Dorian Makes a Short-Lived Comeback as a Tropical Depression

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:37 PM GMT on August 03, 2013

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Like an annoying fly buzzing around your head that just won't go away, Dorian is back. Dorian began as a tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa on July 22. Although initially given only a 10% of developing, Dorian surprised forecasters by becoming the 2nd farthest east-forming tropical storm for so early in the year on July 24. Dorian peaked in strength on July 25, when its top winds reached 60 mph. On July 26, Dorian encountered a dryer, more stable atmosphere, and the storm dissipated to a tropical wave on July 27. The remnants of Dorian continued tracking west-northwest, passing north of the Lesser Antilles Islands and into the Bahamas this week. Finally, at 5 AM EDT this Saturday morning, the remnants of Dorian reorganized enough to prompt the National Hurricane Center to upgrade Dorian's remnants to be Tropical Depression Dorian.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Dorian, showing the surface circulation exposed to view as a naked swirl of low clouds, and a modest area of heavy thunderstorms well to the south of the center.

Dorian does not have long to live, due to high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots that has removed all of the storm's heavy thunderstorms far from the center, leaving the surface circulation exposed to view as a naked swirl of low clouds. With wind shear expected to rise even further this weekend, Dorian will likely be dead by Sunday, and get absorbed into the cold front lying off of the Southeast U.S. coast. Dorian is not a threat to any land areas.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone formation over the coming week.


Video 1. With Discovery Channel's Shark Week approaching, Veronica of the web video series, "Fact or Fictional?" talks with me and a marine biologist about sharknadoes. Is it possible for a ferocious tornado to rip through Southern California, raining man eating sharks? My bit starts about halfway through the video.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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Say bye to Dorian.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DORIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 03 2013

THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR MOST OF THE
DAY...AND IT IS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN IF A CLOSED CIRCULATION
STILL EXISTS. ON THIS BASIS...THE DEPRESSION IS NOW CONSIDERED A
REMNANT LOW. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
ABOUT 15 TO 20 KNOTS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW AHEAD OF AN UPPER
TROUGH. THE LOW COULD STILL DEVELOP INTERMITTENT CONVECTION BEFORE
DISSIPATION IN A DAY OR SO. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM
CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 31.7N 77.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 04/0600Z 33.0N 75.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

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I see there is some Tornado warnings in Colorado... have there been any sightings yet?
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Both waves are healthy looking










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Quoting 357. auburn:


Make a legit name and stick with it..you seem to be good with coming up with new names.
Look at my name. I made it up on a whim 9 years ago when I had no idea what a name can make folks think on a blog. Cosmic Events sounds like something more than it really is, trust me, the derivation goes back to a dog I owned named Cosmic.
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Quoting mitchelace5:


There's still seems to be lots of SAL in the Caribbean at the moment. How long will that take to clear out?

It should be gone by about Wednesday.
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 12 Comments: 8567
Quoting 299. congaline:
We are in a deluge of very heavy rain and lightning here in S Central Fl. Dorian has supposedly left us and headed N. Then what is this storm that remains over the state, is there circulation? If so, when it reaches the gulf we may see something new develop. Any ideas on this?



Nope it has nothing to do with Dorian. It's early August, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are common on a daily basis.

Moisture just ended up higher today than had been forecast. Drier air was forecast to move in but instead the air mass has moistened more so coverage is actually higher than the past few days.
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I see Dorian is still trolling us. Go away Dorian your nothin but a swirl again.
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Our next chance at development might come from all that convection along the ITCZ:

Link
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Quoting 383. wunderkidcayman:

The shear in the Caribbean should clear out soon maybe in about 3-4 days or so


There's still seems to be lots of SAL in the Caribbean at the moment. How long will that take to clear out?
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Quoting 380. TylerStanfield:

Final (and This time I really mean it) Advisory coming soon for Dorian... Going to be a quiet next 7 days as we get ready for the meat of the season to engage.

Sorry to have not been around commenting and chatting away with everyone, but I've been Very busy lately, and haven't had the time to be on my computer. I will be back on the blog more frequently around Mid-Late August.
Member Since: June 2, 2013 Posts: 9 Comments: 1458
Quoting 382. mitchelace5:


Shear doesn't seem to terribly high either: http://abclocal.go.com/ktrk/feature?section=weathe r/hurricane&id=8760068

The shear in the Caribbean should clear out soon maybe in about 3-4 days or so
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Quoting 379. wunderkidcayman:
Wow with each new SAL map that comes out more and more SAL disappears in the Atlantic I suspect that by the time we reach Wed Thur Fri there should be little to no SAL out there


Shear doesn't seem too terribly high either: http://abclocal.go.com/ktrk/feature?section=weathe r/hurricane&id=8760068
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Quoting 354. Patrap:

Final (and This time I really mean it) Advisory coming soon for Dorian... Going to be a quiet next 7 days as we get ready for the meat of the season to engage.
Member Since: June 2, 2013 Posts: 9 Comments: 1458
Wow with each new SAL map that comes out more and more SAL disappears in the Atlantic I suspect that by the time we reach Wed Thur Fri there should be little to no SAL out there
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Quoting 377. Grothar:




Are those like mini-squall lines near Orlando and Sebring? Or am I seeing wrong?
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Quoting VermontStorms:
I think I just accidentally either minused or reported someone! But I can't even figure out which post it was. My computer is in the shop, and I was trying to scroll on the iPad and I hit a button I didn't mean to.

I am sorry!

Not to worry. The last time anyone died from that kind of mistake, the investigation only took a few weeks and the prison term was relatively short. :-)
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375. Kumo
Quoting 325. washingtonian115:
Someone must have told their friends on xbox live to sign up and cause havoc.I can't...School starts in August for most places right?.


Yup. When I played WoW, there was always a surge in 12-year-old scrubs near the beginning and again near the end of summer vacation. The networks ought to start clearing up in a couple of weeks.
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Down here in Southern Miami Dade, last night started with a little lightning, but no rain. Today has been overcast, some more lightning, and finally, its rained a little. Not to bad!
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Quoting 370. PanhandleChuck:


I believe so...... wait till the season starts heating up.

Yep
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Quoting 370. PanhandleChuck:


I believe so...... wait till the season starts heating up.

Uh-oh.
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Quoting 364. auburn:


We all get harassed from time to time..no reason to troll like you have been..Let me know when you come up with a new username so I can remove this one...this is your one and only chance.

Wait how do you know he's not faking it
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Quoting 366. 62901IL:
Is JFV back?


I believe so...... wait till the season starts heating up.
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Just got electric back. My hurricane hiatus had better hold again this because we lose electric and it's not even storming. Winds are at 7 mph. It's a bright sunny 93 degree day. Sigh
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3167
Quoting 365. wunderkidcayman:
TROLL ALERT TROLL ALERT


LOL
I am sorry guys I just had to do that
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Quoting 325. washingtonian115:
Someone must have told their friends on xbox live to sign up and cause havoc.I can't...School starts in August for most places right?.
Yep August 21 for me.Its bittersweet for me though as its my last year.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4467
Is JFV back?
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TROLL ALERT TROLL ALERT
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364. auburn (Mod)
Quoting 359. TERRIBLFORCASTFREEKS:
my deepest apolygies.. but i was harrased alot and got frustrated


We all get harassed from time to time..no reason to troll like you have been..Let me know when you come up with a new username so I can remove this one...this is your one and only chance.
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I think I just accidentally either minused or reported someone! But I can't even figure out which post it was. My computer is in the shop, and I was trying to scroll on the iPad and I hit a button I didn't mean to.

I am sorry!
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Quoting 357. auburn:


Make a legit name and stick with it..you seem to be good with coming up with new names.


Too funny!
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Quoting 357. auburn:


Make a legit name and stick with it..you seem to be good with coming up with new names.
Thinking it would behoove me to stay out of this one...Now I see said the blind man...
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 6001
358. auburn (Mod)
Quoting 357. auburn:



Make a legit name and stick with it..you seem to be good with coming up with new names.


You have almost burned this bridge down..
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357. auburn (Mod)
Quoting 353. TERRIBLFORCASTFREEKS:
because its a very negative username


Make a legit name and stick with it..you seem to be good with coming up with new names.
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Quoting 351. TERRIBLFORCASTFREEKS:
im just very frustrated that there arent any storms


Just wait until later this month, bro.
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Quoting 349. TERRIBLFORCASTFREEKS:
I too would like to say that im deeply sorry for trolling and being a menace... i need to try to change my username can someone help me with that
You have only one post.Why change your name?
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 6001

115
WFUS55 KBOU 032001
TORBOU
COC121-032030-
/O.NEW.KBOU.TO.W.0041.130803T2001Z-130803T2030Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
201 PM MDT SAT AUG 3 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DENVER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO...

* UNTIL 230 PM MDT

* AT 201 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR WOODLIN SCHOOL...OR 32 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
AKRON...AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO
ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS
WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. TREE DAMAGE IS
LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LAST CHANCE...WOODROW...LINDON AND WOODLIN SCHOOL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A
VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND
PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

MOTORISTS SHOULD NOT TAKE SHELTER UNDER HIGHWAY OVERPASSES. IF YOU
CANNOT SAFELY DRIVE AWAY FROM THE TORNADO...AS A LAST RESORT...EITHER
PARK YOUR VEHICLE AND STAY PUT...OR ABANDON YOUR VEHICLE AND LIE DOWN
IN A LOW LYING AREA AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.



LAT...LON 3969 10365 4000 10367 3999 10340 3969 10336
TIME...MOT...LOC 2001Z 007DEG 3KT 3977 10356

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.50IN



COOPER
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Quoting 346. SuperStorm093:
Kinda disappointed the NHC doesn't have anything on the waves in the Atlantic, guess they wont develop cause of the dry air.
They will when the time comes...Pretty smart group of guys and gals there.
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 6001
Quoting 342. mitchelace5:


In Sunrise. In Broward


I'm in Sunrise as well (next to Sandpiper Elementary). The prevailing winds are from the WSW. Of course you could get some briefly easterly winds if there are any rotating cells.
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Kinda disappointed the NHC doesn't have anything on the waves in the Atlantic, guess they wont develop cause of the dry air.
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next tropical wave its more north with a spin to it and less dry air to.
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Quoting 304. sar2401:

It looks like you are getting sea breeze thunderstorms coming from the west. Is this the direction your storms are coming from? The remnant circulation of Dorian may be enhancing the thunderstorms but it's not moving over Florida, but nothing is moving into the Gulf. This is just some normal summer thunderstorms.


Yup yup, Dorian & front-enhanced seabreeze storms marching west to east, as is normal for late afternoon in August.
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Quoting 330. JLPR2:
This is the farthest north and most active the ITCZ has been in awhile.


Yes and it will continue to become more active and move further N

Quoting 333. mitchelace5:


Thanx. I won't screw up again

Sure no prob and I know you won't screw up again

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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