Hurricanes and Climate Change: Huge Dangers, Huge Unknowns

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:57 AM GMT on August 05, 2013

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Hurricane Sandy's enormous $65 billion price tag put that great storm in third place for the most expensive weather-related disaster in U.S. (and world) history, and six of the ten most expensive U.S. weather-related disasters since 1980 have been hurricanes. Thus, how the strongest hurricanes may be affected due a changing climate is a topic of critical concern. Since hurricanes are heat engines that extract heat energy from the oceans to power themselves, hurricane scientists are confident that the very strongest storms will get stronger by the end of the century, when Earth's land and ocean temperatures are expected to warm 2 - 3°C, to levels unmatched since the Eemian Era, 115,000 years ago. Computer modeling work consistently indicates that greenhouse warming will cause the globally averaged intensity of tropical cyclones to shift towards stronger storms, with intensity increases of 2–11% by 2100. But hurricanes are fussy creations, and are sensitive to wind shear and dry air. Although the strongest storms should get stronger when "perfect storm" conditions are present, these "perfect storm" conditions may become less frequent in the future, due to the presence of higher wind shear, altered atmospheric circulation patterns, or more dry air at mid levels of the atmosphere. Indeed, the climate models used to formulate the 2007 IPCC report suggested that we might see the strongest hurricanes getting stronger, but a decrease in the total number of hurricanes in the Atlantic (and worldwide) later this century. However, the latest set of models used to formulate the 2013 IPCC report left open the possibility that we might see in increase in the total number of hurricanes, and and increase in their intensity. Given the conflicting model results, we really don't know how global warming will affect the number of hurricanes and their intensity, but we run the risk of making one of humanity's greatest scourges worse.


Figure 1. The list of most expensive U.S. weather-related disasters since 1980 is dominated by hurricanes.

Climate models and hurricane frequency
The database we have on historical hurricanes does not extend far enough into the past and is not of high enough quality to make many judgements on how human-caused climate change may be affecting these great storms. A landmark 2010 review paper, "Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change", authored by ten top hurricane scientists concluded that the U.S. has not seen any long-term increase in landfalling tropical storms and hurricanes, and that "it remains uncertain whether past changes in tropical cyclone activity have exceeded the variability expected from natural causes" (tropical cyclone is the generic term which encompasses tropical depressions, tropical storms, hurricanes, and typhoons.) Based in part on modeling studies using climate models run for the 2007 IPCC report, the scientists concluded that "it is likely that global mean tropical cyclone frequency will either decrease or remain unchanged owing to greenhouse warming." For example, one of the modeling studies the review paper quoted, Knutson et al. (2008), "Simulated reduction in Atlantic hurricane frequency under twenty-first-century warming conditions", projected a decrease in Atlantic tropical storms by 27% and hurricanes by 18% by the end of the century. An important reason that their model predicted these decreases was due to a predicted increase in wind shear. As I explain in my wind shear tutorial, a large change of wind speed with height over a hurricane creates a shearing force that tends to tear the storm apart. The amount of wind shear is critical in determining whether a hurricane can form or survive.

But a July 2013 study by MIT's Dr. Kerry Emanuel, "Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century", challenged this result. Dr. Emanuel argued that tropical cyclones are likely to become both stronger and more frequent as the climate continues to warm. This increase is most likely to occur in Western North Pacific, with smaller increases in the Atlantic. Dr. Emanuel took output from six newer higher-resolution climate models used to formulate the 2013 IPCC report, and used the output to drive a high-resolution hurricane model. The simulations found that the global frequency of tropical cyclones would increase by 11% to 40% by 2100, with intensity increases as well. The combined effects produced a global increase in Category 3 and stronger hurricanes of 40%. The behavior of these strongest hurricanes is critical, since they do most of the damage we observe. Over the past century, Category 3 - 5 hurricanes accounted for 85% of US hurricane damage, despite representing only 24% of U.S. landfalling storms. Category 4 and 5 hurricanes made up only 6% of all U.S. landfalls, but accounted for 48% of all U.S. damage (if normalized to account for increases in U.S. population and wealth, see Pielke et al., 2008.)


Figure 2. Projected changes in tropical cyclone track density during the 2006-2100 period compared to the 1950-2005 period, using output from six climate models included in the 2013 IPCC report. The global frequency of tropical cyclones is predicted to increase by 11% to 40%, with the largest changes occurring in the Northwest Pacific off the coast of Japan. Smaller increases are predicted for the Atlantic and near Australia. Image credit: Kerry Emanuel, "Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century", Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, July 8, 2013, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1301293110.

However, a study by Knutson et al. (2013), using the same latest-generation climate models as used by Emanuel (2013), but using the output from the models to drive a different high-resolution hurricane model, found a 20% decrease in Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes by 2100. Two other 2013 studies by Villarini et al. and Camargo, also using output from the 2013 IPCC models, found essentially no change in Atlantic tropical cyclones. The reason for the differences, lies, in part, with how much global warming is assumed in the studies. Dr. Emanuel's study, which found an increase in tropical cyclone activity, assumed a worst-case warming situation (RCP 8.5), following the "business as usual" emissions path humanity is currently on. The Knutson et al. study, which found a decrease of 20% in Atlantic tropical cyclones, used a scenario (RCP 4.5) where it was assumed humans will wise up and cause about half of the worst-case greenhouse warming. The study found found "marginally significant" increases in Atlantic Category 4 and 5 hurricanes of 39% - 45% by 2100. These dramatically different results give credence to Dr. Emanuel statement at the end of his paper, "the response of tropical cyclones to projected climate change will remain uncertain for some time to come." The 2013 IPCC report also emphasized the high amount of uncertainty in how climate change might affect hurricanes, stating that there was "low confidence" that we have observed any increases in intense tropical cyclones due to human causes. However, since the 1970s, it is virtually certain (99 - 100% chance) that the frequency and intensity of hurricanes and tropical storms in the North Atlantic has increased, and there is medium confidence that a reduction in small air pollution particles (aerosols) over the North Atlantic caused part of this effect. The report's forecast for the future stated that it is "more likely than not" (50 - 100% chance) that human-caused climate change will cause a substantial increase in intense tropical cyclones in some ocean basins by 2100, with the Western North Pacific and Atlantic being at particular risk. Also, there will likely (66 - 100% chance) be an increase in both global mean tropical cyclone maximum wind speed and rain rates by 2100, and more likely than not (50 - 100% chance) that the increase in the most intense tropical cyclones will be larger than 10% in some basins.


Figure 3. Expected change in Atlantic Category 4 and 5 hurricanes per decade expected by the year 2100, according to Knutson et al. (2013), "Dynamical Downscaling Projections of 21st Century Atlantic Hurricane Activity: CMIP3 and CMIP5 Model-based Scenarios." This research used the latest generation of climate models from the 2013 IPCC report, and found "marginally significant" increases in Atlantic Category 4 and 5 hurricanes of 39% - 45% by 2100.

Commentary
Hurricane damages are currently doubling every ten years without the effect of climate change, according to Pielke et al., 2008. This is primarily due to the increasing population along the coast and increased wealth of the population. The authors theorize that the Great Miami Hurricane of 1926, a Category 4 monster that made a direct hit on Miami Beach, would have caused about $150 billion in damage had it hit in 2005. Thus, by 2015, the same hurricane would do $300 billion in damage, and $600 billion by 2025. This is without considering the impact that accelerating sea level rise will have on storm surge damages. Global sea level rise over the past decade has been about double what it was in the 20th century, and the rate of sea level rise is expected to increase further in the coming decades. Storm surge does the majority of damage in major hurricanes, and storm surges riding on top of higher sea levels are going to do a lot more damage in the coming decades. If we toss in the (controversial) increases in Category 3 and stronger storms like Dr. Emanuel suggests may occur, the hurricane damage math gets very impressive. We can also add onto that the relatively non-controversial increase in tropical cyclone rainfall of 20% expected by 2100, which will sharply increase damages due to fresh water river flooding. It is controversial whether or not we are already be seeing an increase in heavy precipitation events associated with tropical cyclones in the U.S., though. The total number of daily rainfall events exceeding 2" associated with tropical cyclones in the Southeast U.S. on a century time scale has not changed significantly, according to Groisman et al., 2004. But a 2010 study by Kunkel et al., "Recent increases in U.S. heavy precipitation associated with tropical cyclones", found that the number of Southeast U.S. tropical cyclone heavy precipitation events, defined as 1-in-5-year events, more than doubled between 1994 - 2008, compared to the long-term average from 1895 - 2008.


Figure 4. Time series of the 15-year running average (plotted at the end point of the 15-yr blocks) of a Tropical Cyclone Heavy Precipitation Index (red) and 15-year running average of U.S. landfalling hurricanes (blue). Note that there has been no long-term increase in U.S. landfalling hurricanes, but there has been a sharp increase in extreme rainfall events associated with landfalling tropical cyclones--the kind of rainfall events most likely to cause damaging flooding. Image credit: Kunkel et al. (2010), "Recent increases in U.S. heavy precipitation associated with tropical cyclones", Geophysical Research Letters.

It is essential that we limit coastal development in vulnerable coastal areas, particularly along barrier islands, to reduce some of the astronomical price tags hurricanes are going to be causing in the future. Adoption and enforcement of strict building standards is also a must, as well as more reforms to the government's National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), which subsidizes development in high-risk coastal regions that private insurers won't touch. NFIP is now $25 - 30 billion in the red, thanks to Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Sandy. Reform of NFIP is already underway. In 2012, before Sandy hit, Congress passed the Biggert-Waters Flood Insurance Reform Act, which requires people with NFIP policies to pay large premium increases of about 25% per year over the next five years. Naturally, this move has caused major controversy.

References
Camargo, S., (2013), "Global and regional aspects of tropical cyclone activity in the CMIP5 models," J. Climate.

Emanuel, K.A., 2013, "Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century", PNAS, July 8, 2013, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1301293110

Groisman, Pavel Ya, et al., "Contemporary changes of the hydrological cycle over the contiguous United States: Trends derived from in situ observations," Journal of Hydrometeorology 5.1 (2004): 64-85.

Knutson et al., 2010, "Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change", Nature Geoscience 3, 157 - 163, Published online: 21 February 2010 | doi:10.1038/ngeo779

Knutson et al., 2013, Dynamical Downscaling Projections of 21st Century Atlantic Hurricane Activity: CMIP3 and CMIP5 Model-based Scenarios, Journal of Climate 2013 ; e-View
doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00539.1

Pielke, R.A, et al., 2008, "Normalized Hurricane Damage in the United States: 1900 - 2005," Natural Hazards Review, DOI:10.1061/ASCE1527-6988(2008)9:1(29)

Villarini, G, and G.A. Vecchi, 2012, "Twenty-first-century projections of North Atlantic tropical storms from CMIP5 models," Nature Clim. Change 2:604–607.

Related posts
Global warming and the frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes: model results, my 2010 blog post.

Climate Central's analysis of the new 2013 Kerry Emanuel paper.

Goodbye, Miami: Jeff Goodell's sobering 2013 article in Rolling Stone on the challenges Miami faces due to sea level rise and hurricanes.


What the official climate assessments say about climate change and hurricanes
The 2013 IPCC report gives “low confidence”--a 20% chance--that we have observed a human-caused increase in intense hurricanes in some parts of the world. This is a reduction in odds from the 2007 report, which said that it was more likely than not (greater than 50% chance.) The IPCC likely took note of a landmark 2010 review paper, "Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change", authored by ten top hurricane scientists, which concluded that the U.S. had not seen any long-term increase in landfalling tropical storms and hurricanes, and that "it remains uncertain whether past changes in tropical cyclone activity have exceeded the variability expected from natural causes." The 2013 IPCC report predicts that there is a greater than 50% chance (more likely than not) that we will see a human-caused increase in intense hurricanes by 2100 in some regions; this is also a reduction from the 2007 report, which said this would be likely (66% chance or higher.)

The May 2014 United States National Climate Assessment found that “The intensity, frequency, and duration of North Atlantic hurricanes, as well as the frequency of the strongest (Category 4 and 5) hurricanes, have all increased since the early 1980s. The relative contributions of human and natural causes to these increases are still uncertain. Hurricane-associated storm intensity and rainfall rates are projected to increase as the climate continues to warm.”

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 1609. StormPro:


I'll join you in gooberdom: Being an engineer I'll have to shoot down your hypothesis about the cement. Cement actually hardens at a higher breaking resistant strength under water


Really? I didn't know that thanks! I figured if it stays wet it would not harden. So, Since your an engineer, do you think his brick wall idea might actually have some merit? Or does my idea have any logical footing?
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Trends in Atmospheric Carbon DioxideLink

Recent Monthly Average Mauna Loa CO2
July 2013: 397.23 ppm
July 2012: 394.30 ppm

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Could be more of a home grown season by the looks of it which means more landfalls. I am not expecting as active of a Cape-Verde season as the last 3 years.
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I see the center or the tropical low on here..
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 26 Comments: 51280
1615. Gearsts
Quoting 1607. MAweatherboy1:

It gets better long range, dry air gets pushed out of the MDR towards the Caribbean, where it will likely keep getting pushed out:



I guess the shear isn't all that bad towards the very end of the run either, a few pockets here and there but nothing too widespread:

Remember shear can't be low everywhere when there's a system around, because a TC creates and upper high and outflow, increasing shear around them but very light shear in the core.
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Quoting 1589. SuperStorm093:
Another crappy run of the Gfs. I am telling you guys, we are going to be in a long lull.


From the last part of August 'til October anything can happen.
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Quoting 1608. wunderweatherman123:
we arent going to get an el nino! its IMPOSSIBLE! i dont wanna hear el nino talks. GFS sometimes develop anything even though conditions are favorable. this season will be active trust me
I don't know man, but I highly doubt it will be as active as the last 3 seasons. I am still sticking to my predictions of 15/8/5.
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Looks like instability will once again be an issue this season.How surprising.
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I'd say 2003 as an analog.
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1610. Gearsts
Rushing our way finally.
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Quoting 1579. tropicalnewbee:


obviously being a goober but let me debunk it anyway :) the tarp idea would run into problems by the wind force and the level of precision to put it in place is akin to flying c130's like the blue angels do. The brick wall idea would never "get off the ground" because the cement would never cure below water lol. I know my idea was a long shot and it will not lower pressures as Pat's post had mentioned, but by sucking the available air in the area it might take the latent heat from evaporation out long enough (remember using multiple timed detonations) to effectively cutoff the heat source temporarily to weaken it. The opposite argument is-won't the explosion dramatically increase air temps? Of course it would but with the available oxygen and water vapor being sucked in and essentially cooked, it would dry out the air within the storm to weaken it (at least temporarily and remember using multiple bombs to create a wave effect of strength to combat the power of the system).


I'll join you in gooberdom: Being an engineer I'll have to shoot down your hypothesis about the cement. Cement actually hardens at a higher breaking resistant strength under water
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Quoting 1604. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Hang on they're 2 types of El Nino conditions right? SST based and Atmospheric based right?
we arent going to get an el nino! its IMPOSSIBLE! i dont wanna hear el nino talks. GFS sometimes develop anything even though conditions are favorable. this season will be active trust me
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Quoting 1601. Gearsts:
Dry air is and issue actually as the gfs shows all the waves embedded in the orange stuff until they get closer to 50w

It gets better long range, dry air gets pushed out of the MDR towards the Caribbean, where it will likely keep getting pushed out:



I guess the shear isn't all that bad towards the very end of the run either, a few pockets here and there but nothing too widespread:

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1606. Patrap
Quoting 1603. beell:


How can they give a 5 day probability of development if there is no AOI?


.."cymbal crash'
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1605. Patrap
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Hang on they're 2 types of El Nino conditions right? SST based and Atmospheric based right?
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1603. beell
Quoting 1593. wunderkidcayman:

no!!! I don't care about the crayon its not that, its that they did not mention 5 days.




I agree I'd say most likely it forms S of 15N



How can they give a 5 day probability of development if there is no AOI?
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16720
Quoting 1598. GTstormChaserCaleb:
How does 2002 sound as an analog? If wind shear were to pick wouldn't that be a sign of an approaching El-Nino?
el nino! ha! please we are more of a la nina. CFS is awful at predicting the enso. showed strong el nino last year and this year too. how did that turn out?
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1601. Gearsts
Dry air is and issue actually as the gfs shows all the waves embedded in the orange stuff until they get closer to 50w
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1600. txjac
Well, I'm off ...on my way to Ohio ...where it's been in the 70's to low 80's ...

I'll be lurking as I can.

I love road trips with my sister

See ya when I get back!
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Quoting 1583. wunderkidcayman:
Interesting

000
ABNT20 KNHC 061657
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 6 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER HURLEY


What Happened to 5 days
I imagine they are not to sure for the remaining three days.
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Quoting 1590. MAweatherboy1:
The models still don't seem to be showing very favorable conditions for waves moving across the Atlantic. Dry air seems to be less of a problem, as we would expect, and models continue to show the favorable low MSLP, but they now seem to be showing occasional to frequent bouts of high shear in the Atlantic. The CFS shows above average shear pretty much all the way to the climatological peak:



If things really do stay this unfavorable through early September then realistically it would be extremely difficult to meet the seasonal predictions. I'm not saying that's what will happen but it's an increasingly real possibility.
How does 2002 sound as an analog? If wind shear were to pick up wouldn't that be a sign of an approaching El-Nino?
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1597. Gearsts
Quoting 1590. MAweatherboy1:
The models still don't seem to be showing very favorable conditions for waves moving across the Atlantic. Dry air seems to be less of a problem, as we would expect, and models continue to show the favorable low MSLP, but they now seem to be showing occasional to frequent bouts of high shear in the Atlantic. The CFS shows above average shear pretty much all the way to the climatological peak:



If things really do stay this unfavorable through early September then realistically it would be extremely difficult to meet the seasonal predictions. I'm not saying that's what will happen but it's an increasingly real possibility.

Edit- I should note that the Caribbean looks pretty good though. If anything can get in there then things could get interesting, especially since storms that form there almost always impact land.
Thats not shear! Is showing very slow trades over the MDR.
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1596. bappit
Quoting 1546. Patrap:
[...] "We need to transcend simple arguments about which is more important — climate change or socioeconomics — and ask just how much harder will it be to control diseases as the climate warms?" coauthor Richard Ostfeld of the Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies said in a statement. "Will it be possible at all in developing countries?" [...]

Maybe disease is part of those natural cycles I hear tell of that will turn this temperature thing around. Fewer people = less CO2.
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Quoting 1590. MAweatherboy1:
The models still don't seem to be showing very favorable conditions for waves moving across the Atlantic. Dry air seems to be less of a problem, as we would expect, and models continue to show the favorable low MSLP, but they now seem to be showing occasional to frequent bouts of high shear in the Atlantic. The CFS shows above average shear pretty much all the way to the climatological peak:



If things really do stay this unfavorable through early September then realistically it would be extremely difficult to meet the seasonal predictions. I'm not saying that's what will happen but it's an increasingly real possibility.
the CFS predicted an el nino. cfs is awful at predicting the enso but is great at showing the steering pattern
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1594. Gearsts
Quoting 1581. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Nice! CMC likes it and not over deepening it as well, very reasonable now.



At 240 hrs. it starts to turn more towards the north and encounters cooler waters.



I remember with Dorian the models recurve the system as it came out of Africa but funny think is that it ended in the Bahamas lol
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Quoting 1585. beell:


No crayon.

no!!! I don't care about the crayon its not that, its that they did not mention 5 days.



Quoting 1586. wunderweatherman123:
models are too far north in initializing the wave. i doubt it forms over or north of the cape verde islands.

I agree I'd say most likely it forms S of 15N

Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12147
The two waves near the Lesser Antilles have a window of nearly 24 and 48 hours respectively to develop before heading into the hostile eastern Caribbean Sea. New wave emerging off of Africa has the best chance to intensify and develop into Erin as vorticity is organizing and the atmosphere is moistened up near its latitude and it has an upper level anticyclone associated with it so wind shear will be about 5-10 knots.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 245 Comments: 3935
Quoting 1586. wunderweatherman123:
models are too far north in initializing the wave. i doubt it forms over or north of the cape verde islands.

You just don't want to deal with a storm that will recurve. :P

Quoting 1583. wunderkidcayman:
Interesting

000
ABNT20 KNHC 061657
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 6 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER HURLEY


What Happened to 5 days

My guess is maybe because it was done by a backup for the NHC, they didn't do the 5 day TWO.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The models still don't seem to be showing very favorable conditions for waves moving across the Atlantic. Dry air seems to be less of a problem, as we would expect, and models continue to show the favorable low MSLP, but they now seem to be showing occasional to frequent bouts of high shear in the Atlantic. The CFS shows above average shear pretty much all the way to the climatological peak:



If things really do stay this unfavorable through early September then realistically it would be extremely difficult to meet the seasonal predictions. I'm not saying that's what will happen but it's an increasingly real possibility.

Edit- I should note that the Caribbean looks pretty good though. If anything can get in there then things could get interesting, especially since storms that form there almost always impact land.
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Another crappy run of the Gfs. I am telling you guys, we are going to be in a long lull.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1581. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Nice! CMC likes it and not over deepening it as well, very reasonable now.



At 240 hrs. it starts to turn more towards the north and encounters cooler waters.





more like moves its N and E back to CV islands
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12147
PWAT values look good in the entire Caribbean and Gulf.

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models are too far north in initializing the wave. i doubt it forms over or north of the cape verde islands.
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1585. beell
Quoting 1583. wunderkidcayman:
Interesting

000
ABNT20 KNHC 061657
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 6 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER HURLEY


What Happened to 5 days


No crayon.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16720
This is the one of the coldest birthdays I've had in as long as I can remember.

12:53 pm EDT
Temp: 72
Dewpoint: 66
RH: 82%
Wind: SSW @ 6
Vis: 10.00 miles
Sky: OVC014
Pressure: 1013.3mb
Altimeter: 29.93"

No VFR today, so I'm off to jam with the band, eat homemade German chocolate cake, and drink beer. :)

Last year at this we were all watching Ernie ramp up. Obviously nothing like that in the Atlantic right now.

Have a great day everyone!
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Interesting

000
ABNT20 KNHC 061657
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 6 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER HURLEY


What Happened to 5 days
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12147
Quoting 1574. eyewallblues:


You do that and I will have the Sahara paved!!! No more SAL means 46 named storms, 28 Hurricanes 17 Majors.


You do realize that Saharan dust brings fertile nutrients to the amazon and the rainforests of south and Central America, and that if you pave the Sahel the rainforests will decline further.
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Nice! CMC likes it and not over deepening it as well, very reasonable now.



At 240 hrs. it starts to turn more towards the north and encounters cooler waters.



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AMBER ALERT: Dimaggio is believed to have taken the children Hannah and Ethan to Canada or Texas. Please keep an eye out just in case you see something

An amber alert was issued after the disappearance of Hannah and Ethan Anderson. Investigators believe one or both of them were abducted by DiMaggio, who may be driving a 2013 blue Nissan Versa, California license plate 6WCU986.

DiMaggio is 5 feet 9, 150 pounds, with brown hair and brown eyes. Hannah is 5 feet 7, 115 pounds, with blond hair, blue eyes, a belly button ring, nose stud and pierced ears. Ethan is 4 feet 11, 64 pounds, with sandy blond
hair. All three are white.
Member Since: February 13, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 3768
Quoting 1556. SPLbeater:


Spread a giant tarp about 1,000 miles wide over the hurricanes, blocking it from the sun and disrupting convective building.

Build a brick wall from the ocean bottom up to 10,000 feet high, disrupting the LLC and killing windspeeds?



obviously being a goober but let me debunk it anyway :) the tarp idea would run into problems by the wind force and the level of precision to put it in place is akin to flying c130's like the blue angels do. The brick wall idea would never "get off the ground" because the cement would never cure below water lol. I know my idea was a long shot and it will not lower pressures as Pat's post had mentioned, but by sucking the available air in the area it might take the latent heat from evaporation out long enough (remember using multiple timed detonations) to effectively cutoff the heat source temporarily to weaken it. The opposite argument is-won't the explosion dramatically increase air temps? Of course it would but with the available oxygen and water vapor being sucked in and essentially cooked, it would dry out the air within the storm to weaken it (at least temporarily and remember using multiple bombs to create a wave effect of strength to combat the power of the system).
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Quoting 1576. GTstormChaserCaleb:
CMC is much lower, let's see if it recurves it as well.


Looks like the CMC slowly recurves it, as well as slowly weakening it:

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Anyone out there in hurricane school majoring in majors?
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CMC is much lower, let's see if it recurves it as well.

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hey guys just incase nobody saw new surface map added surface low to the surface trof thats in between 45W and 50W
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12147
Quoting 1556. SPLbeater:


Spread a giant tarp about 1,000 miles wide over the hurricanes, blocking it from the sun and disrupting convective building.

Build a brick wall from the ocean bottom up to 10,000 feet high, disrupting the LLC and killing windspeeds?



You do that and I will have the Sahara paved!!! No more SAL means 46 named storms, 28 Hurricanes 17 Majors.
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1573. ncstorm
Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 3h

Loop of tail of front near S fla and 2 waves east of islands. system 1 in gulf by wed, 2 waves in Caribbean by then http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-vis.h tml …
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15666
I ink our first August storm will come from the wave currently emerging into the eastern Atlantic associated with a strong 850mb vort signature that is emerging off the west African coastline, convection is exploding along the ITCZ.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 245 Comments: 3935
Quoting 1559. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Erin likely heading for an early recurve.

I bet you its start moving wsw to
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 26 Comments: 51280
Cool! looks like the shape of South America. :D

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.