Hurricanes and Climate Change: Huge Dangers, Huge Unknowns

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:57 AM GMT on August 05, 2013

Share this Blog
74
+

Hurricane Sandy's enormous $65 billion price tag put that great storm in third place for the most expensive weather-related disaster in U.S. (and world) history, and six of the ten most expensive U.S. weather-related disasters since 1980 have been hurricanes. Thus, how the strongest hurricanes may be affected due a changing climate is a topic of critical concern. Since hurricanes are heat engines that extract heat energy from the oceans to power themselves, hurricane scientists are confident that the very strongest storms will get stronger by the end of the century, when Earth's land and ocean temperatures are expected to warm 2 - 3°C, to levels unmatched since the Eemian Era, 115,000 years ago. Computer modeling work consistently indicates that greenhouse warming will cause the globally averaged intensity of tropical cyclones to shift towards stronger storms, with intensity increases of 2–11% by 2100. But hurricanes are fussy creations, and are sensitive to wind shear and dry air. Although the strongest storms should get stronger when "perfect storm" conditions are present, these "perfect storm" conditions may become less frequent in the future, due to the presence of higher wind shear, altered atmospheric circulation patterns, or more dry air at mid levels of the atmosphere. Indeed, the climate models used to formulate the 2007 IPCC report suggested that we might see the strongest hurricanes getting stronger, but a decrease in the total number of hurricanes in the Atlantic (and worldwide) later this century. However, the latest set of models used to formulate the 2013 IPCC report left open the possibility that we might see in increase in the total number of hurricanes, and and increase in their intensity. Given the conflicting model results, we really don't know how global warming will affect the number of hurricanes and their intensity, but we run the risk of making one of humanity's greatest scourges worse.


Figure 1. The list of most expensive U.S. weather-related disasters since 1980 is dominated by hurricanes.

Climate models and hurricane frequency
The database we have on historical hurricanes does not extend far enough into the past and is not of high enough quality to make many judgements on how human-caused climate change may be affecting these great storms. A landmark 2010 review paper, "Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change", authored by ten top hurricane scientists concluded that the U.S. has not seen any long-term increase in landfalling tropical storms and hurricanes, and that "it remains uncertain whether past changes in tropical cyclone activity have exceeded the variability expected from natural causes" (tropical cyclone is the generic term which encompasses tropical depressions, tropical storms, hurricanes, and typhoons.) Based in part on modeling studies using climate models run for the 2007 IPCC report, the scientists concluded that "it is likely that global mean tropical cyclone frequency will either decrease or remain unchanged owing to greenhouse warming." For example, one of the modeling studies the review paper quoted, Knutson et al. (2008), "Simulated reduction in Atlantic hurricane frequency under twenty-first-century warming conditions", projected a decrease in Atlantic tropical storms by 27% and hurricanes by 18% by the end of the century. An important reason that their model predicted these decreases was due to a predicted increase in wind shear. As I explain in my wind shear tutorial, a large change of wind speed with height over a hurricane creates a shearing force that tends to tear the storm apart. The amount of wind shear is critical in determining whether a hurricane can form or survive.

But a July 2013 study by MIT's Dr. Kerry Emanuel, "Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century", challenged this result. Dr. Emanuel argued that tropical cyclones are likely to become both stronger and more frequent as the climate continues to warm. This increase is most likely to occur in Western North Pacific, with smaller increases in the Atlantic. Dr. Emanuel took output from six newer higher-resolution climate models used to formulate the 2013 IPCC report, and used the output to drive a high-resolution hurricane model. The simulations found that the global frequency of tropical cyclones would increase by 11% to 40% by 2100, with intensity increases as well. The combined effects produced a global increase in Category 3 and stronger hurricanes of 40%. The behavior of these strongest hurricanes is critical, since they do most of the damage we observe. Over the past century, Category 3 - 5 hurricanes accounted for 85% of US hurricane damage, despite representing only 24% of U.S. landfalling storms. Category 4 and 5 hurricanes made up only 6% of all U.S. landfalls, but accounted for 48% of all U.S. damage (if normalized to account for increases in U.S. population and wealth, see Pielke et al., 2008.)


Figure 2. Projected changes in tropical cyclone track density during the 2006-2100 period compared to the 1950-2005 period, using output from six climate models included in the 2013 IPCC report. The global frequency of tropical cyclones is predicted to increase by 11% to 40%, with the largest changes occurring in the Northwest Pacific off the coast of Japan. Smaller increases are predicted for the Atlantic and near Australia. Image credit: Kerry Emanuel, "Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century", Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, July 8, 2013, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1301293110.

However, a study by Knutson et al. (2013), using the same latest-generation climate models as used by Emanuel (2013), but using the output from the models to drive a different high-resolution hurricane model, found a 20% decrease in Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes by 2100. Two other 2013 studies by Villarini et al. and Camargo, also using output from the 2013 IPCC models, found essentially no change in Atlantic tropical cyclones. The reason for the differences, lies, in part, with how much global warming is assumed in the studies. Dr. Emanuel's study, which found an increase in tropical cyclone activity, assumed a worst-case warming situation (RCP 8.5), following the "business as usual" emissions path humanity is currently on. The Knutson et al. study, which found a decrease of 20% in Atlantic tropical cyclones, used a scenario (RCP 4.5) where it was assumed humans will wise up and cause about half of the worst-case greenhouse warming. The study found found "marginally significant" increases in Atlantic Category 4 and 5 hurricanes of 39% - 45% by 2100. These dramatically different results give credence to Dr. Emanuel statement at the end of his paper, "the response of tropical cyclones to projected climate change will remain uncertain for some time to come." The 2013 IPCC report also emphasized the high amount of uncertainty in how climate change might affect hurricanes, stating that there was "low confidence" that we have observed any increases in intense tropical cyclones due to human causes. However, since the 1970s, it is virtually certain (99 - 100% chance) that the frequency and intensity of hurricanes and tropical storms in the North Atlantic has increased, and there is medium confidence that a reduction in small air pollution particles (aerosols) over the North Atlantic caused part of this effect. The report's forecast for the future stated that it is "more likely than not" (50 - 100% chance) that human-caused climate change will cause a substantial increase in intense tropical cyclones in some ocean basins by 2100, with the Western North Pacific and Atlantic being at particular risk. Also, there will likely (66 - 100% chance) be an increase in both global mean tropical cyclone maximum wind speed and rain rates by 2100, and more likely than not (50 - 100% chance) that the increase in the most intense tropical cyclones will be larger than 10% in some basins.


Figure 3. Expected change in Atlantic Category 4 and 5 hurricanes per decade expected by the year 2100, according to Knutson et al. (2013), "Dynamical Downscaling Projections of 21st Century Atlantic Hurricane Activity: CMIP3 and CMIP5 Model-based Scenarios." This research used the latest generation of climate models from the 2013 IPCC report, and found "marginally significant" increases in Atlantic Category 4 and 5 hurricanes of 39% - 45% by 2100.

Commentary
Hurricane damages are currently doubling every ten years without the effect of climate change, according to Pielke et al., 2008. This is primarily due to the increasing population along the coast and increased wealth of the population. The authors theorize that the Great Miami Hurricane of 1926, a Category 4 monster that made a direct hit on Miami Beach, would have caused about $150 billion in damage had it hit in 2005. Thus, by 2015, the same hurricane would do $300 billion in damage, and $600 billion by 2025. This is without considering the impact that accelerating sea level rise will have on storm surge damages. Global sea level rise over the past decade has been about double what it was in the 20th century, and the rate of sea level rise is expected to increase further in the coming decades. Storm surge does the majority of damage in major hurricanes, and storm surges riding on top of higher sea levels are going to do a lot more damage in the coming decades. If we toss in the (controversial) increases in Category 3 and stronger storms like Dr. Emanuel suggests may occur, the hurricane damage math gets very impressive. We can also add onto that the relatively non-controversial increase in tropical cyclone rainfall of 20% expected by 2100, which will sharply increase damages due to fresh water river flooding. It is controversial whether or not we are already be seeing an increase in heavy precipitation events associated with tropical cyclones in the U.S., though. The total number of daily rainfall events exceeding 2" associated with tropical cyclones in the Southeast U.S. on a century time scale has not changed significantly, according to Groisman et al., 2004. But a 2010 study by Kunkel et al., "Recent increases in U.S. heavy precipitation associated with tropical cyclones", found that the number of Southeast U.S. tropical cyclone heavy precipitation events, defined as 1-in-5-year events, more than doubled between 1994 - 2008, compared to the long-term average from 1895 - 2008.


Figure 4. Time series of the 15-year running average (plotted at the end point of the 15-yr blocks) of a Tropical Cyclone Heavy Precipitation Index (red) and 15-year running average of U.S. landfalling hurricanes (blue). Note that there has been no long-term increase in U.S. landfalling hurricanes, but there has been a sharp increase in extreme rainfall events associated with landfalling tropical cyclones--the kind of rainfall events most likely to cause damaging flooding. Image credit: Kunkel et al. (2010), "Recent increases in U.S. heavy precipitation associated with tropical cyclones", Geophysical Research Letters.

It is essential that we limit coastal development in vulnerable coastal areas, particularly along barrier islands, to reduce some of the astronomical price tags hurricanes are going to be causing in the future. Adoption and enforcement of strict building standards is also a must, as well as more reforms to the government's National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), which subsidizes development in high-risk coastal regions that private insurers won't touch. NFIP is now $25 - 30 billion in the red, thanks to Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Sandy. Reform of NFIP is already underway. In 2012, before Sandy hit, Congress passed the Biggert-Waters Flood Insurance Reform Act, which requires people with NFIP policies to pay large premium increases of about 25% per year over the next five years. Naturally, this move has caused major controversy.

References
Camargo, S., (2013), "Global and regional aspects of tropical cyclone activity in the CMIP5 models," J. Climate.

Emanuel, K.A., 2013, "Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century", PNAS, July 8, 2013, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1301293110

Groisman, Pavel Ya, et al., "Contemporary changes of the hydrological cycle over the contiguous United States: Trends derived from in situ observations," Journal of Hydrometeorology 5.1 (2004): 64-85.

Knutson et al., 2010, "Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change", Nature Geoscience 3, 157 - 163, Published online: 21 February 2010 | doi:10.1038/ngeo779

Knutson et al., 2013, Dynamical Downscaling Projections of 21st Century Atlantic Hurricane Activity: CMIP3 and CMIP5 Model-based Scenarios, Journal of Climate 2013 ; e-View
doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00539.1

Pielke, R.A, et al., 2008, "Normalized Hurricane Damage in the United States: 1900 - 2005," Natural Hazards Review, DOI:10.1061/ASCE1527-6988(2008)9:1(29)

Villarini, G, and G.A. Vecchi, 2012, "Twenty-first-century projections of North Atlantic tropical storms from CMIP5 models," Nature Clim. Change 2:604–607.

Related posts
Global warming and the frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes: model results, my 2010 blog post.

Climate Central's analysis of the new 2013 Kerry Emanuel paper.

Goodbye, Miami: Jeff Goodell's sobering 2013 article in Rolling Stone on the challenges Miami faces due to sea level rise and hurricanes.


What the official climate assessments say about climate change and hurricanes
The 2013 IPCC report gives “low confidence”--a 20% chance--that we have observed a human-caused increase in intense hurricanes in some parts of the world. This is a reduction in odds from the 2007 report, which said that it was more likely than not (greater than 50% chance.) The IPCC likely took note of a landmark 2010 review paper, "Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change", authored by ten top hurricane scientists, which concluded that the U.S. had not seen any long-term increase in landfalling tropical storms and hurricanes, and that "it remains uncertain whether past changes in tropical cyclone activity have exceeded the variability expected from natural causes." The 2013 IPCC report predicts that there is a greater than 50% chance (more likely than not) that we will see a human-caused increase in intense hurricanes by 2100 in some regions; this is also a reduction from the 2007 report, which said this would be likely (66% chance or higher.)

The May 2014 United States National Climate Assessment found that “The intensity, frequency, and duration of North Atlantic hurricanes, as well as the frequency of the strongest (Category 4 and 5) hurricanes, have all increased since the early 1980s. The relative contributions of human and natural causes to these increases are still uncertain. Hurricane-associated storm intensity and rainfall rates are projected to increase as the climate continues to warm.”

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 719 - 669

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52Blog Index

I don't think there will be any mention of the wave at 8:00 but we will see.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 696. Hurricane1956:
Looking at the radar, a lot of very stormy!!! bad weather coming down North to South,just breaking the Dade-Broward line,moving South!!,any reports from Broward County about this in land red blob?.


It is getting dark. Heavy rain over the lake, just what it needs.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 707. Grothar:


That is the one I've been posting for a couple days. It weakened some yesterday. I don't think it would take 10 days to get to the Islands, though. The way it is gaining latitude, I still think it will move through the middle islands.



if all that dry air wasn't there this would probably take off
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
No big storms forming in the next month too!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Peak sinking mojo!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 597. nigel20:

Hi tornadodude! I think that about 70 000 people were killed in the 2003 European heatwave if I'm not mistaken.


You are right, see: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/ S1631069107003770
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 706. PalmBeachWeather:
Gro.........Are you my dad(RIP) ? He made me laugh like you do..He passed March 1,1993


Really sorry to hear about your Dad. But I don't think so. However, I did travel quite a bit in my younger days. :)

I am actually a very quiet, serious man. For some reason I come on here and well, you know the rest.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Satellite pic of the day on Earth Observatory (click to read more)


August 5


July 28

The clouds cleared on August 5, 2013, when the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Aqua satellite acquired the top image. The false color image is made of near infrared, shortwave infrared, and red light. In this type of image, water is black or dark blue. Sediment laden water or muddy ground is pale blue. Clouds are turquoise, plant-covered land is green, and bare earth is tan-pink.

The lower image, taken on July 28, shows conditions before the most recent monsoon. The contrast reveals extensive flooding on the Kurram and Tochi River systems, which pour a cloud of sediment into the Indus River. Widespread floods also color the land east of the Indus River. Though these areas were among many experiencing flooding, the floods were not as severe as the destructive 2010 floods.


Foreboding of the summit of the hurricane season in the US?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The rising mojo is setting up over the wpac and it is not working it's way into the atlantic at all!! New mojo foroecast says expect a quite and below avg peak of the season!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 680. ncstorm:
well if you have any doubt, then you might be looking at a huge serving of crow..The GFS runs has been trending pretty good in showing a 1920 locomotive pulling out of the station

12z GFS Africa..

I see possible Fernand,Gabrielle and Humberto.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I will be giving people these (small bag on the left you see) if they behave tonight.Other flavors are available but not shown..
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17471
Quoting 609. ncstorm:


Hey Nigel, I googled "how many people died during the 2003 European heatwave" and I got many conflicting answers..which one is correct?
Quoting 609. ncstorm:


Hey Nigel, I googled "how many people died during the 2003 European heatwave" and I got many conflicting answers..which one is correct?
I believe 70,000 may be a good answer.heat wave in Russia in 2010 or 2011 don`t remember which killed at least 10,000.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 697. weatherlover94:


The one just west of the 50 W line


That is the one I've been posting for a couple days. It weakened some yesterday. I don't think it would take 10 days to get to the Islands, though. The way it is gaining latitude, I still think it will move through the middle islands.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 702. Grothar:


Another piece of the puzzle. :)
Gro.........Are you my dad(RIP) ? He made me laugh like you do..He passed March 1,1993
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5926
this will help in the drought

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
704. vis0
shrt cmnt: Try studying how nature uses cold core storms to balance artificial pollutions that build up within a complex planet, more than warm core storms.

(if moderators wish to remove this, as 4 other posts cause i blah blah blah of things i state i discovered at least leave the shrt cmmnt, thank you)

Looong coment: What if NATURE on earth cools itself via more cold core storms.

Stars do that, and humans do that.
Human's with high fevers, read how they're cooled off (some might know this already) as to stars, i think its not fuly understood, yet wrote some pgs but why waste the reader's time w/ my crazy theories.

Cold core storms maintain the oceans cooler as they form over the polar regions thus the excess heat created artificially can be used up by these storms over a larger area, a more efficient way of cooling.

Also more ice can be melted to cool the ocean floors, as cooling is down from outward in, the melted ice then will be replaced after the ocean sea level reaches its balanced point
(that is done be an interaction with the Sun cycle & Sun phase cycles.
What i state are sun cycles are from 9 to 11.75 Earth yrs in time (modern science states 11 yrs), sun phases i state are from ~35 to ~44 yrs (modern science states nothing, not known or understood yet. 
The word "In" being sealevel while "outward" being the highest atmospheres to lowest oceans levels. (this comes from a 1970s theory i sent to several over the years including in the 1990s Jim Cantore (WxCh) as how he mentioned ocean conveyor belt as to the GoMx stream i wrote study how those cooler waters sink. Received no response, as i'm tiold by some Wxu member, what do ya expect from such crazy writing, i say some of the crazy writings of past years are today's respected knowledge, Its up to those that are well educated to take the time and separate those crazy ideas into the usable ideas, the stored ideas & the file into the green cylindrical container ideas,peace


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
703. JLPR2
Lets do a CIMMS pictures look. ha! XD

Wind shear is looking favorable in most of the MDR except the Caribbean where the TUTT refuses to leave.



The convergence of the TW/ITCZ disturbance is looking interesting, circular instead of the traditional linear shape of the ITCZ induced convergence, it might be generating that on its own.



But even though the disturbance has reached the 700mb level, there is nothing farther up, around the 500mb level, so it is still a very shallow and weak spin.



To finish the area above it is very dry, especially in the mid-levels, if it started spinning it would pull in some of that and kill itself.



Also, those are two healthy looking blobs in Africa, especially the one farther inland.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 699. PalmBeachWeather:
I remember when I was a little girl..We had a box fan....I sat in front of the fan talking..hhh eee lll ooo, mmm nnn aaa mmm eee iii sss MMM eee lll iii sss sss aaa


Another piece of the puzzle. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ncstorm:
well if you have any doubt, then you might be looking at a huge serving of crow..The GFS runs has been trending pretty good in showing a 1920 locomotive pulling out of the station

12z GFS Africa..


Wow! "The train is coming down" :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Give us this day our daily storm! Another wild one here in Fl. Heartland! Lightning struck local business "Campers Corral" in Avon Park a few days ago and burned it to the ground. An X-Dorian event.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I remember when I was a little girl..We had a box fan....I sat in front of the fan talking..hhh eee lll ooo, mmm nnn aaa mmm eee iii sss MMM eee lll iii sss sss aaa
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5926
Gro....I love the place, Parking sucks....I usually have to park in the garage...Not cheap...
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5926
Quoting 674. Grothar:


Which one?




The one just west of the 50 W line
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Looking at the radar, a lot of very stormy!!! bad weather coming down North to South,just breaking the Dade-Broward line,moving South!!,any reports from Broward County about this in land red blob?.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 693. Some1Has2BtheRookie:


A box fan



first autotune device..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 686. MrMixon:




A box fan! (that's as loud as they'll let me write here in the office... it disturbs the people in the neighboring offices when I type in all caps).


Ahh, thanks. Resembles mine, though mine is roundish and fixed on a tripod :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 669. barbamz:


What is a box fan? Doesn't show up in my dictionary. And write loud, please, as the ventilator near my working station is running at high speed. (Aaah, where are those thunderstorms which should come in from France to Germany? Spotted an ice shield earlier in the sky to the west, but nothing came out ....)


A box fan

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 670. PalmBeachWeather:
Gro.......I'm sure there will be leftovers.You are quite welcome....I was down in your area Saturday... Had rock shrimp and oysters at "Whale's Rib"


Nice place. Good raw bar.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 688. nrtiwlnvragn:


Choose which parameter and for how long.
Link


You are probably more interested in tropical cyclone genesis and track. I don't know a webpage that has that data.


thanks NRT!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Certainly shows that activity starts peaking towards month's end.

August 1st-10th origins





August 11th-20th origins





August 21st-31st origins



Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
Quoting 683. moonlightcowboy:
August storm origins



Ehhm, everywhere?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 672. ncstorm:
Which FIM model is the most accurate?


Choose which parameter and for how long.
Link


You are probably more interested in tropical cyclone genesis and track. I don't know a webpage that has that data.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
August historical prevailing average for tracks

Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
Quoting 669. barbamz:


What is a box fan? Doesn't show up in my dictionary. And write loud, please, as the ventilator near my working station is running at high speed. (Aaah, where are those thunderstorms which should come in from France to Germany? Spotted an ice shield earlier in the sky to the west, but nothing came out ....)




A box fan! (that's as loud as they'll let me write here in the office... it disturbs the people in the neighboring offices when I type in all caps).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 677. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
no pizza for you

or t bones with bake potato either
I have changed my priorities as I have grown older...#1 and #2 are now #3 and #4 ...#1 one is now food....#2 is.......Geeeez, forget
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5926
Quoting 667. Grothar:


What I wouldn't give for just one slice.


You can still look. There is no harm in that.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
August storm origins

Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
Quoting 679. HuracanKY:
The wave some of you are pointing out which is approaching the Lesser Antilles has a strengthening vorticity signature and obvious cyclonic turning in the low level cloud field. But it will have difficulty generating and sustaining any deep convection for now, due to dry air/ SAL.



Nice wave feature.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 674. Grothar:


Which one?




I think he was referring to that ball of storms near 10N and 45W
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
well if you have any doubt, then you might be looking at a huge serving of crow..The GFS runs has been trending pretty good in showing a 1920 locomotive pulling out of the station

12z GFS Africa..

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The wave some of you are pointing out which is approaching the Lesser Antilles has a strengthening vorticity signature and obvious cyclonic turning in the low level cloud field. But it will have difficulty generating and sustaining any deep convection for now, due to dry air/ SAL.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 668. weathermanwannabe:
Here is the African EUMET satt link; lots of healthy waves starting to form over the Continent. We would not normally expect any of these to develop this early in August although SAL is not an issue for the moment near or around the Cape Verde Islands.

Have to see how they fare after hitting the water; this time of the year, unless you really get some prominent rotation upon splashdown (like we actually saw with Dorian), NHC will normally wait until they clear the CV Islands before busting out the crayons (along with some model support).

Link

We should see a nice cluster of CV storms at some point but these clusters do not normally start until the late-August - early-September time frame. In the meantime, these current waves will continue to moisten the environment.


Do they also release heat to weaken any strong trade winds around them?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 667. Grothar:


What I wouldn't give for just one slice.
no pizza for you

or t bones with bake potato either
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


Take what you want

Lol! I wish I could. Two major reservoirs in Kingston are below 60% of capacity. :(
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Since the MJO is smack dab in the central of the circle. Shouldn't there be no convection along the ITCZ?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 663. weatherlover94:
the Antilles wave looks very well organized


Which one?


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Ahem...

For sake of clarity, and without additional interpretation, here's the original WMO press release, "2001-2010, A Decade of Climate Extremes"... including temp charts and statement on impacts demonstrates that significant increases in vulnerabilities are linked with rising population -

"Impacts: During the decade 2001-2010, more than 370,000 people died as a result of extreme weather and climate conditions, including heat waves, cold spells, drought, storms and floods, according to the data provided by the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED). This was 20% higher than 1991-2000. This increase is due mainly to the 2003 heat wave in Europe and the 2010 in Russia which contributed to an increase of more than 2000% in the global death toll from heat waves (from less than 6000 in 1991-2000 to 136 000 in 2001-2010).

On the other hand, there was a 16% decline in deaths due to storms and 43% decline in deaths from floods, thanks mainly to better early warning systems and increased preparedness and despite an increase in populations in disaster-prone areas.

According to the 2011 Global Assessment Report, the average population exposed to flooding every year increased by 114% globally between 1970 and 2010, a period in which the world%u2019s population increased by 87% from 3.7 billion to 6.9 billion. The number of people exposed to severe storms almost tripled in cyclone-prone areas, increasing by 192%, in the same period.

Much research is being conducted into whether it is possible to attribute individual extreme events to climate change rather than natural variability. Scientists increasingly conclude that the likelihood of an event such as the 2003 European heat wave was probably substantially increased by rising global temperatures. It is therefore important to develop this research to strengthen climate science and to use it to improve climate services to help society adapt to climate change."


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Which FIM model is the most accurate?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 665. mitchelace5:


Well, I used to be a troll. Now, I'm a learner and its gonna stay that way. I love the weather, and learning about it. lol


We always accept new Trainees ...as long as they are willing to learn and not drag us all down and aggravate us lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 667. Grothar:


What I wouldn't give for just one slice.
Gro.......I'm sure there will be leftovers.You are quite welcome....I was down in your area Saturday... Had rock shrimp and oysters at "Whale's Rib"
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5926
Quoting 657. Some1Has2BtheRookie:
Air conditioning was not as common here in 1980 as it is now. I have slept nights where I had a box fan setting in an open window.


What is a box fan? Doesn't show up in my dictionary. And write loud, please, as the ventilator near my working station is running at high speed. (Aaah, where are those thunderstorms which should come in from France to Germany? Spotted an ice shield earlier in the sky to the west, but nothing came out ....)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 719 - 669

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
48 °F
Overcast