Dorian Makes a Short-Lived Comeback as a Tropical Depression

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:37 PM GMT on August 03, 2013

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Like an annoying fly buzzing around your head that just won't go away, Dorian is back. Dorian began as a tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa on July 22. Although initially given only a 10% of developing, Dorian surprised forecasters by becoming the 2nd farthest east-forming tropical storm for so early in the year on July 24. Dorian peaked in strength on July 25, when its top winds reached 60 mph. On July 26, Dorian encountered a dryer, more stable atmosphere, and the storm dissipated to a tropical wave on July 27. The remnants of Dorian continued tracking west-northwest, passing north of the Lesser Antilles Islands and into the Bahamas this week. Finally, at 5 AM EDT this Saturday morning, the remnants of Dorian reorganized enough to prompt the National Hurricane Center to upgrade Dorian's remnants to be Tropical Depression Dorian.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Dorian, showing the surface circulation exposed to view as a naked swirl of low clouds, and a modest area of heavy thunderstorms well to the south of the center.

Dorian does not have long to live, due to high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots that has removed all of the storm's heavy thunderstorms far from the center, leaving the surface circulation exposed to view as a naked swirl of low clouds. With wind shear expected to rise even further this weekend, Dorian will likely be dead by Sunday, and get absorbed into the cold front lying off of the Southeast U.S. coast. Dorian is not a threat to any land areas.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone formation over the coming week.


Video 1. With Discovery Channel's Shark Week approaching, Veronica of the web video series, "Fact or Fictional?" talks with me and a marine biologist about sharknadoes. Is it possible for a ferocious tornado to rip through Southern California, raining man eating sharks? My bit starts about halfway through the video.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 330. JLPR2:
This is the farthest north and most active the ITCZ has been in awhile.


Yes and it will continue to become more active and move further N

Quoting 333. mitchelace5:


Thanx. I won't screw up again

Sure no prob and I know you won't screw up again

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Quoting 340. PalmBeachWeather:
Where do you live Mitch?


In Sunrise. In Broward. I take it that you live in Palm Beach?
Member Since: July 27, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 501
Quoting JLPR2:
This is the farthest north and most active the ITCZ has been in awhile.


That's quite a slug of dry air over the rest of the Atlantic though. Going to take something big to moisten that up.
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Quoting 339. mitchelace5:


Thank god we had no flash flooding
Where do you live Mitch?
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Quoting 338. PalmBeachWeather:
A pretty strong thunderstorm just moved through Boynton Beach....Was moving very quickly so it didn't last too long.


Thank god we had no flash flooding
Member Since: July 27, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 501
A pretty strong thunderstorm just moved through Boynton Beach....Was moving very quickly so it didn't last too long.
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As the heat wave in Europe is receding now --- any New Yorkers around to take over, lol?



August 3 (CBS): With the heat wave in its fifth day, New York City's main electric company is working with commercial customers to cut their power use. Some are using their own power generators to reduce their electric demand. Terrell Brown reports.


Another report: Heat wave causes all-time highs in power usage
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 65 Comments: 7136
Quoting TomTaylor:
The large dust cloud (Saharan Air Layer or SAL) which came off Africa earlier this week can be clearly seen on satellite imagery.



I wonder how significant of a contribution, if any, large SAL outbreaks have on Oceanic SSTs. I speculate that the SAL has a net cooling effect on SSTs since dust would raise the albedo of the water and these events tend to be associated with stronger trade winds. The blocked sunlight is also something to consider. This would seem to cool SSTs at first, but we have to remember that the SAL is an incredibly dry and stable airmass which means fewer clouds than normal (as noted in the loop above). So, it would seem that SAL outbreaks actually favor more sunlight reaching the surface of the ocean relative to average.

The SST anomaly is pretty apparent along the path of the SAL, so it seems that it does cool at least the ocean surface temperatures. I suspect the dry and stable air being carried along with the dust is also responsible for the almost complete lack of convection we're seeing in the central Atlantic as well. That study that was just announced about aerosols and making hurricanes less intense may have some bearing, assuming that the dust particles are in the same class as other aerosols.
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For the PR members,here is what the San Juan NWS says about next wave.

AS OF NOW IT LOOKS LIKE WEDNESDAY WILL BE DAY WITH THE BEST
CHANCES OF RAIN AS THE TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES AND THE TUTT LOW
IS TO OUR NORTHWEST...CAUSING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE...THETA-E AT
850 MB...AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15158
Quoting 329. wunderkidcayman:


Hey dude your off of my ignore list now so no more trolling, being arrogant, and nasty as you said you were doing. now I do have to say true trolls don't admit that they are. so welcome back


Thanx. I won't screw up again
Member Since: July 27, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 501
Quoting 314. sar2401:

I'll take all the fall-like weather I can get. It's not fall down here until about the end of hurricane season. :-)

I like the cooler fall weather as well :P But I had to go to an early morning baseball game so I wish it was a little warmer today. The rest of the season it can be fall weather and i'd be happy :)
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Quoting 330. JLPR2:
This is the farthest north and most active the ITCZ has been in awhile.



Just in time for the peak of season.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15158
330. JLPR2
This is the farthest north and most active the ITCZ has been in awhile.

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Quoting 321. mitchelace5:
Hey guys, I just wanted to say that I'm honestly sorry for trolling and being arrogant and nasty. It won't happen again.


Hey dude your off of my ignore list now so no more trolling, being arrogant, and nasty as you said you were doing. now I do have to say true trolls don't admit that they are. so welcome back
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Boomer's inbound, thankfully

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Quoting 318. sar2401:

:Look at Alabama! Unless we get a tropical storm, there's no way we are getting a general 3-4 inches of rain in the next 10 days.


Yeah that's quite a bit over that way. Maybe a stalled front? Training storms? I was just happy to see the Texas part. Doesn't look compatible with a death ridge.
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Quoting 323. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
thats good you are all welcome here


Thanks.
Member Since: July 27, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 501
Someone must have told their friends on xbox live to sign up and cause havoc.I can't...School starts in August for most places right?.
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Quoting 321. mitchelace5:
Hey guys, I just wanted to say that I'm honestly sorry for trolling and being arrogant and nasty. It won't happen again.
thats good you are all welcome here
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Quoting 320. 19N81W:
It's is amazing the impact the sal is having on the Caribbean this year it's dry here and 66% percent humidity in August

It ain't gonna last long
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Hey guys, I just wanted to say that I'm honestly sorry for trolling and being arrogant and nasty. It won't happen again.
Member Since: July 27, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 501
It's is amazing the impact the sal is having on the Caribbean this year it's dry here and 66% percent humidity in August
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<
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Look at Texas! :D


:Look at Alabama! Unless we get a tropical storm, there's no way we are getting a general 3-4 inches of rain in the next 10 days.
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Quoting congaline:

No, winds appear to be from the East.

What city do live in or near? There are a lot of scattered to numerous thunderstorms around south and central FL today but Dorian is not about revive and stage a raid on Florida.
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Look at Texas! :D

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<
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Quoting Doppler22:
I walked around the Gettysburg Battlefield and it was very nice out yesterday... why can't it be like that today? Its very fall like today. I wonder if that means fall is going to be cooler

I'll take all the fall-like weather I can get. It's not fall down here until about the end of hurricane season. :-)
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Quoting 305. wunderkidcayman:


out E conditions are getting better and better as SAL decreases in that area


Member Since: July 27, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 501
Quoting 304. sar2401:

It looks like you are getting sea breeze thunderstorms coming from the west. Is this the direction your storms are coming from? The remnant circulation of Dorian may be enhancing the thunderstorms but it's not moving over Florida, but nothing is moving into the Gulf. This is just some normal summer thunderstorms.

No, winds appear to be from the East.
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Quoting SuperStorm093:
Does anyone have the link to the NHC briefing about the Atlantic being quiet till the 16th or so. Thank you

I never read anything from the NHC saying any such thing. Lots of speculation from other folks, but the NHC normally doesn't make those kind of predictions.

Edit: 20 minutes is not an unusually long time to get a question answered, especially one which doesn't seem to have a foundation in fact. You don't have to post multiple times to get an answer.
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Quoting 306. GetReal:


It seems that TD Dorian did not rank a plotting???

Yep it's that pathetic
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Can anyone answer my question thank you.
Does anyone have a link to the NHC briefing saying most likely the Atlantic will stay quiet till the 16th or so.
Member Since: July 31, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 925
I walked around the Gettysburg Battlefield and it was very nice out yesterday... why can't it be like that today? Its very fall like today. I wonder if that means fall is going to be cooler
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It seems that TD Dorian did not rank a plotting???
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Quoting 303. islander101010:
couple little innocent looking swirls out there 40w 25 n moving west. warmer water downstream


out E conditions are getting better and better as SAL decreases in that area
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Quoting congaline:
We are in a deluge of very heavy rain and lightning here in S Central Fl. Dorian has supposedly left us and headed N. Then what is this storm that remains over the state, is there circulation? If so, when it reaches the gulf we may see something new develop. Any ideas on this?

It looks like you are getting sea breeze thunderstorms coming from the west. Is this the direction your storms are coming from? The remnant circulation of Dorian may be enhancing the thunderstorms but it's not moving over Florida, but nothing is moving into the Gulf. This is just some normal summer thunderstorms.
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couple little innocent looking swirls out there 40w 25 n moving west.
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Bret from 2011 looked like Dorian does now....he survived like that for like a day.
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Quoting 291. Patrap:
Don't Quote the obvious

Please.

This guy is getting too predictable now
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The wu radar controls are still acting up badly.

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We are in a deluge of very heavy rain and lightning here in S Central Fl. Dorian has supposedly left us and headed N. Then what is this storm that remains over the state, is there circulation? If so, when it reaches the gulf we may see something new develop. Any ideas on this?
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Quoting 253. DocMurphy:


I went to a high school in Baton Rouge that was hit by a tornado during Hurricane Edith in 1971. My math teacher told a story of that day...

One of the students in her math class mentioned that it was awfully dark outside. The teacher asked, "What, are you afraid of the dark?" The student replied, "at 11:00 a.m., yes ma'am."


I remember that day, I was in Elementary School, St. Pius X. It really was dark as night, we were pretty scared in second grade. It was raining so hard, it was like someone was pouring water out of wheelbarrows on the windows. We waited in the halls, while they sent all the school buses back to pick up us, and the water was up to the 1st step of the bus in the parking lot. What an adventure. Days like that have given me a strong interest in weather, especially tropical weather.
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Quoting 292. yankees440:
Here in Deerfield Beach, we just got annihilated by storms

Any damage?
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Quoting 279. Skyepony:
According to dvorak Dorian's CI is 2.8, 1003.7mb 41.0kts, located 31.14N 78.01W..


ProphetessofDoom~ I think we in for all of that too..


Huh

Quoting 287. beell:


Well, heck, let's upgrade to TS.
:)

Lol
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Boomers ranging between 45,000 and 60,000 feet, some with hail, across south Florida.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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