Dorian Makes a Short-Lived Comeback as a Tropical Depression

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:37 PM GMT on August 03, 2013

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Like an annoying fly buzzing around your head that just won't go away, Dorian is back. Dorian began as a tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa on July 22. Although initially given only a 10% of developing, Dorian surprised forecasters by becoming the 2nd farthest east-forming tropical storm for so early in the year on July 24. Dorian peaked in strength on July 25, when its top winds reached 60 mph. On July 26, Dorian encountered a dryer, more stable atmosphere, and the storm dissipated to a tropical wave on July 27. The remnants of Dorian continued tracking west-northwest, passing north of the Lesser Antilles Islands and into the Bahamas this week. Finally, at 5 AM EDT this Saturday morning, the remnants of Dorian reorganized enough to prompt the National Hurricane Center to upgrade Dorian's remnants to be Tropical Depression Dorian.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Dorian, showing the surface circulation exposed to view as a naked swirl of low clouds, and a modest area of heavy thunderstorms well to the south of the center.

Dorian does not have long to live, due to high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots that has removed all of the storm's heavy thunderstorms far from the center, leaving the surface circulation exposed to view as a naked swirl of low clouds. With wind shear expected to rise even further this weekend, Dorian will likely be dead by Sunday, and get absorbed into the cold front lying off of the Southeast U.S. coast. Dorian is not a threat to any land areas.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone formation over the coming week.


Video 1. With Discovery Channel's Shark Week approaching, Veronica of the web video series, "Fact or Fictional?" talks with me and a marine biologist about sharknadoes. Is it possible for a ferocious tornado to rip through Southern California, raining man eating sharks? My bit starts about halfway through the video.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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Some strong storms heading for the east coast...

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Quoting 127. HurricaneHunterJoe:


You lurk?.....NOOOOOOOOOOOOO............LOL

Lol been doing it for years

Quoting 128. nigel20:

Hurricane Dean (2007) had quite a SAL to contend with, but it wasn't a major inhibiting factor. Storms can moderate the SAL with a large enough moisture field.

Exactly.
And with this SAL it's moderate to weak now and still weakening.

Quoting 129. HurricaneHunterJoe:


The first one is in Mexico already WKC , almost to my house in Soooooo Cal....lol


Hmm still it's 500mb mid level system not storms
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Quoting 126. scott39:
Im nervously looking forward to tracking a hurricane in the Atlantic.
Have a Xanax?
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Quoting Vlad959810:

Where is it ?

Central Jamaica. It's partly cloudy at the moment.
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7874
Quoting 136. Vlad959810:

No! Too early
I mean now,not the entire season.
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Quoting 128. nigel20:

Hurricane Dean (2007) had quite a SAL to contend with, but it wasn't a major inhibiting factor. Storms can moderate the SAL with a large enough moisture field.
That was a long time ago.Things are different now.Everyone knows today more SAL less hurricanes.
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Quoting 116. prcane4you:
SAL will kill anything out of Africa,so forget about CV hurricanes.

No way! Too early
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

The reasons your looking at 500mb it beyond me
That thing over Bahamas could be anything and I still don't see anything around Tx

He's talking about the 10 day GFS, not what's happening right now.
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Impressive sea breeze t-storms building over southern Florida, compliments of ML feature formerly associate with Dorian mess.
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Quoting 44. nigel20:
Thanks Dr. Masters! Good morning all! Not much haze at the moment, but maybe that will change later today.




Where is it ?
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Kingston Jamaica weather station
( updated Sat, 03 Aug 2013 12:00 pm EST )

33°C
High: 33°C | Low: 27°C
Partly Cloudy

Sunrise: 5:44 am
Sunset: 6:38 pm
Visibility: 9.99 km
Feels like: 33°C
Humidity: 63%
Wind: 37.01 km/h

The weather station for Kingston today - August 3, 2013, 11:25 am: It is a HOT and NOT CLEAR today with an average degree of 33°C , visibility is at 9.99 km. However, there is relatively NORMAL humidity in the air at 63%, so it feels QUITE COMFORTABLE out here at the moment. Wind blow is so STRONG at 37.01 km/h on an EARLY sun rising day at: 5:44 am .
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7874
Quoting 125. HurricaneHunterJoe:


That shows both alright.....Has it been consistent for a few runs or? Any other model agreement?
I will get back with you on this..I am swamped.
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Quoting 116. prcane4you:
SAL will kill anything out of Africa,so forget about CV hurricanes.


Umm not really the Dust is dropping out with no dust between Africa and the CV islands dust elsewhere is quickly weakening except for the dust in the Caribbean is dying a little slower
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Quoting 114. wunderkidcayman:

The reasons your looking at 500mb it beyond me
That thing over Bahamas could be anything and I still don't see anything around Tx


The first one is in Mexico already WKC , almost to my house in Soooooo Cal....lol
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Quoting prcane4you:
SAL will kill anything out of Africa,so forget about CV hurricanes.

Hurricane Dean (2007) had quite a SAL to contend with, but it wasn't a major inhibiting factor. Storms can moderate the SAL with a large enough moisture field.
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7874
Quoting 124. wunderkidcayman:

Your very much welcome
You know that insight was for you as I was lurking for about a few mins reading what you all were going on about


You lurk?.....NOOOOOOOOOOOOO............LOL
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Im nervously looking forward to tracking a hurricane in the Atlantic.
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Quoting 109. hydrus:
This is the best I can do right now, One can see the remnant low over S.W. Texas. The other low is over or near the Bahamas heading for Florida.



That shows both alright.....Has it been consistent for a few runs or? Any other model agreement?
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Quoting 112. HurricaneHunterJoe:


I think that conclusion has been reached WKC, but as always thank you for your insights as well.

Your very much welcome
You know that insight was for you as I was lurking for about a few mins reading what you all were going on about
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Quoting 122. scott39:
Me too

That makes two of us.
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Quoting 120. 62901IL:

We know. In fact, i am starting to wonder if the COC is closed.
Me too
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Quoting 116. prcane4you:
SAL will kill anything out of Africa,so forget about CV hurricanes.
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Quoting 118. scott39:
To put it in simple laymen terms, most of the TDs convection is S of the center of circulation.

We know. In fact, i am starting to wonder if the COC is closed.
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THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE EAST AND WEST
COAST SEA BREEZES COLLIDE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN HAZARDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY WINDS...OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. FUNNEL CLOUDS AND BRIEF
WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...PARTICULARLY AROUND BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS.
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To put it in simple laymen terms, most of the TDs convection is S of the center of circulation.
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Quoting 954FtLCane:

I'm not a SAL fan myself. Hopefully if and when it arrives here it doesn't last for long. I believe we're supposed to have hazy sun here next week due to SAL with some scattered afternoon storms. Ugggggg.

Hi 954! It should have been an hazy day in Jamaica, but not much at the moment. It seems as if the moisture plume from central America is helping to moderate the SAL outbreak at the moment.
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7874
SAL will kill anything out of Africa,so forget about CV hurricanes.
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NHC issuing advisories on 3 storms at once.
Outrageous!!!
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Quoting 109. hydrus:
This is the best I can do right now, One can see the remnant low over S.W. Texas. The other low is over or near the Bahamas heading for Florida.


The reasons your looking at 500mb it beyond me
That thing over Bahamas could be anything and I still don't see anything around Tx
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Quoting 102. tornadodude:
Here is the SPC tornado threat map for today:



Should see storms form in a couple hours over the mountains of Colorado and Wyoming. As they move into the moist air just east of the Rockies, they should intensify. Some of the storms could produce hail up to baseball sized, as well as a few tornadoes.

Stay safe everyone!
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Quoting 105. wunderkidcayman:
Hey guys. many of you are asking, why is MLC and the LLC not in line? well the answer is simple. it is getting sheared by both Upper level shear and Mid level shear, which both are pushing S while LLC getting pushed ENE-NE by the low level steering. DONE!


I think that conclusion has been reached WKC, but as always thank you for your insights as well.
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Quoting 21. leftlink:
2 1/2 hour animated loop. Headed East-Northeast, almost due east! Last image at 11:15 e.s.t.


Looks almost stationary or headed slowly SE. Looks like Dorian's center is waiting for his clothing to catch upto him.
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Seems the winds in that area are CONFUSED to say the least all kinds of directions and at different layers. Or maybe it's just me who is CONFUSED?...LOL
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Quoting 103. unknowncomic:
I don't see what yor talking about, but this is a cool graphic.

This is the best I can do right now, One can see the remnant low over S.W. Texas. The other low is over or near the Bahamas heading for Florida.

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GFS from 10 days ago, not to bad on position, strength overdone.


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Quoting 90. NCHurricane2009:

The green and yellow barbs are low to mid-level in that image you posted...which indeed shows the low to mid-level flow is southerly which is pushing Dorian's surface swirl northbound....

Unfortunately that image only has very scattered upper level (400 mb) wind barbs....which are the light-blue colored ones. Click on HDW-H checkbox on this animation...and you will see a high density of upper wind barbs that show the upper winds in Dorian's area are indeed northerly....


Thank you....I looked at that loop...if the MLC follows those winds is the MLC going into the GOM as per those N and NE/E wind barbs? And perhaps that is what someone else mentioned about it following the BAMD model into gulf?
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Quoting 14. CaribBoy:


I think this is the strongest SAL of the season ! THIS IS UGLY... GO AWAY SAL!!

I'm not a SAL fan myself. Hopefully if and when it arrives here it doesn't last for long. I believe we're supposed to have hazy sun here next week due to SAL with some scattered afternoon storms. Ugggggg.
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Hey guys. many of you are asking, why is MLC and the LLC not in line? well the answer is simple. it is getting sheared by both Upper level shear and Mid level shear, which both are pushing S while LLC getting pushed ENE-NE by the low level steering. DONE!
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Quoting 59. HurricaneHunterJoe:
As per 1500z CMISS all 850,700,500 mb levels still stacked...... what gives?



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Quoting 85. hydrus:
Has anyone seen the latest GFS run..It is showing two storms hitting Florida, then Texas..This is the third time it has shown this scenario,,Link

I don't see what yor talking about, but this is a cool graphic.

Member Since: August 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1780
Here is the SPC tornado threat map for today:



Should see storms form in a couple hours over the mountains of Colorado and Wyoming. As they move into the moist air just east of the Rockies, they should intensify. Some of the storms could produce hail up to baseball sized, as well as a few tornadoes.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Mid to Upper level steering

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THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE EAST AND WEST
COAST SEA BREEZES COLLIDE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN HAZARDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY WINDS...OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. FUNNEL CLOUDS AND BRIEF
WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...PARTICULARLY AROUND BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
After a short break of the intense heatwave in Middle Europe early this week, extreme heat continues throughout the weekend. The highest recorded temperature of 39.7°C in 1983 in Austria was surpassed by 0.2°C today - 39.9°C were measured in Carinthia. Drought conditions are already spreading across much of the country. Since the heatwave is expected to last for at least an additional week, and hot and dry conditions are expected to persist even thereafter, a complete loss of the crop yield is feared. Especially the corn crop is threatened, as 70% are estimated to be destroyed already.
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Quoting 90. NCHurricane2009:

The green and yellow barbs are low to mid-level in that image you posted...which indeed shows the low to mid-level flow is southerly which is pushing Dorian's surface swirl northbound....

Unfortunately that image only has very scattered upper level (400 mb) wind barbs....which are the light-blue colored ones. Click on HDW-H checkbox on this animation...and you will see a high density of upper wind barbs that show the upper winds in Dorian's area are indeed northerly....


Thanks NC hurricane and MLC
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96. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting 89. wunderweatherman123:
where are the tropics? i need something long to track


I half expect to see Dorian as a formitable extra-tropical low ripping open the the NW passage late next week.
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Quoting 86. spathy:







COL ? LOL
Col me..The song by Blondie.?
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Jeff that is hysterical!!!! I think I will disagree with you and go with the NWS line. Go to the lowest interior room. I don't own a chainsaw!!! Thank you for all the education you have given to us over the years.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.