Hurricanes and Climate Change: Huge Dangers, Huge Unknowns

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:57 AM GMT on August 05, 2013

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Hurricane Sandy's enormous $65 billion price tag put that great storm in third place for the most expensive weather-related disaster in U.S. (and world) history, and six of the ten most expensive U.S. weather-related disasters since 1980 have been hurricanes. Thus, how the strongest hurricanes may be affected due a changing climate is a topic of critical concern. Since hurricanes are heat engines that extract heat energy from the oceans to power themselves, hurricane scientists are confident that the very strongest storms will get stronger by the end of the century, when Earth's land and ocean temperatures are expected to warm 2 - 3°C, to levels unmatched since the Eemian Era, 115,000 years ago. Computer modeling work consistently indicates that greenhouse warming will cause the globally averaged intensity of tropical cyclones to shift towards stronger storms, with intensity increases of 2–11% by 2100. But hurricanes are fussy creations, and are sensitive to wind shear and dry air. Although the strongest storms should get stronger when "perfect storm" conditions are present, these "perfect storm" conditions may become less frequent in the future, due to the presence of higher wind shear, altered atmospheric circulation patterns, or more dry air at mid levels of the atmosphere. Indeed, the climate models used to formulate the 2007 IPCC report suggested that we might see the strongest hurricanes getting stronger, but a decrease in the total number of hurricanes in the Atlantic (and worldwide) later this century. However, the latest set of models used to formulate the 2013 IPCC report left open the possibility that we might see in increase in the total number of hurricanes, and and increase in their intensity. Given the conflicting model results, we really don't know how global warming will affect the number of hurricanes and their intensity, but we run the risk of making one of humanity's greatest scourges worse.


Figure 1. The list of most expensive U.S. weather-related disasters since 1980 is dominated by hurricanes.

Climate models and hurricane frequency
The database we have on historical hurricanes does not extend far enough into the past and is not of high enough quality to make many judgements on how human-caused climate change may be affecting these great storms. A landmark 2010 review paper, "Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change", authored by ten top hurricane scientists concluded that the U.S. has not seen any long-term increase in landfalling tropical storms and hurricanes, and that "it remains uncertain whether past changes in tropical cyclone activity have exceeded the variability expected from natural causes" (tropical cyclone is the generic term which encompasses tropical depressions, tropical storms, hurricanes, and typhoons.) Based in part on modeling studies using climate models run for the 2007 IPCC report, the scientists concluded that "it is likely that global mean tropical cyclone frequency will either decrease or remain unchanged owing to greenhouse warming." For example, one of the modeling studies the review paper quoted, Knutson et al. (2008), "Simulated reduction in Atlantic hurricane frequency under twenty-first-century warming conditions", projected a decrease in Atlantic tropical storms by 27% and hurricanes by 18% by the end of the century. An important reason that their model predicted these decreases was due to a predicted increase in wind shear. As I explain in my wind shear tutorial, a large change of wind speed with height over a hurricane creates a shearing force that tends to tear the storm apart. The amount of wind shear is critical in determining whether a hurricane can form or survive.

But a July 2013 study by MIT's Dr. Kerry Emanuel, "Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century", challenged this result. Dr. Emanuel argued that tropical cyclones are likely to become both stronger and more frequent as the climate continues to warm. This increase is most likely to occur in Western North Pacific, with smaller increases in the Atlantic. Dr. Emanuel took output from six newer higher-resolution climate models used to formulate the 2013 IPCC report, and used the output to drive a high-resolution hurricane model. The simulations found that the global frequency of tropical cyclones would increase by 11% to 40% by 2100, with intensity increases as well. The combined effects produced a global increase in Category 3 and stronger hurricanes of 40%. The behavior of these strongest hurricanes is critical, since they do most of the damage we observe. Over the past century, Category 3 - 5 hurricanes accounted for 85% of US hurricane damage, despite representing only 24% of U.S. landfalling storms. Category 4 and 5 hurricanes made up only 6% of all U.S. landfalls, but accounted for 48% of all U.S. damage (if normalized to account for increases in U.S. population and wealth, see Pielke et al., 2008.)


Figure 2. Projected changes in tropical cyclone track density during the 2006-2100 period compared to the 1950-2005 period, using output from six climate models included in the 2013 IPCC report. The global frequency of tropical cyclones is predicted to increase by 11% to 40%, with the largest changes occurring in the Northwest Pacific off the coast of Japan. Smaller increases are predicted for the Atlantic and near Australia. Image credit: Kerry Emanuel, "Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century", Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, July 8, 2013, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1301293110.

However, a study by Knutson et al. (2013), using the same latest-generation climate models as used by Emanuel (2013), but using the output from the models to drive a different high-resolution hurricane model, found a 20% decrease in Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes by 2100. Two other 2013 studies by Villarini et al. and Camargo, also using output from the 2013 IPCC models, found essentially no change in Atlantic tropical cyclones. The reason for the differences, lies, in part, with how much global warming is assumed in the studies. Dr. Emanuel's study, which found an increase in tropical cyclone activity, assumed a worst-case warming situation (RCP 8.5), following the "business as usual" emissions path humanity is currently on. The Knutson et al. study, which found a decrease of 20% in Atlantic tropical cyclones, used a scenario (RCP 4.5) where it was assumed humans will wise up and cause about half of the worst-case greenhouse warming. The study found found "marginally significant" increases in Atlantic Category 4 and 5 hurricanes of 39% - 45% by 2100. These dramatically different results give credence to Dr. Emanuel statement at the end of his paper, "the response of tropical cyclones to projected climate change will remain uncertain for some time to come." The 2013 IPCC report also emphasized the high amount of uncertainty in how climate change might affect hurricanes, stating that there was "low confidence" that we have observed any increases in intense tropical cyclones due to human causes. However, since the 1970s, it is virtually certain (99 - 100% chance) that the frequency and intensity of hurricanes and tropical storms in the North Atlantic has increased, and there is medium confidence that a reduction in small air pollution particles (aerosols) over the North Atlantic caused part of this effect. The report's forecast for the future stated that it is "more likely than not" (50 - 100% chance) that human-caused climate change will cause a substantial increase in intense tropical cyclones in some ocean basins by 2100, with the Western North Pacific and Atlantic being at particular risk. Also, there will likely (66 - 100% chance) be an increase in both global mean tropical cyclone maximum wind speed and rain rates by 2100, and more likely than not (50 - 100% chance) that the increase in the most intense tropical cyclones will be larger than 10% in some basins.


Figure 3. Expected change in Atlantic Category 4 and 5 hurricanes per decade expected by the year 2100, according to Knutson et al. (2013), "Dynamical Downscaling Projections of 21st Century Atlantic Hurricane Activity: CMIP3 and CMIP5 Model-based Scenarios." This research used the latest generation of climate models from the 2013 IPCC report, and found "marginally significant" increases in Atlantic Category 4 and 5 hurricanes of 39% - 45% by 2100.

Commentary
Hurricane damages are currently doubling every ten years without the effect of climate change, according to Pielke et al., 2008. This is primarily due to the increasing population along the coast and increased wealth of the population. The authors theorize that the Great Miami Hurricane of 1926, a Category 4 monster that made a direct hit on Miami Beach, would have caused about $150 billion in damage had it hit in 2005. Thus, by 2015, the same hurricane would do $300 billion in damage, and $600 billion by 2025. This is without considering the impact that accelerating sea level rise will have on storm surge damages. Global sea level rise over the past decade has been about double what it was in the 20th century, and the rate of sea level rise is expected to increase further in the coming decades. Storm surge does the majority of damage in major hurricanes, and storm surges riding on top of higher sea levels are going to do a lot more damage in the coming decades. If we toss in the (controversial) increases in Category 3 and stronger storms like Dr. Emanuel suggests may occur, the hurricane damage math gets very impressive. We can also add onto that the relatively non-controversial increase in tropical cyclone rainfall of 20% expected by 2100, which will sharply increase damages due to fresh water river flooding. It is controversial whether or not we are already be seeing an increase in heavy precipitation events associated with tropical cyclones in the U.S., though. The total number of daily rainfall events exceeding 2" associated with tropical cyclones in the Southeast U.S. on a century time scale has not changed significantly, according to Groisman et al., 2004. But a 2010 study by Kunkel et al., "Recent increases in U.S. heavy precipitation associated with tropical cyclones", found that the number of Southeast U.S. tropical cyclone heavy precipitation events, defined as 1-in-5-year events, more than doubled between 1994 - 2008, compared to the long-term average from 1895 - 2008.


Figure 4. Time series of the 15-year running average (plotted at the end point of the 15-yr blocks) of a Tropical Cyclone Heavy Precipitation Index (red) and 15-year running average of U.S. landfalling hurricanes (blue). Note that there has been no long-term increase in U.S. landfalling hurricanes, but there has been a sharp increase in extreme rainfall events associated with landfalling tropical cyclones--the kind of rainfall events most likely to cause damaging flooding. Image credit: Kunkel et al. (2010), "Recent increases in U.S. heavy precipitation associated with tropical cyclones", Geophysical Research Letters.

It is essential that we limit coastal development in vulnerable coastal areas, particularly along barrier islands, to reduce some of the astronomical price tags hurricanes are going to be causing in the future. Adoption and enforcement of strict building standards is also a must, as well as more reforms to the government's National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), which subsidizes development in high-risk coastal regions that private insurers won't touch. NFIP is now $25 - 30 billion in the red, thanks to Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Sandy. Reform of NFIP is already underway. In 2012, before Sandy hit, Congress passed the Biggert-Waters Flood Insurance Reform Act, which requires people with NFIP policies to pay large premium increases of about 25% per year over the next five years. Naturally, this move has caused major controversy.

References
Camargo, S., (2013), "Global and regional aspects of tropical cyclone activity in the CMIP5 models," J. Climate.

Emanuel, K.A., 2013, "Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century", PNAS, July 8, 2013, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1301293110

Groisman, Pavel Ya, et al., "Contemporary changes of the hydrological cycle over the contiguous United States: Trends derived from in situ observations," Journal of Hydrometeorology 5.1 (2004): 64-85.

Knutson et al., 2010, "Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change", Nature Geoscience 3, 157 - 163, Published online: 21 February 2010 | doi:10.1038/ngeo779

Knutson et al., 2013, Dynamical Downscaling Projections of 21st Century Atlantic Hurricane Activity: CMIP3 and CMIP5 Model-based Scenarios, Journal of Climate 2013 ; e-View
doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00539.1

Pielke, R.A, et al., 2008, "Normalized Hurricane Damage in the United States: 1900 - 2005," Natural Hazards Review, DOI:10.1061/ASCE1527-6988(2008)9:1(29)

Villarini, G, and G.A. Vecchi, 2012, "Twenty-first-century projections of North Atlantic tropical storms from CMIP5 models," Nature Clim. Change 2:604–607.

Related posts
Global warming and the frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes: model results, my 2010 blog post.

Climate Central's analysis of the new 2013 Kerry Emanuel paper.

Goodbye, Miami: Jeff Goodell's sobering 2013 article in Rolling Stone on the challenges Miami faces due to sea level rise and hurricanes.


What the official climate assessments say about climate change and hurricanes
The 2013 IPCC report gives “low confidence”--a 20% chance--that we have observed a human-caused increase in intense hurricanes in some parts of the world. This is a reduction in odds from the 2007 report, which said that it was more likely than not (greater than 50% chance.) The IPCC likely took note of a landmark 2010 review paper, "Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change", authored by ten top hurricane scientists, which concluded that the U.S. had not seen any long-term increase in landfalling tropical storms and hurricanes, and that "it remains uncertain whether past changes in tropical cyclone activity have exceeded the variability expected from natural causes." The 2013 IPCC report predicts that there is a greater than 50% chance (more likely than not) that we will see a human-caused increase in intense hurricanes by 2100 in some regions; this is also a reduction from the 2007 report, which said this would be likely (66% chance or higher.)

The May 2014 United States National Climate Assessment found that “The intensity, frequency, and duration of North Atlantic hurricanes, as well as the frequency of the strongest (Category 4 and 5) hurricanes, have all increased since the early 1980s. The relative contributions of human and natural causes to these increases are still uncertain. Hurricane-associated storm intensity and rainfall rates are projected to increase as the climate continues to warm.”

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 2501. Neapolitan:
Because if they don't, they get bombarded by people asking, "What's wrong with the NHC?! Why aren't they watching that swirl by the Windward Islands?! Are they asleep?!?! WAKE UP, GUYS!!!!!!!!!!!!!"

Or something like that. ;-)


No, they issue a 0% to let people know they are watching it for further development beyond 48 hours. To think the NHC cares of what is said about them on this blog by a bunch amateurs is kind of immature on your part.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 3327
Quoting 2491. weatherlover94:



All is quiet
I ,love it!!! no hurricanes this year.
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 27 Comments: 53562
Quoting 2513. SouthernIllinois:

I will have to write to them. They on Twitter???


Twit as Gro would say.....
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2514. VR46L
Quoting 2479. 69Viking:


That's awesome, good for you! Now do me a favor and keep those storms up North and don't send them South which is where I have a feeling they're going to go! The storms we got last night originated from the center of the country earlier in the day and they've given us a 50% chance of storms today. We don't need that after another 1.25" of rain last night. At least the second batch of storms fizzled as it moved through.

BTW, good morning everyone from a soggy NW Florida!


I have heard how much you guys in te west part of the Panhandle is getting .. Its like it never ending thunder and rain :( Its even worse than my neck of the woods
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6927
Good Morning. Here is the current radar for that wave passing through the Windward Islands. Not expected to develop per NHC/Dr. Avila but a nice looking wave considering this early August lull and the dry air surrounding it.

Link
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Quoting 2505. SouthernIllinois:

Since when does the NHC read this blog and is influenced by the moods and desires of the bloggers here??? lol


They get questions in email and on their faceslapbook page.
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Quoting 2475. aislinnpaps:
How to catch a snake in the house:

5. RUN out the door and fling cookie sheet, colander and snake
.

6. Don't use a colander to catch a snake.

Yeah, true story. *G*



Hahahaha! OMG, that image just gave me such a laugh as probs exactly what would happen if was me! Especially after sliding cookie sheet under as to not hurt snake, and then run and fling it outside, it's just how it would transpire!

I laugh, but ugh, how terrible to have to deal with! I always thought it odd I never saw more than red racers in the desert where I grew up. Though did see a few BIG skins in the yard a few times that def did not come from red racers LOL There are adders round here, but I've not seen one, and don't really want to being their poisonous. I don't mind snakes in general and had a few as pets, but so long as not poisonous and not like 10 feet long or more....or found randomly in the house! LOL My main foe in the desert, was black widows!

Last few days been back to normal in N Wales, mid-60's or so, sunshine and showers. WOuld be happy for it to stay this way!
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FYI The 0Z Euro takes this wave in the eastern Caribbean and moves it over FL in 8 days. Makes perfect sense as there is a strong trough digging toward the Gulf in 7 to 8 days.

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 3327
2506. VR46L
Quoting 2500. SouthernIllinois:





You are going to get soaked Girl!!!
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6927
Seeing that the Caribbean blob is the only thing to talk about, are conditions supposed to get better, worse, or stay the same?
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Quoting 2483. Tropicsweatherpr:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED AUG 7 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ARE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
This one will probably go to Central America.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2484. weatherlover94:
my question is why bother putting up a 0 % ?
Because if they don't, they get bombarded by people asking, "What's wrong with the NHC?! Why aren't they watching that swirl by the Windward Islands?! Are they asleep?!?! WAKE UP, GUYS!!!!!!!!!!!!!"

Or something like that. ;-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13556


metsat dust image
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Quoting 2479. 69Viking:


That's awesome, good for you! Now do me a favor and keep those storms up North and don't send them South which is where I have a feeling they're going to go! The storms we got last night originated from the center of the country earlier in the day and they've given us a 50% chance of storms today. We don't need that after another 1.25" of rain last night. At least the second batch of storms fizzled as it moved through.

BTW, good morning everyone from a soggy NW Florida!

I do understand, the last to nights we have had "Storms". Monday night had 2.88" and last night 0.54".... Although last night was worse for Lightning popping everywhere....

Good Morning to everyone too,

Taco :o)
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Quoting 2484. weatherlover94:
my question is why bother putting up a 0 % ?


To let the public know they are monitoring the system.
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Quoting 2494. SouthernIllinois:

LOL. I'll be over in Rob's blog later and give you some rainfall reports. Got my shiny new rain gauge and it's ready to go!! Over .35" here already. Hoping for 5-6"! That would make me ECSTATIC!!! OH MY!!!! :-]

Nat


You don't think 5-6" would cause flooding? Careful what you wish for. We were in drought just two years ago and now we can't get the rain to stop!
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2493. ncstorm
Good Morning WU..sunny and beautiful here this morning..

last frame on Africa for GFS..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15683
Quoting 2423. sar2401:

Older than dirt. :-) I've lived a long and useful life so far, and sometimes, with age, comes wisdom, plus a whole bunch of stuff that hurts and doesn't work right.


I resemble that remark!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2487. GeoffreyWPB:
Atlantic Satellite...




All is quiet
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2483. Tropicsweatherpr:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED AUG 7 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ARE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


Well there's the mention.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 3327
Quoting 2444. HurricaneHunterJoe:
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
849 AM PST THU JAN 21 2010

...LOWEST MINIMUM PRESSURE RECORD BROKEN ON JANUARY 21...


THE LOWEST SEA LEVEL PRESSURE RECORDED AT SAN DIEGO LINDBERGH FIELD
IS 29.28 INCHES AT 0651 AM TODAY.
THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 29.37 INCHES IN MARCH 3 1983.

Can you believe that lowest barometric pressure since record keeping has been taking place in San Diego is 991.54mb? I know we got great weather but holy cow!


Temperature-wise, San Diego was the best place I've lived. But I was within 5 miles or so of the coast most my time there, inland was too hot for me in summer. Main thing lacking that I wanted was rain. But temperatures, predominantly temperate climate and unhumid, year round. Rarely too cold or hot by the coast. If I can find somewhere else like that, barr the earthquakes, lack of rain and too crowded, I'd be very happy LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2488. RTLSNK
Quoting 2478. seer2012:

12 gauge with #7 shot works well.(may mess the floor up a little)


ROFL, note to self: don't ever make this person mad!

heh heh heh

Temp in Macon, Georgia is 76.3 degrees.

I think I need to get to work in the yard before one
of my fellow Mods bans me for creating an off topic
discussion about snakes. LOL

Have fun you all, snake out.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Atlantic Satellite...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2476. StormTrackerScott:


NHC will have no choice but to mention this at 8am. Looks really good on sat.





Its likely the NHC won't say any thing
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115243
This snake was a baby rattlesnake. Usually I would wake my older sons since I usually found the snakes in the morning, but they had just left for the Air Force so it was me and the two younger ones.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
my question is why bother putting up a 0 % ?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED AUG 7 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ARE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14332
2482. pottery
Quoting aislinnpaps:


Call in my neighbors who like target practice, fire up the BBQ and buy a plane ticket for Trinidad?

LOL, Good Plan !

I'm out 'till this evening.
Stay safe, all.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2477. pottery:

I love that.

But what do you recommend if the Snake in question RTLSNK, is 6'6'' tall, weighs 200 lbs, and lives in Macon, Georgia ?

Me? I move out.


Call in my neighbors who like target practice, fire up the BBQ and buy a plane ticket for Trinidad?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2480. pottery
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


NHC will have no choice but to mention this at 8am. Looks really good on sat.


Looks good, yes.
Hoping to get some showers here from the band feature off to the south-east of that.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2474. SouthernIllinois:
BIG RAINS already is cypress BANGING on the tin roof. This is freaking awesome!!!



That's awesome, good for you! Now do me a favor and keep those storms up North and don't send them South which is where I have a feeling they're going to go! The storms we got last night originated from the center of the country earlier in the day and they've given us a 50% chance of storms today. We don't need that after another 1.25" of rain last night. At least the second batch of storms fizzled as it moved through.

BTW, good morning everyone from a soggy NW Florida!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2475. aislinnpaps:
How to catch a snake in the house:

1. Find something quick to put over it so it can't get under something where you can't get to it. Grab colander and cover snake.

2. Find something to slide under colander to be able to pick snake up. Slide cookie sheet under snake and colander carefully so as not to hurt snake.

3. Pick up cookie sheet to take snake outside. Cookie sheet is warped, so flip over so as not to have snake crawl out on you.

4. Colander is, of course, full of holes. Snake tongue flicks out constantly between hisses to 'kiss' hands holding colander.

5. RUN out the door and fling cookie sheet, colander and snake.

6. Don't use a colander to catch a snake.

Yeah, true story. *G*

12 gauge with #7 shot works well.(may mess the floor up a little)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2477. pottery
Quoting aislinnpaps:
How to catch a snake in the house:

1. Find something quick to put over it so it can't get under something where you can't get to it. Grab colander and cover snake.

2. Find something to slide under colander to be able to pick snake up. Slide cookie sheet under snake and colander carefully so as not to hurt snake.

3. Pick up cookie sheet to take snake outside. Cookie sheet is warped, so flip over so as not to have snake crawl out on you.

4. Colander is, of course, full of holes. Snake tongue flicks out constantly between hisses to 'kiss' hands holding colander.

5. RUN out the door and fling cookie sheet, colander and snake.

6. Don't use a colander to catch a snake.

Yeah, true story. *G*

I love that.

But what do you recommend if the Snake in question RTLSNK, is 6'6'' tall, weighs 200 lbs, and lives in Macon, Georgia ?

Me? I move out.
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Quoting 2466. MahFL:
I see a little bit of banding.



NHC will have no choice but to mention this at 8am. Looks really good on sat.


Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 3327
How to catch a snake in the house:

1. Find something quick to put over it so it can't get under something where you can't get to it. Grab colander and cover snake.

2. Find something to slide under colander to be able to pick snake up. Slide cookie sheet under snake and colander carefully so as not to hurt snake.

3. Pick up cookie sheet to take snake outside. Cookie sheet is warped, so flip over so as not to have snake crawl out on you.

4. Colander is, of course, full of holes. Snake tongue flicks out constantly between hisses to 'kiss' hands holding colander.

5. RUN out the door and fling cookie sheet, colander and snake.

6. Don't use a colander to catch a snake.

Yeah, true story. *G*
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
What is Levi's username? I saw some of his graphs referenced and wanted to let him know.
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Gyre north of Haiti is starting to pick up a bit of thunderstorm activity.
Member Since: December 28, 2006 Posts: 115 Comments: 1579
Quoting 2465. nrtiwlnvragn:


FIM Model Page


FIM Documentation

FIM Documentation goes way above my pay grade but you may get some basic understandings from it.


Thanks a bunch
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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