Dorian Makes a Short-Lived Comeback as a Tropical Depression

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:37 PM GMT on August 03, 2013

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Like an annoying fly buzzing around your head that just won't go away, Dorian is back. Dorian began as a tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa on July 22. Although initially given only a 10% of developing, Dorian surprised forecasters by becoming the 2nd farthest east-forming tropical storm for so early in the year on July 24. Dorian peaked in strength on July 25, when its top winds reached 60 mph. On July 26, Dorian encountered a dryer, more stable atmosphere, and the storm dissipated to a tropical wave on July 27. The remnants of Dorian continued tracking west-northwest, passing north of the Lesser Antilles Islands and into the Bahamas this week. Finally, at 5 AM EDT this Saturday morning, the remnants of Dorian reorganized enough to prompt the National Hurricane Center to upgrade Dorian's remnants to be Tropical Depression Dorian.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Dorian, showing the surface circulation exposed to view as a naked swirl of low clouds, and a modest area of heavy thunderstorms well to the south of the center.

Dorian does not have long to live, due to high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots that has removed all of the storm's heavy thunderstorms far from the center, leaving the surface circulation exposed to view as a naked swirl of low clouds. With wind shear expected to rise even further this weekend, Dorian will likely be dead by Sunday, and get absorbed into the cold front lying off of the Southeast U.S. coast. Dorian is not a threat to any land areas.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone formation over the coming week.


Video 1. With Discovery Channel's Shark Week approaching, Veronica of the web video series, "Fact or Fictional?" talks with me and a marine biologist about sharknadoes. Is it possible for a ferocious tornado to rip through Southern California, raining man eating sharks? My bit starts about halfway through the video.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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1493. pottery
Quoting txjac:


Interesting, I'll have to look in to the process.

We have a couple DeSal plants here, mostly producing water for heavy industry.
Fortunately, our water is low salinity (thanks to the Orinoco river), and we have lots of cheap gas to run them.
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1492. RTLSNK
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Quoting 1488. galvestonhurricane:


Is League City under mandatory water rationing again this year?


Not yet
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I posted this question earlier but did not get an answer. Maybe someone on the night crew can answer it.

"How is an analog year chosen for a particular season? I have seen references to a few of them for this year and am curious as to how they chose a year. Is it based on historical data if so how what historical data is used?"

Thanks
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Quoting 1476. RitaEvac:


My city

LEAGUE CITY — A San Antonio company is hoping to bring cheap desalinated water to Galveston County. Salt of the Earth is looking to open a desalinization plant that will produce water at a lower price than other such plants and produce chemicals it can sell.



So you live in League City, I lived in Hitchcock for the first 11 years of my life. 94-05
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Quoting 1476. RitaEvac:


My city

LEAGUE CITY — A San Antonio company is hoping to bring cheap desalinated water to Galveston County. Salt of the Earth is looking to open a desalinization plant that will produce water at a lower price than other such plants and produce chemicals it can sell.


Is League City under mandatory water rationing again this year?
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1487. pottery
Quoting AussieStorm:

It's been a cool and dry winter here. An above average temp winter.

And snow was falling in southern Brasil last week.

Weirdness !
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1486. Pallis
Quoting 1460. OrchidGrower:


That's why I believe it could be the ultimate public works project -- to link this country with pipelines that can carry floodwater from one state to parched fields in another. When are we going to "get it" that water is more valuable than oil and gas? How dry do parts of this country need to get before we decide to act?

States with excess rainwater could sell to the highest bidder. Never mind whether any state could actually get rid of all of the floodwater -- just whatever they could sell would not only be that much less to deal with at home, but the money from states that bought it could help pay for rebuilding in the flooded locations.

And if a pipe springs a leak somewhere? No harm to the Ogallala or anyone else -- because "it's JUST water!"

All I needed to see was one drought like Texas' 2011 Death Ridge, back when I was a teenager, and I've never looked at water or rain the same way again.

Okay, shuttin' up now. Time to go fix dinner. East Florida, I really do hope it stops dumping on you guys.... Txjac, Rita and others out there: I sure hope you get some real rain, real soon.


While a noble thought, it has already been done. In the West it created the water wars where big cities are pitted against farmers for profit(cities win). In the East the same thing now, Georgia farmers who are by nature land greedy, beady eyed clay eaters suck up the water before it reaches Florida and the oysters and shrimp don't breed because of lack of fresh water and increased fertilizers.Every time we try to change the earth drastically we fail. Man, the worst thing to have ever visited the planet, coming to wreak havoc on your utopia soon.
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1485. txjac
Quoting 1483. RitaEvac:
As they plan for the city’s growth and future water needs, League City officials are hoping desalination will become an official part of the region’s water plan.

Adding desalination to the plan would ease the permitting process and make desalination projects in the region, which includes all or part of 15 counties along the upper Gulf Coast, eligible to apply for financing from the state, city officials said.


Interesting, I'll have to look in to the process.
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1484. pottery
Quoting Grothar:


It should cool down some by November, pott. This has been one wet, hot, humid summer here, too.

By November ???
Gee, thanks !

But seriously, this is one very strange WetSeason for us here.
I've never seen the Caribbean and the GOM so cloud free for so long at this time of year.
And the Atlantic looks dead right now, and for the next couple of weeks at least.
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As they plan for the city’s growth and future water needs, League City officials are hoping desalination will become an official part of the region’s water plan.

Adding desalination to the plan would ease the permitting process and make desalination projects in the region, which includes all or part of 15 counties along the upper Gulf Coast, eligible to apply for financing from the state, city officials said.
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Quoting pottery:
Good evening all.
A hot and muggy evening here.
Very still and still dusty.

Not very nice.

It's been a cool and dry winter here. An above average temp winter.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1462. JLPR2:
Though that ITCZ disturbance is pretty interesting, you can actually sort of see it starting to spin in the TPW animation.



Levi talks a little bit about the wave in his video.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14923
1480. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting 1472. txjac:



Actually the company I work for has a new slogan ...water, the next oil
yep and wars to come with it

water is more important than oil without it there is nothing
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Quoting 1449. Grothar:


I've been posting images of these waves for the past few days and I believe they will be moving into the Central Antilles/Windward Islands in a few days. Terrific amount of SAL and dry air in the Caribbean though.



The first ones are going to be the sacrifices for the ones later to come.
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Quoting 1415. RitaEvac:
Getting that sinking feeling around here, first week of August and nuttin....just like every season, another season passing us on by with no beneficial rains. I don't believe we'll get a thing again here in TX

I'll be wishcasting for you Rita.
hey, every little bit helps ;-)
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1477. JLPR2
Quoting 1470. AussieStorm:


watching that you can see the moisture from the Southern Atlantic feed into the ITCZ.


I guess the N. Atl. is so dry the ITCZs only source is the S. Atl. Moisture is moisture.

That could also explain the uptick of activity in it.
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Quoting 1472. txjac:



Actually the company I work for has a new slogan ...water, the next oil


My city

LEAGUE CITY — A San Antonio company is hoping to bring cheap desalinated water to Galveston County. Salt of the Earth is looking to open a desalinization plant that will produce water at a lower price than other such plants and produce chemicals it can sell.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1467. captainmark:
I think the main problem they would have with a water pipeline would be the sediment settling out within the pipeline and restricting the flow in a very short time. I
would love to see someone find a way to make it happen


I've thought of that, many times. At least since you're not (theoretically!) working with a toxic product, backflushing the pipeline in segments wouldn't result in toxic releases anywhere, so no reason you couldn't do that. We used to have to backflush our main water pipe when I was growing up in the country, not for soil/sediment buildup but to remove excess iron. Of course, for a modern pipeline there could be many solutions.

I just always think of the story about GE's lab. Don't know if this is true or not, but I suspect there's a kernel of truth in there somewhere. The story goes that GE wanted a lightbulb that was frosted on the inside. Everyone working there knew it couldn't be done. So the great joke was to take the new crop of employees, every year, and tell 'em their first assignment was to build a lightbulb frosted from the inside.

The newbies would work like mad, growing more anxious by the minute, and at the end of the third day the rest of the staff would fill 'em in on the real deal, everyone would have a good laugh, and then the managers would yell, "Allright, everybody back to work!"

And then one year, a kid created a lightbulb that was frosted from the inside. Because the company had told him to go do it, he'd just figured this was something that could actually be done. And he did it - in three days.

We put men on the moon. Surely we can figure out a way to skim off floodwater and transport/sell it to other states that desperately need it. I don't need to see another flood like the great Mississippi Flood of '93; I can just read about what IndianRiverGuy is seeing over there and I know what a shame it is to damage the marine environment with all that rainwater that Texas and California (and others) want so badly.
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1474. txjac
Quoting 1464. Tornado6042008X:
You guys will eventually get the rain. Trust me. It is only a matter of time before your turn comes and I know how you guys down there feel and hope that you get a tropical storm this year that brings beneficial rains.

I really hope that you don't get a full-blown hurricane though. 







In the meantime. ......................... do y'all want me to do another rain dance for you?<BR>



Yes please!
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1473. Grothar
Quoting 1468. AussieStorm:
HAHAHAHAHA



I saw this and just had to share it.



That is funny. AND weather related.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27211
1472. txjac
Quoting 1460. OrchidGrower:


That's why I believe it could be the ultimate public works project -- to link this country with pipelines that can carry floodwater from one state to parched fields in another. When are we going to "get it" that water is more valuable than oil and gas? How dry do parts of this country need to get before we decide to act?

States with excess rainwater could sell to the highest bidder. Never mind whether any state could actually get rid of all of the floodwater -- just whatever they could sell would not only be that much less to deal with at home, but the money from states that bought it could help pay for rebuilding in the flooded locations.

And if a pipe springs a leak somewhere? No harm to the Ogallala or anyone else -- because "it's JUST water!"

All I needed to see was one drought like Texas' 2011 Death Ridge, back when I was a teenager, and I've never looked at water or rain the same way again.

Okay, shuttin' up now. Time to go fix dinner. East Florida, I really do hope it stops dumping on you guys.... Txjac, Rita and others out there: I sure hope you get some real rain, real soon.





Actually the company I work for has a new slogan ...water, the next oil
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1471. Grothar
Quoting 1463. pottery:
Good evening all.
A hot and muggy evening here.
Very still and still dusty.

Not very nice.


It should cool down some by November, pott. This has been one wet, hot, humid summer here, too.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27211
Quoting JLPR2:
Though that ITCZ disturbance is pretty interesting, you can actually sort of see it starting to spin in the TPW animation.



watching that you can see the moisture from the Southern Atlantic feed into the ITCZ.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1465. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
soon it will be wet and muskey


Doesn't a Muskey have to be wet?? If its dry, its called cat food.
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HAHAHAHAHA



I saw this and just had to share it.
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Quoting 1460. OrchidGrower:


That's why I believe it could be the ultimate public works project -- to link this country with pipelines that can carry floodwater from one state to parched fields in another. When are we going to "get it" that water is more valuable than oil and gas? How dry do parts of this country need to get before we decide to act?

States with excess rainwater could sell to the highest bidder. Never mind whether any state could actually get rid of all of the floodwater -- just whatever they could sell would not only be that much less to deal with at home, but the money from states that bought it could help pay for rebuilding in the flooded locations.

And if a pipe springs a leak somewhere? No harm to the Ogallala or anyone else -- because "it's JUST water!"

All I needed to see was one drought like Texas' 2011 Death Ridge, back when I was a teenager, and I've never looked at water or rain the same way again.

Okay, shuttin' up now. Time to go fix dinner. East Florida, I really do hope it stops dumping on you guys.... Txjac, Rita and others out there: I sure hope you get some real rain, real soon.


I think the main problem they would have with a water pipeline would be the sediment settling out within the pipeline and restricting the flow in a very short time. I
would love to see someone find a way to make it happen
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1462. JLPR2:
Though that ITCZ disturbance is pretty interesting, you can actually sort of see it starting to spin in the TPW animation.



Hmm could be one of those storms that models don't pick up well it sure won't be the first time that this has happened
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1465. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting 1463. pottery:
Good evening all.
A hot and muggy evening here.
Very still and still dusty.

Not very nice.
soon it will be wet and muskey
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1426. RitaEvac:


You and I know as well, we don't even worry about Atlantic systems, we don't pay attention till NW Caribbean, Bahamas, or home grown in back yard in GOM
Quoting 1435. txjac:


Really wish that there was some way that it could be pushed our way. Brings me almost to tears to see all the rain east of us. Maybe throw some bleach on that moldy mildew, lol
You guys will eventually get the rain. Trust me. It is only a matter of time before your turn comes and I know how you guys down there feel and hope that you get a tropical storm this year that brings beneficial rains.

I really hope that you don't get a full-blown hurricane though. 







In the meantime. ......................... do y'all want me to do another rain dance for you?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1463. pottery
Good evening all.
A hot and muggy evening here.
Very still and still dusty.

Not very nice.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1462. JLPR2
Though that ITCZ disturbance is pretty interesting, you can actually sort of see it starting to spin in the TPW animation.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1456. captainmark:
That is an incredible amount of water. Such a shame for it to damage that river basin when there are so many other places that desperately need it.


We had more than 5 thousand people show up to protest the Okeechobee discharges yesterday at Phipps Park and, the park was spotless when we left.
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Quoting 1450. indianrivguy:


And here we are in south and central Florida sending 10-12 billion gallons a day to tide.... enough water to put 1 inch of water on more than 600 square miles a day.


That's why I believe it could be the ultimate public works project -- to link this country with pipelines that can carry floodwater from one state to parched fields in another. When are we going to "get it" that water is more valuable than oil and gas? How dry do parts of this country need to get before we decide to act?

States with excess rainwater could sell to the highest bidder. Never mind whether any state could actually get rid of all of the floodwater -- just whatever they could sell would not only be that much less to deal with at home, but the money from states that bought it could help pay for rebuilding in the flooded locations.

And if a pipe springs a leak somewhere? No harm to the Ogallala or anyone else -- because "it's JUST water!"

All I needed to see was one drought like Texas' 2011 Death Ridge, back when I was a teenager, and I've never looked at water or rain the same way again.

Okay, shuttin' up now. Time to go fix dinner. East Florida, I really do hope it stops dumping on you guys.... Txjac, Rita and others out there: I sure hope you get some real rain, real soon.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1459. Grothar
Quoting 1457. indianrivguy:


Had an avacado pear in the yard in Miami growing up that was tall enough to knock you out if one fell and hit you. Couldn't park anything under that time of year.


Then you get my point. LOL
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27211
1458. Grothar
Quoting 1454. AussieStorm:


Wouldn't that SAL and dry air also be moving west? So when those T-waves reach the Caribbean it'll be gone, and ummm I hope no BOOM in development.


Very hard to say right now. Sometimes they create their own moisture field, and it depends on what layer of SAL is present. The funny thing is that the SAL actually helps create the waves while they are over Africa and can also deteriorate them over the Atlantic.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27211
Quoting 1444. Grothar:


I have killed every orchid I have ever had. I don't have a mango tree in this house, but our neighborhood has many of them. I can't ever recall seeing so many on a tree. We do have an avocado tree with giant avocados on it. I always sit my in-laws under it when they come to visit. :)


Had an avacado pear in the yard in Miami growing up that was tall enough to knock you out if one fell and hit you. Couldn't park anything under that time of year.
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Quoting 1450. indianrivguy:


And here we are in south and central Florida sending 10-12 billion gallons a day to tide.... enough water to put 1 inch of water on more than 600 square miles a day.
That is an incredible amount of water. Such a shame for it to damage that river basin when there are so many other places that desperately need it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1455. Grothar
Quoting 1448. AussieStorm:


I guess this is what happens when the Arctic ice melts. This is the new future.


The same thing is happening in Norway, where we lived many years. The weather has changed so dramatically, Norway, Sweden and Finland have been having joint meetings about the change in the growing season and change in the animal behavior in just a short time. I lived in Greenland for two years and spent a long time in Iceland. They are just not the same as I remember them. I spent most of my time there translating the old Icelandic writings into modern Norwegian and Danish.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27211
Quoting Grothar:


I've been posting images of these waves for the past few days and I believe they will be moving into the Central Antilles/Windward Islands in a few days. Terrific amount of SAL and dry air in the Caribbean though.





Wouldn't that SAL and dry air also be moving west? So when those T-waves reach the Caribbean it'll be gone, and ummm I hope no BOOM in development.
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1453. JLPR2
Quoting 1445. stormpetrol:
I would not be surprised to see an Invest in the Atlantic/Caribbean by this weekend , just saying.


Not impossible but unlikely. There are a few spins in the ITCZ/Monsoon Trof but they tend to stay there. Now, if one grows strong enough to dominate the area or breaks free from the ITCZ, we might have something.
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1452. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting 1443. Grothar:


As you know, I grew up there. Such storms were unheard of. Germany normally has a very mild and uninteresting climate. The changes the last few years are incredible.



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This season reminds so much of 04 in terms of upper winds and positioning of Bermuda High could get crazy in a few weeks.
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Quoting 1428. RitaEvac:


We aint wishing, we're on our knees praying for it


And here we are in south and central Florida sending 10-12 billion gallons a day to tide.... enough water to put 1 inch of water on more than 600 square miles a day.
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1449. Grothar
Quoting 1445. stormpetrol:
I would not be surprised to see an Invest in the Atlantic/Caribbean by this weekend , just saying.


I've been posting images of these waves for the past few days and I believe they will be moving into the Central Antilles/Windward Islands in a few days. Terrific amount of SAL and dry air in the Caribbean though.



Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27211
Quoting Grothar:


As you know, I grew up there. Such storms were unheard of. Germany normally has a very mild and uninteresting climate. The changes the last few years are incredible.


I guess this is what happens when the Arctic ice melts. This is the new future.
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itz.near.45w
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 5010
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I would not be surprised to see an Invest in the Atlantic/Caribbean by this weekend , just saying.
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1444. Grothar
Quoting 1441. OrchidGrower:
Grothar, you need to see about buying a piece of Jedkins' "Tampa Shield" brand shower curtain! Though, actually, every time Tampa DOES get rain these days, they seem to crank out a waterspout or two as well!

It's been just about right here in SE Cape Coral. The orchids look good, and the late mangoes and early avocados are about to break the branches, they're so heavy.


I have killed every orchid I have ever had. I don't have a mango tree in this house, but our neighborhood has many of them. I can't ever recall seeing so many on a tree. We do have an avocado tree with giant avocados on it. I always sit my in-laws under it when they come to visit. :)
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27211
1443. Grothar
Quoting 1437. AussieStorm:


Here is an impression from Sheffau am Wilder Kaiser, Austria. This severe warned cell is still capable of producing damaging winds, heavy rainfall and hail.

Courtesy of Stormhunter-NL


As you know, I grew up there. Such storms were unheard of. Germany normally has a very mild and uninteresting climate. The changes the last few years are incredible.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27211

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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