Dorian Makes a Short-Lived Comeback as a Tropical Depression

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:37 PM GMT on August 03, 2013

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Like an annoying fly buzzing around your head that just won't go away, Dorian is back. Dorian began as a tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa on July 22. Although initially given only a 10% of developing, Dorian surprised forecasters by becoming the 2nd farthest east-forming tropical storm for so early in the year on July 24. Dorian peaked in strength on July 25, when its top winds reached 60 mph. On July 26, Dorian encountered a dryer, more stable atmosphere, and the storm dissipated to a tropical wave on July 27. The remnants of Dorian continued tracking west-northwest, passing north of the Lesser Antilles Islands and into the Bahamas this week. Finally, at 5 AM EDT this Saturday morning, the remnants of Dorian reorganized enough to prompt the National Hurricane Center to upgrade Dorian's remnants to be Tropical Depression Dorian.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Dorian, showing the surface circulation exposed to view as a naked swirl of low clouds, and a modest area of heavy thunderstorms well to the south of the center.

Dorian does not have long to live, due to high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots that has removed all of the storm's heavy thunderstorms far from the center, leaving the surface circulation exposed to view as a naked swirl of low clouds. With wind shear expected to rise even further this weekend, Dorian will likely be dead by Sunday, and get absorbed into the cold front lying off of the Southeast U.S. coast. Dorian is not a threat to any land areas.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone formation over the coming week.


Video 1. With Discovery Channel's Shark Week approaching, Veronica of the web video series, "Fact or Fictional?" talks with me and a marine biologist about sharknadoes. Is it possible for a ferocious tornado to rip through Southern California, raining man eating sharks? My bit starts about halfway through the video.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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Boomers ranging between 45,000 and 60,000 feet, some with hail, across south Florida.
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Here in Deerfield Beach, we just got annihilated by storms
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Don't Quote the obvious

Please.
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NSIDC

While the rate of Arctic sea ice loss is normally fastest during July, the warmest month of the year, ice loss was even faster than usual over the first two weeks of July 2013. As a result, on July 15 extent came within 540,000 square kilometers (208,000 square miles) of that seen in 2012 on the same date. The ice loss is dominated by retreat on the Atlantic side of the Arctic, including the East Greenland, Kara and Laptev seas, and Baffin Bay. In the Beaufort and Chukchi seas and much of the Eurasian coast, the ice cover remains fairly extensive, especially compared to recent summers. Compared to the 1981 to 2010 average, ice extent on July 15, 2013 was 1.06 million square kilometers (409,000 square miles) below average.
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287. beell
Quoting 279. Skyepony:
According to dvorak Dorian's CI is 2.8, 1003.7mb 41.0kts, located 31.14N 78.01W..




Well, heck, let's upgrade to TS.
:)
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Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3685
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Does anyone have the link to the NHC briefing about the Atlantic being quiet till the 16th or so. Thank you
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Quoting 271. Grothar:


Not really, but our neighbor's Doberman did faint when she took him out of the car. They are very gentle animals though.

Anyone else getting these storms? They are really worse than I expected. Right over us'






Yes, I am in West Boca and I got slammed while out with my 1 year old. The lightning was crazy!! The 40 lb winds slammed my car door on my legs while trying to strap my son in his car seat.
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Sea ice is fairing a little better than this time last year.

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Quoting 257. SunriseSteeda:
palm trees shedding their old fronds. One of my fruiting banana trees just gave up and collapsed.

I noticed that the big palm tree right outside my house had all brown palm fronds. I spoke to the arborist who handles things for my development, and he confirmed it was dead. I just had it removed this week, because I didn't want it falling on the house in a bad storm! I think I picked a good time to get rid of it...this afternoon has been pretty nasty. Seemed like constant lightning for half an hour. I still hear thunder. It's down to a drizzle in my lake, at least.
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Miami, FL WFO - Visible Loop
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279. Skyepony (Mod)
According to dvorak Dorian's CI is 2.8, 1003.7mb 41.0kts, located 31.14N 78.01W..


ProphetessofDoom~ I think we in for all of that too..
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There's a Topic ?

O yeah, right...
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Seems as if the worst of the storm has now passed over us, although rumblings of thunder aren't exactly distant yet! we It's still raining here, but we can see across our canal now!

Thanks for your help Skye! I knew that I had heard about some sort of displacement. I guess the Japan earthquake would have made a better reference point! Either way, I still think we're in for a busy later half of tropical season. And more hot, sticky weather!
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276. auburn (Mod)
Quoting 267. Grothar:


They always say heavy winds. I figured these would be about 40 lbs. These storms are pretty bad though.


Hope you dont get heavy rain also... :)sorry back on topic.
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Quoting 274. Grothar:


:)

:D
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Quoting 270. DocMurphy:


That's a daggum lie. I've never heard of a wind weighing more than 35 pounds.


:)
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NEWS RELEASE

Friday, August 2, 2013 – 3:00 p.m.

**** BREEZY AND HAZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND ****


A High Pressure system centred over the Tropical Atlantic is generating strong winds across the Tropical Atlantic and into the Caribbean.

A layer of Saharan dust is also being carried by these winds and is creating hazy conditions across the eastern Caribbean. This should be expected over the western Caribbean on Saturday.

The forecast is, therefore, for strong breezes averaging 45 – 55 km/h (25 – 30 knots) and hazy conditions to affect the island between Saturday and Monday.

A small craft warning has been issued for inshore and offshore waters due to the strong winds and choppy seas in the forecast.
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272. Kumo
Quoting 227. PensacolaDoug:
Why has the arctic been so chill this year? If it's temp was above average, it'd be discussed here daily.


Everything I am still seeing shows that the ocean is still acidifying and glacier flow is still accelerating.

Might just be a freak year, I can remember a year in the early 80's and another one in the early 90's (just after the Mt. Pinatubo eruption) when it was brutally cold. A possible explanation could be this unusually weak solar maximum, according to some solar physicists we may be heading towards a period much like we had during the Maunder Minimum.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maunder_Minimum

We'll have to wait and see. If this turns out to be a trend though, it will be a good thing. It will give us more time for R&D on Carbon Capture and Sequestration and other carbon recycling technologies, so we can be ready when the Sun awakens from it's slumber.
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Quoting 265. goldenpixie1:


Wow! That's one gigantic cat!


Not really, but our neighbor's Doberman did faint when she took him out of the car. They are very gentle animals though.

Anyone else getting these storms? They are really worse than I expected. Right over us'




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Quoting 267. Grothar:


They always say heavy winds. I figured these would be about 40 lbs. These storms are pretty bad though.


That's a daggum lie. I've never heard of a wind weighing more than 35 pounds.
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269. beell
Too bad Avila was not on duty this morning (5AM EDT). Dorian would have never came back from the dead.
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The large dust cloud (Saharan Air Layer or SAL) which came off Africa earlier this week can be clearly seen on satellite imagery.



I wonder how significant of a contribution, if any, large SAL outbreaks have on Oceanic SSTs. I speculate that the SAL has a net cooling effect on SSTs since dust would raise the albedo of the water and these events tend to be associated with stronger trade winds. The blocked sunlight is also something to consider. This would seem to cool SSTs at first, but we have to remember that the SAL is an incredibly dry and stable airmass which means fewer clouds than normal (as noted in the loop above). So, it would seem that SAL outbreaks actually favor more sunlight reaching the surface of the ocean relative to average.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4358
Quoting 263. Astrometeor:


40 lbs of what? Hail?


They always say heavy winds. I figured these would be about 40 lbs. These storms are pretty bad though.
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266. Skyepony (Mod)
Did find this.. I'd forgot.. the Japan earthquake displaced it more than the one in 2004..

March 11, 2011 (updated on March 16): Our first estimates of the megaquake of Honshu, Nothern Japan Coast , at 5:46 UT on polar motion. According to the preliminary US Geological Survey and Harvard University seismic parameters used with Dahlen's dislocation model (1973), the principal axis of inertia with highest moment of inertia (also called figure axis, closed to symetry axis) was displaced by about 15 cm at the earth surface in the direction 135° East (value confirmed by R. Gross, JPL, with another model). The effect is larger than for Chili (February 2010) and Sumatra (Dec. 2004) earthquakes (see below corresponding news). This could be observed as a step in the so-called excitation function, deduced from the determination of pole coordinates by space geodesy. But such a step could be hardly discernible from common hydro-meteorological processes. The oceanic angular momentum still lacking, only next months will tell us wether something is detectable.


C. Bizouard, S. Lambert, D. Gambis, J. Y. Richard, O. Becker. Service International de la Rotation de la Terre & Centre d'Analyse IVS
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Quoting 264. Grothar:


We had a Maine Coon cat here all day. My nurse brought it over.



Wow! That's one gigantic cat!
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Quoting 257. SunriseSteeda:


Well the one that just rolled over me was bad enough where one would wonder if the rotation of am embedded tornado was nearby.

Near constant strikes, maybe an inch of rain 15 minutes (whiteout), palm trees shedding their old fronds. One of my fruiting banana trees just gave up and collapsed. Kittens ran willy-nilly (I have several, you know).

This:



Changes the behavior of these:




We had a Maine Coon cat here all day. My nurse brought it over.

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Quoting 258. Grothar:
I'll be off for awhile. Getting hail and strong thunder and lightning and heavy winds (about 40 lbs)



40 lbs of what? Hail?
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Them 40lbs of winds can hurt one.
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Quoting 258. Grothar:
I'll be off for awhile. Getting hail and strong thunder and lightning and heavy winds (about 40 lbs)



Goodness, 40 lbs IS heavy for wind. Forget umbrellas. Get under a car.
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260. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting 238. ProphetessofDoom:
Thanks so much all! IT does, however, seem like things have been a bit off for the past few seasons. Btw, I'm in West Boca, Florida. We've been listening to the thunder for about 30 minutes, and it just started pouring down rain!Was going sideways for awhile, but has returned to a normal vertical pattern for now!


Started pouring here in Melbourne too.

I looked for that link but I think the site got let go a few years ago. Someone had kept good plots on it at the time.

Looked at out recent Earth Orientations & it seems we are pulling in from that swing wide last year.. I'll leave the graph below.

The late start to winter my guess is, there is less sea ice so it takes longer for the polar vortex to get a hold. As for late spring..one side of the earth that doesn't seem to happen..last spring western side went winter to summer early.. this year it happened in the Eastern Hemisphere. China & such have been having record heat. While we've caught a break.



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... A significant weather advisory is in effect for northeastern
Broward County... southeastern Palm Beach County... for frequent to
excessive lightning and gusty winds of 45 to 55 mph...

* until 330 PM EDT

* at 249 PM EDT... National Weather Service meteorologists detected a
strong thunderstorm near Mission Bay... and moving northeast at 15
mph.

* The storm will affect...
Mission Bay...
Boca west...
Boca Raton equestrian center...
fau south Campus...
villages of Oriole...
Delray Beach...
and surrounding communities.

The primary impacts will be frequent to excessive lightning and gusty
winds of 45 to 55 mph. Lightning is the number one weather related
killer in Florida. Trees and open shelters offer no protection. These
winds can down small tree limbs and branches... and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Lat... Lon 2600 8012 2628 8039 2666 8035 2650 8005
time... Mot... loc 1850z 237deg 14kt 2636 8018



226 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2013
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I'll be off for awhile. Getting hail and strong thunder and lightning and heavy winds (about 40 lbs)

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Quoting 246. Grothar:


How bad are they? I am right in Coral Ridge. It is really getting dark and the sound of strong "thunder" in the distance.


Well the one that just rolled over me was bad enough where one would wonder if the rotation of an embedded tornado was nearby.

Near constant strikes, maybe an inch of rain 15 minutes (whiteout), palm trees shedding their old fronds. One of my fruiting banana trees just gave up and collapsed. Kittens ran willy-nilly (I have several, you know).

This:


Changes the behavior of these:



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COC doesn't look closed to me.
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Quoting 233. midgulfmom:
Good Afternoon! My husband collects rainwater in a barrel to flush the commodes. Not because he has to, just one of the few things he does to conserve and reuse. Anyhow, the water is usually crystal clear but as of this morning, it has a brown tinge to it. Could that be SAL dust? Or is that a crazy thought?
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Quoting 246. Grothar:


How bad are they? I am right in Coral Ridge. It is really getting dark and the sound of strong "thunder" in the distance.


I went to a high school in Baton Rouge that was hit by a tornado during Hurricane Edith in 1971. My math teacher told a story of that day...

One of the students in her math class mentioned that it was awfully dark outside. The teacher asked, "What, are you afraid of the dark?" The student replied, "at 11:00 a.m., yes ma'am."
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Quoting 236. HurricaneHunterJoe:


Thought I heard that the Japan 9.0 from 2011? did the same thing.


Definitely, it even changed the time by a fraction. But, the one in Chile years ago, did the same. At my age, I don't want the days any shorter than they are.
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violent thunderstorm in Boca Raton right now
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Published on Jul 29, 2013

Research scientists provide insights on recent 'unprecedented' melting of Greenland's interior ice sheet.

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Quoting 245. DocMurphy:


Nice touch.


I can't help myself either.
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Quoting 239. IKE:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 3 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DORIAN LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...MOVING AWAY
FROM THE UNITED STATES SOUTHEAST COAST.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS.





As opposed to...

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS LIKE, TOTALLY EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS
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"How the Japan Earthquake Made the Day Shorter The enormous tsunami-spawning earthquake off Japan Friday not only shifted the planet's axis by several inches, it also sped up the Earth's rotation, shortening each day by 1.8 microseconds. Richard Gross, man who calculates these changes at NASA's Jet Propulsion Lab, tells PM how he does it—and why those millionths of a second matter. (Hint: If JPL didn't account for it, Mars rovers would miss their targets.) Read more: Earth Axis Rotational Speed - Japan 8.9 Magnitude Earthquake -

Popular Mechanics Follow us: @PopMech on Twitter

How the Japan Earthquake Made the Day Shorter

Earthquakes can change the Earth's rotation by rearranging the Earth's mass. This is what a spinning ice skater does to make herself spin faster. She moves her arms closer to her body—she's moving her mass closer to the axis about which she's rotating. And earthquakes do the same thing. This earthquake must've moved the mass on average a bit closer to the Earth's rotation axis to make the Earth rotate faster and the length of the day a bit smaller.


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Quoting 243. SunriseSteeda:


I was awakened by this round of house-shaking thunderboomers. Or rather, they awakened the 4 sleeping kittens (with 80 little razor claws) on top of me, and they in turn woke me.

(Northwest Sunrise, near the Sawgrass Expressway)


How bad are they? I am right in Coral Ridge. It is really getting dark and the sound of strong "thunder" in the distance.
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Quoting 244. Grothar:


Are you being sarcastic? :)


Nice touch.
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Quoting 235. DocMurphy:


I have no problem with sarcasm once I know someone's particular bent/bias/philosophy/style. But it takes a while for that to develop, so if I choose to use sarcasm, I point it out with things like "(smile), (grin), (/sarcasm)".

I also have no problem admitting when I'm wrong. It happens so seldom, it generally causes no pain. (smile)


Are you being sarcastic? :)
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Quoting 221. Grothar:
From the Wunderground warning at the top of my page.


A significant weather advisory is in effect for northeastern
Broward County... southeastern Palm Beach County... for frequent to
excessive lightning and gusty winds of 45 to 55 mph...

* until 300 PM EDT... Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.


I was awakened by this round of house-shaking thunderboomers.

Or rather, they awakened the 4 sleeping kittens (with 80 little razor claws) on top of me, and they in turn woke me.

(Northwest Sunrise, near the Sawgrass Expressway)
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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