Dorian Makes a Short-Lived Comeback as a Tropical Depression

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:37 PM GMT on August 03, 2013

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Like an annoying fly buzzing around your head that just won't go away, Dorian is back. Dorian began as a tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa on July 22. Although initially given only a 10% of developing, Dorian surprised forecasters by becoming the 2nd farthest east-forming tropical storm for so early in the year on July 24. Dorian peaked in strength on July 25, when its top winds reached 60 mph. On July 26, Dorian encountered a dryer, more stable atmosphere, and the storm dissipated to a tropical wave on July 27. The remnants of Dorian continued tracking west-northwest, passing north of the Lesser Antilles Islands and into the Bahamas this week. Finally, at 5 AM EDT this Saturday morning, the remnants of Dorian reorganized enough to prompt the National Hurricane Center to upgrade Dorian's remnants to be Tropical Depression Dorian.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Dorian, showing the surface circulation exposed to view as a naked swirl of low clouds, and a modest area of heavy thunderstorms well to the south of the center.

Dorian does not have long to live, due to high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots that has removed all of the storm's heavy thunderstorms far from the center, leaving the surface circulation exposed to view as a naked swirl of low clouds. With wind shear expected to rise even further this weekend, Dorian will likely be dead by Sunday, and get absorbed into the cold front lying off of the Southeast U.S. coast. Dorian is not a threat to any land areas.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone formation over the coming week.


Video 1. With Discovery Channel's Shark Week approaching, Veronica of the web video series, "Fact or Fictional?" talks with me and a marine biologist about sharknadoes. Is it possible for a ferocious tornado to rip through Southern California, raining man eating sharks? My bit starts about halfway through the video.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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Deleted - due to duplicated post
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1336. Gearsts:
holy low pressure


GFS still doesn't have anything developing really, only maybe a TD on the runs.
Member Since: July 31, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 925
My new supercomputer has just finished running the latest GFS model. It shows a very strong system affecting Florida in 913 hours.
We have a long time to get prepared for that one.

Just think if the GFS ran that long, we would have people posting stuff for next season
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Quoting 1318. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Keep an eye out for the Western Caribbean, BOC, and GOM next week.


Another Mexico storm
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Quoting 1317. PalmBeachWeatherBoy:
Man I was in the strongest part of the thunderstorm that rolled through palm beach county. At one point I looked out and the rain and wind were blowing 2 directions, from northeast to southeast and almost straight north to south. It was like a partial swirling motion.


That had to be one of the worst afternoon storms I have ever been through. I was in the Palm Springs Publix when it hit and they lost power. The lightning was intense and the rain unbelievable.
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1336. Gearsts
holy low pressure
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Quoting 1324. pottery:

On August 23rd.
Which is my birthday, by strange coincidence.
I'll be 24. Or something....
:):))


Aug. 24 is also my birthday.
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Quoting 1325. hurricanes2018:
very cool weather for summer maybe very good for the east coast this cooler weather will kick storms out to sea


With the GFS and ensemble teleconnections outlook for a -PNA and +NAO regime, CPC might be off kilter in the day 12-16 range as models forecasting increasing western US troughing and east coast ridging promoting warmer air temperatures over the eastern US, ridging over the western Atlantic and storms south of 20n and east of 60w head into the Caribbean Sea promoting more landfalling cyclones and us landfalls. Anything west of 60w heads throughout the Caribbean Sea and westerly wind shear des down as ridging takes it's place over southwestern North Atlantic. Upper level troughing over Hispaniola will be replaced by ridging promoting less wind shear and favorable Caribbean Sea by Aug 16th.
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Quoting 1324. pottery:

On August 23rd.
Which is my birthday, by strange coincidence.
I'll be 24. Or something....
:):))


...you don't look a day over 18, and to think you would have been just been celebrating your third birthday as Hurricane Andrew was paying me a visit.
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Quoting 1327. SOLROSENBERG:
i heard there will be alot of fronts pushing off the conus weekly. if you have noticed we have had already 3 the past few weeks which is very unuaul this time of year


I wouldn't consider it "unusual," many of these troughs have been weak and quite normal for this time of year. Recall though 2004, which had a trough strong enough in August to cause Charley to go into Florida. Rather uncommon path for a hurricane in August if I'd say so.

The fact that Dorian, which developed at 13.9N in July out by the Cape Verde islands, is currently effecting the weather in Florida is rather telling how strong the ridge is.
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Quoting 1328. Gearsts:


Interesting below 100 hours.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15136
Quoting 1325. hurricanes2018:
very cool weather for summer maybe very good for the east coast this cooler weather will kick storms out to sea


Not if the 500mb chart forecasts are dead wrong.
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1328. Gearsts
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Looking at the teleconnections, the PNA is going negative and NAO is going positive, indicative of more ridging over the eastern US which means the A/B high will be positioned over the Azores creating a weakness over the central Atlantic, but at the same time creating lowering pressure environment over the MDR promoting more cyclogenesis. Troughing over the western US leads to GOM landfalls and Caribbean cruisers.
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very cool weather for summer maybe very good for the east coast this cooler weather will kick storms out to sea
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 137 Comments: 123228
1324. pottery
Quoting SOLROSENBERG:
so when does anyone think there will be the next storm?

On August 23rd.
Which is my birthday, by strange coincidence.
I'll be 24. Or something....
:):))
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Quoting 1312. SOLROSENBERG:
so when does anyone think there will be the next storm?


Aug 16-20th
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Shear is forecast to decrease on Henriette by the next day or so, allowing steady strengthening to occur. Environmental conditions appear conducive for this to become a hurricane in the next few days.

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Keep an eye out for the Western Caribbean, BOC, and GOM next week.

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Man I was in the strongest part of the thunderstorm that rolled through palm beach county. At one point I looked out and the rain and wind were blowing 2 directions, from northeast to southeast and almost straight north to south. It was like a partial swirling motion.
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1315. Hhunter
hearing the gulf could be place to watch end of week.
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Quoting 1312. SOLROSENBERG:
so when does anyone think there will be the next storm?


I think we will get it most likely next week.
Member Since: July 27, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 501
Quoting 1312. SOLROSENBERG:
so when does anyone think there will be the next storm?


I am going with the 20th-25th of August.
Member Since: July 31, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 925
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Quoting 1306. muddertracker:


Yup. When the cone pointed directly at New Orleans, this place was crazy. But, alas, some good ole NO Mojo (or voodoo) kept Ike truckin' west.


Yep..Ike hit the coast farther west than Rita, but I
had worse flooding in Lake Charles from Ike...
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1308. ncstorm
2010 Cat 4 Hurricane Earl's "Turn" in the NHC discussion

this was some of the excerpts from the NHC discussions..they had a time with this storm

THIS IS A GOOD TIME TO REMIND EVERYONE THAT NHC AVERAGE TRACK
FORECAST ERRORS ARE 200 TO 300 MILES AT DAYS 4 AND 5. GIVEN THIS
UNCERTAINTY...IT IS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE WHAT PORTION OF THE U.S.
EAST COAST MIGHT SEE DIRECT IMPACTS FROM EARL.

INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF EARL. THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS
TO HOW CLOSE THE HURRICANE WILL COME TO THE U.S. EAST COAST.

GIVEN THE TRACK AND THE LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...A
HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY. INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS
NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.
THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW CLOSE THE
HURRICANE WILL COME TO THE U.S. EAST COAST.

A VIGOROUS MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
AT 500 MB WILL APPROACH THE EAST COAST AND SHOULD CAUSE THE
HURRICANE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. OF COURSE...THE
TIMING OF THIS TURN IS CRITICAL IN DETERMINING HOW CLOSE THE CENTER
WILL COME TO THE U.S. EAST COAST. ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE
EXACT FORECAST TRACK BECAUSE OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY...AND ALSO
BECAUSE EARL IS A LARGE HURRICANE AND SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS CAN BE
WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER.

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1307. barbamz


Infrared loop of Western Europe. Whish me luck that I'll get some rain out of the front which is entering the main land right now and should kill the heat wave for good in the next days. Due to the drought and heat the leaves even on some larger trees already became brown in my town at Rhine River and elsewhere.

Todays heavy thunderstorms in southern and eastern Germany did some damage, but nothing as severe that I should shoulder the task of translations into English, lol. Links to a photogallery with awesome lightning photos and a video are in my blog entry.

What else? BBC now is covering the monsoon flooding in the Middle East which I've mentioned this morning:
Pakistan and Afghanistan monsoon floods kill dozens

And finally some news are out about the damage of Jebi: Tropical Storm Jebi kills three in Hoa Binh province

Good night and a nice start into the new week!
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 65 Comments: 7101
Quoting 1294. chrisdscane:


We easily forgett, I remember the blog crash when this happen.


Yup. When the cone pointed directly at New Orleans, this place was crazy. But, alas, some good ole NO Mojo (or voodoo) kept Ike truckin' west.
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Quoting 1302. ncstorm:
this should make Washi happy..

That is some COOOOOOOL air right there ncstorm.
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Quoting 1289. ncstorm:


and thats saying a lot because Cuba probably has the best hurricane preparation plan..


The Cubans do have good preparations to save lives, however the old buildings and infrastructure that are not well maintained are no match even for minimal hurricanes.
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1303. ncstorm


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1302. ncstorm
this should make Washi happy..

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mdr.region..11n44w
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 5088
Quoting 1296. SFLWeatherman:
Severe Thunderstorm!
Looks like Lake Worth is getting the purple...Bad stuff
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 6001
1298. nigel20
Quoting 1289. ncstorm:


and thats saying a lot because Cuba probably has the best hurricane preparation plan..

Yeah, they usually have low casualties as well.
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1297. ncstorm
I take that back..we werent in the cone but it was supposed to turn..

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Severe Thunderstorm!
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Quoting 1288. TylerStanfield:
As we head into the meat of the season, make sure you are stocked up on Troll Spray! Spray thoroughly, and frequently.
- ! and Ignore User when needed.


Have a good evening everyone.
I'll check back in on the blog sometime during the week.
Be careful where you point that kid....It might put your eye out...
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 6001


We easily forgett, I remember the blog crash when this happen.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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