Hurricanes and Climate Change: Huge Dangers, Huge Unknowns

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:57 AM GMT on August 05, 2013

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Hurricane Sandy's enormous $65 billion price tag put that great storm in third place for the most expensive weather-related disaster in U.S. (and world) history, and six of the ten most expensive U.S. weather-related disasters since 1980 have been hurricanes. Thus, how the strongest hurricanes may be affected due a changing climate is a topic of critical concern. Since hurricanes are heat engines that extract heat energy from the oceans to power themselves, hurricane scientists are confident that the very strongest storms will get stronger by the end of the century, when Earth's land and ocean temperatures are expected to warm 2 - 3°C, to levels unmatched since the Eemian Era, 115,000 years ago. Computer modeling work consistently indicates that greenhouse warming will cause the globally averaged intensity of tropical cyclones to shift towards stronger storms, with intensity increases of 2–11% by 2100. But hurricanes are fussy creations, and are sensitive to wind shear and dry air. Although the strongest storms should get stronger when "perfect storm" conditions are present, these "perfect storm" conditions may become less frequent in the future, due to the presence of higher wind shear, altered atmospheric circulation patterns, or more dry air at mid levels of the atmosphere. Indeed, the climate models used to formulate the 2007 IPCC report suggested that we might see the strongest hurricanes getting stronger, but a decrease in the total number of hurricanes in the Atlantic (and worldwide) later this century. However, the latest set of models used to formulate the 2013 IPCC report left open the possibility that we might see in increase in the total number of hurricanes, and and increase in their intensity. Given the conflicting model results, we really don't know how global warming will affect the number of hurricanes and their intensity, but we run the risk of making one of humanity's greatest scourges worse.


Figure 1. The list of most expensive U.S. weather-related disasters since 1980 is dominated by hurricanes.

Climate models and hurricane frequency
The database we have on historical hurricanes does not extend far enough into the past and is not of high enough quality to make many judgements on how human-caused climate change may be affecting these great storms. A landmark 2010 review paper, "Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change", authored by ten top hurricane scientists concluded that the U.S. has not seen any long-term increase in landfalling tropical storms and hurricanes, and that "it remains uncertain whether past changes in tropical cyclone activity have exceeded the variability expected from natural causes" (tropical cyclone is the generic term which encompasses tropical depressions, tropical storms, hurricanes, and typhoons.) Based in part on modeling studies using climate models run for the 2007 IPCC report, the scientists concluded that "it is likely that global mean tropical cyclone frequency will either decrease or remain unchanged owing to greenhouse warming." For example, one of the modeling studies the review paper quoted, Knutson et al. (2008), "Simulated reduction in Atlantic hurricane frequency under twenty-first-century warming conditions", projected a decrease in Atlantic tropical storms by 27% and hurricanes by 18% by the end of the century. An important reason that their model predicted these decreases was due to a predicted increase in wind shear. As I explain in my wind shear tutorial, a large change of wind speed with height over a hurricane creates a shearing force that tends to tear the storm apart. The amount of wind shear is critical in determining whether a hurricane can form or survive.

But a July 2013 study by MIT's Dr. Kerry Emanuel, "Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century", challenged this result. Dr. Emanuel argued that tropical cyclones are likely to become both stronger and more frequent as the climate continues to warm. This increase is most likely to occur in Western North Pacific, with smaller increases in the Atlantic. Dr. Emanuel took output from six newer higher-resolution climate models used to formulate the 2013 IPCC report, and used the output to drive a high-resolution hurricane model. The simulations found that the global frequency of tropical cyclones would increase by 11% to 40% by 2100, with intensity increases as well. The combined effects produced a global increase in Category 3 and stronger hurricanes of 40%. The behavior of these strongest hurricanes is critical, since they do most of the damage we observe. Over the past century, Category 3 - 5 hurricanes accounted for 85% of US hurricane damage, despite representing only 24% of U.S. landfalling storms. Category 4 and 5 hurricanes made up only 6% of all U.S. landfalls, but accounted for 48% of all U.S. damage (if normalized to account for increases in U.S. population and wealth, see Pielke et al., 2008.)


Figure 2. Projected changes in tropical cyclone track density during the 2006-2100 period compared to the 1950-2005 period, using output from six climate models included in the 2013 IPCC report. The global frequency of tropical cyclones is predicted to increase by 11% to 40%, with the largest changes occurring in the Northwest Pacific off the coast of Japan. Smaller increases are predicted for the Atlantic and near Australia. Image credit: Kerry Emanuel, "Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century", Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, July 8, 2013, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1301293110.

However, a study by Knutson et al. (2013), using the same latest-generation climate models as used by Emanuel (2013), but using the output from the models to drive a different high-resolution hurricane model, found a 20% decrease in Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes by 2100. Two other 2013 studies by Villarini et al. and Camargo, also using output from the 2013 IPCC models, found essentially no change in Atlantic tropical cyclones. The reason for the differences, lies, in part, with how much global warming is assumed in the studies. Dr. Emanuel's study, which found an increase in tropical cyclone activity, assumed a worst-case warming situation (RCP 8.5), following the "business as usual" emissions path humanity is currently on. The Knutson et al. study, which found a decrease of 20% in Atlantic tropical cyclones, used a scenario (RCP 4.5) where it was assumed humans will wise up and cause about half of the worst-case greenhouse warming. The study found found "marginally significant" increases in Atlantic Category 4 and 5 hurricanes of 39% - 45% by 2100. These dramatically different results give credence to Dr. Emanuel statement at the end of his paper, "the response of tropical cyclones to projected climate change will remain uncertain for some time to come." The 2013 IPCC report also emphasized the high amount of uncertainty in how climate change might affect hurricanes, stating that there was "low confidence" that we have observed any increases in intense tropical cyclones due to human causes. However, since the 1970s, it is virtually certain (99 - 100% chance) that the frequency and intensity of hurricanes and tropical storms in the North Atlantic has increased, and there is medium confidence that a reduction in small air pollution particles (aerosols) over the North Atlantic caused part of this effect. The report's forecast for the future stated that it is "more likely than not" (50 - 100% chance) that human-caused climate change will cause a substantial increase in intense tropical cyclones in some ocean basins by 2100, with the Western North Pacific and Atlantic being at particular risk. Also, there will likely (66 - 100% chance) be an increase in both global mean tropical cyclone maximum wind speed and rain rates by 2100, and more likely than not (50 - 100% chance) that the increase in the most intense tropical cyclones will be larger than 10% in some basins.


Figure 3. Expected change in Atlantic Category 4 and 5 hurricanes per decade expected by the year 2100, according to Knutson et al. (2013), "Dynamical Downscaling Projections of 21st Century Atlantic Hurricane Activity: CMIP3 and CMIP5 Model-based Scenarios." This research used the latest generation of climate models from the 2013 IPCC report, and found "marginally significant" increases in Atlantic Category 4 and 5 hurricanes of 39% - 45% by 2100.

Commentary
Hurricane damages are currently doubling every ten years without the effect of climate change, according to Pielke et al., 2008. This is primarily due to the increasing population along the coast and increased wealth of the population. The authors theorize that the Great Miami Hurricane of 1926, a Category 4 monster that made a direct hit on Miami Beach, would have caused about $150 billion in damage had it hit in 2005. Thus, by 2015, the same hurricane would do $300 billion in damage, and $600 billion by 2025. This is without considering the impact that accelerating sea level rise will have on storm surge damages. Global sea level rise over the past decade has been about double what it was in the 20th century, and the rate of sea level rise is expected to increase further in the coming decades. Storm surge does the majority of damage in major hurricanes, and storm surges riding on top of higher sea levels are going to do a lot more damage in the coming decades. If we toss in the (controversial) increases in Category 3 and stronger storms like Dr. Emanuel suggests may occur, the hurricane damage math gets very impressive. We can also add onto that the relatively non-controversial increase in tropical cyclone rainfall of 20% expected by 2100, which will sharply increase damages due to fresh water river flooding. It is controversial whether or not we are already be seeing an increase in heavy precipitation events associated with tropical cyclones in the U.S., though. The total number of daily rainfall events exceeding 2" associated with tropical cyclones in the Southeast U.S. on a century time scale has not changed significantly, according to Groisman et al., 2004. But a 2010 study by Kunkel et al., "Recent increases in U.S. heavy precipitation associated with tropical cyclones", found that the number of Southeast U.S. tropical cyclone heavy precipitation events, defined as 1-in-5-year events, more than doubled between 1994 - 2008, compared to the long-term average from 1895 - 2008.


Figure 4. Time series of the 15-year running average (plotted at the end point of the 15-yr blocks) of a Tropical Cyclone Heavy Precipitation Index (red) and 15-year running average of U.S. landfalling hurricanes (blue). Note that there has been no long-term increase in U.S. landfalling hurricanes, but there has been a sharp increase in extreme rainfall events associated with landfalling tropical cyclones--the kind of rainfall events most likely to cause damaging flooding. Image credit: Kunkel et al. (2010), "Recent increases in U.S. heavy precipitation associated with tropical cyclones", Geophysical Research Letters.

It is essential that we limit coastal development in vulnerable coastal areas, particularly along barrier islands, to reduce some of the astronomical price tags hurricanes are going to be causing in the future. Adoption and enforcement of strict building standards is also a must, as well as more reforms to the government's National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), which subsidizes development in high-risk coastal regions that private insurers won't touch. NFIP is now $25 - 30 billion in the red, thanks to Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Sandy. Reform of NFIP is already underway. In 2012, before Sandy hit, Congress passed the Biggert-Waters Flood Insurance Reform Act, which requires people with NFIP policies to pay large premium increases of about 25% per year over the next five years. Naturally, this move has caused major controversy.

References
Camargo, S., (2013), "Global and regional aspects of tropical cyclone activity in the CMIP5 models," J. Climate.

Emanuel, K.A., 2013, "Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century", PNAS, July 8, 2013, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1301293110

Groisman, Pavel Ya, et al., "Contemporary changes of the hydrological cycle over the contiguous United States: Trends derived from in situ observations," Journal of Hydrometeorology 5.1 (2004): 64-85.

Knutson et al., 2010, "Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change", Nature Geoscience 3, 157 - 163, Published online: 21 February 2010 | doi:10.1038/ngeo779

Knutson et al., 2013, Dynamical Downscaling Projections of 21st Century Atlantic Hurricane Activity: CMIP3 and CMIP5 Model-based Scenarios, Journal of Climate 2013 ; e-View
doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00539.1

Pielke, R.A, et al., 2008, "Normalized Hurricane Damage in the United States: 1900 - 2005," Natural Hazards Review, DOI:10.1061/ASCE1527-6988(2008)9:1(29)

Villarini, G, and G.A. Vecchi, 2012, "Twenty-first-century projections of North Atlantic tropical storms from CMIP5 models," Nature Clim. Change 2:604–607.

Related posts
Global warming and the frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes: model results, my 2010 blog post.

Climate Central's analysis of the new 2013 Kerry Emanuel paper.

Goodbye, Miami: Jeff Goodell's sobering 2013 article in Rolling Stone on the challenges Miami faces due to sea level rise and hurricanes.


What the official climate assessments say about climate change and hurricanes
The 2013 IPCC report gives “low confidence”--a 20% chance--that we have observed a human-caused increase in intense hurricanes in some parts of the world. This is a reduction in odds from the 2007 report, which said that it was more likely than not (greater than 50% chance.) The IPCC likely took note of a landmark 2010 review paper, "Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change", authored by ten top hurricane scientists, which concluded that the U.S. had not seen any long-term increase in landfalling tropical storms and hurricanes, and that "it remains uncertain whether past changes in tropical cyclone activity have exceeded the variability expected from natural causes." The 2013 IPCC report predicts that there is a greater than 50% chance (more likely than not) that we will see a human-caused increase in intense hurricanes by 2100 in some regions; this is also a reduction from the 2007 report, which said this would be likely (66% chance or higher.)

The May 2014 United States National Climate Assessment found that “The intensity, frequency, and duration of North Atlantic hurricanes, as well as the frequency of the strongest (Category 4 and 5) hurricanes, have all increased since the early 1980s. The relative contributions of human and natural causes to these increases are still uncertain. Hurricane-associated storm intensity and rainfall rates are projected to increase as the climate continues to warm.”

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 657. Some1Has2BtheRookie:
Air conditioning was not as common here in 1980 as it is now. I have slept nights where I had a box fan setting in an open window.


What is a box fan? Doesn't show up in my dictionary. And write loud, please, as the ventilator near my working station is running at high speed. (Aaah, where are those thunderstorms which should come in from France to Germany? Spotted an ice shield earlier in the sky to the west, but nothing came out ....)
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Here is the African EUMET satt link; lots of healthy waves starting to form over the Continent. We would not normally expect any of these to develop this early in August although SAL is not an issue for the moment near or around the Cape Verde Islands.

Have to see how they fare after hitting the water; this time of the year, unless you really get some prominent rotation upon splashdown (like we actually saw with Dorian), NHC will normally wait until they clear the CV Islands before busting out the crayons (along with some model support).

Link

We should see a nice cluster of CV storms at some point but these clusters do not normally start until the late-August - early-September time frame. In the meantime, these current waves will continue to moisten the environment.
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Quoting 651. PalmBeachWeather:
With anchovies


What I wouldn't give for just one slice.
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Quoting 659. nrtiwlnvragn:


I've never heard that it was a replacement for the GFS, only a candidate as a future golbal model and a memeber of a multi-model ensemble.





From
I see it uses the same physics from the GFS model, that's pretty neat. Good luck to this model, hopefully it makes it into the global model suite on the NCEP page. We could use some more long range models to help straighten out the bias as well.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8311
Quoting 660. wunderkidcayman:

Yeah


Yes yes your learning






Well, I used to be a troll. Now, I'm a learner and its gonna stay that way for a while. I love the weather, and learning about it. lol
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New BBC weather video about the above normal precipitation in current monsoon:

Monsoon flooding kills at least 100
5 August 2013 Last updated at 16:56 Help

Both Afghanistan and Pakistan have experienced devastating floods during the monsoon period for the past three years. In 2010, Pakistan was hit by the worst monsoon floods in 80 years. Around 1,800 people were killed and 21 million people affected.

Flooding in each of the subsequent two years also left hundreds dead. The latest flooding there has killed at least 100 people and destroyed hundreds of homes.

BBC Weather's Louise Lear has the details and also the forecast which shows the rain moving into India.

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the Antilles wave looks very well organized
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My new hurricane forecast : 7 more storm 3 hurricane 1 major hurricane!! I am expecting below avg year because too much sinking also below avg instabiity!!
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Quoting 639. nigel20:

Hi Gro! I'm sure that Kingston would be happy to get some of that rain. :)


Take what you want
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Quoting 647. mitchelace5:


Ahh....I see

Yeah

Quoting 648. mitchelace5:


By the way, TWO stands for Tropical Weather Outlook, right?

Yes yes your learning

Quoting 650. PalmBeachWeather:
I am here to apolgise.....There are a handful that make my blood pressure go from 120/80 to 160/120 in just a few seconds.... No names to mention...But it is usually from a hypocritical comment....Good evening all...Time for pizza...

I hear yah I currently ordering my pizza it should be here soon

I'm getting pepperoni with pineapples and extra cheese
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12024
Quoting 621. GTstormChaserCaleb:
nrt and levi might know the answer.


I've never heard that it was a replacement for the GFS, only a candidate as a future golbal model and a memeber of a multi-model ensemble.





From
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Quoting 641. GTstormChaserCaleb:
What a crazy storm the "Storm of the Century" was.

3)


Growing up in Tampa, that one had me scared more than any tropical storm I ever experienced(I left in '03, never went thru Frances/Jeanne). I still remember tree limbs that were normally 10-12 feet off the ground knocking against my window from the crazy wind. I also remember thinking it was drizzling the next morning, but the "drizzle" was actually salt water, about 12 miles inland!

Crazy storm.
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Quoting 562. tornadodude:
Okay lol maybe I'm stupid for asking as it has probably been answered, but 10,000 people were killed from a drought in 1980? Really??


I know. It does seem like a very high number. This is a small number compared to Russia's 2010 heat wave "...which has been blamed for 70,000 deaths."

Added:
Air conditioning was not as common here in 1980 as it is now. I have slept nights where I had a box fan setting in an open window.
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656. beell
FIM Global Model
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Quoting 642. washingtonian115:
LOL.Seems Erin wants to become a carbon copy of Erin of 2007?.Talk about originality just like Flossie this year wanted to head to Hawaii like the last one did in 2007.
Nice! That would give Texas some rain that they need.

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654. VR46L
Quoting 622. ncstorm:


again Wikipedia..a place where anyone can modify information..if you google it, you get many offices claiming different figures..the UK met office says 20,000.


As useful as a tool wiki is for reference point it is written by anyone ie I could write a reference there .. but would not call myself an expert in anything to do so, alot of the information is suspect ,to say the least and folks should really be careful in their wiki references , I try not to quote wiki too often JMO
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Quoting 636. ncstorm:


yeah, I understand and I'm not disputing what you pulled..I'm just seeing conflicting information as far as deaths for both heatwaves..thank you though :)


I couldn't count the deads by myself back then (little lol); I myself was half dead in this long lasting heat wave ;). Europe wasn't prepared for something like this happening. It was deadly escpecially for elderly people. Of course, when you are a cynic, you may say: they would have died anyway soon, it just happened a bit earlier. But aren't we all determined to die sooner or later? Since the heat wave of 2003 at least warnings and measures of precaution were improved when a new heat spell is forecast (as it is happening now).
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Quoting mitchelace5:


By the way, TWO stands for Tropical Weather Outlook?

Yeah, that's correct.
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8035
Quoting 650. PalmBeachWeather:
I am here to apologize.....There are a handful that make my blood pressure go from 120/80 to 160/120 in just a few seconds.... No names to mention...But it is usually from a hypocritical comment....Good evening all...Time for pizza...
With anchovies
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5864
I am here to apologize.....There are a handful that make my blood pressure go from 120/80 to 160/120 in just a few seconds.... No names to mention...But it is usually from a hypocritical comment....Good evening all...Time for pizza...
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5864
Quoting 632. hurricanes2018:
look at this crazy jet steam here.
I need that cold pool to be permanent during the fall/winter with lots of moisture fed in.Will be a happy person if that happens.
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Quoting 643. wunderkidcayman:

Yes but that would change as the TWO changes so increases may be made during any of the 4 TWOs during the day and/or change as the days come and go


By the way, TWO stands for Tropical Weather Outlook, right?
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Quoting 643. wunderkidcayman:

Yes but that would change as the TWO changes so increases may be made during any of the 4 TWOs during the day and/or change as the days come and go


Ahh....I see
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I was in Europe at the height of the 2003 heat wave. It was hotter than any could recall. One day in London they broke the all-time record which went back almost a millenia. I'm still amazed I survived.
.
It is my understanding that many, as in more than 50% of the deaths did not occur as a strict result of the heat. The more direct cause was the fact that the doctors left town for their annual trip to the Riviera, especially in Paris, leaving hospitals woefully understaffed.
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Quoting 630. nrtiwlnvragn:


Dr. Masters left out the heatwave part of the descriptor. NCDC Page that Dr. Masters referenced.

"Central and eastern U.S. drought/heat wave caused damage to agriculture and other related industries. Excess mortality due to heat stress included in death estimate."
Hey NRT is the FIM models still supposed to replace the GFS model or has that plan been scrubbed?
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8311
644. beell
Quoting 593. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Between 50-55w and 10-15N cyclonic turning can be seen with that disturbance. I am trying to figure out if that is our catalyst for development in the Western Caribbean and GOM?



FIM-8 really likes it:





A disturbance currently at or near 52W traveling west at 15 knots would take approximately 120 hrs to reach 82W longitude (shown in the 222 hr model frame you posted). So I don't think it's this one.
(using a rough figure of 60 nm per degree of longitude)
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Quoting 635. mitchelace5:


If it is given a 20% for five days, isn't it also possible for the formation chances to increase during that 5-day time frame?

Yes but that would change as the TWO changes so increases may be made during any of the 4 TWOs during the day and/or change as the days come and go
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12024
LOL.Seems Erin wants to become a carbon copy of Erin of 2007?.Talk about originality just like Flossie this year wanted to head to Hawaii like the last one did in 2007.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16975
What a crazy storm the "Storm of the Century" was.

3) For the first time, every major airport on the east coast was
closed at one time or another by the storm. The Asheville, NC airport
was closed for 3 days. Snowfall rates of 2-3 inches per hour were common
during the height of the storm. Generally, New York's Catskill Mountains
along with most of the central and southern Appalachians received at
least 2 feet of snow. In areas to the east, wind-driven sleet occurred
in some areas, with central New Jersey reporting 2.5 inches of sleet on
top of 12 inches of snow--somewhat of an "ice-cream sandwich" affect.
4) Hundreds of roof collapses occurred due to the weight of the
heavy wet snow. Over 3 million customers were without electrical
power at one time due to fallen trees and high winds.
5) At least 18 homes fell into the sea on Long Island due to the
pounding surf. About 200 homes along North Carolina's Outer
Banks were damaged and may be uninhabitable. Over 160 people were
rescued at sea by the Coast Guard in the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic.
At least 1 freighter sank in the Gulf of Mexico.

6) Florida was struck by an estimated 15 tornadoes, and 44 deaths in
Florida were attributed either to the tornadoes or other severe weather.
A 12-foot storm surge occurred in Taylor County, FL resulting in at least
7 deaths. Also, up to 6 inches of snow fell in the Florida panhandle.
7) 3 storm-related deaths were reported in Quebec and 1 in Ontario.
About 110 miles south of Cape Sable Island, Nova Scotia, a 177-meter ship
sank in heavy seas, with all 33 of its crew lost at sea. 65-foot waves
were reported in the area. Also, a wind gust of 131 MPH occurred at Grand
Etang, Nova Scotia. Some parts of northern New Brunswick experienced
temperature drops of 45 degrees Fahrenheit in 18 hours. 3 deaths occurred
in Cuba (Havana was blacked out), and a tornado left 5000 people homeless
in Reynosa, Mexico (near Texas border).

Link
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Quoting 630. nrtiwlnvragn:


Dr. Masters left out the heatwave part of the descriptor. NCDC Page that Dr. Masters referenced.

"Central and eastern U.S. drought/heat wave caused damage to agriculture and other related industries. Excess mortality due to heat stress included in death estimate."


Thank you for the clarification. That makes sense.
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Quoting Grothar:


I'm there so often, they have a reserved parking with my name on it at the Emergency Room.



Since Dorian left, we haven't had a break.


Hi Gro! I'm sure that Kingston would be happy to get some of that rain. :)
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8035
Another heat wave expected to hit Shanghai
Shanghai Daily, August 5, 2013

Another heat wave is expected to hit Shanghai this week, with temperatures above 39 degrees Celsius from tomorrow to Thursday, according to forecasters.

A high of 37.2 degrees yesterday marked this summer's 30th high temperature day — days with temperatures over 35 degrees.

Today's maximum temperature is forecast to be 37 degrees and there may be showers or thunderstorms in the afternoon.

Earlier, the Shanghai Meteorological Bureau had predicted that there would be 27 high temperatures days this summer but it has now revised that to 40.

Kong Chunyan, a chief service officer at the bureau, said that according to Xujiahui observatory data since 2001 August should have an average of two to three high temperature days but this year there are expected to be more than 10 before the month is over. ...
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Quoting 607. Naga5000:


That's the hospital I was born in. ;)


Interesting
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Quoting 629. barbamz:


It's backed up by a study:
Abstract
Daily numbers of deaths at a regional level were collected in 16 European countries. Summer mortality was analyzed for the reference period 1998–2002 and for 2003. More than 70,000 additional deaths occurred in Europe during the summer 2003. Major distortions occurred in the age distribution of the deaths, but no harvesting effect was observed in the months following August 2003. Global warming constitutes a new health threat in an aged Europe that may be difficult to detect at the country level, depending on its size. Centralizing the count of daily deaths on an operational geographical scale constitutes a priority for Public Health in Europe. To cite this article: J.-M. Robine et al., C. R. Biologies 331 (2008).


yeah, I understand and I'm not disputing what you pulled..I'm just seeing conflicting information as far as deaths for both heatwaves..thank you though :)
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Quoting 631. wunderkidcayman:

No I disagree it should be given 0 within 48hrs and about a 20 within 5 days


If it is given a 20% for five days, isn't it also possible for the formation chances to increase or fall during that 5-day time frame?
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Quoting 607. Naga5000:


That's the hospital I was born in. ;)


I'm there so often, they have a reserved parking with my name on it at the Emergency Room.



Since Dorian left, we haven't had a break.

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Quoting 614. barbamz:


Wiki about European heat wave 2003 (and yes! it was very very bad:)

The 2003 European heat wave was the hottest summer on record in Europe since at least 1540.[1] France was hit especially hard. The heat wave led to health crises in several countries and combined with drought to create a crop shortfall in parts of Southern Europe. Peer reviewed analysis places the European death toll at 70,000.[


From Wiki: (2010 Russian heatwave and wildfires)

A combination of the smoke from the fires, producing heavy smog blanketing large urban regions and the record-breaking heat wave put stress on the Russian healthcare system. Munich Re estimated 56,000 people in all died from the effects of the smog and heat wave. The 2010 wildfires were the worst on record to that time. However in 2012 new wildfires broke out in Russia which proved even more extensive and damaging.
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look at this crazy jet steam here.
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 17 Comments: 33824
Quoting 624. mitchelace5:


Don't think so. The convection is scattered and disorganized.

No I disagree it should be given 0 within 48hrs and about a 20 within 5 days
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Quoting 608. tornadodude:



Yeah that's part of my confusion.. a heatwave can kill a lot of people, definitely, but I don't get how you track how many people died from a drought..


Dr. Masters left out the heatwave part of the descriptor. NCDC Page that Dr. Masters referenced.

"Central and eastern U.S. drought/heat wave caused damage to agriculture and other related industries. Excess mortality due to heat stress included in death estimate."
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Quoting 622. ncstorm:


again Wikipedia..a place where anyone can modify information..if you google it, you get many offices claiming different figures..the UK met office says 20,000.


It's backed up by a study:
Abstract
Daily numbers of deaths at a regional level were collected in 16 European countries. Summer mortality was analyzed for the reference period 1998–2002 and for 2003. More than 70,000 additional deaths occurred in Europe during the summer 2003. Major distortions occurred in the age distribution of the deaths, but no harvesting effect was observed in the months following August 2003. Global warming constitutes a new health threat in an aged Europe that may be difficult to detect at the country level, depending on its size. Centralizing the count of daily deaths on an operational geographical scale constitutes a priority for Public Health in Europe. To cite this article: J.-M. Robine et al., C. R. Biologies 331 (2008).
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Quoting 620. weatherlover94:
Does anybody think the wave near the Antilles will get a yellow circle at 8:00 ?

Maybe with the probs of 0%/20%. 0% in 48hrs and 20% in 5 days.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12024
Quoting ncstorm:


Hey Nigel, I googled "how many people died during the 2003 European heatwave" and I got many conflicting answers..which one is correct?

I think that it was somewhere close to 70 000 people. Barbamz may be able to provide us with a more accurate figure.
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8035
626. yoboi
Quoting 608. tornadodude:



Yeah that's part of my confusion.. a heatwave can kill a lot of people, definitely, but I don't get how you track how many people died from a drought..



I don't know how a lack of moisture in the ground can kill you......
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Thank Global Warming for the cool summer in the mid west.

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Quoting 620. weatherlover94:
Does anybody think the wave near the Antilles will get a yellow circle at 8:00 ?


Don't think so. The convection is scattered and disorganized.
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Top 10 heat wave related deaths (Wiki)


1.
70,000
2003 European heat wave


2.

56,000
2010 Russian heat wave


3.

5,000–10,000
1988 United States heat wave


4.

1,700-5,000
1980 United States heat wave


5.
1,718
2010 Japanese heat wave


6.

1,500
2003 Southern India heat wave


7.

946
1955 Los Angeles heat wave
United States


8.
891
1972 New York City heat wave


9.

739
1995 Chicago heat wave
United States


10.

475 dea
1900 Argentina heat wave

Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6878
Quoting 614. barbamz:


Wiki about European heat wave 2003 (and yes! it was very very bad:)

The 2003 European heat wave was the hottest summer on record in Europe since at least 1540.[1] France was hit especially hard. The heat wave led to health crises in several countries and combined with drought to create a crop shortfall in parts of Southern Europe. Peer reviewed analysis places the European death toll at 70,000.[


again Wikipedia..a place where anyone can modify information..if you google it, you get many offices claiming different figures..the UK met office says 20,000.
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Quoting 616. ncstorm:


Wasnt it said on here last year or the year before that the FIM was supposed to replace the GFS? Why was it canned?
nrt and levi might know the answer.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8311
Does anybody think the wave near the Antilles will get a yellow circle at 8:00 ?
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Quoting 582. stormpetrol:


Hot as henges of hell as the old folks would say, sorry for anyone without A/C or a good fan. Really stifling hot!

Well I did say that

Quoting 590. nigel20:

Yeah, 35C was recorded in Kingston on Saturday...It felt like 42C. Sunday was extremely hot as well. I'm really hoping for some rain soon.

Well they don't call it SUNday for no good reason

Quoting 593. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Between 50-55w and 10-15N cyclonic turning can be seen with that disturbance. I am trying to figure out if that is our catalyst for development in the Western Caribbean and GOM?



FIM-8 really likes it:




We really need to watch out for it this could be one of those sneeky ones that no one expects

Quoting 597. nigel20:

Hi tornadodude! I think that about 70 000 people were killed in the 2003 European heatwave if I'm not mistaken.


Euro heatwave are not that hot maybe between 85 F and 100 F euros can't Handle the heat

I should not complain I'm part Scottish and I hate h heat
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12024

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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