Hurricanes and Climate Change: Huge Dangers, Huge Unknowns

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:57 AM GMT on August 05, 2013

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Hurricane Sandy's enormous $65 billion price tag put that great storm in third place for the most expensive weather-related disaster in U.S. (and world) history, and six of the ten most expensive U.S. weather-related disasters since 1980 have been hurricanes. Thus, how the strongest hurricanes may be affected due a changing climate is a topic of critical concern. Since hurricanes are heat engines that extract heat energy from the oceans to power themselves, hurricane scientists are confident that the very strongest storms will get stronger by the end of the century, when Earth's land and ocean temperatures are expected to warm 2 - 3°C, to levels unmatched since the Eemian Era, 115,000 years ago. Computer modeling work consistently indicates that greenhouse warming will cause the globally averaged intensity of tropical cyclones to shift towards stronger storms, with intensity increases of 2–11% by 2100. But hurricanes are fussy creations, and are sensitive to wind shear and dry air. Although the strongest storms should get stronger when "perfect storm" conditions are present, these "perfect storm" conditions may become less frequent in the future, due to the presence of higher wind shear, altered atmospheric circulation patterns, or more dry air at mid levels of the atmosphere. Indeed, the climate models used to formulate the 2007 IPCC report suggested that we might see the strongest hurricanes getting stronger, but a decrease in the total number of hurricanes in the Atlantic (and worldwide) later this century. However, the latest set of models used to formulate the 2013 IPCC report left open the possibility that we might see in increase in the total number of hurricanes, and and increase in their intensity. Given the conflicting model results, we really don't know how global warming will affect the number of hurricanes and their intensity, but we run the risk of making one of humanity's greatest scourges worse.


Figure 1. The list of most expensive U.S. weather-related disasters since 1980 is dominated by hurricanes.

Climate models and hurricane frequency
The database we have on historical hurricanes does not extend far enough into the past and is not of high enough quality to make many judgements on how human-caused climate change may be affecting these great storms. A landmark 2010 review paper, "Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change", authored by ten top hurricane scientists concluded that the U.S. has not seen any long-term increase in landfalling tropical storms and hurricanes, and that "it remains uncertain whether past changes in tropical cyclone activity have exceeded the variability expected from natural causes" (tropical cyclone is the generic term which encompasses tropical depressions, tropical storms, hurricanes, and typhoons.) Based in part on modeling studies using climate models run for the 2007 IPCC report, the scientists concluded that "it is likely that global mean tropical cyclone frequency will either decrease or remain unchanged owing to greenhouse warming." For example, one of the modeling studies the review paper quoted, Knutson et al. (2008), "Simulated reduction in Atlantic hurricane frequency under twenty-first-century warming conditions", projected a decrease in Atlantic tropical storms by 27% and hurricanes by 18% by the end of the century. An important reason that their model predicted these decreases was due to a predicted increase in wind shear. As I explain in my wind shear tutorial, a large change of wind speed with height over a hurricane creates a shearing force that tends to tear the storm apart. The amount of wind shear is critical in determining whether a hurricane can form or survive.

But a July 2013 study by MIT's Dr. Kerry Emanuel, "Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century", challenged this result. Dr. Emanuel argued that tropical cyclones are likely to become both stronger and more frequent as the climate continues to warm. This increase is most likely to occur in Western North Pacific, with smaller increases in the Atlantic. Dr. Emanuel took output from six newer higher-resolution climate models used to formulate the 2013 IPCC report, and used the output to drive a high-resolution hurricane model. The simulations found that the global frequency of tropical cyclones would increase by 11% to 40% by 2100, with intensity increases as well. The combined effects produced a global increase in Category 3 and stronger hurricanes of 40%. The behavior of these strongest hurricanes is critical, since they do most of the damage we observe. Over the past century, Category 3 - 5 hurricanes accounted for 85% of US hurricane damage, despite representing only 24% of U.S. landfalling storms. Category 4 and 5 hurricanes made up only 6% of all U.S. landfalls, but accounted for 48% of all U.S. damage (if normalized to account for increases in U.S. population and wealth, see Pielke et al., 2008.)


Figure 2. Projected changes in tropical cyclone track density during the 2006-2100 period compared to the 1950-2005 period, using output from six climate models included in the 2013 IPCC report. The global frequency of tropical cyclones is predicted to increase by 11% to 40%, with the largest changes occurring in the Northwest Pacific off the coast of Japan. Smaller increases are predicted for the Atlantic and near Australia. Image credit: Kerry Emanuel, "Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century", Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, July 8, 2013, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1301293110.

However, a study by Knutson et al. (2013), using the same latest-generation climate models as used by Emanuel (2013), but using the output from the models to drive a different high-resolution hurricane model, found a 20% decrease in Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes by 2100. Two other 2013 studies by Villarini et al. and Camargo, also using output from the 2013 IPCC models, found essentially no change in Atlantic tropical cyclones. The reason for the differences, lies, in part, with how much global warming is assumed in the studies. Dr. Emanuel's study, which found an increase in tropical cyclone activity, assumed a worst-case warming situation (RCP 8.5), following the "business as usual" emissions path humanity is currently on. The Knutson et al. study, which found a decrease of 20% in Atlantic tropical cyclones, used a scenario (RCP 4.5) where it was assumed humans will wise up and cause about half of the worst-case greenhouse warming. The study found found "marginally significant" increases in Atlantic Category 4 and 5 hurricanes of 39% - 45% by 2100. These dramatically different results give credence to Dr. Emanuel statement at the end of his paper, "the response of tropical cyclones to projected climate change will remain uncertain for some time to come." The 2013 IPCC report also emphasized the high amount of uncertainty in how climate change might affect hurricanes, stating that there was "low confidence" that we have observed any increases in intense tropical cyclones due to human causes. However, since the 1970s, it is virtually certain (99 - 100% chance) that the frequency and intensity of hurricanes and tropical storms in the North Atlantic has increased, and there is medium confidence that a reduction in small air pollution particles (aerosols) over the North Atlantic caused part of this effect. The report's forecast for the future stated that it is "more likely than not" (50 - 100% chance) that human-caused climate change will cause a substantial increase in intense tropical cyclones in some ocean basins by 2100, with the Western North Pacific and Atlantic being at particular risk. Also, there will likely (66 - 100% chance) be an increase in both global mean tropical cyclone maximum wind speed and rain rates by 2100, and more likely than not (50 - 100% chance) that the increase in the most intense tropical cyclones will be larger than 10% in some basins.


Figure 3. Expected change in Atlantic Category 4 and 5 hurricanes per decade expected by the year 2100, according to Knutson et al. (2013), "Dynamical Downscaling Projections of 21st Century Atlantic Hurricane Activity: CMIP3 and CMIP5 Model-based Scenarios." This research used the latest generation of climate models from the 2013 IPCC report, and found "marginally significant" increases in Atlantic Category 4 and 5 hurricanes of 39% - 45% by 2100.

Commentary
Hurricane damages are currently doubling every ten years without the effect of climate change, according to Pielke et al., 2008. This is primarily due to the increasing population along the coast and increased wealth of the population. The authors theorize that the Great Miami Hurricane of 1926, a Category 4 monster that made a direct hit on Miami Beach, would have caused about $150 billion in damage had it hit in 2005. Thus, by 2015, the same hurricane would do $300 billion in damage, and $600 billion by 2025. This is without considering the impact that accelerating sea level rise will have on storm surge damages. Global sea level rise over the past decade has been about double what it was in the 20th century, and the rate of sea level rise is expected to increase further in the coming decades. Storm surge does the majority of damage in major hurricanes, and storm surges riding on top of higher sea levels are going to do a lot more damage in the coming decades. If we toss in the (controversial) increases in Category 3 and stronger storms like Dr. Emanuel suggests may occur, the hurricane damage math gets very impressive. We can also add onto that the relatively non-controversial increase in tropical cyclone rainfall of 20% expected by 2100, which will sharply increase damages due to fresh water river flooding. It is controversial whether or not we are already be seeing an increase in heavy precipitation events associated with tropical cyclones in the U.S., though. The total number of daily rainfall events exceeding 2" associated with tropical cyclones in the Southeast U.S. on a century time scale has not changed significantly, according to Groisman et al., 2004. But a 2010 study by Kunkel et al., "Recent increases in U.S. heavy precipitation associated with tropical cyclones", found that the number of Southeast U.S. tropical cyclone heavy precipitation events, defined as 1-in-5-year events, more than doubled between 1994 - 2008, compared to the long-term average from 1895 - 2008.


Figure 4. Time series of the 15-year running average (plotted at the end point of the 15-yr blocks) of a Tropical Cyclone Heavy Precipitation Index (red) and 15-year running average of U.S. landfalling hurricanes (blue). Note that there has been no long-term increase in U.S. landfalling hurricanes, but there has been a sharp increase in extreme rainfall events associated with landfalling tropical cyclones--the kind of rainfall events most likely to cause damaging flooding. Image credit: Kunkel et al. (2010), "Recent increases in U.S. heavy precipitation associated with tropical cyclones", Geophysical Research Letters.

It is essential that we limit coastal development in vulnerable coastal areas, particularly along barrier islands, to reduce some of the astronomical price tags hurricanes are going to be causing in the future. Adoption and enforcement of strict building standards is also a must, as well as more reforms to the government's National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), which subsidizes development in high-risk coastal regions that private insurers won't touch. NFIP is now $25 - 30 billion in the red, thanks to Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Sandy. Reform of NFIP is already underway. In 2012, before Sandy hit, Congress passed the Biggert-Waters Flood Insurance Reform Act, which requires people with NFIP policies to pay large premium increases of about 25% per year over the next five years. Naturally, this move has caused major controversy.

References
Camargo, S., (2013), "Global and regional aspects of tropical cyclone activity in the CMIP5 models," J. Climate.

Emanuel, K.A., 2013, "Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century", PNAS, July 8, 2013, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1301293110

Groisman, Pavel Ya, et al., "Contemporary changes of the hydrological cycle over the contiguous United States: Trends derived from in situ observations," Journal of Hydrometeorology 5.1 (2004): 64-85.

Knutson et al., 2010, "Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change", Nature Geoscience 3, 157 - 163, Published online: 21 February 2010 | doi:10.1038/ngeo779

Knutson et al., 2013, Dynamical Downscaling Projections of 21st Century Atlantic Hurricane Activity: CMIP3 and CMIP5 Model-based Scenarios, Journal of Climate 2013 ; e-View
doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00539.1

Pielke, R.A, et al., 2008, "Normalized Hurricane Damage in the United States: 1900 - 2005," Natural Hazards Review, DOI:10.1061/ASCE1527-6988(2008)9:1(29)

Villarini, G, and G.A. Vecchi, 2012, "Twenty-first-century projections of North Atlantic tropical storms from CMIP5 models," Nature Clim. Change 2:604–607.

Related posts
Global warming and the frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes: model results, my 2010 blog post.

Climate Central's analysis of the new 2013 Kerry Emanuel paper.

Goodbye, Miami: Jeff Goodell's sobering 2013 article in Rolling Stone on the challenges Miami faces due to sea level rise and hurricanes.


What the official climate assessments say about climate change and hurricanes
The 2013 IPCC report gives “low confidence”--a 20% chance--that we have observed a human-caused increase in intense hurricanes in some parts of the world. This is a reduction in odds from the 2007 report, which said that it was more likely than not (greater than 50% chance.) The IPCC likely took note of a landmark 2010 review paper, "Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change", authored by ten top hurricane scientists, which concluded that the U.S. had not seen any long-term increase in landfalling tropical storms and hurricanes, and that "it remains uncertain whether past changes in tropical cyclone activity have exceeded the variability expected from natural causes." The 2013 IPCC report predicts that there is a greater than 50% chance (more likely than not) that we will see a human-caused increase in intense hurricanes by 2100 in some regions; this is also a reduction from the 2007 report, which said this would be likely (66% chance or higher.)

The May 2014 United States National Climate Assessment found that “The intensity, frequency, and duration of North Atlantic hurricanes, as well as the frequency of the strongest (Category 4 and 5) hurricanes, have all increased since the early 1980s. The relative contributions of human and natural causes to these increases are still uncertain. Hurricane-associated storm intensity and rainfall rates are projected to increase as the climate continues to warm.”

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 2414. mitchelace5:


Looks like whatever forms there will recurve.
that is a fish storm
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2416. Ameister12:
WFUS53 KGRB 070605
TORGRB
WIC071-070630-
/O.NEW.KGRB.TO.W.0006.130807T0605Z-130807T0630Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
105 AM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREEN BAY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN MANITOWOC COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...

* UNTIL 130 AM CDT

* AT 104 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF TWO CREEKS...AND MOVING EAST AT
100 MPH
.

HAZARD...TORNADO...SMALL HAIL AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO
ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS
WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. TREE DAMAGE IS
LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TWO CREEKS AND POINT BEACH NUCLEAR PLANT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 4427 8786 4433 8787 4433 8754 4429 8753
4426 8751 4424 8750
TIME...MOT...LOC 0605Z 272DEG 88KT 4431 8766

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN



WTH?!? Storm moving at 100mph!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good early morning all! Hey, I was noticing two areas of spin near and just east of the Lesser Antilles. Wind shear is light, waters are warm... The only hinderance that I see is some dry air (but to a lesser degree than the past couple of days). Barbados has been reporting S to SW winds for the past several hours. Does anyone think there is a chance of development in that area?

I noticed the NHC stated in their 8pm discussion that there is a 1012mb low around 14/48... But also mentioned a surface trough could be developing around 60W. Hmmm...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
WFUS53 KGRB 070605
TORGRB
WIC071-070630-
/O.NEW.KGRB.TO.W.0006.130807T0605Z-130807T0630Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
105 AM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREEN BAY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN MANITOWOC COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...

* UNTIL 130 AM CDT

* AT 104 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF TWO CREEKS...AND MOVING EAST AT
100 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO...SMALL HAIL AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO
ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS
WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. TREE DAMAGE IS
LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TWO CREEKS AND POINT BEACH NUCLEAR PLANT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 4427 8786 4433 8787 4433 8754 4429 8753
4426 8751 4424 8750
TIME...MOT...LOC 0605Z 272DEG 88KT 4431 8766

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN

Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8453
Quoting stormchaser19:
Here we go!!!



Looks like whatever forms there will recurve.
Member Since: July 27, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 501
Here we go!!!

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2412. whitewabit (Mod)
Quoting 2352. KoritheMan:


Maybe LSU since it's close to where I live. Plus I only need to be there for a semester or two before I am able to join the Air Force, from what I understand.


don't believe everything the recruiters tell you !!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2405. sar2401:

True, but I just got through reading a book on airpower and the Vietnam War. About half the missions were flow by reservists. These were guys with regular jobs stateside who were called up to fly fighter-bomber and transport aircraft during the war. Unlike the regular Air Force, which had to serve one year and couldn't be sent back unless they volunteered, reserves could be demobilized one day and immediately mobilized the next day. Some guys served three and four years. Enlisted and non-comms were stuck, since they could be courts martialed and sent to Leavenworth if they didn't go. Officers could resign their commissions, but they lost their pensions and benefits for life. Same thing happened in Desert Storm and the recent unpleasantness. It sounds cool to be flying hurricane missions, but you could just as easily be called up to fly weather recon in a hot area where the enemy is firing AAA and antiaircraft missiles at you.

Like I said, it could take a real chunk out of your life, including not coming back again.
If everybody think like that, we would not have a military that would serve for our wonderful country. It's a huge sacrifice to make but it's their choice and why we all respect our veterans. Also Walmart is as low of rank as you can get for a job. Military is probably better than Walmart and I would've done the same thing if I am strong enough, brave enough, and not lot of life choices. Good luck, Kori!
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8031
2410. nigel20
I'm out! Good night all!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
GFS is also trying to show something consolidate too. Monsoonal development accompanied by a low amplitude tropical wave and upward motion of the MJO, remains to be seen if we get an actual system or a large area of disorganized showers and t'storms that can never quite get going.

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8453
Quoting 2402. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Only you could bring in Walmart to a discussion about the Air Force and Hurricane Hunters. SMH.
Well, Kori works at Walmart and I used to work there too. I understand how Walmart is not exactly a great career choice unless you got no choice. Look, it's a huge honor to serve your country and you actually get respect from the public unlike lack of respect a common Walmart worker get. Walmart workers very rarely get treated right.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8031
2407. sar2401
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
Just a reminder that somewhere in the Atlantic basin there will be the potential for development between now and the 20th. Hard to pinpoint an exact location, but the Gulf, Caribbean, and Atlantic are fair game. The FIM is showing Gulf development while the other models aren't as bullish, whereas the GFS model shows development near the Cape-Verde islands in a few days and is now showing another storm in that region in the long range. If something were to develop I wouldn't expect it to be strong as conditions aren't perfect just yet, but a strong TS/ weak Cat. 1 hurricane is not out of the question between now and the 20th. After the 20th is when the real action starts. As TAwx13 and a couple of the other guys have said, "be patient."

I've been saying for a month that the first hurricane will form in the Western Gulf and make landfall on the Texas /Mexico border. It will be a cat 1 and bring beneficial rain to Texas and Mexico. I have no clue about the date, but the 20th seems as good as any. We'll see if I'm anywhere near close to right.
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CMC has a surface reflection in the SW Caribbean nearing Nicaragua in 174 hrs. around the same time frame the FIM wants to start consolidating something. The EPAC looks to remain active as well. This is probably suggesting the MJO returning.

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8453
2405. sar2401
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Better than Walmart, IMO. And you get the serve the country.

True, but I just got through reading a book on airpower and the Vietnam War. About half the missions were flow by reservists. These were guys with regular jobs stateside who were called up to fly fighter-bomber and transport aircraft during the war. Unlike the regular Air Force, which had to serve one year and couldn't be sent back unless they volunteered, reserves could be demobilized one day and immediately mobilized the next day. Some guys served three and four years. Enlisted and non-comms were stuck, since they could be courts martialed and sent to Leavenworth if they didn't go. Officers could resign their commissions, but they lost their pensions and benefits for life. Same thing happened in Desert Storm and the recent unpleasantness. It sounds cool to be flying hurricane missions, but you could just as easily be called up to fly weather recon in a hot area where the enemy is firing AAA and antiaircraft missiles at you.

Like I said, it could take a real chunk out of your life, including not coming back again.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2404. GatorWX
Great post dr m. This may be the first and only time I disagree. Although it obvious one would think that by simply increasing the heat, the strength of tc's would correlate. This doesn't seem to be the case. I know you've noticed the increase in sheer as well. Any low pressure region benefits from warne,r moister air, not just tc's. Everything is amplifies so to speak. I wish I could have a genuine conversation. You'd be very interesting to have a discussion with. Some day. I wouldn't be in the position to make comments without you. Thanks again.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Just a reminder that somewhere in the Atlantic basin there will be the potential for development between now and the 20th. Hard to pinpoint an exact location, but the Gulf, Caribbean, and Atlantic are fair game. The FIM is showing Gulf development while the other models aren't as bullish, whereas the GFS model shows development near the Cape-Verde islands in a few days and is now showing another storm in that region in the long range. If something were to develop I wouldn't expect it to be strong as conditions aren't perfect just yet, but a strong TS/ weak Cat. 1 hurricane is not out of the question between now and the 20th. After the 20th is when the real action starts. As TAwx13 and a couple of the other guys have said, "be patient."
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8453
Quoting 2400. Bluestorm5:
Better than Walmart, IMO. And you get the serve the country.

Only you could bring in Walmart to a discussion about the Air Force and Hurricane Hunters. SMH.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32286
Quoting 2390. redwagon:


You should see Lake Travis. It's beyond comprehension, like if the Mississippi just dried up.

Many thousands of jobs have been lost, property values plummeting, tourism gone. But this has happened once before in '51-'54, when some storms, namely Barbara I believe, dumped enough rain to fill 'er right back up.

This storm the FIM is predicting is the only hope we've had for years, but it looks pretty strong. It will kill drought over most of those withering from it if it verifies.

With the pace we are going at right now, the water levels for the Highland Lakes could drop below the record lows from the 50s by the end of September.
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Quoting 2398. sar2401:

Kori, all the Hurricane Hunters are, I believe, members of the Air Force Reserve. I guess you have to first prove yourself in the regular Air Force and then commit to some period of time in the active reserves. I don't know exactly how it works, but it sounds like a big chunk out of your life.
Better than Walmart, IMO. And you get the serve the country.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8031
Quoting 2397. 1900hurricane:
Let's play "Find the Death Ridge!"



Thank you! We've been wondering where FIM was getting the storm to visit us on the 20th. It would appear its genesis is on the BOC, but it also looks like it may be a basin-jumper like Hermine.
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3276
2398. sar2401
Quoting KoritheMan:


I did consider the hurricane hunters as a possibility, although I'll have to see where life takes me.



Thanks!

Kori, all the Hurricane Hunters are, I believe, members of the Air Force Reserve. I guess you have to first prove yourself in the regular Air Force and then commit to some period of time in the active reserves. I don't know exactly how it works, but it sounds like a big chunk out of your life.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Let's play "Find the Death Ridge!"

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2396. sar2401
Quoting moonlightcowboy:


Ever read Toffler?

He described information/knowledge in terms of future shock, or that it's the shattering stress and disorientation subjected to an individual(s) by too much change in too short of time.

And, that knowledge was inversely proportional to time itself. In other words, the more we learn the faster we learn, and that there's a point out there for each of us, and for society, when that integral point is breached in that we are learning so fast that all that we have learned becomes quickly obsolete. And, it's not just true of knowledge in the purest sense, but also in economics, medicine, etc. For example: there's a new pill out nearly everyday these days to treat the same illness one may have had just months, maybe even just weeks ago. It easy to discern how one can't keep up, and the truth is, eventually, no one can.

Toffler called that instant the "turning point", the point in which we start to regress as a person, as a society. Consider the world population, consider the US debt alone, even consider anthropogenic global warming as true, and the amount and pace at which new information is derived and consumed that even yesterday's knowledge becomes antiquated or obsolete.

Oh, yes, I graduated in 1976, so "Future Shock" was all the rage at the time. With the advantage of 40+ years to look back at Toffler's ideas, it's easy to see what he got right and what he got wrong.

What he got right was that, in a post industrial society, almost everything we'd have would be disposable. As a ham radio operator, it's amazing for me to have lived long enough to see a handheld two-way radio that sold for $800 in 1980 now being replaced with a Chinese made counterpart with hundreds of better features and abilities that costs $34. If it breaks, you strip off a few parts and literally throw the rest away. Even computers are generally cheaper to toss and buy a new one than try to find a way to get the old one repaired.

What he didn't get right is "information overload". He grossly underestimated human ability to take in information and filter only what they needed. This site is a great example. There wasn't such a thing as the Weather Underground or even the internet in 1970, when Toffler wrote his book. He correctly foresaw the avalanche of information that was coming, but he didn't understand that humans wouldn't get buried by it. There is more information available at Weather Underground than there was in the entire meteorological community in 1970. We have enough models, graphics, maps, studies, and articles to keep you busy for literally the rest of your life - and this is just one tiny part of the internet. Humans just increased the ability they always had, which is to discard non-useful information while learning more about what's useful. Toffler assumed that, like a sponge, we would soak up information until we exploded. He never gave enough credit to both human ingenuity in information processing and basic human laziness. There are a fair bit of people who don't know more about anything now than they did in 1970. That intellectual laziness is what kept future shock from really overwhelming our society. How else can one explain "Dancing with the Stars"? :-)
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2395. JLPR2
Now that we have some more frames, the GFS also has for a little while the low the CMC wanted to develop, but it drops it further west.

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2394. nigel20
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
Might take a slow moving Tropical Storm to do the trick, hopefully nothing on the order of Allison though.

Yeah, an Allison type storm would not be good.
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Quoting 2386. Bluestorm5:
Trying to be meteorologist for Air Force? Hurricane Hunters?


I did consider the hurricane hunters as a possibility, although I'll have to see where life takes me.

Quoting 2387. Naga5000:


Good luck to you, Kori.


Thanks!
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Well well well lookie here. The 00z gfs showed something decent in its run
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The GFS seems to be running a little buggy lately.

Stops at 135 hrs. and picks up back again at 204 hrs.

Link
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8453
Quoting 2381. RGVtropicalWx13:

Omg that looks horrible!! :o


You should see Lake Travis. It's beyond comprehension, like if the Mississippi just dried up.

Many thousands of jobs have been lost, property values plummeting, tourism gone. But this has happened once before in '51-'54, when some storms, namely Barbara I believe, dumped enough rain to fill 'er right back up.

This storm the FIM is predicting is the only hope we've had for years, but it looks pretty strong. It will kill drought over most of those withering from it if it verifies.
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3276
I'm really wondering if the FIM model is going to take over the GFS??
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2388. JLPR2
00z GFS long range showing the development of a possible tropical storm.

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Quoting 2352. KoritheMan:


Maybe LSU since it's close to where I live. Plus I only need to be there for a semester or two before I am able to join the Air Force, from what I understand.


Good luck to you, Kori.
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Quoting 2352. KoritheMan:


Maybe LSU since it's close to where I live. Plus I only need to be there for a semester or two before I am able to join the Air Force, from what I understand.
Trying to be meteorologist for Air Force? Hurricane Hunters?
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8031
Quoting 2375. SuperStorm093:


Well the models last year were showing development, not this year, so I can't say I will go by weather conditions.

Well I Can tell you the GFS has been having trouble picking out potential tropical cyclones just as the EURO. Although the GFS is super computer model now. Remember now hints of a TC means conditions are ripe and it'll show by next week!
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E D I T

Quoting 2367. sar2401:

I got "stuck" in this course because I needed one more liberal arts credit to graduate. I really thought it would be boring as heck but it turned out to be one of best course I took in school. At its most elemental, you get asked "How do we know what we think is true is actually true?". It really gave my brain a workout, especially when I was young, since I thought I already knew all those answers. Even if you're going to major in a straight science, epistemology still teaches you how to evaluate what other scientist say is true, especially when its truth reached by consensus, one of the most potentially dangerous aspects of science.


Ever read Toffler?

He described information/knowledge in terms of future shock, or that it's the shattering stress and disorientation subjected to an individual(s) by too much change in too short of time.

And, that knowledge was inversely proportional to time itself. In other words, the more we learn the faster we learn even more, and that there's a point out there for each of us, and for society, when that integral point is breached in that we are learning so fast that much of what we have learned becomes more quickly obsolete. And, it's not just true of knowledge in the purest sense, but also in science, technology, economics, medicine, etc. For example: there's a new pill out nearly everyday these days to treat the same illness one may have had just months, maybe even just weeks ago. It easy to discern how one can't keep up, and the truth is, eventually, no one can.

Toffler called that instant the "turning point", the point in which we start to regress as a person, as a society. Consider the world population, consider the US debt alone, even consider anthropogenic global warming as true, and the amount and pace at which new information is derived and consumed that even yesterday's knowledge becomes antiquated or obsolete.
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Quoting 2350. Pallis:
The gulf coast is just used to it. We clean up a lot of our mess with volunteer workers or pay for it out of pocket and insurance. New Jersey has a corrupt Governor who has three cities on the verge of Detroit, and mafia friends who are contractors too. These guys want Federal money to pay for stolen pensions, but the only problem is that only 4% of FEMA money actually goes to disaster relief. That means for FEMA to give them any significant money a whole lot more needs to be wasted by FEMA. This is not a good scenario to continue in my humble opinion. 96% waste.


4%, where does that number come from? If you look at these few sources, you'll see a few things. First, Disaster Relief Funding Link is requested separate from other funding for FEMA and is tracked with full transparency by month to month reports here: Link The rest of FEMA's budget (non disaster relief) can be found here Link

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Quoting 2379. redwagon:


..la da da dee da da da da...

Is it more like

la da da DEE da can you put some punctuation in there?
Thanks, I got it from Brian and Nigel, it was "Be My Lover" by La Bouche.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8453
Quoting 2366. AtHomeInTX:
I don't know if this one is coming back. Lake Travis is in real bad shape too.


Omg that looks horrible!! :o
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Quoting 2374. nigel20:

Wow! It will take quite a bit of rain to recover above the current level.
Might take a slow moving Tropical Storm to do the trick, hopefully nothing on the order of Allison though.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8453
Quoting 2357. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Nice song and artist, Gloria Gaynor is a legend, but the one I am looking for goes something like this...la da da dee da da da da...not sure if she sings it, but I know it is a woman.


..la da da dee da da da da...

Is it more like

la da da DEE da can you put some punctuation in there?
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3276
Quoting 2374. nigel20:

Wow! It will take quite a bit of rain to recover above the current level.


Yes it would. And somehow the rain that has fallen hasn't been in the right place to fill the reservoirs. Some wide spread soaking rains would be nice.
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Quoting 2351. Grothar:


Thanks,Woody. I don't think I've been called a "dude" in years. :)

Well Good Night boys and girls.

Brian, practice your Norwegian
redwagon keep hoping for rain along with AtHomeInTexas
sar, just behave yourself
Caleb, keep posting those interesting articles.
Kori...well, Kori is Kori!!!
TropicalAnlayst, I want a full report on the the next tropical wave.

You all have a good evening



LOL same to you and have a good night Grothar. :D
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8453
2376. sar2401
Quoting Pallis:
The gulf coast is just used to it. We clean up a lot of our mess with volunteer workers or pay for it out of pocket and insurance. New Jersey has a corrupt Governor who has three cities on the verge of Detroit, and mafia friends who are contractors too. These guys want Federal money to pay for stolen pensions, but the only problem is that only 4% of FEMA money actually goes to disaster relief. That means for FEMA to give them any significant money a whole lot more needs to be wasted by FEMA. This is not a good scenario to continue in my humble opinion. 96% waste.

I was not part of FEMA but have done a fair bit of work with FEMA in my former role as an emergency manager. Where did you come up the 4% figure? This is completely at odds with my experience with FEMA. It's a government agency, and has the usual fraud and abuse problems that all large agencies, government or private have, but your figure, unless you can show me a link, seems completely made up to me. There are enough things to ding FEMA for without making things up.
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Quoting 2370. RGVtropicalWx13:
I guess Super wants to see every model run for development . I can tell u it won't show too much on it again. Remember just go by the actual weather conditions instead of looking at every weather model. The only the time I would look a weather model is when it has aircraft data from the hurricane hunters. Weather models after 120 hours are subject to change a lot.


Well the models last year were showing development, not this year, so I can't say I will go by weather conditions.
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2374. nigel20
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
I don't know if this one is coming back. Lake Travis is in real bad shape too.


Wow! It will take quite a bit of rain to recover above the current level.
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Quoting 2354. TropicalAnalystwx13:

No, you're going to Florida State University like I am.


We can meet up at the National Hurricane Center in good time, don't you worry.
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Nevermind Pcola there is nothing there. The wave around 26 W 10 N looks good.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8453
2371. sar2401
Quoting Grothar:


Thanks,Woody. I don't think I've been called a "dude" in years. :)

Well Good Night boys and girls.

Brian, practice your Norwegian
redwagon keep hoping for rain along with AtHomeInTexas
sar, just behave yourself
Caleb, keep posting those interesting articles.
Kori...well, Kori is Kori!!!
TropicalAnlayst, I want a full report on the the next tropical wave.

You all have a good evening




GN, Gro. I will do my best to behave myself, but it almost never works. :-) BTW, my niece has some questions for you, so I'll send you an e-mail.
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I guess Super wants to see every model run for development . I can tell u it won't show too much on it again. Remember just go by the actual weather conditions instead of looking at every weather model. The only the time I would look a weather model is when it has aircraft data from the hurricane hunters. Weather models after 120 hours are subject to change a lot.
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Quoting 2351. Grothar:


Thanks,Woody. I don't think I've been called a "dude" in years. :)

Well Good Night boys and girls.

Brian, practice your Norwegian
redwagon keep hoping for rain along with AtHomeInTexas
sar, just behave yourself
Caleb, keep posting those interesting articles.
Kori...well, Kori is Kori!!!
TropicalAnlayst, I want a full report on the the next tropical wave.

You all have a good evening





Night Grothar I'm responding late as usual. :)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.