Dorian Makes a Short-Lived Comeback as a Tropical Depression

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:37 PM GMT on August 03, 2013

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Like an annoying fly buzzing around your head that just won't go away, Dorian is back. Dorian began as a tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa on July 22. Although initially given only a 10% of developing, Dorian surprised forecasters by becoming the 2nd farthest east-forming tropical storm for so early in the year on July 24. Dorian peaked in strength on July 25, when its top winds reached 60 mph. On July 26, Dorian encountered a dryer, more stable atmosphere, and the storm dissipated to a tropical wave on July 27. The remnants of Dorian continued tracking west-northwest, passing north of the Lesser Antilles Islands and into the Bahamas this week. Finally, at 5 AM EDT this Saturday morning, the remnants of Dorian reorganized enough to prompt the National Hurricane Center to upgrade Dorian's remnants to be Tropical Depression Dorian.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Dorian, showing the surface circulation exposed to view as a naked swirl of low clouds, and a modest area of heavy thunderstorms well to the south of the center.

Dorian does not have long to live, due to high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots that has removed all of the storm's heavy thunderstorms far from the center, leaving the surface circulation exposed to view as a naked swirl of low clouds. With wind shear expected to rise even further this weekend, Dorian will likely be dead by Sunday, and get absorbed into the cold front lying off of the Southeast U.S. coast. Dorian is not a threat to any land areas.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone formation over the coming week.


Video 1. With Discovery Channel's Shark Week approaching, Veronica of the web video series, "Fact or Fictional?" talks with me and a marine biologist about sharknadoes. Is it possible for a ferocious tornado to rip through Southern California, raining man eating sharks? My bit starts about halfway through the video.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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A majority of the United States has averaged below average temperature-wise since the start of the year. Definitely a welcome change compared to last year.

Globe still a bit warmer than the 1981–2010 average: 0.008°C

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 34194
Well it was short lived, but my prediction came true for once! A storm formed in the first week of August.

Watch him re-form again in a few days :p
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Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 28055
Quoting 532. Patrap:



Earth Atmosphere "2.0" is the new Term for the Atmosphere that has warmed well over 1F Globally and now holds 10% more WV per Cubic meter.

And all the implications that it brings and is being observed Globally.



Thanks, Pat, and now I understand why I missed it.
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..Ride a White mare on the footstep's of dawn, trying to find a Woman whose never, never,..never been born..

GOES Eclipse Schedules

KOZ (KEEP OUT ZONE) / ECLIPSE
The GOES satellites encounter two periods, during the year, in which the satellites are in the Earth's shadow. Known as the Eclipse (ECL) season, these periods require the spacecraft to be totally dependent on onboard batteries for a maximum of 72 minutes daily. Eclipse's occur from about February 28 - April 11 and August 31 - October 13.

GOES-13/14/15 - There is a significant risk of the sun light directly entering the scanners and causing degraded products, as the spacecraft enters and leaves the Earth's shadow, requiring a special algorithm to be applied to the Imager products. In some cases shifting or cancelling the frame is necessary. This is known as the "Stray Light Zone (SLZ)". The seasonal charts describe the GOES-East and GOES-West Imager and Sounder scan frames that are canceled or shifted, due to SLZ.

GOES-12 - The Imager and Sounder instruments are powered down to conserve power, until the daily eclipse is over. There is a significant risk of the sun light directly entering the scanners and damaging the instruments, as the spacecraft enters and leaves the Earth's shadow, requiring the Imager and Sounder to be idle prior to and following eclipse. This is known as the "Keep Out Zone (KOZ)". The seasonal charts describe the GOES-South America Imager and Sounder scan frames that are canceled, due to KOZ/ECL.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 434 Comments: 133393
Quoting 536. Patrap:


Hot, Hades Hot,

Plus all the Boomers missed us Mid-town.



That is the coolest thing, watching that wave of green head to the northshore.
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Quoting 536. Patrap:


Hot, Hades Hot,

Plus all the Boomers missed us Mid-town.

My uncle taught me this saying, "It's not the Sun, it's the Father or the Grandfather." That is when it is just blazing hot! :)
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 9226
Quoting 534. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Uh Oh that wouldn't be good for someone. How's the weather in Honduras, Allan?

How's the weather in NOLA, Pat?


Hot, Hades Hot,

Plus all the Boomers missed us Mid-town.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 434 Comments: 133393
Quoting 528. TropicalBruce:
Hopefully, the trough which is over the eastern U.S. and is forecast to be reinforced late next week will persist through the peak of the hurricane season and keep any storms originating in the Atlantic out at sea.


Not likely with a strong Bermuda high holding firmly across the entire Atlantic
Member Since: July 27, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 501
Quoting 530. allancalderini:
Or maybe she makes a home run and its out and replace.
Uh Oh that wouldn't be good for someone. How's the weather in Honduras, Allan?

Quoting 532. Patrap:



Earth Atmosphere "2.0" is the new Term for the Atmosphere that has warmed well over 1F Globally and now holds 10% more WV per Cubic meter.

And all the implications that it brings and is being observed Globally.
How's the weather in NOLA, Pat?
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 9226
Number of days 90 degrees or higher...

2013


2012
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Quoting 527. moonlightcowboy:


2.0? Ok, I must've missed the memo. Do tell. ;)



Earth Atmosphere "2.0" is the new Term for the Atmosphere that has warmed well over 1F Globally and now holds 10% more WV per Cubic meter.

And all the implications that it brings and is being observed Globally.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 434 Comments: 133393
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Quoting 526. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Dorian will be back in 2019 folks, so will Andrea, Barry, and Chantal...next up to the plate playing center field is Erin will she hit one out of the park or strike out and be back for 2019? We shall see. :D
Or maybe she makes a home run and its out and replace.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4488
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST SAT AUG 3 2013

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN MIAMI FLORIDA IS ISSUING
ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM GIL...LOCATED 1400 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF HILO HAWAII...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPEP2 AND WMO HEADER WTPA32
KNHC. GIL IS EXPECTED TO CROSS 140W INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY MIDDAY MONDAY.

2. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 700 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO
HAWAII CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH NO INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION OBSERVED OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS. CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

$$

EVANS
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Hopefully, the trough which is over the eastern U.S. and is forecast to be reinforced late next week will persist through the peak of the hurricane season and keep any storms originating in the Atlantic out at sea.
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Quoting 523. CosmicEvents:
...unexpected consequence of 2.0.


2.0? Ok, I must've missed the memo. Do tell. ;)
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Quoting 506. washingtonian115:
Dorian is dead and will NOT becoming back..You know what that means...

Dorian will be back in 2019 folks, so will Andrea, Barry, and Chantal...next up to the plate playing center field is Erin will she hit one out of the park or strike out and be back for 2019? We shall see. :D
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 9226
Quoting Doppler22:
NNE WINNETT PETROLEUM MT
HAD 5 WINDOWS AND ALL SKYLIGHTS BROKEN IN HOME BY THE HAIL ALONG WITH 0.62 INCHES OF RAIN

That must have ruined they're day, I feel bad for that home owner


*their
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 434 Comments: 133393
Quoting 504. moonlightcowboy:
Good illustration of the convection quiet/mia ITCZ between 40W and SA. Been like that all season, versus the norm which has more convection. If that goes north there's still not much...it's just not much but farther north.
.
Maybe an unexpected consequence of 2.0.
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Quoting 434. Patrap:

The Lake sure makes some weird radar returns. Haven't seen the north coast lit up like that before. The bridge is always a favorite.
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About to get rough here in Garner/Clayton area.



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Quoting 455. Skyepony:

Cool pic. It's got regrigerator colors.
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Quoting 515. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
big picture



All my life I've been told to look at the big picture. I guess now I understand.
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 434 Comments: 133393
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 434 Comments: 133393
big picture

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 192 Comments: 59083
Quoting 505. mitchelace5:


Isn't the constant train of intense waves in the Atlantic supposed to keep that dust over Africa in check?
should but we are at the end of the dust season you could say but maybe it has other plans all we can do is watch
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 192 Comments: 59083
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 434 Comments: 133393
Quoting mitchelace5:


Isn't the constant train of intense waves in the Atlantic supposed to keep that dust over Africa in check?

There is no constant train of intense storms. It's very difficult for any storms to survive over water for more than a few days because of the dry stable air caused by the dust and the below normal SST's, also caused by the dust. It's not the storms that keep the dust in check, it's the other way round.

If you mean the storms when they are over Africa should keep down the dust, the main dust producing areas had over twice the normal rainfall this year. That's probably one of the reasons we had two early CV storms this year. However, as summer comes and the winds pick up, the soil dries. Through decades of overgrazing and desertification, the soil is just sitting there waiting to get blown away, and one good rainy season only delays the onset of the SAL.
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GOES-East - Southern Region WFO Satellite Imagery

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 434 Comments: 133393
NNE WINNETT PETROLEUM MT
HAD 5 WINDOWS AND ALL SKYLIGHTS BROKEN IN HOME BY THE HAIL ALONG WITH 0.62 INCHES OF RAIN

That must have ruined they're day, I feel bad for that home owner
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Quoting 487. Patrap:
Well, Climate Change is reality so yer kinda off on dat one.


Perhaps! Fresca?
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Quoting jamesrainier:
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
431 PM MDT SAT AUG 3 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DENVER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN WELD COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO...

* UNTIL 515 PM MDT

* AT 430 PM MDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO BRIEFLY TOUCHED DOWN 5 MILES
NORTH OF MILLIKEN...OR 5 MILES WEST OF GREELEY...NEAR HIGHWAY 34
AND 83RD AVENUE. THE STORM WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH. THIS
STORM COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL TORNADOES AT ANY TIME.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO
ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS
WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. TREE DAMAGE IS
LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GREELEY...EVANS...MILLIKEN...PLATTEVILLE...LA SALLE...KERSEY...
GILCREST AND LUCERNE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND.

My son used to live outside Greeley. I swear, there is a tornado watch or tornado warning almost every day in the spring and summer in Weld County. The only reason why anything is still left standing is it's a big county and the vast majority of it is pasture land. Still, Greeley has been growing very fast over the last 20 years, and it's just a matter of time until we have another Joplin type situation there.
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Someone asked about Lake Okeechobee. I just wanted to share that the lake water is very high and that they are letting water out by opening locks. The earthen dikes that keep the water in the lake are not considered very dependable. I recently drove around the lake and it is high and there is flooding in some places near the lake. They really do have to let the water out. Since I live on the west side of Lake O - actually near the GOM, I know that the water is coming down the Caloosahatchee River (toward Ft. Myers)and is causing the gulf waters to become brown and kind of murky. I think this comes from tannic acid. It is causing lots of very small stinging jellyfish and generally not a good situation. They say the water is not dangerous (other than stinging jellyfish), but is looks terrible. Would rather see the blue water. This has happened before. I think they are also letting water out toward the east side of the lake, too. That's what I know! And, it is raining here - Bonita Springs.
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Dorian is dead and will NOT becoming back..You know what that means...

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Quoting 503. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
scanning sat looks like another blast of dust setting it sights on atlantic looks to be building too so may get bigger yet

intense pink colour area is dev dust storm



Isn't the constant train of intense waves in the Atlantic supposed to keep that dust over Africa in check?
Member Since: July 27, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 501
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scanning sat looks like another blast of dust setting it sights on atlantic looks to be building too so may get bigger yet

intense pink colour area is dev dust storm

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 192 Comments: 59083
new tropical wave to watch here
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Quoting 499. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
nice shelf


Thanks,

Had to drive thru torrential rains to get back to Orlando, but when I got here, just light drizzle and cloudy.
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GOES-East Miami, FL WFO Imagery


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 434 Comments: 133393
Quoting 497. HurricaneDevo:


Another one, a little blurred by rain.
nice shelf
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 192 Comments: 59083
Quoting 481. moonlightcowboy:
Keep, what's next? We looking at maybe 8n,48w perhaps?


got to wait till the itcz chases the dust out maybe a week and a bit
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 192 Comments: 59083


Another one, a little blurred by rain.
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Quoting 491. Patrap:
No Luck, every Boomer Missed us in Mid-City.


Better luck next time...
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Good Evening to everyone hope yall had a good day. The ITCZ is starting to become active now that a couple TWs are promoting it to lift and activate around 8N.



You can see the SAL diminishing in Eastern and Central Atlantic east of 50W By late next week conditions should start to become more conducive for development.



Wind shear is still high in the Caribbean but is slowly starting to drop across the MDR thanks to the latent heat of the convection embedded within the ITCZ.



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there it is. Picture of Dorian? clouds off Cape Canaveral about 5:00 pm
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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