Dorian Makes a Short-Lived Comeback as a Tropical Depression

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:37 PM GMT on August 03, 2013

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Like an annoying fly buzzing around your head that just won't go away, Dorian is back. Dorian began as a tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa on July 22. Although initially given only a 10% of developing, Dorian surprised forecasters by becoming the 2nd farthest east-forming tropical storm for so early in the year on July 24. Dorian peaked in strength on July 25, when its top winds reached 60 mph. On July 26, Dorian encountered a dryer, more stable atmosphere, and the storm dissipated to a tropical wave on July 27. The remnants of Dorian continued tracking west-northwest, passing north of the Lesser Antilles Islands and into the Bahamas this week. Finally, at 5 AM EDT this Saturday morning, the remnants of Dorian reorganized enough to prompt the National Hurricane Center to upgrade Dorian's remnants to be Tropical Depression Dorian.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Dorian, showing the surface circulation exposed to view as a naked swirl of low clouds, and a modest area of heavy thunderstorms well to the south of the center.

Dorian does not have long to live, due to high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots that has removed all of the storm's heavy thunderstorms far from the center, leaving the surface circulation exposed to view as a naked swirl of low clouds. With wind shear expected to rise even further this weekend, Dorian will likely be dead by Sunday, and get absorbed into the cold front lying off of the Southeast U.S. coast. Dorian is not a threat to any land areas.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone formation over the coming week.


Video 1. With Discovery Channel's Shark Week approaching, Veronica of the web video series, "Fact or Fictional?" talks with me and a marine biologist about sharknadoes. Is it possible for a ferocious tornado to rip through Southern California, raining man eating sharks? My bit starts about halfway through the video.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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1643. mitchelace5
3:09 PM GMT on August 05, 2013
Quoting 1642. SouthernIllinois:

Hi Mitchel. Really hope you can join us. We are in this blog now.


Sorry about that. Thank you. :)
Member Since: July 27, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 501
1641. mitchelace5
1:43 PM GMT on August 05, 2013
Anyone know long that SAL off Africa may last?
Member Since: July 27, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 501
1640. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
9:57 AM GMT on August 05, 2013
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1639. VR46L
9:47 AM GMT on August 05, 2013
Quoting 1638. PanhandleChuck:
The silence before the storm(s)?


Probably gonna be for a while....



Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7090
1638. PanhandleChuck
9:37 AM GMT on August 05, 2013
The silence before the storm(s)?
Member Since: May 13, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1414
1637. Civicane49
9:00 AM GMT on August 05, 2013
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
1636. Civicane49
9:00 AM GMT on August 05, 2013
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
1635. Civicane49
8:59 AM GMT on August 05, 2013
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082013
200 AM PDT MON AUG 05 2013

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF
HENRIETTE SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ALSO REMAIN UNCHANGED. THE INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 45
KT...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY A 0522Z ASCAT-A OVERPASS THAT SHOWED
40-KT WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE WELL-DEFINED CENTER. THE 34-KT
WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE ASCAT WIND DATA.

THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL WOBBLES IN THE MOTION OF HENRIETTE DURING
THE PAST 12 HOURS...BUT THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO HAVE SETTLED DOWN ON
A WESTWARD COURSE OF 275/06 BASED ON MICROWAVE SATELLITE FIXES.
HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATER TODAY
AS IT MOVES TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED
BETWEEN 135W-140W LONGITUDE. AS THE MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
INDUCING THIS WEAKNESS LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY 72 HOURS...
THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST ON DAYS 3-5 AS
THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE MADE A NOTICEABLE
SHIFT TO THE NORTH ON THIS CYCLE...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
WAS ALSO SHIFTED NORTHWARD AND LIES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ENVELOPE.

HENRIETTE APPEARS POISED TO UNDERGO AT LEAST A TYPICAL RATE OF
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
LOCATED ABOUT 175 NMI TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN STEADILY
WEAKENING AND MOVING CLOSER TO HENRIETTE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
THAT SYSTEM SHOULD MORPH INTO AN OUTER RAIN BAND IN THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE...ALLOWING THE PREVIOUSLY DIVERTED EQUATORIAL INFLOW TO
BE DRAWN INTO THE CENTER OF HENRIETTE. THIS INFLOW OF WARM UNSTABLE
AIR...COUPLED WITH 28C SSTS...ABUNDANT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...AND LOW
VERTICAL SHEAR...SHOULD INITIATE THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS LATER
TODAY. IN FACT...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT TO
OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
WAS INCREASED AND LIES CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODEL ICON...BUT IS
BELOW THE HWRF MODEL...WHICH BRINGS HENRIETTE TO AT LEAST 90 KT IN
48 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 12.1N 127.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 12.5N 128.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 13.3N 130.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 14.3N 132.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 15.1N 133.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 16.3N 137.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 09/0600Z 17.0N 141.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 10/0600Z 17.5N 145.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
1634. Civicane49
8:58 AM GMT on August 05, 2013
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082013
200 AM PDT MON AUG 05 2013

...HENRIETTE MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.1N 127.9W
ABOUT 1400 MI...2250 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
1633. Civicane49
8:57 AM GMT on August 05, 2013
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072013
200 AM PDT MON AUG 05 2013

LIMITED AND WEAK CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PULSE IN THE VICINITY OF AN
OBSCURRED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO
INGEST STABLE TRADE WIND FLOW ON ITS NORTH SIDE...AND HAS BECOME
ADVERSELY AFFECTED BY SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR FROM NEARBY TROPICAL
STORM HENRIETTE. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS BASED ON
RECENT DVORAK INTENSITY TRENDS AND THE DEGRADED SATELLITE
PRESENTATION. IN ADDITION...SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
MARGINAL...WHICH SHOULD HELP GIL TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW
LATER TODAY.

THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS 260/06 KT. GIL HAS BEEN INFLUENCED BY THE
LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL
STORM HENRIETTE. THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN INTO A REMNANT LOW LATER
TODAY WHILE MOVING JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST UNDER THE CONTINUED
INFLUENCE OF HENRIETTE AND THE TRADE WINDS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 13.9N 137.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 13.5N 138.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 06/0600Z 13.1N 140.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 06/1800Z 12.8N 142.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 07/0600Z 12.6N 143.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 08/0600Z 12.7N 147.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 09/0600Z 12.7N 150.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
1632. Civicane49
8:56 AM GMT on August 05, 2013
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GIL ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072013
200 AM PDT MON AUG 05 2013

...GIL WEAKENING...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 137.7W
ABOUT 1220 MI...1960 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1920 MI...3095 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
1631. VR46L
8:48 AM GMT on August 05, 2013
Good Morning Folks!!!
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7090
1630. VR46L
8:45 AM GMT on August 05, 2013
Quoting 1623. moonlightcowboy:


"Hurricane Charley was the costliest tropical cyclone of the 1986 Atlantic hurricane season. The third tropical storm and second hurricane of the season, Charley formed as a subtropical low on August 13 along the Florida panhandle. After moving off the coast of South Carolina, the system transitioned into a tropical cyclone and intensified into a tropical storm on August 15. Charley later attained hurricane status before moving across eastern North Carolina. It gradually weakened over the north Atlantic Ocean before transitioning into an extratropical cyclone on August 20. Charley's remnants remained identifiable for over a week until after crossing the British Isles and dissipating on August 30.

The storm brought light to moderate precipitation to much of the southeastern United States. In Georgia and South Carolina, the rainfall alleviated drought conditions. In North Carolina, where the hurricane made landfall, tidal flooding and downed trees were the primary impact. The storm brought high winds to southeastern Virginia, where 110,000 people were left without power. Minor damage extended along the Atlantic coastline northward through Massachusetts. One traffic fatality was reported each in North Carolina and Virginia. Three people in Maryland died due to a plane crash related to the storm. Throughout the United States, Hurricane Charley caused an estimated $15 million in damage (1986 USD). One person drowned in Newfoundland." ~ (Wiki)


Charley in 1986 is I believe the main reason I track hurricanes . I was 11 when Charley hit as a Massive extropical storm not on the same scale as Sandy but huge .It killed 11 people over here massive flooding gales electric the works . Its also why I fear these storms . I joke I track the fish but I guess thats why I so interested, because what charley did to Ireland at the time was incredible

The_impact_of_hurricane_debbie_1961_and_hurricane _charley_1986_on_ireland
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7090
1629. pcola57
7:27 AM GMT on August 05, 2013
A Wet July for the Eastern U.S.
July was a very wet month for the Eastern U.S., with parts of North Carolina through Florida receiving in excess of a foot of rainfall - up to 600% of their normal rainfall totals. A stationary weather system earlier in the month provided much needed rains to central Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas. Out West, dry conditions persisted, further exacerbating the droughts and fire weather in those areas. This image was generated using data from the NOAA Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service's array of radar and rain gauge observations for July 1-31, 2013. Later this month, the NOAA National Climatic Data Center will release statistics on July's precipitation totals and historical rankings."
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6927
1628. Stormchaser121
7:19 AM GMT on August 05, 2013
Quoting 1627. wunderkidcayman:

With how things are setting up its going to be an interesting August

I hope TX gets something. We need rain.
Member Since: September 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1174
1627. wunderkidcayman
6:39 AM GMT on August 05, 2013
Quoting 1626. moonlightcowboy:
August 1st-10th origins





August 11th-20th origins





August 21st-31st origins




With how things are setting up its going to be an interesting August
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 13577
1626. moonlightcowboy
6:33 AM GMT on August 05, 2013
August 1st-10th origins





August 11th-20th origins





August 21st-31st origins



Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
1624. mitthbevnuruodo
6:27 AM GMT on August 05, 2013
Quoting 1569. GeoffreyWPB:
Not weather related...but nothing going on...Press will be happy to know that Art Bell is coming back to radio!



Wasn't he always playing 'Midnight at the Oasis'?
Member Since: October 12, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 873
1623. moonlightcowboy
6:26 AM GMT on August 05, 2013
Quoting 1621. DonnieBwkGA:
What a strange storm Hurricane Charley was.


"Hurricane Charley was the costliest tropical cyclone of the 1986 Atlantic hurricane season. The third tropical storm and second hurricane of the season, Charley formed as a subtropical low on August 13 along the Florida panhandle. After moving off the coast of South Carolina, the system transitioned into a tropical cyclone and intensified into a tropical storm on August 15. Charley later attained hurricane status before moving across eastern North Carolina. It gradually weakened over the north Atlantic Ocean before transitioning into an extratropical cyclone on August 20. Charley's remnants remained identifiable for over a week until after crossing the British Isles and dissipating on August 30.

The storm brought light to moderate precipitation to much of the southeastern United States. In Georgia and South Carolina, the rainfall alleviated drought conditions. In North Carolina, where the hurricane made landfall, tidal flooding and downed trees were the primary impact. The storm brought high winds to southeastern Virginia, where 110,000 people were left without power. Minor damage extended along the Atlantic coastline northward through Massachusetts. One traffic fatality was reported each in North Carolina and Virginia. Three people in Maryland died due to a plane crash related to the storm. Throughout the United States, Hurricane Charley caused an estimated $15 million in damage (1986 USD). One person drowned in Newfoundland." ~ (Wiki)
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
1622. mitthbevnuruodo
6:24 AM GMT on August 05, 2013
Quoting 1587. sar2401:

The Persieds have been pretty disappointing the last few years, so I hope we get a decent one this year. I have seen 100 an hour nights with the Persieds, but that was in the Nevada desert, about 40 miles from any artificial light and over 140 miles from Vegas, which was just a dim glow on the far horizon. If you want the best spot in the US to watch, head south on NV State Highway 375 from US 6, the "Extraterrestrial Highway", and go about 45 miles until you reach Queen City Summit. It's at a little less than 6,000 feet, always comfortable even after a really hot day, and the famous Area 51 is about 30 miles away, so you might see something spooky from that direction also. Big highway department turnout and laydown area there, and you can get about 300 yards off the road, which never sees more than one car an hour after midnight anyway. Roll out your sleeping bag and enjoy. :-)


Despite having awesome, dark skies here...always ends up cloudy through showers! haha Summer months never good anyway though, as have twilight all night. Getting better in Aug, but not til after midnight is it proper dark still.
Member Since: October 12, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 873
1620. CaicosRetiredSailor
6:17 AM GMT on August 05, 2013
This video MUST have been made by one of the bloggers here...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sICaV6VKI6I&featur e=youtube_gdata_player


...the crow just keeps coming back.
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6069
1619. JLPR2
6:16 AM GMT on August 05, 2013
...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
13N16W TO 10N24W 10N30W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
STARTS NEAR 10N30W AND CONTINUES ALONG 10N40W TO 07N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-12N BETWEEN 16W-
31W...FROM 06N-12N BETWEEN 36W-45W AS WELL AS FROM 05N-09N
BETWEEN 49W-54W.

Not bad, still, it's a little low for August.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8752
1618. moonlightcowboy
6:12 AM GMT on August 05, 2013
Quoting 1591. KoritheMan:


I know the one over Louisiana is Beryl of 1988, but... what is that over the Florida panhandle?


Here we go: Charley, 1986.

Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
1617. mitthbevnuruodo
6:07 AM GMT on August 05, 2013
Quoting 1581. GeoffreyWPB:


No one remembers Art Bell and his bumper music on Coast To Coast AM? Catchy tune, nice hook and the number one song played on Muzak.


Awww, when I moved back to Calif from Colorado 20 years ago, was living up by Joshua Tree NP, and could only get 1 tv station at the time, so spent most the time listening to the radio, and he'd always be on after work, Sunday nights I think it was, was always interesting! Thought he'd be living in an underground, survival bunker by now! haha
Member Since: October 12, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 873
1616. KoritheMan
6:05 AM GMT on August 05, 2013
1615. TerraformingMaster
6:05 AM GMT on August 05, 2013
Dorian is still alive. I predict that he will cross the North Atlantic then circle back past England and Spain before resuming his course back to the GOM.
Member Since: July 27, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 8
1614. Civicane49
6:03 AM GMT on August 05, 2013
Issued: Aug 04, 2013 8:00 pm HST

For the central north Pacific, between 140°W and 180.

1. The National Hurricane Center in Miami Florida is issuing advisories on tropical depression Gil, located 1250 miles east-southeast of Hilo Hawaii, under AWIPS header tcpep2 and WMO header WTPA32 KNHC. Gil is expected to cross 140°W into the Central Pacific Hurricane Center area of responsibility Monday afternoon.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected through Tuesday evening.
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
1613. Civicane49
5:57 AM GMT on August 05, 2013
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
1611. moonlightcowboy
5:54 AM GMT on August 05, 2013
Quoting 1605. wxgeek723:


Agnes occurred in June.



Apologies, folks. It definitely was June. Late, I must be getting cross-eyed. ;)
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
1610. nigel20
5:53 AM GMT on August 05, 2013
Henriette is looking a lot better ATM.
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 14 Comments: 8921
1609. Civicane49
5:46 AM GMT on August 05, 2013
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SUN AUG 4 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION GIL AND TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE...BOTH LOCATED FAR TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM WELL OFFSHORE OF THE
COAST OF MEXICO BY LATE WEEK. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE...AND IT HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?COD E=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/MAYERS
NNNN
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
1607. WatchingThisOne
5:36 AM GMT on August 05, 2013
Quoting sar2401:

How can one forget Art Bell? He's been one of the true pioneers in late night AM radio, has been on shortwave, and he's a ham radio operator. He's also certifiably insane, but that's part of what makes him interesting...kind of like reading a Dr. Bronner's soap label. :-)


He's coming back, to Sirius radio. Don't know exactly when.
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1270
1606. nigel20
5:35 AM GMT on August 05, 2013
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 14 Comments: 8921
1605. wxgeek723
5:26 AM GMT on August 05, 2013
Quoting 1599. moonlightcowboy:


Agnes, '72



Agnes occurred in June.
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3980
1604. mitchelace5
5:13 AM GMT on August 05, 2013
Quoting 1589. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Don't know if I ever seen the ridge displaced that far north before.


Member Since: July 27, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 501
1603. whitewabit (Mod)
5:07 AM GMT on August 05, 2013
Quoting 1600. hurricanes2018:
its august here in the northeast.. its feel like october weather outside tonightthe temp in new haven is 61f maybe going down to 55F TONIGHT!


62 degrees here in central Il .. normally it would still be 80 or higher this time of year ..
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 373 Comments: 34568
1602. hurricanes2018
5:04 AM GMT on August 05, 2013
WOW!! MUCH COOLER WEATHER FOR THE NORTHEAST!!
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 146 Comments: 124189
1601. JLPR2
5:01 AM GMT on August 05, 2013
SSTs anomalies are now making a comeback in the CATL, seems the effects of the last SAL outbreak will be short lived.

Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8752
1600. hurricanes2018
4:59 AM GMT on August 05, 2013
its august here in the northeast.. its feel like october weather outside tonightthe temp in new haven is 61f maybe going down to 55F TONIGHT!
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 146 Comments: 124189
1599. moonlightcowboy
4:59 AM GMT on August 05, 2013
.
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
1598. JLPR2
4:57 AM GMT on August 05, 2013
Hmm... right now the weak ITCZ disturbance is the only game in town.



And it isn't a very good one. :|

Come on 2013! I want a nice hurricane, a cat 5 if it's possible recurving while looking awesome.

*crosses fingers*
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8752
1597. nigel20
4:53 AM GMT on August 05, 2013
Quoting 1585. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Hey what's up Nigel, how's the weather tonight in Jamaica? How you like that lix Guyana put on Jamaica in the CPL?

Lol. We'll get you guys in the Jamaican leg. Today was very hot and hazy. We had very few clouds.
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 14 Comments: 8921
1596. KoritheMan
4:41 AM GMT on August 05, 2013
Quoting 1593. sar2401:

No problem. I'm sure there are some that believe they have a workable formula to scare up an analogue year, but I sure don't. I suspect that, if these predictions were tracked, they wouldn't turn out to be much better than chance, so I tend not to pay much attention to them until some one can prove there's come validity to these kind of predictions.


That's why I always use the word "if".

Always use the word "if", guys. ;)
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 603 Comments: 21827
1595. moonlightcowboy
4:38 AM GMT on August 05, 2013
August historical prevailing average for tracks

Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
1594. sar2401
4:39 AM GMT on August 05, 2013
Quoting Astrometeor:


Night blog.

@sar, visited Bluewater State Park in New Mexico last year. Really windy, but nice sky.

GN, Astro. You're not going to stay up an watch DMax? :-) Yeah, it can get a little windy in the desert, but you can't find better star watching anywhere in the lower 48.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 21138
1593. sar2401
4:37 AM GMT on August 05, 2013
Quoting MSAussie:

Quoting 1577. sar2401

Thanks for taking the time Sar...I have seen time and time again on here and elsewhere "that is just what X did or that is where Y formed or omg its another Z" and I am sitting here thinking that the conditions are never exactly the same so the odds that another exact occurrence of the same would be almost impossible. So that led to wondering how are they picking a particular year as an analog?

I understand that statistically there should be x storms and generally if the high pressure does not pull back and there is limited shear and conditions are good then x number of storms will make it to the US.

I wondered if I was missing something when people were talking about analog years....kind of like the moon is full, the tide is high, its Wednesday and the buffalo sneezed last week in Africa so the season will be exactly like 2003.


Again thanks for taking the time.

Sorry messed up the quote some how there.

No problem. I'm sure there are some that believe they have a workable formula to scare up an analogue year, but I sure don't. I suspect that, if these predictions were tracked, they wouldn't turn out to be much better than chance, so I tend not to pay much attention to them until some one can prove there's come validity to these kind of predictions.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 21138

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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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