Hurricanes and Climate Change: Huge Dangers, Huge Unknowns

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:57 AM GMT on August 05, 2013

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Hurricane Sandy's enormous $65 billion price tag put that great storm in third place for the most expensive weather-related disaster in U.S. (and world) history, and six of the ten most expensive U.S. weather-related disasters since 1980 have been hurricanes. Thus, how the strongest hurricanes may be affected due a changing climate is a topic of critical concern. Since hurricanes are heat engines that extract heat energy from the oceans to power themselves, hurricane scientists are confident that the very strongest storms will get stronger by the end of the century, when Earth's land and ocean temperatures are expected to warm 2 - 3°C, to levels unmatched since the Eemian Era, 115,000 years ago. Computer modeling work consistently indicates that greenhouse warming will cause the globally averaged intensity of tropical cyclones to shift towards stronger storms, with intensity increases of 2–11% by 2100. But hurricanes are fussy creations, and are sensitive to wind shear and dry air. Although the strongest storms should get stronger when "perfect storm" conditions are present, these "perfect storm" conditions may become less frequent in the future, due to the presence of higher wind shear, altered atmospheric circulation patterns, or more dry air at mid levels of the atmosphere. Indeed, the climate models used to formulate the 2007 IPCC report suggested that we might see the strongest hurricanes getting stronger, but a decrease in the total number of hurricanes in the Atlantic (and worldwide) later this century. However, the latest set of models used to formulate the 2013 IPCC report left open the possibility that we might see in increase in the total number of hurricanes, and and increase in their intensity. Given the conflicting model results, we really don't know how global warming will affect the number of hurricanes and their intensity, but we run the risk of making one of humanity's greatest scourges worse.


Figure 1. The list of most expensive U.S. weather-related disasters since 1980 is dominated by hurricanes.

Climate models and hurricane frequency
The database we have on historical hurricanes does not extend far enough into the past and is not of high enough quality to make many judgements on how human-caused climate change may be affecting these great storms. A landmark 2010 review paper, "Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change", authored by ten top hurricane scientists concluded that the U.S. has not seen any long-term increase in landfalling tropical storms and hurricanes, and that "it remains uncertain whether past changes in tropical cyclone activity have exceeded the variability expected from natural causes" (tropical cyclone is the generic term which encompasses tropical depressions, tropical storms, hurricanes, and typhoons.) Based in part on modeling studies using climate models run for the 2007 IPCC report, the scientists concluded that "it is likely that global mean tropical cyclone frequency will either decrease or remain unchanged owing to greenhouse warming." For example, one of the modeling studies the review paper quoted, Knutson et al. (2008), "Simulated reduction in Atlantic hurricane frequency under twenty-first-century warming conditions", projected a decrease in Atlantic tropical storms by 27% and hurricanes by 18% by the end of the century. An important reason that their model predicted these decreases was due to a predicted increase in wind shear. As I explain in my wind shear tutorial, a large change of wind speed with height over a hurricane creates a shearing force that tends to tear the storm apart. The amount of wind shear is critical in determining whether a hurricane can form or survive.

But a July 2013 study by MIT's Dr. Kerry Emanuel, "Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century", challenged this result. Dr. Emanuel argued that tropical cyclones are likely to become both stronger and more frequent as the climate continues to warm. This increase is most likely to occur in Western North Pacific, with smaller increases in the Atlantic. Dr. Emanuel took output from six newer higher-resolution climate models used to formulate the 2013 IPCC report, and used the output to drive a high-resolution hurricane model. The simulations found that the global frequency of tropical cyclones would increase by 11% to 40% by 2100, with intensity increases as well. The combined effects produced a global increase in Category 3 and stronger hurricanes of 40%. The behavior of these strongest hurricanes is critical, since they do most of the damage we observe. Over the past century, Category 3 - 5 hurricanes accounted for 85% of US hurricane damage, despite representing only 24% of U.S. landfalling storms. Category 4 and 5 hurricanes made up only 6% of all U.S. landfalls, but accounted for 48% of all U.S. damage (if normalized to account for increases in U.S. population and wealth, see Pielke et al., 2008.)


Figure 2. Projected changes in tropical cyclone track density during the 2006-2100 period compared to the 1950-2005 period, using output from six climate models included in the 2013 IPCC report. The global frequency of tropical cyclones is predicted to increase by 11% to 40%, with the largest changes occurring in the Northwest Pacific off the coast of Japan. Smaller increases are predicted for the Atlantic and near Australia. Image credit: Kerry Emanuel, "Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century", Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, July 8, 2013, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1301293110.

However, a study by Knutson et al. (2013), using the same latest-generation climate models as used by Emanuel (2013), but using the output from the models to drive a different high-resolution hurricane model, found a 20% decrease in Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes by 2100. Two other 2013 studies by Villarini et al. and Camargo, also using output from the 2013 IPCC models, found essentially no change in Atlantic tropical cyclones. The reason for the differences, lies, in part, with how much global warming is assumed in the studies. Dr. Emanuel's study, which found an increase in tropical cyclone activity, assumed a worst-case warming situation (RCP 8.5), following the "business as usual" emissions path humanity is currently on. The Knutson et al. study, which found a decrease of 20% in Atlantic tropical cyclones, used a scenario (RCP 4.5) where it was assumed humans will wise up and cause about half of the worst-case greenhouse warming. The study found found "marginally significant" increases in Atlantic Category 4 and 5 hurricanes of 39% - 45% by 2100. These dramatically different results give credence to Dr. Emanuel statement at the end of his paper, "the response of tropical cyclones to projected climate change will remain uncertain for some time to come." The 2013 IPCC report also emphasized the high amount of uncertainty in how climate change might affect hurricanes, stating that there was "low confidence" that we have observed any increases in intense tropical cyclones due to human causes. However, since the 1970s, it is virtually certain (99 - 100% chance) that the frequency and intensity of hurricanes and tropical storms in the North Atlantic has increased, and there is medium confidence that a reduction in small air pollution particles (aerosols) over the North Atlantic caused part of this effect. The report's forecast for the future stated that it is "more likely than not" (50 - 100% chance) that human-caused climate change will cause a substantial increase in intense tropical cyclones in some ocean basins by 2100, with the Western North Pacific and Atlantic being at particular risk. Also, there will likely (66 - 100% chance) be an increase in both global mean tropical cyclone maximum wind speed and rain rates by 2100, and more likely than not (50 - 100% chance) that the increase in the most intense tropical cyclones will be larger than 10% in some basins.


Figure 3. Expected change in Atlantic Category 4 and 5 hurricanes per decade expected by the year 2100, according to Knutson et al. (2013), "Dynamical Downscaling Projections of 21st Century Atlantic Hurricane Activity: CMIP3 and CMIP5 Model-based Scenarios." This research used the latest generation of climate models from the 2013 IPCC report, and found "marginally significant" increases in Atlantic Category 4 and 5 hurricanes of 39% - 45% by 2100.

Commentary
Hurricane damages are currently doubling every ten years without the effect of climate change, according to Pielke et al., 2008. This is primarily due to the increasing population along the coast and increased wealth of the population. The authors theorize that the Great Miami Hurricane of 1926, a Category 4 monster that made a direct hit on Miami Beach, would have caused about $150 billion in damage had it hit in 2005. Thus, by 2015, the same hurricane would do $300 billion in damage, and $600 billion by 2025. This is without considering the impact that accelerating sea level rise will have on storm surge damages. Global sea level rise over the past decade has been about double what it was in the 20th century, and the rate of sea level rise is expected to increase further in the coming decades. Storm surge does the majority of damage in major hurricanes, and storm surges riding on top of higher sea levels are going to do a lot more damage in the coming decades. If we toss in the (controversial) increases in Category 3 and stronger storms like Dr. Emanuel suggests may occur, the hurricane damage math gets very impressive. We can also add onto that the relatively non-controversial increase in tropical cyclone rainfall of 20% expected by 2100, which will sharply increase damages due to fresh water river flooding. It is controversial whether or not we are already be seeing an increase in heavy precipitation events associated with tropical cyclones in the U.S., though. The total number of daily rainfall events exceeding 2" associated with tropical cyclones in the Southeast U.S. on a century time scale has not changed significantly, according to Groisman et al., 2004. But a 2010 study by Kunkel et al., "Recent increases in U.S. heavy precipitation associated with tropical cyclones", found that the number of Southeast U.S. tropical cyclone heavy precipitation events, defined as 1-in-5-year events, more than doubled between 1994 - 2008, compared to the long-term average from 1895 - 2008.


Figure 4. Time series of the 15-year running average (plotted at the end point of the 15-yr blocks) of a Tropical Cyclone Heavy Precipitation Index (red) and 15-year running average of U.S. landfalling hurricanes (blue). Note that there has been no long-term increase in U.S. landfalling hurricanes, but there has been a sharp increase in extreme rainfall events associated with landfalling tropical cyclones--the kind of rainfall events most likely to cause damaging flooding. Image credit: Kunkel et al. (2010), "Recent increases in U.S. heavy precipitation associated with tropical cyclones", Geophysical Research Letters.

It is essential that we limit coastal development in vulnerable coastal areas, particularly along barrier islands, to reduce some of the astronomical price tags hurricanes are going to be causing in the future. Adoption and enforcement of strict building standards is also a must, as well as more reforms to the government's National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), which subsidizes development in high-risk coastal regions that private insurers won't touch. NFIP is now $25 - 30 billion in the red, thanks to Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Sandy. Reform of NFIP is already underway. In 2012, before Sandy hit, Congress passed the Biggert-Waters Flood Insurance Reform Act, which requires people with NFIP policies to pay large premium increases of about 25% per year over the next five years. Naturally, this move has caused major controversy.

References
Camargo, S., (2013), "Global and regional aspects of tropical cyclone activity in the CMIP5 models," J. Climate.

Emanuel, K.A., 2013, "Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century", PNAS, July 8, 2013, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1301293110

Groisman, Pavel Ya, et al., "Contemporary changes of the hydrological cycle over the contiguous United States: Trends derived from in situ observations," Journal of Hydrometeorology 5.1 (2004): 64-85.

Knutson et al., 2010, "Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change", Nature Geoscience 3, 157 - 163, Published online: 21 February 2010 | doi:10.1038/ngeo779

Knutson et al., 2013, Dynamical Downscaling Projections of 21st Century Atlantic Hurricane Activity: CMIP3 and CMIP5 Model-based Scenarios, Journal of Climate 2013 ; e-View
doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00539.1

Pielke, R.A, et al., 2008, "Normalized Hurricane Damage in the United States: 1900 - 2005," Natural Hazards Review, DOI:10.1061/ASCE1527-6988(2008)9:1(29)

Villarini, G, and G.A. Vecchi, 2012, "Twenty-first-century projections of North Atlantic tropical storms from CMIP5 models," Nature Clim. Change 2:604–607.

Related posts
Global warming and the frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes: model results, my 2010 blog post.

Climate Central's analysis of the new 2013 Kerry Emanuel paper.

Goodbye, Miami: Jeff Goodell's sobering 2013 article in Rolling Stone on the challenges Miami faces due to sea level rise and hurricanes.


What the official climate assessments say about climate change and hurricanes
The 2013 IPCC report gives “low confidence”--a 20% chance--that we have observed a human-caused increase in intense hurricanes in some parts of the world. This is a reduction in odds from the 2007 report, which said that it was more likely than not (greater than 50% chance.) The IPCC likely took note of a landmark 2010 review paper, "Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change", authored by ten top hurricane scientists, which concluded that the U.S. had not seen any long-term increase in landfalling tropical storms and hurricanes, and that "it remains uncertain whether past changes in tropical cyclone activity have exceeded the variability expected from natural causes." The 2013 IPCC report predicts that there is a greater than 50% chance (more likely than not) that we will see a human-caused increase in intense hurricanes by 2100 in some regions; this is also a reduction from the 2007 report, which said this would be likely (66% chance or higher.)

The May 2014 United States National Climate Assessment found that “The intensity, frequency, and duration of North Atlantic hurricanes, as well as the frequency of the strongest (Category 4 and 5) hurricanes, have all increased since the early 1980s. The relative contributions of human and natural causes to these increases are still uncertain. Hurricane-associated storm intensity and rainfall rates are projected to increase as the climate continues to warm.”

Jeff Masters

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Overshooting tops along the northern eyewall covering the eye...same thing happened with Gil last week when it was trying to clear out its eye.

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1968. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting 1962. sar2401:

Umm....OK....what?


like this all credits too author

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54827
Quoting 1908. Goodenough:
I am just so over blaming everything on Climate Change...well...guess what folks...the earth has done nothing BUT CLIMATE CHANGE since it was born! Yes, man came along and changed a few things. But, there were also asteroids, volcanos and a whole slew of ORGANIC natural things that HAPPEN ALL THE TIME! Stop trying to tax me into oblivion to support every stupid country out there. end of story! It is all a political movement to support the UN!

That's a powerful lot of nonsense and misunderstanding for one paragraph.

1. That climate has changed before and changes for natural reasons is irrelevant. The Earth's human population is over seven billion, unlike in previous changes.

2. No one is trying to tax you into oblivion. If they wanted to tax you into oblivion, they could do so with relative ease and with no excuse needed.



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1962. sar2401:

Umm....OK....what?

I second this.
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Is it true they found mutated fish in the water after Katrina?.I've heard reports but never looked into it myself.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17474
1963. Grothar
Quoting 1885. PalmBeachWeather:
Doug...I know the feeling.....This is the first afternoon without a threat,So far


Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26814
1962. sar2401
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:

Funnel over my house earlier. It turned sideways so I could see up it while it was spinning.

Umm....OK....what?
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That wave about the enter the Caribbean is looking interesting- 3 mb drop at Barbados as mentioned by another member. Only hindrance is dry air and shear ahead, but if a low shear environment is created by the wave and moves in tandem with it, that may favor persistence as the wave moves into the Western Caribbean by late in the week.
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man the GFS runs so slow now.
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Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8662
1958. Patrap
Quoting 1922. moonlightcowboy:
Pat, funny how I've not really thought much about this before now, not really, having been more concerned with the human tragedy, the economic climate, and our own self/friend preservation on this side of the line, I guess. But, it seems maybe, that one of the best places to have been in NOLA during Katrina could have well been at the Audubon Zoo.

And, this dated article reflects why. They were prepared, and knew they'd mostly be on their own. What a testimony for being ready! ;)

New Orleans Zoo Animals Survive Katrina's Wrath

And, you know, Pat, they all ask for you there! ;)


That Area, near where I live by 2 miles, is the High Point..and a Favored Spot for Viewing the River,..

High Spring River you can put yer feets in there sometimes too.

During Issac the River was flowing North for a few Hours too.


Its called the "Fly".




The riverside portion of New Orleans' Audubon Park is known colloquially as "The Fly," and it's one of the best places for outdoor recreation in the city! Whether you're on a first date, practicing sports, playing with your children, or just watching the boats on the river roll lazily by, you're sure to find fun and relaxation at this local hot spot!

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
Quoting 1888. washingtonian115:
This is video of the Japan tsunami.I'm stil in awe of how nature can take things away just a easily and fast..
Link
Awesome. Expecting Godzilla to make an appearance.
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1956. GetReal
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1955. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
like mlc said temps are just a part tchp and depth is key

min 100 ft down more the better or I should say worse
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54827
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8662
Quoting 1923. nigel20:
Today is independence day in Jamaica...you can have look at my blog if you like to. TIA!

Happy Independence Day, Jamaica


Happy Independence Day Nigel, we like to say we all live in Paradise on our islands in the sea but there is still lots of work we can do in the coming years to make each of our island nations better places for all who live in them.
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1952. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting 1951. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Sea surface temperatures in the Caribbean don't peak until September. A significant rebound is very much possible.
we will see
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54827
Quoting 1945. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
and its getting later into the year so not as strong of rebound is possible

Sea surface temperatures in the Caribbean don't peak until September. A significant rebound is very much possible.
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1950. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting 1946. seer2012:

Gro saw it first!!
gro has seen everything first and some of it is not pretty
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54827
Quoting 1944. TropicalAnalystwx13:
The Saharan Air Layer outbreak has caused ocean temperatures in the Caribbean to cool to levels not seen in quite a while. 0.265C below average, just days before it was 0.59C above average.



It'll bounce back just as quickly as it chilled. No fret, the Caribbean is more than capable of supporting ample fuel for any tropical system, and especially so towards the northwestern Caribbean with the high TCHP. The larger problem to cyclogenesis in the Caribbean is shear.
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1948. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
sun's angle is already heading south every day further and further
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54827
1947. nigel20
Quoting 1936. SLU:


Yes redwagon. This wave could be a player in a couple days if it holds together.

Hi SLU! How was the weather in St Lucia today? We had some moderate showers in central Jamaica today...nothing in eastern Jamaica though.

BTW, what do you think about the CPL game later today?
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8311
Quoting 1940. hurricanes2018:
I saw it to.

Gro saw it first!!
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1945. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting 1944. TropicalAnalystwx13:
The Saharan Air Layer outbreak has caused ocean temperatures in the Caribbean to cool to levels not seen in quite a while. 0.265C below average, just days before it was 0.59C above average.

and its getting later into the year so not as strong of rebound is possible
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54827
The Saharan Air Layer outbreak has caused ocean temperatures in the Caribbean to cool to levels not seen in quite a while. 0.265C below average, just days before it was 0.59C above average. Waters should warm much like the East Atlantic did.

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1943. sar2401
Quoting Doppler22:

Link

Another story is here. This is a very suspicious case. Pythons don't just slither around strangling prey. Once they have it, they eat it. I think the Mounties will be looking very closely at the autopsy results.
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
507 PM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN KANDIYOHI COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

* UNTIL 545 PM CDT

* AT 506 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 16 MILES EAST OF BENSON...AND MOVING EAST AT 40
MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO
ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS
WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. TREE DAMAGE IS
LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SUNBURG...NEW LONDON AND SPICER.
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Quoting 1934. SFLWeatherman:
Here in WPB we are at 46.26 the average is 33.88


Over here on the S.W. coast precipitation drops off big time in October. It's amazing how rainy Sept is and then it just stops raining in Oct.
On those rare years, we get an Oct. storm (like Wilma).
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8121
Quoting 1926. wunderweatherman123:
look at the monster coming off africa
I saw it to.
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 46 Comments: 77510
Henriette generating 15-20 foot waves.

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8662
someone will get some heavy rain soon.
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 46 Comments: 77510
Quoting 1701. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Also the EPAC season is up to the "H" named storm while the Atlantic is up to the "D" named storm. I will be the first to say if the EPAC remains active the Atlantic won't be as active, still though a prediction for 15 named storms is active. By the way I am comparing the last 3 seasons to this one and saying it won't be as active as those 3 which would be considered hyper-active hurricane seasons. A season like 2002 or 2004 seems reasonable for this year.

The EPAC always tends to be active July-August, because the EPAC peaks earlier than the Atlantic. This activity will swing over to the Atlantic in the Coming Weeks as the EPAC begins to head downhill, In activity, for the rest of the season. Never judge what's happening currently, and whats forecasted currently to be capable of giving a well in-depth forecast of what's to come. Give the season Time. 2010 Had less storms than 2013 does currently, and it still managed to pull off 19 Named Storms. The season isn't in full gear. Patience.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1936. SLU
Quoting 1913. redwagon:


Thank you, very interesting. This so far appears the only feature that could become what FIM is seeing. In fact, GT may have even called the cyclogenesis area yesterday. No CV could get to TX by the 20th. Are there operable buoys nearby?


Yes redwagon. This wave could be a player in a couple days if it holds together.
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Chasers are streaming those warned T storms in the high plains.
I would provide links to those forums, but I believe that's against forum rules.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8121
Here in WPB we are at 46.26 the average is 33.88
Quoting 1929. Sfloridacat5:
Here's the yearly breakdown (average precipitation by month) for Ft. Myers (my location).
Summer rainy season. The majority of the year, it's fairly dry. A lot of people don't know that about S.Florida.

Fort Myers Precipitation
Jan - 1.8
Feb - 2.2
Mar - 3.1
Apr - 1.1
May - 3.9
Jun - 9.5
Jul - 8.3
Aug - 9.7
Sep - 7.8

Oct - 2.9
Nov - 1.6
Dec - 1.5
Yearly total (average) 53.4"


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Quoting 1932. sar2401:

Do you have a link to this story? It seems almost impossible that two boys, assuming that at least one of them was able to run, could have been killed by one python. There must be more to this stroy.

Link
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1932. sar2401
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Two young boys , ages 5 and 7, were killed by an escaped pet store Python in Canada....So sad...

Do you have a link to this story? It seems almost impossible that two boys, assuming that at least one of them was able to run, could have been killed by one python. There must be more to this stroy.
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Quoting 1928. Naga5000:


You know, this whole climate model versus weather model thing comes up a lot and no one seems to want to address it. Climate models are not doing what weather models do. Weather models attempt to predict day to day events with high precision (huge inaccuracies in weather models over long forecast periods tend to result from poor initialization of weather conditions) Climate models, on the other hand, are looking at predictions of averages over time, not individual weather events (The initialization conditions don't rely on the same information as a weather forecast models, since they aren't trying to predict small scale day to day weather, they are actually quite accurate in regards to climatic averages over time) They are two completely different animals.

Not trying to start anything with you, Wash. Just wanted to address something I see come up a lot here. :)
Glad you addressed it in a respectful manner.No problems on this end :).
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17474
1930. nigel20
Quoting 1925. sar2401:

Happy Independence Day, Nigel, and to all the other Jamaicans. I know it's been a tough path sometimes.

Yeah, thanks much! I hope that the current measures that are being implemented will put Jamaica on firm economic footing.
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8311
Here's the yearly breakdown (average precipitation by month) for Ft. Myers (my location).
Summer rainy season. The majority of the year, it's fairly dry. A lot of people don't know that about S.Florida.

Fort Myers Precipitation
Jan - 1.8
Feb - 2.2
Mar - 3.1
Apr - 1.1
May - 3.9
Jun - 9.5
Jul - 8.3
Aug - 9.7
Sep - 7.8

Oct - 2.9
Nov - 1.6
Dec - 1.5
Yearly total (average) 53.4"


Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8121
Quoting 1900. washingtonian115:
Well if scientist can use computers to see what the climate is going to be in 2100 then perhaps 45 day forecast don't sound to nutty.But I call them HYPUweather for a reason.


You know, this whole climate model versus weather model thing comes up a lot and no one seems to want to address it. Climate models are not doing what weather models do. Weather models attempt to predict day to day events with high precision (huge inaccuracies in weather models over long forecast periods tend to result from poor initialization of weather conditions) Climate models, on the other hand, are looking at predictions of averages over time, not individual weather events (The initialization conditions don't rely on the same information as a weather forecast models, since they aren't trying to predict small scale day to day weather, they are actually quite accurate in regards to climatic averages over time) They are two completely different animals.

Not trying to start anything with you, Wash. Just wanted to address something I see come up a lot here. :)
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 3593
Nevermind, the warning was cancelled for Cheyenne
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look at the monster coming off africa
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1925. sar2401
Quoting nigel20:
Today is independence day in Jamaica...you can have look if you like to. TIA!

Happy Independence Day, Jamaica

Happy Independence Day, Nigel, and to all the other Jamaicans. I know it's been a tough path sometimes.
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1924. sar2401
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


Definitely scares the dog. He's hiding in the closet.

Your dog too, huh? I have a basset/beagle named "Nigel" (good name :-)...) and he is the best storm forecaster around. He starts acting nervous when storms are about a half-hour away. It doesn't matter what's on radar. If gets under my desk and starts carrying on, we are going to get a thunderstorm within 15 minutes. There are storms in the area now, but he's fast asleep on his little couch, so I know nothing is headed this way in the short term. I don't know how dogs know these things. I've heard they can feel small static charges through their paw pads. Whatever it is, it works.
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1923. nigel20
Today is independence day in Jamaica...you can have look at my blog if you like to. TIA!

Happy Independence Day, Jamaica
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8311
Pat, funny how I've not really thought much about this before now, not really, having been more concerned with the human tragedy, the economic climate, and our own self/friend preservation on this side of the line, I guess. But, it seems maybe, that one of the best places to have been in NOLA during Katrina could have well been at the Audubon Zoo.

And, this dated article reflects why. They were prepared, and knew they'd mostly be on their own. What a testimony for being ready! ;)

New Orleans Zoo Animals Survive Katrina's Wrath

And, you know, Pat, they all ask for you there! ;)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Man that is one potent looking wave coming off the coast, most models dont develop it or have it curving which I see happening.
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Anyways there is a kink in the ITCZ/monsoon trough which may be signaling the true beginning of the Cape-Verde season. Now to just get the environmental conditions right.

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8662
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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