Hurricanes and Climate Change: Huge Dangers, Huge Unknowns

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:57 AM GMT on August 05, 2013

Share this Blog
74
+

Hurricane Sandy's enormous $65 billion price tag put that great storm in third place for the most expensive weather-related disaster in U.S. (and world) history, and six of the ten most expensive U.S. weather-related disasters since 1980 have been hurricanes. Thus, how the strongest hurricanes may be affected due a changing climate is a topic of critical concern. Since hurricanes are heat engines that extract heat energy from the oceans to power themselves, hurricane scientists are confident that the very strongest storms will get stronger by the end of the century, when Earth's land and ocean temperatures are expected to warm 2 - 3°C, to levels unmatched since the Eemian Era, 115,000 years ago. Computer modeling work consistently indicates that greenhouse warming will cause the globally averaged intensity of tropical cyclones to shift towards stronger storms, with intensity increases of 2–11% by 2100. But hurricanes are fussy creations, and are sensitive to wind shear and dry air. Although the strongest storms should get stronger when "perfect storm" conditions are present, these "perfect storm" conditions may become less frequent in the future, due to the presence of higher wind shear, altered atmospheric circulation patterns, or more dry air at mid levels of the atmosphere. Indeed, the climate models used to formulate the 2007 IPCC report suggested that we might see the strongest hurricanes getting stronger, but a decrease in the total number of hurricanes in the Atlantic (and worldwide) later this century. However, the latest set of models used to formulate the 2013 IPCC report left open the possibility that we might see in increase in the total number of hurricanes, and and increase in their intensity. Given the conflicting model results, we really don't know how global warming will affect the number of hurricanes and their intensity, but we run the risk of making one of humanity's greatest scourges worse.


Figure 1. The list of most expensive U.S. weather-related disasters since 1980 is dominated by hurricanes.

Climate models and hurricane frequency
The database we have on historical hurricanes does not extend far enough into the past and is not of high enough quality to make many judgements on how human-caused climate change may be affecting these great storms. A landmark 2010 review paper, "Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change", authored by ten top hurricane scientists concluded that the U.S. has not seen any long-term increase in landfalling tropical storms and hurricanes, and that "it remains uncertain whether past changes in tropical cyclone activity have exceeded the variability expected from natural causes" (tropical cyclone is the generic term which encompasses tropical depressions, tropical storms, hurricanes, and typhoons.) Based in part on modeling studies using climate models run for the 2007 IPCC report, the scientists concluded that "it is likely that global mean tropical cyclone frequency will either decrease or remain unchanged owing to greenhouse warming." For example, one of the modeling studies the review paper quoted, Knutson et al. (2008), "Simulated reduction in Atlantic hurricane frequency under twenty-first-century warming conditions", projected a decrease in Atlantic tropical storms by 27% and hurricanes by 18% by the end of the century. An important reason that their model predicted these decreases was due to a predicted increase in wind shear. As I explain in my wind shear tutorial, a large change of wind speed with height over a hurricane creates a shearing force that tends to tear the storm apart. The amount of wind shear is critical in determining whether a hurricane can form or survive.

But a July 2013 study by MIT's Dr. Kerry Emanuel, "Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century", challenged this result. Dr. Emanuel argued that tropical cyclones are likely to become both stronger and more frequent as the climate continues to warm. This increase is most likely to occur in Western North Pacific, with smaller increases in the Atlantic. Dr. Emanuel took output from six newer higher-resolution climate models used to formulate the 2013 IPCC report, and used the output to drive a high-resolution hurricane model. The simulations found that the global frequency of tropical cyclones would increase by 11% to 40% by 2100, with intensity increases as well. The combined effects produced a global increase in Category 3 and stronger hurricanes of 40%. The behavior of these strongest hurricanes is critical, since they do most of the damage we observe. Over the past century, Category 3 - 5 hurricanes accounted for 85% of US hurricane damage, despite representing only 24% of U.S. landfalling storms. Category 4 and 5 hurricanes made up only 6% of all U.S. landfalls, but accounted for 48% of all U.S. damage (if normalized to account for increases in U.S. population and wealth, see Pielke et al., 2008.)


Figure 2. Projected changes in tropical cyclone track density during the 2006-2100 period compared to the 1950-2005 period, using output from six climate models included in the 2013 IPCC report. The global frequency of tropical cyclones is predicted to increase by 11% to 40%, with the largest changes occurring in the Northwest Pacific off the coast of Japan. Smaller increases are predicted for the Atlantic and near Australia. Image credit: Kerry Emanuel, "Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century", Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, July 8, 2013, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1301293110.

However, a study by Knutson et al. (2013), using the same latest-generation climate models as used by Emanuel (2013), but using the output from the models to drive a different high-resolution hurricane model, found a 20% decrease in Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes by 2100. Two other 2013 studies by Villarini et al. and Camargo, also using output from the 2013 IPCC models, found essentially no change in Atlantic tropical cyclones. The reason for the differences, lies, in part, with how much global warming is assumed in the studies. Dr. Emanuel's study, which found an increase in tropical cyclone activity, assumed a worst-case warming situation (RCP 8.5), following the "business as usual" emissions path humanity is currently on. The Knutson et al. study, which found a decrease of 20% in Atlantic tropical cyclones, used a scenario (RCP 4.5) where it was assumed humans will wise up and cause about half of the worst-case greenhouse warming. The study found found "marginally significant" increases in Atlantic Category 4 and 5 hurricanes of 39% - 45% by 2100. These dramatically different results give credence to Dr. Emanuel statement at the end of his paper, "the response of tropical cyclones to projected climate change will remain uncertain for some time to come." The 2013 IPCC report also emphasized the high amount of uncertainty in how climate change might affect hurricanes, stating that there was "low confidence" that we have observed any increases in intense tropical cyclones due to human causes. However, since the 1970s, it is virtually certain (99 - 100% chance) that the frequency and intensity of hurricanes and tropical storms in the North Atlantic has increased, and there is medium confidence that a reduction in small air pollution particles (aerosols) over the North Atlantic caused part of this effect. The report's forecast for the future stated that it is "more likely than not" (50 - 100% chance) that human-caused climate change will cause a substantial increase in intense tropical cyclones in some ocean basins by 2100, with the Western North Pacific and Atlantic being at particular risk. Also, there will likely (66 - 100% chance) be an increase in both global mean tropical cyclone maximum wind speed and rain rates by 2100, and more likely than not (50 - 100% chance) that the increase in the most intense tropical cyclones will be larger than 10% in some basins.


Figure 3. Expected change in Atlantic Category 4 and 5 hurricanes per decade expected by the year 2100, according to Knutson et al. (2013), "Dynamical Downscaling Projections of 21st Century Atlantic Hurricane Activity: CMIP3 and CMIP5 Model-based Scenarios." This research used the latest generation of climate models from the 2013 IPCC report, and found "marginally significant" increases in Atlantic Category 4 and 5 hurricanes of 39% - 45% by 2100.

Commentary
Hurricane damages are currently doubling every ten years without the effect of climate change, according to Pielke et al., 2008. This is primarily due to the increasing population along the coast and increased wealth of the population. The authors theorize that the Great Miami Hurricane of 1926, a Category 4 monster that made a direct hit on Miami Beach, would have caused about $150 billion in damage had it hit in 2005. Thus, by 2015, the same hurricane would do $300 billion in damage, and $600 billion by 2025. This is without considering the impact that accelerating sea level rise will have on storm surge damages. Global sea level rise over the past decade has been about double what it was in the 20th century, and the rate of sea level rise is expected to increase further in the coming decades. Storm surge does the majority of damage in major hurricanes, and storm surges riding on top of higher sea levels are going to do a lot more damage in the coming decades. If we toss in the (controversial) increases in Category 3 and stronger storms like Dr. Emanuel suggests may occur, the hurricane damage math gets very impressive. We can also add onto that the relatively non-controversial increase in tropical cyclone rainfall of 20% expected by 2100, which will sharply increase damages due to fresh water river flooding. It is controversial whether or not we are already be seeing an increase in heavy precipitation events associated with tropical cyclones in the U.S., though. The total number of daily rainfall events exceeding 2" associated with tropical cyclones in the Southeast U.S. on a century time scale has not changed significantly, according to Groisman et al., 2004. But a 2010 study by Kunkel et al., "Recent increases in U.S. heavy precipitation associated with tropical cyclones", found that the number of Southeast U.S. tropical cyclone heavy precipitation events, defined as 1-in-5-year events, more than doubled between 1994 - 2008, compared to the long-term average from 1895 - 2008.


Figure 4. Time series of the 15-year running average (plotted at the end point of the 15-yr blocks) of a Tropical Cyclone Heavy Precipitation Index (red) and 15-year running average of U.S. landfalling hurricanes (blue). Note that there has been no long-term increase in U.S. landfalling hurricanes, but there has been a sharp increase in extreme rainfall events associated with landfalling tropical cyclones--the kind of rainfall events most likely to cause damaging flooding. Image credit: Kunkel et al. (2010), "Recent increases in U.S. heavy precipitation associated with tropical cyclones", Geophysical Research Letters.

It is essential that we limit coastal development in vulnerable coastal areas, particularly along barrier islands, to reduce some of the astronomical price tags hurricanes are going to be causing in the future. Adoption and enforcement of strict building standards is also a must, as well as more reforms to the government's National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), which subsidizes development in high-risk coastal regions that private insurers won't touch. NFIP is now $25 - 30 billion in the red, thanks to Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Sandy. Reform of NFIP is already underway. In 2012, before Sandy hit, Congress passed the Biggert-Waters Flood Insurance Reform Act, which requires people with NFIP policies to pay large premium increases of about 25% per year over the next five years. Naturally, this move has caused major controversy.

References
Camargo, S., (2013), "Global and regional aspects of tropical cyclone activity in the CMIP5 models," J. Climate.

Emanuel, K.A., 2013, "Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century", PNAS, July 8, 2013, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1301293110

Groisman, Pavel Ya, et al., "Contemporary changes of the hydrological cycle over the contiguous United States: Trends derived from in situ observations," Journal of Hydrometeorology 5.1 (2004): 64-85.

Knutson et al., 2010, "Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change", Nature Geoscience 3, 157 - 163, Published online: 21 February 2010 | doi:10.1038/ngeo779

Knutson et al., 2013, Dynamical Downscaling Projections of 21st Century Atlantic Hurricane Activity: CMIP3 and CMIP5 Model-based Scenarios, Journal of Climate 2013 ; e-View
doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00539.1

Pielke, R.A, et al., 2008, "Normalized Hurricane Damage in the United States: 1900 - 2005," Natural Hazards Review, DOI:10.1061/ASCE1527-6988(2008)9:1(29)

Villarini, G, and G.A. Vecchi, 2012, "Twenty-first-century projections of North Atlantic tropical storms from CMIP5 models," Nature Clim. Change 2:604–607.

Related posts
Global warming and the frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes: model results, my 2010 blog post.

Climate Central's analysis of the new 2013 Kerry Emanuel paper.

Goodbye, Miami: Jeff Goodell's sobering 2013 article in Rolling Stone on the challenges Miami faces due to sea level rise and hurricanes.


What the official climate assessments say about climate change and hurricanes
The 2013 IPCC report gives “low confidence”--a 20% chance--that we have observed a human-caused increase in intense hurricanes in some parts of the world. This is a reduction in odds from the 2007 report, which said that it was more likely than not (greater than 50% chance.) The IPCC likely took note of a landmark 2010 review paper, "Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change", authored by ten top hurricane scientists, which concluded that the U.S. had not seen any long-term increase in landfalling tropical storms and hurricanes, and that "it remains uncertain whether past changes in tropical cyclone activity have exceeded the variability expected from natural causes." The 2013 IPCC report predicts that there is a greater than 50% chance (more likely than not) that we will see a human-caused increase in intense hurricanes by 2100 in some regions; this is also a reduction from the 2007 report, which said this would be likely (66% chance or higher.)

The May 2014 United States National Climate Assessment found that “The intensity, frequency, and duration of North Atlantic hurricanes, as well as the frequency of the strongest (Category 4 and 5) hurricanes, have all increased since the early 1980s. The relative contributions of human and natural causes to these increases are still uncertain. Hurricane-associated storm intensity and rainfall rates are projected to increase as the climate continues to warm.”

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 869 - 819

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52Blog Index

869. JLPR2
Quoting 856. GTstormChaserCaleb:
That is the thing, I wish my house had good infrastructure. I live in the Tampa area along the coast in Pinellas County. The house I live in is a flat house or what some would call a bungalow concrete built with a hip roof. It is about 30 years old. Not sure what type of winds it would be able to withstand. Again I guess it is my lack of experience of not being through one, but a lot of you have been through one and lived to tell the horrifying tale and I am also sure you have lost people closest to you. I am also sorry if this is offending anyone, as it is not my intent to do so.


Now that is serious problem, I wouldn't recommend you staying if you don't know that. I know my house survived Hugo(89) cat 4 and Georges (98) cat 3 without a scratch so I feel comfortable. You would need to make sure your house can withstand a hurricane to stay, if there is any doubts it can, leave and keep yourself safe.

You can see the type of house I live in in this picture from the July flood in my area. They are basically reinforced concrete boxes. XD

Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8691
Storm Surge Survival Misconceptions
By Jeffrey Masters, Ph.D. — Director of Meteorology, Weather Underground, Inc.




Figure 1. A man wearing a tiny life jacket and clutching a neon green noodle and a pet dog floats on the remains of a house in Waveland, MS, during Hurricane Katrina. The photo was taken from the second floor window of a home, and the water is close to the roof line of the first floor. The home was at an elevation of about 17 feet, and the surge is close to ten feet deep here. There are electric lines running down from a pole to a home from left to right. In the distance on the right is a home with water up to the roof line. The eye is probably overhead, as the water is relatively calm and there appears to be little wind or rain, even though the pine trees are bent from the recent force of the eyewall winds. The photo was taken by Judith Bradford. Her husband, Bill Bradford, swam out and rescued the man and his dog, and two other people who floated by. He reported that the water was nothing like white water, but was a gentle, continuous flow. He was lucky. In the nearby Porteaux Bay area, a woman watched her fiance get pulled from a tree by the force of the current. The man was washed out into the Gulf and drowned. The image above is described in more detail on Margie Kieper's Katrina storm surge web page
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128275
I thought we would see some type of TS/Hurricane on the long range GFS by now, I mean I am not even waiting up for the runs of this cause it hasnt been showing anything, kinda disappointed.
Member Since: July 31, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 925
Hal Gerrishon was still calling it a Cat 4 before landfall and Larry King was asking was it a Cat 5 ..amazing video..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SuperStorm093:
The more and more I am seeing we are going to have a below average season, I dont see why some are still predicting a VERY active season. I honestly believe we wont have a hurricane till mid September.


Some of us here have been around a long time and some of us have done some research on how a typical hurricane season goes. Every Hurricane season has a lull, in fact the 2005 Hurricane season had 3 or 4 lulls, it's like all the ingredients that go into making a hurricane need to recharge.

I believe from August 15 til October 15 we will be very very busy. And YOU can hold me to that.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 861. PalmBeachWeather:
Not offended GT , Just trying to convince you if there is an impending storm...Particularly where you live in aplace that is very vulnerable to storm surge
We are I'll pull up the slosh model.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8251
Quoting 853. PalmBeachWeather:
Ya think GT got the hint?... Seems many of us have been through the hell of a hurricane..


Words usually aren't enough to convince somebody until they experience it themselves, try as you might.

Still, I think words are enough for ME not to want to stay for a Category 5.

I'm usually not bothered by high winds at all, but there comes a point in time where you have to consider your safety over your personal sense of excitement or thrill, or even just plain stubbornness/ignorance.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 853. PalmBeachWeather:
Ya think GT got the hint?... Seems many of us have been through the hell of a hurricane..
It seems like I am the only one that has not. Anyone else haven't been through one before?
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8251
Not offended GT , Just trying to convince you if there is an impending storm...Particularly where you live in a place that is very vulnerable to storm surge
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Yes
Quoting 858. PalmBeachWeather:
Loxahatchee?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 856. GTstormChaserCaleb:
That is the thing, I wish my house had good infrastructure. I live in the Tampa area along the coast in Pinellas County. The house I live in is a flat house or what some would call a bungalow concrete built with a hip roof. Not sure what type of winds it would be able to withstand. Again I guess it is my lack of experience of not being through one, but a lot of you have been through one and lived to tell the horrifying tale and I am also sure you have lost people closest to you. I am also sorry if this is offending anyone, as it is not my intent to do so.


no you were just being honest..I wasn't offended at all..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 855. SFLWeatherman:
view of my house in lsaac! that was the weekend i move in!
Loxahatchee?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 832. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I'll brave a Cat. 5, but I think that would be dumb, stupid, and foolish on my part. I would tell my family to leave, while I stayed behind. Oh well YOLO.
I have been in hurricane winds a little over 100mph and it is rough. Things get bad real fast and you have no control over your own safety. It seems like that howling wind will never stop. If the storm surge don't get you, you have to worry about trees falling on your house. Then after the storm passes, you deal without electricity for a month.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 844. JLPR2:


Hmm... being alone doesn't sound like a good decision. It also depends on the type of house/shelter/place you plan on braving the storm and whether the area if flood prone.
That is the thing, I wish my house had good infrastructure. I live in the Tampa area along the coast in Pinellas County. The house I live in is a flat house or what some would call a bungalow concrete built with a hip roof. It is about 30 years old. Not sure what type of winds it would be able to withstand. Again I guess it is my lack of experience of not being through one, but a lot of you have been through one and lived to tell the horrifying tale and I am also sure you have lost people closest to you. I am also sorry if this is offending anyone, as it is not my intent to do so.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8251
view of my house in lsaac! that was the weekend i move in!

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 851. Siker:

That sure wasn't your reaction to Camille's predictions ;).


Well, he said it was going to be a 60kt storm when it was already weakening at a 25 MPH storm lol. Just watch.
Member Since: July 31, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 925
Ya think GT got the hint?... Seems many of us have been through the hell of a hurricane..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 846. SuperStorm093:
Until we get a hurricane, respect it atleast. If we do before, you can ignore me and laugh all you want.


I respect it, I just don't agree with it. I've observed many hurricane seasons, and things will get active. And if the pattern doesn't change, many land areas will become a battleground for tropical cyclones.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
851. Siker
Quoting 846. SuperStorm093:
Until we get a hurricane, respect it atleast. If we do before, you can ignore me and laugh all you want.

That sure wasn't your reaction to Camille's predictions ;).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
We will see; we cannot predict what will happen this year (landfall location-intensity wise) and we can only hope for the best for Caribbean and US.

Yall have a Good Evening...........WW.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 832. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I'll brave a Cat. 5, but I think that would be dumb, stupid, and foolish on my part. I would tell my family to leave, while I stayed behind. Oh well YOLO.


GT, I really hope you reconsider that..I have been in several Cat 3s..one thing about a hurricane is there are two parts to it..you go through the first terrifying part and then the eyewall crosses over you and fools you thinking you endured the entire storm and then you have to do it all over again..and after the storm has passed..no power, heat, humidty, utilities shut off..its awful..A cat 5 is nothing I want to experience
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
The rapid intensification episode with Andrew when sheer dropped and it hit the Gulf Stream is the forecaster's nightmare.

I will never forget the look on Bob Sheet's face on TV on Sunday evening when he was looking at the image and saying this looks like the "big one"...........Everyone started losing power all over Miami a bout an hour after that and NHC lost their Doppler dish from the roof of their building (across the street from UM) a few hours later.


165mph gusts can do that..Nothing though compared to the 180 gusts in some parts in florida city.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
I'll brave a Cat. 5, but I think that would be dumb, stupid, and foolish on my part. I would tell my family to leave, while I stayed behind. Oh well YOLO.


You Only Live Once.......

Don't forget, You Only Die Once too.
Just make sure you write your social security number on your arms, legs,on your forehead and also across your chest, in case you become separated. Also strap a GoPro camera to your chest too.

Good Luck also.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 837. KoritheMan:


LOL
Until we get a hurricane, respect it atleast. If we do before, you can ignore me and laugh all you want.
Member Since: July 31, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 925
Quoting 832. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I'll brave a Cat. 5, but I think that would be dumb, stupid, and foolish on my part. I would tell my family to leave, while I stayed behind. Oh well YOLO.
GT............You don't want to do that...Wilma was the worst for me...My home just shook and rumbled and made weird noises. I was just waiting for the roof to come off..Then what the hell do you do.....It's a life or death situation..Choose life and leave
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
844. JLPR2
Quoting 832. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I'll brave a Cat. 5, but I think that would be dumb, stupid, and foolish on my part. I would tell my family to leave, while I stayed behind. Oh well YOLO.


Hmm... being alone doesn't sound like a good decision. It also depends on the type of house/shelter/place you plan on braving the storm and whether the area if flood prone.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8691
Quoting 826. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I have question for you all and be honest, yes or no would you ride out a major hurricane? Don't need to give an explanation. I'll start it off with a yes. BTW I have never been in one, so lack of experience could be the reason why I would stay behind to witness the thrill. I love rollercoasters maybe that's why I think I will like hurricanes.


NO
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The rapid intensification episode with Andrew when sheer dropped and it hit the Gulf Stream is the forecaster's nightmare.

I will never forget the look on Bob Sheet's face on TV on Sunday evening when he was looking at the image and saying this looks like the "big one"...........Everyone started losing power all over Miami a bout an hour after that and NHC lost their Doppler dish from the roof of their building (across the street from UM) a few hours later.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 830. PalmBeachWeather:
I was a volunteer for a month after Andrew struck.....I could drive for miles and miles and never escape the damage.....From Florida City to North Miami....Shocking


I was stunned at what I saw. I just read today that the populations of Dade and Broward counties have increased 35% since 1990. Let us hope they can stay lucky.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
840. JLPR2
Quoting 826. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I have question for you all and be honest, yes or no would you ride out a major hurricane? Don't need to give an explanation. I'll start it off with a yes. BTW I have never been in one, so lack of experience could be the reason why I would stay behind to witness the thrill. I love rollercoasters maybe that's why I think I will like hurricanes.


Pretty much already answered, when I said any storm, I meant it. Though the degree of preparations depends on the storm. Believe me if a cat 5 hits the area I will not go anywhere near the window, unlike a cat 3 or even a weak 4.

A cat 5 would equalize sitting in the safest area of the house in the dark.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8691
Quoting 820. KoritheMan:
This discussion has me intrigued; curious to know what the benchmark hurricane intensity is for you guys to leave, rather than ride it out.

I'll stay for anything up to a Category 3. Anything beyond that and I don't think I'm willing to brave it.


Hmmm..K & R hit as 3's, Ike as a 2. The thing is, evacuation can't be a last-minute decision. Between evac supplies, gas, ungodly traffic, and evacuation lodging that can be hundreds of miles away, you can't really gamble based on a relatively arbitrary S-S scale that can change in less time than it would take you to evacuate. And by arbitrary scale, I mean the minimal difference between a high-level 2 and a 3, or a high-level 3 and a 4. And as we've seen w/ Sandy and Isaac, storm category is sometimes not tied to potential danger (storm surge).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
I'll brave a Cat. 5, but I think that would be dumb, stupid, and foolish on my part. I would tell my family to leave, while I stayed behind. Oh well YOLO.


Make sure to write your Social Security Number, with a black Marker, on your arm and on your leg so that your body can be identified.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 834. SuperStorm093:
The more and more I am seeing we are going to have a below average season, I dont see why some are still predicting a VERY active season. I honestly believe we wont have a hurricane till mid September.


LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 832. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I'll brave a Cat. 5, but I think that would be dumb, stupid, and foolish on my part. I would tell my family to leave, while I stayed behind. Oh well YOLO.


Good luck. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 832. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I'll brave a Cat. 5, but I think that would be dumb, stupid, and foolish on my part. I would tell my family to leave, while I stayed behind. Oh well YOLO.Dumb,Stupid, and Foolish...YES
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The more and more I am seeing we are going to have a below average season, I dont see why some are still predicting a VERY active season. I honestly believe we wont have a hurricane till mid September.
Member Since: July 31, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 925
000
FXUS62 KMLB 051848 CCA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
247 PM EDT MON AUG 5 2013

.DISCUSSION...
URRENT-TONIGHT...FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE SHIFTED TO THE
NORTHWEST AS EVIDENT BY THE MOTION OF THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THE WEATHER RADARS AT WEST PALM BEACH AND MELBOURNE WERE
INDICATING THAT THE SEA BREEZE HAD FORMED AND WAS PUSHING WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95. THE MERGER OF THE NORTHWEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW AND
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS STORMS ALONG IT WITH MOVEMENT TO THE
SOUTH SOUTHEAST IN VOLUSIA COUNT INTO NORTH BREVARD. MORE STORMS
WERE MOVING QUICKLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER LAKE AND ORANGE COUNTIES
INTO SEMINOLE AND OSCEOLA COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME
STRONGER STORMS EAST OF THE INTERSTATE IN VOLUSIA...BREVARD AND
INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES AS THE TWO WIND REGIMES MERGE. UPPER LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AROUND -5C TO -6C FAVOR WET MICROBURSTS AND RAIN LADEN
DOWNBURSTS AND THE 15Z SOUNDING FROM CAPE CANAVERAL IS SUGGESTING
GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS.

STORMS ALONG THE COAST ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER UNTIL MID EVENING THEN
DISSIPATE. MID AND HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS THIN OUT AND SKIES BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR TOWARD SUNRISE. DEW POINTS IN THE LOW AND MID 70S
SUGGEST OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW AND MID 70S.


TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY ...NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
DOWN THE U.S. EAST COAST AND INTO FLORIDA. RAIN CHANCES DROP BACK TO
30 DURING THE DAY AND 20 FOR THE EVENING. HIGHS LOW 90S INTERIOR AND
UPPER 80S AT THE COAST DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW. LOWS IN THE LOW AND
MID 70S.

PREVIOUS ZONE DISCUSSION
THURSDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE STATE ACROSS
THE N CUBAN COAST WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS CONTINUING. LOW LVL
FLOW WILL BE SE BUT MOISTURE LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH
POPS IN THE 20-30 PCT RANGE
. HIGHS UPR 80S COAST TO AROUND 93
INTERIOR.

FRI-MON...THE UPPER LOW WILL PULL INTO THE SE GULF ON FRIDAY WITH
CONTINUED SE LOW LVL FLOW. SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS ACROSS
SRN SECTIONS AS SOME SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE WORKS IN ACROSS THE
AREA. A STRONG MID LVL RIDGE WITH 594-595 DM HEIGHTS WILL MOVE FROM
OFF THE EAST COAST SAT TO N FL SUNDAY. THE ATLC RIDGE NORTH OF THE
AREA ON SATURDAY WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH OVER CENTRAL FL BY LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. OVERALL...MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN LOW AND
CONVECTION SHOULD BE SUPPRESSED OVER THE WEEKEND.
EXPECT SOME
SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE INTERIOR WITH SLGT CHANCES CLOSER
TO THE COAST AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND EACH
AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE A HOT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS AROUND 90/LWR 90S FOR
THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND MID 90S OVER THE INTERIOR. MONDAY...THE MID
LVL RIDGE WILL MOVE TWD THE WRN GULF COAST. SOME QUESTION ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE EXTENDING BACK TWD N FL. FOR NOW WILL GO CLOSE
GFS MOS WITH LOW CHC FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS.


What in the world are they talking about? Since when does a PW around 2.0 inches which is a deep moist air mass become considered dry air and a convection suppressive air mass?

Seriously, I can't figure out why they would say that, the models don't indicate any dry suppressive air mass on the way...

From Miami:

000
FXUS62 KMFL 051808
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
208 PM EDT MON AUG 5 2013

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT)...
CURRENT SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
TEXAS WITH ITS RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. AT THE SURFACE, A TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS. THIS IS CONTINUING THE WESTERLY STEERING FLOW FOR SOUTH
FLORIDA WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR
AND EAST COAST METRO REGION THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY TRANQUIL ONCE THE DIURNAL
HEATING CYCLE IS LOST AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.

ON TUESDAY, SOUTH FLORIDA WILL UNDERGO A TRANSITIONAL PERIOD AS A
MID LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EAST. THIS TROUGH IS
CURRENTLY NEAR HISPANIOLA AND HAS BEEN WELL TRACKED BY THE GLOBAL
MODELS. IT WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN BAHAMAS ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT THE MID/UPPER WIND FLOW TO A NORTHEAST DIRECTION. AT
THE SAME TIME, A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. VEERING THE LOW LEVEL WIND TO AN EAST
DIRECTION ACROSS OUR REGION. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING
PWAT REMAINING NEAR TWO INCHES SO STORMS WILL TEND TO DEVELOP NEAR
THE EAST COAST AND THEN SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARDS THE WEST INTO THE
EVERGLADES AND SOUTHWEST COAST. THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON WEDNESDAY WITH A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW BECOMING
ESTABLISHED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS COULD BRING AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF NOCTURNAL SHOWERS ALONG THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND A THREAT FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST COAST. AT THIS TIME, THE ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY PROFILE DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH WITH PWAT CONTINUING AROUND
TWO INCHES AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.


From Tampa:

000
FXUS62 KTBW 051813
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
213 PM EDT MON AUG 5 2013

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...
ALOFT...RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING SOUTHEAST DOWN THE PENINSULA FROM
OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST REGION...WITH A TUTT LOW
APPROACHING THE AREA...MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...BY
WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT DRAPED
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS A TROUGH AHEAD OF
IT SETTLES ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH TUESDAY. MEANWHILE
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA
STRAITS FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL GRADUALLY BRIDGE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GULF WATERS AND THE RIDGE AXIS LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA IN A LIGHT WESTERLY
FLOW TONIGHT...TRANSITIONING TUESDAY TO AN EASTERLY FLOW WITH AN
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE...AND A MORE ESTABLISHED EASTERLY FLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AGAIN DEVELOPING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH THE
TIMING SHIFTING TO LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS WINDS BECOME
MORE EASTERLY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80.
WILL ALSO HAVE ANOTHER DAY OR TWO OF AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES
REACHING 100-105 IN AREAS BEFORE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVES IN AHEAD
OF THE TUTT IN THE LONG TERM.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE BAHAMAS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
WILL MOVE WEST THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH FRIDAY AS DEEP
LAYERED RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE VICINITY OF 30N THROUGH
THE PERIOD. AMPLE MOISTURE WILL FAVOR SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES
WITH HIGHEST POPS
FAVORED ALONG AND TO THE WEST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS AS A DEEP LAYERED SOUTHEAST WIND
FLOW KEEPS THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY CLOSE TO THE COAST
EACH AFTERNOON.

DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BUILD WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PENINSULA.
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR
SCATTERED SEA BREEZE DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY DURING
THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH A SOUTHEAST STEERING
FLOW ALBEIT LIGHT STILL FAVORING HIGHEST POPS (40 PERCENT) ALONG
THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON.

Now the NWS in Ruskin in Miami both agree with the models by indicating plentiful moisture around the area through the period being near normal levels. I wonder why then the NWS in Melbourne would contradict what seems obvious to me? The air mass over west central Florida and South Florida will be virtually the same overall as the east side of the state. I'm not really sure then why they would say this...



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 820. KoritheMan:
This discussion has me intrigued; curious to know what the benchmark hurricane intensity is for you guys to leave, rather than ride it out.

I'll stay for anything up to a Category 3. Anything beyond that and I don't think I'm willing to brave it.
I'll brave a Cat. 5, but I think that would be dumb, stupid, and foolish on my part. I would tell my family to leave, while I stayed behind. Oh well YOLO.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8251
Quoting 828. Tropicsweatherpr:
Nothing from NHC for the next five days.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON AUG 5 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?COD E=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



Oh well....should have known.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 823. olnutt:
I am an insurance adjuster and worked Hurricane Andrew. This was an event the media didn't need to exaggerate as they do many disasters. One of the bloggers here mentioned it looked like an atomic bomb had his. That is a good way to describe it. It was like a ten mile wide damage with everything in that area destroyed or seriously damaged. This went on for mile after mile. What was weird is that you could drive towards the zone of damage and streets just a few blocks away had no damage. Street by street you could clearly see the damage increase as you got closer to where the eye wall passed. I've worked on about twenty of these tropical systems over the last thirty five years and have not seen wind damage anything like this.
I was a volunteer for a month after Andrew struck.....I could drive for miles and miles and never escape the damage.....From Florida City to North Miami....Shocking
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 826. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I have question for you all and be honest, yes or no would you ride out a major hurricane? Don't need to give an explanation. I'll start it off with a yes. BTW I have never been in one, so lack of experience could be the reason why I would stay behind to witness the thrill. I love rollercoasters maybe that's why I think I will like hurricanes.


Yes I would. But again, it wouldn't be anything above a Category 3.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Nothing from NHC for the next five days.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON AUG 5 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?COD E=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14256
If local officals tell you to get out YOU MUST GO. Point blank
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I have question for you all and be honest, yes or no would you ride out a major hurricane? Don't need to give an explanation. I'll start it off with a yes. BTW I have never been in one, so lack of experience could be the reason why I would stay behind to witness the thrill. I love rollercoasters maybe that's why I think I will like hurricanes.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8251
Quoting 820. KoritheMan:
This discussion has me intrigued; curious to know what the benchmark hurricane intensity is for you guys to leave, rather than ride it out.

I'll stay for anything up to a Category 3. Anything beyond that and I don't think I'm willing to brave it.


I admit but I was going to ride out Floyd..it was projected at a Cat 4 to make landfall..we boarded up from the inside..neighbors were telling each other to do so..for what reason I dont know..if floyd had come in as a Cat 4, I dont think I might be here to blog with yall..hurricane savy I am and I will leave if a 4/5 comes my way
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 820. KoritheMan:
This discussion has me intrigued; curious to know what the benchmark hurricane intensity is for you guys to leave, rather than ride it out.

I'll stay for anything up to a Category 3. Anything beyond that and I don't think I'm willing to brave it.


Depends on whether you live in a costal evac zone too. If I did, I would probably evacuate even for a Cat 1 if the area had a history of bad surge issues.

Short of that, Andrew came ashore in a less populated area but the majority of the "suburb" damage was several miles inland......Nobody in those inland parts were were under evacuation orders. In other words, inland folks did not stay to "ride out" the storm. Nobody imagined that it would remain so potent after coming ashore.............Caught hundreds of thousands of folks by total surprise inland.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I am an insurance adjuster and worked Hurricane Andrew. This was an event the media didn't need to exaggerate as they do many disasters. One of the bloggers here mentioned it looked like an atomic bomb had his. That is a good way to describe it. It was like a ten mile wide damage with everything in that area destroyed or seriously damaged. This went on for mile after mile. What was weird is that you could drive towards the zone of damage and streets just a few blocks away had no damage. Street by street you could clearly see the damage increase as you got closer to where the eye wall passed. I've worked on about twenty of these tropical systems over the last thirty five years and have not seen wind damage anything like this.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 817. hurricane23:


Had andrew made landfall few miles north boy boy boy
hurricane23.....I agree....It was terrible, but of all places to come ashore, Andrew did pick the best place..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
821. JLPR2
I live on an island, there is nowhere to go, unless I take a plane out of here...

My grandma rode out the 1928 San Felipe II (Okeechobee hurricane) when she was 5, as it crossed the island of PR at cat 5 strength, in a concrete building, she says the houses in the neighborhood that were made of wood were torn apart.

With that in mind I will bunker down in my house for any storm.
Barometer in hand, flashlight at one side and radio on the other. XD
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8691
This discussion has me intrigued; curious to know what the benchmark hurricane intensity is for you guys to leave, rather than ride it out.

I'll stay for anything up to a Category 3. Anything beyond that and I don't think I'm willing to brave it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
nice spin with this tropical wave!
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 16 Comments: 31331

Viewing: 869 - 819

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Mostly Cloudy
75 °F
Mostly Cloudy