Hurricanes and Climate Change: Huge Dangers, Huge Unknowns

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:57 AM GMT on August 05, 2013

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Hurricane Sandy's enormous $65 billion price tag put that great storm in third place for the most expensive weather-related disaster in U.S. (and world) history, and six of the ten most expensive U.S. weather-related disasters since 1980 have been hurricanes. Thus, how the strongest hurricanes may be affected due a changing climate is a topic of critical concern. Since hurricanes are heat engines that extract heat energy from the oceans to power themselves, hurricane scientists are confident that the very strongest storms will get stronger by the end of the century, when Earth's land and ocean temperatures are expected to warm 2 - 3°C, to levels unmatched since the Eemian Era, 115,000 years ago. Computer modeling work consistently indicates that greenhouse warming will cause the globally averaged intensity of tropical cyclones to shift towards stronger storms, with intensity increases of 2–11% by 2100. But hurricanes are fussy creations, and are sensitive to wind shear and dry air. Although the strongest storms should get stronger when "perfect storm" conditions are present, these "perfect storm" conditions may become less frequent in the future, due to the presence of higher wind shear, altered atmospheric circulation patterns, or more dry air at mid levels of the atmosphere. Indeed, the climate models used to formulate the 2007 IPCC report suggested that we might see the strongest hurricanes getting stronger, but a decrease in the total number of hurricanes in the Atlantic (and worldwide) later this century. However, the latest set of models used to formulate the 2013 IPCC report left open the possibility that we might see in increase in the total number of hurricanes, and and increase in their intensity. Given the conflicting model results, we really don't know how global warming will affect the number of hurricanes and their intensity, but we run the risk of making one of humanity's greatest scourges worse.


Figure 1. The list of most expensive U.S. weather-related disasters since 1980 is dominated by hurricanes.

Climate models and hurricane frequency
The database we have on historical hurricanes does not extend far enough into the past and is not of high enough quality to make many judgements on how human-caused climate change may be affecting these great storms. A landmark 2010 review paper, "Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change", authored by ten top hurricane scientists concluded that the U.S. has not seen any long-term increase in landfalling tropical storms and hurricanes, and that "it remains uncertain whether past changes in tropical cyclone activity have exceeded the variability expected from natural causes" (tropical cyclone is the generic term which encompasses tropical depressions, tropical storms, hurricanes, and typhoons.) Based in part on modeling studies using climate models run for the 2007 IPCC report, the scientists concluded that "it is likely that global mean tropical cyclone frequency will either decrease or remain unchanged owing to greenhouse warming." For example, one of the modeling studies the review paper quoted, Knutson et al. (2008), "Simulated reduction in Atlantic hurricane frequency under twenty-first-century warming conditions", projected a decrease in Atlantic tropical storms by 27% and hurricanes by 18% by the end of the century. An important reason that their model predicted these decreases was due to a predicted increase in wind shear. As I explain in my wind shear tutorial, a large change of wind speed with height over a hurricane creates a shearing force that tends to tear the storm apart. The amount of wind shear is critical in determining whether a hurricane can form or survive.

But a July 2013 study by MIT's Dr. Kerry Emanuel, "Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century", challenged this result. Dr. Emanuel argued that tropical cyclones are likely to become both stronger and more frequent as the climate continues to warm. This increase is most likely to occur in Western North Pacific, with smaller increases in the Atlantic. Dr. Emanuel took output from six newer higher-resolution climate models used to formulate the 2013 IPCC report, and used the output to drive a high-resolution hurricane model. The simulations found that the global frequency of tropical cyclones would increase by 11% to 40% by 2100, with intensity increases as well. The combined effects produced a global increase in Category 3 and stronger hurricanes of 40%. The behavior of these strongest hurricanes is critical, since they do most of the damage we observe. Over the past century, Category 3 - 5 hurricanes accounted for 85% of US hurricane damage, despite representing only 24% of U.S. landfalling storms. Category 4 and 5 hurricanes made up only 6% of all U.S. landfalls, but accounted for 48% of all U.S. damage (if normalized to account for increases in U.S. population and wealth, see Pielke et al., 2008.)


Figure 2. Projected changes in tropical cyclone track density during the 2006-2100 period compared to the 1950-2005 period, using output from six climate models included in the 2013 IPCC report. The global frequency of tropical cyclones is predicted to increase by 11% to 40%, with the largest changes occurring in the Northwest Pacific off the coast of Japan. Smaller increases are predicted for the Atlantic and near Australia. Image credit: Kerry Emanuel, "Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century", Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, July 8, 2013, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1301293110.

However, a study by Knutson et al. (2013), using the same latest-generation climate models as used by Emanuel (2013), but using the output from the models to drive a different high-resolution hurricane model, found a 20% decrease in Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes by 2100. Two other 2013 studies by Villarini et al. and Camargo, also using output from the 2013 IPCC models, found essentially no change in Atlantic tropical cyclones. The reason for the differences, lies, in part, with how much global warming is assumed in the studies. Dr. Emanuel's study, which found an increase in tropical cyclone activity, assumed a worst-case warming situation (RCP 8.5), following the "business as usual" emissions path humanity is currently on. The Knutson et al. study, which found a decrease of 20% in Atlantic tropical cyclones, used a scenario (RCP 4.5) where it was assumed humans will wise up and cause about half of the worst-case greenhouse warming. The study found found "marginally significant" increases in Atlantic Category 4 and 5 hurricanes of 39% - 45% by 2100. These dramatically different results give credence to Dr. Emanuel statement at the end of his paper, "the response of tropical cyclones to projected climate change will remain uncertain for some time to come." The 2013 IPCC report also emphasized the high amount of uncertainty in how climate change might affect hurricanes, stating that there was "low confidence" that we have observed any increases in intense tropical cyclones due to human causes. However, since the 1970s, it is virtually certain (99 - 100% chance) that the frequency and intensity of hurricanes and tropical storms in the North Atlantic has increased, and there is medium confidence that a reduction in small air pollution particles (aerosols) over the North Atlantic caused part of this effect. The report's forecast for the future stated that it is "more likely than not" (50 - 100% chance) that human-caused climate change will cause a substantial increase in intense tropical cyclones in some ocean basins by 2100, with the Western North Pacific and Atlantic being at particular risk. Also, there will likely (66 - 100% chance) be an increase in both global mean tropical cyclone maximum wind speed and rain rates by 2100, and more likely than not (50 - 100% chance) that the increase in the most intense tropical cyclones will be larger than 10% in some basins.


Figure 3. Expected change in Atlantic Category 4 and 5 hurricanes per decade expected by the year 2100, according to Knutson et al. (2013), "Dynamical Downscaling Projections of 21st Century Atlantic Hurricane Activity: CMIP3 and CMIP5 Model-based Scenarios." This research used the latest generation of climate models from the 2013 IPCC report, and found "marginally significant" increases in Atlantic Category 4 and 5 hurricanes of 39% - 45% by 2100.

Commentary
Hurricane damages are currently doubling every ten years without the effect of climate change, according to Pielke et al., 2008. This is primarily due to the increasing population along the coast and increased wealth of the population. The authors theorize that the Great Miami Hurricane of 1926, a Category 4 monster that made a direct hit on Miami Beach, would have caused about $150 billion in damage had it hit in 2005. Thus, by 2015, the same hurricane would do $300 billion in damage, and $600 billion by 2025. This is without considering the impact that accelerating sea level rise will have on storm surge damages. Global sea level rise over the past decade has been about double what it was in the 20th century, and the rate of sea level rise is expected to increase further in the coming decades. Storm surge does the majority of damage in major hurricanes, and storm surges riding on top of higher sea levels are going to do a lot more damage in the coming decades. If we toss in the (controversial) increases in Category 3 and stronger storms like Dr. Emanuel suggests may occur, the hurricane damage math gets very impressive. We can also add onto that the relatively non-controversial increase in tropical cyclone rainfall of 20% expected by 2100, which will sharply increase damages due to fresh water river flooding. It is controversial whether or not we are already be seeing an increase in heavy precipitation events associated with tropical cyclones in the U.S., though. The total number of daily rainfall events exceeding 2" associated with tropical cyclones in the Southeast U.S. on a century time scale has not changed significantly, according to Groisman et al., 2004. But a 2010 study by Kunkel et al., "Recent increases in U.S. heavy precipitation associated with tropical cyclones", found that the number of Southeast U.S. tropical cyclone heavy precipitation events, defined as 1-in-5-year events, more than doubled between 1994 - 2008, compared to the long-term average from 1895 - 2008.


Figure 4. Time series of the 15-year running average (plotted at the end point of the 15-yr blocks) of a Tropical Cyclone Heavy Precipitation Index (red) and 15-year running average of U.S. landfalling hurricanes (blue). Note that there has been no long-term increase in U.S. landfalling hurricanes, but there has been a sharp increase in extreme rainfall events associated with landfalling tropical cyclones--the kind of rainfall events most likely to cause damaging flooding. Image credit: Kunkel et al. (2010), "Recent increases in U.S. heavy precipitation associated with tropical cyclones", Geophysical Research Letters.

It is essential that we limit coastal development in vulnerable coastal areas, particularly along barrier islands, to reduce some of the astronomical price tags hurricanes are going to be causing in the future. Adoption and enforcement of strict building standards is also a must, as well as more reforms to the government's National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), which subsidizes development in high-risk coastal regions that private insurers won't touch. NFIP is now $25 - 30 billion in the red, thanks to Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Sandy. Reform of NFIP is already underway. In 2012, before Sandy hit, Congress passed the Biggert-Waters Flood Insurance Reform Act, which requires people with NFIP policies to pay large premium increases of about 25% per year over the next five years. Naturally, this move has caused major controversy.

References
Camargo, S., (2013), "Global and regional aspects of tropical cyclone activity in the CMIP5 models," J. Climate.

Emanuel, K.A., 2013, "Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century", PNAS, July 8, 2013, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1301293110

Groisman, Pavel Ya, et al., "Contemporary changes of the hydrological cycle over the contiguous United States: Trends derived from in situ observations," Journal of Hydrometeorology 5.1 (2004): 64-85.

Knutson et al., 2010, "Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change", Nature Geoscience 3, 157 - 163, Published online: 21 February 2010 | doi:10.1038/ngeo779

Knutson et al., 2013, Dynamical Downscaling Projections of 21st Century Atlantic Hurricane Activity: CMIP3 and CMIP5 Model-based Scenarios, Journal of Climate 2013 ; e-View
doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00539.1

Pielke, R.A, et al., 2008, "Normalized Hurricane Damage in the United States: 1900 - 2005," Natural Hazards Review, DOI:10.1061/ASCE1527-6988(2008)9:1(29)

Villarini, G, and G.A. Vecchi, 2012, "Twenty-first-century projections of North Atlantic tropical storms from CMIP5 models," Nature Clim. Change 2:604–607.

Related posts
Global warming and the frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes: model results, my 2010 blog post.

Climate Central's analysis of the new 2013 Kerry Emanuel paper.

Goodbye, Miami: Jeff Goodell's sobering 2013 article in Rolling Stone on the challenges Miami faces due to sea level rise and hurricanes.


What the official climate assessments say about climate change and hurricanes
The 2013 IPCC report gives “low confidence”--a 20% chance--that we have observed a human-caused increase in intense hurricanes in some parts of the world. This is a reduction in odds from the 2007 report, which said that it was more likely than not (greater than 50% chance.) The IPCC likely took note of a landmark 2010 review paper, "Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change", authored by ten top hurricane scientists, which concluded that the U.S. had not seen any long-term increase in landfalling tropical storms and hurricanes, and that "it remains uncertain whether past changes in tropical cyclone activity have exceeded the variability expected from natural causes." The 2013 IPCC report predicts that there is a greater than 50% chance (more likely than not) that we will see a human-caused increase in intense hurricanes by 2100 in some regions; this is also a reduction from the 2007 report, which said this would be likely (66% chance or higher.)

The May 2014 United States National Climate Assessment found that “The intensity, frequency, and duration of North Atlantic hurricanes, as well as the frequency of the strongest (Category 4 and 5) hurricanes, have all increased since the early 1980s. The relative contributions of human and natural causes to these increases are still uncertain. Hurricane-associated storm intensity and rainfall rates are projected to increase as the climate continues to warm.”

Jeff Masters

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Two young boys , ages 5 and 7, were killed by an escaped pet store Python in Canada....So sad...
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Quoting 1885. PalmBeachWeather:
Doug...I know the feeling.....This is the first afternoon without a threat,So far


Down in the southern half of the state, we truly have a summer rainy season (subtropical climate). We get practically all our rainfall from June - Sept.

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1916. Patrap

Superstorms Sandy and Irene caused nearly $100bn of damage, roughly a third of it borne by insurers. Photograph: Mario Tama/Getty Images


Bold leadership from US insurers is needed to tackle climate change


There's a huge opportunity for insurers to take on the climate change challenge but the US insurance industry is only taking baby steps

Mindy Lubber
Guardian Professional, Tuesday 6 August 2013 16.34 EDT

The insurance industry's core business is to protect people – and businesses – in harm's way. With the rise of extreme weather across the US, insurers are increasingly connecting the dots between climate change and its costs.

The latest encouraging sign is last month's announcement that the Connecticut and Minnesota Departments of Insurance have joined their colleagues in California, New York and Washington in requiring insurers to disclose more information about climate change risks. More insurers than ever will now be asked to report on their exposure to weather-related threats and outline their strategies for managing these new risks.

When it comes to climate risks, I'm a big believer in the value of transparency. Not only will increased disclosure enable state regulators to plan for a new era of extreme weather events, but also it will force insurers to think harder about proactive responses to rising sea levels and other climate realities. We can't simply wish more damaging storms, fires and floods away; we must act.

Coastal states, such as New York and Connecticut, are clearly waking up to this fact. Both are are still rebuilding from back-to-back years of devastating hurricanes, Sandy and Irene, which caused nearly $100bn of direct damages and lost economic activity, roughly a third of it borne by private insurers. They're also seeing the government's newly revised 100-year floodplain maps showing significantly more risk exposure to future storms compared to previous maps, which hadn't been updated since 1983. About 32,000 more buildings in New York City are now considered to be at risk of flooding, a 91% jump.

Most importantly, these trends are triggering more honest discussion among insurers and regulators about appropriate price signals for property owners living in harm's way. New York and Connecticut homeowners are already seeing modest increases in private homeowners' insurance premiums and even bigger jumps in hurricane and wind-damage deductibles. There's also been renewed discussion about the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), which is mired in billions of debt due to a widening chasm between loss claims and premiums for the 5.5 million American homeowners and small businesses using the program. Last year's Congressional reforms to NFIP, requiring premium increases of about 25% a year over the next five years, are a welcome step.

But the fact remains that the US insurance industry is still paying only minimal attention to climate change, and even when they're acting, they're taking baby steps when big ones are needed. A Ceres analysis released in March showed that only 23 of 184 US insurers had comprehensive climate change strategies. More than half of these were foreign-owned.

It is also telling that 45 out of 50 state insurance commissioners – including all inland states, except Minnesota – are still not requiring insurers to provide climate risk disclosure. Given escalating climate-related losses far away from our coastlines, such as more costly wildfire, drought and crop losses, this is unfortunate.

It is encouraging that more US insurance executives are talking publicly about growing weather risks, but they're still refraining from linking it to the climate. Instead, it's mostly the European reinsurers who are meeting with Congress and talking to the media on the urgency of climate change. As Swiss Re Americas CEO J Eric Smith, told Time magazine last month, "What keeps us up at night is climate change. We see the long-term effect of climate change on society, and it really frightens us."

Reactive strategies where private insurers cut and run from high-risk areas, leaving consumers and local governments in the lurch, are not a satisfactory response. We've seen this already in many parts of the country, especially Florida where private insurers have largely abandoned the homeowners insurance market, thus forcing the state to take on the responsibility (and the huge financial exposure in the event of a big hurricane.)

Regulators and policymakers have also been overly reactive. Too often state insurance regulators balk at approving premium hikes that accurately reflect a property's true exposure to extreme weather events. The same can be said for Capitol Hill lawmakers, who are pushing now to delay increases in federal flood insurance premiums for a year, despite the program's $20bn-plus deficit. The House of Representatives supported such an amendment earlier this summer.

Proactive, bold leadership from US insurers is what we need, and it can come in many forms. Insurers must update their risk models to plan for future weather, not the storms of the past. With that information in hand, they should work more closely with regulators to set the right price signals that balance risks and consumer needs. Insurers can help communities plan for a warmer future – via stronger land use planning and building codes and by offering insurance products that incentivise climate-resiliency. And, lastly, the insurance industry needs to support policies to curb the carbon pollution that is causing climate change in the first place.

Just as the insurance industry helped to improve auto safety by backing seat belt laws and fire security with strict smoke detector codes, it has a huge opportunity to help address the threat of climate change. And it is in the industry's best interests to take it on.

Mindy Lubber is president of Ceres, a US-based nonprofit organisation mobilising business leadership on climate change and other sustainability challenges
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Quoting 1900. washingtonian115:
Well if scientist can use computers to see what the climate is going to be in 2100 then perhaps 45 day forecast don't sound to nutty.But I call them HYPUweather for a reason.
C'mon now Washi they don't hype everything, that's like saying the NHC underplays everything when this blog seems to want every thunderstorm to develop into a tropical system.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8305
Quoting 1913. redwagon:


Thank you, very interesting. This so far appears the only feature that could become what FIM is seeing. In fact, GT may have even called the cyclogenesis area yesterday. No CV could get to TX by the 20th. Are there operable buoys nearby?


This is what I use

Link
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Quoting 1874. SLU:
An area of low pressure has formed near Barbados near 13n 59w this afternoon. The air pressures in the islands have dropped by 3mb in the last 6 hours. This may or may not be the usual daily pressure fluctuations but certainly an impressive but small wave of note is about to enter the Caribbean. The CMC was the only model to show this system 3 - 4 days ago but I discredited it. The CMC is gaining respect these days which is good.




Thank you, very interesting. This so far appears the only feature that could become what FIM is seeing. In fact, GT may have even called the cyclogenesis area yesterday. No CV could get to TX by the 20th. Are there operable buoys nearby?
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1912. Patrap
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Quoting 1909. GTstormChaserCaleb:
The founder of Accuweather graduated from a very well known and intellectual institution known as Penn State University. There meteorology program has connections to Accuweather. I am not saying we just rely on computer models, but a combination of good intuition and computers can make for a great forecast even in the long range. I mean isn't that the reason we are here to forsee future events? It would be boring if we only had the tools to forecast a day or two in advance.


I forecast another climate change blog entry when the tropics are not expected to develop anything worth tracking.
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Hypuweather...I have found the mets in behind this forecast.The image thing is not working..



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Quoting 1902. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Our computers aren't that advanced. We're lucky to get an accurate 10-day local weather forecast. The 45-day forecasts are based on little other than individual model runs that change significantly every cycle. There's no way you can accurately use this product.

InAccuweather is stupid and makes the weather community look bad.
The founder of Accuweather graduated from a very well known and intellectual institution known as Penn State University. There meteorology program has connections to Accuweather. I am not saying we just rely on computer models, but a combination of good intuition and computers can make for a great forecast even in the long range. I mean isn't that the reason we are here to forsee future events? It would be boring if we only had the tools to forecast a day or two in advance.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8305
I am just so over blaming everything on Climate Change...well...guess what folks...the earth has done nothing BUT CLIMATE CHANGE since it was born! Yes, man came along and changed a few things. But, there were also asteroids, volcanos and a whole slew of ORGANIC natural things that HAPPEN ALL THE TIME! Stop trying to tax me into oblivion to support every stupid country out there. end of story! It is all a political movement to support the UN!
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new surface map is out still show our Atlantic AOI/surface low & Trof and now shows a surface low forming off the W coast of Africa
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1906. nigel20
We had a bit of rain in central Jamaica, but nothing in eastern Jamaica.

Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8032
Quoting 1904. Doppler22:
There was a large wedge funnel cloud spotted near Morris, MN

Funnel over my house earlier. It turned sideways so I could see up it while it was spinning.
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There was a large wedge funnel cloud spotted near Morris, MN
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Quoting 1894. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Hmm...so why isn't it called Newton's Theory of Universal Gravitation then?


Because it's a law :))) Newton's Law of Universal Gravitation is an equation; Einstein's Theory of General Relativity explains why the law works.
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Quoting 1896. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Cool with advances in technology new supercomputer models will now be able to go out past 384 hrs. and be able to accurately predict weather patterns and storms farther out. Soon you will get a 7 day NHC cone to provide even more advanced warning of an approaching storm. My recommendation if you are going into meteorology, take the computer area of concentration that is where the future is at.

Our computers aren't that advanced. We're lucky to get an accurate 10-day local weather forecast. The 45-day forecasts are based on little other than individual model runs that change significantly every cycle. There's no way you can accurately use this product.

InAccuweather is stupid and makes the weather community look bad. It has for a long time.
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Quoting 1888. washingtonian115:
This is video of the Japan tsunami.I'm stil in awe of how nature can take things away just a easily and fast..
Link
If that ever happened on the East Coast here the lost of lives and damages would likely succeed that of 2 or more of the costliest hurricanes in Atlantic history.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8305
Well if scientist can use computers to see what the climate is going to be in 2100 then perhaps 45 day forecast don't sound to nutty.But I call them HYPUweather for a reason.
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Quoting 1895. TropicalAnalystwx13:
InAccuweather is insane.

Accuweather: You cannot be serious (new 45-day forecasts)

Why not just forecast years ahead?

From Meteo Memes, I'll remove it if I have to.
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1898. robj144
Quoting 1894. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Hmm...so why isn't it called Newton's Theory of Universal Gravitation then?


A scientific law is a conclusion of how objects behave (perhaps locally) based on repeated observations. A theory seeks to explain why a scientific process happens.
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1897. Patrap
Try not using Newtons Law when Going to the Moon and Back.

Good Luck.

I hope you don't get Gimbal Lock and skip on out into the ether ferever.

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Quoting 1895. TropicalAnalystwx13:
InAccuweather is insane.

Accuweather: You cannot be serious (new 45-day forecasts)
Cool with advances in technology new supercomputer models will now be able to go out past 384 hrs. and be able to accurately predict weather patterns and storms farther out. Soon you will get a 7 day NHC cone to provide even more advanced warning of an approaching storm. My recommendation if you are going into meteorology, take the computer area of concentration that is where the future is at.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8305
InAccuweather is insane.

Accuweather: You cannot be serious (new 45-day forecasts)
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Quoting 1892. goosegirl1:


As usual, I am late to the party :). I majored in biology, not physics, so someone correct me if I am wrong, but Newton's Law of Universal Gravitation is an equation that allows us to predict what will happen when a given object is dropped, but does not tell us why this happens. Einstein's General Theory of Relativity gives us a working model for why gravity works the way it does, and as in all theories, it is subject to update as new data is found.

So we can predict what will happen, but no one is certain why. We all know that gravity works, we can prove there is a force called gravity... but it's a theory.
Hmm...so why isn't it called Newton's Theory of Universal Gravitation then?
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8305
1893. SLU
Quoting 1887. RGVtropicalWx13:

That wave looks pretty healthy atm. Wouldn't be to surprised if this wave gets mentioned by the nhc sometime tonight or tomorrow if this holds up or keeps firing decent convection! And oh it's dmin there yet still has it's convection compared to Dorian which had only developed convection during dmax and poofed at dmin.


Yup. it looks great. Deserves a mention
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Quoting 1311. MahFL:


No, gravity is a law : Newton's law of universal gravitation.


As usual, I am late to the party :). I majored in biology, not physics, so someone correct me if I am wrong, but Newton's Law of Universal Gravitation is an equation that allows us to predict what will happen when a given object is dropped, but does not tell us why this happens. Einstein's General Theory of Relativity gives us a working model for why gravity works the way it does, and as in all theories, it is subject to update as new data is found.

So we can predict what will happen, but no one is certain why. We all know that gravity works, we can prove there is a force called gravity... but it's a theory.
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I wish I was back in Minnesota again as severe thunderstorms have formed. Some storms are already tornado warned and a tornado watch is in effect for much of central MN. Of course, when I was in the Minneapolis area there wasn't a cloud in the sky it seemed. :/
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Quoting 1861. MiamiHurricanes09:
Henriette developing a very compact eye.



Very powerful-looking storm. Glad it's so far from land.
Member Since: July 9, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 738
1889. Patrap
Living with climate change in Greenland - in pictures

Joe Raedle joined Getty Images in 2000 and is based in Miami. His work has varied from outlandish festivities in the bayous of Louisiana, to the mountain peaks of Afghanistan and the deserts of Iraq.

Here, he covers the landscape again, capturing images of Greenlanders adapt to the changing climate as researchers from the National Science Foundation and other organisations study the melting glaciers and the long-term ramifications for the world.


Potato farmer Arnaq Egede stands on the front steps of her home in Qaqortoq. The farm, the largest in Greenland, has seen an extended growing season due to climate change
Photograph: Joe Raedle/Getty Images
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This is video of the Japan tsunami.I'm stil in awe of how nature can take things away just a easily and fast..
Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1874. SLU:
An area of low pressure has formed near Barbados near 13n 59w this afternoon. The air pressures in the islands have dropped by 3mb in the last 6 hours. This may or may not be the usual daily pressure fluctuations but certainly an impressive but small wave of note is about to enter the Caribbean. The CMC was the only model to show this system 3 - 4 days ago but I discredited it. The CMC is gaining respect these days which is good.



That wave looks pretty healthy atm. Wouldn't be to surprised if this wave gets mentioned by the nhc sometime tonight or tomorrow if this holds up or keeps firing decent convection! And oh it's dmin there yet still has it's convection compared to Dorian which had only developed convection during dmax and poofed at dmin.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1886. Patrap
Noaa report says Arctic sea ice is disappearing at unprecedented pace
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration climate study puts 2012 among the 10 warmest years on record


The Arctic lost record amounts of sea ice last year and is changing at an unprecedented pace due to climate change, a landmark climate study said on Tuesday.

Last year was among the 10 warmest years on record – ranking eighth or ninth depending on the data set, according to a report led by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa). The year 2012 also saw record greenhouse gas emissions, with concentrations of carbon dioxide and other warming gasses reaching a global average of 392.7 parts per million for the year.

"The findings are striking," Kathryn Sullivan, Noaa's acting administrator, said on a conference call. "Our planet as a whole is becoming a warmer place."

The scientists were reluctant to point directly to the cause of the striking changes in the climate. But the annual reports are typically used by the federal government to prepare for the future, and in June president Barack Obama used his climate address to direct government agencies to begin planning for decades of warming atmosphere and rising seas.

The biggest changes in the climate in 2012 were in the Arctic and in Greenland, said the report, which is an annual exercise by a team of American and British scientists. The Arctic warmed at about twice the rate of lower latitudes, the report found. By June 2012, snow cover had fallen to its lowest levels since the record began. By September 2012, sea-ice cover had retreated to its lowest levels since the beginning of satellite records, falling to 1.32 million square miles.

That was, the report noted, a whopping 18% lower than the previous low, set in 2007, and a staggering 54% lower than the mark for 1980.

The changes were widespread on land as well, with record warm permafrost temperatures in Alaska and in the Canadian Arctic, the report's authors noted. On 11 July last year, Greenland experienced surface melting on 97% of the ice sheet. The record-breaking events indicate an era of "new normal" for the climate, the researchers said.

"The record or near-records being reported from year to year in the Arctic are no longer anomalies or exceptions," said Jackie Richter-Menge, a civil engineer with the US army corps of engineers. "Really they have become the rule for us, or the norm that we see in the Arctic and that we expect to see for the foreseeable future."

That ice melt was also a major cause of sea-level rise, the report found. Global sea levels rose to record highs last year, after being depressed during the first half of 2011 because of the effects of La Niña. The average global sea level last year was 1.4in above the 1993-2010 average.

"Over the past seven years of so, it appears that the ice melt is contributing more than twice as much to the global sea level rise compared with warming waters," said Jessica Blunden, a climatologist at Noaa's national climactic data centre.
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Quoting 1884. PensacolaDoug:
Big thunderstorm with lots lightening just rolled over the west side P'cola. Happens everyday here lately.
Doug...I know the feeling.....This is the first afternoon without a threat,So far
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5864
Big thunderstorm with lots lightning just rolled over the west side P'cola. Happens everyday here lately.
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Quoting 1880. wxchaser97:

Just because the models aren't showing development doesn't mean we can't/won't get a TC. Chantal, and to a degree Dorian, are examples of this. There could be a spin-up or two before the season get's into full gear.

Exactly.
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In about 3-5 days attention will shift towards the Cape-Verde Islands as a vigorous Tropical Wave with a low pressure will emerge off the coast of Africa. FIM, GFS, CMC, and Euro all show brief development of some kind before the storm pulls north into cooler waters. CMC has the most western bias.

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8305
1881. Patrap
Southern WFO sites


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Quoting 1871. SuperStorm093:
the only model that was showing some type of TS/Hurricane in the next weeks was the FIM and now that is gone too. LULL here we come.

Just because the models aren't showing development doesn't mean we can't/won't get a TC. Chantal, and to a degree Dorian, are examples of this. There could be a spin-up or two before the season get's into full gear.
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1879. Skyepony (Mod)
Henriette TRMM pass. Click pic for quicktime movie.
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
359 PM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL STEVENS COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

* UNTIL 430 PM CDT

* AT 358 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 10 MILES WEST OF MORRIS...AND MOVING EAST AT 40
MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO
ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS
WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. TREE DAMAGE IS
LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MORRIS...ALBERTA AND HANCOCK.
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
350 PM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN RANSOM COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...
NORTHERN RICHLAND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...

* UNTIL 430 PM CDT

* AT 349 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTH OF LEONARD...AND MOVING EAST AT
25 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO
ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS
WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. TREE DAMAGE IS
LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
BARRIE AROUND 400 PM CDT.
WALCOTT AROUND 425 PM CDT.
COLFAX AND CHRISTINE AROUND 430 PM CDT.
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Quoting 1871. SuperStorm093:
the only model that was showing some type of TS/Hurricane in the next weeks was the FIM and now that is gone too. LULL here we come.
Depends on which resolution you looks at. FIM-7 Still shows it, just not a strong as recent runs.

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8305
1874. SLU
An area of low pressure has formed near Barbados near 13n 59w this afternoon. The air pressures in the islands have dropped by 3mb in the last 6 hours. This may or may not be the usual daily pressure fluctuations but certainly an impressive but small wave of note is about to enter the Caribbean. The CMC was the only model to show this system 3 - 4 days ago but I discredited it. The CMC is gaining respect these days which is good.


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This looks nearly exactly like "rinse, repeat" from a couple of weeks ago. Talk about deja vu! ;)




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ULL north of Hispaniola filling in, I suppose conditions will start to turn favorable as high pressure builds in aloft.

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8305
the only model that was showing some type of TS/Hurricane in the next weeks was the FIM and now that is gone too. LULL here we come.
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Doug's closing in on a severe warned storm in western MN Live.
Live Video Link
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.