Dorian Makes a Short-Lived Comeback as a Tropical Depression

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:37 PM GMT on August 03, 2013

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Like an annoying fly buzzing around your head that just won't go away, Dorian is back. Dorian began as a tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa on July 22. Although initially given only a 10% of developing, Dorian surprised forecasters by becoming the 2nd farthest east-forming tropical storm for so early in the year on July 24. Dorian peaked in strength on July 25, when its top winds reached 60 mph. On July 26, Dorian encountered a dryer, more stable atmosphere, and the storm dissipated to a tropical wave on July 27. The remnants of Dorian continued tracking west-northwest, passing north of the Lesser Antilles Islands and into the Bahamas this week. Finally, at 5 AM EDT this Saturday morning, the remnants of Dorian reorganized enough to prompt the National Hurricane Center to upgrade Dorian's remnants to be Tropical Depression Dorian.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Dorian, showing the surface circulation exposed to view as a naked swirl of low clouds, and a modest area of heavy thunderstorms well to the south of the center.

Dorian does not have long to live, due to high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots that has removed all of the storm's heavy thunderstorms far from the center, leaving the surface circulation exposed to view as a naked swirl of low clouds. With wind shear expected to rise even further this weekend, Dorian will likely be dead by Sunday, and get absorbed into the cold front lying off of the Southeast U.S. coast. Dorian is not a threat to any land areas.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone formation over the coming week.


Video 1. With Discovery Channel's Shark Week approaching, Veronica of the web video series, "Fact or Fictional?" talks with me and a marine biologist about sharknadoes. Is it possible for a ferocious tornado to rip through Southern California, raining man eating sharks? My bit starts about halfway through the video.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 1230. TropicalAnalystwx13:

By who? The NHC forecast a 110kt Cat 3:

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/0300Z 23.6N 59.5W 115 KT
12HR VT 05/1200Z 23.6N 61.5W 105 KT
24HR VT 06/0000Z 23.4N 64.0W 95 KT
36HR VT 06/1200Z 22.9N 66.6W 95 KT
48HR VT 07/0000Z 22.5N 69.2W 100 KT
72HR VT 08/0000Z 22.5N 73.5W 105 KT
96HR VT 09/0000Z 24.0N 77.0W 110 KT
120HR VT 10/0000Z 26.0N 80.0W 110 KT


Dr. Steve Lyons thought it was possible.
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Quoting 1241. BaltimoreBrian:


TylerStanfield is correct. The discussion from the same time as your graphic on 11 p.m. September 4 2008 has Ike hitting S FL in 5 days but as a Cat 3 with maximum sustained winds of 110 kts or 125 mph.

Cody responded first but yeah :P
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Quoting 1236. TylerStanfield:

False.


TylerStanfield and TropicalAnalystwx13 are correct. The discussion from the same time as your graphic on 11 p.m. September 4 2008 has Ike hitting S FL in 5 days but as a Cat 3 with maximum sustained winds of 110 kts or 125 mph.
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Quoting 1239. TylerStanfield:

Comment 1230. Explains why your comment is false.


Nope. Ike hit Texas as a Category 2
Member Since: July 27, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 501
Quoting 1237. SFLWeatherman:
Why? it was Forecast to go to S FL as a Category 5

Comment 1230. Explains why your comment is false.
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1238. LargoFl
well dorian really cooled off the waters huh...........
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 50444
Why? it was Forecast to go to S FL as a Category 5
Quoting 1236. TylerStanfield:

False.
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Quoting 1221. SFLWeatherman:
Ike was Forecast to go to S FL as a Category 5

False.
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Quoting 1209. PanhandleChuck:
Heat index 103 here right now

I just tried to sit out on the screened in porch with the fans on, and I had to go inside because I was getting too hot.

There is no way I could be doing any yard work right now.
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I guess some good can come from major hurricanes:

"Heavy rainfall in Mexico restored reservoirs, which assisted future crop growing." Link
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Quoting 1225. SLU:


It's the most powerful hurricane ever recorded in terms of winds speeds. Thankfully, no one got a chance to experience those 190mph winds. Incredible.


Pretty amazing how a hurricane with a pressure almost 20mb lower than Allen didn't have stronger winds, hurricane hunters probably weren't able to measure Wilma's most extreme winds.
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1232. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 50444
Quoting 1213. wunderkidcayman:
Cayman temp expected to get up to 109F it's near now its in the mid 90's now


Are you sure that's not the heat index forecast?

The highest temperature ever recorded in the Cayman Islands is only 35.7C or 96.3F
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Quoting 1221. SFLWeatherman:
Ike was Forecast to go to S FL as a Category 5

By who? The NHC forecast a 110kt Cat 3:

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/0300Z 23.6N 59.5W 115 KT
12HR VT 05/1200Z 23.6N 61.5W 105 KT
24HR VT 06/0000Z 23.4N 64.0W 95 KT
36HR VT 06/1200Z 22.9N 66.6W 95 KT
48HR VT 07/0000Z 22.5N 69.2W 100 KT
72HR VT 08/0000Z 22.5N 73.5W 105 KT
96HR VT 09/0000Z 24.0N 77.0W 110 KT
120HR VT 10/0000Z 26.0N 80.0W 110 KT
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1229. LargoFl
well it looks like we have a week or so of n0rmal weather here by me..its ok by me lol..........
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 50444
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A BROAD TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N38W TO 21N40W MOVING W AT
ABOUT 20 KT. THE WAVE IS PART OF A LARGER AREA OF OVERALL BROAD
TROUGHING IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND IS COUPLED WITH MID-
LATITUDE MID-LEVEL TROUGHING NOTED TO THE NW OF THE WAVE IN THE
VICINITY OF 21N47W. WHILE NEITHER FEATURE EXHIBITS A STRONG
SIGNAL ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IN GLOBAL MODEL DATA...ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH EACH ARE FORECAST TO MERGE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC AND CONTINUE A FAIRLY RAPID
WESTWARD MOVEMENT TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES REACHING 60W BY
TUE. THE WAVE IS SURROUNDED BY A MASSIVE AREA OF SUSPENDED
SAHARAN DUST AT THIS TIME WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING IN
THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE. GOES-R PROVING GROUND SAL AND AIRMASS
IMAGERY SUGGESTED THIS DUST OUTBREAK WAS FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT


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It looks like it will be pretty cool on my b-day with a high chance of below normal temperatures.
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Quoting 1223. opal92nwf:

That was scary as people thought there was going to be an Andrew repeat.


Or a Donna repeat.
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1225. SLU
Quoting 1196. MiamiHurricanes09:
Speaking of Allen, here's the discussion when it reached peak intensity. 170kts/195mph, 899mb.





It's the most powerful hurricane ever recorded in terms of winds speeds. Thankfully, no one got a chance to experience those 195mph winds. Incredible.
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1224. VR46L
Quoting 1211. opal92nwf:
I won't forget that feeling of when Ivan entered the Gulf as a Category 5 heading right for the area where my house is.


There was not much of the hurricane effected areas of the USA or the Islands that didn't feel that storm ... Quite a loop to return to the Gulf as a TD

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Quoting 1221. SFLWeatherman:
Ike was Forecast to go to S FL as a Category 5

That was scary as people thought there was going to be an Andrew repeat.
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Quoting 1187. opal92nwf:
Forgot this monster.



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Ike was Forecast to go to S FL as a Category 5
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1220. nigel20
Quoting 1215. wunderkidcayman:

Hope not but we are expecting it as we are overdue for one according to stats

Yeah, we'll have to just prepare for such a scenario as we're living in hurricane alley.
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Quoting 1217. SuperStorm093:
I think we are due to see a CAT 5 storm this year.

I definitely would not be surprised
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Quoting 1217. SuperStorm093:
I think we are due to see a CAT 5 storm this year.

Well that would end our 5 year Cat 5 drought
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I think we are due to see a CAT 5 storm this year.
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1216. nigel20
It's extremely dry at the moment.




BTW, our radar is not yet fully functional.
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Quoting 1212. nigel20:

There have been quite a few direct impacts on the Cayman Islands and Cuba since 2004...Charley, Ivan, Gustav, Ike, Paloma..etc I hope that there will not be any major impacts this year though.

Hope not but we are expecting it as we are overdue for one according to stats
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I think the area of convection and 850mb vorticity is now on the move towards the northwest bland over Nicaragua and Honduras.
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Cayman temp expected to get up to 109F it's near now its in the mid 90's now
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1212. nigel20
Quoting 1205. wunderkidcayman:

I believe it was landfall in Cayman Brac

There have been quite a few direct impacts on the Cayman Islands and Cuba since 2004...Charley, Ivan, Gustav, Ike, Paloma..etc I hope that there will not be any major impacts this year though.
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I won't forget that feeling of when Ivan entered the Gulf as a Category 5 heading right for the area where my house is.
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Quoting 1204. ackee:
so far all the storm that have form affected land wonder if we wont have any fish storm this year guess we see

This year is expected to be the year of landfalls so far it's keeping true to the name
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Heat index 103 here right now
Member Since: May 13, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1414
Quoting 1206. TropicalAnalystwx13:
HWFI is excited about Henriette.


It's always excited about every storm
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But because of how the island are shaped and so on Grand Cayman got the pointy end of the dagger
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HWFI is excited about Henriette.

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Quoting 1203. nigel20:

Did Cayman Brac and little Cayman get a direct impact? I know that it went north of Grand Cayman.

I believe it was landfall in Cayman Brac
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1204. ackee
Quoting 1195. SFLWeatherman:
2013 so far
so far all the storm that have form affected land wonder if we wont have any fish storm this year guess we see
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1203. nigel20
Quoting 1192. wunderkidcayman:

Yeah thanks for also mentioning that here in Cayman we are extremely unlucky

Did Cayman Brac and little Cayman get a direct impact? I know that it went north of Grand Cayman.
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Quoting 1197. nigel20:

Thanks 62901IL!

Hi wunderkid! We had very little haze yesterday, but there's a lot more today.

Should not be a problem for us as we don't usually get a lot of haze from SAL of it is very little that it is unrecognisable
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I've always thought this one looked so creepy

I wonder what it would have been like to be in the eyewall of that thing at landfall

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Quoting 1199. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Pumping the ridge!
LMAO. Telling by the spelling errors, they were pretty enthusiastic about the cyclone too.
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Quoting 1196. MiamiHurricanes09:
Speaking of Allen, here's the discussion when it reached peak intensity. 170kts/195mph, 899mb.




Pumping the ridge!
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Quoting 1193. TheDawnAwakening:
Models are showing one thing truly in common with each passing forecast run, that pressures are lowering in the MDR and African waves will continue to produce areas of interest.

Which usually means that there will be some developments and we could enter a period of lots of storm formation as models are hinting at it but still not directly putting it out there this should eventually change
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1197. nigel20
Quoting 1185. 62901IL:

Very nice!

Thanks 62901IL!
Quoting 1189. wunderkidcayman:


Interesting because its very very little here well next to none infact now it's starting to look a little cloudy on our S side

Hi wunderkid! We had very little haze yesterday, but there's a lot more today.
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Quoting 1175. SLU:


Allen and Ivan are the only 2 hurricanes recorded become a category five 3 times.



Speaking of Allen, here's the discussion when it reached peak intensity. 170kts/195mph, 899mb.



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2013 so far
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1194. ackee
I think any time after AUG 15 is date to watch and see if this year will really be active or just a average year until then I don't see much activity
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Models are showing one thing truly in common with each passing forecast run, that pressures are lowering in the MDR and African waves will continue to produce areas of interest.
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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