Hurricanes and Climate Change: Huge Dangers, Huge Unknowns

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:57 AM GMT on August 05, 2013

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Hurricane Sandy's enormous $65 billion price tag put that great storm in third place for the most expensive weather-related disaster in U.S. (and world) history, and six of the ten most expensive U.S. weather-related disasters since 1980 have been hurricanes. Thus, how the strongest hurricanes may be affected due a changing climate is a topic of critical concern. Since hurricanes are heat engines that extract heat energy from the oceans to power themselves, hurricane scientists are confident that the very strongest storms will get stronger by the end of the century, when Earth's land and ocean temperatures are expected to warm 2 - 3°C, to levels unmatched since the Eemian Era, 115,000 years ago. Computer modeling work consistently indicates that greenhouse warming will cause the globally averaged intensity of tropical cyclones to shift towards stronger storms, with intensity increases of 2–11% by 2100. But hurricanes are fussy creations, and are sensitive to wind shear and dry air. Although the strongest storms should get stronger when "perfect storm" conditions are present, these "perfect storm" conditions may become less frequent in the future, due to the presence of higher wind shear, altered atmospheric circulation patterns, or more dry air at mid levels of the atmosphere. Indeed, the climate models used to formulate the 2007 IPCC report suggested that we might see the strongest hurricanes getting stronger, but a decrease in the total number of hurricanes in the Atlantic (and worldwide) later this century. However, the latest set of models used to formulate the 2013 IPCC report left open the possibility that we might see in increase in the total number of hurricanes, and and increase in their intensity. Given the conflicting model results, we really don't know how global warming will affect the number of hurricanes and their intensity, but we run the risk of making one of humanity's greatest scourges worse.


Figure 1. The list of most expensive U.S. weather-related disasters since 1980 is dominated by hurricanes.

Climate models and hurricane frequency
The database we have on historical hurricanes does not extend far enough into the past and is not of high enough quality to make many judgements on how human-caused climate change may be affecting these great storms. A landmark 2010 review paper, "Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change", authored by ten top hurricane scientists concluded that the U.S. has not seen any long-term increase in landfalling tropical storms and hurricanes, and that "it remains uncertain whether past changes in tropical cyclone activity have exceeded the variability expected from natural causes" (tropical cyclone is the generic term which encompasses tropical depressions, tropical storms, hurricanes, and typhoons.) Based in part on modeling studies using climate models run for the 2007 IPCC report, the scientists concluded that "it is likely that global mean tropical cyclone frequency will either decrease or remain unchanged owing to greenhouse warming." For example, one of the modeling studies the review paper quoted, Knutson et al. (2008), "Simulated reduction in Atlantic hurricane frequency under twenty-first-century warming conditions", projected a decrease in Atlantic tropical storms by 27% and hurricanes by 18% by the end of the century. An important reason that their model predicted these decreases was due to a predicted increase in wind shear. As I explain in my wind shear tutorial, a large change of wind speed with height over a hurricane creates a shearing force that tends to tear the storm apart. The amount of wind shear is critical in determining whether a hurricane can form or survive.

But a July 2013 study by MIT's Dr. Kerry Emanuel, "Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century", challenged this result. Dr. Emanuel argued that tropical cyclones are likely to become both stronger and more frequent as the climate continues to warm. This increase is most likely to occur in Western North Pacific, with smaller increases in the Atlantic. Dr. Emanuel took output from six newer higher-resolution climate models used to formulate the 2013 IPCC report, and used the output to drive a high-resolution hurricane model. The simulations found that the global frequency of tropical cyclones would increase by 11% to 40% by 2100, with intensity increases as well. The combined effects produced a global increase in Category 3 and stronger hurricanes of 40%. The behavior of these strongest hurricanes is critical, since they do most of the damage we observe. Over the past century, Category 3 - 5 hurricanes accounted for 85% of US hurricane damage, despite representing only 24% of U.S. landfalling storms. Category 4 and 5 hurricanes made up only 6% of all U.S. landfalls, but accounted for 48% of all U.S. damage (if normalized to account for increases in U.S. population and wealth, see Pielke et al., 2008.)


Figure 2. Projected changes in tropical cyclone track density during the 2006-2100 period compared to the 1950-2005 period, using output from six climate models included in the 2013 IPCC report. The global frequency of tropical cyclones is predicted to increase by 11% to 40%, with the largest changes occurring in the Northwest Pacific off the coast of Japan. Smaller increases are predicted for the Atlantic and near Australia. Image credit: Kerry Emanuel, "Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century", Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, July 8, 2013, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1301293110.

However, a study by Knutson et al. (2013), using the same latest-generation climate models as used by Emanuel (2013), but using the output from the models to drive a different high-resolution hurricane model, found a 20% decrease in Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes by 2100. Two other 2013 studies by Villarini et al. and Camargo, also using output from the 2013 IPCC models, found essentially no change in Atlantic tropical cyclones. The reason for the differences, lies, in part, with how much global warming is assumed in the studies. Dr. Emanuel's study, which found an increase in tropical cyclone activity, assumed a worst-case warming situation (RCP 8.5), following the "business as usual" emissions path humanity is currently on. The Knutson et al. study, which found a decrease of 20% in Atlantic tropical cyclones, used a scenario (RCP 4.5) where it was assumed humans will wise up and cause about half of the worst-case greenhouse warming. The study found found "marginally significant" increases in Atlantic Category 4 and 5 hurricanes of 39% - 45% by 2100. These dramatically different results give credence to Dr. Emanuel statement at the end of his paper, "the response of tropical cyclones to projected climate change will remain uncertain for some time to come." The 2013 IPCC report also emphasized the high amount of uncertainty in how climate change might affect hurricanes, stating that there was "low confidence" that we have observed any increases in intense tropical cyclones due to human causes. However, since the 1970s, it is virtually certain (99 - 100% chance) that the frequency and intensity of hurricanes and tropical storms in the North Atlantic has increased, and there is medium confidence that a reduction in small air pollution particles (aerosols) over the North Atlantic caused part of this effect. The report's forecast for the future stated that it is "more likely than not" (50 - 100% chance) that human-caused climate change will cause a substantial increase in intense tropical cyclones in some ocean basins by 2100, with the Western North Pacific and Atlantic being at particular risk. Also, there will likely (66 - 100% chance) be an increase in both global mean tropical cyclone maximum wind speed and rain rates by 2100, and more likely than not (50 - 100% chance) that the increase in the most intense tropical cyclones will be larger than 10% in some basins.


Figure 3. Expected change in Atlantic Category 4 and 5 hurricanes per decade expected by the year 2100, according to Knutson et al. (2013), "Dynamical Downscaling Projections of 21st Century Atlantic Hurricane Activity: CMIP3 and CMIP5 Model-based Scenarios." This research used the latest generation of climate models from the 2013 IPCC report, and found "marginally significant" increases in Atlantic Category 4 and 5 hurricanes of 39% - 45% by 2100.

Commentary
Hurricane damages are currently doubling every ten years without the effect of climate change, according to Pielke et al., 2008. This is primarily due to the increasing population along the coast and increased wealth of the population. The authors theorize that the Great Miami Hurricane of 1926, a Category 4 monster that made a direct hit on Miami Beach, would have caused about $150 billion in damage had it hit in 2005. Thus, by 2015, the same hurricane would do $300 billion in damage, and $600 billion by 2025. This is without considering the impact that accelerating sea level rise will have on storm surge damages. Global sea level rise over the past decade has been about double what it was in the 20th century, and the rate of sea level rise is expected to increase further in the coming decades. Storm surge does the majority of damage in major hurricanes, and storm surges riding on top of higher sea levels are going to do a lot more damage in the coming decades. If we toss in the (controversial) increases in Category 3 and stronger storms like Dr. Emanuel suggests may occur, the hurricane damage math gets very impressive. We can also add onto that the relatively non-controversial increase in tropical cyclone rainfall of 20% expected by 2100, which will sharply increase damages due to fresh water river flooding. It is controversial whether or not we are already be seeing an increase in heavy precipitation events associated with tropical cyclones in the U.S., though. The total number of daily rainfall events exceeding 2" associated with tropical cyclones in the Southeast U.S. on a century time scale has not changed significantly, according to Groisman et al., 2004. But a 2010 study by Kunkel et al., "Recent increases in U.S. heavy precipitation associated with tropical cyclones", found that the number of Southeast U.S. tropical cyclone heavy precipitation events, defined as 1-in-5-year events, more than doubled between 1994 - 2008, compared to the long-term average from 1895 - 2008.


Figure 4. Time series of the 15-year running average (plotted at the end point of the 15-yr blocks) of a Tropical Cyclone Heavy Precipitation Index (red) and 15-year running average of U.S. landfalling hurricanes (blue). Note that there has been no long-term increase in U.S. landfalling hurricanes, but there has been a sharp increase in extreme rainfall events associated with landfalling tropical cyclones--the kind of rainfall events most likely to cause damaging flooding. Image credit: Kunkel et al. (2010), "Recent increases in U.S. heavy precipitation associated with tropical cyclones", Geophysical Research Letters.

It is essential that we limit coastal development in vulnerable coastal areas, particularly along barrier islands, to reduce some of the astronomical price tags hurricanes are going to be causing in the future. Adoption and enforcement of strict building standards is also a must, as well as more reforms to the government's National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), which subsidizes development in high-risk coastal regions that private insurers won't touch. NFIP is now $25 - 30 billion in the red, thanks to Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Sandy. Reform of NFIP is already underway. In 2012, before Sandy hit, Congress passed the Biggert-Waters Flood Insurance Reform Act, which requires people with NFIP policies to pay large premium increases of about 25% per year over the next five years. Naturally, this move has caused major controversy.

References
Camargo, S., (2013), "Global and regional aspects of tropical cyclone activity in the CMIP5 models," J. Climate.

Emanuel, K.A., 2013, "Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century", PNAS, July 8, 2013, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1301293110

Groisman, Pavel Ya, et al., "Contemporary changes of the hydrological cycle over the contiguous United States: Trends derived from in situ observations," Journal of Hydrometeorology 5.1 (2004): 64-85.

Knutson et al., 2010, "Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change", Nature Geoscience 3, 157 - 163, Published online: 21 February 2010 | doi:10.1038/ngeo779

Knutson et al., 2013, Dynamical Downscaling Projections of 21st Century Atlantic Hurricane Activity: CMIP3 and CMIP5 Model-based Scenarios, Journal of Climate 2013 ; e-View
doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00539.1

Pielke, R.A, et al., 2008, "Normalized Hurricane Damage in the United States: 1900 - 2005," Natural Hazards Review, DOI:10.1061/ASCE1527-6988(2008)9:1(29)

Villarini, G, and G.A. Vecchi, 2012, "Twenty-first-century projections of North Atlantic tropical storms from CMIP5 models," Nature Clim. Change 2:604–607.

Related posts
Global warming and the frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes: model results, my 2010 blog post.

Climate Central's analysis of the new 2013 Kerry Emanuel paper.

Goodbye, Miami: Jeff Goodell's sobering 2013 article in Rolling Stone on the challenges Miami faces due to sea level rise and hurricanes.


What the official climate assessments say about climate change and hurricanes
The 2013 IPCC report gives “low confidence”--a 20% chance--that we have observed a human-caused increase in intense hurricanes in some parts of the world. This is a reduction in odds from the 2007 report, which said that it was more likely than not (greater than 50% chance.) The IPCC likely took note of a landmark 2010 review paper, "Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change", authored by ten top hurricane scientists, which concluded that the U.S. had not seen any long-term increase in landfalling tropical storms and hurricanes, and that "it remains uncertain whether past changes in tropical cyclone activity have exceeded the variability expected from natural causes." The 2013 IPCC report predicts that there is a greater than 50% chance (more likely than not) that we will see a human-caused increase in intense hurricanes by 2100 in some regions; this is also a reduction from the 2007 report, which said this would be likely (66% chance or higher.)

The May 2014 United States National Climate Assessment found that “The intensity, frequency, and duration of North Atlantic hurricanes, as well as the frequency of the strongest (Category 4 and 5) hurricanes, have all increased since the early 1980s. The relative contributions of human and natural causes to these increases are still uncertain. Hurricane-associated storm intensity and rainfall rates are projected to increase as the climate continues to warm.”

Jeff Masters

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Cool! looks like the shape of South America. :D

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Quoting 1549. opal92nwf:
I can remember other times like this when there is a lull where it is thought that cyclone activity wouldn't resume for a seemingly indefinite period of time, and then suddenly some little feature would come to the scene and become a significant storm. Heck, even Dorian wasn't really forecasted by any computer models.

I'm thinking we will probably see a storm form earlier than late August like some people are saying.


The dip in the jet stream leaves a good chances a low will enter the Gulf from the US and you never know.
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Quoting 1560. JrWeathermanFL:
Well, I'm lowering my numbers slightly to 15/6/3
. I say 18 / 8 / 5!
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1565. aquak9
Quoting 1532. GOLSUTIGERS:


No, it's in the western burbs of Chicago

ok, thanks. So, Elmhurst is NOT SouthernIllinois.
Just...kinda....confused.
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Quoting 1486. unknowncomic:
It's about that time of year for the crazy or not so crazy ideas on how to weaken or dissipate a cyclone idea. Any ideas out there?

Is this a good time to bring up tunnels?
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Quoting 1555. ncstorm:
I tell ya, the GFS got it get it together..running super slow..this will not work during an active storm heading towards the US..
It's the King what do you expect you have to give it some time. :P
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Quoting 1554. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Looks good at 60 hrs. for it being over land.

That truly looks like a TS over land , could it be a TS as soon as it hits water ?
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The eye of Hurricane Henriette is becoming apparent on visible.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32285
Well, I'm lowering my numbers slightly to 15/6/3
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Erin likely heading for an early recurve.

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Quoting 1539. calkevin77:


I'm so sorry about your uncle. Thoughts and prayers with you and your family.
. Thanks all!
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Quoting 1517. SouthernIllinois:
OH NO!! Making a couple weather observations and now the climate charts are being thrown around! *Ducks and Hides*

I have work to do outside in the woods anyways! See yous all later and will keep you updated on the rainfall totals!! :)

12Z GFS keeping it REAL. YAH!!!!



Later, check your mail when you get a chance!
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Quoting 1544. tropicalnewbee:


I know the idea of a nuke being used was dismissed due to the fallout and nuclear rain it would cause, as well as seeding in front of the system to cause a "backfire burn" of rain as it were, but this would probably only add to the strength of the system. My thoughts are using a fuel air explosive (FAE). the MOAB I believe it one such device which sucks all available oxygen in a given area to the core and uses that to increase the explosion exponentially without going nuclear. I do realize the energy of a hurricane is equivalent of a nuke going off every 20 minutes or so to release the energy it has (imagine if we could somehow harness that power in a windfarm able to withstand the force!), but I think if a few of these types of explosives were used it MIGHT disrupt the "engine" of the system without the nasty side effects of going nuclear. SO.... who wants to go next? :)


Spread a giant tarp about 1,000 miles wide over the hurricanes, blocking it from the sun and disrupting convective building.

Build a brick wall from the ocean bottom up to 10,000 feet high, disrupting the LLC and killing windspeeds?

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1555. ncstorm
I tell ya, the GFS got it get it together..running super slow..this will not work during an active storm heading towards the US..
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Looks good at 60 hrs. for it being over land.

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Quoting 1540. Patrap:
'Brown Ocean' Can Fuel Inland Tropical Cyclones

In the summer of 2007, Tropical Storm Erin stumped meteorologists. Most tropical cyclones dissipate after making landfall, weakened by everything from friction and wind shear to loss of the ocean as a source of heat energy. Not Erin. The storm intensified as it tracked through Texas. It formed an eye over Oklahoma. As it spun over the southern plains, Erin grew stronger than it ever had been over the ocean.
Erin is an example of a newly defined type of inland tropical cyclone that maintains or increases strength after landfall, according to NASA-funded research by Theresa Andersen and J. Marshall Shepherd of the University of Georgia in Athens.

Before making landfall, tropical storms gather power from the warm waters of the ocean. Storms in the newly defined category derive their energy instead from the evaporation of abundant soil moisture %u2013 a phenomenon that Andersen and Shepherd call the "brown ocean."
"The land essentially mimics the moisture-rich environment of the ocean, where the storm originated," Andersen said.

The study is the first global assessment of the post-landfall strength and structure of inland tropical cyclones, and the weather and environmental conditions in which they occur.


Interesting study, although I think the reasons for why Erin strengthened or more complex. For example, many tropical cyclones have tracked inland in the deep south in places such as Louisiana and Florida that have far higher soil moisture conditions and large regions of wetlands that are consistently more ideal for such a phenomenon than Oklahoma.

Now yes something similar may have happened with Fay, Wilma, and Katrina over South Florida, but many tropical cyclones have also weakened substantially in this region as well.

Now, there are many things to consider such as upper air instability over land as well as large scale lift over a land region. With that being said, high soil moisture overland is a good start, but to me it appears to be more complex than that.
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Quoting 1541. unknowncomic:
That new super computer is slower than the last one. I hope the government kept the receipt.


Yeah but I think the code takes into account the flapping of butterfly wings in Brazil... much harder on the CPU.

Where did Gro go.. the commercials for those microwave crocks look perfect for him. Steaming fruit, making omelettes, herring balls, etc in three minutes.

GT, keep those FIMs coming!
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Erin at 114 hrs. you can trace the moisture field all the way back to Central Africa starting in just 54 hrs.

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NCEP Synergy Meeting Highlights: July 15, 2013

Excerpt:


Spring 2014 upgrades include GFS surface, physics, among others. WCOSS is slowing us down, as there are fewer resources on WCOSS. GFS output will be on a 1/8th degree grid, and we will skip the 0.25 degree grid. Delivery to field will be an issue. The data will be at full resolution out to 10 days, every 3 hours. We will still produce the typical grids (0.5 and 1.0 degree) as well, just not 0.25 degree.
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I can remember other times like this when there is a lull where it is thought that cyclone activity wouldn't resume for a seemingly indefinite period of time, and then suddenly some little feature would come to the scene and become a significant storm. Heck, even Dorian wasn't really forecasted by any computer models.

I'm thinking we will probably see a storm form earlier than late August like some people are saying.
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1548. Patrap


Back to Tropical Cyclones Myths Page | Back to Main FAQ Page

Subject: C5c) Why don't we try to destroy tropical cyclones by nuking them ?
Contributed by Chris Landsea
During each hurricane season, there always appear suggestions that one should simply use nuclear weapons to try and destroy the storms. Apart from the fact that this might not even alter the storm, this approach neglects the problem that the released radioactive fallout would fairly quickly move with the tradewinds to affect land areas and cause devastating environmental problems. Needless to say, this is not a good idea.
Now for a more rigorous scientific explanation of why this would not be an effective hurricane modification technique. The main difficulty with using explosives to modify hurricanes is the amount of energy required. A fully developed hurricane can release heat energy at a rate of 5 to 20x1013 watts and converts less than 10% of the heat into the mechanical energy of the wind. The heat release is equivalent to a 10-megaton nuclear bomb exploding every 20 minutes. According to the 1993 World Almanac, the entire human race used energy at a rate of 1013 watts in 1990, a rate less than 20% of the power of a hurricane.
If we think about mechanical energy, the energy at humanity's disposal is closer to the storm's, but the task of focusing even half of the energy on a spot in the middle of a remote ocean would still be formidable. Brute force interference with hurricanes doesn't seem promising.
In addition, an explosive, even a nuclear explosive, produces a shock wave, or pulse of high pressure, that propagates away from the site of the explosion somewhat faster than the speed of sound. Such an event doesn't raise the barometric pressure after the shock has passed because barometric pressure in the atmosphere reflects the weight of the air above the ground. For normal atmospheric pressure, there are about ten metric tons (1000 kilograms per ton) of air bearing down on each square meter of surface. In the strongest hurricanes there are nine. To change a Category 5 hurricane into a Category 2 hurricane you would have to add about a half ton of air for each square meter inside the eye, or a total of a bit more than half a billion (500,000,000) tons for a 20 km radius eye. It's difficult to envision a practical way of moving that much air around.
Attacking weak tropical waves or depressions before they have a chance to grow into hurricanes isn't promising either. About 80 of these disturbances form every year in the Atlantic basin, but only about 5 become hurricanes in a typical year. There is no way to tell in advance which ones will develop. If the energy released in a tropical disturbance were only 10% of that released in a hurricane, it's still a lot of power, so that the hurricane police would need to dim the whole world's lights many times a year.
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Quoting 1542. allancalderini:
Hahah Gro don`t be like that.Caleb thanks for answering me.Remember that I told you that Henriette has a possibility of becoming our first major.:p but no one listens to me.

I never said it wasn't possible. =P
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32285
1546. Patrap

The muskox is one arctic animal that's already seeing higher mortality rates because of one climate change-spread infectious disease. (Susan Kutz/University of Calgary)


Climate Change Spreads Disease Worldwide
Annie Hauser Published: Aug 2, 2013, 11:52 AM EDT weather.com


Climate change is affecting the spread of infectious diseases worldwide — posing serious threats to not only humans, but also animals and plants, a team of international disease ecologists write in the journal Science.

Public health officials should change the way they model disease systems of all kinds to include climate variables, researchers argue. Taking climate into account could help more accurately predict and prevent the spread of deadly disease.

The changing climate is already massively affecting plants and animals, researchers write in the study. The muskox, pictured above, is one arctic animal that's already seeing higher mortality rates because of one climate change-spread infectious disease, researchers said. Biodiversity loss has even been linked to greater risks from certain infectious diseases, such as Lyme disease and the West Nile Virus, according to researchers.

(MORE: Deadly Diseases from Mosquitos, Ticks and More)

Additionally, certain human diseases, such as dengue, malaria and cholera, thrive in warmer temperatures, threatening much of the developing world. The warming globe's impact on agricultural systems and game species pose a particular concern for the indigenous people of the Arctic, among other groups in rapidly changing areas.

The next step, researchers say, is taking action.

"We need to transcend simple arguments about which is more important — climate change or socioeconomics — and ask just how much harder will it be to control diseases as the climate warms?" coauthor Richard Ostfeld of the Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies said in a statement. "Will it be possible at all in developing countries?"

Researchers also need to quantify how climate change impacts disease.

"We'd like to be able to predict, for example, that if the climate warms by a certain amount, then in a particular host-parasite system we might see an increase from one to two transmission cycles per year," according to the University of Georgia's Sonia Altizer, who is the study's lead author. "But we'd also like to try to tie these predictions to actions that might be taken."

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Quoting 1527. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I did it knocked out my internet for awhile. Had to reset the router and all.


Yeah man the lightning was intense last night, no cell really ever moved over me, I only got 0.21 of steady rain from the died out remains of those stronger cells that produced all the lightning.
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Quoting 1486. unknowncomic:
It's about that time of year for the crazy or not so crazy ideas on how to weaken or dissipate a cyclone idea. Any ideas out there?


I know the idea of a nuke being used was dismissed due to the fallout and nuclear rain it would cause, as well as seeding in front of the system to cause a "backfire burn" of rain as it were, but this would probably only add to the strength of the system. My thoughts are using a fuel air explosive (FAE). the MOAB I believe it one such device which sucks all available oxygen in a given area to the core and uses that to increase the explosion exponentially without going nuclear. I do realize the energy of a hurricane is equivalent of a nuke going off every 20 minutes or so to release the energy it has (imagine if we could somehow harness that power in a windfarm able to withstand the force!), but I think if a few of these types of explosives were used it MIGHT disrupt the "engine" of the system without the nasty side effects of going nuclear. SO.... who wants to go next? :)
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1543. yoboi
Quoting 1536. Naga5000:


Yoboi, there are still natural, regional variations that play into the bigger picture. That's why trends and baselines are used to better understand the data. Temperature may not increase every single year due to some of these natural variations, however, looking at the trend over time it is still most definitely increasing.


thanks for explaining in simple terms I am trying to learn.....
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2348
Quoting 1461. Grothar:


I don't think the next storm will be named Allan :):)
Hahah Gro don`t be like that.Caleb thanks for answering me.
Quoting 1495. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Henriette is well on its way to becoming a Category 2 hurricane this morning. The system is maintaining an organized central dense overcast and a very well-defined eye can be seen on microwave imagery. There have been occasional hints of one on visible as well. The latest satellite intensity estimate from UW-CIMSS ADT is T4.7/82.2 kt. Henriette has another 24 hours or so to intensify.

Remember that I told you that Henriette has a possibility of becoming our first major.:p but no one listens to me.
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That new super computer is slower than the last one. I hope the government kept the receipt.
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1540. Patrap
'Brown Ocean' Can Fuel Inland Tropical Cyclones

In the summer of 2007, Tropical Storm Erin stumped meteorologists. Most tropical cyclones dissipate after making landfall, weakened by everything from friction and wind shear to loss of the ocean as a source of heat energy. Not Erin. The storm intensified as it tracked through Texas. It formed an eye over Oklahoma. As it spun over the southern plains, Erin grew stronger than it ever had been over the ocean.
Erin is an example of a newly defined type of inland tropical cyclone that maintains or increases strength after landfall, according to NASA-funded research by Theresa Andersen and J. Marshall Shepherd of the University of Georgia in Athens.

Before making landfall, tropical storms gather power from the warm waters of the ocean. Storms in the newly defined category derive their energy instead from the evaporation of abundant soil moisture – a phenomenon that Andersen and Shepherd call the "brown ocean."
"The land essentially mimics the moisture-rich environment of the ocean, where the storm originated," Andersen said.

The study is the first global assessment of the post-landfall strength and structure of inland tropical cyclones, and the weather and environmental conditions in which they occur.
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Quoting 1518. EyEtoEyE:
Good Day All! I have been in the hospital since 11am yesterday , my uncle is very sick , had open heart surgery , slept overnight in a small waiting room , very hard floors! I am very tired and sore ! He's not out of the woods , by far ! I feel like bleep ! Hope the tropics heat up! Want something or something's to track ! Hope you guys have a great day , try to talk to you all later , so it's back to the hospital !


I'm so sorry about your uncle. Thoughts and prayers with you and your family.
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Quoting 1529. yoboi:



Ok Naga do you want to take this to Roods blog???


I hardly see a reason to.
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Quoting 1524. Patrap:
"The Great thing about Science is, it dosen't care if one "believe's", it jus is"

Neil Degrasse Tyson


Amen Pat. I wasn't aware that science was something that was accepted because of voting, or belief.
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Quoting 1520. yoboi:



since you said increase in c02 blocks the heat escape....c02 is higher now than last yr....why is the artic cooler this yr???????


Yoboi, there are still natural, regional variations that play into the bigger picture. That's why trends and baselines are used to better understand the data. Temperature may not increase every single year due to some of these natural variations, however, looking at the trend over time it is still most definitely increasing.
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TS Gil isn't looking too good this morning, but it is putting on a brave face. The convection has collapsed over the center after becoming better organized last night. However, there is already two areas, albeit small, of deep convection firing back up. SAB and Raw T#'s for ADT are falling due to the lack of convection. If you tilt your headed sideways and look close enough, it looks like Gil is smiling.
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Quoting 1528. Jedkins01:


Well its the rainy season so I think I'll take it all, lol. Besides, we were in mostly drought for several years up until last year., ground water was below normal across the peninsula for nearly 10 years and didn't reach normal until last summer!

Given this, I think I'll keep on hogging the rainfall.

See, we have this expansive limestone composition beneath a very sandy soil, the combination of these 2 things allow it to dry out quickly without frequent heavy rains. In fact, the dry season here has mean precip from 2 to 3 inches, which is normal in many temperate regions, but too dry for this climate.

Because of this, we depend on the rainy season where we can get 40 inches of rain over a widespread area in about 4 months on average, this is crucial in sustaining a large amount of ground water to sustain the the lush foliage and watery ecosystem through the dry season.

Great point!
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Quoting 1515. calkevin77:
Morning all from Central TX. Weather here: 100% chance of hot today. In other news, lunch time in 30 minutes. That's all.


Time for Whataburger
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Quoting 1513. aquak9:
But Elmhurst isn't really southern Illinois, is it?


No, it's in the western burbs of Chicago
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1531. Patrap
Climate Change Could Make Hurricanes Stronger—and More Frequent

Existing research suggests that hurricanes could become stronger but less frequent thanks to climate change. But a new study says both could happen.

By Bryan Walsh @bryanrwalshJuly 09, 2013



Maybe Mayor Michael Bloomberg would have gone through the trouble of putting together a 430-page report outlining a $19.5 billion plan to save New York from the threat of climate change had Hurricane Sandy not hit last year and inflicted some $20 billion in New York City alone. But somehow I doubt it. There’s a reason that a satellite image of Hurricane Katrina highlighted the poster for An Inconvenient Truth, or that belief in man-made global warming tends to spike after extreme weather. Heat waves are uncomfortable and drought is frightening, but it’s superstorms—combined with the more gradual effects of sea-level rise—that can make climate change seem apocalyptic. Just read Jeff Goodell’s recent piece in Rolling Stone about what a major hurricane might be able to do to Miami after a few decades of warming.

But there was one hopeful side effect to climate change, at least when it came to tropical storms. The prevailing scientific opinion—seen in this 2012 report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change—is that while tropical storms are likely to become more powerful and rainier as the climate warms, they would also become less common. Bigger bullets, slower gun.


..more,
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1529. yoboi
Quoting 1523. galvestonhurricane:


You and Naga need to take this discussion to Rood's blog.



Ok Naga do you want to take this to Roods blog???
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2348
Quoting 1468. SouthernIllinois:

Sorry Jed but you guys are hogging all of it down in Florida. Gotta share you know. ;)


Well its the rainy season so I think I'll take it all, lol. Besides, we were in mostly drought for several years up until last year., ground water was below normal across the peninsula for nearly 10 years and didn't reach normal until last summer!

Given this, I think I'll keep on hogging the rainfall.

See, we have this expansive limestone composition beneath a very sandy soil, the combination of these 2 things allow it to dry out quickly without frequent heavy rains. In fact, the dry season here has mean precip from 2 to 3 inches, which is normal in many temperate regions, but too dry for this climate.

Because of this, we depend on the rainy season where we can get 40 inches of rain over a widespread area in about 4 months on average, this is crucial in sustaining a large amount of ground water to sustain the the lush foliage and watery ecosystem through the dry season.

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Quoting 1525. clwstmchasr:


Did you get that storm over night? 1:00 in the morning the thunder was so loud it set off car alarms in my neighborhood.
I did it knocked out my internet for awhile. Had to reset the router and all.
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1526. no1der
Currently by all of <0.5C, under clouds from the persistent Polar lows, and after a much warmer than normal winter.

And your point is...?

DMI mean temperatures N of 80N


Quoting 1501. PensacolaDoug:
The temps at the top o da world don't lie Nea. It has been cooler up there this year no matter how much you DENY it. Also, I didn't read anywhere that anyone said summer was over, that is a construct by you as far as I can tell. Correct me if I'm wrong please.

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1524. Patrap
"The Great thing about Science is, it dosen't care if one "believe's", it jus is"

Neil Degrasse Tyson

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Quoting 1520. yoboi:



since you said increase in c02 blocks the heat escape....c02 is higher now than last yr....why is the artic cooler this yr???????


You and Naga need to take this discussion to Rood's blog.
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1522. LargoFl
Getting a nice shower here now..no thunder so far...
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Umm isn't it supposed to be cold in the arctic and antarctic regions and warmer near the equator, or did the magnetic field of earth switch while I wasn't looking? So just a few weeks ago there was a massive heat wave now there is a massive cool down. Patterns change even in the summer time. Nothing sits still in one place. Try not to discredit the believers of AGW as they have scientific facts and research to back up their claim and at the same time to those believers try not to put down those who don't believe in it, you just make yourself look like a fool doing it. We can all have civil discussions in here without the personal attack. Think before you speak. If half of you met the person you were conversing with would this be the attitude you use when you talk to them?
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1520. yoboi
Quoting 1509. Naga5000:


Yes that is true, Link, it also is true that sea ice volume is sitting in 4th lowest, 2 standard deviations outside the 1979-2012 mean. Link and sea ice extent is currently 5th lowest, Link almost 2 standard deviations from the 1979-2010 mean.

Given the below normal temps above the 80th parallel, this should give us great pause about the arctic.



since you said increase in c02 blocks the heat escape....c02 is higher now than last yr....why is the artic cooler this yr???????
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2348
1519. Patrap
Quoting 1516. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
100 or so extra large ground mount turbo fans in the desert of north Africa to blow dust all year out over the atlantic might work for awhile anyway


Or we could pump Burning Fossil Fuels exhaust into the atmosphere, by the giga-tonnes 24/7/365 maybe?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.