Dorian Makes a Short-Lived Comeback as a Tropical Depression

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:37 PM GMT on August 03, 2013

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Like an annoying fly buzzing around your head that just won't go away, Dorian is back. Dorian began as a tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa on July 22. Although initially given only a 10% of developing, Dorian surprised forecasters by becoming the 2nd farthest east-forming tropical storm for so early in the year on July 24. Dorian peaked in strength on July 25, when its top winds reached 60 mph. On July 26, Dorian encountered a dryer, more stable atmosphere, and the storm dissipated to a tropical wave on July 27. The remnants of Dorian continued tracking west-northwest, passing north of the Lesser Antilles Islands and into the Bahamas this week. Finally, at 5 AM EDT this Saturday morning, the remnants of Dorian reorganized enough to prompt the National Hurricane Center to upgrade Dorian's remnants to be Tropical Depression Dorian.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Dorian, showing the surface circulation exposed to view as a naked swirl of low clouds, and a modest area of heavy thunderstorms well to the south of the center.

Dorian does not have long to live, due to high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots that has removed all of the storm's heavy thunderstorms far from the center, leaving the surface circulation exposed to view as a naked swirl of low clouds. With wind shear expected to rise even further this weekend, Dorian will likely be dead by Sunday, and get absorbed into the cold front lying off of the Southeast U.S. coast. Dorian is not a threat to any land areas.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone formation over the coming week.


Video 1. With Discovery Channel's Shark Week approaching, Veronica of the web video series, "Fact or Fictional?" talks with me and a marine biologist about sharknadoes. Is it possible for a ferocious tornado to rip through Southern California, raining man eating sharks? My bit starts about halfway through the video.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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1443. Grothar
Quoting 1437. AussieStorm:


Here is an impression from Sheffau am Wilder Kaiser, Austria. This severe warned cell is still capable of producing damaging winds, heavy rainfall and hail.

Courtesy of Stormhunter-NL


As you know, I grew up there. Such storms were unheard of. Germany normally has a very mild and uninteresting climate. The changes the last few years are incredible.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27211
Henriette up to 45 knots.

EP, 08, 2013080500, , BEST, 0, 120N, 1273W, 45, 1002, TS
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Grothar, you need to see about buying a piece of Jedkins' "Tampa Shield" brand shower curtain! Though, actually, every time Tampa DOES get rain these days, they seem to crank out a waterspout or two as well!

It's been just about right here in SE Cape Coral. The orchids look good, and the late mangoes and early avocados are about to break the branches, they're so heavy.
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Thank You Levi , great tidbit as usual ! Very informative .
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Quoting 1438. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Henriette is an absolute mess.



The EPAC still can't produce a formidable system this season.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14923
Henriette is an absolute mess.

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Here is an impression from Sheffau am Wilder Kaiser, Austria. This severe warned cell is still capable of producing damaging winds, heavy rainfall and hail.

Courtesy of Stormhunter-NL
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Ping pong size hail near Schafstädt (Germany)

Courtesy of Stormhunter-NL
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1435. txjac
Quoting 1432. Grothar:


We've had 26" this month. Our mildew is now growing its own mold. It is raining as we speak.


Really wish that there was some way that it could be pushed our way. Brings me almost to tears to see all the rain east of us. Maybe throw some bleach on that moldy mildew, lol
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Germany

Storm front caused a lot of inserts







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Quoting 1424. wxgeek723:


Really strange for the NHC to mention something that does not yet exist in the TWO.


Thats really the first look at how the five day TWO is supposed to work. Models have been developing a storm in the next four to five days from an area of energy that is near Panama right now. This is the first example of the NHC assigning a percentage to an area that really isn't even close to being invest worthy.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14923
1432. Grothar
Quoting 1427. txjac:


Amen to that ...never know when one of them will pop up. It's a terrible thing to wish a TS or cat 1 would come your way ..we need rain so badly ...that drought map can't be right ...I havent see rock hard ground like this before


We've had 26" this month. Our mildew is now growing its own mold. It is raining as we speak.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27211
Quoting wxgeek723:


Really strange for the NHC to mention something that does not yet exist in the TWO.


yet they give it 0% in the next 48hr and 20% in the next 5 days.
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1430. txjac
Quoting 1428. RitaEvac:


We aint wishing, we're on our knees praying for it


There people here don't care that we are melting ... lol
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Gil stays a tropical depression in the 0z update.

EP, 07, 2013080500, , BEST, 0, 141N, 1368W, 25, 1007, TD
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Quoting 1427. txjac:


Amen to that ...never know when one of them will pop up. It's a terrible thing to wish a TS or cat 1 would come your way ..we need rain so badly ...that drought map can't be right ...I havent see rock hard ground like this before


We aint wishing, we're on our knees praying for it
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1427. txjac
Quoting 1426. RitaEvac:


You and I know as well, we don't even worry about Atlantic systems, we don't pay attention till NW Caribbean, Bahamas, or home grown in back yard in GOM


Amen to that ...never know when one of them will pop up. It's a terrible thing to wish a TS or cat 1 would come your way ..we need rain so badly ...that drought map can't be right ...I havent see rock hard ground like this before
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Quoting 1423. txjac:


I'm seriously thinking of moving ...


You and I know as well, we don't even worry about Atlantic systems, we don't pay attention till NW Caribbean, Bahamas, or home grown in back yard in GOM
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Wow the sunset tonight in WPB!!:)
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Quoting 1401. Tropicsweatherpr:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN AUG 4 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION GIL AND TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE...BOTH LOCATED FAR TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM WELL OFFSHORE OF THE
COAST OF MEXICO LATER THIS WEEK. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE...AND IT HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?COD E=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Really strange for the NHC to mention something that does not yet exist in the TWO.
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1423. txjac
Quoting 1422. RitaEvac:


It's like I said and say everytime....we're being ERASED

Heat advisory in effect from 10 am to 9 PM CDT Monday...

The National Weather Service in Houston/Galveston has issued a
heat advisory... which is in effect from 10 am to 9 PM CDT Monday.

* Event... heat indices above 108 degrees f expected on Monday.


* Timing... heat indices will likely reach 108 degrees f by mid to
late afternoon Monday.

* Impact... high heat index values could cause symptoms of heat
exhaustion Monday afternoon. Limit strenuous activities to early
morning or evening.


I'm seriously thinking of moving ...
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Quoting 1421. txjac:


I cant believe how much its NOT raining. Depressing, I tell ya. I'm jealous of those that do get rain.


It's like I said and say everytime....we're being ERASED






Heat advisory in effect from 10 am to 9 PM CDT Monday...

The National Weather Service in Houston/Galveston has issued a
heat advisory... which is in effect from 10 am to 9 PM CDT Monday.

* Event... heat indices above 108 degrees f expected on Monday.


* Timing... heat indices will likely reach 108 degrees f by mid to
late afternoon Monday.

* Impact... high heat index values could cause symptoms of heat
exhaustion Monday afternoon. Limit strenuous activities to early
morning or evening.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1421. txjac
Quoting 1415. RitaEvac:
Getting that sinking feeling around here, first week of August and nuttin....just like every season, another season passing us on by with no beneficial rains. I don't believe we'll get a thing again here in TX


I cant believe how much its NOT raining. Depressing, I tell ya. I'm jealous of those that do get rain.
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I love how everyone goes silent at once after Levi posts a tidbit.
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7:45 PM EDT
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Quoting 1382. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Look how low sea level pressures become across nearly the entire Atlantic by mid-August. The tropics switch is about to be flipped up.



Where does the Bermuda High go?!

Or does it all just become a single Canary Islands High ;)
Member Since: July 16, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 485
Quoting 1408. Levi32:
Good evening.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Sunday, August 4th, with Video

thanks1
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Quoting 1322. Civicane49:
Shear is forecast to decrease on Henriette by the next day or so, allowing steady strengthening to occur. Environmental conditions appear conducive for this to become a hurricane in the next few days.



indeed!
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Getting that sinking feeling around here, first week of August and nuttin....just like every season, another season passing us on by with no beneficial rains. I don't believe we'll get a thing again here in TX
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Quoting 1406. CybrTeddy:
To further add to the likelihood of an above average August-September, the GFS is now showing very low shear in the Atlantic in its long range runs.


Im thinking on a burst of storms then...
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Overall

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Quoting 1398. opal92nwf:
These two boundaries collided. About to hit me now. With a strong thunderstorm warning.


strong thunderstorm warning.... kinda similar to severe thunderstorm warning...
strong sounds better than severe to me...
just picking on ya.


Hows everyone here...quite some time I don't come to the main blog
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Quoting 1404. 1900hurricane:
Wooo Death Ridge! :P



Watering right now, was out by curb using hose, and now running sprinkler. There was rain nearby today but as usual not over me, somebody picked up over an inch but so isolated it's pointless to the overall drought. We're going down ship this week, buckle up.



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Quoting 1406. CybrTeddy:
To further add to the likelihood of an above average August-September, the GFS is now showing very low shear in the Atlantic in its long range runs.

Es no bueno...
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Stormhunter-NL
Epic photo of the monster shelf cloud over Prague.

By Míla Roháček
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1408. Levi32
Good evening.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Sunday, August 4th, with Video
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I like how the NHC is forecasting future development in the new TWOs. That's pretty neat.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
To further add to the likelihood of an above average August-September, the GFS is now showing very low shear in the Atlantic in its long range runs.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1404. 1900hurricane:
Wooo Death Ridge! :P



I'm tellin ya we had cumulus in Austin just an hour ago.

This, too, shall pass.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wooo Death Ridge! :P

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN AUG 4 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION GIL AND TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE...BOTH LOCATED FAR TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM WELL OFFSHORE OF THE
COAST OF MEXICO LATER THIS WEEK. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE...AND IT HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?COD E=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14923
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 4 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?COD E=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14923
1399. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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These two boundaries collided. About to hit me now. With a strong thunderstorm warning.
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Quoting 1379. Matt74:
It's Definitely set in this week.


We still have clouds... so it isn't perma yet.

Nobody quote.
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1396. JLPR2
Quoting 1382. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Look how low sea level pressures become across nearly the entire Atlantic by mid-August. The tropics switch is about to be flipped up.



Quite the change from when Dorian was struggling out in the CATL.
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Quoting 1387. Hurricanes305:


August 8th-10th
. I agree , with you because , the models , say next week !
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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