Hurricanes and Climate Change: Huge Dangers, Huge Unknowns

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:57 AM GMT on August 05, 2013

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Hurricane Sandy's enormous $65 billion price tag put that great storm in third place for the most expensive weather-related disaster in U.S. (and world) history, and six of the ten most expensive U.S. weather-related disasters since 1980 have been hurricanes. Thus, how the strongest hurricanes may be affected due a changing climate is a topic of critical concern. Since hurricanes are heat engines that extract heat energy from the oceans to power themselves, hurricane scientists are confident that the very strongest storms will get stronger by the end of the century, when Earth's land and ocean temperatures are expected to warm 2 - 3°C, to levels unmatched since the Eemian Era, 115,000 years ago. Computer modeling work consistently indicates that greenhouse warming will cause the globally averaged intensity of tropical cyclones to shift towards stronger storms, with intensity increases of 2–11% by 2100. But hurricanes are fussy creations, and are sensitive to wind shear and dry air. Although the strongest storms should get stronger when "perfect storm" conditions are present, these "perfect storm" conditions may become less frequent in the future, due to the presence of higher wind shear, altered atmospheric circulation patterns, or more dry air at mid levels of the atmosphere. Indeed, the climate models used to formulate the 2007 IPCC report suggested that we might see the strongest hurricanes getting stronger, but a decrease in the total number of hurricanes in the Atlantic (and worldwide) later this century. However, the latest set of models used to formulate the 2013 IPCC report left open the possibility that we might see in increase in the total number of hurricanes, and and increase in their intensity. Given the conflicting model results, we really don't know how global warming will affect the number of hurricanes and their intensity, but we run the risk of making one of humanity's greatest scourges worse.


Figure 1. The list of most expensive U.S. weather-related disasters since 1980 is dominated by hurricanes.

Climate models and hurricane frequency
The database we have on historical hurricanes does not extend far enough into the past and is not of high enough quality to make many judgements on how human-caused climate change may be affecting these great storms. A landmark 2010 review paper, "Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change", authored by ten top hurricane scientists concluded that the U.S. has not seen any long-term increase in landfalling tropical storms and hurricanes, and that "it remains uncertain whether past changes in tropical cyclone activity have exceeded the variability expected from natural causes" (tropical cyclone is the generic term which encompasses tropical depressions, tropical storms, hurricanes, and typhoons.) Based in part on modeling studies using climate models run for the 2007 IPCC report, the scientists concluded that "it is likely that global mean tropical cyclone frequency will either decrease or remain unchanged owing to greenhouse warming." For example, one of the modeling studies the review paper quoted, Knutson et al. (2008), "Simulated reduction in Atlantic hurricane frequency under twenty-first-century warming conditions", projected a decrease in Atlantic tropical storms by 27% and hurricanes by 18% by the end of the century. An important reason that their model predicted these decreases was due to a predicted increase in wind shear. As I explain in my wind shear tutorial, a large change of wind speed with height over a hurricane creates a shearing force that tends to tear the storm apart. The amount of wind shear is critical in determining whether a hurricane can form or survive.

But a July 2013 study by MIT's Dr. Kerry Emanuel, "Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century", challenged this result. Dr. Emanuel argued that tropical cyclones are likely to become both stronger and more frequent as the climate continues to warm. This increase is most likely to occur in Western North Pacific, with smaller increases in the Atlantic. Dr. Emanuel took output from six newer higher-resolution climate models used to formulate the 2013 IPCC report, and used the output to drive a high-resolution hurricane model. The simulations found that the global frequency of tropical cyclones would increase by 11% to 40% by 2100, with intensity increases as well. The combined effects produced a global increase in Category 3 and stronger hurricanes of 40%. The behavior of these strongest hurricanes is critical, since they do most of the damage we observe. Over the past century, Category 3 - 5 hurricanes accounted for 85% of US hurricane damage, despite representing only 24% of U.S. landfalling storms. Category 4 and 5 hurricanes made up only 6% of all U.S. landfalls, but accounted for 48% of all U.S. damage (if normalized to account for increases in U.S. population and wealth, see Pielke et al., 2008.)


Figure 2. Projected changes in tropical cyclone track density during the 2006-2100 period compared to the 1950-2005 period, using output from six climate models included in the 2013 IPCC report. The global frequency of tropical cyclones is predicted to increase by 11% to 40%, with the largest changes occurring in the Northwest Pacific off the coast of Japan. Smaller increases are predicted for the Atlantic and near Australia. Image credit: Kerry Emanuel, "Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century", Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, July 8, 2013, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1301293110.

However, a study by Knutson et al. (2013), using the same latest-generation climate models as used by Emanuel (2013), but using the output from the models to drive a different high-resolution hurricane model, found a 20% decrease in Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes by 2100. Two other 2013 studies by Villarini et al. and Camargo, also using output from the 2013 IPCC models, found essentially no change in Atlantic tropical cyclones. The reason for the differences, lies, in part, with how much global warming is assumed in the studies. Dr. Emanuel's study, which found an increase in tropical cyclone activity, assumed a worst-case warming situation (RCP 8.5), following the "business as usual" emissions path humanity is currently on. The Knutson et al. study, which found a decrease of 20% in Atlantic tropical cyclones, used a scenario (RCP 4.5) where it was assumed humans will wise up and cause about half of the worst-case greenhouse warming. The study found found "marginally significant" increases in Atlantic Category 4 and 5 hurricanes of 39% - 45% by 2100. These dramatically different results give credence to Dr. Emanuel statement at the end of his paper, "the response of tropical cyclones to projected climate change will remain uncertain for some time to come." The 2013 IPCC report also emphasized the high amount of uncertainty in how climate change might affect hurricanes, stating that there was "low confidence" that we have observed any increases in intense tropical cyclones due to human causes. However, since the 1970s, it is virtually certain (99 - 100% chance) that the frequency and intensity of hurricanes and tropical storms in the North Atlantic has increased, and there is medium confidence that a reduction in small air pollution particles (aerosols) over the North Atlantic caused part of this effect. The report's forecast for the future stated that it is "more likely than not" (50 - 100% chance) that human-caused climate change will cause a substantial increase in intense tropical cyclones in some ocean basins by 2100, with the Western North Pacific and Atlantic being at particular risk. Also, there will likely (66 - 100% chance) be an increase in both global mean tropical cyclone maximum wind speed and rain rates by 2100, and more likely than not (50 - 100% chance) that the increase in the most intense tropical cyclones will be larger than 10% in some basins.


Figure 3. Expected change in Atlantic Category 4 and 5 hurricanes per decade expected by the year 2100, according to Knutson et al. (2013), "Dynamical Downscaling Projections of 21st Century Atlantic Hurricane Activity: CMIP3 and CMIP5 Model-based Scenarios." This research used the latest generation of climate models from the 2013 IPCC report, and found "marginally significant" increases in Atlantic Category 4 and 5 hurricanes of 39% - 45% by 2100.

Commentary
Hurricane damages are currently doubling every ten years without the effect of climate change, according to Pielke et al., 2008. This is primarily due to the increasing population along the coast and increased wealth of the population. The authors theorize that the Great Miami Hurricane of 1926, a Category 4 monster that made a direct hit on Miami Beach, would have caused about $150 billion in damage had it hit in 2005. Thus, by 2015, the same hurricane would do $300 billion in damage, and $600 billion by 2025. This is without considering the impact that accelerating sea level rise will have on storm surge damages. Global sea level rise over the past decade has been about double what it was in the 20th century, and the rate of sea level rise is expected to increase further in the coming decades. Storm surge does the majority of damage in major hurricanes, and storm surges riding on top of higher sea levels are going to do a lot more damage in the coming decades. If we toss in the (controversial) increases in Category 3 and stronger storms like Dr. Emanuel suggests may occur, the hurricane damage math gets very impressive. We can also add onto that the relatively non-controversial increase in tropical cyclone rainfall of 20% expected by 2100, which will sharply increase damages due to fresh water river flooding. It is controversial whether or not we are already be seeing an increase in heavy precipitation events associated with tropical cyclones in the U.S., though. The total number of daily rainfall events exceeding 2" associated with tropical cyclones in the Southeast U.S. on a century time scale has not changed significantly, according to Groisman et al., 2004. But a 2010 study by Kunkel et al., "Recent increases in U.S. heavy precipitation associated with tropical cyclones", found that the number of Southeast U.S. tropical cyclone heavy precipitation events, defined as 1-in-5-year events, more than doubled between 1994 - 2008, compared to the long-term average from 1895 - 2008.


Figure 4. Time series of the 15-year running average (plotted at the end point of the 15-yr blocks) of a Tropical Cyclone Heavy Precipitation Index (red) and 15-year running average of U.S. landfalling hurricanes (blue). Note that there has been no long-term increase in U.S. landfalling hurricanes, but there has been a sharp increase in extreme rainfall events associated with landfalling tropical cyclones--the kind of rainfall events most likely to cause damaging flooding. Image credit: Kunkel et al. (2010), "Recent increases in U.S. heavy precipitation associated with tropical cyclones", Geophysical Research Letters.

It is essential that we limit coastal development in vulnerable coastal areas, particularly along barrier islands, to reduce some of the astronomical price tags hurricanes are going to be causing in the future. Adoption and enforcement of strict building standards is also a must, as well as more reforms to the government's National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), which subsidizes development in high-risk coastal regions that private insurers won't touch. NFIP is now $25 - 30 billion in the red, thanks to Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Sandy. Reform of NFIP is already underway. In 2012, before Sandy hit, Congress passed the Biggert-Waters Flood Insurance Reform Act, which requires people with NFIP policies to pay large premium increases of about 25% per year over the next five years. Naturally, this move has caused major controversy.

References
Camargo, S., (2013), "Global and regional aspects of tropical cyclone activity in the CMIP5 models," J. Climate.

Emanuel, K.A., 2013, "Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century", PNAS, July 8, 2013, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1301293110

Groisman, Pavel Ya, et al., "Contemporary changes of the hydrological cycle over the contiguous United States: Trends derived from in situ observations," Journal of Hydrometeorology 5.1 (2004): 64-85.

Knutson et al., 2010, "Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change", Nature Geoscience 3, 157 - 163, Published online: 21 February 2010 | doi:10.1038/ngeo779

Knutson et al., 2013, Dynamical Downscaling Projections of 21st Century Atlantic Hurricane Activity: CMIP3 and CMIP5 Model-based Scenarios, Journal of Climate 2013 ; e-View
doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00539.1

Pielke, R.A, et al., 2008, "Normalized Hurricane Damage in the United States: 1900 - 2005," Natural Hazards Review, DOI:10.1061/ASCE1527-6988(2008)9:1(29)

Villarini, G, and G.A. Vecchi, 2012, "Twenty-first-century projections of North Atlantic tropical storms from CMIP5 models," Nature Clim. Change 2:604–607.

Related posts
Global warming and the frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes: model results, my 2010 blog post.

Climate Central's analysis of the new 2013 Kerry Emanuel paper.

Goodbye, Miami: Jeff Goodell's sobering 2013 article in Rolling Stone on the challenges Miami faces due to sea level rise and hurricanes.


What the official climate assessments say about climate change and hurricanes
The 2013 IPCC report gives “low confidence”--a 20% chance--that we have observed a human-caused increase in intense hurricanes in some parts of the world. This is a reduction in odds from the 2007 report, which said that it was more likely than not (greater than 50% chance.) The IPCC likely took note of a landmark 2010 review paper, "Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change", authored by ten top hurricane scientists, which concluded that the U.S. had not seen any long-term increase in landfalling tropical storms and hurricanes, and that "it remains uncertain whether past changes in tropical cyclone activity have exceeded the variability expected from natural causes." The 2013 IPCC report predicts that there is a greater than 50% chance (more likely than not) that we will see a human-caused increase in intense hurricanes by 2100 in some regions; this is also a reduction from the 2007 report, which said this would be likely (66% chance or higher.)

The May 2014 United States National Climate Assessment found that “The intensity, frequency, and duration of North Atlantic hurricanes, as well as the frequency of the strongest (Category 4 and 5) hurricanes, have all increased since the early 1980s. The relative contributions of human and natural causes to these increases are still uncertain. Hurricane-associated storm intensity and rainfall rates are projected to increase as the climate continues to warm.”

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 1045. KoritheMan:


I don't think anyone would deny that the aftermath of a storm isn't exciting in the slightest. I've been there and done that as well.

But there's this certain thrill of being lambasted by hurricane force winds and pounding rain that I don't think words can adequately express.

Thankfully there hasn't been any mud-flinging or name calling in today's discussion like there usually is, which is good. I don't think I am evil for wanting a hurricane; I might be "crazy" according to some of you, but that's something I can live with being called. :)

Overall, people have their different niches. I have no desire to see homes flattened or people killed, but at the same time, my ideal world is not one where the sun shines and the birds sing. That's dreadfully dull to me, and hurricanes liven things up.

Incidentally, that's also why I'd never be able to live in places like southern California or Hawaii, because barring exceptionally rare occasions, the dominant weather in those areas is slumber-inducing. :P

Korith, That was not my intention at all!! If you like the thrill of hurricane, great. Heck, I'm not even saying that going through a hurricane is not an adrenalin rush because it is. A man feels much younger when his adrenalin kicks in. Please don't take my comment to mean that I disagree with the way you feel.
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Quoting 1054. BahaHurican:
A friend of mine who was still living on Eleuthera at the time said he never wants to go through anything like that again... he particularly talked about how high the water was...

In Nassau there's a lot of development along the coast, in places where nobody lived even during Andrew, and which was most definitely undeveloped during the big storms of the 1920s. I only hope people have more sense now than they did during Andrew.



A friend recently mentioned, was it the Chinese, now building a bigger resort than even Atlantis?
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Quoting 1052. JLPR2:
1998 with four active hurricanes.



And 1995 with three active systems and 2 TW that would ultimately develop into Karen and Luis and considering this year's CV season is supposed to be active we could see something very similar as we head into September.

I perfectly remember George's. From all the reading here about patterns, ridges etc I have a feeling that Puerto Rico could experience another once again.
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Quoting 1062. mitchelace5:


Low-end TS Erin?

More like low end TD
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Quoting 1061. NasBahMan:


We have always been extremely lucky in the Bahamas when it comes to deaths and injuries from hurricanes, I fear this will not be the case the next time a major storm hits New Providence from the south, could be facing a storm surge like Current Island experienced in Andrew which was 27'. I always urge anyone on the south coast to stay with relatives further inland when storms are approaching.



OH, that's such a tough scenario!
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Quoting 1057. BahaHurican:
So Gil is crossing into the CPac and Henriette is also expected to do so later this week... I don't remember this level of activity surviving to cross into the CPac.....


Happens quite a lot, actually. 1989 and 1992 were both very active for that basin, for example.
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All this humidity or WV will move west from the Indian ocean and will contribute to block the African SAL, leaving conditions ready for the CV season...

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Quoting hurricanes2018:
1007MB LOW at 72 hours!


Low-end TS Erin?
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Quoting 1054. BahaHurican:
A friend of mine who was still living on Eleuthera at the time said he never wants to go through anything like that again... he particularly talked about how high the water was...

In Nassau there's a lot of development along the coast, in places where nobody lived even during Andrew, and which was most definitely undeveloped during the big storms of the 1920s. I only hope people have more sense now than they did during Andrew.


We have always been extremely lucky in the Bahamas when it comes to deaths and injuries from hurricanes, I fear this will not be the case the next time a major storm hits New Providence from the south, could be facing a storm surge like Current Island experienced in Andrew which was 27'. I always urge anyone on the south coast to stay with relatives further inland when storms are approaching.
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The last time the east Pacific went so long without a major hurricane of any sort was 2007. That trend was broken on August 11 when Flossie became a Category 3 hurricane.

Before that, the latest start to the season's first major hurricane was 1981, when Norma reached major hurricane status on October 10.

And, while unlikely, both the 1977 and 2003 seasons had no major hurricanes at all.
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hmmmmmm....
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1007MB LOW at 72 hours!
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So Gil is crossing into the CPac and Henriette is also expected to do so later this week... I don't remember this level of activity surviving to cross into the CPac.....
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Quoting Hurricanes305:
Atlantic becoming more favorable everyday as upper ridge begins to take over. Its now trying to extend into the Eastern Caribbean. The TUTT is expected to move west will be replaced by an expand upper ridge.



Hmmmmm... the only hindrance I see to Tropical Cyclone formation, is that jet across the US, dipping into the Atlantic, causing some strong upper-level winds.
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Quoting 1047. NasBahMan:


Would not have been pretty, I traveled to Eleuthera, Harbour Island and Spanish Wells the next day, we were unable to land because of the water covering the runway, went back the next day and everyone on Harbour Island was walking around as if shell shocked, there was not a branch left on any tree on the island.
A friend of mine who was still living on Eleuthera at the time said he never wants to go through anything like that again... he particularly talked about how high the water was...

In Nassau there's a lot of development along the coast, in places where nobody lived even during Andrew, and which was most definitely undeveloped during the big storms of the 1920s. I only hope people have more sense now than they did during Andrew.
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TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082013
800 PM PDT MON AUG 05 2013

HENRIETTE IS APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH THIS EVENING WITH A
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE GROWING NEAR THE CENTER. MICROWAVE
DATA SHOW THAT THE CENTRAL FEATURES CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER
DEFINED...WITH WHAT RESEMBLES AN EYEWALL PRESENT ON THE LATEST
PASSES. DUE TO THE INCREASE IN INNER-CORE ORGANIZATION...THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO 60 KT. FURTHER STRENGTHENING SEEMS
LIKELY WITH LIGHT SHEAR AND WARM WATER IN THE PATH OF THE STORM FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR REMAINS LOW...
HENRIETTE WILL BE HEADING INTO MORE STABLE AIR AND ACROSS COOLER
WATERS...WHICH SHOULD START A WEAKENING TREND. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...RELYING ON A BLEND OF THE
TREND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

THE LATEST MICROWAVE FIXES SHOW THAT HENRIETTE IS MOVING FASTER AND
HAS TURNED TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...305/10. THIS GENERAL TRACK IS
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE THE CYCLONE MOVES AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO BUILD TO THE NORTHWEST OF HENRIETTE AFTER THAT TIME...CAUSING
THE STORM TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST WITHIN A FEW DAYS. THIS SCENARIO
IS WELL SUPPORTED BY THE TRACK GUIDANCE AND VERY LITTLE CHANGE WAS
MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE LATEST NHC FORECAST LIES CLOSE
TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 13.5N 130.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 14.4N 131.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 15.6N 132.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 16.6N 134.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 17.3N 136.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 17.9N 139.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 10/0000Z 17.1N 144.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 11/0000Z 17.0N 149.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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1052. JLPR2
1998 with four active hurricanes.



And 1995 with three active systems and 2 TW that would ultimately develop into Karen and Luis and considering this year's CV season is supposed to be active we could see something very similar as we head into September.

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072013
800 PM PDT MON AUG 05 2013

THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER BECAME PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE
MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ALTHOUGH
THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN PULSATING...SOME BANDING
FEATURES HAVE BEEN TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE CIRCULATION. THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH
A DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW
THE SYSTEM DISSIPATING DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. INDEED...THE
STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL LGEM MODEL SHOWS GIL REGAINING TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH. ALTHOUGH THIS IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBLE SCENARIO...THE NHC
FORECAST IS MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN THAT AND MERELY SHOWS GIL
MAINTAINING TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS AS A 30-KT DEPRESSION THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST
HWRF MODEL FORECAST.

LATEST GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE CENTER FIXES...AND A FIX FROM AN
EARLIER TRMM IMAGE...INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE IS TURNING TOWARD
THE WEST AND THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS 260/8. A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE NORTH OF GIL SHOULD BE MORE OR LESS MAINTAINED FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SHOULD CAUSE A WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE
TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...AND NOT AS FAST AS THE ECMWF
SOLUTION.

GIL HAS JUST MOVED WEST OF 140W LONGITUDE...SO THE NEXT ADVISORY
WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER. FUTURE
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON GIL CAN BE FOUND UNDER WMO HEADER WTPA32 PHFO
AND AWIPS HEADER HFOTCPCP2. FUTURE FORECAST DISCUSSIONS ON GIL CAN
BE FOUND UNDER WMO HEADER WTPA42 PHFO AND AWIPS HEADER HFOTCDCP2.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 13.4N 140.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 13.2N 141.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 13.1N 142.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 13.3N 143.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 13.6N 145.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 14.5N 148.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 10/0000Z 14.5N 152.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 11/0000Z 14.5N 155.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

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Did you see this from accuweather Link

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Quoting 1020. beell:


It's been quite the saga with this wave/trough, mlc. If you're really a glutton for punishment you can go here and read back a day or two or until you fall asleep, drooling all over yourself..

And I'm really having a little trouble finding the mid to upper level cyclonic circulation center at 19N 50W. It shows up better in a model. Barely there on wv.
You're a troublemaker Beell!
.
.
It has been funny as they've moved and shifted the pieces, looking for Waldo.
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Quoting 1046. KoritheMan:


I just don't think most people realize how quickly the switch can become flipped. It doesn't take long to catch up, even if things don't start until late.
I have to admit I fully expect for us to be 10 storms down the list by this time in October. Things have been too fortuitous in the early season, and conditions are changing for the better rather than the worse.

But we shall see.
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Quoting 1018. BahaHurican:
You said it... as it was, Nassau got lucky in that storm. Imagine the cat 5 damage if Andrew had passed directly over New Providence instead of 20 miles north... or if it had been bigger...


Would not have been pretty, I traveled to Eleuthera, Harbour Island and Spanish Wells the next day, we were unable to land because of the water covering the runway, went back the next day and everyone on Harbour Island was walking around as if shell shocked, there was not a branch left on any tree on the island.
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Quoting 1040. BahaHurican:
Third decade. I wouldn't be surprised to see some action around the 21st. I'm wondering what this Sep-Oct period is going to bring.


I just don't think most people realize how quickly the switch can become flipped. It doesn't take long to catch up, even if things don't start until late.
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Quoting 1034. Tarpville:
Although I have been lurking for a long time, I don't post much. However, after reading other peoples comments about riding out or wanting to ride out a hurricane, I figured it was a good time to post from my past experiences with hurricanes. My family and I went through Charley, Frances and Jeanne in 2004 and Wilma in 2005. I must say that none were what I would consider fun. Frances and Jeanne were the worst for my area.
For example, after Frances finally decided to leave our area of Florida, we had no electric for 8 days, and the first day after Frances left martial law was initiated and you could not even by your adult beverage of choice. This sucked, pardon my french, for a man that likes his beer. I also had to drive to Virginia to buy a generator none were available at our local stores and my wife was not happy with the heat and lack of AC. Basically, If she is not happy, you're not happy.
Approximately 2 weeks after we got our electric back after Frances , Jeanne came our way and once again we lost electric for another 8 days. At least this time we had a generator and didn't lose our food.

Although both storms and there effects were not pleasant, I would fear if I left my home I would have a hard time getting back directly after storm and looters would pillage through the rest of our belongings. Unfortunately, I don't have the means to pack up all of our personally belongings to take with us.


I don't think anyone would deny that the aftermath of a storm isn't exciting in the slightest. I've been there and done that as well.

But there's this certain thrill of being lambasted by hurricane force winds and pounding rain that I don't think words can adequately express.

Thankfully there hasn't been any mud-flinging or name calling in today's discussion like there usually is, which is good. I don't think I am evil for wanting a hurricane; I might be "crazy" according to some of you, but that's something I can live with being called. :)

Overall, people have their different niches. I have no desire to see homes flattened or people killed, but at the same time, my ideal world is not one where the sun shines and the birds sing. That's dreadfully dull to me, and hurricanes liven things up.

Incidentally, that's also why I'd never be able to live in places like southern California or Hawaii, because barring exceptionally rare occasions, the dominant weather in those areas is slumber-inducing. :P
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Quoting Speeky:
Um, guys.... Look at this:



I posted the same about 100 comments ago
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Atlantic becoming more favorable everyday as upper ridge begins to take over. Its now trying to extend into the Eastern Caribbean. The TUTT is expected to move west will be replaced by an expand upper ridge.

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1041. yoboi
Quoting 1034. Tarpville:
Although I have been lurking for a long time, I don't post much. However, after reading other peoples comments about riding out or wanting to ride out a hurricane, I figured it was a good time to post from my past experiences with hurricanes. My family and I went through Charley, Frances and Jeanne in 2004 and Wilma in 2005. I must say that none were what I would consider fun. Frances and Jeanne were the worst for my area.
For example, after Frances finally decided to leave our area of Florida, we had no electric for 8 days, and the first day after Frances left martial law was initiated and you could not even by your adult beverage of choice. This sucked, pardon my french, for a man that likes his beer. I also had to drive to Virginia to buy a generator none were available at our local stores and my wife was not happy with the heat and lack of AC. Basically, If she is not happy, you're not happy.
Approximately 2 weeks after we got our electric back after Frances , Jeanne came our way and once again we lost electric for another 8 days. At least this time we had a generator and didn't lose our food.

Although both storms and there effects were not pleasant, I would fear if I left my home I would have a hard time getting back directly after storm and looters would pillage through the rest of our belongings. Unfortunately, I don't have the means to pack up all of our personally belongings to take with us.



Living on the louisiana coast I have been thru a few canes myself........I learned that after consuming a few bottles of everclear things seemed to get better.....
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2526
Quoting 1038. KoritheMan:
Still convinced things aren't going to get going in earnest until the fourth week of August.
Third decade. I wouldn't be surprised to see some action around the 21st. I'm wondering what this Sep-Oct period is going to bring.
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1039. JLPR2
If it weren't for the dry air, conditions would be very favorable for the spins till 65W.



Also, notice the TUTT pulling moisture from the Bahamas into the Caribbean.
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Still convinced things aren't going to get going in earnest until the fourth week of August.
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this storm keep going on!!
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Quoting 1035. hurricanes2018:
nice spin here!


Lol more like a closed spin!
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nice spin here!
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Although I have been lurking for a long time, I don't post much. However, after reading other peoples comments about riding out or wanting to ride out a hurricane, I figured it was a good time to post from my past experiences with hurricanes. My family and I went through Charley, Frances and Jeanne in 2004 and Wilma in 2005. I must say that none were what I would consider fun. Frances and Jeanne were the worst for my area.
For example, after Frances finally decided to leave our area of Florida, we had no electric for 8 days, and the first day after Frances left martial law was initiated and you could not even by your adult beverage of choice. This sucked, pardon my french, for a man that likes his beer. I also had to drive to Virginia to buy a generator none were available at our local stores and my wife was not happy with the heat and lack of AC. Basically, If she is not happy, you're not happy.
Approximately 2 weeks after we got our electric back after Frances , Jeanne came our way and once again we lost electric for another 8 days. At least this time we had a generator and didn't lose our food.

Although both storms and there effects were not pleasant, I would fear if I left my home I would have a hard time getting back directly after storm and looters would pillage through the rest of our belongings. Unfortunately, I don't have the means to pack up all of our personally belongings to take with us.
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That wave maybe something once it crosses 50W if anything it will provide some jolts of energy to the ITCZ maybe that why the GFS is showing a dip in atmospheric pressure across the MDR in about 3 days or so.
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Quoting 1031. Speeky:
Um, guys.... Look at this:


330 hours out??? Not a big deal that is in dream land.
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1031. Speeky
Um, guys.... Look at this:

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Watching for development in the next 5 to 7 days
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Quoting 1023. Tropicsweatherpr:


Look at that big black area in Central Africa.
I was looking at how clear it was everywhere else over the ATL, north and south, aside from the ITCZ...
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some webcam shots from the Belgium coastline.

Courtesy of
Stormhunter-NL
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Quoting 1023. Tropicsweatherpr:


Look at that big black area in Central Africa.


Preparing the conveyor.... or the train station.... batch production....

Look at the one on the Indian ocean... Soon the SAL will be blocked by those strong waves
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1026. JLPR2
Vort Max moving west to the coast is really firing up the ITCZ.





Should be moving off the Continent in the next day or so, a low rider too.
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1025. beell
Quoting 1022. moonlightcowboy:



Oh, no! It's Monday, brain way too tired for that. I can barely handle the pretty little loops! ;)


Good choice. I think we're safe for the evening.
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Quoting 1019. sunlinepr:


Look at that big black area in Central Africa.
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Quoting 1020. beell:


It's been quite the saga with this wave/trough, mlc. If you're really a glutton for punishment you can go here and read back a day or two or until you fall asleep, drooling all over yourself..

And I'm really having a little trouble finding the mid to upper level cyclonic circulation center at 19N 50W.



Oh, no! It's Monday, brain way too tired for that. I can barely handle the pretty little loops! ;)
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Up to now...

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1020. beell
Quoting 1009. moonlightcowboy:



Whoa! Beell, I'm glad you can interpret discussionese! ;) Whew! What a tough language! I read that thing three times before putting a wet towel over my overheating head.

Ok, upper level trough over a tropical wave over a surface through. Why didn't they just say so? ;P


It's been quite the saga with this wave/trough, mlc. If you're really a glutton for punishment you can go here and read back a day or two or until you fall asleep, drooling all over yourself..

And I'm really having a little trouble finding the mid to upper level cyclonic circulation center at 19N 50W. It shows up better in a model. Barely there on wv.
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Drag this Image to a new tab.... Then click on it
Click on the wave on the Indian Ocean...

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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