Dorian Makes a Short-Lived Comeback as a Tropical Depression

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:37 PM GMT on August 03, 2013

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Like an annoying fly buzzing around your head that just won't go away, Dorian is back. Dorian began as a tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa on July 22. Although initially given only a 10% of developing, Dorian surprised forecasters by becoming the 2nd farthest east-forming tropical storm for so early in the year on July 24. Dorian peaked in strength on July 25, when its top winds reached 60 mph. On July 26, Dorian encountered a dryer, more stable atmosphere, and the storm dissipated to a tropical wave on July 27. The remnants of Dorian continued tracking west-northwest, passing north of the Lesser Antilles Islands and into the Bahamas this week. Finally, at 5 AM EDT this Saturday morning, the remnants of Dorian reorganized enough to prompt the National Hurricane Center to upgrade Dorian's remnants to be Tropical Depression Dorian.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Dorian, showing the surface circulation exposed to view as a naked swirl of low clouds, and a modest area of heavy thunderstorms well to the south of the center.

Dorian does not have long to live, due to high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots that has removed all of the storm's heavy thunderstorms far from the center, leaving the surface circulation exposed to view as a naked swirl of low clouds. With wind shear expected to rise even further this weekend, Dorian will likely be dead by Sunday, and get absorbed into the cold front lying off of the Southeast U.S. coast. Dorian is not a threat to any land areas.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone formation over the coming week.


Video 1. With Discovery Channel's Shark Week approaching, Veronica of the web video series, "Fact or Fictional?" talks with me and a marine biologist about sharknadoes. Is it possible for a ferocious tornado to rip through Southern California, raining man eating sharks? My bit starts about halfway through the video.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 221. Grothar:
From the Wunderground warning at the top of my page.


A significant weather advisory is in effect for northeastern
Broward County... southeastern Palm Beach County... for frequent to
excessive lightning and gusty winds of 45 to 55 mph...

* until 300 PM EDT... Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.


I was awakened by this round of house-shaking thunderboomers.

Or rather, they awakened the 4 sleeping kittens (with 80 little razor claws) on top of me, and they in turn woke me.

(Northwest Sunrise, near the Sawgrass Expressway)
Member Since: July 16, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 485
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Hi nigel. How is the haze there? Here the sky is very gray with almost no clouds.

It's not very hazy at the moment. I took some pictures earlier...you can see them at post #: 44.
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Nothing but hot and calm in the GOM Vermilion Block 179. Expecting heat index near 105 today. Watching my guys for heat related issues.
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Quoting 226. HurricaneHunterJoe:


Call em up and tell them to include strong thunder in their warnings.



I know another warning I could give. :)
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
239. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 3 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DORIAN LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...MOVING AWAY
FROM THE UNITED STATES SOUTHEAST COAST.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS.


&&
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION DORIAN ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT34 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT24 KNHC AND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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Thanks so much all! IT does, however, seem like things have been a bit off for the past few seasons. Btw, I'm in West Boca, Florida. We've been listening to the thunder for about 30 minutes, and it just started pouring down rain!Was going sideways for awhile, but has returned to a normal vertical pattern for now!
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College of DuPage Meteorology

Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes.

Warnings are listed with the most recent first.

Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.

FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEMPHIS TN - KMEG 1204 PM CDT SAT AUG 3 2013
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Quoting 229. Grothar:


Yes, there was a shift, but probably not enough to change the climate. The axis of the earth moves in cyles of about 23,000 years I believe and of course that changes the climate drastically. Any strong earthquake can make the earth shake for hours or days.


Thought I heard that the Japan 9.0 from 2011? did the same thing.
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Quoting 225. Grothar:


That is why I never use sarcasm in my posts.


I have no problem with sarcasm once I know someone's particular bent/bias/philosophy/style. But it takes a while for that to develop, so if I choose to use sarcasm, I point it out with things like "(smile), (grin), (/sarcasm)".

I also have no problem admitting when I'm wrong. It happens so seldom, it generally causes no pain. (smile)
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Quoting 178. Grothar:
Strong thunder and lightning to our west.


Yup storm just moving in. Looks like another strong one. You're next.
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Good Afternoon! My husband collects rainwater in a barrel to flush the commodes. Not because he has to, just one of the few things he does to conserve and reuse. Anyhow, the water is usually crystal clear but as of this morning, it has a brown tinge to it. Could that be SAL dust? Or is that a crazy thought?
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Quoting 227. PensacolaDoug:
Why has the arctic been so chill this year? If it's temp was above average, it'd be discussed here daily.


Don't you worry Doug, the ice volume is still 2 standard deviations below the 1979-2012 baseline. The arctic has had another wild ride this summer. :)
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Quoting 217. nigel20:

Hi Tropics! I think we can get 10 storms between August and September, maybe 2 storms in October as well.


Hi nigel. How is the haze there? Here the sky is very gray with almost no clouds.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14890
Quoting 226. HurricaneHunterJoe:


Call em up and tell them to include strong thunder in their warnings.


Booming thunder and lots of rain here in Coral Springs, FL. Quite nice for a sleepy Saturday afternoon.
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Quoting 210. ProphetessofDoom:
So I have a weird question. I am a long-time lurker, not a troll, so this question is not intended to start any sort of unrest. I have heard it said that the earthquake and ensuing of tsunami of 2004 shifted the earth just the slightest bit on it's axis. And it seems that since that point in 2004, we've seen a changes in seasonal patterns across the globe i.e. shorter cool seasons in tropical/subtropical areas, winters that have seemed to start later and ended later. And it seems like over the past few years, the meat of the seasons have started a bit later and ended later. Is there some sort of correlation?


Yes, there was a shift, but probably not enough to change the climate. The axis of the earth moves in cyles of about 23,000 years I believe and of course that changes the climate drastically. Any strong earthquake can make the earth shake for hours or days.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
I also have a Yellow Statement Gro,..we Big timers now me tinks.

The Beta went well seems, so Aaron unleashed the code.

The Art of Code Fu is alive and well on wu.


Orleans
Special Statement
Statement as of 12:25 PM CDT on August 03, 2013

... Hot muggy day expected across the region...

Today will be another hot Summer day during what has actually been a
somewhat cool Summer. Highs today will range from the lower to mid
90s but with a very humid airmass in place... heat index values
will range from 100 to 105 degrees in most places. Nearly all
reporting locations saw morning lows cool enough to not warrant
the issuance of a heat advisory. However... locations along the
southshore will have the potential to see heat index values touch
105 degrees... or even a degree or two higher for a few hours.
Please take precautions today and try to keep cool.

Drink lots of water... take breaks often in the shade or in the air
conditioning... wear light weight and light colored clothing... wear
sunscreen to avoid burning... and never leave a child or pet in the
car.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Why has the arctic been so chill this year? If it's temp was above average, it'd be discussed here daily.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 221. Grothar:
From the Wunderground warning at the top of my page.


A significant weather advisory is in effect for northeastern
Broward County... southeastern Palm Beach County... for frequent to
excessive lightning and gusty winds of 45 to 55 mph...

* until 300 PM EDT

* at 225 PM EDT... National Weather Service meteorologists detected a
strong thunderstorm near Parkland... and moving northeast at 20 mph.



* The storm will affect...
Parkland...
sandalfoot Cove...
Mission Bay...
Boca west...
and surrounding communities.

The primary impacts will be frequent to excessive lightning and gusty
winds of 45 to 55 mph. Lightning is the number one weather related
killer in Florida. Trees and open shelters offer no protection. These
winds can down small tree limbs and branches... and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.


Call em up and tell them to include strong thunder in their warnings.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 201. DocMurphy:


My fault. I jumped the gun. Sarcasm can be difficult to catch in text sometimes. I put your comments and Patrap's comments together and made a bad calculation (1 1=4)

Edit to add: My humor is lost on people quite often as well.


That is why I never use sarcasm in my posts.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
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img src=""> new video!!
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Quoting 210. ProphetessofDoom:
So I have a weird question. I am a long-time lurker, not a troll, so this question is not intended to start any sort of unrest. I have heard it said that the earthquake and ensuing of tsunami of 2004 shifted the earth just the slightest bit on it's axis. And it seems that since that point in 2004, we've seen a changes in seasonal patterns across the globe i.e. shorter cool seasons in tropical/subtropical areas, winters that have seemed to start later and ended later. And it seems like over the past few years, the meat of the seasons have started a bit later and ended later. Is there some sort of correlation?


Beyond my pay grade....Gro...Sar?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
From the Wunderground warning at the top of my page.


A significant weather advisory is in effect for northeastern
Broward County... southeastern Palm Beach County... for frequent to
excessive lightning and gusty winds of 45 to 55 mph...

* until 300 PM EDT

* at 225 PM EDT... National Weather Service meteorologists detected a
strong thunderstorm near Parkland... and moving northeast at 20 mph.



* The storm will affect...
Parkland...
sandalfoot Cove...
Mission Bay...
Boca west...
and surrounding communities.

The primary impacts will be frequent to excessive lightning and gusty
winds of 45 to 55 mph. Lightning is the number one weather related
killer in Florida. Trees and open shelters offer no protection. These
winds can down small tree limbs and branches... and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
Ignore User

Nobody's Fault But Mine

: )
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Quoting 210. ProphetessofDoom:
So I have a weird question. I am a long-time lurker, not a troll, so this question is not intended to start any sort of unrest. I have heard it said that the earthquake and ensuing of tsunami of 2004 shifted the earth just the slightest bit on it's axis. And it seems that since that point in 2004, we've seen a changes in seasonal patterns across the globe i.e. shorter cool seasons in tropical/subtropical areas, winters that have seemed to start later and ended later. And it seems like over the past few years, the meat of the seasons have started a bit later and ended later. Is there some sort of correlation?


Most likely not. It is true that the earthquakes move the Earth. Physics will show you that. Technically speaking, you could extrapolate that to say each step you take moves the Earth. The event in '04 wasn't the only event of its kind, which you have to put in mind. It's highly improbable that a movement of an inch or so will be enough to throw off whole seasonal patterns.
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How do u keep a denialist in suspense ?



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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


To get to the numbers Levi (14-16) NOAA (13-20) CSU (18) TSR (17) late August thru October period have to produce more than 10-12 named storms. Let's see what happens.

Hi Tropics! I think we can get 10 storms between August and September, maybe 2 storms in October as well.
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Quoting 189. sar2401:

See, that's what I hate about the rainbow. All that supposed "convection" it shows over Alabama does not exist. There's not even any clouds, let alone rain. I never know what the rainbow is seeing.


I have no idea what it sees either, maybe cooler air aloft? Seems the only precip with rainbow are the very very darkest color...
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215. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting 210. ProphetessofDoom:
So I have a weird question. I am a long-time lurker, not a troll, so this question is not intended to start any sort of unrest. I have heard it said that the earthquake and ensuing of tsunami of 2004 shifted the earth just the slightest bit on it's axis. And it seems that since that point in 2004, we've seen a changes in seasonal patterns across the globe i.e. shorter cool seasons in tropical/subtropical areas, winters that have seemed to start later and ended later. And it seems like over the past few years, the meat of the seasons have started a bit later and ended later. Is there some sort of correlation?


This anomaly in Chandler's Wobble actually corrected itself sometime in 2006.
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Quoting 209. Gearsts:
I still think 14 is the most possible with the stable atlantic and very dry mdr, will be similar to 2012 where we wait for the strong wave to get pass 50w.


Less CV but more homegrown and those are the most dangerous.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14890
For extensive Sat Coverage of the US and GLobal Looks in IR/Vis

Bookmark dis un y'all.

NOAA Geo Sat Coverage


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Meant to say the meat of the Hurricane seasons! :)
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Quoting 210. ProphetessofDoom:
So I have a weird question. I am a long-time lurker, not a troll, so this question is not intended to start any sort of unrest. I have heard it said that the earthquake and ensuing of tsunami of 2004 shifted the earth just the slightest bit on it's axis. And it seems that since that point in 2004, we've seen a changes in seasonal patterns across the globe i.e. shorter cool seasons in tropical/subtropical areas, winters that have seemed to start later and ended later. And it seems like over the past few years, the meat of the seasons have started a bit later and ended later. Is there some sort of correlation?

Welcome to the blog!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
So I have a weird question. I am a long-time lurker, not a troll, so this question is not intended to start any sort of unrest. I have heard it said that the earthquake and ensuing of tsunami of 2004 shifted the earth just the slightest bit on it's axis. And it seems that since that point in 2004, we've seen a changes in seasonal patterns across the globe i.e. shorter cool seasons in tropical/subtropical areas, winters that have seemed to start later and ended later. And it seems like over the past few years, the meat of the seasons have started a bit later and ended later. Is there some sort of correlation?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 203. Tropicsweatherpr:


To get to the numbers Levi (14-16) NOAA (13-20) CSU (18) TSR (17) late August thru October period have to produce more than 10-12 named storms. Let's see what happens.
I still think 14 is the most possible with the stable atlantic and very dry mdr, will be similar to 2012 where we wait for the strong wave to get pass 50w.
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Gil down to 45kts.

EP, 07, 2013080318, , BEST, 0, 153N, 1332W, 45, 1003, TS
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14890
The Human collective is a complicated one.

And now with this ever increasing connectivity, the Hive Mind is not taking the BS from the Fossil Fuel Funded denial machine. Everything around you, now think about this carefully, is from Human thought. Everything save for the Natural World.

Now that we've become all we can be in a way, we have to evolve, or our current way of life,brought about by Human thought, will definitely destroy us all.


Why don't you address the subject of the post. Debunk if it's fraudulent.

First of all, AGW/CLimate Change denialist don't matter, and they NEVER have.

Says you.

People say we can't affect the Planet.

Not me

Well I beg to differ, as we have the complete and Final means of destruction 40,000 times over.

That's the approx number of Nuclear Warheads on the Planet currently.


They go off, there's yer climate change and begging won't help. Fresca?

We must evolve in a Mindful way.

I agree.

Fractures are everywhere, we know things almost in real time that can tip the Balance in a day.

Hold close the thought of evolving.

If not, well, the future is warm, Dim,and short maybe.

Just food for "thought".


You never did address the subject of the post tho.
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Quoting 954FtLCane:

Hey there Nigel, thanks for the info. I'm not sure if any of that moisture from the CA make it here though. We'll keep out fingers crossed. Enjoy your SAL-less afternoon hopefully.

Yeah, hopefully! :)
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Quoting 190. hydrus:
Hey Astro...Its true, thunder does vary in decibels, as lightning varies in power.


Oh, okay, I was starting to worry about Gro for a second. I thought it was just distance relative to bolt.
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If this is what the NHC goes with at 5PM, then Dorian will remain a TD for a little longer, albeit an extremely pathetic one.

AL, 04, 2013080318, , BEST, 0, 312N, 782W, 25, 1013, TD

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Quoting 185. Gearsts:
Late start to the peak?


To get to the numbers Levi (14-16) NOAA (13-20) CSU (18) TSR (17) late August thru October period has to produce more than 10-12 named storms. Let's see what happens.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14890
Quoting 173. Grothar:


Convection firing on the southern part of the depression. hehehehe


Looks like Dorian's LLC is going yo get eaten alive by that system to her NW...yikes........looks like a bat swinging to hit a ball
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Quoting 195. sar2401:

You realize the link to the short Arctic summer this year is an anti-AGW site, right? It was sarcasm, which seems to be hard to get across here lately.


My fault. I jumped the gun. Sarcasm can be difficult to catch in text sometimes. I put your comments and Patrap's comments together and made a bad calculation (1 1=4)

Edit to add: My humor is lost on people quite often as well.
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The rain approached Nashville. Stopped. Took a turn to the SE, and then went around me. -__-

Anyways, here's GOES:

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Quoting 188. wxchaser97:
Short blog update on TD Dorian and TS Gil.

Good update. By the way...wasn't it too cold up here for July during some of the past few days? I am not used to this kind of "summer" weather considering I came from North Carolina....
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Quoting Grothar:
Strong thunder and lightning to our west.


Hi Gro! It seems as if you'll be getting a bit of rain later.
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Quoting 189. sar2401:

See, that's what I hate about the rainbow. All that supposed "convection" it shows over Alabama does not exist. There's not even any clouds, let alone rain. I never know what the rainbow is seeing.


I like the colors. It looks scarier.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
Quoting DocMurphy:


The bad news will end when you realize the "science" upon which you apparently base your joy or sadness is fraudulent at worst, and inaccurate at best. Nature has a way of proving junk science wrong. Science is best when its practitioners accept that being wrong is part of the process and keep searching. When anyone declares that "the science is settled", they are easily dismissed as frauds.

You realize the link to the short Arctic summer this year is an anti-AGW site, right? It was sarcasm, which seems to be hard to get across here lately.
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Quoting 170. sar2401:

He said "approaching 60,000", and the radar image attached to the post had echo tops of 55,000. Not quite 60,000, but still impressive for south Florida.


Never mind, I figured out the issue. Doppler is only picking up the highest echo top and not the cloud top, due to either no precipitation above the listed value or the particles being too small to register a return. :)
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Quoting 170. sar2401:

He said "approaching 60,000", and the radar image attached to the post had echo tops of 55,000. Not quite 60,000, but still impressive for south Florida.



Actually, 61,000 and if you look closely at thunderstorm just to the west of Fort Lauderdale at over 70,000 feet.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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