts falling in a hurricane.

You know I would really love that for our Nov storms that come here

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 460. Patrap:
Climate Change is affecting the northern Jet Stream, we get a Highly amplified Jet with Big Looping Ridges and Troughs, and that is explained here by Dr. Masters and others.


The cool we see in Summer, as well as the lack of Tornadoes in the US in 2012, all points to Climate change.

Never be afraid to learn.

It keeps one in the curve.









This argument, taken to it's logical conclusion, implies every weather event can be attributed to AGW. Unseasonable cold, agw. Unseasonable warmth, agw. Lots of snow, agw. No snow, agw. Lots of canes and tornadoes, agw. Reduced canes and tornadoes, agw. Drought agw. Floods agw. I prefer the term Global Warming over the term climate change because when this whole debate started, that is what the debate was about.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 619 - 569

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron