Hurricanes and Climate Change: Huge Dangers, Huge Unknowns

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:57 AM GMT on August 05, 2013

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Hurricane Sandy's enormous $65 billion price tag put that great storm in third place for the most expensive weather-related disaster in U.S. (and world) history, and six of the ten most expensive U.S. weather-related disasters since 1980 have been hurricanes. Thus, how the strongest hurricanes may be affected due a changing climate is a topic of critical concern. Since hurricanes are heat engines that extract heat energy from the oceans to power themselves, hurricane scientists are confident that the very strongest storms will get stronger by the end of the century, when Earth's land and ocean temperatures are expected to warm 2 - 3°C, to levels unmatched since the Eemian Era, 115,000 years ago. Computer modeling work consistently indicates that greenhouse warming will cause the globally averaged intensity of tropical cyclones to shift towards stronger storms, with intensity increases of 2–11% by 2100. But hurricanes are fussy creations, and are sensitive to wind shear and dry air. Although the strongest storms should get stronger when "perfect storm" conditions are present, these "perfect storm" conditions may become less frequent in the future, due to the presence of higher wind shear, altered atmospheric circulation patterns, or more dry air at mid levels of the atmosphere. Indeed, the climate models used to formulate the 2007 IPCC report suggested that we might see the strongest hurricanes getting stronger, but a decrease in the total number of hurricanes in the Atlantic (and worldwide) later this century. However, the latest set of models used to formulate the 2013 IPCC report left open the possibility that we might see in increase in the total number of hurricanes, and and increase in their intensity. Given the conflicting model results, we really don't know how global warming will affect the number of hurricanes and their intensity, but we run the risk of making one of humanity's greatest scourges worse.


Figure 1. The list of most expensive U.S. weather-related disasters since 1980 is dominated by hurricanes.

Climate models and hurricane frequency
The database we have on historical hurricanes does not extend far enough into the past and is not of high enough quality to make many judgements on how human-caused climate change may be affecting these great storms. A landmark 2010 review paper, "Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change", authored by ten top hurricane scientists concluded that the U.S. has not seen any long-term increase in landfalling tropical storms and hurricanes, and that "it remains uncertain whether past changes in tropical cyclone activity have exceeded the variability expected from natural causes" (tropical cyclone is the generic term which encompasses tropical depressions, tropical storms, hurricanes, and typhoons.) Based in part on modeling studies using climate models run for the 2007 IPCC report, the scientists concluded that "it is likely that global mean tropical cyclone frequency will either decrease or remain unchanged owing to greenhouse warming." For example, one of the modeling studies the review paper quoted, Knutson et al. (2008), "Simulated reduction in Atlantic hurricane frequency under twenty-first-century warming conditions", projected a decrease in Atlantic tropical storms by 27% and hurricanes by 18% by the end of the century. An important reason that their model predicted these decreases was due to a predicted increase in wind shear. As I explain in my wind shear tutorial, a large change of wind speed with height over a hurricane creates a shearing force that tends to tear the storm apart. The amount of wind shear is critical in determining whether a hurricane can form or survive.

But a July 2013 study by MIT's Dr. Kerry Emanuel, "Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century", challenged this result. Dr. Emanuel argued that tropical cyclones are likely to become both stronger and more frequent as the climate continues to warm. This increase is most likely to occur in Western North Pacific, with smaller increases in the Atlantic. Dr. Emanuel took output from six newer higher-resolution climate models used to formulate the 2013 IPCC report, and used the output to drive a high-resolution hurricane model. The simulations found that the global frequency of tropical cyclones would increase by 11% to 40% by 2100, with intensity increases as well. The combined effects produced a global increase in Category 3 and stronger hurricanes of 40%. The behavior of these strongest hurricanes is critical, since they do most of the damage we observe. Over the past century, Category 3 - 5 hurricanes accounted for 85% of US hurricane damage, despite representing only 24% of U.S. landfalling storms. Category 4 and 5 hurricanes made up only 6% of all U.S. landfalls, but accounted for 48% of all U.S. damage (if normalized to account for increases in U.S. population and wealth, see Pielke et al., 2008.)


Figure 2. Projected changes in tropical cyclone track density during the 2006-2100 period compared to the 1950-2005 period, using output from six climate models included in the 2013 IPCC report. The global frequency of tropical cyclones is predicted to increase by 11% to 40%, with the largest changes occurring in the Northwest Pacific off the coast of Japan. Smaller increases are predicted for the Atlantic and near Australia. Image credit: Kerry Emanuel, "Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century", Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, July 8, 2013, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1301293110.

However, a study by Knutson et al. (2013), using the same latest-generation climate models as used by Emanuel (2013), but using the output from the models to drive a different high-resolution hurricane model, found a 20% decrease in Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes by 2100. Two other 2013 studies by Villarini et al. and Camargo, also using output from the 2013 IPCC models, found essentially no change in Atlantic tropical cyclones. The reason for the differences, lies, in part, with how much global warming is assumed in the studies. Dr. Emanuel's study, which found an increase in tropical cyclone activity, assumed a worst-case warming situation (RCP 8.5), following the "business as usual" emissions path humanity is currently on. The Knutson et al. study, which found a decrease of 20% in Atlantic tropical cyclones, used a scenario (RCP 4.5) where it was assumed humans will wise up and cause about half of the worst-case greenhouse warming. The study found found "marginally significant" increases in Atlantic Category 4 and 5 hurricanes of 39% - 45% by 2100. These dramatically different results give credence to Dr. Emanuel statement at the end of his paper, "the response of tropical cyclones to projected climate change will remain uncertain for some time to come." The 2013 IPCC report also emphasized the high amount of uncertainty in how climate change might affect hurricanes, stating that there was "low confidence" that we have observed any increases in intense tropical cyclones due to human causes. However, since the 1970s, it is virtually certain (99 - 100% chance) that the frequency and intensity of hurricanes and tropical storms in the North Atlantic has increased, and there is medium confidence that a reduction in small air pollution particles (aerosols) over the North Atlantic caused part of this effect. The report's forecast for the future stated that it is "more likely than not" (50 - 100% chance) that human-caused climate change will cause a substantial increase in intense tropical cyclones in some ocean basins by 2100, with the Western North Pacific and Atlantic being at particular risk. Also, there will likely (66 - 100% chance) be an increase in both global mean tropical cyclone maximum wind speed and rain rates by 2100, and more likely than not (50 - 100% chance) that the increase in the most intense tropical cyclones will be larger than 10% in some basins.


Figure 3. Expected change in Atlantic Category 4 and 5 hurricanes per decade expected by the year 2100, according to Knutson et al. (2013), "Dynamical Downscaling Projections of 21st Century Atlantic Hurricane Activity: CMIP3 and CMIP5 Model-based Scenarios." This research used the latest generation of climate models from the 2013 IPCC report, and found "marginally significant" increases in Atlantic Category 4 and 5 hurricanes of 39% - 45% by 2100.

Commentary
Hurricane damages are currently doubling every ten years without the effect of climate change, according to Pielke et al., 2008. This is primarily due to the increasing population along the coast and increased wealth of the population. The authors theorize that the Great Miami Hurricane of 1926, a Category 4 monster that made a direct hit on Miami Beach, would have caused about $150 billion in damage had it hit in 2005. Thus, by 2015, the same hurricane would do $300 billion in damage, and $600 billion by 2025. This is without considering the impact that accelerating sea level rise will have on storm surge damages. Global sea level rise over the past decade has been about double what it was in the 20th century, and the rate of sea level rise is expected to increase further in the coming decades. Storm surge does the majority of damage in major hurricanes, and storm surges riding on top of higher sea levels are going to do a lot more damage in the coming decades. If we toss in the (controversial) increases in Category 3 and stronger storms like Dr. Emanuel suggests may occur, the hurricane damage math gets very impressive. We can also add onto that the relatively non-controversial increase in tropical cyclone rainfall of 20% expected by 2100, which will sharply increase damages due to fresh water river flooding. It is controversial whether or not we are already be seeing an increase in heavy precipitation events associated with tropical cyclones in the U.S., though. The total number of daily rainfall events exceeding 2" associated with tropical cyclones in the Southeast U.S. on a century time scale has not changed significantly, according to Groisman et al., 2004. But a 2010 study by Kunkel et al., "Recent increases in U.S. heavy precipitation associated with tropical cyclones", found that the number of Southeast U.S. tropical cyclone heavy precipitation events, defined as 1-in-5-year events, more than doubled between 1994 - 2008, compared to the long-term average from 1895 - 2008.


Figure 4. Time series of the 15-year running average (plotted at the end point of the 15-yr blocks) of a Tropical Cyclone Heavy Precipitation Index (red) and 15-year running average of U.S. landfalling hurricanes (blue). Note that there has been no long-term increase in U.S. landfalling hurricanes, but there has been a sharp increase in extreme rainfall events associated with landfalling tropical cyclones--the kind of rainfall events most likely to cause damaging flooding. Image credit: Kunkel et al. (2010), "Recent increases in U.S. heavy precipitation associated with tropical cyclones", Geophysical Research Letters.

It is essential that we limit coastal development in vulnerable coastal areas, particularly along barrier islands, to reduce some of the astronomical price tags hurricanes are going to be causing in the future. Adoption and enforcement of strict building standards is also a must, as well as more reforms to the government's National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), which subsidizes development in high-risk coastal regions that private insurers won't touch. NFIP is now $25 - 30 billion in the red, thanks to Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Sandy. Reform of NFIP is already underway. In 2012, before Sandy hit, Congress passed the Biggert-Waters Flood Insurance Reform Act, which requires people with NFIP policies to pay large premium increases of about 25% per year over the next five years. Naturally, this move has caused major controversy.

References
Camargo, S., (2013), "Global and regional aspects of tropical cyclone activity in the CMIP5 models," J. Climate.

Emanuel, K.A., 2013, "Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century", PNAS, July 8, 2013, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1301293110

Groisman, Pavel Ya, et al., "Contemporary changes of the hydrological cycle over the contiguous United States: Trends derived from in situ observations," Journal of Hydrometeorology 5.1 (2004): 64-85.

Knutson et al., 2010, "Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change", Nature Geoscience 3, 157 - 163, Published online: 21 February 2010 | doi:10.1038/ngeo779

Knutson et al., 2013, Dynamical Downscaling Projections of 21st Century Atlantic Hurricane Activity: CMIP3 and CMIP5 Model-based Scenarios, Journal of Climate 2013 ; e-View
doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00539.1

Pielke, R.A, et al., 2008, "Normalized Hurricane Damage in the United States: 1900 - 2005," Natural Hazards Review, DOI:10.1061/ASCE1527-6988(2008)9:1(29)

Villarini, G, and G.A. Vecchi, 2012, "Twenty-first-century projections of North Atlantic tropical storms from CMIP5 models," Nature Clim. Change 2:604–607.

Related posts
Global warming and the frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes: model results, my 2010 blog post.

Climate Central's analysis of the new 2013 Kerry Emanuel paper.

Goodbye, Miami: Jeff Goodell's sobering 2013 article in Rolling Stone on the challenges Miami faces due to sea level rise and hurricanes.


What the official climate assessments say about climate change and hurricanes
The 2013 IPCC report gives “low confidence”--a 20% chance--that we have observed a human-caused increase in intense hurricanes in some parts of the world. This is a reduction in odds from the 2007 report, which said that it was more likely than not (greater than 50% chance.) The IPCC likely took note of a landmark 2010 review paper, "Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change", authored by ten top hurricane scientists, which concluded that the U.S. had not seen any long-term increase in landfalling tropical storms and hurricanes, and that "it remains uncertain whether past changes in tropical cyclone activity have exceeded the variability expected from natural causes." The 2013 IPCC report predicts that there is a greater than 50% chance (more likely than not) that we will see a human-caused increase in intense hurricanes by 2100 in some regions; this is also a reduction from the 2007 report, which said this would be likely (66% chance or higher.)

The May 2014 United States National Climate Assessment found that “The intensity, frequency, and duration of North Atlantic hurricanes, as well as the frequency of the strongest (Category 4 and 5) hurricanes, have all increased since the early 1980s. The relative contributions of human and natural causes to these increases are still uncertain. Hurricane-associated storm intensity and rainfall rates are projected to increase as the climate continues to warm.”

Jeff Masters

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2119. Walshy
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2115. NJcat3cane:
all signs pointing towards another east coast hurricane later this year. A storm track is obv impossible to predict before a storm even forms but later this year a track like Floyd, Gloria, LI express of 38, Irene, Sandy, Vagabond hurricane of 1903, Isabel, Great Atlantic hurricane of 44, Hazel, Donna, Carol and other historical east coast tracks are options. Dorian was a good example of how storms are going to track west this year closer or into the U.S. coastline. Irene and sandy is a good example to show the pattern we are in... similar to the likes of what was seen in the 50s and early 60s.


The pattern does seem to favor east coast hits from storms moving north of the Caribbean, with Gulf Coast strikes emanating from storms moving through the Caribbean proper.
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2117. Patrap
Quoting 2113. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


maybe get a hyper cane
20 miles up 500 mph


That cant happen due to the Earths Mass and Size Keep,..but maybe do a Sc-Fi channel script. They like dat tune usually.

This was my script title I sent them.



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129906
2116. Thrawst
u
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
all signs pointing towards another east coast hurricane later this year. A storm track is obv impossible to predict before a storm even forms but later this year a track like Floyd, Gloria, LI express of 38, Irene, Sandy, Vagabond hurricane of 1903, Isabel, Great Atlantic hurricane of 44, Hazel, Donna, Carol and other historical east coast tracks are options. Dorian was a good example of how storms are going to track west this year closer or into the U.S. coastline. Irene and sandy is a good example to show the pattern we are in... similar to the likes of what was seen in the 50s and early 60s.
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forget the hurricane season stuff right now till next week or whenever get this darn heatwave away from us in nola! we need rain!!! me and pat praying for sum
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2113. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting 2102. Patrap:


Earth Atmo 2.0 Holds 10 % more Water Vapor per Cubic Meter now..and we see it Globally in many unique reports, continuing daily.


maybe get a hyper cane
20 miles up 500 mph
that was prehistoric times
gro may not have even seen that
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
Quoting 2105. SuperStorm093:


But the fact of the matter Kori is that they didnt, we can't play the what if game, the fact is this season might not be as good as some thought, doesn't mean it wont be good though.


Even if the predictions of 17 or 18 named storms does not come to pass, 14 to 16 is still exceptional, and definitely above the 1995-2012 climatological mean.

Some people are expecting way too much.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TSR also releases seasonal forecasts for the West Pacific basin.

Their update calls for 22 named storms, 13 hurricanes, and 7 major hurricanes (all equivalencies), in addition to an ACE value of 230.

This is significantly less than the forecast of 26 named stoms, 16 hurricanes, 9 major hurricanes (all equivalencies as well), and an ACE index of 311 units from May.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32875
I spy a naked swirl.

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8774
Quoting 2101. Patrap:
I'm literally on the edge of the Texas Death Ridge here.

same here pat! omg it feels like an oven opening up the doors
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Quoting 2103. KoritheMan:
lol, guys...

I know we're all eager for the real season to begin, but I guarantee you that if Chantal and Dorian had both hit the United States as hurricanes, nobody would be complaining about how dead the season has been.

Quiet times are exceptionally easy to forget, and it'll only take one significant burst of activity or devastating landfall to make this current lull a thing of the past.

Patience. I'm seriously surprised some people haven't learned it yet.


Hi Kori. Only by looking inside the African continent tonight you have to think something will develop in the next 1-2 weeks. A true sign that things are going to pop soon is how the ITCZ looks pumping moisture to the MDR.

Link
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14921
Quoting 2096. hurricanes2018:
1007 mb low
did u see that thing had a 999 mb on africa really?
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2106. ncstorm
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Quoting 2103. KoritheMan:
lol, guys...

I know we're all eager for the real season to begin, but I guarantee you that if Chantal and Dorian had both hit the United States as hurricanes, nobody would be complaining about how dead the season has been.

Quiet times are exceptionally easy to forget, and it'll only take one significant burst of activity or devastating landfall to make this current lull a thing of the past.

Patience. I'm seriously surprised some people haven't learned it yet.


But the fact of the matter Kori is that they didnt, we can't play the what if game, the fact is this season might not be as good as some thought, doesn't mean it wont be good though.
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Interesting lots of 30 knot wind barbs, but no signs of a developing circulation or wind shift on WindSat.

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8774
lol, guys...

I know we're all eager for the real season to begin, but I guarantee you that if Chantal and Dorian had both hit the United States as hurricanes, nobody would be complaining about how dead the season has been.

Quiet times are exceptionally easy to forget, and it'll only take one significant burst of activity or devastating landfall to make this current lull a thing of the past.

Patience. I'm seriously surprised some people haven't learned it yet.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2102. Patrap
Quoting 2094. barbamz:
Last video from Germany for today, I promise, lol! Look at the end of this video to the size of this hail! Amazing! It's once again from Reutlingen / Swabia which was damaged by hail several times earlier (sometimes I wonder whether those smart Swabian people would recycle the same storm several times on youtube, but hail is even larger this time).



Earth Atmo 2.0 Holds 10 % more Water Vapor per Cubic Meter now..and we see it Globally in many unique reports, continuing daily.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129906
2101. Patrap
I'm literally on the edge of the Texas Death Ridge here.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129906
2100. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting 2094. barbamz:
Last video from Germany for today, I promise, lol! Look at the end of this video to the size of this hail! Amazing! It's once again from Reutlingen / Swabia which was damaged by hail several times earlier (sometimes I wonder whether those smart Swabian people would recycle the same storm several times on youtube, but hail is even larger this time).

wait we got to get to hail the size of small melons yet
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
Henriette isn't quite as well organized as earlier. The system is maintaining an organized central dense overcast, but the eye has been obscured by a recent convective burst and a recent microwave pass says the core isn't as solid/well-defined. It still has about 12 hours to strengthen, so we'll see what happens.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32875
8 PM discussion of Tropical Wave/Surface Trough/Weak Low Pressure.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W TO THE SOUTH OF 20N
19N54W 14N56W 10N56W MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 20 KNOTS. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE FROM 12N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 64W. THE TROPICAL
WAVE IS MOVING TOWARD THE AREA OF MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH A TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS.

BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE...POSSIBLY WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE
TROUGH...COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IMMEDIATELY TO THE EAST OF
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS...FROM 9N TO 16N BETWEEN 52W
AND 60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 12N TO
14N BETWEEN 58W AND 60W...APPROACHING BARBADOS. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION COVER
THE REST OF THE AREA FROM 7N TO 16N BETWEEN 51W AND 58W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 47W/48W FROM 8N TO
16N...MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 10 KNOTS. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR 14N. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION COVER THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 9N TO 16N BETWEEN 44W AND 51W.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14921
Quoting 2093. SuperStorm093:
I dont think anything is ready to burst in the next 7 days.

Well see. But I think it will.
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1007 mb low
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 114 Comments: 107021
Quoting 2069. Doppler22:
Just in case anyone was curious about the 2PM update when it said the NWS Prediction Center in Maryland issued the update, I asked the NHC (via facebook) and they responded, "We do regular backup tests. The Weather Prediction Center is the backup agency for NHC Atlantic tropical cyclone products. The test was to ensure that communications from WPC were functioning properly, should we have to invoke backup for some reason".


I was curious as to the context of that... I was wondering, is everybody in MIA in a conference call or something and MD had to pick up the slack? Now I'm going to go try to find the MD TWO, must be about 250 posts back or so...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2094. barbamz
Last video from Germany for today, I promise, lol! Look at the end of this video to the size of this hail! Amazing! It's once again from Reutlingen / Swabia which was damaged by hail several times earlier (sometimes I wonder whether those smart Swabian people would recycle the same storm several times on youtube, but hail is even larger this time).

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I dont think anything is ready to burst in the next 7 days.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2083. SuperStorm093:
In my opinion, I dont think we will see a GOM threat like they are saying or some on here are. I think we are going to begin the season with a relatively strong storm that hits the east coast, then a couple re-curves, with a big bomb of a storm that hits the florida coast. And I dont see storms start forming till August 20th-25th.

Well I'm gonna put some crow on the side of your option. Well see what happens. But likeI said something's ready to burst by next week regardless of what the model thinks. Actual weather happens and model forecasting isn't accurate. It has happen for many years already.
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Quoting 2078. SuperStorm093:
Models can't predict 2 days in advance right, the fact people keep saying next week, the following week etc. I think we need to just wait and watch this unfold and not talk about fantasy land.
I think you are right
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 114 Comments: 107021
Quoting 2085. Doppler22:

I smell cake... does that count?
Oh yes love me some cake. Just the smell of it when it comes out of the oven makes my mouth water.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8774
2088. JLPR2
Quoting 2083. SuperStorm093:
In my opinion, I dont think we will see a GOM threat like they are saying or some on here are. I think we are going to begin the season with a relatively strong storm that hits the east coast, then a couple re-curves, with a big bomb of a storm that hits the florida coast. And I dont see storms start forming till August 20th-25th.


Waayyy too specific, but that last sentence I agree with. If anything does try to form before it will most likely struggle.
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Quoting 2081. Stormchaser121:

Come onnnnnnnnnnn go to Texas pleaseeeeeeeeeeee!!!
Your wish might be granted, I suggest you go outside and ask mother nature to make my wish come true. Also tell her to destroy the death ridge. ;)

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8774
Quoting 2076. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Models will start coming around to development as soon as tomorrow. They do this a lot drop development and then pick it up again. In 3-5 days watch around the Cape-Verde islands for development, in about a week turn your attention to the Western Caribbean and into the following week the GOM. Also, look out off the East Coast and the middle of the north Atlantic for a trough split sometime next week and up until the 20th. One of these areas will feature a storm or I eat massive amounts of crow for 1 week, deal?


Nah, I'm thinking more like Ribeye if TX landfall verifies (we have cows). You've made your case over the week(s), with supporting evidence and collaborating climatology.

That's my wishcast, and I'm stickin to it.
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Quoting 2077. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Get ready folks gulf storm coming, I normally don't make predictions on formation, but we are at that time of the year where we can smell it. You smell it too? The freshness of the tropical air. Ahhh...

I smell cake... does that count?
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here it comes...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
In my opinion, I dont think we will see a GOM threat like they are saying or some on here are. I think we are going to begin the season with a relatively strong storm that hits the east coast, then a couple re-curves, with a big bomb of a storm that hits the florida coast. And I dont see storms start forming till August 20th-25th.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2082. MrMixon
Quoting 2016. Patrap:
TEPCO struggling to contain contaminated water



Containing a radioactive plume in a tidally-influenced unconfined aquifer is like herding cats... what a mess.
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Quoting 2077. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Get ready folks gulf storm coming, I normally don't make predictions on formation, but we are at that time of the year where we can smell it. You smell it too? The freshness of the tropical air. Ahhh...

Come onnnnnnnnnnn go to Texas pleaseeeeeeeeeeee!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2080. Grothar
Quoting 2056. PalmBeachWeather:
I think I should go to "Time Out"...
There's a world where I can go and tell my secrets to...In My Room....


I always liked that song.
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Quoting 2073. Patrap:
Wooosh, and a miss.



Not missing me, storm total up to 1" and still raining, more rain to the North in Bama moving South!

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Models can't predict 2 days in advance right, the fact people keep saying next week, the following week etc. I think we need to just wait and watch this unfold and not talk about fantasy land.
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Quoting 2072. ncstorm:
anyone noticing the models moving moisture up towards the GOM..is this what the FIM is showing? GFS and Navgem actually start with a low..Moonsoonal?
GFS






Navgem at the last frame


CMC does the same..
Get ready folks gulf storm coming, I normally don't make predictions on formation, but we are at that time of the year where we can smell it. You smell it too? The freshness of the tropical air. Ahhh...
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8774
Quoting 2063. JLPR2:
This is interesting, 66hrs, GFS ensemble:



We got upward motion on the Atlantic.
Models will start coming around to development as soon as tomorrow. They do this a lot drop development and then pick it up again. In 3-5 days watch around the Cape-Verde islands for development, in about a week turn your attention to the Western Caribbean and into the following week the GOM. Also, look out off the East Coast and the middle of the north Atlantic for a trough split sometime next week and up until the 20th. One of these areas will feature a storm or I eat massive amounts of crow for 1 week, deal?
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8774
Quoting 2070. sar2401:

I don't know that they are fretting but just think about it. When conditions are hostile, as they have been, we've seen "average" tropical storms fold up like accordions. What size and strength of storm do you think it take to overcome these hostile conditions? The conditions in 1992 were also hostile, and only once storm was able to overcome the impediments and become a major. That's why they are concerned.


And that is exactly my concern for the Carib islands and the SE US coast. I just think that nature will find ways to make mischief to many people after August.
Member Since: June 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1439
2074. sar2401
Quoting Doppler22:
Just in case anyone was curious about the 2PM update when it said the NWS Prediction Center in Maryland issued the update, I asked the NHC (via facebook) and they responded, "We do regular backup tests. The Weather Prediction Center is the backup agency for NHC Atlantic tropical cyclone products. The test was to ensure that communications from WPC were functioning properly, should we have to invoke backup for some reason".

Considering the NHC is in Miami, the number one place that the most bizarrely psychotic bloggers would like to see flattened, having a back up plan is a good idea. :-)
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2073. Patrap
Wooosh, and a miss.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129906
2072. ncstorm
anyone noticing the models moving moisture up towards the GOM..is this what the FIM is showing? GFS and Navgem actually start with a low..Moonsoonal?
GFS






Navgem at the last frame


CMC does the same..
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2071. barbamz
Quoting 2035. Grothar:



That looks more like tropical weather. I honestly do not remember weather like that when I live in Germany.


Well, in summer we sometimes belong to the tropical zone with our so called "tropical nights", heat waves and those awesome storms. This afternoon I strolled through town with visitors, looking at the banked up sandy beaches at Rhine River (with temporary palm trees), people joining at the banks of the river in the evening sun with a glass of wine for workout happenings, outdoor restaurants in the alleys with the feeling of a mediterranean town ... and well, we thought why we should travel far distances for vacation because the atmosphere of our usual destinations seem to have travelled to us ...
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2070. sar2401
Quoting rmbjoe1954:
It looks hostile out in the Atlantic. I do believe we are in for another September to remember as far as hits to the US mainland. Why else are the hurricane experts fretting about a high impact season?

I don't know that they are fretting but just think about it. When conditions are hostile, as they have been, we've seen "average" tropical storms fold up like accordions. What size and strength of storm do you think it will take to overcome these hostile conditions? The conditions in 1992 were also hostile, and only once storm was able to overcome the impediments and become a major. That's why they are concerned.
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Just in case anyone was curious about the 2PM update when it said the NWS Prediction Center in Maryland issued the update, I asked the NHC (via facebook) and they responded, "We do regular backup tests. The Weather Prediction Center is the backup agency for NHC Atlantic tropical cyclone products. The test was to ensure that communications from WPC were functioning properly, should we have to invoke backup for some reason".
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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