Dorian Makes a Short-Lived Comeback as a Tropical Depression

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:37 PM GMT on August 03, 2013

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Like an annoying fly buzzing around your head that just won't go away, Dorian is back. Dorian began as a tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa on July 22. Although initially given only a 10% of developing, Dorian surprised forecasters by becoming the 2nd farthest east-forming tropical storm for so early in the year on July 24. Dorian peaked in strength on July 25, when its top winds reached 60 mph. On July 26, Dorian encountered a dryer, more stable atmosphere, and the storm dissipated to a tropical wave on July 27. The remnants of Dorian continued tracking west-northwest, passing north of the Lesser Antilles Islands and into the Bahamas this week. Finally, at 5 AM EDT this Saturday morning, the remnants of Dorian reorganized enough to prompt the National Hurricane Center to upgrade Dorian's remnants to be Tropical Depression Dorian.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Dorian, showing the surface circulation exposed to view as a naked swirl of low clouds, and a modest area of heavy thunderstorms well to the south of the center.

Dorian does not have long to live, due to high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots that has removed all of the storm's heavy thunderstorms far from the center, leaving the surface circulation exposed to view as a naked swirl of low clouds. With wind shear expected to rise even further this weekend, Dorian will likely be dead by Sunday, and get absorbed into the cold front lying off of the Southeast U.S. coast. Dorian is not a threat to any land areas.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone formation over the coming week.


Video 1. With Discovery Channel's Shark Week approaching, Veronica of the web video series, "Fact or Fictional?" talks with me and a marine biologist about sharknadoes. Is it possible for a ferocious tornado to rip through Southern California, raining man eating sharks? My bit starts about halfway through the video.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 1518. OminousBlackClouds:
Hello WU, I'm a new poster but have been following hurricanes for a few years now. I have always been fascinated by extreme weather and have experienced almost everything EXCEPT a hurricane.

With that being said, I was wondering if anyone could give me links to where you get all your information on models, forecasts, radar etc. It would be greatly appreciated.



Welcome!

We don't bite... too much. ;)

:P
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Quoting 1518. OminousBlackClouds:
Hello WU, I'm a new poster but have been following hurricanes for a few years now. I have always been fascinated by extreme weather and have experienced almost everything EXCEPT a hurricane.

With that being said, I was wondering if anyone could give me links to where you get all your information on models, forecasts, radar etc. It would be greatly appreciated.


Welcome to WU!

This site has most of everything you've asked for, and then some.
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Quoting 1538. Astrometeor:


Easiest way is whenever someone posts a chart you like, then ask for the link. That's what I do. Saying that,
Tropical Tidbits
there's a start for you, others here have a lot more resources than I do.


You know what peeves me? When people hide every single URL under imgur or tinypic. Luckily I have most of what gets posted, but on the rare times where I don't, it really pisses me off. :P
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Quoting 1518. OminousBlackClouds:
Hello WU, I'm a new poster but have been following hurricanes for a few years now. I have always been fascinated by extreme weather and have experienced almost everything EXCEPT a hurricane.

With that being said, I was wondering if anyone could give me links to where you get all your information on models, forecasts, radar etc. It would be greatly appreciated.



Ominous, good blog handle btw! ;) Jump in where you can and contribute. There's some interesting bloggers here with lots of tropical knowledge. I have a "Tropical" bookmark folder created and copy links/graphics posted for future reference. I've got tons of them that I've accumulated over the years. And, most people are very willing to share links, etc.

Another good place to start that has a variety of good links is at stormjunkie.com. Stormjunkie is also very involved with Portlight Strategies, a non-profit group created by a few bloggers here to help in the aftermath of storms, disasters. Good group. :)

And, then of course, too, there's WU's own tropical page full of a variety of links to various tropical related sites, graphics, etc.


Welcome to the fray! ;) But it's a good place the majority of the time!
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1539. vis0
CREDIT: Imagery provided courtesy of the Naval Research Laboratory Monterey
The next 2 month trend begins FULLY in 2-3 days.
For CLUEs as to how i use the word "trend" as to a science i call Galacsics please read this blogbit on my wxu blog.
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Quoting 1518. OminousBlackClouds:
Hello WU, I'm a new poster but have been following hurricanes for a few years now. I have always been fascinated by extreme weather and have experienced almost everything EXCEPT a hurricane.

With that being said, I was wondering if anyone could give me links to where you get all your information on models, forecasts, radar etc. It would be greatly appreciated.



Easiest way is whenever someone posts a chart you like, then ask for the link. That's what I do. Saying that,
Tropical Tidbits
there's a start for you, others here have a lot more resources than I do.
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1537. nigel20
Quoting 1530. Slamguitar:


Nice radar!!

Yeah, but it's not yet fully functional! Here's the link: Jamaican radar
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7877
Quoting 1509. moonlightcowboy:


EUMETSAT'S DUST PRODUCT

The Wave train has left the station, destined for the Caribbean, Gulf or Atlantic.

Member Since: August 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1780
Good Night All! Should get very interesting at the end of the week , and especially next week on !
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Quoting moonlightcowboy:


I like Gro. Got no problem with him, none at all. But, he said "let people post what they want" as if I had any say in what people post, LOL. And, does his statement not include me posting what I want as well? ;) Goofy. I won't waste any more time over it. If he wants to be childish sobeit.

I'm not here to make friends. I'm here to discuss tropical weather, nothing more/less.


geez dude, chill. Your talking all hostile. Relax.

Of course you can say whatever you want, no one can stop you.
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Quoting 1528. Grothar:


As long as you do the same. Even if it were ambiguous, you should know me better by now. I don't tell people what to think, write, post or even assume.


Grothar, show me a single post where I've told anyone to post or not post anything? You can't, cause I haven't. Now, let's stop this crap or take it off line and talk about it, please. The blog is not the place.

Thanks, and peace out!
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1532. Grothar
Quoting 1525. nigel20:

Good night Gro!


Good night, Nigel.
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Quoting 1526. AussieStorm:


I think you took what Gro said the wrong way. He means no matter how often it is said that SAL and Dry air is talked about on here. People don't really care and post whatever they want about SAL and dry air. Even though what you showed was right.


I like Gro. Got no problem with him, none at all. But, he said "let people post what they want" as if I had any say in what people post, LOL. And, does his statement not include me posting what I want as well? ;) Goofy. I won't waste any more time over it. If he wants to be childish sobeit.
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Quoting 1510. nigel20:
Good evening all!



Current Weather Conditions:
Kingston / Norman Manley, Jamaica

Conditions at

2013.08.05 0200 UTC

Wind from the SE (140 degrees) at 15 MPH (13 KT)

Visibility greater than 7 mile(s)

Sky conditions mostly clear

Temperature 86 F (30 C)
Heat index 95.0 F (35.0 C)
Dew Point 75 F (24 C)
Relative Humidity 70%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.97 in. Hg (1015 hPa)


Nice radar!!
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1529. Grothar
Quoting 1524. Stormchaser121:

Hi Grothar...with the patterns setting up...could TX have a storm this year? This is going on 5 years we have had nothing.


I hope you get enough to wet you all down some. Nothing big though.
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1528. Grothar
Quoting 1523. moonlightcowboy:



I like you just fine, Grothar. You're a good poster, informative and jovial. Just don't tell me what to and not to post, please, either. I mean, your statement was ambiguous even. I can have fun posting too you know! ;)


As long as you do the same. Even if it were ambiguous, you should know me better by now. I don't tell people what to think, write, post or even assume.
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Quoting Grothar:
Good Night everybody.




Gute Nacht Grothar


I'll be back later. My AVG is scanning so best I leave it be.
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Quoting moonlightcowboy:



I like you just fine, Grothar. You're a good poster, informative and jovial. Just don't tell me what to and not to post, please, either. I mean, your statement was ambiguous even. I can have fun posting too you know! ;)


I think you took what Gro said the wrong way. He means no matter how often it is said that SAL and Dry air is talked about on here. People don't really care and post whatever they want about SAL and dry air. Even though what you showed was right.
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1525. nigel20
Quoting 1521. Grothar:
Good Night everybody.



Good night Gro!
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7877
Quoting 1521. Grothar:
Good Night everybody.



Hi Grothar...with the patterns setting up...could TX have a storm this year? This is going on 5 years we have had nothing.
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Quoting 1519. Grothar:


I was just joshing with you cowboy. But if that's your attitude you won't have to worry about me posting to you anymore.



I like you just fine, Grothar. You're a good poster, informative and jovial. Just don't tell me what to and not to post, please. I mean, your statement was ambiguous even. I, too, can have fun posting you know! ;)
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TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082013
800 PM PDT SUN AUG 04 2013

HENRIETTE HAS STRENGTHENED A LITTLE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.
ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED RECENTLY...VISIBLE AND
SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGES INDICATE THAT BANDING FEATURES HAVE
BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. THE
CLOUD PATTERN DOES STILL SHOW SIGNS OF EASTERLY SHEAR...WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER.
THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS NUDGED UPWARD TO 45 KT...WHICH IS ON THE
LOW END OF THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED
TO LESSEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING...AND HENRIETTE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
HURRICANE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS. WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED TO
BEGIN IN 3 TO 4 DAYS WHEN HENRIETTE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER WATERS
COOLER THAN 26C AND INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS. THE LATEST NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT ON
THE LOW SIDE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

THE TROPICAL STORM HAS BEEN MOVING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY...AND THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 260/7
KT. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON MONDAY
WHEN THE STORM APPROACHES A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...
INDUCED BY A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW WEST OF CALIFORNIA. A
TURN BACK TO THE WEST IS PREDICTED BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE WEAKENING CYCLONE BECOMES MORE INFLUENCED BY A LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 12.0N 127.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 12.2N 128.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 12.8N 130.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 13.5N 131.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 14.2N 133.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 15.5N 136.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 09/0000Z 16.0N 140.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 10/0000Z 16.5N 145.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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1521. Grothar
Good Night everybody.


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TCDEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072013
800 PM PDT SUN AUG 04 2013

GIL IS MAINTAINING TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS...FOR NOW. A SMALL BURST
OF DEEP CONVECTION WAS NOTED NEAR AND TO THE WEST OF THE ESTIMATED
CENTER...ALTHOUGH THERE IS LITTLE EVIDENCE OF BANDING FEATURES.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS KEPT AT 30 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH
DATA FROM AN EARLIER ASCAT OVERPASS AND A DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM
TAFB. THE DEPRESSION IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE EASTERLY
SHEAR AND MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE
INDICATES SOME INCREASE IN SHEAR DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND
THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THAT
TIME FRAME. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE ENVIRONMENT COULD
BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR REINTENSIFICATION SO THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT GIL COULD MAKE A COMEBACK IN SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THIS SMALL SYSTEM WILL MAKE IT
THAT LONG. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED AND
LIES BETWEEN THE HWRF AND LGEM GUIDANCE.

LATEST CENTER FIXES INDICATE THAT THE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
MOTION...255/7...CONTINUES. A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE
GLOBAL MODELS TO PERSIST TO THE NORTH OF GIL...OR ITS REMNANT
LOW...THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...LIKE
THE PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWS A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST IN A COUPLE
OF DAYS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS NOT
FAR FROM THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND NOT QUITE AS FAST AS THE
ECMWF MODEL PREDICTION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 14.0N 137.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 13.6N 138.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 13.0N 139.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 06/1200Z 12.6N 141.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 07/0000Z 12.4N 143.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 08/0000Z 12.5N 146.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 09/0000Z 12.5N 150.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 10/0000Z 12.5N 153.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

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1519. Grothar
Quoting 1512. moonlightcowboy:



Thanks, Grothar, but I'll post as I please. ;)

Saying SAL and dry air is coming into the Atlantic is redundant and misleading, not a true interpretation of conditions at hand. SAL is dry air and contains various amounts of dust at times.


I was just joshing with you cowboy. But if that's your attitude you won't have to worry about me posting to you anymore.
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Hello WU, I'm a new poster but have been following hurricanes for a few years now. I have always been fascinated by extreme weather and have experienced almost everything EXCEPT a hurricane.

With that being said, I was wondering if anyone could give me links to where you get all your information on models, forecasts, radar etc. It would be greatly appreciated.

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Vorticity on the increase within the ITCZ nearer South America.

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Quoting 1514. beell:

Same strong subsident NE flowe that did in Dorian still in place across the Gulf and another TUTT low north of PR/DR blasting most of the Caribbean with strong W/SW wind shear.



Exactly, Beell. Thanks.

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Quoting txjac:


It looks like it will cost the average household about 25-30 cents a day ...and you will hear the complaining!

Just throw this back at them:
"While desalinating 1,000 US gallons (3,800 l; 830 imp gal) of water can cost as much as $3, the same amount of bottled water costs $7,945"

Above statement in bold is compliments of Wiki


and most bottled water is just plain tap water. You pay for the bottle and the name. Also How much oil goes into making 1 bottle?
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1514. beell
NHC had a little trouble separating the next tropical wave from the mid-level inverted trough across the central Atlantic-but I think they got it finally.

Probably a moot point as the Caribbean and Gulf still look hostile this week. Same strong subsident NE flow that did in Dorian still in place across the Gulf and another TUTT low north of PR/DR blasting most of the Caribbean with strong W/SW wind shear.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT AUG 03 2013

A TROPICAL WAVE W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 20N32W
TO 10N33W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE IS SURROUNDED BY A LARGE
AREA OF VERY DRY AND DUSTY SAHARAN AIR SUPPRESSING CONVECTION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH IS ALONG 40W FROM 24N TO 19N...TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. THIS FEATURE IS COMING FROM THE
MID LATITUDES AND IS FORECAST TO MERGE WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE
WITHIN 18 HOURS. THE MERGED TROUGH/TROPICAL WAVE WILL PROGRESS
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...REACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN AUG 04 2013

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N35W TO 19N34W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS
WITH A MID-LATITUDE SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED TO THE NW OF THE
WAVE FROM 18N40W TO 25N39W. WHILE NEITHER FEATURE EXHIBITS A
STRONG SIGNAL ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IN GLOBAL MODEL
DATA...ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH EACH ARE FORECAST TO MERGE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC AND CONTINUE A
WESTWARD MOVEMENT TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES REACHING 60W BY
MONDAY.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN AUG 04 2013

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N36W TO 19N38W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WITH
MID-LATITUDE MID-LEVEL TROUGHING NOTED TO THE NW OF THE WAVE IN
THE VICINITY OF 21N46W. WHILE NEITHER FEATURE EXHIBITS A STRONG
SIGNAL ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IN GLOBAL MODEL DATA...ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH EACH ARE FORECAST TO MERGE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC AND CONTINUE A WESTWARD
MOVEMENT TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES REACHING 60W BY MONDAY


TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN AUG 04 2013

A BROAD TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N38W TO 21N40W MOVING W AT
ABOUT 20 KT. THE WAVE IS PART OF A LARGER AREA OF OVERALL BROAD
TROUGHING IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND IS COUPLED WITH MID-
LATITUDE MID-LEVEL TROUGHING NOTED TO THE NW OF THE WAVE IN THE
VICINITY OF 21N47W. WHILE NEITHER FEATURE EXHIBITS A STRONG
SIGNAL ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IN GLOBAL MODEL DATA...ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH EACH ARE FORECAST TO MERGE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC AND CONTINUE A FAIRLY RAPID
WESTWARD MOVEMENT TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES REACHING 60W BY
TUE.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN AUG 04 2013

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W/43W TO THE SOUTH OF
23N. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 20 KNOTS. THE WAVE STANDS
OUT IN LONG-TERM SATELLITE IMAGERY. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CURVES ALONG 18N58W 21N52W 19N44W. CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 14N TO 28N BETWEEN 36W AND 59W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 18N TO 31N BETWEEN 38W AND 53W.
THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AREA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

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Quoting 1415. RitaEvac:
Getting that sinking feeling around here, first week of August and nuttin....just like every season, another season passing us on by with no beneficial rains. I don't believe we'll get a thing again here in TX

Think positive! Our storms are usually in September anyway. Rita...Humberto...Ike...
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Quoting 1511. Grothar:



LOL You stole my globe. I gave up years ago trying to explain the different layers of the SAL and the implications on storm formation. Just let people post what they want and let them have fun.



Thanks, Grothar, but I'll post as I please. ;)

Saying SAL and dry air is coming into the Atlantic is redundant and misleading, not a true interpretation of conditions at hand. SAL is dry air and contains various amounts of dust at times.
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1511. Grothar
Quoting 1509. moonlightcowboy:





LOL You stole my globe. I gave up years ago trying to explain the different layers of the SAL and the implications on storm formation. Just let people post what they want and let them have fun.
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1510. nigel20
Good evening all!



Current Weather Conditions:
Kingston / Norman Manley, Jamaica

Conditions at

2013.08.05 0200 UTC

Wind from the SE (140 degrees) at 15 MPH (13 KT)

Visibility greater than 7 mile(s)

Sky conditions mostly clear

Temperature 86 F (30 C)
Heat index 95.0 F (35.0 C)
Dew Point 75 F (24 C)
Relative Humidity 70%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.97 in. Hg (1015 hPa)
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7877
Quoting 1508. Grothar:


EUMETSAT'S DUST PRODUCT

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1508. Grothar
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Quoting 1453. JLPR2:


Not impossible but unlikely. There are a few spins in the ITCZ/Monsoon Trof but they tend to stay there. Now, if one grows strong enough to dominate the area or breaks free from the ITCZ, we might have something.


The CMC does have a possible TD forming in a few days.



And another one not long after



Although they don't amount to much afterwards and die out.

Wouldn't be surprised if we get a system or two in the next week or so though.
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Quoting pottery:

And snow was falling in southern Brasil last week.

Weirdness !


Down on the Snowy Mountains they had 50cm(19.69in) of snow in 48hrs.
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As we focus toward the Cape Verde season, every time I see this crazy CIMSS SAL chart I'm going to post this:

SAL is not simply just dust. And, the above CIMSS SAL graphic poorly depicts dust. Seems that bloggers often confuse that chart which most of the time more aptly represents large areas of dry air, not specifically and uniquely dust. SAL (Saharan Air Layer) may not even contain dust or have very little dust at times. And, certainly there are times when it can definitely have higher concentrations of dust. In such a heavy dust case, the CIMSS graphic would tend to show higher dust concentrations depicted in more pinkish colors instead of orange. The orange is often confused as representing a heavy saturation of dust which is not the case. The orange is mostly hot, dry air. See the CIMSS legend to note the differences.


SAL is, in fact, both a combination of various saturation amounts of dust accompanied by hot, dry air that comes from the Saharan desert north of the Sahel region of Africa. SAL can have hot, dry air without dust, but never dust without hot, dry air. SAL is more about hot, dry air from the Saharan desert than it is dust particularly. Dry, sinking air (subsidence) as we witnessed profusely with Dorian, is considerably more detrimental to cyclogenesis and to a storm's tropical maturity than is dust. Note, too, that dust generally occurs/is found most often in the mid-level 500mb layer which is not the primary cyclogenesis layer anyways. "This arrangement is an inversion where the temperature increases with height. The boundary between the SAL and the marine layer suppresses or "caps" any convection originating in the marine layer." (Wiki)

Please use EUMETSAT's dust graphic product to discern dust, or TAU's dust product (works most of the time) - both more credibly represent dust in the Atlantic basin than does CIMSS. Dust is depicted in pink in the Eumetsat graphic below.

EUMETSAT'S DUST GRAPHIIC





CIMSS does, however, have two other good graphics that better show mid and upper level water vapor saturations when discerning SAL.

MID-LEVEL WATER VAPOR





UPPER-LEVEL WATER VAPOR




IMO, this is a much better combination of graphics to discern a truer picture of dust, dry air.
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Quoting 1486. Pallis:
While a noble thought, it has already been done. In the West it created the water wars where big cities are pitted against farmers for profit(cities win). In the East the same thing now, Georgia farmers who are by nature land greedy, beady eyed clay eaters suck up the water before it reaches Florida and the oysters and shrimp don't breed because of lack of fresh water and increased fertilizers.Every time we try to change the earth drastically we fail. Man, the worst thing to have ever visited the planet, coming to wreak havoc on your utopia soon.


With all due respect, not the same thing I'm talking about. What they've done in the West is the siphoning off of the very lifeblood of the Colorado and other rivers. The sad little river that Georgia, Alabama and Florida are fighting over has such terrible demands made on it every year, it probably literally could not rain hard enough in the Southeast to make the Chattahoochee satisfy all three states.

What I am talking about, on the other hand, is removal of excess water when it is at severe flood levels only. We may not know everything about everything yet, but we know roughly what a normal flood and dry cycle is, and that we ought to leave it alone. No flood at the right time of the year, and salt water intrudes too deep in the bays and estuaries, and predators kill the young oysters and eat off the bases of the bald cypress trees. I know how nature works.

But this year, here in Florida's Everglades we're having the worst wet season since 1968 -- and we haven't even had a hurricane yet. Florida Fish & Wildlife says we're close to conditions that in 1994 cost us 90% of our Everglades deer. IndianRiverGuy has been telling us for weeks about the manatee and dolphin kills from the extra water releases up his way.

Beyond all the screaming headlines, when can you remember the last really good farm crop for American farmers? When was the last time ranchers were selling in normal demand and not because they couldn't afford to feed their cattle in drought?

I just think water is something we could've saved ourselves a lot of money over if we'd gotten smart about it a couple decades ago. Just like it would've been great if America had really learned from the Arab Oil Embargo of the '70s that getting off our oil addiction might've been a really good thing. Now we can't seem to "buy" normal weather in the U.S. any more -- in any year. We don't need to repeat the mistakes of the past -- and that includes your examples about water in the Southwest. But it's hard for me to believe we can't do any better than just flushing billions of gallons of unwanted rainwater into marine environments that desperately don't want it either.

Wow... I'm on a tear tonight! Now it really IS time for supper. ...Sorry, Blog; we now return you to your local rainy/rainless weather!!
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1503. ncstorm
Quoting 1468. AussieStorm:
HAHAHAHAHA



I saw this and just had to share it.


where did you find bastardi pics?
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1502. pottery
Quoting Chicklit:

Link Rainbow Loop looks promising

Yep, it looks promising.
I had said some days ago that Aug 10-15 was when I thought the rains would start in earnest.
I may get it right for a change !
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1501. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11
9:00 AM JST August 5 2013
================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In South China Sea

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 10.8N 118.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest slowly.

Dvorak intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 12.5N 116.5E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
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Quoting 1498. pottery:

Yeah, I was looking at that too.
Hoping for some showers, and the dust should be moving on over the next 24 hrs or so.
Winds are pretty gentle, so it's all happening in SuperSloMo.......

Link Rainbow Loop looks promising
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1499. txjac
Quoting 1485. txjac:


Interesting, I'll have to look in to the process.


It looks like it will cost the average household about 25-30 cents a day ...and you will hear the complaining!

Just throw this back at them:
"While desalinating 1,000 US gallons (3,800 l; 830 imp gal) of water can cost as much as $3, the same amount of bottled water costs $7,945"

Above statement in bold is compliments of Wiki
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1498. pottery
Quoting Chicklit:
da wave...da wave!
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES... ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W/43W TO THE SOUTH OF 23N. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 20 KNOTS.

THE WAVE STANDS OUT IN LONG-TERM SATELLITE IMAGERY. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURVES ALONG 18N58W 21N52W 19N44W.

CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 14N TO 28N BETWEEN 36W AND 59W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 18N TO 31N BETWEEN 38W AND 53W.

THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
Hey Potts, this may help clear out some of your Afrikan dust.

Yeah, I was looking at that too.
Hoping for some showers, and the dust should be moving on over the next 24 hrs or so.
Winds are pretty gentle, so it's all happening in SuperSloMo.......
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1497. K8eCane
Quoting 1476. RitaEvac:


My city

LEAGUE CITY — A San Antonio company is hoping to bring cheap desalinated water to Galveston County. Salt of the Earth is looking to open a desalinization plant that will produce water at a lower price than other such plants and produce chemicals it can sell.
Quoting 1476. RitaEvac:


My city

LEAGUE CITY — A San Antonio company is hoping to bring cheap desalinated water to Galveston County. Salt of the Earth is looking to open a desalinization plant that will produce water at a lower price than other such plants and produce chemicals it can sell.


heres wishing a bunch of rain on you kid
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1496. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
metop live coming over east SA s atl MDR

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da wave...da wave!
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES... ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W/43W TO THE SOUTH OF 23N. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 20 KNOTS.

THE WAVE STANDS OUT IN LONG-TERM SATELLITE IMAGERY. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURVES ALONG 18N58W 21N52W 19N44W.

CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 14N TO 28N BETWEEN 36W AND 59W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 18N TO 31N BETWEEN 38W AND 53W.

THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
Hey Potts, this may help clear out some of your Afrikan dust.
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Is that a wave between 40-45w? It has a lot of dry air to the north and west but looks interesting. No?
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1493. pottery
Quoting txjac:


Interesting, I'll have to look in to the process.

We have a couple DeSal plants here, mostly producing water for heavy industry.
Fortunately, our water is low salinity (thanks to the Orinoco river), and we have lots of cheap gas to run them.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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