Hurricanes and Climate Change: Huge Dangers, Huge Unknowns

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:57 AM GMT on August 05, 2013

Share this Blog
74
+

Hurricane Sandy's enormous $65 billion price tag put that great storm in third place for the most expensive weather-related disaster in U.S. (and world) history, and six of the ten most expensive U.S. weather-related disasters since 1980 have been hurricanes. Thus, how the strongest hurricanes may be affected due a changing climate is a topic of critical concern. Since hurricanes are heat engines that extract heat energy from the oceans to power themselves, hurricane scientists are confident that the very strongest storms will get stronger by the end of the century, when Earth's land and ocean temperatures are expected to warm 2 - 3°C, to levels unmatched since the Eemian Era, 115,000 years ago. Computer modeling work consistently indicates that greenhouse warming will cause the globally averaged intensity of tropical cyclones to shift towards stronger storms, with intensity increases of 2–11% by 2100. But hurricanes are fussy creations, and are sensitive to wind shear and dry air. Although the strongest storms should get stronger when "perfect storm" conditions are present, these "perfect storm" conditions may become less frequent in the future, due to the presence of higher wind shear, altered atmospheric circulation patterns, or more dry air at mid levels of the atmosphere. Indeed, the climate models used to formulate the 2007 IPCC report suggested that we might see the strongest hurricanes getting stronger, but a decrease in the total number of hurricanes in the Atlantic (and worldwide) later this century. However, the latest set of models used to formulate the 2013 IPCC report left open the possibility that we might see in increase in the total number of hurricanes, and and increase in their intensity. Given the conflicting model results, we really don't know how global warming will affect the number of hurricanes and their intensity, but we run the risk of making one of humanity's greatest scourges worse.


Figure 1. The list of most expensive U.S. weather-related disasters since 1980 is dominated by hurricanes.

Climate models and hurricane frequency
The database we have on historical hurricanes does not extend far enough into the past and is not of high enough quality to make many judgements on how human-caused climate change may be affecting these great storms. A landmark 2010 review paper, "Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change", authored by ten top hurricane scientists concluded that the U.S. has not seen any long-term increase in landfalling tropical storms and hurricanes, and that "it remains uncertain whether past changes in tropical cyclone activity have exceeded the variability expected from natural causes" (tropical cyclone is the generic term which encompasses tropical depressions, tropical storms, hurricanes, and typhoons.) Based in part on modeling studies using climate models run for the 2007 IPCC report, the scientists concluded that "it is likely that global mean tropical cyclone frequency will either decrease or remain unchanged owing to greenhouse warming." For example, one of the modeling studies the review paper quoted, Knutson et al. (2008), "Simulated reduction in Atlantic hurricane frequency under twenty-first-century warming conditions", projected a decrease in Atlantic tropical storms by 27% and hurricanes by 18% by the end of the century. An important reason that their model predicted these decreases was due to a predicted increase in wind shear. As I explain in my wind shear tutorial, a large change of wind speed with height over a hurricane creates a shearing force that tends to tear the storm apart. The amount of wind shear is critical in determining whether a hurricane can form or survive.

But a July 2013 study by MIT's Dr. Kerry Emanuel, "Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century", challenged this result. Dr. Emanuel argued that tropical cyclones are likely to become both stronger and more frequent as the climate continues to warm. This increase is most likely to occur in Western North Pacific, with smaller increases in the Atlantic. Dr. Emanuel took output from six newer higher-resolution climate models used to formulate the 2013 IPCC report, and used the output to drive a high-resolution hurricane model. The simulations found that the global frequency of tropical cyclones would increase by 11% to 40% by 2100, with intensity increases as well. The combined effects produced a global increase in Category 3 and stronger hurricanes of 40%. The behavior of these strongest hurricanes is critical, since they do most of the damage we observe. Over the past century, Category 3 - 5 hurricanes accounted for 85% of US hurricane damage, despite representing only 24% of U.S. landfalling storms. Category 4 and 5 hurricanes made up only 6% of all U.S. landfalls, but accounted for 48% of all U.S. damage (if normalized to account for increases in U.S. population and wealth, see Pielke et al., 2008.)


Figure 2. Projected changes in tropical cyclone track density during the 2006-2100 period compared to the 1950-2005 period, using output from six climate models included in the 2013 IPCC report. The global frequency of tropical cyclones is predicted to increase by 11% to 40%, with the largest changes occurring in the Northwest Pacific off the coast of Japan. Smaller increases are predicted for the Atlantic and near Australia. Image credit: Kerry Emanuel, "Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century", Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, July 8, 2013, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1301293110.

However, a study by Knutson et al. (2013), using the same latest-generation climate models as used by Emanuel (2013), but using the output from the models to drive a different high-resolution hurricane model, found a 20% decrease in Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes by 2100. Two other 2013 studies by Villarini et al. and Camargo, also using output from the 2013 IPCC models, found essentially no change in Atlantic tropical cyclones. The reason for the differences, lies, in part, with how much global warming is assumed in the studies. Dr. Emanuel's study, which found an increase in tropical cyclone activity, assumed a worst-case warming situation (RCP 8.5), following the "business as usual" emissions path humanity is currently on. The Knutson et al. study, which found a decrease of 20% in Atlantic tropical cyclones, used a scenario (RCP 4.5) where it was assumed humans will wise up and cause about half of the worst-case greenhouse warming. The study found found "marginally significant" increases in Atlantic Category 4 and 5 hurricanes of 39% - 45% by 2100. These dramatically different results give credence to Dr. Emanuel statement at the end of his paper, "the response of tropical cyclones to projected climate change will remain uncertain for some time to come." The 2013 IPCC report also emphasized the high amount of uncertainty in how climate change might affect hurricanes, stating that there was "low confidence" that we have observed any increases in intense tropical cyclones due to human causes. However, since the 1970s, it is virtually certain (99 - 100% chance) that the frequency and intensity of hurricanes and tropical storms in the North Atlantic has increased, and there is medium confidence that a reduction in small air pollution particles (aerosols) over the North Atlantic caused part of this effect. The report's forecast for the future stated that it is "more likely than not" (50 - 100% chance) that human-caused climate change will cause a substantial increase in intense tropical cyclones in some ocean basins by 2100, with the Western North Pacific and Atlantic being at particular risk. Also, there will likely (66 - 100% chance) be an increase in both global mean tropical cyclone maximum wind speed and rain rates by 2100, and more likely than not (50 - 100% chance) that the increase in the most intense tropical cyclones will be larger than 10% in some basins.


Figure 3. Expected change in Atlantic Category 4 and 5 hurricanes per decade expected by the year 2100, according to Knutson et al. (2013), "Dynamical Downscaling Projections of 21st Century Atlantic Hurricane Activity: CMIP3 and CMIP5 Model-based Scenarios." This research used the latest generation of climate models from the 2013 IPCC report, and found "marginally significant" increases in Atlantic Category 4 and 5 hurricanes of 39% - 45% by 2100.

Commentary
Hurricane damages are currently doubling every ten years without the effect of climate change, according to Pielke et al., 2008. This is primarily due to the increasing population along the coast and increased wealth of the population. The authors theorize that the Great Miami Hurricane of 1926, a Category 4 monster that made a direct hit on Miami Beach, would have caused about $150 billion in damage had it hit in 2005. Thus, by 2015, the same hurricane would do $300 billion in damage, and $600 billion by 2025. This is without considering the impact that accelerating sea level rise will have on storm surge damages. Global sea level rise over the past decade has been about double what it was in the 20th century, and the rate of sea level rise is expected to increase further in the coming decades. Storm surge does the majority of damage in major hurricanes, and storm surges riding on top of higher sea levels are going to do a lot more damage in the coming decades. If we toss in the (controversial) increases in Category 3 and stronger storms like Dr. Emanuel suggests may occur, the hurricane damage math gets very impressive. We can also add onto that the relatively non-controversial increase in tropical cyclone rainfall of 20% expected by 2100, which will sharply increase damages due to fresh water river flooding. It is controversial whether or not we are already be seeing an increase in heavy precipitation events associated with tropical cyclones in the U.S., though. The total number of daily rainfall events exceeding 2" associated with tropical cyclones in the Southeast U.S. on a century time scale has not changed significantly, according to Groisman et al., 2004. But a 2010 study by Kunkel et al., "Recent increases in U.S. heavy precipitation associated with tropical cyclones", found that the number of Southeast U.S. tropical cyclone heavy precipitation events, defined as 1-in-5-year events, more than doubled between 1994 - 2008, compared to the long-term average from 1895 - 2008.


Figure 4. Time series of the 15-year running average (plotted at the end point of the 15-yr blocks) of a Tropical Cyclone Heavy Precipitation Index (red) and 15-year running average of U.S. landfalling hurricanes (blue). Note that there has been no long-term increase in U.S. landfalling hurricanes, but there has been a sharp increase in extreme rainfall events associated with landfalling tropical cyclones--the kind of rainfall events most likely to cause damaging flooding. Image credit: Kunkel et al. (2010), "Recent increases in U.S. heavy precipitation associated with tropical cyclones", Geophysical Research Letters.

It is essential that we limit coastal development in vulnerable coastal areas, particularly along barrier islands, to reduce some of the astronomical price tags hurricanes are going to be causing in the future. Adoption and enforcement of strict building standards is also a must, as well as more reforms to the government's National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), which subsidizes development in high-risk coastal regions that private insurers won't touch. NFIP is now $25 - 30 billion in the red, thanks to Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Sandy. Reform of NFIP is already underway. In 2012, before Sandy hit, Congress passed the Biggert-Waters Flood Insurance Reform Act, which requires people with NFIP policies to pay large premium increases of about 25% per year over the next five years. Naturally, this move has caused major controversy.

References
Camargo, S., (2013), "Global and regional aspects of tropical cyclone activity in the CMIP5 models," J. Climate.

Emanuel, K.A., 2013, "Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century", PNAS, July 8, 2013, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1301293110

Groisman, Pavel Ya, et al., "Contemporary changes of the hydrological cycle over the contiguous United States: Trends derived from in situ observations," Journal of Hydrometeorology 5.1 (2004): 64-85.

Knutson et al., 2010, "Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change", Nature Geoscience 3, 157 - 163, Published online: 21 February 2010 | doi:10.1038/ngeo779

Knutson et al., 2013, Dynamical Downscaling Projections of 21st Century Atlantic Hurricane Activity: CMIP3 and CMIP5 Model-based Scenarios, Journal of Climate 2013 ; e-View
doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00539.1

Pielke, R.A, et al., 2008, "Normalized Hurricane Damage in the United States: 1900 - 2005," Natural Hazards Review, DOI:10.1061/ASCE1527-6988(2008)9:1(29)

Villarini, G, and G.A. Vecchi, 2012, "Twenty-first-century projections of North Atlantic tropical storms from CMIP5 models," Nature Clim. Change 2:604–607.

Related posts
Global warming and the frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes: model results, my 2010 blog post.

Climate Central's analysis of the new 2013 Kerry Emanuel paper.

Goodbye, Miami: Jeff Goodell's sobering 2013 article in Rolling Stone on the challenges Miami faces due to sea level rise and hurricanes.


What the official climate assessments say about climate change and hurricanes
The 2013 IPCC report gives “low confidence”--a 20% chance--that we have observed a human-caused increase in intense hurricanes in some parts of the world. This is a reduction in odds from the 2007 report, which said that it was more likely than not (greater than 50% chance.) The IPCC likely took note of a landmark 2010 review paper, "Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change", authored by ten top hurricane scientists, which concluded that the U.S. had not seen any long-term increase in landfalling tropical storms and hurricanes, and that "it remains uncertain whether past changes in tropical cyclone activity have exceeded the variability expected from natural causes." The 2013 IPCC report predicts that there is a greater than 50% chance (more likely than not) that we will see a human-caused increase in intense hurricanes by 2100 in some regions; this is also a reduction from the 2007 report, which said this would be likely (66% chance or higher.)

The May 2014 United States National Climate Assessment found that “The intensity, frequency, and duration of North Atlantic hurricanes, as well as the frequency of the strongest (Category 4 and 5) hurricanes, have all increased since the early 1980s. The relative contributions of human and natural causes to these increases are still uncertain. Hurricane-associated storm intensity and rainfall rates are projected to increase as the climate continues to warm.”

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1219 - 1169

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52Blog Index

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1218. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11
15:00 PM JST August 6 2013
================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In South China Sea

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1002 hPa) located at 15.3N 112.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving northwest at 9 knots.

Dvorak intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 18.8N 108.4E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Gulf of Tonkin
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Gil has definitely improved over the past several hours.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Mixed bag

Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good Morning class.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Don't get me wrong....tho....that can still all change but as long as we get these heavy troughs it will cause windshear. That could still all change yet and still meet the 15 forecast but it that cooler weather hangs on, I doubt we see the 15 storms forecast.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Gil is a tropical storm again.

Really out this time.

EP, 07, 2013080606, , BEST, 0, 133N, 1406W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 35, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 30, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, GIL, D,
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1207. KoritheMan:

I guess I did kind of forget the report from the NCDC that said that temperatures over most of the contiguous US for below normal.

But that has nothing to do with whether or not we're going to meet preseason predictions.


Of course it does....LOOK at the Windshear caused by the Troughs. You kidding!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1207. KoritheMan:

I guess I did kind of forget the report from the NCDC that said that temperatures over most of the contiguous US for below normal.

But that has nothing to do with whether or not we're going to meet preseason predictions.

It doesn't, and I didn't suggest it did. =P
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1205. KoritheMan:

I don't see where everybody gets this idea that the weather over the US is so cold. The July 500 mb pattern does not support that.
Quoting 1206. TropicalAnalystwx13:




Thanks for the Graphic TA...Kori....their you go!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Quoting 1206. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I guess I did kind of forget the report from the NCDC that said that temperatures over most of the contiguous US for below normal.

But that has nothing to do with whether or not we're going to meet preseason predictions.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1205. KoritheMan:

I don't see where everybody gets this idea that the weather over the US is so cold. The July 500 mb pattern does not support that.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Quoting 1203. TampaSpin:
I would suggest we might not see as many Hurricanes this year than was previously forecast. We had this conversation on my FB page. Yes, we can still get to 15 without any problems. But, thus far this year is the year of SAL with very dry Dusty air in the MDR leaving the Atlantic somewhat cooler than some years. Also, ULL's have also dominated the Western side of the Atlantic. Let me remind all that the Early arrival of WINTER in the Artic could easily cause many troughs thus creating a lot of ULL with wind Shear. Again, I am only pointing out the reasons we might not see the forecast of 15 named storms.
I don't see where everybody gets this idea that the weather over the US is so cold. The July 500 mb pattern does not support that.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1202. Speeky:


I completely forgot to take the area where the storm developed into consideration. Your response is greatly appreciated. My original post was my skeptical mind typing its stream of thought. I am hopeful there will be an active season this year but I am also doubtful, but we shall see.



I have considered the Atlantic's Lull in activity, and I do believe this season does have a decent chance of doing the same as the 3 years before it. However the total number of storms in the East Pacific is kind of tripping me up.

I'm just knit picking:

In 2004, The east pacific was active in July and August with a total of 4 by this date, but it quieted down in September and October, Just when the Atlantic started getting active. That could very well happen this year. But I have no idea!

In 2010, East pacific was somewhat active in May and June with total of 5 storms by this date but then it quieted down to a record low pace for August, September and October. While in the Atlantic we a near record high pace for the month of August, with 8 storms with in that month. That could also happen. but it's a wait and see.


An active Pacific side is usually a Lull in the Atlantic. Seldom do we ever see both sides active at the same time. SELDOM does that happen!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I would suggest we might not see as many Hurricanes this year than was previously forecast. We had this conversation on my FB page. Yes, we can still get to 15 without any problems. But, thus far this year is the year of SAL with very dry Dusty air in the MDR leaving the Atlantic somewhat cooler than some years. Also, ULL's have also dominated the Western side of the Atlantic. Let me remind all that the Early arrival of WINTER in the Artic could easily cause many troughs thus creating a lot of ULL with wind Shear. Again, I am only pointing out the reasons we might not see the forecast of 15 named storms.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1202. Speeky
Quoting 1195. KoritheMan:

I'm not.

Four named storms is still well ahead of schedule, even if we're behind some more recent years.

Also, your comparison to 1997 is flawed because every single storm that had developed by this point during that year all originated from baroclinic sources in subtropical latitudes. This year, all of our storms, weak as they were, have originated from purely tropical sources. That's a sign that the MDR is more favorable. There are hints in the models that things will awaken soon.


I completely forgot to take the area where the storm developed into consideration. Your response is greatly appreciated. My original post was my skeptical mind typing its stream of thought. I am hopeful there will be an active season this year but I am also doubtful, but we shall see.

Quoting 1196. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Why would anybody? We've seen four tropical cyclones this season, two of which formed east of the Leeward Islands in July. Every season goes through a lull in activity, and this is one of them. 2010 didn't see "Danielle" until August 21. 2004 was on "Bonnie" and ended up with 15 named storms.


I have considered the Atlantic's Lull in activity, and I do believe this season does have a decent chance of doing the same as the 3 years before it. However the total number of storms in the East Pacific is kind of tripping me up.

I'm just knit picking:

In 2004, The east pacific was active in July and August with a total of 4 by this date, but it quieted down in September and October, Just when the Atlantic started getting active. That could very well happen this year. But I have no idea!

In 2010, East pacific was somewhat active in May and June with total of 5 storms by this date but then it quieted down to a record low pace for August, September and October. While in the Atlantic we a near record high pace for the month of August, with 8 storms with in that month. That could also happen. but it's a wait and see.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good night guys.

Here is my blog entry from yesterday afternoon
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1198. JerryEl:
Hey Doc, What happened to the "classic" Web view? No warning...Just gone.

Hmm...

JerryEL
Member Since: March 12, 2002
Posts: 0
Comments: 3

where have you been all this time

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Henriette up to hurricane status in the 06z update.

EP, 08, 2013080606, , BEST, 0, 135N, 1305W, 65, 991, HU
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1198. JerryEl
Hey Doc, What happened to the "classic" Web view? No warning...Just gone.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1195. KoritheMan:

I'm not.

Four named storms is still well ahead of schedule, even if we're behind some more recent years.

Also, your comparison to 1997 is flawed because every single storm that had developed by this point during that year all originated from baroclinic sources in subtropical latitudes. This year, all of our storms, weak as they were, have originated from purely tropical sources. That's a sign that the MDR is more favorable. There are hints in the models that things will awaken soon.
Quoting 1196. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Why would anybody? We've seen four tropical cyclones this season, two of which formed east of the Leeward Islands in July. Every season goes through a lull in activity, and this is one of them. 2010 didn't see "Danielle" until August 21. 2004 was on "Bonnie" and ended up with 15 named storms.


thank you and thank you
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1194. Speeky:
Is there anyone else willing to start second guessing all the preseason forecasts?

Why would anybody? We've seen four tropical cyclones this season, two of which formed east of the Leeward Islands in July. Every season goes through a lull in activity, and this is one of them. 2010 didn't see "Danielle" until August 21. 2004 was on "Bonnie" and ended up with 15 named storms.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Quoting 1194. Speeky:
Is there anyone else willing to start second guessing all the preseason forecasts?



I'm not.

Four named storms is still well ahead of schedule, even if we're behind some more recent years.

Also, your comparison to 1997 is flawed because every single storm that had developed by this point during that year all originated from baroclinic sources in subtropical latitudes. This year, all of our storms, weak as they were, have originated from purely tropical sources. That's a sign that the MDR is more favorable. There are hints in the models that things will awaken soon.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1194. Speeky
Is there anyone else willing to start second guessing all the preseason forecasts?

The Atlantic Ocean is ahead of schedule but no where close to the major seasons we have seen the past:

Here is a list of the top 10 most active hurricane season compared to our current date.

(keep in mind we currently have 4 storms)

1. 2005 had their 9th storm by now.
2. 1933 had their 5th storm by now
3. 1887 had their 5th storm by now
4. 1995 had their 6th storm by now
5. 2010 had their 4th storm by now
6. 2011 had their 5th storm by now
7. 2012 had their 6th storm by now
8. 1969 had their 1st storm by now
9. 1936 had their 6th storm by now
10. 2003 had their 4th storm by now

Even though, active early season is not a prerequisite for an active hurricane season it is definitely beneficial. There have been seasons in the past that have started active but did not remain active. I believe this season might begin to do that. But here's why:

The east pacific is very active right now. The East Pacific has pumped out 8 storms so far. The most active season (1992) had 10 storms by this date.

The Atlantic and East Pacific relationship is strange, when the East Pacific is active the Atlantic starts off active but gets quiet, and vice versa.

A great example of this would the year 1997:
By this day (August 6th) The East Pacific had a total of 8 storms. The Atlantic had 6. Everything was going well. However, by the time the season had ended the East Pacific came out on top with a total of 19 named storms 9 hurricanes 7 major hurricanes and 2 category 5s. While the Atlantic had a total of 8 named storms 2 hurricanes and 1 major hurricane.

Perhaps I'm assuming too early but all the dry air over the Atlantic is foreboding to me.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Issued: Aug 05, 2013 8:00 pm HST

For the central north Pacific, between 140°W and 180.

1. The Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu Hawaii will soon begin issuing advisories on tropical depression Gil, located about 1065 miles east-southeast of Hilo Hawaii, under AWIPS header TCPCP2 and WMO header WTPA32 PHFO. The first bulletin will be issued at 1100 pm HST tonight.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected through Wednesday evening.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Quoting 1190. HadesGodWyvern:


haha

was wondering if I'd see a final fantasy joke with that name.

should have said keep fighting enemies so you'd never run out of gil though.
Gil did keep fighting enemies.

He fought easterly shear, which had 50,000 HP, and he also battled dry air, which had roughly 15,000 HP.

Both dropped prodigious amounts of Gil. ;)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1190. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)


He won't run out of Gil.

Now go play Final Fantasy so you can appreciate that joke.


haha

was wondering if I'd see a final fantasy joke with that name.

should have said keep fighting enemies so you'd never run out of gil though.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Quoting 1186. MSAussie:



I do get cranky though when I see "I wanna be in a cat 5" That is sheer stupidity. When I see posts like that or people saying that I always want to ask them....would you intentionally walk into an f5 tornado??

That's actually never bothered me.

So you know what I do? I shake their hand and say "good luck". :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1185. wxgeek723:


LOL think my respect for you just doubled Kori.


I've only cracked that joke like four times over the last two days. Where have you been bruh?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
First time I've seen any purple in the GOM in over a month.

NOAA TCFP
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1179. KoritheMan:
After today's discussion about wanting to see a hurricane, I think we can all agree that it's a good thing if a tropical cyclone does not make landfall.

I possess this really weird contradiction of thoughts and feelings. On one hand, I want very much to experience a decent hurricane in any given year, because it's my passion; to that end, it's very much against my personal interests if a hurricane avoids land. But on the other hand, there is the more human side of me that deep down feels relieved when a landfall, particularly a powerful one, is averted. I'm sure a lot of us who want to experience hurricanes feel this way, we just can't quite put it into words properly, something I hope I have managed to do here.

tl;dr: experiencing hurricanes is exciting, at least to me. But I still consider it a good thing when one doesn't hit land. Oxymoron, I know, but meh.


Actually I think you articulated it just fine Kori.

Heck I would be lying if I said I wasn't in awe as well. Do I want one to come here? nope Do I want one to come ashore anywhere? nope. But, that being said, you cannot stop mother nature and she goes where she wants. If one is heading in there is not a dam thing anyone can do about it.

I do get cranky though when I see "I wanna be in a cat 5" That is sheer stupidity. When I see posts like that or people saying that I always want to ask them....would you intentionally walk into an f5 tornado??

I have seen first hand the destruction that a Katrina type storm can do and I have seen the destruction of a "mere" tropical storm. Any storm can be dangerous but yes.....its still awe inspiring and it always will be, at least to me
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1182. KoritheMan:


He won't run out of Gil.

Now go play Final Fantasy so you can appreciate that joke.


LOL think my respect for you just doubled Kori.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1181. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Well on this run the CMC is not playing around with the sheer size of the Cape-Verde storm:


you got that right
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1179. KoritheMan:
After today's discussion about wanting to see a hurricane, I think we can all agree that it's a good thing if a tropical cyclone does not make landfall.

I possess this really weird contradiction of thoughts and feelings. On one hand, I want very much to experience a decent hurricane in any given year, because it's my passion; to that end, it's very much against my personal interests if a hurricane avoids land. But on the other hand, there is the more human side of me that deep down feels relieved when a landfall, particularly a powerful one, is averted. I'm sure a lot of us who want to experience hurricanes feel this way, we just can't quite put it into words properly, something I hope I have managed to do here.

tl;dr: experiencing hurricanes is exciting, at least to me. But I still consider it a good thing when one doesn't hit land. Oxymoron, I know, but meh.


I wouldn't mind being in a Category 1 or 2 with low surge. I've been in many 80 mph+ thunderstorms in Missouri.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8007
Quoting 1180. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Gil may be strengthening and is likely a tropical storm again.



He won't run out of Gil.

Now go play Final Fantasy so you can appreciate that joke.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Well on this run the CMC is not playing around with the sheer size of the Cape-Verde storm:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Gil may be strengthening and is likely a tropical storm again.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
After today's discussion about wanting to see a hurricane, I think we can all agree that it's a good thing if a tropical cyclone does not make landfall.

I possess this really weird contradiction of thoughts and feelings. On one hand, I want very much to experience a decent hurricane in any given year, because it's my passion; to that end, it's very much against my personal interests if a hurricane avoids land. But on the other hand, there is the more human side of me that deep down feels relieved when a landfall, particularly a powerful one, is averted. I'm sure a lot of us who want to experience hurricanes feel this way, we just can't quite put it into words properly, something I hope I have managed to do here.

tl;dr: experiencing hurricanes is exciting, at least to me. But I still consider it a good thing when one doesn't hit land. Oxymoron, I know, but meh.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1177. GTstormChaserCaleb:
The trade winds are really beginning to slow down a sign the high pressure is weakening or shifting further north and west.




this means slow moving storm into the Caribbean a lot of bad carib storm had the same set up
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The trade winds are really beginning to slow down a sign the high pressure is weakening or shifting further north and west.



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Too bad the higher res. FIM-9 only goes out to 168 hrs. because I think it is latching onto the Tropical Wave at 53 W and bringing it into the SW Caribbean and trying to lift it north probably due to the upward motion of the MJO.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1154. AussieStorm:
Poll
Do you use the old format or the new format
1) Old
2) New

How many posts per page do you have set.
a) 50
b) 100
c) 200


I am 1 and c.


2 and A.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1170. moonlightcowboy:
INFRARED




WATER VAPOR





Area east of the Lesser Antilles may be getting more moist for our AOI.

Sure looks that way

Quoting 1172. BahaHurican:
2c
Couldn't sleep.



Lol

Quoting 1173. 789:
Lets check out north africa radar

What are you on about
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1173. 789
Lets check out north africa radar
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1157. wunderkidcayman:

2 and A
2c
Couldn't sleep.


Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22087
Quoting 1154. AussieStorm:
Poll
Do you use the old format or the new format
1) Old
2) New

How many posts per page do you have set.
a) 50
b) 100
c) 200


I am 1 and c.
1 and a
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
INFRARED




WATER VAPOR





Area east of the Lesser Antilles may be getting more moist for our AOI.
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
Quoting 1154. AussieStorm:
Poll
Do you use the old format or the new format
1) Old
2) New

How many posts per page do you have set.
a) 50
b) 100
c) 200


I am 1 and c.

2C.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1219 - 1169

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.